racing takeout

[lamboguy]

if anyone doesn't know how much takeout effects a horse player please take a look at the 9th race at fairgrounds today. field scratched down to 2, both horses with even chances both go off at 3/5 the winner pays $3.20 for win which equates to a 40% discount. those are impossible odds to shoot at even with a rebate.

[no breathalyzer]

yea i was just thinking the same. they should lower the take out in these situations.. if they did it might even spike the win pool

[cj]

If the race were on the board in Vegas probably both go at -110. In horse racing, but go at -167. Who in his right mind would bet that?

[AskinHaskin]

if anyone doesn't know how much takeout effects a horse player please take a look at the 9th race at fairgrounds today. field scratched down to 2, both horses with even chances both go off at 3/5 the winner pays $3.20 for win which equates to a 40% discount. those are impossible odds to shoot at even with a rebate.


Yeah, right, and lower takeout cost Eric Halstrom his job.

[cj]

Yeah, right, and lower takeout cost Eric Halstrom his job.

You have a link that shows he is out at Canterbury? Even better does it say due to the takeout drop?

[AltonKelsey]

if anyone doesn't know how much takeout effects a horse player please take a look at the 9th race at fairgrounds today. field scratched down to 2, both horses with even chances both go off at 3/5 the winner pays $3.20 for win which equates to a 40% discount. those are impossible odds to shoot at even with a rebate.

C'mon , if you cant figure out the winner in a two horse race, then you should at least be able to figure out the loser, in which case 3/5 is generous.

[mnmark]

You have a link that shows he is out at Canterbury? Even better does it say due to the takeout drop?

I don't have a link but i can confirm that he is no longer at Canterbury.

[lamboguy]

i couldn't pick the loser of that nw2 life for $5000 in a million years because i have no idea how those horses are training from 1500 miles away. i figured out its not worth guessing at those prices either.

what i did learn is how impossible it is to overcome the takeout. personally i would much rather just give my money to the MAKE A WISH FOUNDATION. at least it would help to make an unfortunate kid happy for a short time that got dealt a bad hand instead of putting money into the hands of over paid track management, workers and overcharging greedy trainers.

[Augenj]

if anyone doesn't know how much takeout effects a horse player please take a look at the 9th race at fairgrounds today. field scratched down to 2, both horses with even chances both go off at 3/5 the winner pays $3.20 for win which equates to a 40% discount. those are impossible odds to shoot at even with a rebate.
I agree but it also demonstrates how breakage affects the payout on low odds horses too. It might have been a $3.39 payoff rounded down to $3.20. Let's see... If it paid $3.40 instead, that would be how much takeout and is it close to the advertised takeout?

[AskinHaskin]

"Eric Halstrom first proposed his big idea to Randy Sampson...


Sampson’s initial response was...


‘You’ve got to be kidding me,... Why would we do that? It’s crazy'."



http://www.startribune.com/canterbury-park-is-betting-that-less-is-more/380202041/#1


Halstrom's fate is part of public financial records.


Now it seems to me that if Halstrom's own actions hadn't brought about his fate, other racing entities would have snapped him up in a heartbeat. Instead Mr. Halstrom has dropped off the racing radar since the end of the Cby season. (that despite his many years there, in his home town/area, as well as having been a high-level racing exec elsewhere)

[thespaah]

If the race were on the board in Vegas probably both go at -110. In horse racing, but go at -167. Who in his right mind would bet that?
If in the opinion of the oddsmakers the horses were evenly matched, yes.
To answer your question....No one.

[therussmeister]

You have a link that shows he is out at Canterbury? Even better does it say due to the takeout drop?
It was reported by DRF in mid December that he was out at Canterbury, but the same article said the takeout experiment was still being evaluated, so I don't know if the takeout drop has anything to do with his employment status.

[davew]

If in the opinion of the oddsmakers the horses were evenly matched, yes.
To answer your question....No one.

Except the people that felt one of them was going to win 75% of time.


Many people separate takeout from breakage, but the result is the same - less money going to winners of bet.

They have tried match-ups in southern California with a couple 'designated' horses in a race - how many times do you have to get back $3.40 for $2 on a coin-flip before you realize you are an idiot?

[cj]

Except the people that felt one of them was going to win 75% of time.


Many people separate takeout from breakage, but the result is the same - less money going to winners of bet.

They have tried match-ups in southern California with a couple 'designated' horses in a race - how many times do you have to get back $3.40 for $2 on a coin-flip before you realize you are an idiot?

Obviously breakage shows up more in these spots, but takeout is the much bigger culprit. Even if there were no breakage the lines would look much worse for horse racing than a one on one bet in Vegas. They'd be nowhere near -110. What, maybe -140/-150?

[AndyC]

Obviously breakage shows up more in these spots, but takeout is the much bigger culprit. Even if there were no breakage the lines would look much worse for horse racing than a one on one bet in Vegas. They'd be nowhere near -110. What, maybe -140/-150?

More like -119, using a 16% takeout rate.

[cj]

More like -119, using a 16% takeout rate.

Race was at Fair Grounds, so 17%.

[ronsmac]

More like -119, using a 16% takeout rate. A minus 119 line is about an 8% takeout. 238 risked for a 219 return. A -150 line is about 16.7%. 300 risked for a 250 return. These are football lines of course.

[cj]

Race was at Fair Grounds, so 17%.

I'm not expert on Vegas lines, never thought of it much that way, so I'll work through it and tell me where I'm wrong.

Two horse race, even chances, 500 bet on each so 1000 pool. After takeout, 830 left for the winning bets, so 830 / 250 = payoff of 3.32 per $2. To win 100, I'd have to bet how much?

Seems to me it is 1.32 I win for every $2 bet, or 66 cents per dollar. So I'd have to bet 151 or so to win 100. Isn't that -151?

[ronsmac]

I'm not expert on Vegas lines, never thought of it much that way, so I'll work through it and tell me where I'm wrong.

Two horse race, even chances, 500 bet on each so 1000 pool. After takeout, 830 left for the winning bets, so 830 / 250 = payoff of 3.32 per $2. To win 100, I'd have to bet how much?

Seems to me it is 1.32 I win for every $2 bet, or 66 cents per dollar. So I'd have to bet 151 or so to win 100. Isn't that -151?I believe AndyC is talking about an SP line in horse racing which is different than a las vegas betting line.

[cj]

I believe AndyC is talking about an SP line in horse racing which is different than a las vegas betting line.

I don't know what that is and mentioned Vegas line originally. Doesn't matter really, no way is breakage near the problem takeout is, that was my point. Every check I've ever done shows breakage, on average, adds about 1% to takeout. Of course individual races vary and the lower the price the more effect breakage has percentage wise on your payout.

[ronsmac]

I don't know what that is and mentioned Vegas line originally. Doesn't matter really, no way is breakage near the problem takeout is, that was my point. Every check I've ever done shows breakage, on average, adds about 1% to takeout. Of course individual races vary and the lower the price the more effect breakage has percentage wise on your payout.Starting Price but like you said, it doesn't matter.

[AndyC]

A minus 119 line is about an 8% takeout. 238 risked for a 219 return. A -150 line is about 16.7%. 300 risked for a 250 return. These are football lines of course.

You are certainly correct. It must have been a rounding error, I was only off by 32.5!