Did You Have a Winning year in 2016

[ReplayRandall]

Did You Have a Winning Year in 2016?

It's that time again to stare in the mirror and fess up, asking yourself, "How did I do in 2016?" Personally, I got stuck like a pig for the first 10 months of the year. However, when November started, it was as if a light switch just flipped on, and I could do no wrong, ending with a modest winning year. I again took more week long breaks, in the midst of my losing ways, while trying to hold losses in check until things finally started to come back together. Anyway, How did you actually do in 2016?

[EasyGoer89]

No, 2016 was a losing year for me.

2017 won't be. ;)

Gotta believe!!

[ReplayRandall]

SRU, you stated you had a losing year in 2016. Please enter that in the poll....Thanks.

[EasyGoer89]

SRU, you stated you had a losing year in 2016. Please enter that in the poll....Thanks.
Ok I'm in.

[lamboguy]

i derailed myself into submission with horses but got most of it back with the presidential election. had i have been a bit more patient in waiting to place my bet on the event i would have made a touchdown for the year.

2017 will be a great year for me in horse betting, so i am looking forward to the spring this year.

[biggestal99]

Best year ever,

Exchange wagering is my new best friend,

My 2017 be as good.

Allan

[Si2see]

I voted for Losing Year in 2016 based on my action through the windows... Tournament play I actually had a decent year.

Jason

[NorCalGreg]

Define winning :lol:

[Secondbest]

I lost $ 286.20 for the year. I was way up but got whacked in December.

[Mulerider]

I lost a few hundred dollars as well, but at least the trend is in the right direction since I got into this seriously about 3 years ago. I'm convinced that, for me, profitability will come on the tournament side sooner than on my cash play.

Either way, it's cheaper than my other vice, sporting clays.

Mule

[mostpost]

I had a winning year, but you shouldn't be too impressed. I did very little wagering in 2016. I did not use my TVG account at all.

I went to Arlington Park twice; once with some long time friends. Once with the folks from Pace Advantage. With my long time friends, I won about $120. With the PA group, my memory is less reliable. I do know that I did not lose more than $100-probably less. So I won, but I won't be writing any handicapping books any time soon.

Move over Andy Beyer :lol:
"My $20 Year At The Racetrack"
By
Mostpost

[EasyGoer89]

I love the 1 vote 'I don't wanna know' :lol:

I'm usually like that but I can't even trick myself into thinking I won, now, If it's close I can pretend I won, not not this time.

[HuggingTheRail]

My divorce became final

lost the in-laws

#winning

[EMD4ME]

My divorce became final

lost the in-laws

#winning


NICE :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[jk3521]

Saratoga killed my year this year, bet the same trainers as I did in 2015 when I did well . They all had bad years this year, I did worse than them. I never recovered. :ThmbDown:

[appistappis]

i was bad in the first half but very good from labour day on to almost get even.

[Track Collector]

Good News --> Year 2016 was profitable. :jump:
Bad News --> Previous few years were not. :blush:

[upthecreek]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pipTwjwrQYQ

Define winning :lol:

[HuggingTheRail]

Good News --> Year 2016 was profitable. :jump:
Bad News --> Previous few years were not. :blush:

Congrats! Did Prineville put you over the top? ;)

[ultracapper]

At the time of this post, we have 26 winners in 2016. What would be considered a "significant" winning year? $12,000 profit? $60,000 profit? Any profit?

I like my wins to make a difference. Let's say betting $500 in a month and getting back $550 is a lot better than a kick to the jimmies, but is it really just "fun" rather than "winning". It is to me anyway. Are there winners in 2016 that consider that a solid, or significant, profit?

Kind of back to defining winning. The difference between winning and making a little money while having fun. BTW, I'm not knocking it. It's just not the reason I have worked at being a handicapper all these years and certainly isn't in the parameters of my goals as a handicapper.

[Charli125]

At the time of this post, we have 26 winners in 2016. What would be considered a "significant" winning year? $12,000 profit? $60,000 profit? Any profit?

I like my wins to make a difference. Let's say betting $500 in a month and getting back $550 is a lot better than a kick to the jimmies, but is it really just "fun" rather than "winning". It is to me anyway. Are there winners in 2016 that consider that a solid, or significant, profit?

Kind of back to defining winning. The difference between winning and making a little money while having fun. BTW, I'm not knocking it. It's just not the reason I have worked at being a handicapper all these years and certainly isn't in the parameters of my goals as a handicapper.

Winning, to me, is ending up in the green. Doesn't matter by how much.

As for a "significant" winning year, that's entirely dependent on the player, how much they bet, and the size of their bankroll. If you bet a million bucks, and made 10K, that's probably not significant at a 1.01 roi. If you bet 100K and made 10K, that's probably significant at a 1.10 roi. I think profit as a percentage of bankroll is the best indicator of significance as opposed to handle though.

[Track Collector]

Congrats! Did Prineville put you over the top? ;)

No, but it did make up about 20% of my year's total profit. Year 2016 was my best ever there with 4 out of 4 winning days. (That probably means year 2017 will be 4 out of 4 losing days, or at best 1 for 4 with a net loss.).

Still trying to get you there some year, and the sooner the better!!

[so.cal.fan]

I've been homebound for the most part...due to illness.
I only play Santa Anita and Del Mar TURF COURSE ONLY
I bet on express bet or at Santa Anita.
I bet to win only...mostly the better class races on turf.
I made a small profit for the year.
So far at Santa Anita we have had a lot of needed rain...so not many opportunities for plays. I'll wait.
I hope to be attending Santa Anita more often.
.

[plainolebill]

I hope you recover soon Diane. I still like the cheaper races, those high class turf races are way above my pay grade.

Best of luck in 2017.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I lost about $1,800 or so after crunching numbers.

Off to a horrid start in January to boot.

Trying to change some things up. New patterns. New thoughts. Ever evolving game.

[lamboguy]

I lost about $1,800 or so after crunching numbers.

Off to a horrid start in January to boot.

Trying to change some things up. New patterns. New thoughts. Ever evolving game.
i hear you loud and clear since i am right there with you. your prescription would be to follow CHRISLONGSHOT. i am pretty sure he actually wins playing 2-3 horses per race. no clue in the world how he does it though

[five-eighths]

Started following the Kentucky Derby prep races last year, that learning curve and my racing luck wasn't as good caused me to lose more than last year.

Ended the year on a positive note winning some money in the Breeders Cup, haven't been back since.

Need to tighten up betting and race selection and focus more on ROI than cashing tickets, that's the plan at least.

[RichieP]

I made 63 (2 horse) win bets for the year hitting 31.75% of them. Wagered a total of $1,183.00 and got back $1,784.50 for a $601.50 profit.

If I had to pay for data (I don't) I would have had a losing year.

[Run Nicholas Run]

thanks to Creator's Belmont I did !

[paulbenny]

I had very bad numbers this year. I am vigilant to improve this year so my record keeping is somewhat over the top. I realize that this is a very tough beat the takeout game but I love it. I have one basic issue: how can you bet a race for example, with Jorge Navarro in it, or Jamie Ness in it?

[andicap]

Either we have the smartest horseplayers in the history of the universe on this board or the biggest liars.

[thaskalos]

Either we have the smartest horseplayers in the history of the universe on this board or the biggest liars.

Naw...we are the typical horseplaying crowd. And our biggest battle is the one against "reality". :)

[ultracapper]

Naw...we are the typical horseplaying crowd. And our biggest battle is the one against "reality". :)

Truer words were never spoken. Accepting reality is the handicapper's biggest challenge.

[EMD4ME]

I have one basic issue: how can you bet a race for example, with Jorge Navarro in it, or Jamie Ness in it?

Overall, dont bet those races... That's what I do.

[Johnny V]

I had a modest winning year in 2016 unlike 2015 which was a losing year. The difference was I cut back on betting turf races both in races wagered on and amounts bet on those races. I also did not make a bet in the last quarter of 2016 so I guess that may have changed the outcome since I did not play for the entire year.
In fact, I have not made a bet this year except for just a very few races at AQU and Tampa. I guess I am just burned out and it is not worth the time I have to put in. Hopefully I will get my batteries recharged this spring.

[ReplayRandall]

Here are the poll results of the last 3 years:

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2016
I had a winning 2016.................32 32.65%
I came close to even in 2016.......10 10.20%
I had a losing year in 2016..........52 53.06%
I don't want to know how I did.....4 4.08%
Voters: 98

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2015
I had a winning 2015.................32 32.32%
I came close to even in 2015.......11 11.11%
I had a losing year in 2015..........50 50.51%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 6.06%
Voters: 99

View Poll Results: How did you do in 2014 ?
I had a winning 2014 !!!.............29 27.36%
I was close to even in 2014.........10 9.43%
I had a losing year in 2014..........61 57.55%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 5.66%
Voters: 106.

[thaskalos]

Here are the poll results of the last 3 years:

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2016
I had a winning 2016.................32 32.65%
I came close to even in 2016.......10 10.20%
I had a losing year in 2016..........52 53.06%
I don't want to know how I did.....4 4.08%
Voters: 98

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2015
I had a winning 2015.................32 32.32%
I came close to even in 2015.......11 11.11%
I had a losing year in 2015..........50 50.51%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 6.06%
Voters: 99

View Poll Results: How did you do in 2014 ?
I had a winning 2014 !!!.............29 27.36%
I was close to even in 2014.........10 9.43%
I had a losing year in 2014..........61 57.55%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 5.66%
Voters: 106.

The winning percentages are getting better year-to-year...but the voters are getting fewer.

[EasyGoer89]

The winning percentages are getting better year-to-year...but the voters are getting fewer.

I'm surprised so many admitted they lost, I would have guessed the winners would have been much higher.

[Jack950]

Had a losing year. Came close to scoring a 7k tournament win, but a decision not to use a certain horse at CD cost me big time. Hope for a better year 2017.

[biggestal99]

I had very bad numbers this year. I am vigilant to improve this year so my record keeping is somewhat over the top. I realize that this is a very tough beat the takeout game but I love it. I have one basic issue: how can you bet a race for example, with Jorge Navarro in it, or Jamie Ness in it?

Navarro was my best friend on the exchange. Yeah I lost a bit sometimes on some his chalkies at Monmouth but made some nice scores betting against him.

Just gotta know your trainer and the way he operates.

Allan

[horseplayer]

losing year ........ $15,241.20 wagered ...... $14,022.10 Won .... ($1,219.10 )

[NJ Stinks]

In a year where I collected on Danny Willett in the Masters at 60-1 while in England, won a nice NCAA college pool where one had to pick every game against the spread, and did well playing individual bowl games, I still finished decently down for the year. Part of it was NFL but most of the losses came at the races.

Actually, I'm getting a bit concerned at my lack of focus when attempting to handicap the night before. It seems more like work than it used to, I'm sorry to say.

[Hapman]

Ended up over because of one big hit on Derby Day, but had an otherwise pretty bad year at most other tracks than my home AP.

[airford1]

Another losing year. I'm blaming the Exotic bets where the monkeys don't finish riding the race out. I know it's part of the game, but I'm still blaming them.I miss the full fields at Santa Anita with riders that put your horse in the race with a chance to win. Where is McCarron when you need him?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i hear you loud and clear since i am right there with you. your prescription would be to follow CHRISLONGSHOT. i am pretty sure he actually wins playing 2-3 horses per race. no clue in the world how he does it though

Dude gets it done.

Mad, mad respect.

Maybe one should Show bet every horse CL posts for $10. I'd be damn sure you'd be well ahead.

[Dahoss2002]

I'm surprised so many admitted they lost, I would have guessed the winners would have been much higher.

It was easy for me. I bet with twinspires and xpressbet. You can always pull up your win/loss. Reality can be quite sobering and the win/loss statement can make you throwup. :lol:

[lamboguy]

Dude gets it done.

Mad, mad respect.

Maybe one should Show bet every horse CL posts for $10. I'd be damn sure you'd be well ahead.if you were only betting $10 you actually might be right, anything more and you might have your problems. i think his win bets are profitable and i have no idea how he does it. one more thing, he is a heck of a nice guy.

[ReplayRandall]

Well, well, looks like the stats have changed a bit, looks like 2015 was an outlier:

Here are the REVISED poll results of the last 3 years:

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2016
I had a winning 2016.................33 29.46%
I came close to even in 2016.......12 10.71%
I had a losing year in 2016..........63 56.25%
I don't want to know how I did.....4 3.57%
Voters: 112

View Poll Results: Did You Have a Winning Year in 2015
I had a winning 2015.................32 32.32%
I came close to even in 2015.......11 11.11%
I had a losing year in 2015..........50 50.51%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 6.06%
Voters: 99

View Poll Results: How did you do in 2014 ?
I had a winning 2014 !!!.............29 27.36%
I was close to even in 2014.........10 9.43%
I had a losing year in 2014..........61 57.55%
I don't want to know how I did.....6 5.66%
Voters: 106.

[no breathalyzer]

i had a losing yr in 2016.. the reason was i got slaughterer the first 3 months of the yr... i learned my lesson this yr as currently im showing a profit! being much more selective as i do my best work as the yr goes on.. i learned to not fck with GP pretty much at has helped me tons

[EMD4ME]

i had a losing yr in 2016.. the reason was i got slaughterer the first 3 months of the yr... i learned my lesson this yr as currently im showing a profit! being much more selective as i do my best work as the yr goes on.. i learned to not fck with GP pretty much at has helped me tons

Smart thinking :ThmbUp:

[NorCalGreg]

You had a little fun at my expense earlier, Randall--clownin' me for my poor showing in the contest. :rip:

And what did I tell you? As soon as my EXOTIC BETS (http://www.pace-view.com) program is completed and ready.....I'll be back on top.

I know you're starting to sweat cuz ol' NorCal is coming for you, baby!

This program lays out the horses and contenders--all of a sudden pick-3's and pick-4's are a piece of cake. And I NEVER did well with horizontal wagers in the past. :cool::D



(*your individual results may vary--wager only what you can afford to lose)

[ReplayRandall]

You had a little fun at my expense earlier, Randall--clownin' me for my poor showing in the contest. :rip:

And what did I tell you? As soon as my EXOTIC BETS (http://www.pace-view.com) program is completed and ready.....I'll be back on top.

I know you're starting to sweat cuz ol' NorCal is coming for you, baby!

This program lays out the horses and contenders--all of a sudden pick-3's and pick-4's are a piece of cake. And I NEVER did well with horizontal wagers in the past. :cool::D



(*your individual results may vary--wager only what you can afford to lose)

Have you looked at the current standings?? You finally hit this past weekend and yet lost massive ground:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2124694&postcount=12

[johnhannibalsmith]

Have you looked at the current standings?? You finally hit this past weekend and yet lost massive ground:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2124694&postcount=12

Wow, I been slacking and not paying a lot of attention - that was a nice weekend!

[NorCalGreg]

Have you looked at the current standings?? You finally hit this past weekend and yet lost massive ground:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2124694&postcount=12

Okay....so you don't get "plain text" humor....understood

[ReplayRandall]

Okay....so you don't get "plain text" humor....understood

Yeah, I'm dumb that way....Thanks for noticing..:coffee:

[ReplayRandall]

Wow, I been slacking and not paying a lot of attention - that was a nice weekend!

Thank ya, sir.....My new name is ReallyLuckyRandall, the "replay" is now long gone.

[thaskalos]

Where can this contest be found, in case some of us want to follow along?

[Track Collector]

Where can this contest be found, in case some of us want to follow along?

Try the CONTEST section of the forum. ;)

Under 2017 RDSS Ridersup Memorial Aqueduct Inner Track Challenge.

[surfdog89]

I made money last year.........I had a winning year betting Santa Anita and Del Mar........I bet the So Cal circuit.........for me patience and money management and of course luck......made my year a profitable one................:)

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's not about what your ROI is it's about how much money you made.

If you bet 100K and won 10 grand you are a pussy.

But if you bet 1 mil and won 10 grand you are the man.

If you can't bet dirt and win you are a loser.

If you proclaim to win and are helped by another surface=you are a liar.

In short. If you don't have a mil to put in play you are a loser. If you can't win exclusively on dirt, you are a loser.

This is what I am picking up from this board. I think it's bullshit.

[Poindexter]

It's not about what your ROI is it's about how much money you made.

If you bet 100K and won 10 grand you are a pussy.

But if you bet 1 mil and won 10 grand you are the man.

