HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 1/22

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in All 10 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections from the static tote analysis to follow.

[ebcorde]

https://beta.racingpost.com/racecards/416/sha-tin/2017-01-22/667811 (http://beta.racingpost.com/racecards/416/sha-tin/2017-01-22/667811)


https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/Sha-Tin_92370/The-Hong-Kong-Classic-Mile_533307/#FullForm (http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/Sha-Tin_92370/The-Hong-Kong-Classic-Mile_533307/#FullForm)

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #4
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds produce a Profit Margin over 50%.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) Turf …....1-6 w/ 8-2-7-10 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1400M (7F) Turf........2-1 w/ 5-13-9-12 …..12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1400M (6F) Turf.........8-6 w/ 2-12-1-3…....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #9– Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf ….....3-4 w/ 7-2-10-1….…1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1400M (7F) Turf ….....3-2 w/ 10-5-13-7…...2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #11– Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1000M (5F) Turf........6-2 w/ 7-13-14-3 .…...2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1– Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1800M (9F) Turf ….....2-1 w/ 8-7-4-9...........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) Turf........1-2 w/ 7-10-11-5 …....3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3– Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1600M (8F) Turf........1-2 w/ 3-13-5-11……..4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf......9-3 w/ 5-6-2-1..............4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7– Watch Live tote activity)

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Get. It. Done. Nitro.

[Nitro]

Get. It. Done. Nitro.
Thanks LDHusker!

I'm expecting some nice returns this morning.

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget!

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Thanks LDHusker!

I'm expecting some nice returns this morning.

I've been very critical of you and your work.

My many apologies.

[Nitro]

I've been very critical of you and your work.

My many apologies.
Hey forget it! I've taken my fair share around here just like a lot of others.

It's all in good fun. (I hope!)

My bottom line is making some money and maybe sharing some good info with others who would like to do the same.

GL and thanks!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Hey forget it! I've taken my fair share around here just like a lot of others.

It's all in good fun. (I hope!)

My bottom line is making some money and maybe sharing some good info with others who would like to do the same.

GL and thanks!


Thank you.

And yes, we are all in for the end game.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:8: looked good, but at 2/1 was a no bet

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-6 w/ 8-2-7-10
Live Tote Results: 6-3-8-1 – Dutch Pass – 34% margin
2nd choice $10.70 Early & Live

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What happened to the 5?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I like the :2::6:

In R2

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Nitro? You around?

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2-1 w/ 5-13-9-12
Live Tote Results: 1-4-3-9 - Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin
2nd choice $4.70 Early & Top choice Live & $22.10 QUIN w/#4 (6th choice Live Sub)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:2::3::6::10:

I like the :10:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 8-6 w/ 2-12-1-3 -
Live Tote Results: 9-5-10-6 – Dutch Out
Out Early & Live – both "Tote Watch" choices made the Quin – I only used #5

[Nitro]

R#4 - 3-4 w/ 7-2-10-1 – All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 7-3-10-4 – Dutch Pass 23% margin
3rd choice $6.20 Early & Top choice Live & $12.40 Quin / $245.00 Tri

[Nitro]

R#5 - 3-2 w/ 10-5-13-7
Live Tote Results: 4-10-1-13 – Dutch Out
Out Early & Live – A BIG Bomb (140/1) takes it! :eek:

[Nitro]

R#6 - 6-2 w/ 7-13-14-3 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 14-6-13-4 – Live Dutch Win 78% Profit Margin
5th choice $12.90 Early & 3rd choice Live & $20.40 QUIN / $234.60 TRI

[Nitro]

R#7 - 2-1 w/ 8-7-4-9
Live Tote Results: 14-9-6-13 – Live Dutch Pass 23% margin
Out Early & 2nd choice $3.40 (Tote Watch) Live & $33.50 QUIN
(Winner had solid tote action throughout)

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-2 w/ 7-10-11-5
Live Tote Results: 3-7-4-1 – Dutch Pass 28% margin
Out Early & 6th choice $69.50 (Tote Watch) Live & $93.00 QUIN w/Top Live choice
(Both Winner & Placer got lots of early tote W/P and Quinella action)

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 w/ 3-13-5-11 - – All of the HK GR1 Classic Mile!
Live Tote Results: 1-13-2-9 – Dutch Pass 39% margin
Top choice $4.20 Early & Live – $31.90 QUIN / $222.20 TRI

[Nitro]

R#10 - 9-3 w/ 5-6-2-1 –
Live Tote Results: 12-10-13-9 – Dutch Out
Out Early & Live - An All LS finish with Huge vertical prices! :eek: