Longshots for Friday Jan 20

[Ray2000]

Betting W/P/S

Cal Expo R2......#4 Chief Saratoga-8/1..............Arsenault, Andrew
Cal Expo R7......#5 Paydaze A Rockin-6/1..........Wiseman, Steve
Cal Expo R10.....#8 Allmyx'Sliventexas-6/1........Svendsen, Lemoyne

Freehold R2......#2 Sophisticatedkelly-9/1..........Vandervort, Chase
Freehold R8......#5 Simple Saver N-4/1.............Smith, Steve

Fraser R6........#4 Go To The Windows-10/1.......Johnston, Dennis

Western Fair R5..#5 Apintofdelicious-9/1...........Mcclure, Bob
Western Fair R10.#9 Ginger-7/1......................Steward, Nicholas

Miami Valley R13.#6 Checkout Terror-6/1..........Widger, Sam

The BigM R1......#10 Windsun Fireball-20/1........Merton, Thomas
The BigM R3......#6 Seafood Missy-15/1............Carlson, Eric
...........I went with #6 Sportsmuffler in contest, going against the Robot again.
The BigM R9......#9 Sweet Justice-5/1..............Callahan, Corey
The BigM R11.....#5 Fanticipation-12/1.............Monti, Drew

Woodbine R1......#8 Acefourtyfour Alex-12/1.....Waples, Randall W
Woodbine R2......#8 Burnin Money-5/1.............Mcnair, Douglas R
Woodbine R6......#5 Severus Hanover-12/1.......Jamieson, Jody C
Woodbine R10.....#8 Dazzling Rockette-5/1.......Hensley, Ed F
Woodbine R11.....#7 Drivingthedragon N-8/1.....Roy, Louis Philippe

Yonkers R1.......#4 That'S Some Plan-7/1.........Zeron, Scott
Yonkers R9.......#1 Mighty Peruvian N-9/2........Stratton, Jordan

GLA

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I have to give you my official HELL NO on Windsun Fireball and Seafood Missy. (nothing personal, just havin' fun)

I can see Sportsmuffler, but as of now I'm leaning to favorite, Candy Styx N instead. If you must go long, possible upsets are Heretic Franco N (15-1) and Whiskersonkittens(7-1).

Sweet Justice and Fanticipation are both eligible to win -- as opposed to Windsun Fireball and Seafood Missy. :)

[Ray2000]

Windsun Fireball is a silly computer pick that I just 'put up with' now and then.

The algorithm the Robot uses puts a lot of weight on ability to be close at the half.

It does this by comparing the call at the half vs starting post,
adjusts by ±¼ length for an exceptionally good or poor driver that raceday,
and averages ground gained / lost over as many 'usable' pplines available.

In race 1 today this calculated out to be


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.93 0.28 -2.85 0.63 -0.08 0.35 -1.00 -0.05 -0.50 2.53
Stalker Stalker Closer Stalker Stalker Stalker Closer Stalker Stalker Leaver


That 2.53 number defines him as the only Leaver in the race and a single leaver gets a big bonus.

Of course what frequently happens is the drivers can read and see that also, so they all shoot out of there.


A couple of sub 1:55 miles (1 at Saratoga) for Seafood Missy threw the bot off kilter in the 3rd.
Has her top rated speed average. :confused:

Good Luck Jess et al

[Ray2000]

Windsun Fireball did get the lead but couldn't last with these, nice show price.

Track Race Finish Return (W/P/S)
CALX 2
CALX 7 Win $13.40
CALX 10 Place $13.20
FHLD 2 Show $3.40
FHLD 8
FRD 6 Cancelled
LON 5 Show $4.10
LON 10 Place $10.00
MVR 13 Place $10.20
M 1 Show $13.00
M 3
M 9
M 11
WDB 1 Place $21.20
WDB 2 Win $13.90
WDB 6
WDB 10
WDB 11 Place $8.70
YR 1
YR 9

Bet $114.00 Return $111.10

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Actually Windsun Fireball came from off the pace and benefitted from half the field breaking. But here's something funny, because he was so long, I used him for second. I needed one more breaker. :D

My longshot, Whiskersonkittens won at 9-1, but alas, Candy Styx N missed second -- as did my exacta.