HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SAT 1/14

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in All 10 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT. EST

TVG is offering live video for all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections from the static tote analysis to follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #4 - #7
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right (When the O.A. Profit Margin is Above 50%)

R#1 - 1200M (6F) Turf …...2-4 w/ 3-9-7-11 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #5 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf......5-3 w/ 4-9-8-10 …..12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #2 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......4-1 w/ 8-11-5-3…....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #6– Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1600M (8F) Turf …....1-6 w/ 5-4-10-3….…1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #14– Watch Live tote activity -#2 may be a Bomb!)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf ….....2-4 w/ 9-5-6-11…...2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12– Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf........3-2 w/ 9-1-5-4 .…...2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #8– Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf ….....1-5 w/ 2-3-4-7..........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #9– Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1400M (7F) Turf.........9-2 w/ 3-1-4-13 …....3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #8– Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1800M (9F) Awt.........3-1 w/ 2-8-9-12……...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)

.
R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf........5-1 w/ 4-3-10-7.......4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2– Watch Live tote activity)


GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-4 w/ 3-9-7-11
Live Tote Results: 2-12-9-11
Top choice Early & $6.90 Live & Dutch Win 117% Profit Margin

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R2 :10:

[Nitro]

R2 :10:
Nice Call there LemonDrop! :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R#2 - 5-3 w/ 4-9-8-10 All of that one! :ThmbUp:
Live Tote Results: 10-3-9-12
6th choice $41.80 Early & 5th choice Live - $216.50 QUIN & $2,194.20 TRI – Dutch Out

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Nice Call there LemonDrop! :ThmbUp:

TY.

Blind squirrel

:10: W $41.80

[rsetup]

R3

:2:, :8:, :11:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R3 :5:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 4-1 w/ 8-11-5-3 - All of that one – Top 3 !
Live Tote Results: 8-4-1-2
3rd choice $4.50 Early & Top choice Live & $10.30 QUIN / $71.00 TRI – Dutch Pass

[rsetup]

Am I missing something: in the online PPS and the race programs on the HKG site, it appears that there's a ton of information EXCEPT for the race number of previous races. It can't be the case that they would omit this from the PPs.

[Nitro]

Am I missing something: in the online PPS and the race programs on the HKG site, it appears that there's a ton of information EXCEPT for the race number of previous races. It can't be the case that they would omit this from the PPs.
I wouldn't know because I don't use the PPs.
But anyway why would that be a significant omission?

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-6 w/ 5-4-10-3
Live Tote Results: 14-3-1-13
Out Early & 2nd (Watch) choice $6.00 Live – $19.40 Quin / $115.6 Tri – Dutch Pass

Just for fun I did put #2 in the Quinellas. Couldn't pass a 234/1 shot!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-4 w/ 9-5-6-11
Live Tote Results: 6-4-12-5
5th choice $3.10 Early & 2nd choice Live – $11.10 QUIN – Dutch Pass

[Nitro]

R#6 - 3-2 w/ 9-1-5-4
Live Tote Results: 5-2-6-11
5th choice $35.10 Early & Live & $121.10 QUIN - Dutch Out

[Parkview_Pirate]

Am I missing something: in the online PPS and the race programs on the HKG site, it appears that there's a ton of information EXCEPT for the race number of previous races. It can't be the case that they would omit this from the PPs.

The PPs from the HKJC website include the race number, but it's a 3 or 4 digit index number, sort of like the DRF days of old. The free PPs provided by the ADWs do not contain this info, but if you look in the second column of the running lines, you'll see the race index number. For example, in race 7, the :1: horse last ran on December 7th in race "243", which I believe translates to 24th race day of the current meeting (beginning in Sept), third race.

Of course, the trick is remember to read those PPs from the bottom up, instead of top down to get the right chronological order.... :)

[Nitro]

Hey there Parkview! Happy New Year!

Where have you been keeping yourself? No more HK play?
I can't get enough of their racing!

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-5 w/ 2-3-4-7 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-2-7-8 - Dutch Win 85% Profit Margin
2nd choice $35.90 Early & Live $38.90 QUIN / $792.40 TRI

[Nitro]

R#8 - 9-2 w/ 3-1-4-13
Live Tote Results: 9-2-14-7 – Dutch Pass
Top choice $2.90 Early & Live – $9.10 QUIN

[Parkview_Pirate]

Hey there Parkview! Happy New Year!

Where have you been keeping yourself? No more HK play?
I can't get enough of their racing!

Hey Nitro, Happy New Year right back at ya.

Haven't been playing the ponies as much the past few months, since I qualified for the NHC back in October. Will probably pick up the pace after I whiff against the 650+ players in Vegas in a couple of weeks.

As for Hong Kong, I've been busy most Saturday nights, but am playing a little tonight since the Aussies are running late. Love the Friday night racing from Down Under.

[Nitro]

Hey Nitro, Happy New Year right back at ya.

Haven't been playing the ponies as much the past few months, since I qualified for the NHC back in October. Will probably pick up the pace after I whiff against the 650+ players in Vegas in a couple of weeks.

As for Hong Kong, I've been busy most Saturday nights, but am playing a little tonight since the Aussies are running late. Love the Friday night racing from Down Under.
Hey that's great! Good for you! :ThmbUp:

They've been running Sha Tin most weekends on Sun. Why they switched to Sat this weekend is a mystery.

Best of luck to you in that big contest! Go for those long ones!

[Nitro]

R#9 - 3-1 w/ 2-8-9-12 -
Live Tote Results: 3-1-4-2 – Dutch Pass
Top choice $4.90 Early & Live – $8.10 QUIN


R#10 - 5-1 w/ 4-3-10-7 –
Live Tote Results: 7-1-2-11 – Dutch Pass
6th choice $4.40 Early & 2nd choice Live & $9.60 QUIN