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View Full Version : Chrome and the Bridge jumper proof race


spiketoo
12-16-2016, 10:32 AM
Assummng no BJs (can I type that?) bet to WIN.

LostAl carding 9 hoss race for Chrome. No place and show betting. Hey Art, if it wasnt for our churn.... Stand up and say something! You don't have to participate you know...

Just pay the owners an appearance fee and parade him around. What a crock!

lamboguy
12-16-2016, 10:45 AM
with that field, what difference does it make if they did have place or show?

i will be participating in the win pool on that race.

EasyGoer89
12-16-2016, 12:03 PM
Why not just bar chrome from the wagering and take normal betting on the race?

Track Phantom
12-16-2016, 12:58 PM
Why not just bar chrome from the wagering and take normal betting on the race?
Slippery slope, in my opinion.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-16-2016, 01:03 PM
with that field, what difference does it make if they did have place or show?

i will be participating in the win pool on that race.

Don't see why not. Chrome will be a legit 1/9 to 1/20 or so. How can you not take a swing against in that pool?

EasyGoer89
12-16-2016, 02:44 PM
Slippery slope, in my opinion.

If you just bar him from place and show, just bar HIM you can let people who are coming to bet ON him to win and others who don't want 2.10 win price can bet place on another runner and that's essentially another win pool with the other horses. Win win for both.

AltonKelsey
12-16-2016, 02:52 PM
The notion that Chrome represents some amazing value as a place or show bet is misguided imo.

No better or worse than any other layover favorite. You mean he can't take a bad step?

SG4
12-16-2016, 03:02 PM
If you just bar him from place and show, just bar HIM you can let people who are coming to bet ON him to win and others who don't want 2.10 win price can bet place on another runner and that's essentially another win pool with the other horses. Win win for both.

That's why there's exacta betting.

Track might already be taking a hit with a goodwill move in writing this race, they don't need massive minus pools on top of it.

elhelmete
12-16-2016, 03:13 PM
Yanno, I have a soft spot for Los Al and all the $$$ Doc has dropped into the place with very little thanks.

I sympathized with them a week ago when they said their short winter meet can't support the two important graded stakes.

And I even support their loyalty to Art and CC who really helped but Los Al on the map.

But this race.... :confused: :confused:

dilanesp
12-16-2016, 05:25 PM
Yanno, I have a soft spot for Los Al and all the $$$ Doc has dropped into the place with very little thanks.

I sympathized with them a week ago when they said their short winter meet can't support the two important graded stakes.

And I even support their loyalty to Art and CC who really helped but Los Al on the map.

But this race.... :confused: :confused:

I like Allred as a QH track operator (including some cheap bullring Tb races). Los Al is to QH what the Big M is to harness.

But the thoroughbred thing was always a dumb idea and Allred should have known better.

Tom
12-16-2016, 09:16 PM
Who's idea was this race, Vince McMahon? :rolleyes:
Pay your competitors to race against you?
Did the Brooklyn Brawler enter?
Race is a joke.
As is the track.

cj
12-16-2016, 09:51 PM
I like Allred as a QH track operator (including some cheap bullring Tb races). Los Al is to QH what the Big M is to harness.

But the thoroughbred thing was always a dumb idea and Allred should have known better.

What is the Big M to harness racing?

zico20
12-16-2016, 09:56 PM
Who's idea was this race, Vince McMahon? :rolleyes:
Pay your competitors to race against you?
Did the Brooklyn Brawler enter?
Race is a joke.
As is the track.

The trifecta looks pretty easy to hit. Of course it may only pay 12 dollars but it is better than 2.10 to win on CC.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-16-2016, 10:06 PM
The trifecta looks pretty easy to hit. Of course it may only pay 12 dollars but it is better than 2.10 to win on CC.

With Chrome on top, and any logical bottoms will not pay $12 on the tri.

Feel free to wager upon it though. :ThmbUp:

Zaf
12-17-2016, 12:24 AM
Who's idea was this race, Vince McMahon? :rolleyes:
Pay your competitors to race against you?
Did the Brooklyn Brawler enter?
Race is a joke.
As is the track.

Yes but without those conditions we were looking at a 3 horse field ???

Z

Zaf
12-17-2016, 12:26 AM
Who's idea was this race, Vince McMahon? :rolleyes:
Pay your competitors to race against you?
Did the Brooklyn Brawler enter?
Race is a joke.
As is the track.

Yes I agree with what you write, but its a day for the Chromies, good for the game IMHO.

Z

no breathalyzer
12-17-2016, 01:00 AM
What is the Big M to harness racing?

It is the only place that attracts real $$$ despite of no casino welfare in the sport of harness racing and prob out handles the bottom 20 tracks in that sport combined

EasyGoer89
12-17-2016, 01:05 AM
Chrome will have a massive bet first flash imo, not sure it will be a million bucks, but it might be a few hundred grand, minus win pool possible?

Also, does anyone know if Los al is a normal pick 6, there's a 300k carryover? Thx.

dilanesp
12-17-2016, 01:14 AM
What is the Big M to harness racing?

The center of the universe. :)

plainolebill
12-17-2016, 02:21 AM
Chrome will have a massive bet first flash imo, not sure it will be a million bucks, but it might be a few hundred grand, minus win pool possible?

Also, does anyone know if Los al is a normal pick 6, there's a 300k carryover? Thx.

Pick 6 is races 3-8 for Saturday.

PoloUK6108
12-17-2016, 02:21 AM
Winter challenge is not part of the pick 6

EasyGoer89
12-17-2016, 02:31 AM
Winter challenge is not part of the pick 6

aah, thanks, that prevents me from playing it, too hard without the 'free square'.

marksinger
12-17-2016, 09:37 AM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??

lamboguy
12-17-2016, 10:36 AM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??
i would love to know how CHROME drew a perfect outside post so that he can't get into any trouble and have the same risk as if he was working with another horse in the morning?

Redboard
12-17-2016, 11:13 AM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??

I ask the same question. It's puzzling.

This just goes to show what a lousy breeding deal he got. NO WAY would the insurance to run in this race be less than the winning purse, if he got a deal from one of the major breeders.

dilanesp
12-17-2016, 11:15 AM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the road towards the total destruction of any fan interest in our sport.

lamboguy
12-17-2016, 11:39 AM
I ask the same question. It's puzzling.

This just goes to show what a lousy breeding deal he got. NO WAY would the insurance to run in this race be less than the winning purse, if he got a deal from one of the major breeders.they are paying the same insurance with that horse whether he sits in the barn or runs. he needs to work anyway, that's all this is to that horse. my guess is that if he drew post 1-2 or 3 they would have scratched.

EasyGoer89
12-17-2016, 12:25 PM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??
Horse of the year votes?

cj
12-17-2016, 12:58 PM
Horse of the year votes?

Seriously dude, stop posting just to post. You can't possibly think this race will have any effect on the HOY voting. No reply necessary.

andtheyreoff
12-17-2016, 01:41 PM
The Pegasus World Cup is only 6 weeks away.
Why are they risking anything happening to Chrome by racing him at all before the Pegasus??

By this logic, he shouldn't race, or work out, or leave his stall before January 28. Maybe they should just put him in bubble wrap and prevent him from moving for the next six weeks.

davew
12-17-2016, 06:30 PM
Am I reading the conditions correctly in that any horse that finishes gets $10K? minus $100 nomination and $1500 to start seems like nice race to be in.

Track Phantom
12-17-2016, 06:45 PM
Am I reading the conditions correctly in that any horse that finishes gets $10K? minus $100 nomination and $1500 to start seems like nice race to be in.
Not sure why this bothers me but, if I get this right, the track is willing to pay connections an extra $90k for finishing the race (9 horses x $10k) yet they are pulling the place and show betting (in a 10 horse field mind you) because they don't want to pay a minus pool?

Owners, trainers unwilling to run in one of the biggest stakes races at the meet without getting free money is not exactly supporting the So. Cal. industry.

dilanesp
12-17-2016, 06:47 PM
Not sure why this bothers me but, if I get this right, the track is willing to pay connections an extra $90k for finishing the race (9 horses x $10k) yet they are pulling the place and show betting (in a 10 horse field mind you) because they don't want to pay a minus pool?

Owners, trainers unwilling to run in one of the biggest stakes races at the meet without getting free money is not exactly supporting the So. Cal. industry.

You are forgetting the people who pay admission and buy concessions, and who get to see California Chrome one more time.

This race is for the fans.

johnhannibalsmith
12-17-2016, 07:20 PM
Especially me. I've been secretly looking forward to him in a big field like this with some cheap horses that might get bold from the gate. One thing I've wanted to see is a race where he has an atypical trip due to some kind of wild pace and we get to see him do something a little out of the ordinary in calling upon his class to steamroll a field.

Fager Fan
12-17-2016, 07:22 PM
they are paying the same insurance with that horse whether he sits in the barn or runs. he needs to work anyway, that's all this is to that horse. my guess is that if he drew post 1-2 or 3 they would have scratched.

Ding ding! His insurance doesn't change, the race is called a PREP, and no clue what he's talking about the lousy breeding deal.

dilanesp
12-17-2016, 07:31 PM
https://s30.postimg.org/iwmo54vep/20161217_162110.jpg

no breathalyzer
12-17-2016, 07:41 PM
https://s30.postimg.org/iwmo54vep/20161217_162110.jpg


what a good looking champ!

johnhannibalsmith
12-17-2016, 07:50 PM
Kudos to Victor for letting him stride home. That was kind of fun in an exhibition sort of way.

davew
12-17-2016, 09:22 PM
You are forgetting the people who pay admission and buy concessions, and who get to see California Chrome one more time.

This race is for the fans.

I suspect there also are some $2 win bets going home as souvenirs.

Zaf
12-17-2016, 10:07 PM
what a good looking champ!

A real champ ! :ThmbUp:

linrom1
12-17-2016, 11:12 PM
If ARROGATE was in this race, he would be dusted like some cheap trash. ARROGATE could NEVER run this fast a MILE....and CHROME was coasting.

cj
12-17-2016, 11:20 PM
If ARROGATE was in this race, he would be dusted like some cheap trash. ARROGATE could NEVER run this fast a MILE....and CHROME was coasting.


Oh come on. It was a lightning fast track. Arrogate beat him last time, and he'll beat him again in February in my opinion. He'd beat him from 5f to a mile and a half. I say that as a big California Chrome fan, too.

Frost king
12-17-2016, 11:26 PM
Baffert has beaten him 3 times with 2 different horses.

johnhannibalsmith
12-17-2016, 11:47 PM
Walther Solis has outfinished him twice with two different horses!

davew
12-17-2016, 11:52 PM
Especially me. I've been secretly looking forward to him in a big field like this with some cheap horses that might get bold from the gate. One thing I've wanted to see is a race where he has an atypical trip due to some kind of wild pace and we get to see him do something a little out of the ordinary in calling upon his class to steamroll a field.

He was 5 wide the whole way.... and not in lead until top of stretch.

Zaf
12-18-2016, 12:03 AM
2 great horses, looking forward to the race :jump:

Z

SharpCat
12-18-2016, 12:41 AM
Oh come on. It was a lightning fast track. Arrogate beat him last time, and he'll beat him again in February in my opinion. He'd beat him from 5f to a mile and a half. I say that as a big California Chrome fan, too.

Agreed. IMO it would take something odd like a poor break, or a mistake by Mike for Chrome to turn the tables. Not likely to happen either. Arrogate just has more raw talent than Chrome to be honest.

Hard to believe a horse who broke his maiden in June would beat Chrome in the Breeders Cup Classic. Poor Chrome was miles better than the rest but just happened to run into a monster in Arrogate.

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 01:07 AM
Agreed. IMO it would take something odd like a poor break, or a mistake by Mike for Chrome to turn the tables. Not likely to happen either. Arrogate just has more raw talent than Chrome to be honest.

Hard to believe a horse who broke his maiden in June would beat Chrome in the Breeders Cup Classic. Poor Chrome was miles better than the rest but just happened to run into a monster in Arrogate.

One thing nobody is talking about is post position. 12 horse field, short run into the first turn. It's gonna matter.

SharpCat
12-18-2016, 03:54 AM
One thing nobody is talking about is post position. 12 horse field, short run into the first turn. It's gonna matter.

Yeah that can come into play for sure. Hope it doesn't for either of them.

Should have made the race 1-3/16 or 1-1/4.

spiketoo
12-18-2016, 08:20 AM
You are forgetting the people who pay admission and buy concessions, and who get to see California Chrome one more time.

This race is for the fans.

Wow, really? I find this rather myopic.

How about free admission and pgms 'for the fans'? Or maybe place and show betting 'for the fans'? Wrong audience I guess. Let's pay the owners instead.

This was nothing but an ego stroke for Allred. Everyone talked about LostAl for all of 12 hours. To thank Chrome for training there? Just give them 50K to wake up from his stall and parade him around.

This was a sham of a horse race. They gave the losers 10K to owners and trainers who said 'I'll just see if my hoss likes dirt' or '10K for a workout? Can we go around twice???'

For once, just once do something no matter how symbolic for those of us that churn. I don't want tshirts or a gimmick P6 jackpot bet that reduces the consols by 50%. The game is dying even further with stunts like this. And it was a stunt.

Tom
12-18-2016, 09:16 AM
Originally Posted by dilanesp
One thing nobody is talking about is post position. 12 horse field, short run into the first turn. It's gonna matter.

Yeah, right. :rolleyes:
It was an exhibition race, and not one of those other paid rivals was going to make any serious runs. They were paid to let him shine. They were sparring partners.

It was a rigged race.
He is a good horse, but this one embarrasses him.

the little guy
12-18-2016, 09:37 AM
If ARROGATE was in this race, he would be dusted like some cheap trash. ARROGATE could NEVER run this fast a MILE....and CHROME was coasting.

Your resume just keeps growing.

stlseeeek
12-18-2016, 11:50 AM
If ARROGATE was in this race, he would be dusted like some cheap trash. ARROGATE could NEVER run this fast a MILE....and CHROME was coasting.


LOL, a first time starter, nearly broke the track record.(1:08.1/5). So please spare me that BS.

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 11:50 AM
Wow, really? I find this rather myopic.

How about free admission and pgms 'for the fans'? Or maybe place and show betting 'for the fans'? Wrong audience I guess. Let's pay the owners instead.

This was nothing but an ego stroke for Allred. Everyone talked about LostAl for all of 12 hours. To thank Chrome for training there? Just give them 50K to wake up from his stall and parade him around.

This was a sham of a horse race. They gave the losers 10K to owners and trainers who said 'I'll just see if my hoss likes dirt' or '10K for a workout? Can we go around twice???'

For once, just once do something no matter how symbolic for those of us that churn. I don't want tshirts or a gimmick P6 jackpot bet that reduces the consols by 50%. The game is dying even further with stunts like this. And it was a stunt.

Fans aren't all bettors.

You seem to have total contempt for people who go to a racetrack just to see horses run, or to watch a champion up close.

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 11:51 AM
Yeah, right. :rolleyes:
It was an exhibition race, and not one of those other paid rivals was going to make any serious runs. They were paid to let him shine. They were sparring partners.

It was a rigged race.
He is a good horse, but this one embarrasses him.

I was talking about post position in the Pegasus.

spiketoo
12-18-2016, 12:13 PM
Fans aren't all bettors.

You seem to have total contempt for people who go to a racetrack just to see horses run, or to watch a champion up close.

I do not have contempt for people who do not bet. I have contempt for tracks and management in general who blatantly and willfully ignore the other half of the revenue stream equation of horse racing.

This is a track that took 180K of purse money which is generated from the takeout of churn and gave it away like welfare. This from a track where their highest weekday purse earlier was a 45K MSW.

elhelmete
12-18-2016, 12:23 PM
I was at Los Al yesterday.

1) not a huge day in terms of quality racing. BUT.....

2) massive day as far as expression of good will, big happy crowd, overheard lots of positive feeling for Doc Allred and Los Al as a friendly facility.

It would take a pretty sad curmudgeon to think of this as not a good day for racing.

ronsmac
12-18-2016, 12:45 PM
I do not have contempt for people who do not bet. I have contempt for tracks and management in general who blatantly and willfully ignore the other half of the revenue stream equation of horse racing.

This is a track that took 180K of purse money which is generated from the takeout of churn and gave it away like welfare. This from a track where their highest weekday purse earlier was a 45K MSW.I'd guess they were hoping to make up the difference with increased attendance and handle. I didn't check the numbers, but with such a big carryover , I'm sure both surpassed last years on the corresponding day.

spiketoo
12-18-2016, 12:47 PM
I was at Los Al yesterday.

1) not a huge day in terms of quality racing. BUT.....

2) massive day as far as expression of good will, big happy crowd, overheard lots of positive feeling for Doc Allred and Los Al as a friendly facility.

It would take a pretty sad curmudgeon to think of this as not a good day for racing.

I don't begrudge the 'big happy crowd'. But when you take away 180K of purse money that could have been used to field some better races during the week just to give a champion horse an exhibition race, then you are disrespecting the bettors that fuel your champion. As I've stated, they could have paraded him around for the fans as they have done at other tracks for 'goodwill'. Paying horses just to run around the track so Chrome could have a 'race' is not horse racing.

elhelmete
12-18-2016, 12:59 PM
I don't begrudge the 'big happy crowd'. But when you take away 180K of purse money that could have been used to field some better races during the week just to give a champion horse an exhibition race, then you are disrespecting the bettors that fuel your champion. As I've stated, they could have paraded him around for the fans as they have done at other tracks for 'goodwill'. Paying horses just to run around the track so Chrome could have a 'race' is not horse racing.

I agree somewhat and commented as such in this thread. In the week before the race Los Al was saying how their purses can't support the two graded stakes in their winter meet...and then this.

That said, I can't honestly be too bad of a grinch...

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 01:13 PM
I do not have contempt for people who do not bet. I have contempt for tracks and management in general who blatantly and willfully ignore the other half of the revenue stream equation of horse racing.

This is a track that took 180K of purse money which is generated from the takeout of churn and gave it away like welfare. This from a track where their highest weekday purse earlier was a 45K MSW.

It wasn't welfare. It created a race that people wanted to watch.

Tracks do stuff like that all the time.

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 01:14 PM
I was at Los Al yesterday.

1) not a huge day in terms of quality racing. BUT.....

2) massive day as far as expression of good will, big happy crowd, overheard lots of positive feeling for Doc Allred and Los Al as a friendly facility.

It would take a pretty sad curmudgeon to think of this as not a good day for racing.

I was also there. This is right on the money.

spiketoo
12-18-2016, 04:12 PM
It wasn't welfare. It created a race that people wanted to watch.

Tracks do stuff like that all the time.

Yeah and I guess people liked watching the gladiators back in the day. Honestly as a 'fan' of the horse you have no issue with him beating up on such inferior stock? You just wanted to see him race no matter the competition? Like watching DIV 1 college teams beat up on DIV 2 teams where the DIV 2 teams just show up for the money???

If you like watching 32K CLM run against a champion in his prime, then that's your prerogative. Just as it is mine to lambast this 'unpresidented' sham of a 'race'. (CJ, technically that's not political....).

And if its not welfare to pay 6-9 10K for getting in the gate then what is it? And what other track has ever done this??? Nothing disparaging intended but really if you don't gamble you are more than allowed to join the 'big happy crowd' but you have no seat at the table when it comes to discussions of how my churn is distributed.

EasyGoer89
12-18-2016, 04:26 PM
You are forgetting the people who pay admission and buy concessions, and who get to see California Chrome one more time.

This race is for the fans.

How does that benefit the fans/customers? They don't get part of the purse and the price for a cup of coffee doesn't go down, zero financial benefit not to mention chromes presence makes it a horrible 'betting race'

elhelmete
12-18-2016, 04:26 PM
Yeah and I guess people liked watching the gladiators back in the day. Honestly as a 'fan' of the horse you have no issue with him beating up on such inferior stock? You just wanted to see him race no matter the competition? Like watching DIV 1 college teams beat up on DIV 2 teams where the DIV 2 teams just show up for the money???

If you like watching 32K CLM run against a champion in his prime, then that's your prerogative. Just as it is mine to lambast this 'unpresidented' sham of a 'race'. (CJ, technically that's not political....).

And if its not welfare to pay 6-9 10K for getting in the gate then what is it? And what other track has ever done this??? Nothing disparaging intended but really if you don't gamble you are more than allowed to join the 'big happy crowd' but you have no seat at the table when it comes to discussions of how my churn is distributed.

It's not the first time starters have gotten paid. Not by a longshot.

Nobody forces you to bet on ONE race.

That said, I nevertheless standby my comment that it was a questionable decision coming right on the heels of a "we can't afford our winter stakes schedule" announcement from Los Al.

elhelmete
12-18-2016, 04:27 PM
How does that benefit the fans/customers? They don't get part of the purse and the price for a cup of coffee doesn't go down, zero financial benefit not to mention chromes presence makes it a horrible 'betting race'

Show them a good time and at least some are more likely to come back.

Even as a bettor and small-time owner I am perfectly content to sit out one betting race with my hands in my pockets and watch a champion.

classhandicapper
12-18-2016, 04:52 PM
Beyer gave that race a 104?

I know he was ridiculously wide most of the race and this was just a prep, but that suggests a lot of horses behind him ran very sub par races. I'm not sure I'm buying it. Visually it just looked better and he came home very well.

In any event I think it was more important for this horse to have a good prep than Arrogate because running fresh is a strength of Baffert's and not really a strength of Sherman's.

therussmeister
12-18-2016, 05:13 PM
I'd guess they were hoping to make up the difference with increased attendance and handle. I didn't check the numbers, but with such a big carryover , I'm sure both surpassed last years on the corresponding day.
The race cost $58,000 due to a negative win pool, but that would be shared by every wagering outlet that took bets on that race.

dilanesp
12-18-2016, 05:14 PM
How does that benefit the fans/customers? They don't get part of the purse and the price for a cup of coffee doesn't go down, zero financial benefit not to mention chromes presence makes it a horrible 'betting race'

They got to say goodbye tp Chrome and see him run once more.

ronsmac
12-18-2016, 07:54 PM
The race cost $58,000 due to a negative win pool, but that would be shared by every wagering outlet that took bets on that race.I was talking total handle for the day and any additional admissions,souvenirs,hot dogs etc..

classhandicapper
12-18-2016, 08:36 PM
I hope the rematch comes off.

The way I see it, the probably of Arrogate running another monster race is higher for the rematch than it was for the Classic because the Classic verified that the Travers wasn't a one time total freak effort.

One the flip side, I've always thought Chrome was a hair better at 9F than 10F and I can't recall Baffert shipping into GP for years. That ship is sometimes tricky. Chrome has been everywhere.

senortout
12-18-2016, 09:28 PM
Beyer gave that race a 104?

I know he was ridiculously wide most of the race and this was just a prep, but that suggests a lot of horses behind him ran very sub par races. I'm not sure I'm buying it. Visually it just looked better and he came home very well.

In any event I think it was more important for this horse to have a good prep than Arrogate because running fresh is a strength of Baffert's and not really a strength of Sherman's.

According to what I heard, he set a track record in the race. The race was his to lose, as well. Without a lot of fanfare, I was able to triple my investment in the race using the superfecta. A lot of what I hear on the forum is different than what the fans thought at the event. Why?

cj
12-18-2016, 09:47 PM
According to what I heard, he set a track record in the race. The race was his to lose, as well. Without a lot of fanfare, I was able to triple my investment in the race using the superfecta. A lot of what I hear on the forum is different than what the fans thought at the event. Why?

Track record doesn't mean a whole bunch. They've been running there only a few meets and don't have any big races for good, older horses (until this one). They rarely run a mile and a sixteenth. They run most routes at one mile. Not to mention that track has been very fast.

Redboard
12-19-2016, 06:15 AM
The race cost $58,000 due to a negative win pool, but that would be shared by every wagering outlet that took bets on that race.

That's a very rare occurrence. I can't remember the last negative win pool in a Tbred race. anyone? I believe Ruffian had a couple, but I know that Secretariat didn't.

Redboard
12-19-2016, 06:30 AM
Ding ding! His insurance doesn't change, the race is called a PREP, and no clue what he's talking about the lousy breeding deal.

That's my point, the insurance didn't change. If you had a old car worth $100, insurance on that wouldn't be much either. They didn’t release the details of their breeding deal, but I have to believe that it’s back-end weighted with a majority of the money being a percentage of the business he generates.
Do you think that if a major breeder already gave them a $50 million check and had 200 mares covered this spring for $100k a pop, that they would let CC run for $50k? The race adds nothing to his breeding value and horses do break down.

classhandicapper
12-19-2016, 09:02 AM
According to what I heard, he set a track record in the race. The race was his to lose, as well. Without a lot of fanfare, I was able to triple my investment in the race using the superfecta. A lot of what I hear on the forum is different than what the fans thought at the event. Why?

I never made figures for Los Al. I'm sure the 104 figure is correct in terms of the time of the race compared to the rest of the races that day. It just seems light to me relative to the talent of the horses behind him.

He utterly crushed them despite being extremely wide on both turns. Even if the outside paths were a little better that day as often happens at LRC (I haven't looked at the charts or replays yet) he was terrific.

CC looks more athletic to me now than many of the top horses I have seen. I think he has been a legitimately great horse this year. He may have run into another great horse that's a bit better, but I think people are under appreciating him now.

cj
12-19-2016, 09:12 AM
I never made figures for Los Al. I'm sure the 104 figure is correct in terms of the time of the race compared to the rest of the races that day. It just seems light to me relative to the talent of the horses behind him.

He utterly crushed them despite being extremely wide on both turns. Even if the outside paths were a little better that day as often happens at LRC (I haven't looked at the charts or replays yet) he was terrific.

CC looks more athletic to me now than many of the top horses I have seen. I think he has been a legitimately great horse this year. He may have run into another great horse that's a bit better, but I think people are under appreciating him now.

I personally think it is too low based on the other routes that day by a few lengths at least.

rrpic6
12-19-2016, 09:19 AM
aah, thanks, that prevents me from playing it, too hard without the 'free square'.

REDBOARD ALERT! Had to play the Pick 6 since the carryover was over 300K. Glad Chrome wasn't part of it or it pays about $100.

WebService
December 17, 2016 2:21 PM 048234 Race 3 Los Alamitos TB $2.00 P6 (PWHL) 1, 7, 8 / 2, 6 / 3, 6 / 5 / 4, 10 / 1, 6 Bet $96 $1,580

RR

classhandicapper
12-19-2016, 09:43 AM
I personally think it is too low based on the other routes that day by a few lengths at least.

Thanks.

I have very limited data on LRC and would be hard pressed to even guess other than looking at the other horses in the race.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-20-2016, 09:15 PM
Yeah...

Art Sherman and company were able to "build" a paid workout for Chrome in a setting that everybody would lather all over the workout.

Won't matter come January.

His "better" is only getting bigger, faster, and stronger entering his 4YO season.

I can't wait to not wager on that race. :faint:

LottaKash
12-20-2016, 11:12 PM
Yeah...

Art Sherman and company were able to "build" a paid workout for Chrome in a setting that everybody would lather all over the workout.



That is the first thing that came to mind as well, (paid workout, in company) when I initially saw the CC scenario at Los Alamitos...

dilanesp
12-21-2016, 01:03 AM
Yeah...

Art Sherman and company were able to "build" a paid workout for Chrome in a setting that everybody would lather all over the workout.

Won't matter come January.

His "better" is only getting bigger, faster, and stronger entering his 4YO season.

I can't wait to not wager on that race. :faint:

It's very possible Arrogate gets better, but nothing is assured. People are acting as if he crushed CC in the BCC and he didn't. CC has a legitimate chance and Los Al served as a nice prep. At least Sherman runs his horse. What does Baffert do with his?

classhandicapper
12-21-2016, 09:02 AM
It's very possible Arrogate gets better, but nothing is assured. People are acting as if he crushed CC in the BCC and he didn't. CC has a legitimate chance and Los Al served as a nice prep. At least Sherman runs his horse. What does Baffert do with his?

It's interesting.

I like the idea that Baffert is probably going to give Arrogate a break because he's so darn good getting fresh horses to run huge efforts. But I think it was essential that CC get a prep because that's not Sherman's specialty and imo CC has done his best running with preps.

Arrogate has been the better horse (at least for 2 races). But just as there was no guarantee he would duplicate his monster Travers, there is still no guarantee he can duplicate it even when he's done it twice. There have been other top horses that paired 120s and then dropped back into the more common teen range. It's very hard to sustain that extreme level even if you are trained by Baffert.

Secondly, I agree with you about the gap between them.

Many trip handicappers are going to look at the ground loss Arrogate had relative to CC and assume the gap between them is larger than the official finish. But I made that track what I call "outside OK". What that means to me is that horses in the outside paths were at no real disadvantage to the horses saving ground (certainly not 1 for 1). If I am right, the gap between them that day was closer to the official finish than the extra 17 feet Trakus says that Arrogate traveled. It was more like a neck when you watch how they were ridden in the last strides.

Arrogate can run all day. It looked like he was just getting started at the end of the Classic. 10F or maybe even 12F is probably his best distance. I've always felt CC is a hair better at 9F than 10F.

I think this race is closer than people think. It could be another classic. The trip will probably decide it.

Tom
12-21-2016, 10:12 AM
Considering where each horse is his career, who is more likely to improve, Chrome or Arrogate?

dilanesp
12-21-2016, 01:54 PM
Considering where each horse is his career, who is more likely to improve, Chrome or Arrogate?

Arrogate, obviously.

Just don't treat it as a sure thing, is all I am saying. California Chrome has a legitimate shot in the Pegasus. He wasn't beaten that much by Arrogate in the BCC, he's still by all accounts in excellent form, and Arrogate is probably going to have to fire his best effort to beat him.

Do you disagree?

cj
12-21-2016, 02:14 PM
Arrogate, obviously.

Just don't treat it as a sure thing, is all I am saying. California Chrome has a legitimate shot in the Pegasus. He wasn't beaten that much by Arrogate in the BCC, he's still by all accounts in excellent form, and Arrogate is probably going to have to fire his best effort to beat him.

Do you disagree?

I'd say it about 3 to 5 Arrogate, 2 to 1 Chrome, 5% for the rest.

Tom
12-21-2016, 02:30 PM
Arrogate, obviously.

Just don't treat it as a sure thing, is all I am saying. California Chrome has a legitimate shot in the Pegasus. He wasn't beaten that much by Arrogate in the BCC, he's still by all accounts in excellent form, and Arrogate is probably going to have to fire his best effort to beat him.

Do you disagree?

I think that 120 Beyer, or whatever it was, is not his top.
This one may well pop a 130 before he is through.

I thing Chrome will need to run his best, and at 9.0F he probably will.
GP might want to schedule some kind a parade to fill the gap between those two and the rest of the field in the stretch. :D

classhandicapper
12-22-2016, 10:44 AM
Considering where each horse is his career, who is more likely to improve, Chrome or Arrogate?

In general, a lightly raced 3yo like Arrogate is way more likely to improve than a fully seasoned 5yo. The monkey wrench in that theory is the level Arrogate has already achieved. Few horses ever reach 120 and even fewer do it twice.

So what is more likely?

He develops into a 124-125 horse in 2017 or that he is really more of a 115-116 horse now (give or take) that can put up 120 figures on his best days. Then maybe he'll develop into more of a 118-119 horse that can put up 124-125 on his best days?

The monkey wrench in what I am saying is that Baffert is the trainer and he's spacing the races trying to get peaks on all the right days. So far he's 2 for 2.

HuggingTheRail
12-22-2016, 06:26 PM
Considering where each horse is his career, who is more likely to improve, Chrome or Arrogate?

Well, I am with the others and would say Arrogate


Flip question: Who is more likely to bounce from their past race(s)?

classhandicapper
12-22-2016, 07:11 PM
I'm going to add one more thing that hasn't been mentioned. I'm not much of a weight guy. However, for those that are, Chrome spotted Arrogate 4 pounds in the Classic. I assume they will be running at level weights in the Pegasus.

no breathalyzer
12-23-2016, 05:01 AM
Arrogate, obviously.

Just don't treat it as a sure thing, is all I am saying. California Chrome has a legitimate shot in the Pegasus. He wasn't beaten that much by Arrogate in the BCC, he's still by all accounts in excellent form, and Arrogate is probably going to have to fire his best effort to beat him.

Do you disagree?

legitimate shot? .... :ThmbUp: Chrome is a locko :ThmbUp: if nothing drastic happens between now and race. if he is 2-1 my ship is in as i will be sending it in hard