HONG KONG-SHA TIN -SUN 1/1/17

[Nitro]

Happy New Year & Good evening to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in 10 of the 11 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:30 AM SAT. EST

TVG is offering live video for all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #4 - #6
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) Turf ...….4-1 w/ 3-7-11-5 ......11:30 PM EST


R#2 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......5-4 w/ 11-10-2-6 ….12:00 AM EST


R#3 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......2-3 w/ 9-6-10-4…....12:30 AM EST


R#4 - 1600M (8F) Turf….....5-3 w/ 4-10-7-2…….1:00 AM EST


R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf …....1-4 w/ 11-2-3-5……1:30 AM EST


R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......2-3 w/ 9-1-4-12 …...2:00 AM EST


R#7 - 1400M (7F) Turf ….....5-6 w/ 7-9-4-1..........2:35 AM EST


R#8 - 1400M (7F) Turf........1-4 w/ 5-3 ………....3:05 AM EST


R#9 - 1600M (8F) Turf........2-1 w/ 4-8-10-13…...3:35 AM EST


R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf......3-11 w/ 1-5-4-13.......4:10 AM EST


R#11 - 1200M (6F) Turf......3-1 w/ 6-2-9-5…......4:45 AM EST


GL if you’re playing!

[kevb]

Hello Nitro. Wishing you good health and good fortune in 2017.

[Nitro]

Hello Nitro. Wishing you good health and good fortune in 2017.
Hi there Kev! Same to you and yours buddy!

Let's make it a big year at HK.

I always get a kick out of reading the following on the HK Results page:
If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, all winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)


GL this morning!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 4-1 w/ 3-7-11-5

Live Tote Results: 2-9-13-11
Out Early & Live –

[rsetup]

Race 2

:10:, Ten Speed

:12:, Peace Combination

[Nitro]

A great start to the first race of the New Year!

R#2 - 5-4 w/ 11-10-2-6

Live Tote Results: 2-11-13-4
5th choice $13.30 Early & 2nd choice Live - $249.30 Quin

[Tee]

:3: & :7:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-3 w/ 9-6-10-4

Live Tote Results: 2-7-6-3
Top choice $4.40 Early & Live – Placer got good early action then drifted up

[Tee]

:4: :5:

[Nitro]

R#4 - 5-3 w/ 4-10-7-2

Live Tote Results: 5-7-10-2 All of that one!
Top choice $4.30 Early & Live - $10.00 Quin & $55.60 Tri

[Nitro]

R#3 - Dutch –
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.2 10.0 14.0 BET PRF
$4 $22 $30
$60 $12 $9 $81 $51 63%
$132 $132 $135

R#4 - Dutch –
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 9.0 37.0 BET PRF
$4 $20 $76
$76 $16 $4 $96 $63 66%
$160 $160 $160

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-4 w/ 11-2-3-5 - (No action on #3 - sub #6)

Live Tote Results: 6-11-1-4
Out Early & 5th choice $8.50 Live – $234.20 Tri Bx– Winner got good action throughout

[Tee]

:13:

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-3 w/ 9-1-4-12

Live Tote Results: 10-1-9-13
Out Early & Live

[CincyHorseplayer]

Partying over here at my house and I'm the odd man in darts! So I'm surfing the internet with good cheer! Happy New Year Nitro. Glad to know ya brother. Hope our initial conflict has transformed into a mutual and mutuel respect! :cool:

[Tee]

:2: :5:

[Nitro]

Partying over here at my house and I'm the odd man in darts! So I'm surfing the internet with good cheer! Happy New Year Nitro. Glad to know ya brother. Hope our initial conflict has transformed into a mutual and mutuel respect! :cool:
I passed on my brother-in-law’s get-together when I found out they were running HK this morning.
Our initial disagreement is ancient history and water under the bridge as far as I’m concerned.
Hope you have a great New Year’s party! :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R#7 - 5-6 w/ 7-9-4-1

Live Tote Results: 1-8-10-9
6th choice Early & 3rd choice $11.70 Live - Not much action on the LS Placer

[Tee]

:4: :6:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-4 w/ 5-3

Live Tote Results: 5-6-2-1
3rd choice $5.30 Early & 2nd choice Live – Winner got solid betting throughout

[CincyHorseplayer]

I passed on my brother-in-law’s get-together when I found out they were running HK this morning.
Our initial disagreement is ancient history and water under the bridge as far as I’m concerned.
Hope you have a great New Year’s party! :ThmbUp:

Hell yes. I figured as much. Just wanted to drop you off my theme song for my approach to the mutuel pools. I think it will be utmost agreeable. Kill em tonight brother!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yd972J6f4IY

[Tee]

:4:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 2-1 w/ 4-8-10-13

Live Tote Results: 12-2-4-14
Out Early & Live – No action on the Big LS winner

[CincyHorseplayer]

2 bombs in a row. Hope you got some of that!

[Nitro]

Hell yes. I figured as much. Just wanted to drop you off my theme song for my approach to the mutuel pools. I think it will be utmost agreeable. Kill em tonight brother!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yd972J6f4IY

That song is what I call a total attack on those pools!
Thanks. :ThmbUp:
It woke me right up too, and now I'm in full tilt for the last 2 races!

[Tee]

:5: / :3: :11:

[Nitro]

That song is what I call a total attack on those pools!
Thanks. :ThmbUp:
It woke me right up too, and now I'm in full tilt for the last 2 races!
R#10 - 3-11 w/ 1-5-4-13 – All of that one!

Live Tote Results: 3-13-11-1
Top choice $4.00 Early & Live – $19.20 Quin & $54.60 Tri

[Tee]

:3: / :7: :9: :10:

[Nitro]

R#11 - 3-1 w/ 6-2-9-5 (No action on #1)

Live Tote Results: 10-9-3-6
Out Early & 6th choice $23.10 Live & $784.80 Tri Bx - Good late action on the LS winner 15/1 to 11/1

Happy New Year! :jump:

[Nitro]

:3: / :7: :9: :10:

Nice Box call there Tee! That'll make it a good night! :ThmbUp: