Make the right bet

[dav4463]

It is so important to make the right bet. Why then in the real life situation at the track do I occasionally freeze up and bet stupid ? If my top pick has been showing a profit at 5-2 and up, second pick at 4-1 and up, and third pick at 8-1+. Why then, when I look at a race can't I stick with my plan and bet that third pick at 22-1 and also key him on top of the trifecta? No, I bet the 22-1 to win, but only for $10 and then put the even money favorite on top of my trifecta because he is my top choice and miss out on a huge trifecta.....when I KNOW my top pick at less than 5-2 is unprofitable. Why did I even feel I needed to play the trifecta? Why not put it all to win on the 22-1 shot ? I started outthinking myself...just because I wanted to cash a trifecta IF my longshot didn't get the job done...and I paid for it !

[InsideThePylons-MW]

dav,

The ability to wager in a manner to extract the most money possible from a correct opinion is what separates the men from the boys. Spend more time thinking about the proper bet for your opinion cause that is where the problem is. At least you knew what the right thing to do was even though you didn't do it and eventually you have a chance to right the ship unlike others.

[charleslanger]

This is my humble opinion-- when you do play a longshot, & for the total amount you likely bet on the race, go for the kill and forego backing up-- or only back up with the 8-1 choice, and always bypass in this particular case the least-prized candidate.

And in order to confirm that this ploy would be suitable to you personally:

before the race went off and you were playing out possible scenarios in your head, how would you have answered this:

i am happy betting in this manner:

1. I'm a frugal person, i don't' want my passions / hobbies to cost me too much, so: i would like to spread to two horses and use exotics to back up a win bet for a better chance to cash something in exchange for not going for the hard-to-get grand prize... and if that grand price comes in so be it-- i will cash more often this way, experience less runouts, and slowly / gradually build up my bankroll.... and anyhow, i don't have the bankroll to go for the big prizes / catch all possible combos.

2. what i'm investing is disposable income: i'm willing to stand longer losing streaks in exchange for a chance at signers..... so:

forget the favorite, and/or only bet the higher-priced combos(meaning if playing favorite-- only underneath, not on top).

And even if you're a #1-type person, you could still make an exception when in longshot territory, and stick to your normal routine for lesser prices.

Just a thought..... best wishes.
.

[dav4463]

Great replies. The fact is...it was the last race I was playing, and in the back of my mind, I'm thinking.... I want to cash on this race even though I really like this 22-1 shot.... I did cash on it, but not nearly the windfall I could have had !

[Hosshead]

Dave, Some thoughts. First, you've got 2 things going here.
1. Win bets and Exotic bets. Have a plan for each, and don't let one influence the other (in your mind) Have a separate bankroll for each?

2. Have your plan made before the race comes up, and stick to it. (I know, easier said than done) Even though you don't know the actual live odds before the race, have an "if\or" odds plan for your selection. Also, if it's at all possible to "re-look" at the ML odds of your past picks db, you might be able to build a plan around ML odds. Check your past pick results and their ML odds. If profitable, it would do away with last minute second guessing.

3. The situation you described is often caused by being caught up in the psychology of "The Moment".
Longshots especially, don't have a lot of "moments" (win%)
And under the pressure of the "Now", it's easy to pull away from those bets, rather than staying around and betting for the "big picture". The mind doesn't equate the "big picture" and "the Moment" very well.
Some successful players escape this quandry by betting way before the race goes off, or from home instead of the track.

But the important thing is, You DID bet the 22/1 shot to win !
Sounds like you just slipped a little and mixed the exotic thoughts with the win thoughts. Just make sure your % of bankroll will cover the losing streaks associated with longshot key horses. Whether exotic Or Win. -- Hoss

[hurrikane]

Interesting dave. I"m sure we've all been there.

I would agree with hosshead on this one. Keep your exotics and win bets seperate. Do not let them influence each other. They are two different animals.

