HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 12/4

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 10 races with 4 on the Turf and 6 on Awd. (Not the norm w/Turf racing being what is in HK.)

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for at least 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

[kevb]

Hello Nitro. Goo to see you back again today. You've been taking some hits from the board lately.

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any live selections for Hong Kong this morning.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 3 very competitive races this morning: #6 -#8 & #10 (watch the money in #6)
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns as well.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) Awd…....1-4 W/ 7-5-9-2 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 or #9 possibly moving up Live)

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Awd.......5-1 W/ 8-6-2-10 ….12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 or #2 possibly moving up Live)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......3-4 W/ 9-1-8-11.......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #8 possibly moving up Live)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Awd.......1-5 W/ 6-3-10-2…...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #12 with the possibly of #3 moving up Live)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Awd ..1-2 W/ 4-7-5-9......2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 or #5 possibly moving up Live)

R#6 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......13-1 W/ 8-3-2-14-6…2:35 AM EST.
(Also of interest are: #14 or #6 possibly moving up Live)

R#7 - 1400M (7F) Turf…......1-4 W/ 2-3-6-7........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 or #6 possibly moving up Live)

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Awd....1-2 W/ 4-3-12-9 …...3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 possibly moving up Live)

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf........5-1 W/ 3-6-13-11-10.....4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 or #13 with possibly moving up Live)

R#10 - 1200M (6F) Awd......1-2 W/ 11-3-12-8..........4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 possibly moving up Live)

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

Hello Nitro. Goo to see you back again today. You've been taking some hits from the board lately.
Hey Kev! How's it going? Good I hope!

Yeah, getting bashed around here seems to be par for the course. It doesn't really phase me, but it can be distracting at times. I generally will respond with the same fervor if necessary.
At least there are some who can still be civilized.

[ReplayRandall]

Nitro, if you wouldn't mind, could you add the field size of each race in your early selections?.....Thanks

Just wanted to see if you analyze before scratches pre-race or after.

[Nitro]

Nitro, if you wouldn't mind, could you add the field size of each race in your early selections?.....Thanks

Just wanted to see if you analyze before scratches pre-race or after.
Not at All. GL

Field Sizes: (No Early scratches)

#1 – 12……......……..#6 - 14
#2 – 14……......……..#7 - 14
#3 – 12……......……..#8 - 14
#4 – 12………......…..#9 - 14
#5 – 14............#10 –12

[Nitro]

NOTE: All Dutch calculations based on U.S. $ Odds and returns.

R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-2...........Results: 4-5-11-2 (2nd choice Early $37 Quin & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 15/1 ) – 4 ( 2.2/1 ) – 7 ( 8.7/1 ) - $51.00 – $51.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 8.7 14.0 BET PRF
$7 $19 $30
$30 $10 $7 $47 $51 109%
$98 $98 $98 Quinella - 1 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live


R#2 - 5-1 W/ 8-6-2-10.......Results: 1-7-6-10 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 6.1/1 ) – 1 ( 1.8/1 ) – 8 ( 11/1 ) - $56.00 – $107.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.8 6.1 11.0 BET PRF
$6 $14 $24
$48 $19 $11 $78 $56 72%
$134 $135 $132 Quinella - 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

R#3 - 3-4 W/ 9-1-8-11............. Results: 11-3-9-4 (6th choice Early $37 Quin/$144 Tri - & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 16/1 ) – 9 ( 1.5/1 ) - $0.00 – $107.00
PASS – Profit margin below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 3.6 16.0 BET PRF
$5 $9 $34
$34 $18 $5 $57 $28 48%
$85 $85 $85 Quinella - 2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-5 W/ 6-3-10-2.........Results: 1-7-5-12 (Top choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 3.7/1 ) – 5 ( 9/1 ) – 6 ( 4.2/1 ) - $47.00 – $154.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.7 4.2 9.0 BET PRF
$9 $10 $20
$20 $18 $9 $47 $47 100%
$94 $94 $94 Quinella - 3 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 4-7-5-9......... Results: 2-11-5-8 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 20/1 ) – 2 ( 6.1/1 ) – 4 ( 11/1 ) - $217.00 – $371.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
6.1 11.0 20.0 BET PRF
$14 $24 $42
$42 $25 $14 $81 $217 268%
$298 $298 $298 Quinella - 4 for 4 Early & 4 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 13-1 W/ 8-3-2-14-6......... Results: 14-8-1-9 (6th choice Early $307 Tri & 2nd choice Live)
Dutch – 13 ( 4.2/1 ) – 1 ( 4.3/1 ) – 8 ( 13/1 ) - ($67.00) – $304.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.3 4.3 13.0 BET PRF
$11 $11 $28
$28 $28 $11 $67 $82 123%
$148 $148 $148 Quinella - 4 for 5 Early & 5 for 5 Live

R#7 - 1-4 W/ 2-3-6-7…Results: 6-1-2-4-3 (5th choice Early $32Quin/ $990Tri & 2nd choice Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.6/1 ) – 4 ( 3.5/1 ) – 2 ( 25/1 ) - ($56.00) – $248.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 3.5 25.0 BET PRF
$7 $9 $52
$29 $23 $4 $56 $48 86%
$104 $104 $104 Quinella - 4 for 6 Early & 6 for 6 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-2 W/ 4-3-12-9........ Results: 4-9-14-8 (3rd choice Early & Live )
Dutch – 1 ( 6.3/1 ) – 2 ( 10/1 ) – 4 ( 4.8/1 ) - $77.00– $325.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 6.3 10.0 BET PRF
$12 $15 $22
$22 $17 $12 $51 $77 150%
$128 $128 $128 Quinella - 5 for 7 Early & 7 for 7 Live

R#9 - 5-1 W/ 3-6-13-11-10........Results: 10-1-13-8 (Last choice Early-$40 Quin/ $418 Tri & Same Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 5.8/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 3 ( 19/1 ) - ($45.00) – $280.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.8 7.3 19.0 BET PRF
$14 $17 $40
$21 $17 $7 $45 $98 217%
$143 $141 $140 Quinella - 5 for 8 Early & 7 for 8 Live

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nitro if you are betting less than 2-1 I'm killing you in the first place but more importantly if you miscalculate by 5% or better we are nailing you to the cross for Sunday worship.

