Time to place wagers

[VigorsTheGrey]

During the course of an afternoon of wagering, I often feel rushed into structuring and placing my wagers...I like to look at the post parade for clues but this doesn't seem to leave enough time to decide on my bets...how does time impact your wagering and how can I improve in this area...?

[Appy]

Anyone using live tote, early money, paddock pick style info, etc, in addition to their pre-race handicapping choices will be affected by the problem you are pointing out.
The "solution" I think of offhand is to adopt a playing style allowing play on more than 1 horse to W.
IMO the above has a tendency to improve strike rate while lowering ROI.
A related problem is misjudging the time for getting bets placed before cutoff. I often lose out on a winning play because of being a second or two too late getting the submit button clicked.

[DeltaLover]

Anyone using live tote, early money, paddock pick style info, etc,

Sorry but there is very little you can accomplish when using this data which is been using mainly from recreational bettors.. If you want to elevate your game and increase your probabilities as a bettor you need to delve deep into the game and spend a lot of research and thinking time (all these on top of a lot of loosing tickets as well!)

[Tom]

Back on topic....

Handicap the last race first, then the next to last, then......until you meet up with real time. Whatever you miss you were not prepared for anyways.
And you aren't looking to bail out on the last race if you handicapped it when you were even on the day.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Make your wagers about 10 minutes to post. Then add or cancel if anything hits you. It's far easier to do this than to punch tickets as they are loading into the gate.

[Nitro]

Anyone using live tote, early money, paddock pick style info, etc, in addition to their pre-race handicapping choices will be affected by the problem you are pointing out.
The "solution" I think of offhand is to adopt a playing style allowing play on more than 1 horse to W.
IMO the above has a tendency to improve strike rate while lowering ROI.
A related problem is misjudging the time for getting bets placed before cutoff. I often lose out on a winning play because of being a second or two too late getting the submit button clicked.
Sorry but there is very little you can accomplish when using this data which is been using mainly from recreational bettors.. If you want to elevate your game and increase your probabilities as a bettor you need to delve deep into the game and spend a lot of research and thinking time (all these on top of a lot of loosing tickets as well!)
Delta's reply is TOTAL B.S. Let him also explain as an Outsider how he knows the intentions of any given stable at any given time!

Appy, I would agree that using the approaches you mention do not offer any luxury for time. Keeping track of "Mins to Post" is critical.

[Appy]

"Appy, I would agree that using the approaches you mention do not offer any luxury for time. Keeping track of "Mins to Post" is critical."

Live tote doesn't really affect my opinion of a horse, but my opinion of a horse includes risk factor relative to his odds, determining whether or not I feel he is playable. Because so many people wait until the last 30 seconds to place their bets the odds can shift dramatically very late in the process. I don't know of any real solution for that problem, but it certainly is a problem I think relates to intent of the OP.
What is your practice Nitro?

[dlivery]

Bet them and forget'm :lol:

[DeltaLover]

Delta's reply is TOTAL B.S. Let him also explain as an Outsider how he knows the intentions of any given stable at any given time!

Appy, I would agree that using the approaches you mention do not offer any luxury for time. Keeping track of "Mins to Post" is critical.

Of course I do not know the intentions of any stable at any time and my experience proves that I do not need this piece of information. I could have improve my bottom line of if I had this info but it is impossible for me to discover it and I also do very good with out it.

In my opinion if you believe in Tote-board action and paddock inspections as valid sources of handicapping information then your understanding of the game is still shallow and you have a steep learning curve to go through.

Sorry, but judging from the tone of your response you are clueless about what handicapping is all about and I doubt if you will ever understand.

[Nitro]

"Appy, I would agree that using the approaches you mention do not offer any luxury for time. Keeping track of "Mins to Post" is critical."

Live tote doesn't really affect my opinion of a horse, but my opinion of a horse includes risk factor relative to his odds, determining whether or not I feel he is playable. Because so many people wait until the last 30 seconds to place their bets the odds can shift dramatically very late in the process. I don't know of any real solution for that problem, but it certainly is a problem I think relates to intent of the OP.
What is your practice Nitro?
As some here might recognize I no longer follow the breed. I only follow the money in the pools using a tote analysis that generally allows me to place my bets between 3 to 5 minutes to post. If I have to deliberate any longer it usually means that there’s some obvious uncertainty.

I don’t have a “practice” like a doctor or a lawyer does. In fact, I was able to stop practicing about 4 months after learning how use this analysis to my financial gratification.

The one thing I’ve learned along the way is that if the final outcome of the analysis for any given race looks too complex or conflicting, I simply pass the race just as I would if the value of the selected entries was not worth a bet. I treat my betting activities just like a business, realizing that any decision I make will impact my bottom line: Profit.

[AltonKelsey]

... after learning how use this analysis to my financial gratification. ...


I thought this was a g-rated board.

[AltonKelsey]

...

