HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SAT 12/17

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 10 races with 8 on Turf and 2 on Awt.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT. EST

TVG is offering live video for all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm all in Nitro!

I've done some work, putting in good effort. Still probably not good enough.

Fascinating racing though. Great product.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Been chugging along since race 8 at GP this afternoon, 2 wins( 4-1, 6-1), 2 places, and 4 exactas. I'm done brother. Good luck tonight! :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

BTW I remember seeing PP's for Asia at some point in time. Anybody know where? I'm up most nights during the winter. Anyway I'll check back in and see how it's going later.

[Nitro]

I'm all in Nitro!

I've done some work, putting in good effort. Still probably not good enough.

Fascinating racing though. Great product.
Okay that sounds great!

Let's make some money!

GL this morning!

[Nitro]

BTW I remember seeing PP's for Asia at some point in time. Anybody know where? I'm up most nights during the winter. Anyway I'll check back in and see how it's going later.
You can get free PPs on the DRF site or you can use the Form Guide/Speed Map on the HKJC site: http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #7 - #8 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when the odds are right.

R#1 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt....….3-2 w/8-1-4-9 ......12:00 AM EST

R#2 - 1000M (5F) Turf..........1-2 w/8-3-11-12 ….12:30 AM EST

R#3 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt.......1-2 w/4-3-5...........1:00 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf…........1-2 w/6-5-7-4….....1:35 AM EST

R#5 - 1600M (8F) Turf ….......3-2 w/7-1-6-13…...2:05 AM EST

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........4-1 w/2-9-10-7 ….…2:40 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf….......2-5 w/6-3-1-8..........3:10 AM EST

R#8 - 1000M (5F) Turf..........1-3 w/12-4-2-5 …....3:40 AM EST

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........1-7 w/11-4-3-5….....4:15 AM EST

R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf........2-5 w/14-1-8-7.........4:50 AM EST

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
(I like to use the decimal odds from the HKJC site - just knock off (1) pt. for US $ equivalent and adjusted Profit margin % -
NO PLAY IF 50% OR LESS!!) EX: 7.7/1 HK = 6.7/1 US
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $$ amount no matter which one wins.

[ReplayRandall]

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........4-1 w/2-9-10-7 ….…2:40 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf….......2-5 w/6-3-1-8..........3:10 AM EST

R#8 - 1000M (5F) Turf..........1-3 w/12-4-2-5 …....3:40 AM EST

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........1-7 w/11-4-3-5….....4:15 AM EST

R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf........2-5 w/14-1-8-7.........4:50 AM EST



I agree with the horses highlighted in red.....Good Luck.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt….3-2 w/8-1-4-9 ......12:00 AM EST

LIVE Note: The only entry that’s getting unusual Early play is #12
So far there’s only light Early action on #9

There might be substitution! Watch that board!

[Nitro]

I agree with the horses highlighted in red.....Good Luck.
Thanks Randall!
But BEWARE those are "Static" Tote early picks. :eek:
I say that only because I noticed your somewhat skeptical comment about that on that other thread.
Keep the faith my friend!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R1

:4: Laughing Lord
__________________________________________________ _
Well he sucked. :mad:

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt….3-2 w/8-1-4-9 ......12:00 AM EST

LIVE Note: The only entry that’s getting unusual Early play is #12
So far there’s only light Early action on #9

There might be substitution! Watch that board!
Live Tote Results: R#1 – 10-2-1-13......Out Early & Live –
Note: Winner went from 28/1 to 17/1 in the last minute flash ! :eek:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I have 3/7 odds that Jenny says every horse is fit and "quite caaaaaalm".

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......1-2 w/8-3-11-12 ….12:30 AM EST

LIVE Note: Tote looks pretty stable so far @ 14 mins to post, so any changes should become very obvious.

[Nitro]

I have 3/7 odds that Jenny says every horse is fit and "quite caaaaaalm".
I agree 100%, but BEWARE if she notices anything that's negative!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I agree 100%, but BEWARE if she notices anything that's negative!

:lol:

Kind of like the :10:, thoughts?

[rsetup]

R2

:11:, Peace Combination

:1:, Ace King

[Nitro]

:lol:

Kind of like the :10:, thoughts?
Dead on Board! And Jenny says its "Towie" whatever that means???

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Dead on Board! And Jenny says its "Towie" whatever that means???

Pretty sure she said "losie". :bang:

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......1-2 w/8-3-11-12 ….12:30 AM EST

LIVE Note: Tote looks pretty stable so far @ 14 mins to post, so any changes should become very obvious.

Live Tote Results: R#2 – 8-11-9-2......3rd choice Early & 2nd choice Live - $130.59 Quin & Dutch Pass w/only 21% Profit Margin

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Live Tote Results: R#2 – 8-11-9-2......3rd choice Early & 2nd choice Live - $130.59 Quin & Dutch Pass w/only 21% Profit Margin

Sorry, but how did you make 21% profit on that race? Quin and Dutch all you want, but your top 2 DIDN't hit, and unless you are boxing 5 (which is an obnoxious amount) there is no way you "hit" that race.

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt......1-2 w/4-3-5...........1:00 AM EST
LIVE Note: Entries getting unusual Early play is #7

[Nitro]

Sorry, but how did you make 21% profit on that race? Quin and Dutch all you want, but your top 2 DIDN't hit, and unless you are boxing 5 (which is an obnoxious amount) there is no way you "hit" that race.
No you misunderstood - If the Profit margin turns out to be less than 50% its a PASS. No Play!
The winner wound up as my 2nd Live choice, but you could boxed all 6 and still made a nice profit!
2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

No you misunderstood - If the Profit margin turns out to be less than 50% its a PASS. No Play!
The winner wound up as my 2nd Live choice, but you could boxed all 6 and still made a nice profit!

Obviously I'm not as smart as you.

Mathematically, in $'s, put that down in numbers as to how you made a profit in that race with your selections.

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1650M (8¼ F) Awt......1-2 w/4-3-5...........1:00 AM EST
LIVE Note: Entries getting unusual Early play is #7
Live Tote Results: R#3 – 4-2-7-5......3rd choice Early & 2nd choice Live - $19.00 Quin & Dutch Pass w/only 22% Profit Margin
Winner got solid betting throughout and wound up favored.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Barrier.

I do love the barrier talk.

[Nitro]

Obviously I'm not as smart as you.

Mathematically, in $'s, put that down in numbers as to how you made a profit in that race with your selections.
Quin Boxing ALL 6 = 15 bets @ $2/EX = $30 / Profit = $100.50

[Nitro]

Barrier.

I do love the barrier talk.

That makes 2 of us! Actually I like listening to all their jargon. I'm still trying to figure out what some of it means.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf….....1-2 w/6-5-7-4….....1:35 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #4 are not getting a lot of Early play so far, but #7 & #5 are.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Quin Boxing ALL 6 = 15 bets @ $2/EX = $30 / Profit = $100.50

Light bulb.

Thank you.

Took a while for my thick skull. And yes, it goes well beyond the little ol' Quin.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3::4:

Thoughts?

[Nitro]

:3::4:

Thoughts?Site went down again!!!!!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf….....1-2 w/6-5-7-4….....1:35 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #4 are not getting a lot of Early play so far, but #7 & #5 are.
Live Tote Results: R#4 – 7-4-10-1......5th choice Early & Top choice Live - $76.70 Quin Bx & Dutch Pass w/only 49% Profit Margin

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1600M (8F) Turf ….....3-2 w/7-1-6-13…...2:05 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1 & #7 getting good Early play & getting unusual Early play is #8 - Watch

[lamboguy]

i just looked at the show pool at Sha Tin for the 4th race. they had $24 million in it. that one pool for 1 race probably had more money in it than the Aqueduct handle for the whole week!

that's pure insanity

[Nitro]

i just looked at the show pool at Sha Tin for the 4th race. they had $24 million in it. that one pool for 1 race probably had more money in it than the Aqueduct handle for the whole week!

that's pure insanityThat's why I enjoy HK so much! The action is just incredible and the racing is great too!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1600M (8F) Turf ….....3-2 w/7-1-6-13…...2:05 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1 & #7 getting good Early play & getting unusual Early play is #8 - Watch
Live Tote Results: R#5 – 14-3-7-2......Out Early & Live –
No obvious action on that LS winner!

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......4-1 w/2-9-10-7 ….…2:40 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #9 getting good Early play & #10 isn’t. Some unusual Early play on #3 - Watch

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......4-1 w/2-9-10-7 ….…2:40 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #9 getting good Early play & #10 isn’t. Some unusual Early play on #3 - Watch
Live Tote Results: R#6 – 4-11-9-10......Top choice $8.30 Early & 2nd choice Live - Dutch Win w/ 93% Profit Margin

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.1 5.6 6.9 BET PRF
$8 $13 $16
$32 $20 $16 $68 $63 93%
$131 $132 $126

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf….....2-5 w/6-3-1-8..........3:10 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #9 getting good Early play

[Lemon Drop Husker]

My eye says :6:

My eye has sucked

13/1 over 25/1.

Crapdammit!

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf….....2-5 w/6-3-1-8..........3:10 AM EST
LIVE Note: #2 & #9 getting good Early play
Live Tote Results: R#7 – 1-12-2-8......5th choice Early & Live - Dutch Out w/155% Profit Margin

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What sucks for me Nitro, is that I rely a lot upon the horse on the track. 'Capping the form gets me half way there, but I have to see the animal.

The Post Parade in HK?

Everybody looks good. :mad:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1000M (5F) Turf........1-3 w/12-4-2-5 …....3:40 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #2 & #3 getting good Early play & No action on #5
Some unusually Early heavy play on #9 - Watch

[Nitro]

What sucks for me Nitro, is that I rely a lot upon the horse on the track. 'Capping the form gets me half way there, but I have to see the animal.

The Post Parade in HK?

Everybody looks good. :mad:

I hear you. That's why I rely so much on the board.

BTW what does "he looks Cheeky" mean?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I hear you. That's why I rely so much on the board.

BTW what does "he looks Cheeky" mean?

IN short, I believe it means sophomoric in our terms. Not ready for prime time, but able.

:9::12: caught my eye. My eye has stunk more than a roadway skunk.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:12: is ready.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

WTF was that?

Get that :1: out of here. :mad:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1000M (5F) Turf........1-3 w/12-4-2-5 …....3:40 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #2 & #3 getting good Early play & No action on #5
Some unusually Early heavy play on #9 - Watch
Live Tote Results: R#8 – 1-2-12-9......Top choice $5.00 Early & Live - $53.20 Quin & $466.60 Tri - Dutch Passed w/ only 11% Profit Margin

[lamboguy]

Nitro had to be all over that trifecta in race 8, doesn't pay that well though. :( something like $ 140 for $2

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If you wear a suit with tennis shoes and a scarf, I will....., not call you my friend.

[Nitro]

Nitro had to be all over that trifecta in race 8, doesn't pay that well though. 140 for something like $ 140 for $2
No actually I've been focusing on the Quinellas this morning. I also get a little nervous about a Triple value when there's 2 heavy favorites. I lucked out with value of that Quin!

[lamboguy]

No actually I've been focusing on the Quinellas this morning. I also get a little nervous about a Triple value when there's 2 heavy favorites. I lucked out with value of that Quin!wait a second i didn't figure it right, the sucker paid $600 for $2. now that was a great payoff for that horse. i loved BAD BOY in a big way and stayed up for him today. i played your numbers underneath him and cashed good thank you

[Lemon Drop Husker]

2nd, 3rd, and 4th don't pay anywhere you wager. :bang:

I'll get this.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf........1-7 w/11-4-3-5….....4:15 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #4 & #7 getting good Early play &
Some unusual Early play on #14 - Watch

[Nitro]

wait a second i didn't figure it right, the sucker paid $600 for $2. now that was a great payoff for that horse. i loved BAD BOY in a big way and stayed up for him today. i played your numbers underneath him and cashed good thank youYou're right! I originally posted the return on the Trio not the Tierce - $466.60 - Big difference!
Nice Hit!

[lamboguy]

You're right! I originally posted the return on the Trio not the Tierce - $466.60 - Big difference!
Nice Hit!forget the trifecta, that horse paid amazing to win $5. i honestly thought he would be about a $3 horse at best even with the other semi monster in the race.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:5:'

Who do I bet with him Nitro!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Had to throw a :9:er in there, didn' they. '

Its like walkie talkie stuff.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf........1-7 w/11-4-3-5….....4:15 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #4 & #7 getting good Early play &
Some unusual Early play on #14 - Watch
Live Tote Results: R#9 – 1-9-11-4/7 DH 4th......Top choice $10.90 Early & Live - Dutch Passed w/ only 41% Profit Margin
Where did that #9 come from? The Spoiler! :mad:

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf......2-5 w/14-1-8-7.........4:50 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #5 & #14 getting good Early action & not much on the #2 & #7
Some unusual Early play on #9 & #10 - Watch

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:7: Sky King
:6: Starship

[no breathalyzer]

:9: Ruby Coast

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:7: Sky King
:6: Starship

I'm going to marry the :7:

[lamboguy]

merry christmas to all the Hong Kong players here

[lamboguy]

absolutely a major touchdown for Nitro, my proclaimed king of Sha Tin. couldn't happen to a better man

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf......2-5 w/14-1-8-7.........4:50 AM EST
LIVE Note: #1, #5 & #14 getting good Early action & not much on the #2 & #7
Some unusual Early play on #9 & #10 - Watch
Live Tote Results: R#10 – 2-7-14-10 ......Top choice $55.50 Early & 2nd choice Live $281.80 Quin & $3,520.60 Tri Bx - Dutch Win w/ 59% Profit Margin – ALL OF THAT ONE !

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.1 7.5 26.0 BET PRF
$4 $17 $54
$54 $13 $4 $72 $42 59%
$113 $113 $113 Another fun & profitable day @ Sha Tin!
Merry Christmas!

[Nitro]

absolutely a major touchdown for Nitro, my proclaimed king of Sha Tin. couldn't happen to a better man
Thanks Lamboguy!
Sometimes its just in the cards I guess.
A Merry Christmas to you and your family! :ThmbUp:

[formula_2002]

nice going nitro.. one heck of a winning performance
here are your roi's in race order, based on final $1 odds (what some here call USA odds)

0.86
3/17
0.75
-1
0.30
0.76
2.74
0.85
1.20
0.80

for a sum of 10.43
did I get the right?

[Nitro]

Thanks, but you know Formula if you’re going to try and critique something,
WHY not first of all do it do it accurately in its entirety, and
WHY not do it in Dollars & Sense; so that it’s easier to understand.
Do you really think that the column of numbers you posted means anything to anyone?

The Table below is an Accurate representation of the monetary Returns
for ALL 10 races using the following simple formats:
1) The flat $2.00 Win bets are using the Top choice ONLY.
2) Dutch Win bets use the Top 3 picks w/a “PASS” when Profit Margin is less then 50%.
3) $2 Quinella bets are done without any finesse by boxing ALL selections posted. (15 Bets w/6 picks)
4) $2 Triple bets involve Keying ONLY the Top selection using the following structure:
(K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ): 60 Bets
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show

RACE STATIC TOTE RESULTS TOP CHOICE DUTCH PROFIT QUINELLA TRIPLE $2
EARLY PICKS $2 WIN ONLY TOP 3 MARGIN % $2 BOX ALL TOP KEY/ALL
1 3-2 w/ 8-1-4-9 10-2-1-13 (2.00) (35.00) 66% (30.00) (120.00)

2 1-2 w/ 8-3-11-12 8-11-9-2 (2.00) PASS 21% 100.50 (120.00)

3 1-2 w/ 4-3-5 4-2-7-5 (2.00) PASS 22% 7.00 (72.00)

4 1-2 w/ 6-5-7-4 7-4-10-1 (2.00) PASS 49% 46.70 (120.00)

5 3-2 w/ 7-1-6-13 14-3-7-2 (2.00) PASS 43% (30.00) (120.00)

6 4-1 w/ 2-9-10-7 4-11-9-10 6.30 63.00 93% (30.00) (120.00)

7 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8 1-12-2-8 (2.00) (45.00) 159% (30.00) (120.00)

8 1-3 w/ 12-4-2-5 1-2-12-9 5.00 PASS 11% 23.20 346.60

9 1-7 w/ 11-4-3-5 1-9-11-4/7 8.90 PASS 41% (30.00) (120.00)

10 2-5 w/ 14-1-8-7 2-7-14-10 53.50 42.00 59% 251.80 3400.60
2 OF 4 - 50%
TOTAL AMT BET 20.00 220.00 282.00 1152.00
TOTAL NET $P or $L 61.70 26.00 429.20 3747.20
ROI % 309% 12% 152% 325%

[formula_2002]

nice going nitro.. one heck of a winning performance
here are your roi's in race order, based on final $1 odds (what some here call USA odds)

0.86
3/17
0.75
-1
0.30
0.76
2.74
0.85
1.20
0.80

for a sum of 10.43
did I get the right?

results are limited to your top three early picks while using your dutch formula, as you have most often reported in the past.

per your statement
"EARLY SELECTIONS

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores."