HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 1/8

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in 9 of the 10 races: With 8 on the Turf and 2 on the AWT.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow Icon <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #5 - #9 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right.

R#1 - 1600M (8F) Turf ..….4-9 w/ 6-2-1-8 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1400M (7F) Turf......2-3 w/ 5-10-8-1 …..12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6– Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1000M (6F) Turf.......3-2 w/ 1-5…….............1:00 AM EST


R#4 - 1200M (6F) Awt….....3-5 w/ 8-4-7-12…........…1:30 AM EST


R#5 - 1800M (9F) Turf …....1-4 w/ 9-8-14-11…..........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #6– Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......6-7 w/ 5-14-9-12 .…...2:35 AM EST


R#7 - 1400M (7F) Turf …....1-2 w/ 4-8-9-13..........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7– Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1400M (7F) Turf........2-5 w/ 12-4-11-9 …....3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #7– Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1200M (6F) Awt.........5-3 w/ 2-1-9-4……...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #10– Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf.......2-3 w/ 1-10-6-11.......4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4– Watch Live tote activity)


GL if you’re playing!
.

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Don't forget! ;)

HKJC - If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, all winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 4-9 w/ 6-2-1-8
Live Tote Results: 1-2-7-11
5th choice Early & 3rd choice $15.10 Live & $51.90 Quin Bx (Lots of solid action on Top 2!)

[ebcorde]

http://www.skyracing.com.au/index.php?venue=127288&component=tip&task=tips&Itemid=217&id=20

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:2:

[ebcorde]

https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/Sha-Tin_91227/Fire-Cracker-Vine-Hcp-%28C5%29_527787/#Overview (http:///www.punters.com.au/form-guide/Sha-Tin_91227/Fire-Cracker-Vine-Hcp-%28C5%29_527787/#Overview)

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2-3 w/ 5-10-8-1 All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-10-3-1
3rd choice $10.50 Early & 2nd choice Live - $17.90 QUIN & $137.00 TRI

[ebcorde]

#5 chalk.

got his doors blown off. Punters as usual over/under #2 2nd choice better value

[Nitro]

R#3 - 3-2 w/ 1-5 - All of that one w/ Great Value! :ThmbUp:
Live Tote Results: 2-3-1-5
2nd choice $11.60 Early & Live & $27.90 QUIN & $149.20 TRI

[ebcorde]

1:30am R4 was thinking 5

well I can watch the race on Racing UK cant bet it

[Nitro]

R#4 - 3-5 w/ 8-4-7-12
Live Tote Results: 4-11-8-5
4th choice $15.00 Early & Live – Top 3 saw good late action

[ebcorde]

and I can't bet.

BTW: Racing UK has good sound , that crowd is really really loud.

[Nitro]

loved the 4 Ash????
and I can't bet.

BTW: Racing UK has good sound , that crows is really really loud.
Before or After the race????

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-4 w/ 9-8-14-11
Live Tote Results: 4-1-10-7
2nd choice $14.90 Early & Live – & $82.80 QUIN – More great Value! :ThmbUp:

[ebcorde]

Before or After the race????


yuck yuck yuck betting website down. so what's the point...oh I see you hit it. so I watch on UK TV

as I said before avoid Asian riders and Zac Joao, Joao Zac I'm shot for the day have fun

race 6
6-4,9
oh there she goes again with the toes

[ebcorde]

I can't see Jockey names without glasses.. I thought Joao was not in the race.
5-1 too

[Nitro]

R#6 - 6-7 w/ 5-14-9-12
Live Tote Results: 5-4-8-12 - #4 & #8 got good late action
3rd choice $13.00 Early & Live & Another nice Dutch return

[ebcorde]

Race 7 2-4 with 8,1,7 winner

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 w/ 4-8-9-13 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-2-4-6
Top choice $24.60 Early & Live & $50.00 QUIN / $363.40 TRI COLD

[ebcorde]

R8 2,11,4///1,9

Mr Brett Prebble

[ebcorde]

R#7 - 1-2 w/ 4-8-9-13 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-2-4-6
Top choice $24.60 Early & Live & $50.00 QUIN / $363.40 TRI COLD


HOLD ON
how you get $363 ??? I got $32 and $236 on $1.30 pools are co-mingled I see 18 mil in win pool R8

[Nitro]

HOLD ON
how you get $363 ??? I got $32 and $236 on $1.30 pools are co-mingled I see 18 mil in win pool R8

Very simple :
TIERCE 1,2,4 = 1,817.00 HK$ /5 = $363.40 US$

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-5 w/ 12-4-11-9 All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 11-4-12-2
Winner got solid betting throughout & #5 was dead on the board
5th choice Early & 2nd choice $7.70 Live – $14.00 QUIN & $267.00 TRI BX -

[ebcorde]

that is not what Twinspires is paying. pools should be co-mingled. I see it Aussie payouts fit yours calc. wow.

I know Twinspires rules are hidden intentionally because support could not explain I called them about a low payout in Oz land once, they told me to call the track ...10,000 miles away in West Oz.

my bad 1.30 base bet / vs 1.00 base. duh

[Nitro]

R#9 - 5-3 w/ 2-1-9-4 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 2-9-3-5 – More great Value!
3rd choice $18.30 Early & Live – $61.00 QUIN & $1,812.60 TRI BX :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R#10 - 2-3 w/ 1-10-6-11 –
Live Tote Results: 2-14-13-10 Lots of late money on #14 & #13!
Top choice $6.30 Early & Live & Another decent Dutch return!

[Nitro]

Another Fun & Very Profitable day at Sha Tin!
The results turned out to be one of my personal best O.A. cards in HK. :ThmbUp:
Hope you made some money too!