Frankly, I seldom play an exotic that I can't eliminate a short price horse from the 1 hole. Just not profitable....for me anyway. So I would have taken the 22-1 and 8-1 and played them in the 1 slot and structured the rest of the ticket around that. But that's just me.

It's a bitch when you win and you don't feel like you won. The game is hard enough without riding on that merry-go-round

[CapperLou]

Hosshead & Hurricane have it rigth here!! Keep a seperate bankroll for exotics and win plays.

Hurricane has it right about throwing out the favorite--if you can-go ahead and play your exotic--be it exacta or tri--then you are getting value.

Generally, the only or few times I play an exacta is where I have to good priced horses and can eliminate the favorite. When they come in--I'm getting "boxcar" payoffs--and of course this bankroll stands on its own.

ALWAYS take your longshot and bet it to win before you do anything else--no matter what race or time of day it is!!

Hope this helps and good luck!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[JimG]

David,

Some great advice here. You described in your initial post, playing a race "not to lose" rather than playing a race "to win". We have all been there. It is an individual decision, but you have to decide when you have an opinion whether to play the race to win, or cover the race from different angles so as not to lose. If the favorite would have won and you hit the trifecta, you would have not posted the above and felt good about hedging your longshot bet. I suspect you have hit many times betting in this manner, as have I when my longshot runs second or third.

Hindsight as we all know is 20/20. Don't beat yourself up over the decision. Just decide if you are playing to win or "not to lose" a particular race, and bet accordingly.

Jim

[bettheoverlay]

Horseplayers expend way too much mental energy in self flaggelation in the woulda, shoulda, coulda after a race. Expend this energy in the next race, its a finite source. If you had bet the longshot on top and the favorite won, would you have felt the same? Remember its not an exact science, its mostly random, you can only bet on how you feel before the race, not after.

And winning on a 22-1 shot should make you happy, that's what they're there for.

[Blackgold]

You can also forget about trying to make the "right" bet and concentrate on eliminating the "bad" bets.

Sure you've spent time working on a race or an entire card and you feel like you've got to take a shot somewhere.

Take a step back for a moment. Don't look at the form. Let that little voice inside of you tell you. . . are you in for the action or do you see the race clearly?

If you see the race clearly your body takes you to the window with both fists extended.

If you don't see the race clearly, you wobble to the window still trying to make up your mind. And if you still have to bet, then bet $2 to win and $1 boxes. . .lunch money, and save your big guns for when you KNOW you have to get the bet down.

One trick I use for myself is the "Would I call Sal" method. My buddy Sal lives over 1,000 miles away and we've had many a handicapping exercusions. If I don't feel like I'm so high on a race that I want to call Sal and say, you gotta see this. . .then I bet real small or pass.

Good Luck!

[Myhorse1_X]

Dav4463:

I have found that playing exotics will pay off if the bet is small and the chances of winning is great (An ideal situation of course)

I play an exotic this way: Using my top 4 horses

1,2 with 3,4 for a $2.00 exacta

3,4 with 1,2 for a $2.00 exacta.

1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,5 for a $1.00 trifecta.

The theory being that if your two lowest odds horses come in 1 and 2 (assuming that your top two picks are the lowest odds)you got a shot at the trifecta. The whole bet is around $22.00 and you got a lot of connections covered.

This method was used for people that go to the track and do no handicapping at all. Using the lowest odds horses for 1 and 2 and the next two lowest odds for 3,4,5 you can see that the chances of hitting a winning ticket is pretty strong. Of course you must be aware of the payoffs for these conbinations and don't let your picks pay less than the amount bet.

MyHorse1

[CapperLou]

Great and insightful advice in both your posts!!! It's a good thing not everyone knows what you guys wrote here because if they did we would not be able to get any good priced winners or exactas.

All the best,

CapperLou

[dav4463]

This is better advice than 99% of any handicapping books I've ever read ! Thanks !