FORMULA'S TOTE BOARD FORMULA

[formula_2002]

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL.

01/01/2017
THE FORMULA
[
(EXP((Y1+Y2+Y3) X (Z1+Z2+Z3))^2)/1000 = FACTOR

[AT THIS TIME, A WIN PLAY SHOULD BE MADE WHEN FACTOR IS >=5.
AT THIS TIME, A 3 HORSE PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAY SHOULD BE MADE WHEN FACTOR IS <1.
I’LL POST FACTOR AND PLAYS LIVE WITH APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUETS TO POST TIME.
CURRENTLY, I’M USING THE FACTOR AS BET SIZE FOR THE WIN PLAY, AND SOME OTHER STUFF FOR THE PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET SIZE.
IT MAY TURN OUT THAT A FLAT BET SIZE PERFORMS AS WELL AS ALL OF THE ABOVE
Y= TO BE ANNOUNCED IN THE FUTURE
Z= TO BE ANNOUNCED IN THE FUTURE

FUN WITH FORMULAS

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
8

Post
9:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,197 "
pgno bet size
4 0.44
8 0.35
10 0.21
betting interest 14

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
8

Post
9:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,197 "
pgno bet size
8 0.55
10 0.33
12 0.11
betting interest 13

[formula_2002]

The favorite was not to be played, I therefore am allowed to look for a 3 horse proportional odds play.

I recognized the 1st post was based on an very unbalanced top choice, so I delete that horse (#13) from the mix.
That left me with another 3 horse proportional odds play,

the 8 ran 2nd and the 13 I think ran 4th

my 4th choice in a field of 13 was the winner, #7

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
9

Post
10:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,893 "
pgno bet size
1 0.35
4 0.34
6 0.30
betting interest 11

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,462 "
pgno bet size
9 $5.90

betting interest 9

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
6

Post
2:32

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$35,721 "
pgno bet size
6 $12.42

betting interest 7

[formula_2002]

back to back winners
3rd choice in the betting
$1 returns $3.60

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
10

Post
5:07

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$18,839 "
pgno bet size
5 $4.68

betting interest 9
factor 5

[formula_2002]

three-peat

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:10

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$54,680 "
pgno bet size
4 $39.56

betting interest 4
factor 40

[formula_2002]

four-pete

[formula_2002]

"Northfield
Race
10

Post
9:14

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,330 "
pgno bet size
2 $4.73

betting interest 9
factor 5

[formula_2002]

five-pete

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
4

Post
9:39

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,946 "
pgno bet size
3 $15.69

betting interest 5
factor 16

[formula_2002]

six-pete

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
5

Post
2:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$54,890 "
pgno bet size
3 $6.67

betting interest 7
factor 7

[formula_2002]

seven - pete

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
6

Post
2:50

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$56,362 "
pgno bet size
5 0.55
2 0.30
3 0.16
betting interest 12
factor 1

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
7

Post
3:13

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$17,248 "
pgno bet size
7 0.53
10 0.28
6 0.19
betting interest 10
factor 0.3

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
7

Post
3:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$70,497 "
pgno bet size
8 0.27
5 0.39
3 0.34
betting interest 12
factor 0.1


sorted the data incorrectly
here is correct play.. this is not a red line, it's a blush line. :)

"Aqueduct
Race
7

Post
3:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$70,497 "
pgno bet size
3 0.43
1 0.25
7 0.32
betting interest 12
factor 0.2

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
7

Post
3:36

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$27,519 "
pgno bet size
5 0.39
4 0.37
1 0.25
betting interest 9
factor 1.0

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
8

Post
3:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$63,054 "
pgno bet size
3 $20.49

betting interest 7
factor 20

[formula_2002]

win pool winning streak is broken a 7 wins in a row.
NOW THE WIN SYSTEM REALLY GETS TESTED

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
8

Post
4:05

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,596 "
pgno bet size
5 $12.89

betting interest 6
factor 13




screwed up again


"Laurel
Race
8

Post
4:05

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,596 "
pgno bet size
1 $12.89

betting interest 6
factor 13

[formula_2002]

back into the winners circle :)