If you can't bet dirt and win you are a loser.

If you proclaim to win and are helped by another surface=you are a liar.

In short. If you don't have a mil to put in play you are a loser. If you can't win exclusively on dirt, you are a loser.

This is what I am picking up from this board. I think it's bullshit.

Well it all depends on what you define as made. If you made a pre rebate profit of $10,000, then of course your rebates will be a lot fatter(and your net profit a lot bigger) if you bet a million dollars a year instead of $100,000 a year. If the 10 k profit includes rebates and you are a million dollar a year player then you are a losing player who used rebates to make you profitable (nothing wrong with that as long as you are able to keep getting those rebates).

I do not think being a pussy comes into play until you really know where you stand. I think the true bullshit that I see from gambling forums is that player x, claims he is a +20% roi player. Really, based off of what? One month, one year, 3 years....sure I guess it is possible to bet $100,000 in 2014 and make $20,000 ad bet $100,000 in 2015 and make $19,245 and bet $100,000 in 2016 and make $21,200, but I find it highly doubtful that any player has reached that kind of consistency. I think it is more likely that in 2014 one bets $100,000 and win $3,000 then in 2015 one bets $100,000 and wins $50,000 and then in 2016 bets $100,000 and wins $7,000. Same $60,000 over 3 years but, the profit in 2 of those years is 3 % and 7%, and thus you really do not know whether you are a plus 5% player, a plus 10% player or you just got lucky over a 3 year period.......I think being a "pussy" comes into play only when you have established over a number of years, that yes, you will win over the long haul, and you stubbornly hold on to small bets. Also no law says you have to use an aggressive betting strategy(such as Kelly). But somewhere down the road your $20 flat win bet needs to jump to $25, then eventually $30.......until someone who can make a healthy roi is making himself a healthy income also. Also, has more to do with common sense than having balls. You do the work and we all know that if you are making money at this game you are doing a lot of work, so why not let yourself be amply paid for the skill set you have obtained.


Regarding where you make it is irrelevant. Whether you specialize in dirt or turf or stakes or maiden races.....really doesn't matter except that it limits your ability to fully exploit multi race exotics and of course handicapping tournament. The million dollar pick 6 giveaway is not going to be of much value if it has 5 turf races and you suck on turf or vice versa.

Honestly, I think the biggest obstacle to growing a bankroll is having the discipline or ability to keep money you make in the bankroll category and not pull it out to pay bills, buy something special for yourself or a loved one or just blow it thinking that money grows on trees. Other than that, do your thing, grow your bankroll and don't worry about what poster x says and poster y says unless it helps you get to another level.

[redeye007]

The Pick 4, 5, 6 is the way to go!

[thaskalos]

The Pick 4, 5, 6 is the way to go!

As Poindexter said..."it depends".

Some like the horizontals...and others like the verticals. Whichever style of play suits the player's temperament and bankroll is the way to go. I've noticed that most horseplayers would rather LOSE playing THEIR way...than win playing differently.

[ikeika]

I really like your background pic.

[Pensacola Pete]

For thoroughbreds, I showed a modest profit for the year.

[lamboguy]

in the early 90's i used to hang around a trading room that had about 30 people sitting in front of computers doing SOS trading on instanet for 1000 shares at a time paying $25 commissions in and out. they all made money at it. then the party ended and the market maker's no longer stuck their neck out for 1000 shares at a time and they got faster computer's and the SOS game was over.

instead of walking away with the money, most of the traders in the room became day traders. these people were the smartest people on the planet, they had backgrounds that came from The Sloan School of Business, Harvard and Babson. after a few months 30 traders became 20, then 20 became 10 then the room closed.

at the time my good friend ran the place. i tried to trade SOS but i was to slow. i tried to day trade but i lost my bankroll of $15,000 in 6 days and went clean. i stood around because i had these small deposits in mutual banks all over the place and was waiting for them to become public so that i could buy the stock as a new issue and trade out of them the day they became public. when they would announce that they were going public the banks notified me and gave me the opportunity to purchase the shares. i used to get cash advances so that i could buy them, then trade out and payoff the credit cards.

this thread reminds me of those days by seeing how many people out of less than 100 are winning at a game just as tough as the markets. i know i can't win at this game and i truly envy all those that are doing such a fine job of it today.

[Nitro]

.Some like the horizontals...and others like the verticals. Whichever style of play suits the player's temperament and bankroll is the way to go. I've noticed that most horse players would rather LOSE playing THEIR way...than win playing differently.
Those losing horse players you’ve described unfortunately make up the majority of players in general. As far as I’m concerned they’re all playing this game Diagonally. Most are just too lazy to keep records and most don’t realize how important money management really is.

Although I can’t lump them all into particular category. And I could be wrong, but I suspect that as the $$$ amount of an individual’s betting increases so does their discipline in perhaps treating the game more like a business venture. Being realistic about profits and losses should be a pretty good indicator of whether or not someone should continue to stay involved, especially if a fair period of time has passed without any success. No sense in throwing good money after bad.

[EMD4ME]

Those losing horse players you’ve described unfortunately make up the majority of players in general. As far as I’m concerned they’re all playing this game Diagonally. Most are just too lazy to keep records and most don’t realize how important money management really is.

Although I can’t lump them all into particular category. And I could be wrong, but I suspect that as the $$$ amount of an individual’s betting increases so does their discipline in perhaps treating the game more like a business venture. Being realistic about profits and losses should be a pretty good indicator of whether or not someone should continue to stay involved, especially if a fair period of time has passed without any success. No sense in throwing good money after bad.

I find that to be true.

Also, if someone is betting more and more then A) They're winning a lot or B) they are tilting and losing an inheritance/refinance/life savings.

[ReplayRandall]

I find that to be true.

Also, if someone is betting more and more then A) They're winning a lot or B) they are tilting and losing an inheritance/refinance/life savings.
Of course you find that to be true, as you've experienced "A" and lost it all back, and now you're experiencing ghetto "B".....The truth will set you free, EMD...:pound::cool::pound:

[EMD4ME]

Of course you find that to be true, as you've experienced "A" and lost it all back, and now you're experiencing ghetto "B".....The truth will set you free, EMD...:pound::cool::pound:

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Alright I set that one up :) Well played pal.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The road to salvation is betting more races. The road to ruin is betting too many races. The why and wheretofore is the most crucial question. In my opinion if it is isolated geographically ie tracks or circuit=you aren't willing to win. No truer case than myself. If you isolate yourself by track or circuit or surface or distance you are already participating in your own loss. Winning has to be the universal value and it can happen anywhere.

[ultracapper]

The road to salvation is betting more races. The road to ruin is betting too many races. The why and wheretofore is the most crucial question. In my opinion if it is isolated geographically ie tracks or circuit=you aren't willing to win. No truer case than myself. If you isolate yourself by track or circuit or surface or distance you are already participating in your own loss. Winning has to be the universal value and it can happen anywhere.

So you're implying that back in the days before simulcasting, there were no winning players due to the fact the majority of players were prisoners of their local circuit?

We discuss on here all the time knowing the trainers, knowing the jockeys, knowing track maintenance, and other peculiarities of a particular track/circuit. I believe these discussions are spot on. You must know these things if you are going to have a chance to be a successful handicapper. Your suggestion flies in the face of this a bit.

[ReplayRandall]

So you're implying that back in the days before simulcasting, there were no winning players due to the fact the majority of players were prisoners of their local circuit?

We discuss on here all the time knowing the trainers, knowing the jockeys, knowing track maintenance, and other peculiarities of a particular track/circuit. I believe these discussions are spot on. You must know these things if you are going to have a chance to be a successful handicapper. Your suggestion flies in the face of this a bit.

The road to salvation is betting more races. The road to ruin is betting too many races. The why and wheretofore is the most crucial question. In my opinion if it is isolated geographically ie tracks or circuit=you aren't willing to win. No truer case than myself. If you isolate yourself by track or circuit or surface or distance you are already participating in your own loss. Winning has to be the universal value and it can happen anywhere.
Actually, both your posts are correct, as long as you have a proven +EV where ever you play. IMO, you'll have more +EV plays at a track you're more familiar with, and which pool sizes are large enough to make ample sized bets into, as far as what Ultra is alluding to. However, CH is on the right track with "universal value", which can be found at any track, so long as you do the hard work, keeping accurate records and don't over-bet into smaller pools.....I've cashed at over 30 different US tracks last year that had +EV plays over a 3 year data sample size, BUT the majority of those bets have been made at just 4 circuits.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Actually, both your posts are correct, as long as you have a proven +EV where ever you play. IMO, you'll have more +EV plays at a track you're more familiar with, and which pool sizes are large enough to make ample sized bets into, as far as what Ultra is alluding to. However, CH is on the right track with "universal value", which can be found at any track, so long as you do the hard work, keeping accurate records and don't over-bet into smaller pools.....I've cashed at over 30 different US tracks last year that had +EV plays over a 3 year data sample size, BUT the majority of those bets have been made at just 4 circuits.

Regarding your last statement on 4 circuits I am with you. I like the turf races on the big circuits so most of my play revolves around New York, Florida, and Kentucky throughout the year. But perfectly comfortable in California and at the Fair Grounds. But because I know I understand the nature of turf and pedigree families for the surface that it translates to every turf course and because there is less betting action or understanding of those 2 attributes at smaller tracks I find more turf longshots at Louisiana Downs, Sam Houston, or Remington. On dirt the problem is more pronounced. I have a high average mutual at the big tracks but unless I am on a steady diet of 1-1 to 2-1 shots I often have to wait a while. So when I tried to specialize on turf I ended up playing too many races and started seeing virtues that weren't there. I isolated myself. I lost. I stopped. The need for more dirt opportunities meant more tracks. More races. A fairly universal turf ability but still needed to be more selective meant more tracks, more races. Other than burnout and extended bad weather influence the biggest, most disheartening losing streaks in my 20 years of play were when I isolated myself on a track, or a circuit, or a surface, or a distance. And sometimes in the short term any particular track can give you fits for a multitude of reasons. It's nice to not step off but step over. And I am capable of that specific knowledge from trips and track biases and specific knowledge of a horse. But I find that those golden opportunities can be outmatched simply by seeing more races and more races everywhere. Although I revolve around the big circuits my 3 latest longshots have come from Mahoning Valley, Will Rogers Downs, and Sam Houston. I wasn't even looking 3 years ago there.

Anyway back in the summer of 2015 I had a complete breakdown in my faith in what I was doing and stopped playing. That led to a lot of self analysis and developing myself more with method and approach. It didn't take long to get back in the game and what I found was that I had lost track with my roots on small circuits. I found my way back to former similar winning numbers. I had done nothing wrong! I was still the same player. I had been just eliminating item after item of opportunity. By the end of that year my confidence was restored. And it was better. I felt the horseplaying world was once again wide open to me. And it has gotten better since. I just wanted to share this with other players. And try not to be a prick about it! Not always my strong suit!

[ultracapper]

Good post, Cincy.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good post, Cincy.

Thanks Capper. I think I needed to be more specific. I started right at the beginning of the simulcast era but took to heart Beyer saying know your own track and circuit. I think that experience way back then set the foundation for being able to evolve to my approach now. If one didn't predate the other a lot would have been lost in translation. I've had to have moments of self chastisement when not paying closer attention to track profiles/biases and thinking about horses in those terms. The universality of the horse, the general nature of tracks and surfaces translates everywhere. I try to keep this the center of gravity along with everything else I am doing.

[ultracapper]

Every experience you have in this game can have meaning, that's for certain.

[timtam]

I'd really like to see those 61 guys who had a winning year.

What do they go once a year make a show bet and vamoose !:lol:

[erikeepper]

I had a winning year thanks to Thaskalos and Deltalover! I totally changed my betting philosophy after reading the posts from these guys. Keep up the good work :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

I'd really like to see those 61 guys who had a winning year.

What do they go once a year make a show bet and vamoose !:lol:

Maybe some of them do. Others, not.

Do you want them to send pictures of themselves? You'd like to see them, in person? What is it you're looking for?

[timtam]

I'm looking for the truth man nothing but the truth :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was a decent player when I found this place in 2008. Having access to this place speeded up my education by a lifetime. This is a very difficult game. A little slopiness in preparation or thought and your ass is going to lose and lose badly. But doing the work. Being properly armed and prepared. This is a beatable game.