In my opinion if you believe in Tote-board action and paddock inspections as valid sources of handicapping information then your understanding of the game is still shallow and you have a steep learning curve to go through.

....

So you're saying the actual appearance of the horse on race day is trumped by a figure generated weeks ago? Depends on who is doing the inspecting, but I'd say no.

Your implication is that any tote analysis (dead , alive, something in between) or physicality read is 'invalid' . Invalid means having no value, ie worthless.

Is that really what you want to say?

[rsetup]

Is that really what you want to say?

'He/She looks fabulous'.

[Nitro]

Of course I do not know the intentions of any stable at any time and my experience proves that I do not need this piece of information. I could have improve my bottom line of if I had this info but it is impossible for me to discover it and I also do very good with out it.

In my opinion if you believe in Tote-board action and paddock inspections as valid sources of handicapping information then your understanding of the game is still shallow and you have a steep learning curve to go through.

Sorry, but judging from the tone of your response you are clueless about what handicapping is all about and I doubt if you will ever understand.
No, actually the tone of my response could have been better portrayed as someone who recognizes the impact of those very objective things I believe in, versus the obvious shortcomings of all that subjective information that those handicapping claim to be of so much value. My understanding of the game is to show a profit. As shallow as that might seem, it’s the reason I started playing to begin with. Only now I don’t waste time and energy trying to reach my personal goals.

I could offer a few more quotes from Pittsburg Phil’s axioms to further substantiate my claims, but I know guys like you are far beyond his astuteness and betting prowess, and probably regard his abilities and attributes as out dated and inconsequential. That’s you’re quandary not mine.

Please don’t offer any pretentious statements that attempt to describe handicapping as some sort of mystery only to be solved by those using some sort of scientific approach: methodologies that treat animals as machines that seemingly perform with a will of their own without any regard for physical condition or racing environment.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Is any of this relevant to the opening poster's leadoff?

[cnollfan]

Back on topic....

Handicap the last race first, then the next to last, then......until you meet up with real time. Whatever you miss you were not prepared for anyways.
And you aren't looking to bail out on the last race if you handicapped it when you were even on the day.

I like this approach.

[EMD4ME]

During the course of an afternoon of wagering, I often feel rushed into structuring and placing my wagers...I like to look at the post parade for clues but this doesn't seem to leave enough time to decide on my bets...how does time impact your wagering and how can I improve in this area...?

Tom's advice was excellent. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Make sure all your work is done BEFORE you leave for the track but if you can't, work backwards forwards. You will be calmer, more prepared and know which races to bet $2 on VS. which races to bet more on.

[Nitro]

Is any of this relevant to the opening poster's leadoff?
You're right! I initially tried to demonstrate the timing of placing bets I face when using the results of the tote analysis in response to Appy's post. Then of course as soon as my method is mentioned the skeptics attempt to downplay its validity. That's par for the course! What else is new?

I will only add that no matter which approach is used that the tote board can be your friend, if for nothing else than to determine the value of your play. Those who ignore it are missing out, even if it means placing your bets during the closing minutes before post time.

[cnollfan]

Because so many people wait until the last 30 seconds to place their bets the odds can shift dramatically very late in the process. I don't know of any real solution for that problem.


Rather than using the tote board I use the will-pays to order the top three or four favorites if there are any doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s etc. ending on the race in question. The will-pays have the advantage of being a closed pool. If I like a horse that is 8-1 and it's the second favorite in the will-pays, I know that 8-1 is a mirage.

It's not infallible, but it's better than using the real-time odds IMHO.

[Nitro]

Rather than using the tote board I use the will-pays to order the top three or four favorites if there are any doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s etc. ending on the race in question. The will-pays have the advantage of being a closed pool. If I like a horse that is 8-1 and it's the second favorite in the will-pays, I know that 8-1 is a mirage.

It's not infallible, but it's better than using the real-time odds IMHO.
Whether you realize it or not you are using the tote board. The tote is not an exclusive display of just the odds (the Win pool only). There are many pools besides the Mutuals. The available Will-pays be they Exacta, Quinnela or the Pick-whatever are all part of the betting activities in each race. Your acknowledgement of obvious disparities between pools is an excellent way to uncover the type of positive bias you mentioned. These type of observations can be made at various times prior to post and may not require waiting for the last minute to bet.

[plainolebill]

I handicap between races and don't often do much more than glance at the PPs ahead of time. I run out of time for some races but there's always another one coming up.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You're right! I initially tried to demonstrate the timing of placing bets I face when using the results of the tote analysis in response to Appy's post. Then of course as soon as my method is mentioned the skeptics attempt to downplay its validity. That's par for the course! What else is new?

I will only add that no matter which approach is used that the tote board can be your friend, if for nothing else than to determine the value of your play. Those who ignore it are missing out, even if it means placing your bets during the closing minutes before post time.

LOL! It got off to a bad start right away this thread! Delta said one thing and you took it as a sleight and your first sentence had BS in it!

OP was just asking how we are time efficient in regards to making bets. Pretty straight forward question. I know you get a lot of flack for your methodology but you know I believe in what you do. And have been influenced also with the way I now look at odds and payoffs. The one guy's post on will pays is something I use. It's brilliantly revealing. The other is warped exacta payoffs. I see on occasion where a favorite and 6-1 shot have slightly lopsided payoffs in the WRONG odds direction. Not sure if it an exacta as place bet but you will see a $26 the 6-1/fav and $35 fav/6-1. If I already bet the 6-1 I will likely add more. We can all cross contaminate in a good way IMO. We are players. The real creeps linger in off topic! :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rather than using the tote board I use the will-pays to order the top three or four favorites if there are any doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s etc. ending on the race in question. The will-pays have the advantage of being a closed pool. If I like a horse that is 8-1 and it's the second favorite in the will-pays, I know that 8-1 is a mirage.

It's not infallible, but it's better than using the real-time odds IMHO.

Absolutely. It's practically a value line in itself.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Back on topic....

Handicap the last race first, then the next to last, then......until you meet up with real time. Whatever you miss you were not prepared for anyways.
And you aren't looking to bail out on the last race if you handicapped it when you were even on the day.

Thanks Tom, I like this approach...I have actually tried to do this many times and it works for awhile...then about an hour into handicapping backwards the temptations of the current races start pulling my attention away from working backwards and I succumb to my folly of scanning live races looking for overlays, sharp looking paraders, and value in exotics will pays...I usually end by betting too many different combinations, chasing what I think is value....so I think my issue is DISCIPLINE... There is definitely a certain compulsion to my wagering pattern that I need to reign in...I know that each race is different and represent a distinct wagering opportunity...THAT needs to be evaluated, discovered, and acted upon within the allotted time constraints....

The case in point was California Chrome's most recent race at Los Alamitos Race Course...turns out the value lay ONLY in the superhigh5 bet which paid I think $175 for $1 bet with second choice Point Piper running 2nd....but I think I'm trying to do too much, too quickly...

[FakeNameChanged]

Thanks Tom, I like this approach...I have actually tried to do this many times and it works for awhile...then about an hour into handicapping backwards the temptations of the current races start pulling my attention away from working backwards and I succumb to my folly of scanning live races looking for overlays, sharp looking paraders, and value in exotics will pays...I usually end by betting too many different combinations, chasing what I think is value....so I think my issue is DISCIPLINE... There is definitely a certain compulsion to my wagering pattern that I need to reign in...I know that each race is different and represent a distinct wagering opportunity...THAT needs to be evaluated, discovered, and acted upon within the allotted time constraints....

The case in point was California Chrome's most recent race at Los Alamitos Race Course...turns out the value lay ONLY in the superhigh5 bet which paid I think $175 for $1 bet with second choice Point Piper running 2nd....but I think I'm trying to do too much, too quickly...
VTG, If you're constantly being pulled back to handicapping the earlier races, you have to give serious consideration to doing "some" handicapping the day or night before. Then decide what your core betting strategy will be, whether it's W&P, exactas, or some other exotics variations. Have those bets thought out, written down prior to making your visual inspections of horse and tote odds. You can use that last bit of data to eliminate, or modify your preliminary bet plan. Too many add-ons, or last minute modifications means you're more influenced by others' handicapping than your own. Nitro can do this because he has a plan, a tote odds software model and he's done it a thousand times. I'm sure he misses one occasionally. If you're being pulled in too many directions from your original handicapping, then it probably should be a PASS. It's amazing how quickly the 20-25 minutes between races flies.

[dlivery]

All horses in the race
The last Line
Then look for a excuse

Just Asking :lol: :lol:

[dlivery]

:bang: We Have Heard this before Z I G I E
Has Gone Wrong

[dlivery]

Where are we putting contenders makes a lot of sense I am looking at the Grass roots levels of things :1:

[pondman]

You could always bet with a Cell Phone through an ADW.

Personally I scan the sheets as soon as the entries are released, just to see our potential bank needs. I run the screens in the early am, which knocks out about half of those entries, and then often our bets are made by 3:00 am. I never watch the races, and do the record keeping in the early evening.

[Prof.Factor]

During the course of an afternoon of wagering, I often feel rushed into structuring and placing my wagers...I like to look at the post parade for clues but this doesn't seem to leave enough time to decide on my bets...how does time impact your wagering and how can I improve in this area...?


I think the most likely bets and requirements should already be sketched out before post parade.
Use late info to tweak or solidify your opinions.
Then you're basically crossing bets off your list and playing the ones you like.
You'll get a headache trying to figure out bets with every click of the toteboard.
This is kind of how I play. This requires the raced to be handicapped beforehand so you can concentrate on the betting game.
If I ever feel like I'm rushing, then I haven't capped the race thoroughly and don't know what is going on.
That is an automatic pass scenario or you'll be steaming after the race more times than not.
Also, don't waste valueable time handicapping races you know you will not be betting for the sake of completeness.