PDA

View Full Version : The Best Inside Tips


Whosonfirst
12-07-2016, 10:17 PM
It occurred to me many years ago, that the best inside information on a live horse comes from our own handicapping. The late Al Illich spoke of this in his book back in 1971. It would probably be a good 10 to 15 years before I got to read that.

I spent my early years playing the horses at Penn, and it would take me three to four hours to handicap a whole race card. One Friday or Saturday evening, I'd selected a mare named Evelyn's Echo in a 6 furlong sprint. Like most of my selections I figured she'd probably be one of the first two or three favorites. As it turned out she went off at 8-1 and paid 18.80 to win. She seemed to not even break a sweat beating this decent bunch of fillies and mares. At least that's how it looked to me.

One week later, her trainer who'd just that week did an interview on a local sports radio show, entered Evelyn's Echo in a 1 mile 70 yd race at the next class up. While I'm not superstitious, that seemed like an omen to me. Having zeroed in her on the previous race, and seeing her performance, I was pretty sure she'd do well against this bunch. There was no buzz at the track that this mare would be competitive in this race. That lack of talk suited me fine. I figured this information was something that only I possessed(at least in my mind) and she did win again and paid the exact same amount to the dime, $18.80.

Today at Aqueduct, Battle Midway returned in five days in an 50K Allowance race at 1m70yds. How appropriate is that name on Pearl Harbor day? Any way, Battle Midway had just won his previous two races at 16K and 25K claimers. In his last race, he was my only Speed Improvement horse and had to overcome an outside post racing 5 wide much of the race. Seeing him do that told me he was much the best. Today BM was a +11 Speed Improvement play along with the 2-1 second favorite. I almost didn't bet him as he looked a little tired in the walk during the post parade. But he seemed to perk up during the gallop. Today's condition was muddy. Seeing him close from that outside post last time, made me a believer in his condition. He won again at 24.00. The point of this story to me, is our hard work and observation is the best source of inside information.
Would love to hear some of yours.

sammy the sage
12-08-2016, 08:13 AM
1st...post-time favorite has DROPPED a 100 lbs in weight since last...

2nd..horse is only getting a 50% dose shot Lasix 1st time out...or is now getting the THE FULL dose...

3rd..equipment changes NOT listed...from brindle/bits to shadow rolls ect...

now THAT/those are inside info that SHOULD NOT be....

By the way....nice redboard..."pat on the back"...atta boy...ect...

Whosonfirst
12-08-2016, 09:12 AM
1st...post-time favorite has DROPPED a 100 lbs in weight since last...

2nd..horse is only getting a 50% dose shot Lasix 1st time out...or is now getting the THE FULL dose...

3rd..equipment changes NOT listed...from brindle/bits to shadow rolls ect...

now THAT/those are inside info that SHOULD NOT be....

By the way....nice redboard..."pat on the back"...atta boy...ect...

Guess I deserved that. Here's four in a row, pre-race, chk #6 -#9, all double digit, average payoff 18.00
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134179

A couple more, double digit, first one exacta and triple also. Chk #1, #8 & #15
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134065

Couple more at Big A- one race with low price, but winner and triple, 2nd one double digits winner, plus exacta and triple. Chk #2, 3, & #4.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134406

I suck at CD. played a couple, another double digit winner, post #1.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134355

Thought I'd try Mahoning. First time for me. 2/2, one low price, 2nd one double digit.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134353

Back to Parx. made two picks. 2nd one 16.60 winner and exacta.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134313

I don't play supers, but here's one pre-race
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134476

Another 24.40 winner at Parx, 110.00 exacta and 762.20 Triple on NorCalGreg's thread, #2026-pre-race
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129208&page=136&pp=15
Again on Greg's thread above, No More Strippers- $32.00. See #2031, again pre-race.
Finally the $200K Stakes race at Mahoning last month, Mo Don't Know-$13.80. albeit through a DQ. Check #2014 -15 in Greg's thread again.
I only started posting regularly in October this year. And to be fair, I've post "some" losers too.

NorCalGreg
12-08-2016, 01:23 PM
That wasn't a really friendly response you got, Trace. I and many others enjoy your posts

I'm sure you saw the DELETED response you got last night.... the POS who posted was lucky CJ saw it and just deleted it. If Mike had seen it---pretty sure he AND his garbage would be deleted.

It's just a matter of time for that jerk-off anyway---he adds nothing to this forum.

Hang in there brother :ThmbUp:

Whosonfirst
12-08-2016, 02:44 PM
Greg, no actually I didn't see it. Doesn't matter. Hayll I've been on a real confrontational website for over ten years. These guys are pussycats by comparison. Thanks

ultracapper
12-09-2016, 03:30 AM
1st...post-time favorite has DROPPED a 100 lbs in weight since last...

2nd..horse is only getting a 50% dose shot Lasix 1st time out...or is now getting the THE FULL dose...

3rd..equipment changes NOT listed...from brindle/bits to shadow rolls ect...

now THAT/those are inside info that SHOULD NOT be....

By the way....nice redboard..."pat on the back"...atta boy...ect...


Sometimes you just gotta be proud. Gotta give credit, it was a good bit of long term handicapping, and a great example of there being times when you can follow a specific horse and really get a solid grip on just exactly what the connections are trying to accomplish. That was a solid example of understanding what's happening, having a clear and accurate opinion of the subject horse's ability, and being able to confidently capitalize on it.
Well played Abbott.

jasperson
12-09-2016, 08:01 AM
The only trainer tips I will listen to are from a trainer that doesn't bet. Only then if he tells me something new about a horse. Like he has never ran on slop
but in workout he really likes it

pandy
12-09-2016, 08:08 AM
It occurred to me many years ago, that the best inside information on a live horse comes from our own handicapping. The late Al Illich spoke of this in his book back in 1971. It would probably be a good 10 to 15 years before I got to read that.

I spent my early years playing the horses at Penn, and it would take me three to four hours to handicap a whole race card. One Friday or Saturday evening, I'd selected a mare named Evelyn's Echo in a 6 furlong sprint. Like most of my selections I figured she'd probably be one of the first two or three favorites. As it turned out she went off at 8-1 and paid 18.80 to win. She seemed to not even break a sweat beating this decent bunch of fillies and mares. At least that's how it looked to me.

One week later, her trainer who'd just that week did an interview on a local sports radio show, entered Evelyn's Echo in a 1 mile 70 yd race at the next class up. While I'm not superstitious, that seemed like an omen to me. Having zeroed in her on the previous race, and seeing her performance, I was pretty sure she'd do well against this bunch. There was no buzz at the track that this mare would be competitive in this race. That lack of talk suited me fine. I figured this information was something that only I possessed(at least in my mind) and she did win again and paid the exact same amount to the dime, $18.80.

Today at Aqueduct, Battle Midway returned in five days in an 50K Allowance race at 1m70yds. How appropriate is that name on Pearl Harbor day? Any way, Battle Midway had just won his previous two races at 16K and 25K claimers. In his last race, he was my only Speed Improvement horse and had to overcome an outside post racing 5 wide much of the race. Seeing him do that told me he was much the best. Today BM was a +11 Speed Improvement play along with the 2-1 second favorite. I almost didn't bet him as he looked a little tired in the walk during the post parade. But he seemed to perk up during the gallop. Today's condition was muddy. Seeing him close from that outside post last time, made me a believer in his condition. He won again at 24.00. The point of this story to me, is our hard work and observation is the best source of inside information.
Would love to hear some of yours.


Hard to argue with you. I know a gentleman who, years ago, had $400,000 in savings than he had made from owning a retail store. He paid jockeys and trainers on the NYRA circuit thinking that he could benefit from inside information and lost almost all of his savings. He made all of the money back in another business and became an excellent handicapper who never relied on inside information again.

upthecreek
12-09-2016, 08:27 AM
I would say most of the time, trainers arent really sure about their horse, other than the standard he's doing well Yesterday 2nd race at Los Al, Kruljac had the #6 horse Before the race he told Simon Bray he was ready to ship the horse over to Tup, hopefully to break his maiden What happened? The horse won and paid $154+

pandy
12-09-2016, 08:32 AM
Battle Midway on opening day at Aqueduct inner track was a big overlay, no doubt. My Diamond System had him top rated but I picked him second and put the four, Foreset, on top. These two were clearly the two sharpest horses in the race and they had the best recent speed figures. Foreset had set the pace against the bias in his last and I gave him the edge because of that, but the betting was way off. Foreset deserved to be the favorite but Battle Midway should not have been 11-1, more like 5-2.

I'd imagine that a lot of betters felt that Battle Midway would bounce after his speed figure jump in his last start. From a class standpoint, it was also a very interesting race. Battle Midway had won two in a row and had 3 career wins. He was going from a $25,000 N3L to a race for horses that had won for a $50,000 tag or NW1, so most of the horses only had 1 career win. This was not a step up in class but because of the $25,000 price tag he had in his last, I'm sure that many bettors thought that Battle Midway was moving up in class. But he was facing horses that had won for a $50,000 tag in a maiden race, not an open claiming race. So he may have actually been dropping in class, but he certainly was not facing tougher horses.

However, all that being said, the track on opening day was muddy and although it was listed as "sealed," the rail was dead and the races were dominated by closers and horses that raced wide. Eric Cancel took Battle Midway four, five, and then seven wide and rallied to win. The trip and bias really helped him.

pandy
12-09-2016, 08:35 AM
I would say most of the time, trainers arent really sure about their horse, other than the standard he's doing well Yesterday 2nd race at Los Al, Kruljac had the #6 horse Before the race he told Simon Bray he was ready to ship the horse over to Tup, hopefully to break his maiden What happened? The horse won and paid $154+


Great point. This happens all of the time. Yet many horse players think that the trainers actually know when their horse is going to win. They do, when the horse has a name like American Pharoah, Zenyatta, etc...

ultracapper
12-09-2016, 12:03 PM
I would say most of the time, trainers arent really sure about their horse, other than the standard he's doing well Yesterday 2nd race at Los Al, Kruljac had the #6 horse Before the race he told Simon Bray he was ready to ship the horse over to Tup, hopefully to break his maiden What happened? The horse won and paid $154+

Not only that, the horse parked.

green80
12-14-2016, 12:15 PM
Often at my local track, I will know every trainer in a race. I quit asking about their horses years ago because usuallly in a 10 horse race 8 of them think they will win and the other two think they have an outside shot. Rarely one will tell me that their horse is sore or off and that is usually the one that will win. The same goes for jockeys, they usually all think they have a shot.

pondman
12-14-2016, 06:31 PM
I'd disagree with most of the comments.

I've created a fake barn for a trainer, and took ownership for a horse that I had never seen before. The trainer, because he didn't have a tag for the State, pass it to another broke trainer. It was a horse that had lost by and average of 28 lengths in it first two starts. They shipped it. They got a jockey who could barely hang on, and the horse total smoked the field. This is a part of the game.

NorCalGreg
12-16-2016, 09:13 AM
I'd disagree with most of the comments.

I've created a fake barn for a trainer, and took ownership for a horse that I had never seen before. The trainer, because he didn't have a tag for the State, pass it to another broke trainer. It was a horse that had lost by and average of 28 lengths in it first two starts. They shipped it. They got a jockey who could barely hang on, and the horse total smoked the field. This is a part of the game.


If true---and I have no reason to think it isn't---stories like that would make a fascinating book/expose on the game.

Nitro
12-16-2016, 01:09 PM
I'd disagree with most of the comments.

Not surprisingly I find myself also disagreeing with many of these comments. Not because they may or may not be true. But because they attempt to explain a very broad question about Insider information with simple (and sometimes singular) examples. I gather that the idea is to make others believe that these examples somehow express a poised truth about inside information in general.

You might have heard that old horse racing adage that goes, “It’s Money that Makes the Mare Run”. I use this simply as a reminder so that those like myself (who are not privy to all of the inside information about a horse’s immediate overall condition) can Identify with those who might have intentions of actually trying to win a race with their entry. These motivations are certainly not based on hearsay, but rather on hard cash.

You first have to rationalize that there might be any number of reasons why a horse might be entered in a specific race for other intentions than trying to win it. You then have to come to terms with the reality that this entire game revolves around money. The only real objective for those either directly or indirectly involved is how it might be pursued and attained. Of course, the connections have 2 options: Try to collect just the purse monies or become part of the betting population and achieve even greater rewards by collecting from the betting pools as well.

So, I’ll just submit that there are other more meaningful ways to get a read on influential insider information (or their intentions).