Handicap a Cheapie: $3000 N1y/4L at Turf Paradise

[johnhannibalsmith]

Legal Disclaimers:

a) I don't like making new threads but didn't want to hijack the AQU TLG ROI EMD BFF super-thread for a rogue cowboy track.

b) I put that this race is a cheapie at Turf Paradise in the title. That way, if you hate Turf Paradise because it is crooked, or you would never seriously consider a field of $3000 nags, you don't even have to waste your time reading this post, much less tell us about it in a post of your own. Of course, if you've read this far, you've already made this backup plan worth the effort. Or maybe not. Guess we'll see.


Okay, maybe not a soul will look at this or if someone does not a soul will find themselves remotely interested but it is quintessential 2016 full field Turf bottom non-winners. Diodoro gets in on the non-four condition with one that he claimed for 8k and then parked in a $3500 non-three last time and what you have left is eleven opportunities.

This race seems like the key to my Monday play and I'm afraid my opinion is a little tainted. I'm hoping there's some opinions here from the wide variety of perspectives that we get here that might actually help me feel like I'm looking at this one from all angles.


TuP 1/2/17 R7 - The link below will take you to the BRIS PPs for the race. It's down just a little bit, about ten horse names, look for Russdiculous. For whatever reason trying to link the PPs themselves just lead to an invalid parameter when you try to click it.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/MALIBU+MOON/1997/summary.html

[cnollfan]

I like :11: and :12:. Suspect bottom-level Oklahoma breds are better than bottom level Turf Paradise horses. The outside horse has been running over his head since winning N3L and is taking a logical drop. The rest of the field is mainly old horses with more past than future.

[appistappis]

you don't want to single the diodoro?????

[bello]

I'll take a look prior to reading your comments. I don't want to be biased. I am usually a big turf fan, but there is clearly some scumbaggery going on there this meet and I am looking elsewhere of late, like Mahoning...I am a fan of the minor leagues

[mountainman]

Not familiar with tup, but N4L and NW/12 mo are not equivalent conditions. I just cringe when a mnr trainer enters the 4-life with a horse eligible for a much easier NW/12 mo spot.

Mahoning occasionally writes a condition mixing N2L eligibles with veterans winless in a 12-mo period. And in contrast with your spotlight race, non-lifers have the worst of it in under the Mahoning header. This nuance seemed beyond the Mahoning players last year, and I profited considerably by focusing on multiple winners.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Not familiar with tup, but N4L and NW/12 mo are not equivalent conditions. ...

Yeah the combo four condition has taken a few different forms but pretty sure these days it is like everything else and strictly a six month time period. Some habits die hard and always shorthanded that combo non-four as n1y since during the summer months a nw1y was the same 6mo. condition more or less and how we wrote it. I almost edited my title when I realized I probably should have gone with nw6m but laziness prevented me. :D

[bello]

This is not an unusual condition for Turf paradise.

track has been very pro rail and that makes things a bit difficult.
Three horse race
#11 see cnolllfan comments...I agree
#4 and #5 are the others. I see no form in the rest

[bello]

Pick a race from the minor leagues and it gets my attention.

[HuggingTheRail]

I can't really provide a reasonable / logical rationale, but if the tote board matched the ML, I would have to include the 1 on the ticket

[MNslappy]

Hard to get past the :3: here but I do like the :12: and the :4: a little bit

[Winger]

Looks like a single on the :3: .

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Hard to get past the :3: with those connections, maybe the :4:

:10: worth a look.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I like the change back to dirt and class drop on the :12: The gelding also has early speed which should suit him well from that outside post. The :12: and the :4: are the only ones capable of beating the :3: IMO. The :4: is hard to trust for the top spot given his 1 for 18 2016 with 9 places, but at the 6.5F of the race he's 1 for 4 with 2 other placings.

Although very cheap and light in the speed figure dept I like the :1: for minor board spots in the tri and super. First race off the lay since July the horse showed some late interest to be 2nd at the much shorter 5F. Granted it was a distant 2nd, the horse had to weave in and out a bit in the stretch to outfinish several others for that 2nd spot. He retains the same jock and gets another 1.5F to work with here. Any improvement off of his last race he gets a minor share at what should be a big price.

The :11: is respectable from a class perspective and warrants a look for that reason alone. I'm tossing him however, due to his very spotty work schedule (3 works all of 2016, last one in sept) and while he possesses some speed, it won't be enough to clear the field or avoid being caught wide for an extended period of time. He's the proverbial "All" or "Nothing" type horse

[johnhannibalsmith]

Just want to chime in with a thanks to those that have responded so far. I enjoy seeing how a race like this breaks down for people, especially when I have some sense of the methods employed by a lot of the respondents, and appreciate any opinions. Thanks!

[Robert Fischer]

chalky outlook after glancing at the PPs

:3: looks like a single or a heavy lean.



:4: is an obvious logical contender




:12: has some suspect form, but he's dropping for a trainer who has had a good meet so far
:10: is a fairly obvious underneath type
:8: looks like competent connections as an underneath type.

:1: has some models pointing toward a longshot-bottom of exotics, but may be a dud



:6: is a reach as an include, who hopes to establish forward position on the stretch-out (how does the jockey have a -1.28(negative)ROI over 124 mounts!? :blush: )

[Inner Dirt]

I have never used anything other than a Racing Form, I am thinking the bold numbers are similar to a Beyer? Tough to take 3-5 or less on a 3K claimer but the :3: looks like it should win easily with maybe the :4: completing the exacta.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Thanks everyone... rained a bunch and looks like we probably won't run today and one of my main interests in the race is already planning on scratching tomorrow so expecting if it runs at all it won't be of much interest any longer. Oh well.

[ultracapper]

So........What happened?

Guessing Diodoro took the money and ran.

[johnhannibalsmith]

So........What happened?

Guessing Diodoro took the money and ran.

The race/card was canceled. It runs in almost its same form (1 defection/addition) as race seven on the Sunday card.

[cnollfan]

Was the horse The Third One entered in last week's cancelled affair? He is the only one in the field to have a workout in January, which I am taking as a plus.

Mydancingshadow also looks interesting turning back after dueling for the lead in a hot paced route.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Was the horse The Third One entered in last week's cancelled affair? He is the only one in the field to have a workout in January, which I am taking as a plus.

Mydancingshadow also looks interesting turning back after dueling for the lead in a hot paced route.

Yes, The Third One was part of the original field. I think he's dangerous, though I'd rather wait for Odom's to run a couple of times off the long layoff before getting too excited but this is probably the last chance to get a good price if he moves up off his last in which he only got beat a few lengths by the likely second choice here.

Mydancingshadow, on the other hand, was not in the original field. I don't really like the horse here but use it how you will if you think that there's something to be gained from knowing that this race was brought back in nearly its exact form of original twelve and she jumped right in the box knowing what had been in there originally. Of course, the thinking may have been that if a half-dozen or so new ones get in there then they might just split the race into a couple of nines or something and you have a decent chance of catching a soft half.

[johnhannibalsmith]

For the record I guess since I've got to jump in the car and head down the hill - and this isn't an endorsement or tout and probably no surprise to those that frequent NCG's thread since his name has come up the last couple of times he's run - but my interest here lies with the old man My T Quick. Again, I'm invested and objectivity-challenged but I'm wanting to play him and it's small pool Sunday (particularly when it will come to multi-race bets that begin earlier in the card before east coast tracks conclude) and I thought he'd be way under the radar in here but figured I could get a little better sense of how to approach it based on some other opinions of the field as a whole. Thanks, and more than likely, an early congrats for being a lot closer to hitting the race than I am/was. :D