Getting good at handicapping is like getting good at chess

[fishorsechess]

You can figure out from my handle what my interests are.
In Andy Beyers "Picking Winners" he has a chapter
on The Logic of Illogic. As a chessplayer, I have notice
that the more difficult moves to see over the board are
those that might seem illogical even ridiculous to an
amateur player but not a chess master. The same goes
for handicapping the horses. The pro plays horses that
might to the public seem to go against logic fooling
the public. The article I read in the DRF states a friend
of the pro handicapper mention in that article states
"He sees things (in the Form) that we don't".

[Macdiarmadillo]

That pro may have seriously studied, say, 60,000 races (8 races x 5 days x 50 weeks x 3 tracks x 10 years) in the time the casual player with some interest studied, say, 2,500 races (5 races x 1 day x 25 weeks x 2 tracks x 10 years). Lots of experience and paying attention goes a long way. A pro would be very attuned to biases, who's hot and who's not. He may have pace or other figs, self-generated or bought. Very uncommon for a weekend warrior to be so armed. Special situations may dictate a play that goes against the normal grain, like certain very low percentage trainers that win the first or the last week of a meet only. If it appears mystical, it's likely it's more from using info that's NOT in the DRF.

And sometimes the obvious is all that's there to see, proven by nearly all chalk horses winning during the day and cheap exactas.

[ranchwest]

Yes, picking horses has some similarities to playing chess.

For one thing, experience is a huge advantage.

When I was in college, my fraternity little brother was a chess whiz. One day we played speed chess. Well, I knew which way the pieces moved and that was about it. Playing speed chess against someone with a huge experience edge is about like a beginner trying to hit a superfecta with one straight selection. It could happen, but you'll probably be waiting a long time for it to transpire. The experienced handicapper knows that one super ticket is probably not going to cut it.

[CapperLou]

It seems to me that some of the observations made on this thread are quite true.

It takes years of experience in racing, less in chess and poker! In racing, it is very helpful to "be there" and get to see everything that is important--before race, during race and after race. Some of the best plays I get come from seeing those things that "weekend warriors" don't even consider and are clueless.

In poker and chess, you will find that most of the top players have genius IQ's, are highly educated most of the time and in some cases have incredible photographic memories. One good example of that would be the well known tournament player, Chris (Jesus) Ferguson from California. He fits this bill. Another example would be the young sensation out of Texas, Thunder Keller, who won one of the WSOP events this year--he is a graduate of Stanford University & also has a "genius" IQ.

I am familiar with chess and poker because CapperLou Jr fits this description and also won one of the WSOP events this year. No bragging here, but my Son has the genius IQ and a photographic memory just as I do.

It took me decades to be able to "beat the horses". I will tell you that the only way to "beat" the horses is on a spot play basis or hit and run----session type playing!!!

And, you have to have spent as others have suggested earlier years and years of concentration and knowing many many nuances and signs that appear from card to card (bias & track condition etc).

Even today, if you read some of my past posts on various threads, you will see that it is a continuing learning experience--you constantly have to keep up with the tracks you play to know everything there is to know. Things are always changing--they never stay the same for too long and you have to be able to recognize the changes in patterns, trainers, riders, etc.

It's like any other business---you have to put your heart into it to be successful or get your ass out!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[betchatoo]

It seems to me that beating the horses is in many ways tougher than chess, because the game is always changing (some times track bias will change within the course of the afternoon) and handicappers have to be constantly aware of these change. You need to be totally flexible in your thinking.

And in handicapping you have to beat 2 opponents, the other handicappers and the track take out. It's hard work, but it is so much fun. There are very few feelings as good as hitting a cold $100 exacta, or singling a $20 horse in a pick 3.

[CapperLou]

It's the takeout stupid----it's the takeout!!!!!!

Just ask Gordon Pine about the takeout!!

Some of the great poker players think that guys who play the horses are idiots because they know or feel that only a minute number of handicappers can BEAT THE TAKEOUT!!! They happen to be correct.

The takeouts are unreal---and so many ignorant players still play the exotics with higher takeouts too. Most of these folks are simply "action players'. They just want action--they really do not care about being profitable--it's the same as players in the casinos going up against high vigorish games. They crave action!!!

I know some horse players who can win without the 14% to 18% takeout, but that's what defeats them in the end. You have to be a great horse picker and also have to have a little lady luck to beat the takeout on a consistent basis.

All the best,

CapperLou

[sq764]

Capperlou, there is a takeout in poker too, let's not forget.

[Valuist]

Re: takeout on exotics, lets not forget that on P3s and P4s there's one takeout spread out over 3 or 4 events. A 24% takeout in a Pic 3 is equivalent to an 8% single race takeout and a 24% takeout on a Pic 4 is a 6% per race takeout.

[CapperLou]

Thank you for mentioning the pick 3 and 4. I forgot to point that out previously. The pick 3 is a nice wager---it's the favorite play of three jockey agents whom I know!!! Interesting!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[betchatoo]

Originally posted by CapperLou
It's the takeout stupid----it's the takeout!!!!!!

Just ask Gordon Pine about the takeout!!

Some of the great poker players think that guys who play the horses are idiots because they know or feel that only a minute number of handicappers can BEAT THE TAKEOUT!!! They happen to be correct.

The takeouts are unreal---and so many ignorant players still play the exotics with higher takeouts too. Most of these folks are simply "action players'. They just want action--they really do not care about being profitable--it's the same as players in the casinos going up against high vigorish games. They crave action!!!

I know some horse players who can win without the 14% to 18% takeout, but that's what defeats them in the end. You have to be a great horse picker and also have to have a little lady luck to beat the takeout on a consistent basis.

All the best,

CapperLou


CapperLou:
i do understand about takeout and that they are higher in exotics. I have been playing this game for more than 35 years and while I don't do it exclusively, I have managed to make a nice bit of extra pocket money playing the horses (and yes, I keep extensive records of my play)

More than the takeout, though, to me this game is about value. When you can pick a race where the favorite or 2 favorites are very likely to come out of the money, it is worth an investment in exotics. The successful player just needs to know that value doesn't happen every race. Patience isn't only a virtue, it is a neccesity if don't want to go busted.

May the Gods of racing smile upon you

[CapperLou]

Getting value is what it's all about--I agree with you!!!

That's why you have to wait for spots, have great patience and discipline and know how to manage a bankroll. I should note that I have been around this game a long time just over 40 yrs (cannot believe how time goes by). It has only been just over 15 yrs that I have been able to be profitable almost every year and brother--it took and takes a lot of hard work and concentration.

Like yourself, it has been a nice supplement, but remember that no one can "get rich" with this game!!! I've seen them all come and go from the east coast to California. It's a tough game!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Noticed you are a new poster to this board--are you in USA or overseas? Just curious--lots of smart horse people elsewhere too!!!

Leaving for track now--visit stable area today--then over to make a couple of profitable wagers with the Racing G-d's help!!

[betchatoo]

P.S. Noticed you are a new poster to this board--are you in USA or overseas? Just curious--lots of smart horse people elsewhere too!!!

I'm a Chicago boy, now living in the burbs (about 20 minutes from Arlington Park) Just found this site and I'm perusing it often. I'm a junkie for learning more and more about the game. As I said in an earlier post, it's constantly changing and anything i can pick up that will let me stay ahead of the crowd is a major plus

[Fastracehorse]

....I called handicappping: 'Chess with excitement.'

Not that chess isn't exciting :)

fffastt

[sq764]

Yes, when I see rook take queen, it really gets my juices flowing..

...almost as much as watching a soccer game end 0-0

[GameTheory]

For those that don't think chess is exciting enough:

http://www.kungfuchess.com/

[kenwoodallpromos]

Playing chess or capping for fun vs. seriously- seeing the patterns or flow of the game or pp's and scenerio makes a big difference.
In chess the board does not change either.

[bettheoverlay]

Seems different to me. In chess, one is an active participant in the actual game, determining its outcome.

In horse race gambling, you are on the sidelines, and have no control of the outcome, dependent on a bunch of dumb animals running around in a circle, and their riders.

Although if you are a successful gambler, you may have earned the right to believe you effect the outcome by your prescience.

[CapperLou]

You are right on the money!!! Very well stated and true!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by CapperLou
It took me decades to be able to "beat the horses". I will tell you that the only way to "beat" the horses is on a spot play basis or hit and run----session type playing!!!

Why is it the only way? Just because you can't bet numerous races and win with your high IQ and photographic memory, doesn't mean there aren't others who do it VERY successfully.

It is just like a golfer who thinks he's a long hitter standing on the tee of a 600 yard par 5 and saying because he hasn't got home in 2 in over a 100 tries, that nobody can. Meanwhile, there are guys who can get there with driver - 4 iron easily.

For me, spot plays would "only" squash my profits.

[Holy Bull]

I used to be a chess player...not really that similar in any way. Horses are great because you hold all the cards, you can choose when and what you want to play and can sit out any race you don't like. Also you can make many mistakes and still come out fine in the end.

Chess is a game of mental concentration and focus. 1 mistake and you lose and you have to maintain focus every move.
Also chess is a game of complete information vs. a game of incomplete information. Makes it far more a science than an art like horse betting.

[JustMissed]

Nice post Bet. Very observant and on point.

JM

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by CapperLou
Like yourself, it has been a nice supplement, but remember that no one can "get rich" with this game!!! I've seen them all come and go from the east coast to California. It's a tough game!!!

Another beautiful proclamation.:rolleyes:

What do "no one" or "get rich" mean? I'm confused. You must have a different dictionary than I do. :confused:

[InsideThePylons-MW]

My accurate proclamation.

"CapperLou can't get rich with this game because of his level of ability which limits him to spot plays in which he bets almost exclusively win and rarely will throw in the occassional exacta."

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Why is it the only way? Just because you can't bet numerous races and win with your high IQ and photographic memory, doesn't mean there aren't others who do it VERY successfully.

It is just like a golfer who thinks he's a long hitter standing on the tee of a 600 yard par 5 and saying because he hasn't got home in 2 in over a 100 tries, that nobody can. Meanwhile, there are guys who can get there with driver - 4 iron easily.

For me, spot plays would "only" squash my profits. I said very much the same thing to you a few times (that YOUR way wasn't the only way) but you kept calling any disagreement "nonsense". Now all the sudden there are many paths to nirvana...

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I never said my way was the only way. I argued that my way was the best/better way.

[CapperLou]

You are entitled to your opinion(s)!!!-----As I am!!!!

I would ask you if you know anyone personally who has made at least a million bucks and kept it playing many races or however you play.

Everyone is entitled to play their own way---that's what makes it possible for some of us to win most of the time.

Obviously, if one were to play too much, one would be betting against oneself etc.

And by the way, I do play a few exactas, not many, but only when the odds are long on my top horse.

Good luck to you---everyone has his own way of making money and I'm not complaining about what I have been able to accomplish!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by CapperLou
I would ask you if you know anyone personally who has made at least a million bucks and kept it playing many races or however you play.

C'mon Lou. You can ask tougher questions than that. :D

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
I never said my way was the only way. I argued that my way was the best/better way.

For who?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by ranchwest
For who?

Not for who, but to win/extract the most money.

Isn't that the idea?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

ROFLMAO!

Oh my.......:rolleyes: :eek: