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PowerUpPaynter
01-22-2017, 11:50 AM
Good day,

Seems like there is not too much derby buzz this year. At least on this forum. Is there another place people are talking derby? Looking back at last year and previous years way more threads in this triple crown sub forum by this date. Maybe just the Trump effect with more people being wrapped up in Trump related news like how the NFL ratings are suffering and cable news' ratings are thru the roof.

Love talking derby, was just thinking....

Raider
01-22-2017, 03:06 PM
I have been thinking the same thing, Maybe the triple crown high was worn off. I think this is more likely, since this is the fifth year the point system,and the past four have been won by the favorite, until the 50 point races start there is not too much to talk about. The trainers have seem to adopted a strategy of running later. The need of $ to get in to the derby has been replaced by a win and in your in system,

So far no stand out horses, none with a sexy name, maybe this is the year the longshot wins, or the trend of the chalk will continue.

For me the fever starts in January and I am applying what I learned last year to this year. I have been tracking all of the horses with Buckpasser in the X passing potion.

So far this year, 25% of the entrants in the us 10 pt races have it. Now its wait and see who makes it to the next round.

Until a horse gets at least 20 points, why bother looking at them?

What is the best way to use the point system in handicapping?

Stoleitbreezing
01-22-2017, 03:51 PM
I have been thinking the same thing, Maybe the triple crown high was worn off. I think this is more likely, since this is the fifth year the point system,and the past four have been won by the favorite, until the 50 point races start there is not too much to talk about. The trainers have seem to adopted a strategy of running later. The need of $ to get in to the derby has been replaced by a win and in your in system,

So far no stand out horses, none with a sexy name, maybe this is the year the longshot wins, or the trend of the chalk will continue.

For me the fever starts in January and I am applying what I learned last year to this year. I have been tracking all of the horses with Buckpasser in the X passing potion.

So far this year, 25% of the entrants in the us 10 pt races have it. Now its wait and see who makes it to the next round.

Until a horse gets at least 20 points, why bother looking at them?

What is the best way to use the point system in handicapping?

I agree with most of what was said here. I would also add that the Fairgrounds EH1 issue has put a damper on the recently run LeComte and making that race and other upcoming LA prep races less appealing without horses shipping in.

Most trainers perfer to start their horses later in the prep season to avoid peaking before derby day. Its frustrating to see only 1 or 2 starts to make an assessment.

When a longshot takes the derby again the interest will come back. The derby bet futures will get a big boost next year if this is the year the Longshot comes in.

PowerUpPaynter
01-22-2017, 07:46 PM
the points system really needs some tweaking. The 10 point races should be 25 which would force the hand of trainers to run the top prospects earlier.

Bennie
01-22-2017, 08:04 PM
things should start picking up in 2 weeks when we have 4 races on the 4th that are point scoring. We should finally get some top prospects running head to head.

PowerUpPaynter
01-29-2017, 08:07 PM
Pool 2 closes at roughly half the total win pool from pool 2 last year...

Spalding No!
02-01-2017, 06:44 PM
An utter embarrassment at Santa Anita. The Robert Lewis Stakes drew all of 3 nominations at closing. All 3 horses had previously started for claiming tags and all 3 are entered to race in an optional claimer on Thursday.

When the entries came out, the race drew 5 horses. 3 trained by Doug O'Neill, one of whom is a maiden (albeit Grade 1 placed). The other two are recent maiden breakers trained by John Shirreffs and Jerry Hollendorfer.

Santa Anita really needs to rethink their stakes schedule.

PowerUpPaynter
02-01-2017, 08:34 PM
the pts system is a disaster. these races only worth 10 pts is a joke. should be 25-12-6-3 or something. whats the incentive to run now?

Lemon Drop Husker
02-01-2017, 09:41 PM
the pts system is a disaster. these races only worth 10 pts is a joke. should be 25-12-6-3 or something. whats the incentive to run now?

I can see both sides.

Do we keep the points, like they currently are, towards the bigger, longer, and more important races that line up with rolling a 3YO horse for a peak effort in the Derby? Sure. Makes sense.

Or.

Do we tweak the points so the earlier, shorter, back in the day more historically relevant races get more credence than the paltry points they receive now?

The problem we've seen in the first 3 years of the points system is an extreme lack of pace, or at least front-running type horses. Where are the blistering fractions of 44: and change?

Now? We get the logical horses romping on or near the front end without a care in the world. They are the fastest of the fastest and don't have to worry about traffic.

Depends on what you want. Logical, maybe even deserving winners, or chaos?

From a wagering standpoint, I know which side I sit on. :cool:

Raider
02-02-2017, 10:01 AM
If you have a horse that you think can do it, why bother race in a 10PT race? You have two chances with the win and your in races. I think this years winner has only run in one, or will run in only one, 10pt, and might not have won it. The real fun will start with the 50 points, to weed out the weaker of the crop. Unless a horse has 30pts. I won't look at them, waste of time.

going with the trend,