PDA

View Full Version : THAT ANGLE


bugboy
01-22-2017, 12:53 PM
heres that angle again.....gps r1 #4

last race eased walked off

next race after 30 days....won pd 169.80

NorCalGreg
01-22-2017, 01:13 PM
heres that angle again.....gps r1 #4

last race eased walked off

next race after 30 days....won pd 169.80

The first time someone mentioned that "eased last" angle...it sounded a little ridiculous. But I started to notice it happening...more and more.

Amazing. It used to be..a horse was eased up and walked off---he was done for awhile..maybe never the same, if he was any good to begin with.

Nowadays I believe it has much merit--the reason the horse was eased? Who cares?

thaskalos
01-22-2017, 02:58 PM
I think that I might have been the first one to talk about this angle here...but it wasn't my own creation. It was revealed to me by the most successful horseplayer that I've ever met.

I too laughed when I first heard it...but I've stopped laughing a long time ago.

NorCalGreg
01-22-2017, 03:06 PM
I think that I might have been the first one to talk about this angle here...but it wasn't my own creation. It was revealed to me by the most successful horseplayer that I've ever met.

I too laughed when I first heard it...but I've stopped laughing a long time ago.

I knew it was you thask--I remember it well..and thinking to myself "this guy's a professional horseplayer?"

thaskalos
01-22-2017, 03:43 PM
I knew it was you thask--I remember it well..and thinking to myself "this guy's a professional horseplayer?"

Truth be told...you are not the only one who asked himself that question. :)

JustRalph
01-22-2017, 04:12 PM
The forty knot headwind in the stretch I think had more to do with it than anything else.

parlay
01-22-2017, 09:16 PM
It is known as betting the "fall down" horse. Started playing this angle 20 odd years ago.I bet the race, DIDN'T BET THE ANGLE :bang: :bang: :bang:

AltonKelsey
01-23-2017, 02:12 PM
It's an old angle, but clearly not one that's overplayed. Too hard to bet for serious money unless you're an insider. Or very brave.


It's all about how much people are prepared to actually bet, not talk.

That $90 winner the other day was given as a top play by Thorograph (paid) AND Matties (free online analysis).

So we have to assume there wasn't too much in the way of serious betting despite the public tout. If everyone that saw the pick's bet $10 , it wouldn't have payed $90

Prof.Factor
02-02-2017, 08:45 PM
Beautiful Music pulled up and walked off 12-30-2016 at DED at 23-1.
Won the 5th race tonight @ DED at 8-1.
Guess people are getting hip.

NorCalGreg
02-02-2017, 09:21 PM
Beautiful Music pulled up and walked off 12-30-2016 at DED at 23-1.
Won the 5th race tonight @ DED at 8-1.
Guess people are getting hip.

I imagine there's a big difference in win%/ROI if the horse walked off--as opposed to vanned off.

I'm seriously thinking of programming a spot play--not as an auto-bet, but just as an alert to this situation - when it arises.

thaskalos
02-02-2017, 09:32 PM
I imagine there's a big difference in win%/ROI if the horse walked off--as opposed to vanned off.

I'm seriously thinking of programming a spot play--not as an auto-bet, but just as an alert to this situation - when it arises.

When a horse is "vanned off"...then, a larger-than-normal wager is due next out...IMO.

johnhannibalsmith
02-02-2017, 10:02 PM
I used to see the meat wagon hit the track and if I had any doubt what had happened, I'd sprint down to the golf cart to follow them back to the barn to watch him unload and cool out from afar. Not only can you get a nice price on some horses, you can get a nice horse on the cheap. Just make sure you are claiming for yourself.

no breathalyzer
02-03-2017, 12:14 AM
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=5335951&registry=T&rbt=TB

this horse won 4 straight after being vanned off... remember it like it was yesterday

cato
02-03-2017, 01:55 PM
Hard to play that angle at Delta - a lotta hosses are vanned and walked or otherwise helped off the track!

Immortal6
02-03-2017, 05:19 PM
THAT ANGLE almost hit at GP 9 today! :4: walked off in last, going off 70-1 lost by a nose, had a $2 WPS $46 place $16 show.

johnhannibalsmith
02-03-2017, 05:58 PM
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=5335951&registry=T&rbt=TB

this horse won 4 straight after being vanned off... remember it like it was yesterday

Likewise, one of my best days ever... like yesterday... DNF, vanned off, claimed, came back and won at around 2-1 off a much, much higher morning line (I believe), then won two more of her next three.

Elegant Magic AKA Maggie! (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=4042310&registry=T&rbt=TB)


Edited because I just realized maybe we both remember it like yesterday because the two races were a month apart. :D

NorCalGreg
02-05-2017, 10:33 AM
2 horses running at AQ with THAT angle--both in the 9th race today
.

NorCalGreg
02-06-2017, 06:29 AM
Here's my contribution to THAT angle: Consider only horses back to the races within 35 days---showing workouts in that time.
Horses eased up and on the shelf for months afterward--probably don't fit the spirit of the angle.

johnhenry81
02-06-2017, 08:22 AM
Notice that was a nw2L at AQU. Seems more and more nw2L claiming races being carded. Anyone have/willing to share stats on how many claiming races are carded at nw2L vs. all others ? I remember the time where the major's ie NY, So cal. circuits didnt even card them.


thanks
jh

johnhannibalsmith
02-06-2017, 09:34 AM
Here's my contribution to THAT angle: Consider only horses back to the races within 35 days---showing workouts in that time.
Horses eased up and on the shelf for months afterward--probably don't fit the spirit of the angle.

I think you'll find that it will be tough to exclude too many as most jurisdictions will require at least one workout in front of the vet to be taken off the vet list for being vanned off and likewise you can't go too long without a race or work before you must have at least one to enter. Some places is thirty days, some forty-five, some two in sixty... kind of depends, but I think with both of those rules in place it can't be too easy to find many exclusions without works in 30+ days off of a pulled up/vanned off.

FakeNameChanged
02-10-2017, 12:06 PM
Horse gets taken up right after the break in distress and gets vanned off. Still a play if he returns in 30 days? Seems like that would be more difficult to "fake it."

sammy the sage
02-11-2017, 07:53 AM
2nd race S.A. today...take a look at...before it runs...

Secondbest
02-11-2017, 04:21 PM
2nd race S.A. today...take a look at...before it runs...
Won 16.80

sammy the sage
02-12-2017, 09:02 AM
can you say "Deja Vu"

Before the race...try looking at today's 4th at S.A...stakes...seems outclassed...BBBuuuuttttttt.........

DeltaLover
02-12-2017, 12:02 PM
In this gist you can see the performance of an array of "troubled trip" comments applied to a universe of approximately 10K races:

https://gist.github.com/deltalover/da13504ee1c504cc7402b3d4c4a4ae44

The ROI of a horse having the keyword "van" (including vanned) appears to be very low: 0.0 when combined with a layoff (over 35 days) and 0.58 for no layoffs.

The fact that this angle produces some very long priced winners from time to time, simply confirms the fact that all the horses in race have some probability to win but in the long run these "black swains" represent very bad betting options.

Alwaysonpoint36
02-12-2017, 04:31 PM
aqu r8, :2: fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer :D

NorCalGreg
02-12-2017, 04:38 PM
In this gist you can see the performance of an array of "troubled trip" comments applied to a universe of approximately 10K races:

https://gist.github.com/deltalover/da13504ee1c504cc7402b3d4c4a4ae44

The ROI of a horse having the keyword "van" (including vanned) appears to be very low: 0.0 when combined with a layoff (over 35 days) and 0.58 for no layoffs.

The fact that this angle produces some very long priced winners from time to time, simply confirms the fact that all the horses in race have some probability to win but in the long run these "black swains" represent very bad betting options.

You're no fun. :D Did you try the term "walked off" and no layoff?

I would have thought "wide--no layoff" would have a higher IV.

Secondbest
02-12-2017, 05:24 PM
aqu r8, :2: fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer :D
31.00 to win
At Sa horse stopped.

Prof.Factor
02-12-2017, 06:35 PM
Oaklawn's last race today, second time starter KATHY'S DAY RATE ran 2nd @ 24-1. Her one and only other race was "pulled-up, walked-off".
Nailed the $400 exacta!

FakeNameChanged
02-12-2017, 10:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36
aqu r8, fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer

31.00 to win
At Sa horse stopped.

The Aq horse was laid off 5+ months, does not qualify on 30 day rule.

SA horse also not qualified, Bobbled at start, eased. No walk off or vanned off.
However, the #2 Cousin Tino in 6th race at GP did qualify, was taken back at the start and finished 6th by almost 5 BL's. Maybe worth another look if he comes right back.

cnollfan
02-13-2017, 01:00 AM
Blue Azul in the 7th at OP Sunday embodied the spirit, if not the letter of the law. "Pulled up, vanned off" Nov. 16 at Dmr.

Threatening move while wide on the far turn.

FakeNameChanged
02-28-2017, 04:06 PM
Both parts of entry in 5th race at FG today(2/28) had the angle. The 1-Legallini, pulled up at 7/8 and walked off on Feb 11. The 1A-Signalpath was eased and vanned off on Jan. 20 which was 38 days ago. But 1A worked out twice since being vanned off. And the 1-Legallini also worked out Feb 19th when his entry-mate had one. The 1A ran second for 13.00 Place-7.20 show. The exacta with a 3-1 horse paid 122.00.
Joe Sharp, the trainer is someone to watch it seems.

cnollfan
03-01-2017, 03:08 PM
Joe Sharp a/k/a Mr. Rosie Napravnik.

Parkview_Pirate
03-05-2017, 04:51 PM
10th at GP today - #7, Diamond Mint - second by a short head at 42-1, $31.80 to place.

Last race, on 2 February - "dueled, eased, walked off" at 23-1, dnf

Just outside the 30 day "rule", if one adheres to it precisely.

jk3521
03-06-2017, 03:38 PM
Mahoning Valley Race :8:, today #:3: Seeking A Trainer. Pulled up, walked off, 02/18/17. Not being played in the late double.

jk3521
03-06-2017, 04:13 PM
Mahoning Valley Race :8:, today #:3: Seeking A Trainer. Pulled up, walked off, 02/18/17. Not being played in the late double.

No dice.

Dahoss2002
03-18-2017, 04:43 PM
Lukas got one in 6th at OP today Horse fly. Post in about 5 minutes

sammy the sage
05-29-2017, 08:32 AM
get out race today...(thanks Vets):ThmbUp:....9th at S.A....look at the 10 horse...;)

NorCalGreg
06-12-2017, 05:39 AM
This one's a little unusual:

KidCruz
06-12-2017, 07:04 AM
This one's a little unusual:

It's a jumper and they have a circus-like circuit that travels throughout the Eastern part of the country.

NorCalGreg
06-12-2017, 07:15 AM
It's a jumper and they have a circus-like circuit that travels throughout the Eastern part of the country.

AHHH...figured it had to be something like that

delayjf
08-06-2017, 08:48 PM
Saratoga 7th race today,

Holding Aces - Pulled up and vanned off in his last race at Delaware Park, ships to Saratoga and wins paying 43.00, amazing.

dansan
08-06-2017, 11:34 PM
40-60 days away 22%not a bad angle either

sammy the sage
05-03-2019, 08:02 PM
Wow...today....at the Oaks...no speed duel....gone...after that last race....just wow again...as THE Angle strikes again....

Didn't have a dime down today....good thing too...