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
9

Post
4:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$53,591 "
pgno bet size
8 $6.55

betting interest 6
factor 7

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
4

Post
5:04

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$107,580 "
pgno bet size
7 0.33
6 0.35
10 0.31
betting interest 10
factor 1.1

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
7

Post
5:09

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,539 "
pgno bet size
3 $6.50

betting interest 6
factor 6

[formula_2002]

lost 2 of the last three.
$3 flat bet returned $1.90

factor bet $26 returned $24.70

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
8

Post
5:34

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$25,038 "
pgno bet size
3 $5.63

betting interest 8
factor 6

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
5

Post
5:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,390 "
pgno bet size
5 $5.35

betting interest 7
factor 5

[formula_2002]

racing canceled



"Fair Grounds
Race
8

Post
5:34

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$25,038 "
pgno bet size
3 $5.63

betting interest 8
factor 6

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
6

Post
6:07

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$78,753 "
pgno bet size
4 0.45
7 0.25
8 0.29
betting interest 10
factor 0.3

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
6

Post
6:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$32,061 "
pgno bet size
5 $11.15

betting interest 8
factor 11

[formula_2002]

aqu 7 proportional odds winning play

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
8

Post
7:22

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$26,926 "
pgno bet size
4 0.43
5 0.30
1 0.27
betting interest 9
factor 0.2

[formula_2002]

results through 01-02-2107

[formula_2002]

"UK Musselburgh
Race
7

Post
10:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,168 "
pgno bet size
6 0.12
7 0.17
1 0.17

[formula_2002]

"UK Newcastle
Race
4

Post
10:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,005 "
pgno bet size
6 $20

betting interest 5
factor 1553

[formula_2002]

"SAF Vaal
Race
8

Post
10:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,565 "
pgno bet size
8 $7.02

betting interest 7
factor 7

[formula_2002]

three for three to day , 2 win plays and 1 proportional odds play

[formula_2002]

"Mahoning Valley
Race
3

Post
1:40

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$18,983 "
pgno bet size
3 0.35
7 0.30
2 0.35
betting interest 8
factor 0.8

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
1

Post
2:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,387 "
pgno bet size
5 $16.99

betting interest 7
factor 17

[formula_2002]

in the "Bling" of the eye 3/5 down to 1/5.. and wins

[formula_2002]

"Mahoning Valley
Race
9

Post
4:24

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$17,856 "
pgno bet size
3 0.41
5 0.32
4 0.27
betting interest 12
factor 0.6

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
7

Post
5:21

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$12,745 "
pgno bet size
8 0.27
3 0.51
7 0.22
betting interest 9
factor 1.3

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
8

Post
5:47

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,494 "
pgno bet size
2 $12.47

betting interest 7
factor 12

[formula_2002]

ho hum another winner :cool:

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
9

Post
6:15

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,444 "
pgno bet size
4 $11.20

betting interest 9
factor 11

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$30,303 "
pgno bet size
2 $7.23

betting interest 8
factor 7

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

this is a bet against the favorite


"Gulfstream
Race
3

Post
1:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$16,302 "
pgno bet size
5 0.30
3 0.39
6 0.31
betting interest 8
factor 1.0

[formula_2002]

correction


"Gulfstream
Race
4

Post
2:05

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$37,466 "
pgno bet size
1 0.38
10 0.30
9 0.33
betting interest 10
factor 0.9

[formula_2002]

more often than not, the three horse proportional odds play is a bet against what becomes the final tote board favorite.

[formula_2002]

more often than not, the three horse proportional odds play is a bet against what becomes the final tote board favorite.

that race had its interesting points
the favorite in the win pool became the #1 horse
the winning #3 horse was second in the win pool and 1st in the place and show pools see attached

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:37

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$36,186 "
pgno bet size
10 0.44
3 0.36
1 0.20
betting interest 11
factor 0.5

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
6

Post
3:08

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$38,778 "
pgno bet size
6 0.45
8 0.30
2 0.25
betting interest 10
factor 1.5

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
4:12

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$37,067 "
pgno bet size
3 0.35
2 0.25
7 0.41
betting interest 11
factor 0.3

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
9

Post
4:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$49,962 "
pgno bet size
2 0.21
6 0.32
8 0.47
betting interest 11
factor 2.0

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Turfway
Race
2

Post
6:45

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$11,556 "
1 0.00
2 0.11
3 0.10
4 0.12
5 0.13
6 0.08
7 0.13
8 0.15
9 0.00
10 0.00
11 0.00
12 0.00
13 0.00
14 0.00
15 0.00
16 0.00
0.81

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
5

Post
9:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,769 "
pgno bet size
2 0.40
3 0.24
4 0.36
betting interest 7
factor 1.6

[formula_2002]

"SAF Vaal
Race
9

Post
9:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,674 "
pgno bet size
6 0.40
7 0.34
4 0.26
betting interest 12
factor 0.1

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
6

Post
10:10

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,781 "
pgno bet size
1 $633.23

betting interest 4
factor 633

[formula_2002]

win pool winner

[formula_2002]

clash of the titans



"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$27,800 "
pgno bet size
3 $11.69

betting interest 9
factor 12

[formula_2002]

another clash of the titans



"Aqueduct
Race
2

Post
12:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$15,437 "
pgno bet size
1 $16.25

betting interest 5
factor 16

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
4

Post
2:02

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$42,522 "
pgno bet size
1 $6.94

betting interest 9
factor 7

[formula_2002]

aqu r2 win pool winner

[formula_2002]

"UK Chelmsford City
Race
4

Post
2:15

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,871 "
pgno bet size
2 $6.35

betting interest 8
factor 6

[formula_2002]

win pool winner gp r4

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
1

Post
2:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,583 "
pgno bet size
2 $55.66

betting interest 4
factor 56

[formula_2002]

win pool winner

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:34

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$68,683 "
pgno bet size
1 $4.91

betting interest 9
factor 5

[formula_2002]

win pool winning streak is broken a 7 wins in a row.
NOW THE WIN SYSTEM REALLY GETS TESTED

since that note:
8 win pool wins in 17 races = 45% winners
flat bet profit was -18$
factor bet size profit was 19%

I place an arbitrary factor bet size cap of 60

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
2

Post
2:51

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,369 "
pgno bet size
7 $5.78

betting interest 7
factor 6

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
6

Post
3:06

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$43,751 "
pgno bet size
4 $6.54

betting interest 8
factor 7

[formula_2002]

win pool winner

[formula_2002]

for fun

gp r9

325 ex bx
325/8 ex

interpretation ? I don't like the favorite

[formula_2002]

for fun

gp r9

325 ex bx
325/8 ex

interpretation ? I don't like the favorite
3/5 fav runs out

[formula_2002]

BIG ONE



"Delta
Race
2

Post
7:06

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,277 "
pgno bet size
1 $25.04

betting interest 5
factor 25

[formula_2002]

win pool winner!! 6 for 10 on the day
20% profit
double digit factors:
4 for 5
58% profit

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
4

Post
7:24

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,195 "
pgno bet size
1 $8.64

betting interest 7
factor 9

[formula_2002]

win pool winner

[formula_2002]

big power play


"Delta
Race
8

Post
9:51

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,202 "
pgno bet size
5 $389.31

betting interest 4
factor 389

[lamboguy]

big power play


"Delta
Race
8

Post
9:51

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,202 "
pgno bet size
5 $389.31

betting interest 4
factor 389


i am in shock that you didn't win that one! if you gave me the money to play the eventual winner i couldn't have placed the bet

[formula_2002]

"Turfway
Race
9

Post
10:16

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$11,485 "
pgno bet size
6 $9.17

betting interest 7
factor 9

[formula_2002]

i am in shock that you didn't win that one! if you gave me the money to play the eventual winner i couldn't have placed the bet


me too

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
10

Post
10:44

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,389 "
pgno bet size
10 $5.33

betting interest 6
factor 5

[formula_2002]

todays results

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
1

Post
11:05

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,521 "
pgno bet size
1 $8.97

betting interest 11
factor 9

[formula_2002]

I'll introduce a special bet size
it will equal .001% of the win pool dollar value of the pgno horse x the factor value.

Also I will concentrate on those races with a competive favorite.
Akin tof Fabricand's "theory of maximum confusion" :cool:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
2

Post
11:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,787 "


the favorite # 1 is not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
2

Post
11:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,787 "


the favorite # 1 is not to be bet

the 4/5 # 1 wins :confused: (not really confused)

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
1

Post
12:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$23,958 "
pgno bet size
2 $9.35

betting interest 6
factor 9
special bet size 84

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,831 "

the fav # 6 is not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
4

Post
12:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,039 "


the fav # 2 is not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,831 "

the fav # 6 is not to be bet
#6 even money fav ran 2nd

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
2

Post
12:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$16,859 "
pgno bet size
4 $80.28

betting interest 5
factor 80
special bet size 1232 1232

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
4

Post
12:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,039 "


the fav # 2 is not to be bet

the 2-1 #2 ran out

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
4

Post
1:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$48,240 "


the fav #1 is not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
4

Post
1:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$48,240 "


the fav #1 is not to be bet


the 9/5 fav, #1 ran out

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:34

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$51,447 "

fav #7 is not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
8

Post
2:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,118 "


#12 fav not to be bet

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:34

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$51,447 "

fav #7 is not to be bet
this 2-1 fav ran out

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
8

Post
5:34

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,643 "
pgno bet size
12 $8.92

betting interest 6
factor 9
special bet size 23 23

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
8

Post
2:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,118 "


#12 fav not to be bet

even money fav ran out

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:34

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$51,447 "

fav #7 is not to be bet
2-1 fav ran out

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
2

Post
7:07

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,716 "
pgno bet size
1 $10.33

betting interest 6
factor 10
special bet size 27 27

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
5

Post
11:52

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,695 "

don't bet the fav #6

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
5

Post
11:52

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,695 "

don't bet the fav #6
the 4/5 fav #6 ran out of the money

[formula_2002]

results year to date

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:06

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$81,639 "

dot bet the fav # 10

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:06

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$81,639 "

dot bet the fav # 10
void that.. 10 was not he fav

[formula_2002]

talk about bridge jumper races.
these results should be interesting
results

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
5

Post
8:32

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,374 "
pgno bet size
8 $53.08

betting interest 5
factor 53
special bet size 121 121

[formula_2002]

winner. beats the 6/5 second choice

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$26,332 "

I not saying to bet against the#2 fav, I'm saying it's a bad bet

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$26,332 "

I not saying to bet against the#2 fav, I'm saying it's a bad bet
2# 2 wins by a neck at 2/5

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
1

Post
12:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,381 "
pgno bet size
2 $21.95

betting interest 5
factor 22
special bet size 143

[formula_2002]

my 8/5 pick wins over the other 8/5 horse by a lot

[formula_2002]

YIKES!



"Golden Gate Fields
Race
2

Post
4:18

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,050 "
pgno bet size
9 $35.08

betting interest 6
factor 35
special bet size 478 478

[formula_2002]

YIKES!



"Golden Gate Fields
Race
2

Post
4:18

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,050 "
pgno bet size
9 $35.08

betting interest 6
factor 35
special bet size 478 478



I HAVE A 60 UNIT CAP ON THE FACTOR BET SIZE. I NEED TO ESTABLISH A CAP ON THE SPECIAL BET SIZE.THAT LAST RACE WAS TOO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. FOR NOW i'LL MAKE IT 10 X FACTOR

[formula_2002]

CORRECTION


"Golden Gate Fields
Race
4

Post
5:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,219 "
pgno bet size
6 $14.88

betting interest 6
factor 15
special bet size 15

[formula_2002]

CORRECTION


"Golden Gate Fields
Race
4

Post
5:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,219 "
pgno bet size
6 $14.88

betting interest 6
factor 15
special bet size 15


CHANHE SPECTIAL BET SIZE TO 30

[formula_2002]

void there is no #2


"Santa Anita
Race
6

Post
6:13

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$68,717 "
pgno bet size
2 $159.08

betting interest 7
factor 159
special bet size 326

[formula_2002]

OH BOY!!



"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:11

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$84,834 "
pgno bet size
3 $51.38

betting interest 5
factor 51
special bet size 3184 3184

[formula_2002]

MY EVEN MONEY PICK BEATS OT THE 4/5 FAVORITE

[formula_2002]

since posted note # 78

40 win pool races, 22 wins for 55%
flat bet profit was 5%
factor profit was 20%

there were 9 special bet plays, 6 won for 66%
a special bet profit of 37%

there were 22 races where the factor size was >=10, 15 of those races won for 68%
a 30% flat bet profit
a 26% factor profit

cap size on factor bet size is 60
cap on special bet size is factor x 10

[formula_2002]

if one expects profits picking short priced horses, it would be wise to indicate other short priced that fail to win in accordance with their true win probability. the greater difference between the two, the more reliable the profit.

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
3

Post
1:27

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$16,101 "


don't bet the favorite #1

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
3

Post
1:27

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$16,101 "


don't bet the favorite #1

#1, even money favorite, runs out of the money

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
1

Post
2:40

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,907 "
pgno bet size
3 $21.50

betting interest 8
factor 22
special bet size 8 8

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
5

Post
4:33

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,485 "
pgno bet size
3 $13.89

betting interest 9
factor 14
special bet size 5 5

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
7

Post
5:31

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$17,599 "

don't bet the fav #5

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
2

Post
3:12

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,227 "
pgno bet size
5 $5.07

betting interest 7
factor 5
special bet size 16 16

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
7

Post
3:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,205 "
pgno bet size
1 $5.32

betting interest 9
factor 5
special bet size 31

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
3

Post
3:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,966 "
pgno bet size
1 $82.59

betting interest 8
factor 83
special bet size 347 347

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
8

Post
4:02

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$25,851 "
pgno bet size
1 $5.13

betting interest 10
factor 5
special bet size 29 29

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
4:17

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$47,880 "
pgno bet size
9 $18.34

betting interest 7
factor 18
special bet size 271 271

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
1

Post
6:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,255 "
pgno bet size
8 $5.51

betting interest 7
factor 6
special bet size 15 15

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
3

Post
7:33

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,221 "
pgno bet size
4 $26.94

betting interest 5
factor 27
special bet size 55 55

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
4

Post
5:15

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$16,497 "
pgno bet size
4 $9.35

betting interest 6
factor 9
special bet size 50

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
1

Post
6:00

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$10,759 "
pgno bet size
1 $9.89

betting interest 8
factor 10
special bet size 34

[formula_2002]

winner. who would have won the this race if the horse that finished 1st was DQ'd and place , say last?

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
1

Post
7:00

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,895 "
pgno bet size
8 $5.81

betting interest 10
factor 6
special bet size 9

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
5

Post
7:57

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$9,955 "
pgno bet size
5 $5.54

betting interest 7
factor 6
special bet size 12 12

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
5

Post
8:28

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,744 "
pgno bet size
7 $6.29

betting interest 7
factor 6
special bet size 18 18

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
6

Post
8:51

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,542 "
pgno bet size
8 $11.86

betting interest 5
factor 12
special bet size 13 13

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
5

Post
9:00

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,364 "
pgno bet size
7 $8.08

betting interest 7
factor 8
special bet size 7 7

[formula_2002]

winner
ct r5 $1 bet returned $1.80

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
4

Post
2:28

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$18,244 "
pgno bet size
3 $4.13

betting interest 7
factor 4
special bet size 15 15

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
8

Post
3:54

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$16,603 "
pgno bet size
6 $8.57

betting interest 7
factor 9
special bet size 30 30

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
3

Post
4:44

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,102 "
pgno bet size
6 $16.86

betting interest 6
factor 17
special bet size 51 51

[traveler]

exciting stuff

[formula_2002]

exciting stuff
except for the last 17 races it was brilliant :)

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
5

Post
6:01

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$38,425 "
pgno bet size
6 $20.07

betting interest 5
factor 20
special bet size 407

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

A WIN HERE WILL MORE THANH SQUARE TEH BETTING OF THE LAST 17 RACES.


"Santa Anita
Race
6

Post
6:32

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$49,541 "
pgno bet size
3 $31.64

betting interest 7
factor 32
special bet size 869

[formula_2002]

WHILE WATCHING THE RACE I THOUGHT I WAS ON THE 6 :eek:

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
3

Post
7:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,155 "
pgno bet size
6 $18.53

betting interest 4
factor 19
special bet size 49 49

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:31

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$55,747 "
pgno bet size
3 $7.74

betting interest 7
factor 8
special bet size 175

[formula_2002]

over the last 20 or so races, more often than not, my 2nd choice won, giving me interest to tabulate the 2nd choice results, both for this thread and a separate data base of mine
WE ARE OFF TO SEE THE WONDERFUL WIZARD :)

[formula_2002]

over the last 20 or so races, more often than not, my 2nd choice won, giving me interest to tabulate the 2nd choice results, both for this thread and a separate data base of mine
WE ARE OFF TO SEE THE WONDERFUL WIZARD :)
the separate data base indicates no advantage.

[formula_2002]

here are a few numbers I have worked out for the top pick.
the flat bet return factor is 2 x the win %

so if the win % is 50% I would expect an return factor of 1.10, or 10% profit

[formula_2002]

WE BEGIN A LONG WINNING STREAK :cool:


"Aqueduct
Race
3

Post
1:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$57,846 "
pgno bet size
5 $9.94

betting interest 6
factor 10
special bet size 230 230 2.61

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
4

Post
1:55

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,859 "
pgno bet size
5 $5.33

betting interest 6
factor 5
special bet size 12

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
5

Post
2:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$74,334 "
pgno bet size
3 $12.48

betting interest 6
factor 12
special bet size 328 328 2.49

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
6

Post
2:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$72,372 "
pgno bet size
8 $9.64

betting interest 7
factor 10
special bet size 122

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
6

Post
2:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$61,051 "
pgno bet size
9 $9.37

betting interest 9
factor 9
special bet size 343 343 3.40

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:01

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$46,421 "


do not bet the fav #2

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:01

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$46,421 "


do not bet the fav #2

3/5 fav, #2 runs out

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
3:32

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$91,321 "


don't bet the fav #7

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
3:32

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$91,321 "


don't bet the fav #7

9/5 #7 wins

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
9

Post
4:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,052 "
pgno bet size
8 $4.71

betting interest 8
factor 5
special bet size 13

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
6

Post
4:39

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$52,435 "


don't bet the fav #5

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
3

Post
4:44

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,569 "
pgno bet size
4 $21.84

betting interest 5
factor 22
special bet size 77 77 2.39

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
6

Post
4:39

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$52,435 "


don't bet the fav #5

7/5 fav ran out

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
7

Post
6:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$73,981 "
pgno bet size
4 $6.36

betting interest 7
factor 6
special bet size 203 203 2.40

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:04

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$60,869 "
pgno bet size
3 $6.81

betting interest 6
factor 7
special bet size 208 208 2.63



alternate
"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:04

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$60,869 "
pgno bet size
3 0.55
1 0.45

[formula_2002]

ALTERNATE BET WINS RETURNING $1.55 ON THE DOLLAR

IN A SEPARATE DATA BASE THIS PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET OF MY TOP TWO PICKS RETURNED $98 CENT ON THE DOLLAR, WINNING 78% OF THE TIME

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
9

Post
7:34

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$93,572 "
pgno bet size
7 $30.83

betting interest 8
factor 31
special bet size 817
alternate
pgno bet size
7.00 0.40
2.00 0.60

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
5

Post
8:58

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,682 "
pgno bet size
3 $6.50

betting interest 6
factor 7
special bet size 4
alternate
pgno bet size
3.00 0.53
5.00 0.47

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
7

Post
9:13

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,938 "
pgno bet size
9 $815.19

betting interest 3
factor 815
special bet size 1127
alternate
pgno bet size
9 0.52
8 0.48

[formula_2002]

ALTERNATE WINS RETURNING $1.15 ON THE DOLLAR

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
3

Post
9:57

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,895 "
pgno bet size
4 $11.64

betting interest 8
factor 12
special bet size 36
alternate
pgno bet size
4 0.65
2 0.35

[formula_2002]

WINNER

[formula_2002]

WE BEGIN A LONG WINNING STREAK :cool:





9 WINS IN 14 PLAYS

[formula_2002]

GREAT DAY YESTERDAY
9 STRAIGHT WIN BETS IN 13 RACES. $1 BETS RETURNED $20.25 FOR A 56% PROFIT

THEY INCLUDED 5 PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAYS (ALTERNATES) 4 OF THOSE PLAYS WON. $1 BETS RETURNED $6.18 FOR A 24% PROFIT.

[formula_2002]

AFTER 82 POSTED RACES:
50% WINNERS
-1% FLAT BET ROI
9% FACTOR BET ROI
13% SPECIAL BET ROI

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,355 "
pgno bet size
2 $17

betting interest 8
factor $17
special bet size $228
alternate
pgno bet size
2 $79
6 $21
most conservative bet size is the alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
1

Post
12:20

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$36,450 "
pgno bet size
3 $12

betting interest 7
factor $12
special bet size $67
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $51
1 $49
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
2

Post
12:50

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,912 "
pgno bet size
3 $6

betting interest 6
factor $6
special bet size $56
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $52
6 $48
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
2

Post
12:54

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$16,589 "
pgno bet size
2 $14

betting interest 6
factor $14
special bet size $75
alternate
pgno bet size
2 $66
5 $34
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
3

Post
1:00

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$33,304 "
pgno bet size
3 $11

betting interest 7
factor $11
special bet size $82
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $55
9 $45
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

alternate winner $1 bet returns $1.46

[formula_2002]

winner $1 win bet returns $2.30, alternate bet returns $1.43

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
3

Post
1:20

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$47,075 "
pgno bet size
3 $26

betting interest 5
factor $26
special bet size $460
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $59
5 $41
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

alternate bet winner $1 bet returns $1.35

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
5

Post
2:20

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$66,277 "
pgno bet size
6 $7

betting interest 6
factor $7
special bet size $121
alternate
pgno bet size
6 $54
1 $46
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
1

Post
2:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,967 "
pgno bet size
1 $5

betting interest 8
factor $5
special bet size $32
alternate
pgno bet size
1 $54
4 $46
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

3rd rank horses have won a few races, therefor I'll open the "alternate " play to 3 horses. I'll also increase the alternate bet size by 100%
so the dollar cost for the 3 horse alternate in now $2

[formula_2002]

"Laurel
Race
6

Post
2:55

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,407 "
pgno bet size
3 $13

betting interest 6
factor $13
special bet size $39
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $105
6 $58
5 $37
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

$1 win returns $1.80, the $1 alternate play returned 11 cent loss

[formula_2002]

revised

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:05

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$67,456 "
pgno bet size
3 $1

betting interest 12
factor $1
special bet size $9
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $84
1 $57
6 $59
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
7

Post
3:20

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$46,967 "
pgno bet size
3 $15

betting interest 6
factor $15
special bet size $252
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $93
5 $65
1 $42
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

alternate "winner" $1 returned a 35 cent loss.

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
2

Post
4:03

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$54,229 "
pgno bet size
6 $34

betting interest 6
factor $34
special bet size $984
alternate
pgno bet size
6 $134
3 $66
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

$1 win bet returned $1.70 $1 alternate returned $1.27

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
2

Post
4:16

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,958 "
pgno bet size
2 $10

betting interest 6
factor $10
special bet size $40
alternate
pgno bet size
2 $119
1 $81
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

$2 alternate bet returned $2.26

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
3

Post
4:32

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$47,993 "
pgno bet size
3 $5

betting interest 6
factor $5
special bet size $75
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $100
1 $100
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
3

Post
4:45

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,916 "
pgno bet size
3 $13

betting interest 5
factor $13
special bet size $58
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $102
1 $98
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
1

Post
8:05

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,195 "
pgno bet size
7 $118

betting interest 7
factor $118
special bet size $540
alternate
pgno bet size
7 $120
6 $80
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

$1 win bet returned $1.50, $2 alternated bet returned $1.80
net gain, 30 cents on a $3 bet

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
2

Post
8:33

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,406 "
pgno bet size
1 $16

betting interest 7
factor $16
special bet size $87
alternate
pgno bet size
1 $135
4 $65
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

$1 win bet returned $1.50 $2 alternate bet returned $2.03
net gain of 53 cents on a $3 bet

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
3

Post
9:01

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,681 "
pgno bet size
3 $13

betting interest 6
factor $13
special bet size $45
alternate
pgno bet size
3 $111
2 $89
most conservative bet size is alternate bet
2x

[formula_2002]

YESTERDAY results
5 STRAIGHT WIN BETS IN 16 RACES. $1 BETS RETURNED $9 FOR A 45% loss

THEY INCLUDED 17 PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAYS (ALTERNATES) 8 OF THOSE PLAYS WON. $1 BETS RETURNED $9.71 FOR A 43% loss

[formula_2002]

"UK Ayr
Race
1

Post
8:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,752 "
pgno bet size
5 $14

betting interest 10
factor $14
special bet size $12
alternate
pgno bet size
5 $58
10 $42
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

YESTERDAY results
5 STRAIGHT WIN BETS IN 16 RACES. $1 BETS RETURNED $9 FOR A 45% loss

THEY INCLUDED 17 PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAYS (ALTERNATES) 8 OF THOSE PLAYS WON. $1 BETS RETURNED $9.71 FOR A 43% loss


with only 31% winners, the factor loss was 20 %

[formula_2002]

"UK Ayr
Race
2

Post
8:40

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,745 "
pgno bet size
1 $21

betting interest 5
factor $21
special bet size $36
alternate
pgno bet size factor
1 $57 $21
3 $43
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Fairview
Race
6

Post
9:10

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,615 "
pgno bet size
2 $9

betting interest 9
factor $9
special bet size $9
alternate
pgno bet size factor
2 $73 $9
7 $27
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Fairview
Race
7

Post
9:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,171 "
pgno bet size
1 $7

betting interest 7
factor $7
special bet size $11
alternate
pgno bet size
1 $62
6 $38
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

winners

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
3

Post
1:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$34,027 "
pgno bet size
7 $13

betting interest 5
factor $13
special bet size $158
alternate
pgno bet size
7 $63
5 $37
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
2

Post
4:14

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,394 "
pgno bet size
1 $14

betting interest 6
factor $14
special bet size $43
alternate
pgno bet size
1 $60
4 $40
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
9

Post
7:06

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$74,728 "
pgno bet size
6 0.43
7 0.29
3 0.28

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
8

Post
7:19

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$19,626 "
pgno bet size
7 0.39
3 0.32
5 0.28

[formula_2002]

two winners

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
10

Post
7:36

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$152,021 "
pgno bet size
8 0.41
11 0.27
2 0.32

[formula_2002]

yesterdays results (for races with FACTOR SIZE INDICATED)
ONLY 2 WINS IN 6 RACES.. ENOUGH SAID :) (I NEED A HIT RATE OF ABOUT 50%). AN ADDITIONAL WIN THAT HAD A $1 RETURN OF 1.7 WOULD HAVE PUT ME OVER THE TOP

[formula_2002]

"UK Kempton
Race
4

Post
10:40

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,651 "
pgno bet size
4 $13

betting interest 5
factor $13
special bet size $14
alternate
pgno bet size
4 $45
2 $18
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
3

Post
1:18

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$15,719 "
pgno bet size
5 $5

betting interest 7
factor $5
special bet size $24
alternate
pgno bet size
5 $52
6 $19
most conservative bet size is alternate bet

[formula_2002]

winner. hats off to the jockey Dylan Davis for that ride.
If the horse had his way, he would run to the rail.. the OUTSIDE rail.