HONG KONG/Happy Valley-THURS 12/22

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM THURS. EST

I believe TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #2 - #8
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right.

R#1 - 1650M (8¼F) T….......4-2 W/ 5-9-8-1 .........6:15 AM EST


R#2 - 1650M (8¼F) T......... 5-7 W/ 1-6-2-4 …....6:45 AM EST


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T............2-4 W/ 10-7-5-6.........7:15 AM EST


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T............4-1 W/ 2-3-5-8…….....7:45 AM EST


R#5 - 1650M (8¼F) T….......3-1 W/ 4-9-10-11 ........8:15 AM EST


R#6 - 2200M (10F) T……...... 1-3 W/ 10-8-5-4 …...8:45 AM EST


R#7 - 1200M (6F) T............3-2 W/ 4-6-8-11.........9:15 AM EST


R#8 -1200M (6F) T……........ 4-8 W/ 2-3-5-10 ..….9:50 AM EST

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Results:

R#1 – 4-11-5-3 ……(Top choice $17.20 Early & Live)
Dutch – 73% = $55.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 7.6 12.0 BET PRF
$5 $17 $26
$50 $15 $10 $75 $55 73%
$130 $129 $130

R#2 – 1-9-3-2 …….(3rd choice $8.50 Early & 2nd choice Live)
Dutch – 62% = $46.00 - $101.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.2 6.4 BET PRF
$8 $8 $15
$30 $28 $16 $74 $46 62%
$120 $118 $118 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

Results:

R#3 – 5-4-10-7.. (5th choice $39.50 Early $40 Quin/$703 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 25% (PASS)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.2 3.0 9.0 BET PRF
$4 $8 $20
$37 $20 $8 $65 $16 25%
$81 $80 $80 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

R#4 – 8-2-1-4 .. (6th choice $19.80 Early - $418 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 37% (PASS)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 6.2 7.8 BET PRF
$4 $14 $18
$34 $10 $8 $52 $19 37%
$71 $72 $70 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[FakeNameChanged]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #2 - #8
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right.

R#1 - 1650M (8¼F) T….......4-2 W/ 5-9-8-1 .........6:15 AM EST


R#2 - 1650M (8¼F) T......... 5-7 W/ 1-6-2-4 …....6:45 AM EST


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T............2-4 W/ 10-7-5-6.........7:15 AM EST


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T............4-1 W/ 2-3-5-8…….....7:45 AM EST


R#5 - 1650M (8¼F) T….......3-1 W/ 4-9-10-11 ........8:15 AM EST


R#6 - 2200M (10F) T……...... 1-3 W/ 10-8-5-4 …...8:45 AM EST


R#7 - 1200M (6F) T............3-2 W/ 4-6-8-11.........9:15 AM EST


R#8 -1200M (6F) T……........ 4-8 W/ 2-3-5-10 ..….9:50 AM EST

Good Luck today if you’re playing!
Good morning Nitro, Do all 8 races have substantial money showing in their pools before even the 1st race? I did look at the 1st race in HK, a few weeks back and saw there was several million in the betting pool early. Didn't look at remaining races to see if the pools were also large a few hours before they were run.

[Nitro]

Results:

R#5 – 1-9-10-3.. (2nd choice Early $89 Quin/$656 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 63% = $70.00 - $171.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.3 5.6 38.0 BET PRF
$5 $13 $78
$78 $27 $5 $110 $70 63%
$179 $179 $179 3 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live

R#6 – 7-1-10-4.. (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 46% (PASS)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132 3 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

Results:

R#7 – 5-7-9-10…...(Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 78% = ($64.00) - $107.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 20.0 26.0 BET PRF
$4 $42 $54
$54 $5 $4 $64 $50 78%
$113 $113 $113 3 for 4 Early & 3 for 4 Live

R#8 – 2-12-8-9 …...(3rd choice $10.40 Early & Top choice Live)
Dutch – 116% = $82.00 - $189.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154 4 for 5 Early & 4 for 5 Live

The Dutching was done using the Top 3 preliminary picks in 5 of the 8 races on the card (3 were Passed because the Profit margin was below 50%). No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 4 out of 5 races (80%) produced a profit of $189 after betting $394 or a 48% O.A. Profit Margin.
Also hit 2 Quinellas and 3 Triples with the early picks.

Merry Christmas! :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

Good morning Nitro, Do all 8 races have substantial money showing in their pools before even the 1st race? I did look at the 1st race in HK, a few weeks back and saw there was several million in the betting pool early. Didn't look at remaining races to see if the pools were also large a few hours before they were run.
Hey there WhosonFirst!
No, there is minimal money in all but the 1st race at 1 PM HK time. The static tote analysis uses the early 2 Morning lines provided by the HKJC in combination with the current line at that point in time. However, I always feel much more comfortable using the Live analysis. I only post the Early picks to share some information with those who might have an interest in tapping into the HK pools.