Determining show bets

[racko]

IS there a way to approximate what a show bet will pay? I like to do show parlays but too short a price is not worth the risk. thanks

[charleslanger]

this is the hard way, but if you carry a pocket calculator: subtract takeout(15% if not handy) from A-total show pool(all horses) and divide this by 3. This amount you will multiply by 2, and the result divide by B-(the total show pool of your horse). Round down the decimals to the next show price level and this is your $2 show price.
Alternately, divide A by B: if your total is a whole number(1 or more) multiply it by 2 and round down like before; if total is less than 1, insert a 1 in front of the decimal and multiply by 2, round down to obtain $2 show price.

[charleslanger]

correction to alternately line. A(-breakage, divided by 3) divided by B...

[charleslanger]

disregard previous posts, i must be on drugs! you can only get a low to high possible pay range, plus formulas were erroneous.
from total pool deduct breakage % and bet totals of the 2 biggest faves plus your horse's, and divide this amount by 3. Now divide this by your horse's total show pool, multiply by 2, and round down pennies to obtain lowest possible show price. Repeat this with the 2 biggest longshots to obtain your highest possible price.
all this work can be rendered moot because bet totals do not finish tabulating 'till after race starts anyway.
sorry for all this mess. i should be shot on the spot.

[kenwoodall]

Just maintain 80% success rate and forget the totes! no chalks!

[betovernetcapper]

Try using At The Races software-it gives min to min place and show min' and max' payoffs.

[pic6vic]

Racko

If you want to play that way, then you must learn how to figure show pools quickly. If your good with numbers you can calculate in your head by practicing with every pool. I trained myself when I did this in the 70's to be able to calculate in about 15 to 20 seconds and do it accurately. It can be done and if you want to play that way train yourself. It is not as hard as you think. helpful hint use round numbers and if the pools are big enough it will not matter. Always use the 2 horses with the most money in the pool, that way you know the minimum. The game has changed a lot with computer betting.

Good luck

[BMeadow]

Two major problems:

(1) Most show money goes in at last moments and "corrects" for any supposed overlays. At some tracks, as little as a $100 show bet can kill your overlay.

(2) Because you never know who's going to come in with your horse, any payoff estimates (which are already problematical due to the problem above) show a wide, wide range.

I use percentage-of-the-pool figures from my book Money Secrets At the Racetrack, using my own odds line for each race. Thus if my horse has 16% of the show pool and I can bet him if he has 21% or less, I bet. I make this calculation when it says "post time" on my screens (I play California tracks where you can get until the horses leave the gate), then bet accordingly. I would never do this with four minutes to post because the numbers change too much.

[kenwoodall]

5 of pool is a good method. i do not bet to show if the tote leader has 305 or more bet on it as the all payoffs may be low. BMeadows book helped me achieve a good profit margin. A show payoff streak of 47 itm in a row at GGF last meet helped too!

[MikeH]

Racko-

Attached is a Zipped file that contains a Lotus file that will calculate the "Will Pays" on place and show pools. Simply put the amount bet on 3 horses in Column b, along with the Total money in the pool. Column C shows you the actual Money payout, before rounding. Column D are the estimated payouts. You cam use Column C to see how far "in" to a bracket your horse is.. in the file Horse#2 is paying $0.209 (very close to 20 cents), so it wouldn't take much action to push this horse from $2.40 to $2.20... If you update this starting at about 3 minutes to post with every click, you can get a rough idea of whether your horse is going up or down in price.

To paraphrase what Barry and others have said, "this is not an exact science!...

If you don't have Lotus, you should be able to open this in Excel or some other spreadsheet program.

[MikeH]

PA-

Am I doing something wrong? I either can't see the file that I attempted to attach, or I didn't do it right? Please advise...

[PaceAdvantage]

I have to personally clear all attachments due to any viruses that may be intentionally or unintentionally uploaded...it should be up in a minute or so...


==PA

[MikeH]

PA

Thanks...

(And also for all your work in sponsoring this Board.)

Mike

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally posted by racko
IS there a way to approximate what a show bet will pay? I like to do show parlays but too short a price is not worth the risk. thanks


Show prices are too short to play. There is only one circumstance where (IMHO) that Show betting is worth the risk. Just wait for a bridgejumper (someone who bet a horse heavily in the Show pool - and that total usually exceeds the Win pool) and bet AGAINST that horse by playing every other horse for Show. It's the best risk/reward ratio at the track when it occurs. All you need is to have the favorite finish out of the money.

Here is a most recent example of a bridgejumper horse failing to hit the board:


8th race - Laurel Park - March 02, 2003
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Take Achance On Me 71.60 19.00 123.40
3 Jorgie Stover 20.60 149.80
6 Trounce 25.20

Good luck in your endeavours!

[tricky(netcapper)]

exactly what the last poster said is what you want to look for but doesn't have to be that dramatic. i look for horses who are faves with a strong weakness.. eg. against track bias and get hammered to show. find a price horse who suits the bias and seems to be returning to form.

.85 X pool total divided by 3 divided by $$amount on your horse X $amount of your bet. fave must finish out of money.

keep watching them pools . sometimes show is the way to go if someone else thinks a sure thing really isnt so.

trickydicky