So proceed cautiously Oriental Boy! :cool:

[Nitro]

Nitro if you are betting less than 2-1 I'm killing you in the first place but more importantly if you miscalculate by 5% or better we are nailing you to the cross for Sunday worship.

So proceed cautiously Oriental Boy! :cool:Heaven Forbid! I've got enough Crosses to bear around here! LOL

I can't be held accountable for any miscalculations at 5 in the morning, but right now it looks like I'm within + or -1%. So we'll see what happens.

I'll be in church tomorrow with a smile on my face when the tithing is collected. ;)

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-2 W/ 11-3-12-8........Results: 7-11-5-2 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 8.8/1 ) – 2 ( 6/1 ) – 11 ( 1.9/1 ) - ($34.00) – $246.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 6.0 8.8 BET PRF
$6 $14 $20
$20 $8 $6 $34 $23 70%
$57 $57 $57 Quinella - 5 for 9 Early & 7 for 9 Live

[CincyHorseplayer]

Heaven Forbid! I've got enough Crosses to bear around here! LOL

I can't be held accountable for any miscalculations at 5 in the morning, but right now it looks like I'm within + or -1%. So we'll see what happens.

I'll be in church tomorrow with a smile on my face when the tithing is collected. ;)

Tear it apart brother! I'm rollin dice on the ladies of Tinder so we shall see! LOL!

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in ALL but 1 race on the card. Hitting 5 out of 9 races (56%) produced a Net Profit of $246 after betting $563 or a 44% Net Profit margin. The Live final selections turned out to be even more rewarding with hit rate of 78%, and producing even more of a Net profit. The exotics were decent too.

When played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).

[Nitro]

With regard to this Summary, I'll reiterate in case anyone missed my previous comment in response to the disparities between the HK and U.S. odds when Dutching and their results.
Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY!

So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested.

Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.

[formula_2002]

Nitro, nice going.
Your results are very interesting.
I'll review your results as I would my own.

[ROK]

Formula,

This should be interesting. Unless I am missing a payoff, it looks like a flat bet loss with and without the race that was not included, but a huge return by dutching(?)...hmmm. The shape looks weird too and a bit funky. Most of his wins came early which is normally disastrous when dutching. Maybe you will catch something that I missed as I only eyeballed them throughout the day. Didn't have time to work on them. Have fun!

Nitro,

How would you counter the argument that by using the final odds in your analysis you are also inflating the ROI because you can't get those odds when actually betting at 5 minutes to post? That's got to make a big difference for many reasons. For you to prove that it makes no difference you would have to post your bet amounts at 5 minutes to post and then compare that to the results when using the final odds. (Instead of, dare I say it...posting those amounts 2 hours after the race has run :-) Sorry Nitro but it's true and that still has to be considered a form of redboarding)



Have to run, later.

[formula_2002]

Nitro, nice going.
Your results are very interesting.
I'll review your results as I would my own.
HERE IS HOW I WOULD REVIEW THE RESULTS FOR ALL 10 RACES IF THEY WERE MINE. ( SINCE I USED FINAL ODDS, I WOULD NOT ALLOW MYSELF TO ELIMINATE THE RACE WHERE THE EXPECTED RETURN WAS ONLY 48% PROFIT)
ACTUAL WINS/EXPECTED WIN = 1.24, I WOULD HAVE WON 24% MORE RACES THAN EXPECTED
60, $1 FLAT BETS RETURNED $ 23.60, 21% LOSS.EXPECTED LOSS WOULD BE THE 17.5% TRACK TAKE OUT
TOTAL BET SIZE FOR ALL 10 RACES = $687.00, RETURNING $750.20 FOR A 9% PROFIT.
I WOULLD BE MINDFULL THAT THE $298.20 RETURN IN THE 5TH RACE WAS MORE THAN TWO TIMES THE RETURN OF ANY OTHER RACE.
SINCE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH RACES TO DO AN INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS, I WOULD NOTE THAT I HAD WON WITH THE FAVORITE IN 3 OF 5 RACES. THE FAVORITE WON 5 OF 10 RACES WITHOUT ANY HANDICAPPING.
IN THE FUTURE IF I WANT TO PLAY IN THE REAL WORLD, I MUST KEEP TRACK OF MY ACTUAL BET SIZE AND THE FINAL TOTE BOARD ODDS

I WOULD BE PLEASED WITH MY RESULTS AND LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT 500 RACES

[Nitro]

Nitro,
How would you counter the argument that by using the final odds in your analysis you are also inflating the ROI because you can't get those odds when actually betting at 5 minutes to post? That's got to make a big difference for many reasons. For you to prove that it makes no difference you would have to post your bet amounts at 5 minutes to post and then compare that to the results when using the final odds. (Instead of, dare I say it...posting those amounts 2 hours after the race has run :-) Sorry Nitro but it's true and that still has to be considered a form of redboarding) NO ROK, Sorry but I really do feel for you. And for you to carry on like this and even propose such a pathetic “argument” makes you look even more foolish than some of you previous comments. In reality there is No validity to your argument.

I say this because if you even bothered to closely follow HK racing (particularly the tote board activities) at all you would recognize an immediate and abysmal flaw in your premise. There are typically MILLIONS of dollars in the HK Win pool alone in each and every race at already 15 minutes to post. (The only possible comparison to the betting on racing here in the states would be at events like the BC races). Otherwise, any tote pools representing the everyday betting activities at tracks in No. America PALE by comparison.

So what does this mean? It signifies that the HK pools are much more stable, particularly as the betting cycle closes-in on post time. It would take some extremely large last-minute bets to cause the odds fluctuations you’re suggesting. Of course, there are some minor odds and Quinella pool changes, but they work BOTH ways: As the odds (and Will-pays) drop on one entry, they obviously rise on others.

If you’re trying to suggest that these odds are dropping (from when I’m betting at 3 to 5 mins to post) on JUST the 3 entries I’ve chosen to Dutch is as ridiculous as your entire premise of “inflating the ROI”.

I’ve choosen to use the final (U.S.) odds when posting the Dutching results to represent the reality of the actual returns no matter what the odds may have been a few minutes earlier. This is done to remove any possible doubts about how the Dutching process is ACTUALLY performing. To even suggest that this is some form of “red-boarding” is absolutely ridiculous and YOU know it!

Your other comment:The shape looks weird too and a bit funky. Most of his wins came early which is normally disastrous when dutching.Demonstrates how little you understand about the entire concept of Duching (and really betting in general).
When you have a known historical profile of your personal O.A. betting accomplishments for typical race cards, it’s not uncommon to take advantage of that when playing on a regular basis. WHY?
Because it’s just as significant to the O.A. Profit margin to Win a bet as it is in avoiding a potentially Losing bet. I’m not going to constantly rehash this common sense philosophy, but if you’re really interested, my previous comments are posted:
Post #52 & #60
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133995&page=4&pp=15
Post #63
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133995&page=5&pp=15

It never ceases to amaze me how some people can put forth cynical commentary without consideration or acknowledgement of everything that might be involved in any particular topic. But typically that’s the ploy which is used in an attempt to bolster credibility for those type of superficial comments.

[ROK]

You sound terrified...and you should be. Because you know where I'm heading next.

Let me ask you a very simple question: From now on, when posting your plays for Hong Kong, which odds display are you going to use: HK or USA?

Because: If you choose HK, everyone will know you're a major fraud. If you choose USA...then I want an apology or a "thank you"....

As you well know...I tried to give you a way out...a way to "save face" as it were. I knew what you were doing. What I didn't know was why. Were you making an innocent mistake? Were you just bad at simple math? Or, were you a fraud?

But now I know: You REALLY ARE bad at math...AND a major fraud... ;-)

Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!

P.S...if the odds never change at Hong Kong...then what's the point of your "Live Bets"? Damn, will you ever tell the truth???

[formula_2002]

PER NITRO
I say this because if you even bothered to closely follow HK racing (particularly the tote board activities) at all you would recognize an immediate and abysmal flaw in your premise. There are typically MILLIONS of dollars in the HK Win pool alone in each and every race at already 15 minutes to post. (The only possible comparison to the betting on racing here in the states would be at events like the BC races). Otherwise, any tote pools representing the everyday betting activities at tracks in No. America PALE by comparison.

Nitro, I note your selections were posted at 11 pm
To the best of my knowledge I down loaded the 1st race hk exacta and win tote board data at about 11:30 PM
I compared my down load win data and compared it to the final data.

the % odds for your 1 horse did not change
the 4 horse % odds ratio differential was 13%, 5% net
the 7 horse % odds ratio differential was 19%, 3% net
that's enough difference for me to want a clear understanding of the impact to my results.

see the attached

[AltonKelsey]

I've watched the HK pools long enough to know that massive odds changes can and DO OCCUR at the final flash, often too late for anyone to adjust their bets, if they are dutching.

And no, if you dutch a 9-1 shot and it drops to 6-1, the 'adjustment' to your other dutched horses does not compensate.

Quinellas also move quite violently in many of the races. So betting 5 minutes to post is not viable as a long term practice.

The statement by Nitro that the large pool size prevents large odds changes is in error. The late bettors are also LARGE.

[formula_2002]

.3Nitro, I just ran the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds through your dutch and found no difference in the outcome. WHY?
because the low price horse won and the bet size on the low price horse is determined by the hi odds horse and the high odds horse was the same as the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds.

I use the proportional odds dutch bet and the results between your dutch and mine are exactly the same, in this case 112% without rounding

[AltonKelsey]

Eyeballing a few races, I don't see the supposed error in calculating the odds that was discussed.

Was that fixed , or did it never happen?

[AltonKelsey]

.....Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!




There is nothing magical about dutching, it's been around since the first bet was placed on a race. That's what bookmakers do.

Too much being made of the dutching, not enough discussion of how to get the winner in the top 3 picks. Dutching useless without lots of winners. Due bet or not, a healthy win % without big losing streaks is needed.

Notice how often the #1 is included. That's because this is the highweight and frequently a favorite or a back class horse. There, secrets out!

If this works at all , I suspect it's exclusive to HK Racing, and can't be ported to say, AQU or SA.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought Nitro was a dickhead at one point. Realized the guy can play. What I didn't realize was he had a fan club! I never see you guys anywhere on other threads. You are riding his nuts like a negative magic carpet! :D

[AltonKelsey]

I thought Nitro was a dickhead at one point. Realized the guy can play. What I didn't realize was he had a fan club! I never see you guys anywhere on other threads. You are riding his nuts like a negative magic carpet! :D

I post regularly on other threads , but only to preach the gospel of Nitro.

[Nitro]

You sound terrified...and you should be. Because you know where I'm heading next.

Let me ask you a very simple question: From now on, when posting your plays for Hong Kong, which odds display are you going to use: HK or USA?

Because: If you choose HK, everyone will know you're a major fraud. If you choose USA...then I want an apology or a "thank you"....

As you well know...I tried to give you a way out...a way to "save face" as it were. I knew what you were doing. What I didn't know was why. Were you making an innocent mistake? Were you just bad at simple math? Or, were you a fraud?

But now I know: You REALLY ARE bad at math...AND a major fraud... ;-)

Hey, If your so called "Dutching" methodology is any good...hell, I'll use it myself...but first ...two words...PROVE IT!!!

P.S...if the odds never change at Hong Kong...then what's the point of your "Live Bets"? Damn, will you ever tell the truth???Yeah buddy I’m shaking in my boots. But it sure was fun exposing your nonsensical thinking process! Your problem is you only want to half-read (and even 1/2 comprehend) the written word (unless of course it’s your own).

I only posted today’s results in U.S.$, to satisfy cynics like yourself and to prove a simple point that apparently went right over your head. How I post results in the future is none of your concern, and how it may impact your brain is none of mine. (I could care less) I will continue to exclusively use the HK tote board information for my analysis for obvious reasons. If others wish to take advantage of the information I’m sharing that’s entirely up to them.

Do you really believe that I would even consider your pathetic commentary as a means “to save face”? My results stand on their own face value and certainly don’t require any interpretation. If you sincerely believe that I haven’t demonstrated a successful Dutching approach, than you my friend are not operating with a full deck.

Who said anything about the odds never changing? (Again reading only what you want?!) Unfortunately, you don’t have a clue as to how a sophisticated tote analysis even works. If you think for a minute that it’s looking at just the Win pool (the odds) you’re GREATLY mistaken! Any changes to the Live selections are based on betting patterns that are generated by ALL the available pools combined. Even the static analysis doesn’t discriminate based on odds value.

I personally think its funny how you’ve intentionally ignored the ACTUAL hit frequency of the preliminary selections themselves. Because without any consistency the results of the Dutch betting side is really a moot point.

BTW, the only deceitful arguments presented here are your own, because apparently NO rationalization will ever satisfy a Loser’s skepticism. I will no longer take the time to offer any salient explanations to your irrelevant commentary.

[AltonKelsey]

"I personally think its funny how you’ve intentionally ignored the ACTUAL hit frequency of the preliminary selections themselves. Because without any consistency the results of the Dutch betting side is really a moot point."

Nitro stealing my commentary without attribution.

[Nitro]

I've watched the HK pools long enough to know that massive odds changes can and DO OCCUR at the final flash, often too late for anyone to adjust their bets, if they are dutching.

And no, if you dutch a 9-1 shot and it drops to 6-1, the 'adjustment' to your other dutched horses does not compensate.

Quinellas also move quite violently in many of the races. So betting 5 minutes to post is not viable as a long term practice.

The statement by Nitro that the large pool size prevents large odds changes is in error. The late bettors are also LARGE.Come on, Alton stop posting general and exaggerated statements like that. You know dam well that it doesn't happen in every race (or to every entry)! I'll only ask you to read these comments and see if you can appreciate my point of view.
So what does this mean? It signifies that the HK pools are much more stable, particularly as the betting cycle closes-in on post time. It would take some extremely large last-minute bets to cause the odds fluctuations you’re suggesting. Of course, there are some minor odds and Quinella pool changes, but they work BOTH ways: As the odds (and Will-pays) drop on one entry, they obviously rise on others.

If you’re trying to suggest that these odds are dropping (from when I’m betting at 3 to 5 mins to post) on JUST the 3 entries I’ve chosen to Dutch is as ridiculous as your entire premise of “inflating the ROI”.

[Nitro]

PER NITRO
Nitro, I note your selections were posted at 11 pm
To the best of my knowledge I down loaded the 1st race hk exacta and win tote board data at about 11:30 PM
I compared my down load win data and compared it to the final data.

the % odds for your 1 horse did not change
the 4 horse % odds ratio differential was 13%, 5% net
the 7 horse % odds ratio differential was 19%, 3% net
that's enough difference for me to want a clear understanding of the impact to my results.Nitro, I just ran the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds through your dutch and found no difference in the outcome. WHY?
because the low price horse won and the bet size on the low price horse is determined by the hi odds horse and the high odds horse was the same as the 11:30 pm odds and the final odds.

I use the proportional odds dutch bet and the results between your dutch and mine are exactly the same, in this case 112% without rounding I’m not sure what you’re viewing, but there were definitely odds changes in the 1st Race between 11:30PM and Post time (~12:00AM)
If I’m not mistaken, I think the concern was what the odds were at 11:55PM (When I placed my bets). There were also minor changes.
Now if there were significant changes and I claimed the Results of my Live betting which might have produced better Dutching results, than those revealed with the final odds, what would you and other skeptics be insinuating? You know exactly what I’m getting at.

So rather then create an atmosphere of uncertainly, using the final (US) odds today should satisfy anyone’s curiosity as to how well the selection process and Dutch betting performed in spite of how well I did personally. BTW just for the record my bet sizes vary dramatically from race to race and are usually much larger than those shown in the base Dutch calculations.

Race 1 11:30 11:55 Post
Horse No. Horse Name Weight Trainer Jockey Draw Odds Odds Odds
1 BORN DRAGON 133 C Fownes Teetan 12 14 15 15
2 RUGBY DIAMOND 133 W Y So Rawiller 5 7.6 7.2 7
3 POWER DRAGON 132 C H Yip Schofield 1 8.1 9 9.8
4 SLEDGE HAMMER 130 D Cruz Moreira 9 2.8 3.1 3.2
5 GIDDY GIDDY 129 J Size Prebble 8 12 8 7
6 NO LAUGHING MATTER 126 C S Shum Purton 6 16 18 19
7 FLYING CAPTAIN 124 C W Chang deSousa 7 7.6 9.5 9.7
8 ATOMIC BLAST 121 A T Millard Chiong 4 24 18 17
9 ORIENTAL FANTASIA 120 Y S Tsui Callan 2 8.4 8.4 8.2
10 SOCCER BRAVE 120 D E Ferraris Whyte 3 41 40 38
11 STARRY STARLIES 117 P O'Sullivan Mo 10 13 13 12
12 PARENTAL SPIRIT 113 T K Ng Lai 11 81 75 73

Race 7
THE BOCHK WEALTH MANAGEMENT JOCKEY CLUB SPRINT, 20/11/2016, 16:40, Group Two, Turf, "B+2" Course, 1200m, Good
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 7 4 6
BET SIZE 0.75 0.13 0.12
BET SUM 0.75 0.88 1.00
And speaking about questions: I don’t quite understand this:
How you can post a 3-entry Dutch calculation at 1:03 AM for the only race you hit (Race #7) when race didn’t go off until 3:08 AM. I mean other than the early line how valid could your calculation even be?

The 3 entries you used were #7, #4 & #6.
The early HK odds were 5.6/1 (4.6/1 US), 5.8/1 (4.8/1 US), & 8.7/1 (7.7/1 US) respectively.
The final HK odds were 3.6/1 (2.6/1 US), 4.5/1 (3.5/1 US), & 7.8/1 (6.8/1 US) respectively.

To be honest, I have no idea what your proportional odds calculations even represent in terms of real money.
Since I'm assuming your "BET SIZE" is based on the "early" odds line, maybe you could show how the two are related in your calculation.

[formula_2002]

nitro, that was my point, there were changes to odds between 11:30 Pm and post time, and those changes can often affect your dutch results, i'll post the two dutch methods later today.

[ROK]

Nitro,

I will say it again. You post your bet amounts 2 hrs after the race has run!!! Why do you do that??? I know why.

It was you who calculated your ROI by using the incorrect odds that inflated your ROI substantially. Not me. I'm not the one who can't comprehend. You're a fraud...and an epic one at that. You got away with it because few people here play Hong Kong and it's very late when you post.

I don't post. I don't like arguing. I felt I had a responsibility to say something when smart standup guys (like Formula) were under the false impression that you wouldn't do something AS INSANE as counting 1-1 shots as 2-1 shots!!!! Who would do that? An idiot? A fraud? I had no idea that you were both. It's still hard to believe. I tried to tip-toe into the fray when everyone's intuition told them that you were that you were full of crap. I just suggested that maybe you made an unintentional error. But you went into one of your long winded, egotistical, condescending (and boring as hell) diatribes. And here we are.

You keep mentioning your 50% winners on 3 horses...or is it 49%, or 47% or is it now 45%...well, now that you're forced to play by the rules and count 1-1 shots as 1-1 shots and not 2-1 shots, you'll be eliminating them from your dutch method and your win% is going to drop even further. But who really cares?

As you well know, I posted numerous times that your SELECTION method was a good one. It's your accounting that sucks. (and ethics)... I even theorized that you might have a positive ROI on your three picks. But then you went on a 4 day run of terrible play and your ROI plunged so now I'm not so sure you have a positive ROI after all.

But I will say it one more time: Your method looks good. The only problem though is it can't be YOUR method. I seriously doubt that you designed anything this good. You're not up to that level. So please answer this question for me. Is this your design? Or were you just hired to sell it? Because I would fire you :-)

goodnight.

[formula_2002]

here are the two dutch calculators.
inputting the USA dollar odds ,low, mid and hi, automatically updates the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator
note that the % profit in each calculator is the same.

the total bet size in the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator is always 1.
It's handy, because in say 76 races I know I have bet $76.

I have also indicated some bells and whistles. such as the min return $1 payout which is based on the % of pool wager.
etc.

[Nitro]

here are the two dutch calculators.
inputting the USA dollar odds ,low, mid and hi, automatically updates the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator
note that the % profit in each calculator is the same.

the total bet size in the NORMALIZED % OF POOL calculator is always 1.
It's handy, because in say 76 races I know I have bet $76.

I have also indicated some bells and whistles. such as the min return $1 payout which is based on the % of pool wager.
etc.And here are my 2 Dutch calculations:

Race #1 – Dutch calculations 5 mins before and after Post time.

At 5 mins to Post.

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 8.5 14.0 BET PRF 11:55 PM
$6 $19 $30
$30 $10 $6 $46 $47 102%
$93 $93 $93 Final Odds

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 8.7 14.0 BET PRF POST TIME
$6 $19 $30
$30 $10 $6 $46 $50 107%
$96 $96 $96 WOW! There’s certainly a lot to be concerned about there. It actually shows a Deflated profit of $3, because by Post time the odds on 2 of the entries went UP and increased the Profit % margin as well.
Which in essence means I made an additional $3 from when the bet was made. :jump:

Oh, and BTW in my haste to get my O.A. Summary posted, I inadvertently included the bet on the race that was Passed (Race #3). So, by deducting that $57 from the total amount bet of $563, the revised Total amount bet should read $506. With a $246 Net Profit the actual Profit % should be 49% (not 44%).

[formula_2002]

And here are my 2 Dutch calculations:

Race #1 – Dutch calculations 5 mins before and after Post time.

At 5 mins to Post.

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 8.5 14.0 BET PRF 11:55 PM
$6 $19 $30
$30 $10 $6 $46 $47 102%
$93 $93 $93 Final Odds

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 8.7 14.0 BET PRF POST TIME
$6 $19 $30
$30 $10 $6 $46 $50 107%
$96 $96 $96 WOW! There’s certainly a lot to be concerned about there. It actually shows a Deflated profit of $3, because by Post time the odds on 2 of the entries went UP and increased the Profit % margin as well.
Which in essence means I made an additional $3 from when the bet was made. :jump:

Oh, and BTW in my haste to get my O.A. Summary posted, I inadvertently included the bet on the race that was Passed (Race #3). So, by deducting that $57 from the total amount bet of $563, the revised Total amount bet should read $506. With a $246 Net Profit the actual Profit % should be 49% (not 44%).

ok. Would I be correct in saying that you use the USA win pool odds in your dutch calculator and make a live bet based on the calculator's bet size at that time?
If so we have come a long way here!! :)

[Nitro]

ok. Would I be correct in saying that you use the USA win pool odds in your dutch calculator and make a live bet based on the calculator's bet size at that time?
If so we have come a long way here!! :)I’m afraid not. As I’ve said previously, everything I do from the analysis to the betting is based on the HK tote board. I really like the idea of having decimal odd equivalents. Sure, I will at times short change myself in the return amounts, but I guess until I can correct the calculator I’ll have to live with it. It really hasn’t been much of an issue because my Live hit frequency has been so much better. When I’m playing in the wee hours of the morning I really don’t like the idea of doing manual odds conversions because even bigger errors can occur when transposing numbers. You have to keep in mind that during the typical 25-30 min betting cycles I’m not just viewing the odds on 3 entries. I wish it were that easy.
I'm really not very concerned with how anyone interprets the numbers I present here only because I know for a fact that when everything is said and done there's a decent long term profit available.

[AltonKelsey]

Astounding how much lip service is being paid to the simplest nonsense about which odds to use (when both odds boards are exactly the same except for adding ONE point to the actual odds).

