Wagering at Beginning of a Meet: Attack or Watch?

[hogoffate]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

[EMD4ME]

I attack ALL my meets early as I am extremely comfortable at my few tracks.

ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK !!!!! Once the public knows, the value is gone.

[JustRalph]

8-10 years ago I used to play this meet early for one reason. Identifying short horses at short prices. Lots of horses fade in the stretch at low odds. That stretch used to seem so long.........until they get a few starts......many would fade.

Haven't played it in years though........

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

Though it's an individual decision I approach every new meeting a little reserved, at least for the first few days to see how the track is playing and riders etc. This principle has saved me many a losing wager through out the years.

[Redboard]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

I vote for early. Overlays are more plentiful at the start. After awhile, things settle down and all the cappers figure it out.

[Nitro]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.
I personally prefer to wait a couple of weeks especially at tracks where there’s a lot of time in between race meets and where horses will be shipping in from many other tracks. I like the idea of letting the horses having a run over the track. Not because I’m interested in knowing how they performed, but because it gives the connections an idea of what shape their horses might be in, and how they handled the racing surface in conjunction with their recent preparations, especially if they’ve been laid off a while.

As far as I’m concerned when there are certain unknowns, handicappers are only adding more uncertainly to their judgment calls because as outsiders they have no idea what the connections have planned for their animals. Too many handicappers seem to be under the impression that every time a horse is entered in a race that it’s trying to win. This is a very foolish mistake. So while an entry with a M/L of 5/2 going off at 6/1 may seem to be an appealing overlay, there could very well be a good reason for the lack of support.

Finding overlays or good value is not something that’s just useful (or even more prevalent) during the beginning of a meet. It should be an everyday priority no matter when or where you’re playing. How players determine these type of plays and successfully take advantage of them is the real personal preference. I highly doubt a seasoned player investing more then some fun money is going to get seriously involved in guesswork. Of course there are gamblers who will play anything that might appeal to them.

[AndyC]

Could there be a better time to bet? When confusion reigns among the majority of players those willing to do the necessary homework are generously rewarded.

[thaskalos]

I'm really excited about the upcoming Oaklawn Park meet that begins this coming Friday. I feel I have a pretty good handle on the successful trainers and their avenues of success. I'm thinking of being aggressive early.

How do you guys play the opening of your favorite meet? Aggressive or wait until things "settle down" so to speak.

Any thoughts / ideas are appreciated.

The best person to answer the above question is YOU! Have you successfully attacked the Oaklawn meet from the very start before?

[HuggingTheRail]

Early!!

For me, most of my wagering is on my home track (Hastings). They race from Apr - Oct each year. A few horses go to Turf Paradise, Golden Gate, or Portland for the winter, but most of the starters in April have not raced over the winter.

While the horses coming in with recent races are race fit, they are often over bet. Local horses who have been farmed trained, or trained in the Interior of the province (at Desert Park racetrack in Osoyoos) will sometimes win with nice prices....

[green80]

Oaklawn is a tough track to play, I don't think it makes any difference if it is early or late in the season. There are a lot of horses coming in from the local farms in addition to the big stables coming in. In my opinion, Oaklawn gets the best group of horses for a meet in all the south so it's hard to single out that winner a lot of times.

[pondman]

I wouldn't hesitate to play. But I'd be screening out racing, just as I would at any other track. When I see 14 horses in a maiden race I'm going to say no. The math on that would be negative.

[Bennie]

if you have the funds and truly believe you have a good handle on trainer intent then go for it. You will get much better value early.
I personally play certain tracks early but won't touch others until a few weeks into the meet. When horses start shipping North to South or South to North I usually hold back when horses start coming from all over. I follow NY racing for the most part and have no qualms about wagering any time of the year. Other tracks not so much. As Thaskalos said, the best person to ask is yourself.

[JohnGalt1]

For all tracks opening--not just Oaklawn--there are plusses and minuses whether to wait or dive in early.

My home track is Canterbury. first day will be KY Derby day. Horses come from Iowa, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida and those who last raced in Minnesota at the end of the previous meet.

Most will not have raced for at least a month and many MN bred horses not since August.

Jump right in issues---

1)Many races look like chaos races to some handicappers who aren't sure what to do with shippers and lay off horses.

2)Are the horses racing fit?

3)Are they meant to win early or is the first, or second race a paid work out?

4)Are the speed figures from last summer worth using for this year? Especially for the now 3 year olds whose figures were from 2 year old races?

5)Are we willing to pass race after race? Or every race and just throw our work in the trash can?

***** An aside. Every year I go through my handicapping from 3 years ago before I throw it away. I keep 3 years of data.

So this year I'm reviewing my 2013 data.

In January 2013 I handicapped a Gulfstream card where about 80% of horses were off lay offs, figures were taken from races a month or more previously. Every bet I made lost. I'm not a good guesser when data is limited or questionable.

6)Are there changes this year for your track? Is there a new track superintendent or racing secretary? A new dirt or turf course? Santa Anita's turf course was new last year. How did we adapt to the faster surface? Any new wagers? Can we gain an edge before every one learns the best way to play it?

7)And finally, how well or poorly do we do when tracks open or re-open after a short shut down (ex. Hawthorne)? Our records will tell us, just like our records tell us we suck or kill with tirfectas, or pick 4's.

[cnollfan]

Could there be a better time to bet? When confusion reigns among the majority of players those willing to do the necessary homework are generously rewarded.

Agree. Although an avid follower of Oaklawn, I am out of state. As the meet goes on I feel at more of a disadvantage versus those who have been there every day.

[ebcorde]

swear you should watch.

[ebcorde]

Oaklawn is a tough track to play, I don't think it makes any difference if it is early or late in the season. There are a lot of horses coming in from the local farms in addition to the big stables coming in. In my opinion, Oaklawn gets the best group of horses for a meet in all the south so it's hard to single out that winner a lot of times.


YOU GOT THAT RIGHT!!!!

[CincyHorseplayer]

First few weeks of meets are great barring it is one that is plagued with layoff horses. Instead of players betting horse abilities they are confused and follow trainers, jockeys, and shippers from higher level tracks. Opportunities are bigtime early. When everybody else is ready to sink their teeth in prices plummet. See it all the time. I would argue the beginning of the meet is the most important time of the whole meet itself.

[HuggingTheRail]

First few weeks of meets are great barring it is one that is plagued with layoff horses. Instead of players betting horse abilities they are confused and follow trainers, jockeys, and shippers from higher level tracks. Opportunities are bigtime early. When everybody else is ready to sink their teeth in prices plummet. See it all the time. I would argue the beginning of the meet is the most important time of the whole meet itself.


that next few weeks can also be lucrative - the trainer that starts out 4/10 gets bet more...and then regresses to the norm

[arw629]

It's supposed to rain in Hot Springs from now through Tuesday so tread lightly? No pun intended ...

[CincyHorseplayer]

that next few weeks can also be lucrative - the trainer that starts out 4/10 gets bet more...and then regresses to the norm

Totally true. I use trainer stats a lot but never understood this phenomenon. Show me a red hot trainer and I'll show you one to bet against for the next few weeks because most of his charges have won. Another guy who just got there and his next 10 starters are all 2-3rd start off layoff and/or dropping in class and he is ready to get scalding hot. It's pretty basic isn't it? Good point.

For me I just think most of the mismatches occur at the beginning of meets.

[arw629]

The burning question in everyone's mind is whether or not the Coach will have Mr. Z ready to roll Friday...

[mikekk]

Early!!

For me, most of my wagering is on my home track (Hastings). They race from Apr - Oct each year. A few horses go to Turf Paradise, Golden Gate, or Portland for the winter, but most of the starters in April have not raced over the winter.

While the horses coming in with recent races are race fit, they are often over bet. Local horses who have been farmed trained, or trained in the Interior of the province (at Desert Park racetrack in Osoyoos) will sometimes win with nice prices....

This can work particularly well if you can find a trainer who consistently strikes early.

I remember a trainer at Hastings named Tony Tomljenovich (rip I'm afraid) who very seldom won more than 10 races per year...but consistently won 3 or 4 races in the first 6 weeks of the season. Not at bad percentage, as he usually had a very small stable. Found out he had a training track out on his farm; his horses always showed one (and only one) work on track...4f in 54.2, or 5f in 107.4. Perfect deception, once you realized his horses were dead fit! Used to spend the first 2 months waiting for him to show up...was usually amply rewarded!

[JustRalph]

8-10 years ago I used to play this meet early for one reason. Identifying short horses at short prices. Lots of horses fade in the stretch at low odds. That stretch used to seem so long.........until they get a few starts......many would fade.

Haven't played it in years though........

Watching TVG on split screen today. Oak lawn: Watching horses fade in the last 1/16th all day. Some things never change

[EMD4ME]

Sam Houston starts tonight, BET with 2 fists early as once they run back and back and back, much more chalk .....