Not a word on what the method of selection is.

Useless?

[formula_2002]

ok. do you down load the quinella and win pool tote boards into your program or do you work that also manually.?

At this time I copy the HK boards into excel then the excel macros take it from there.

for USA races I wrote a programs that signs into twinspires and downloads the specified track into excel. I load that file into another which does most of the remaining work.

Some time ago I was even able to place the bet within the program.

But no need for that at this time.. I'm not betting :cool:

[Nitro]

Astounding how much lip service is being paid to the simplest nonsense about which odds to use (when both odds boards are exactly the same except for adding ONE point to the actual odds).

Not a word on what the method of selection is. Useless?Yes Alton, that’s the REAL crux of the matter isn’t it! Without a decent selection process this entire discussion is a waste of time. I’m not a software guru by any stretch of the imagination, but even if I was I would never jeopardize my agreement and long-time friendship with the one person who opened my eyes to a whole new and exciting way of playing this game.

Unfortunately, I can't provide you with any background information about the tote analysis I use. I’m not the developer, just an avid user. The foundation of this analysis is based on the proprietary formulas used to assimilate and solve the questions related to the money movement during typical betting cycles. I do know that the visual results illustrate Betting Patterns that vary from track to track and pool size to pool size. I also know that with the larger tracks the betting intervals used by the tote analysis are 15, 8, and 5 mins to post. The smaller tracks are 10 or 12, 7 and 4 mins to post.

At each of these betting intervals the actual analysis provides a PAR value for the combined betting from all of the available pools on all the entries. At the same time a value is established for each entry. Then it just becomes a matter of comparing the total PAR value with each Entry value at each of the Betting intervals.

When viewing all of this information together, the betting patterns in most cases become very obvious because there's a definite relationship between the PAR value and each Entry value. That relationship and whether or not it changes positively or negatively during the betting cycle becomes the primary focus of each race. From there I’m able to determine at least 2 Key entries along with 2, 3 or in the case of HK 4 others of betting interest. I’ve been using it for quite a while and it was worth every bit of my investment. From what I’ve recently been told from my mentor the Tote analyses programs are no longer for sale.ok. do you down load the quinella and win pool tote boards into your program or do you work that also manually.?
At this time I copy the HK boards into excel then the excel macros take it from there.
for USA races I wrote a programs that signs into twinspires and downloads the specified track into excel. I load that file into another which does most of the remaining work.The entire Live tote analysis for HK is completely automated. How it gathers all the Win, Place and Quinella pool information from the HKJC Web is beyond my understanding. I’m only viewing the output in terms of the Betting patterns in real-time after the program digests all that information. I’m not really concerned with how it works, but only that it does work, and works well.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Clearly you're not wagering what you post. You would've caught the descrepencies after the 1st hit.

[AltonKelsey]

Clearly you're not wagering what you post. You would've caught the descrepencies after the 1st hit.

Could be the money is rolling in so fast, he didn't notice.

[AltonKelsey]

fwiw, and I've said this before.

I'm one of the few people , and certainly one of the few on this board, who actually has a clue about how the tote works and the relationships of the pools to each other.

Picking out the 'live ones' the day before is nearly impossible. Might be some peculiar thing going on in HK, I haven't researched it .

But try that here in the USA without the closing prices and you'll be in the poorhouse. And even with that information, its a non trivial exercise.

I won't say it can't be done, but if anyone had figured out that Holy Grail, they would have kept it to themselves or sold it for millions.

[Winger]

Astounding how much lip service is being paid to the simplest nonsense about which odds to use (when both odds boards are exactly the same except for adding ONE point to the actual odds).

Not a word on what the method of selection is.

Useless?

Alton,

I've replied to Nitro because I am very interested in his work. I brought up the odds difference, because his dutching calculator was not written to work with HK odds. It inflates his profit numbers. The fix is actually pretty simple, he just needs to delete the "+2" from the equations in each of the cells on his second line. I do believe that his system works and produces a profit.

[AltonKelsey]

How much credibility shall we give to someone taking credit for a $6 payoff when it's $4 ?

Someone claims to have cracked to code and can predict winners a day in advance, but can't catch an egregious mistake like that within a few days?

I know it's the Internet, but even that pales as an excuse .

And what system is it that works? He's revealed no system at all, just posted picks.

[Nitro]

How much credibility shall we give to someone taking credit for a $6 payoff when it's $4 ?

Someone claims to have cracked to code and can predict winners a day in advance, but can't catch an egregious mistake like that within a few days?

I know it's the Internet, but even that pales as an excuse .

And what system is it that works? He's revealed no system at all, just posted picks.I know its cyberspace and people like yourself love to exaggerate and prop yourself up as some sort of authority on things as a means to gain credibility. However, I also believe that most fair-minded people who read your skepticism can distinguish between that and reality, and easily rationalize that your comments are as valid as a 3-dollar bill. The funny thing is you don’t offer anything of substance, and share nothing but unwarranted criticism.

Forget about the dollars and cents. When you can post (and share) a pre-race 3-entry Dutch scheme that produces winners 45% of the time over 182 straight races and creates any form of profitability maybe then you can convince someone of your astute horse playing abilities.

Apparently (intentionally or otherwise) you missed it! Those weren’t BTW “egregious” errors. They were intentional from day-1 because the HK tote board was my primary source of information. I certainly wouldn’t want to rely on the alleged “real-time” tote info from the local ADW’s operating half-way around the world! Besides why should I change my personal preferences to accommodate cynics who can’t even comprehend the bottom line to begin with?

I had shown and claimed that over that same 182 race / 20-day period that when using the HK odds I managed a healthy 30% Profit margin. Of course those like you fail miserably at seeing the big picture. You attempt to downplay any accomplishment without considering how any changes and variations in odds can impact the Dutching calculations. So for the fun of it, and to perhaps satisfy the skeptics, I used the U.S. odds as a base line for the Dutch calculations for THIS one day.
And guess what? It didn't take very for my original premise to be realized.
"So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested."

The Profit margin was in fact a bit “higher”. But I’ll let the pessimist’s be the judge of just how much higher 49% actually is. Maybe they can also tell you what 49% means in terms of ROI?

[formula_2002]

Nitro 30% profit?
You are a legend in you own mind.

[Nitro]

Nitro 30% profit?
You are a legend in you own mind.

Really Formula? Compliments will get you no where!

Is that how a non-bettor portrays success? Maybe that's why you have tough time dealing with my comments.
Why not try thinking about that 20-Day HK Dutching demonstration and that Profit margin % from the perspective of the bettors in HK.

In spite of some obvious negativity at times, what I’ve really enjoyed is being able to share the selections that made it happen in ample time for anyone interested in using them. There’s nothing like sharing positive experiences.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Is that how a non-bettor portrays success? Maybe that's why you have tough time dealing with my comments.

:D :D :D

[AltonKelsey]

He keeps referring to the HK payoffs and the USA payoffs as if they were different.

:D:D:D:D:D

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Pretty solid indictment

Nitro,

I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.

Wagered Returned Net Profit Margin
Day 01 $376.90 $196.00 $(180.90) -48%
Day 02 $783.72 $710.00 $(73.72) -9%
Day 03 $634.85 $701.00 $66.15 10%
Day 04 $614.56 $617.00 $2.44 0%
Day 05 $407.53 $453.00 $45.47 11%
Day 06 $611.24 $612.00 $0.76 0%
Day 07 $315.93 $344.00 $28.07 9%
Day 08 $750.16 $778.00 $27.84 4%
Day 09 $394.28 $323.00 $(71.28) -18%
Day 10 $893.53 $695.00 $(198.53) -22%
Total $5,782.70 $5,429.00 $(353.70) -6%



I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.

[formula_2002]

thanks for saving me the trouble.

at least he beat the 17 1/2 take out!!
But that could be due to one or two big returns.

do you have a flat return?

[Alwaysonpoint36]

thanks for saving me the trouble.

at least he beat the 17 1/2 take out!!
But that could be due to one or two big returns.

do you have a flat return?

Beat the takeout? Looks like just beat to me :sleeping:

[AltonKelsey]

And just think , I was all ready to offer him $25,000 USD not HKD for the exclusive rights to the method.

Now I'll have to rip up the check.

[rsetup]

DING DONG, finally?

[formula_2002]

Beat the takeout? Looks like just beat to me :sleeping:

sorry I miss wrote. his picks returned a loss less than the 17 1/2 vig

[Nitro]

Nitro,
I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.
Wagered Returned Net Profit Margin
Day 01 $376.90 $196.00 $(180.90) -48% I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.
Hi Winger
You might have tried to fix the Dutch calculator for US returns by incorporating US$ odds versus HK$ odds, but unfortunately you’ve completely failed to observe one of the basic guide lines for even making any Dutch play worthwhile. I’ve posted this same line item on EVERY Summary page.
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50%

You've apparently completely ignored the fact that when the combined odds (no matter where they’re coming from) on the 3 entries to be Dutched are lowered, the O.A. Profit margin % is also significantly reduced.

So in actuality your so-called “validation sheet” is nothing more than a list of numbers without any actual validation showing the Dutch calculations themselves.
For the fun of it I thought it might be interesting to see just how invalid it might be.

I realize this may burst our group’s little bubble, but I’m sure none of them bothered to take the time to check out your calculations. Yet they’ll sure enough jump on any superficial bandwagon thinking that they’ve uncovered some dramatic impropriety. :D :D :D

Dutching Calculations for DAY 1 – 9/21/16 using US$ odds.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9…………Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.4/1 ) – 1 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($37.00) – ($37.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 6.8 7.4 BET PRF
$10 $16 $17
$17 $10 $10 $37 $44 119%
$81 $81 $81
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12 ………..Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 2.5/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 2.7 4.1 BET PRF
$7 $7 $10
$10 $10 $7 $27 $9 33%
$36 $36 $36
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2 …………Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 0.8/1 ) – 4 ( 6.8/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 5.7 6.8 BET PRF
$4 $13 $16
$16 $4 $4 $23 $5 20%
$28 $28 $28
R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10 ……….Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 11.3/1 ) – 9 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 42/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($79.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 11.3 42.0 BET PRF
$5 $25 $86
$33 $7 $2 $42 $44 104%
$86 $86 $86
R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9…………..Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 5 ( 3.8/1 ) - $29.00 – ($50.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 3.8 5.9 BET PRF
$10 $10 $14
$14 $14 $10 $37 $29 78%
$66 $66 $66
R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9 ………...Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 12 ( 3.8/1 ) - $17.00 – ($33.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.8 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $10 $12
$12 $10 $8 $30 $17 58%
$47 $47 $47
R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4 ………….Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.7/1 ) – 2 ( 2.1/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) - $0.00 – ($33.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 2.1 13.0 BET PRF
$5 $6 $28
$28 $24 $5 $58 $18 31%
$76 $76 $76
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9………..Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 2.2/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) – 12 ( 3.1/1 ) – $0.00 – ($47.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $8 $26
$13 $10 $3 $26 $13 50%
$39 $40 $39

The original Dutching calculations using the HK odds from 9/21/16 are on this link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133557&page=2&pp=15

SUMMARY

HK RESULT US RESULT
PROF% ACTION HK$ PROF% ACTION US$
R1 155 PLAY ($43) 119 PLAY ($37)
R2 67 PLAY $22 33 PASS $0
R3 66 PLAY $20 20 PASS $0
R4 193 PLAY ($30) 104 PLAY ($42)
R5 112 PLAY $48 78 PLAY $29
R6 92 PLAY $33 58 PLAY $17
R7 72 PLAY $47 31 PASS $0
R8 94 PLAY ($31) 50 PASS $0
TOTALS 5 OF 8 $66 2 OF 4 ($33)
BETTING $310 BETTING $146
P$L% 21% P$L% -23%

As you can see the actual loss of only 23% is less than 1/2 of what’s been erroneously suggested on this particular day. Since this so-called “validation” represents the worst loss of the 10 days listed, I plan on checking the other race days, because I suspect to find similar disparities.

So while the peanut gallery is having their jollies, they unwittingly compromised themselves by making more foolish statements. But that’s fine! I always enjoy a good laugh myself. In fact I find it especially amusing that it’s been conveniently forgotten that on the day of this thread (using US odds) the Profit margin was up 49%. I guess everyone is doing so well that it must be minuscule by comparison. Now that's a laugh! :lol:

[Winger]

Hi Winger
You might have tried to fix the Dutch calculator for US returns by incorporating US$ odds versus HK$ odds, but unfortunately you’ve completely failed to observe one of the basic guide lines for even making any Dutch play worthwhile. I’ve posted this same line item on EVERY Summary page.
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50%

You've apparently completely ignored the fact that when the combined odds (no matter where they’re coming from) on the 3 entries to be Dutched are lowered, the O.A. Profit margin % is also significantly reduced.

So in actuality your so-called “validation sheet” is nothing more than a list of numbers without any actual validation showing the Dutch calculations themselves.
For the fun of it I thought it might be interesting to see just how invalid it might be.

I realize this may burst our group’s little bubble, but I’m sure none of them bothered to take the time to check out your calculations. Yet they’ll sure enough jump on any superficial bandwagon thinking that they’ve uncovered some dramatic impropriety. :D :D :D

Dutching Calculations for DAY 1 – 9/21/16 using US$ odds.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9…………Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.4/1 ) – 1 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($37.00) – ($37.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 6.8 7.4 BET PRF
$10 $16 $17
$17 $10 $10 $37 $44 119%
$81 $81 $81
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12 ………..Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 2.5/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 2.7 4.1 BET PRF
$7 $7 $10
$10 $10 $7 $27 $9 33%
$36 $36 $36
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2 …………Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 0.8/1 ) – 4 ( 6.8/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 5.7 6.8 BET PRF
$4 $13 $16
$16 $4 $4 $23 $5 20%
$28 $28 $28
R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10 ……….Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 11.3/1 ) – 9 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 42/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($79.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 11.3 42.0 BET PRF
$5 $25 $86
$33 $7 $2 $42 $44 104%
$86 $86 $86
R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9…………..Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 5 ( 3.8/1 ) - $29.00 – ($50.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 3.8 5.9 BET PRF
$10 $10 $14
$14 $14 $10 $37 $29 78%
$66 $66 $66
R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9 ………...Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 12 ( 3.8/1 ) - $17.00 – ($33.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.8 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $10 $12
$12 $10 $8 $30 $17 58%
$47 $47 $47
R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4 ………….Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.7/1 ) – 2 ( 2.1/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) - $0.00 – ($33.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 2.1 13.0 BET PRF
$5 $6 $28
$28 $24 $5 $58 $18 31%
$76 $76 $76
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9………..Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 2.2/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) – 12 ( 3.1/1 ) – $0.00 – ($47.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $8 $26
$13 $10 $3 $26 $13 50%
$39 $40 $39

The original Dutching calculations using the HK odds from 9/21/16 are on this link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133557&page=2&pp=15

SUMMARY

HK RESULT US RESULT
PROF% ACTION HK$ PROF% ACTION US$
R1 155 PLAY ($43) 119 PLAY ($37)
R2 67 PLAY $22 33 PASS $0
R3 66 PLAY $20 20 PASS $0
R4 193 PLAY ($30) 104 PLAY ($42)
R5 112 PLAY $48 78 PLAY $29
R6 92 PLAY $33 58 PLAY $17
R7 72 PLAY $47 31 PASS $0
R8 94 PLAY ($31) 50 PASS $0
TOTALS 5 OF 8 $66 2 OF 4 ($33)
BETTING $310 BETTING $146
P$L% 21% P$L% -23%

As you can see the actual loss of only 23% is less than 1/2 of what’s been erroneously suggested on this particular day. Since this so-called “validation” represents the worst loss of the 10 days listed, I plan on checking the other race days, because I suspect to find similar disparities.

So while the peanut gallery is having their jollies, they unwittingly compromised themselves by making more foolish statements. But that’s fine! I always enjoy a good laugh myself. In fact I find it especially amusing that it’s been conveniently forgotten that on the day of this thread (using US odds) the Profit margin was up 49%. I guess everyone is doing so well that it must be minuscule by comparison. Now that's a laugh! :lol:


Nitro,

This has been updated for only races with a profit margin >50%.

Wagered Returned Net Margin Plays Hits Rate
Day 01 $268.88 $56.00 $(212.88) -79% 5 1 20%
Day 02 $729.14 $639.00 $(90.14) -12% 8 3 38%
Day 03 $599.36 $701.00 $101.64 17% 7 3 43%
Day 04 $509.28 $556.00 $46.72 9% 7 4 57%
Day 05 $164.83 $263.00 $98.17 60% 3 2 67%
Day 06 $434.90 $508.00 $73.10 17% 7 4 57%
Day 07 $224.42 $313.00 $88.58 39% 4 3 75%
Day 08 $534.12 $555.00 $20.88 4% 7 5 71%
Day 09 $273.79 $227.00 $(46.79) -17% 5 1 20%
Day 10 $845.42 $634.00 $(211.42) -25% 9 3 33%
Total $4,584.13 $4,452.00 $(132.13) -3% 62 29 47%




Also, in your example above, you miscalculated your profit margin. The US Odds were 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, which equates to a 53% profit margin which is not a pass. So your actual profit margin for that day was -79%.

[Winger]

I don't think you realize that the HK Odds vs US Odds isn't Semantics. A $10 wager on a horse with 7/2 US Odds will pay $45 ($35 profit). A $10 wager on a horse with 3.5 HK Odds will pay $35 ($25 profit). In your calculations, you are saying that a $10 Wager on a horse with 3.5 HK Odds will pay $45, which simply isn't true. 3.5 HK Odds translates to 5/2 (2.5) US Odds. Hong Kong includes the return of your original bet in their odds, United States does not.

[AltonKelsey]

Are we still going on about this?

Either there's idiocy, fraud, insanity , or all three at work here.

I leave that up to the reader.