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Nitro
11-26-2016, 09:38 PM
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 11 races with 9 on the Turf and 2 on Awd.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:15 PM SAT. EST

TVG is offering live video for at least 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

Nitro
11-26-2016, 11:07 PM
I won’t be posting any live selections for Hong Kong this morning.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #7 & #11
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1400M (7F) Turf…..1-7 W/ 6-11-3-8 .......11:15 PM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 possibly moving up Live)

R#2 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......4-8 W/ 1-12-11-13 ….11:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 or #11 possibly moving up Live)

R#3 - 1000M (5F) Turf.......3-1 W/ 2-8-6-12.......12:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 possibly moving up Live)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf......2-8 W/ 4-9-3-6…...12:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 or #6 possibly moving up Live)

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Awd …...3-6 W/ 7-1-9-5......1:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #9 possibly moving up Live)

R#6 - 1600M (8F) Turf.......4-3 W/ 2-1-5-8……..2:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #5 possibly moving up Live)

R#7 - 1600M (8F) Turf….....2-6 W/ 1-7-3-9-14.....2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 or #3 possibly moving up Live)

R#8 -1200M (6F) Awd.........1-4 W/ 11-6-5-3 ….....3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 possibly moving up Live)

R#9 - 1600M (8F) Turf.......2-3 W/ 4-5-7-11.......3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 with possibly moving up Live)

R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf......1-3 W/ 7-12-4-2..........4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 or 4 with possibly moving up Live)

R#11 - 1400M (7F) Turf......7-3 W/ 13-11-1-4........4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 with possibly moving up Live)

GL if you’re playing!

kevb
11-26-2016, 11:30 PM
Hello Nitro. GL

Nitro
11-26-2016, 11:31 PM
R#1 - 1-7 W/ 6-11-3-8...........Results: 2-13-8-4 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 5.8/1 ) – 7 ( 17/1 ) – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) - ($40.00) – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.8 7.1 16.4 BET PRF
$14 $16 $35
$18 $15 $7 $40 $82 206%
$122 $122 $122
0 for 1 Early & 0 for 1 Live

Nitro
11-26-2016, 11:33 PM
Hello Nitro. GL
Hi there Kev. Good luck to you also! :ThmbUp:

Nitro
11-26-2016, 11:58 PM
R#2 - 4-8 W/ 1-12-11-13.......Results: 12-4-8-11 (4th choice Out Early $54 Quin/$457 Tri & In Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 4.4/1 ) – 8 ( 2.9/1 ) – 1 ( 16/1 ) - ($34.00) – ($74.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 4.2 16.0 BET PRF
$8 $10 $34
$17 $13 $4 $34 $32 95%
$66 $68 $68
0 for 2 Early & 1 for 2 Live

Nitro
11-27-2016, 12:25 AM
R#3 - 3-1 W/ 2-8-6-12............. Results: 11-3-8-1 (Out Early - & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 2.9/1 ) – 1 ( 11/1 ) – 2 ( 8.4/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($116.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 8.4 11.0 BET PRF
$8 $19 $24
$24 $10 $8 $42 $52 124%
$94 $94 $94
0 for 3 Early & 1 for 3 Live

Nitro
11-27-2016, 12:55 AM
R#4 - 2-8 W/ 4-9-3-6.........Results: 4-1-6-9 (3rd choice Early & Top choice - Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 17/1 ) – 8 ( 5.2/1 ) – 4 ( 2.9/1 ) - $76.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.8 17.0 BET PRF
$8 $14 $36
$36 $21 $8 $64 $76 118%
$140 $140 $140
1 for 4 Early & 2 for 4 Live

Nitro
11-27-2016, 01:37 AM
The Japan Cup

R#11 - 8-16 W/ 1-3-9-14-4 @ 3 mins to post

Nitro
11-27-2016, 01:40 AM
R#5 - 3-6 W/ (7)-1-9-5......... Results: 5-11-3-6 - #7 Late Scr (5th choice Out Early & Passed Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 8.7/1 ) – 6 ( 4.2/1 ) – 1 ( 6.2/1 ) - ($44.00) – ($84.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 6.2 8.7 BET PRF
$10 $14 $19
$19 $14 $10 $44 $57 130%
$101 $101 $101
1 for 5 Early & 2 for 4 Live.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-27-2016, 02:34 AM
Every horse looks fit.

I'll stab and dutch the :6::13:

Nitro
11-27-2016, 03:00 AM
The Japan Cup

R#11 - 8-16 W/ 1-3-9-14-4 @ 3 mins to post
Results:

R #11 = 1-12-17-3 – Nothing in that one - Winner took lots of late action.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 03:03 AM
R#6 - 4-3 W/ 2-1-5-8......... Results: 4-6-5-1 (Top choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 2.1/1 ) – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 2 ( 5.8/1 ) - $60.00 – ($24.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 5.8 10.3 BET PRF
$6 $14 $23
$44 $20 $12 $76 $60 79%
$136 $136 $136
2 for 6 Early & 3 for 5 Live.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 03:05 AM
R#7 - 2-6 W/ 1-7-3-9-14…….Results: 12-10-1-7 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 8.5/1 ) – 6 ( 18/1 ) – 1 ( 5/1 ) - ($37.00) – ($61.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.0 8.5 18.0 BET PRF
$12 $19 $38
$19 $12 $6 $37 $77 208%
$114 $114 $114
2 for 7 Early & 3 for 6 Live.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 03:20 AM
R#8 - 1-4 W/ 11-6-5-3........ Results: 9-6-1-12 (Out Early & Live )
Dutch – 1 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 4.7/1 ) – 11 ( 16/1 ) - ($60.00) – ($121.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.7 12.0 16.0 BET PRF
$11 $26 $34
$34 $15 $11 $60 $133 221%
$194 $194 $194
2 for 8 Early & 3 for 7 Live.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 03:54 AM
R#9 - 2-3 W/ 4-5-7-11........Results: 4-2-11-9 (3rd choice Early-$41 Quin/$2,080 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 18/1 ) - $81.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 12.0 18.0 BET PRF
$7 $26 $38
$38 $11 $7 $56 $81 145%
$137 $137 $137
3 for 9 Early & 4 for 8 Live.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 04:29 AM
R#10 - 1-3 W/ 7-12-4-2........Results: 3-12-7-6 (2nd choice Early $22 Quin/$281 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 17/1 ) – 3 ( 11/1 ) – 7 ( 5.4/1 ) - $162.00 – $122.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.4 11.0 17.0 BET PRF
$13 $24 $36
$36 $19 $13 $68 $162 239%
$230 $230 $230
4 for 10 Early & 5 for 9 Live.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 05:09 AM
R#11 - 7-3 W/ 13-11-1-4.......Results: 3-11-13-7 (2nd choice Early $289 Quin/$2,278 Tri & All In Live)
Dutch – 7 ( 3.5/1 ) – 3 ( 8.4/1 ) – 13 ( 2.7/1 ) - $54.00 – $176.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 3.5 8.4 BET PRF
$7 $9 $19
$36 $29 $14 $79 $54 69%
$133 $131 $132 (Quartet - $5,116 US equivalent)

5 for 11 Early & 6 for 10 Live. :ThmbUp:

Nitro
11-27-2016, 05:21 AM
This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching the Top 3 Early selections in EVERY race on the card. Hitting 5 out of 11 races (45%) produced a Net Profit of $176 after betting $600 or a 29% Net Profit margin. The Live final selections turned out to be even more rewarding with hit rate of 60%, and producing much more of a net profit. The exotics made it ALL worthwhile. :ThmbUp:

No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).
It’s not just about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.

Nitro
11-27-2016, 05:23 AM
Today will conclude my 20 Day Dutch Win betting demonstration for the racing Hong Kong.

formula_2002
11-27-2016, 11:18 AM
This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching the Top 3 Early selections in EVERY race on the card. Hitting 5 out of 11 races (45%) produced a Net Profit of $176 after betting $600 or a 29% Net Profit margin. The Live final selections turned out to be even more rewarding with hit rate of 60%, and producing much more of a net profit. The exotics made it ALL worthwhile. :ThmbUp:

No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).
It’s not just about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.

Nitro I calculate your profit was not 29% but 8%.
regardless. nice going

CincyHorseplayer
11-27-2016, 12:13 PM
Today will conclude my 20 Day Dutch Win betting demonstration for the racing Hong Kong.


I use a similar approach with similar results on turf. Mainly because like HK the odds are inflated and make it possible. But when there is a bias in one of my rankings it can produce the same opportunities. It took me a few years to play in this manner but it's well worth it. Really like your exotics approach Nitro.

formula_2002
11-28-2016, 09:32 PM
R#4 - 2-8 W/ 4-9-3-6.........Results: 4-1-6-9 (3rd choice Early & Top choice - Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 17/1 ) – 8 ( 5.2/1 ) – 4 ( 2.9/1 ) - $76.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.8 17.0 BET PRF
$8 $14 $36
$36 $21 $8 $64 $76 118%
$140 $140 $140
1 for 4 Early & 2 for 4 Live

nitro, here is a link to a dutch play demonstrating a play like yours.

http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/dutching_calculator.asp

if you follow the instruction, you are required to use the dollar odds, not the dollar pay out

the attached indicates the use of dollar odds and dollar payout.
instead of 118% profit, the return is 75% profit when used correctly.

Nitro
11-29-2016, 03:46 PM
nitro, here is a link to a dutch play demonstrating a play like yours.

http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/dutching_calculator.asp

if you follow the instruction, you are required to use the dollar odds, not the dollar pay out

the attached indicates the use of dollar odds and dollar payout.
instead of 118% profit, the return is 75% profit when used correctly.
I’m not really sure what your problem is Formula, because I’m very familiar with all the details, operation, and bottom-line of Dutch Win betting. In fact, each and every time I’ve even suggested using a Dutch betting approach I’ve stated the following INSTRUSTIONS: I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) shown with the final HK odds.
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly AFTER inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

(The Objective is to receive the same $$ amount no matter which one wins.)
I’ve also responded to other inquiries regarding the Dutch calculator input/output:
I am still unclear about the the bottom rows of $100 $100 $100 and $96 $96 $96 in the examples. Is this a value you input, or is it a value generated by the app, extrapolated from the bet size you enter? Basically, do you enter the bet size, or do you enter another value that outputs the bet size? If the latter, what is the bet size derived from? The bottom row of normally identical numbers are the values generated by the Dutch calculator App. They simply show the equal returns based on the bets from the row above them which are also generated by this App. The only inputs for the Dutch calculator are the odds of the 3 chosen entries (from Low to High). The row beneath the odds are the $2 returns for those odds. The App’s betting baseline starts at the $2 level. However, if you want to increase or decrease the Total bet you can back into the into bet line and change the individual bets until the numbers on the bottom line are close to equalizing each other.
Initial baseline calculation:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$21 $16 $10 $47 $58 123%
$105 $105 $105 Reducing the betting line:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$12 $9 $6 $27 $33 122%
$55 $52 $53 Increasing the betting line:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$43 $33 $21 $97 $118 122%
$215 $215 $221 Notice that the Profit % margin stays nearly identical in each case.But no need to fret, because as I said earlier I won’t be posting my pre-race selections from the static tote analysis for HK any longer. I’m very pleased with those O.A. results over the last 20 race days and even more than satisfied with the live tote outcomes for both Dutching and the Exotics.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2081140#post2081140

Aside from all this, I believe that your own calculations are in serious fault, because they attempt to incorporate the Take-out % in the Win Pool. This is (as I’ve’ mentioned before) a complete fallacy. That’s simply because the “take-out” is already removed from the Win pool (or Will Pays) BEFORE the odds are displayed each minute during an entire betting cycle. I don’t know of any betting outlet that offers payment with track odds that later removes the “take-out” % from the winning return on any bet.

formula_2002
11-29-2016, 06:58 PM
Nitro If you can make a winning bet of $36 on a horse who's $1 return is $2.90 ( dollar odds of $1.9-1) and make more than $104.40 on that bet...you are exceptional!

Alwaysonpoint36
11-29-2016, 07:37 PM
Nitro If you can make a winning bet of $36 on a horse who's $1 return is $2.90 ( dollar odds of $1.9-1) and make more than $104.40 on that bet...you are exceptional!



:D :lol: :lol: he is amazing

Nitro
11-29-2016, 10:15 PM
Nitro If you can make a winning bet of $36 on a horse who's $1 return is $2.90 ( dollar odds of $1.9-1) and make more than $104.40 on that bet...you are exceptional!

I think you and your fan club ought to learn some basic math: :bang:
HK odds = 2.9/1 x $2 = 5.80 + $2.00 bet = 7.80
7.80 x 18 ($2 bets = $36) = $140.40

formula_2002
11-29-2016, 11:05 PM
I think you and your fan club ought to learn some basic math: :bang:
HK odds = 2.9/1 x $2 = 5.80 + $2.00 bet = 7.80
7.80 x 18 ($2 bets = $36) = $140.40
Nitro
you need to sum the book% for the race
most races in USA you would sum 1/(odds+1) and get about 1.22

in HK the chart does not indicate dollar odds, it's $1 payout
therefor you sum 1/payout to get the book % which is about 1.22 which indicates about a 17.5 take out. the takeout for the hk races is 17.5%

I'm not making this stuff. google book percentage.
on second thought. read a good handicapping book.

ROK
11-29-2016, 11:41 PM
Dear Nitro,

This is what I've been waiting for.

TwinSpires reported a payoff of $5.8 = 1.9 odds. So, 36*1.9+36=104.4.

NOT $140!!!

Sorry, but all of your results are WRONG!!! :-)

RedMeansGo
11-30-2016, 06:58 AM
Formula and ROK are correct.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Results/English/Local/20161127/ST/4

Dividends are per HK$10 bet.

They are using the decimal odds system, popular in Euro markets, as opposed to fractional odds which is normally used in the US. See here for an explanation, and scroll down to see decimal odds of 2.9 equating to 15/8, or roughly 1.9/1.

https://betting.betfair.com/decimal-odds-converter-fraction-odds-betfair-explained.html

One of these has to be true:
1) You are not actually wagering on these races.
2) You are quoting payoffs here that do not correspond with your bankroll.
3) You are wagering with a book that is paying out at the prices you quote, in which I case I BEG YOU to please share that info with me via PM.

Alwaysonpoint36
11-30-2016, 09:08 AM
Dear Nitro,

This is what I've been waiting for.

TwinSpires reported a payoff of $5.8 = 1.9 odds. So, 36*1.9+36=104.4.

NOT $140!!!

Sorry, but all of your results are WRONG!!! :-)

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Alwaysonpoint36
11-30-2016, 09:18 AM
One of these has to be true:
1) You are not actually wagering on these races.
2) You are quoting payoffs here that do not correspond with your bankroll.
3) You are wagering with a book that is paying out at the prices you quote, in which I case I BEG YOU to please share that info with me via PM.

He's not wagering, and that's ok I guess but he definitely makes it seem as if he does which is aggravating as hell, especially with the condescending tone when anyone questions the BS.

STOP FAKIN THE FUNK!!

big shoutout to Rok formula and redmeansgo for debunking this. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

formula_2002
11-30-2016, 12:13 PM
regardless if you dutch or bet straight, in order to show a profit your edge must exceed the track take out.
the attached excel file will indicate your approximate profit or loss when you input, in this case the final track odds, track takeout and edge (red cells)

you will notice if you increase your edge, it has the effect of increasing your bet size, without that actually happening.
comment will be appreciated

AltonKelsey
11-30-2016, 05:48 PM
This seasons demonstration is concluded.

I anxiously await next seasons.

Thinking maybe we can bet in those cheap HK$, but get paid in real American $, to further enhance ROI

Nitro
11-30-2016, 10:22 PM
You know this back-and-forth bantering about something that’s been going on for the last few weeks on various HK threads is actually getting pretty redundant and tiresome, at least from my perspective. Apparently, the few that are commenting on these Dutching results are pointing out the obvious differences between the U.S odds and payoffs versus those in H K (which BTW I have used exclusively for the purposes of simply demonstrating 2 things:
A very credible O.A. hit frequency using a totally unique static tote analysis, and the potential Profit margins that a Dutching scheme can produce.

(For those who are not involved in this little controversy, but interested in knowing more about it; you’ll have noticed that each time it comes up, it’s ALWAYS related to the Dutch betting results when a short priced favorite Wins!)
Let me offer a reasonable explanation:
First of all let’s agree on one important factor:
Whatever the bet payoff is in HK dollars the U.S. equivalent is always 5 times less.
In other words, note the following:
1) If the odds on a favorite is 2.9/1 in HK the return is 29.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 29/5 or $5.80.
(The normal return on 2.9/1 odds is $7.80. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00 or 25%.)
...............Or
2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
...............Or
3) If a Quinella pays 250.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 250/5 or $50.00.
...............Or
4) If a Triple pays 10,000.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 10,000/5 or $2000.00.

These payout differences HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE “TAKE-OUT” % IN ANY BETTING POOL.

Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

This is very close to the 11.5/1 odds O.A. average that I’ve witnessed over the previous 182 races I’ve recently demonstrated with the Dutch betting scheme. So, if we use this odds average, it follows that the avg. winning return in HK would be 115.00 HK$ with a 1/5 return of $23.00 U.S.
(The normal return on 11.5/1 odds is $25.00. So again, there’s a disparity of $2.00 but only 8%.)

Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY! So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested. (I know my personal Live action Dutch betting certainly is!) But if that’s not good enough for you, then I’ll just add that my rebate program easily covers these disparities.

So if there's any genius that would like to waste their time disputing my explanation, please realize that I will not waste my time responding! Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.

CincyHorseplayer
11-30-2016, 10:34 PM
Funny we used to go at it over philosophical differences! But usually someone who has an ego is my kinda someone and I will check out what they are doing even if radically different. I see your results and abilities. It's there to be seen. And in brief selection threads I think the feeling is mutual and mutuel! But what you just said toward the end of your post was exactly what I thought.

"..do people think this guy just stays up all night smokin weed, eatin Cheetos, and posting fun picks on Hong Kong races?". LOL! Right :D

Nitro
11-30-2016, 10:53 PM
He's not wagering, and that's ok I guess but he definitely makes it seem as if he does which is aggravating as hell, especially with the condescending tone when anyone questions the BS.

STOP FAKIN THE FUNK!!

big shoutout to Rok formula and redmeansgo for debunking this. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
And I’d also like to thank Always On a Dull Point for his trolling efforts and obvious inability to present a valid “Point” of his own. Instead he conveniently cowers from any legitimate position and follows inane and shallow comments of others.

Is that “condescending” enough for you? I hope so!

formula_2002
11-30-2016, 10:59 PM
nitro, the best of luck to you. I've said all I can..]

Nitro
11-30-2016, 10:59 PM
Funny we used to go at it over philosophical differences! But usually someone who has an ego is my kinda someone and I will check out what they are doing even if radically different. I see your results and abilities. It's there to be seen. And in brief selection threads I think the feeling is mutual and mutuel! But what you just said toward the end of your post was exactly what I thought.

"..do people think this guy just stays up all night smokin weed, eatin Cheetos, and posting fun picks on Hong Kong races?". LOL! Right :D
I'm glad to hear that there's still some sanity around here!

BTW thanks for a really good laugh! :ThmbUp:
Sometimes after posting I feel like taking a couple of hits! LOL
But the munchies will get you every time.

RedMeansGo
12-01-2016, 08:46 AM
You know this back-and-forth bantering about something that’s been going on for the last few weeks on various HK threads is actually getting pretty redundant and tiresome, at least from my perspective. Apparently, the few that are commenting on these Dutching results are pointing out the obvious differences between the U.S odds and payoffs versus those in H K (which BTW I have used exclusively for the purposes of simply demonstrating 2 things:
A very credible O.A. hit frequency using a totally unique static tote analysis, and the potential Profit margins that a Dutching scheme can produce.

(For those who are not involved in this little controversy, but interested in knowing more about it; you’ll have noticed that each time it comes up, it’s ALWAYS related to the Dutch betting results when a short priced favorite Wins!)
Let me offer a reasonable explanation:
First of all let’s agree on one important factor:
Whatever the bet payoff is in HK dollars the U.S. equivalent is always 5 times less.
In other words, note the following:
1) If the odds on a favorite is 2.9/1 in HK the return is 29.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 29/5 or $5.80.
(The normal return on 2.9/1 odds is $7.80. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00 or 25%.)
...............Or
2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
...............Or
3) If a Quinella pays 250.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 250/5 or $50.00.
...............Or
4) If a Triple pays 10,000.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 10,000/5 or $2000.00.

These payout differences HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE “TAKE-OUT” % IN ANY BETTING POOL.

Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

This is very close to the 11.5/1 odds O.A. average that I’ve witnessed over the previous 182 races I’ve recently demonstrated with the Dutch betting scheme. So, if we use this odds average, it follows that the avg. winning return in HK would be 115.00 HK$ with a 1/5 return of $23.00 U.S.
(The normal return on 11.5/1 odds is $25.00. So again, there’s a disparity of $2.00 but only 8%.)

Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY! So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested. (I know my personal Live action Dutch betting certainly is!) But if that’s not good enough for you, then I’ll just add that my rebate program easily covers these disparities.

So if there's any genius that would like to waste their time disputing my explanation, please realize that I will not waste my time responding! Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.

We pointed out that the profits you are reporting are overstated, and you confirmed it. Thank you.

Alwaysonpoint36
12-01-2016, 09:52 AM
And I’d also like to thank Always On a Dull Point for his trolling efforts and obvious inability to present a valid “Point” of his own. Instead he conveniently cowers from any legitimate position and follows inane and shallow comments of others.

Is that “condescending” enough for you? I hope so!

You're full of shit from day one, that's my position. You're a joke, and deep down I was hoping I was missing something and maybe you were as good at your craft as you claim.

But you're not.

You're a walking redboard artist with half the shame. Miss me with all of that son. :sleeping:

AltonKelsey
12-01-2016, 01:14 PM
I was skeptical on principal, didn't fathom someone would have the nerve to overstate the odds on an 1-1 shot as 2-1.

If that's what was done, it's fraudulent in the extreme.

Nitro
12-01-2016, 01:24 PM
We pointed out that the profits you are reporting are overstated, and you confirmed it. Thank you.No, actually the ONLY thing I’ve confirmed is that those like yourself have focused on a single marginal aspect (short-priced winners) of the entire Dutching scheme. The obvious shortsightedness completely ignored the impact of longer priced winners, and why any initial reduction/change in the odds value of the chosen 3-entries (without regard to BOTH winning and losing results) which would obviously impact the entire Profit picture. It’s certainly very convenient to reflect on a singularity that supports a desired consequence.

In the same respect, you’ve apparently ignored the last 2 paragraphs of my explanation (No doubt, for good reason!). It’s so easy to maintain a superficial position when you don’t consider all the information involved. It correlates to taking a statement out of context in order to broadcast a false or exaggerated narrative.

The bottom line is that I was openly sharing some worthwhile pre-race information over those 20 race days. So, if cynics interpret my explanation as “overstating profits”, I will counter by saying that in all likelihood they’re understated. It will certainly remain a moot point for those who ignore reality and common sense.

BTW, you’re welcome.

RedMeansGo
12-01-2016, 01:40 PM
R#4 - 2-8 W/ 4-9-3-6.........Results: 4-1-6-9 (3rd choice Early & Top choice - Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 17/1 ) – 8 ( 5.2/1 ) – 4 ( 2.9/1 ) - $76.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.8 17.0 BET PRF
$8 $14 $36
$36 $21 $8 $64 $76 118%
$140 $140 $140
1 for 4 Early & 2 for 4 Live

The post above overstates profits. Period.

Please direct me to a single post you've made, where the profits you state are less than what one would receive as a payout in the pools, as reported on the HKJC website.

You can write 10 more pages of nonsense, even 100 pages, nothing changes the fact that your reported winnings are higher that what one would receive in the pools.

If you weren't reporting inaccurate winnings, you wouldn't have to embarrass yourself by offering the excuse that "your rebate makes up for it anyways." However, it did give me a good laugh, so I do thank you for that.

Nitro
12-01-2016, 02:26 PM
The post above overstates profits. Period.

Please direct me to a single post you've made, where the profits you state are less than what one would receive as a payout in the pools, as reported on the HKJC website.

You can write 10 more pages of nonsense, even 100 pages, nothing changes the fact that your reported winnings are higher that what one would receive in the pools.

If you weren't reporting inaccurate winnings, you wouldn't have to embarrass yourself by offering the excuse that "your rebate makes up for it anyways." However, it did give me a good laugh, so I do thank you for that.
WOW! Are you really that dense? You’re once again portraying the short-priced winner with the HK odds from Dutch calculation as a reflection of a U.S. dollar payout! It’s apples and oranges buddy! There’s an obvious reason why I only use (and have continuously used) the HK tote board information to perform a tote analysis and later Dutch calculation for the racing in HK, but I’m afraid any further explanation would really blow your mind.
Here’s a hint: When I’m playing Del Mar, use the tote information from the Del Mar race track.

I'm glad you're getting a kick out of all this, because believe me you're not the only one who's thoroughly amused! ;)

RedMeansGo
12-01-2016, 02:30 PM
As expected, you can't direct me to a post.

I'm done here, wasted enough time.

Winger
12-02-2016, 04:00 PM
You know this back-and-forth bantering about something that’s been going on for the last few weeks on various HK threads is actually getting pretty redundant and tiresome, at least from my perspective. Apparently, the few that are commenting on these Dutching results are pointing out the obvious differences between the U.S odds and payoffs versus those in H K (which BTW I have used exclusively for the purposes of simply demonstrating 2 things:
A very credible O.A. hit frequency using a totally unique static tote analysis, and the potential Profit margins that a Dutching scheme can produce.

(For those who are not involved in this little controversy, but interested in knowing more about it; you’ll have noticed that each time it comes up, it’s ALWAYS related to the Dutch betting results when a short priced favorite Wins!)
Let me offer a reasonable explanation:
First of all let’s agree on one important factor:
Whatever the bet payoff is in HK dollars the U.S. equivalent is always 5 times less.
In other words, note the following:
1) If the odds on a favorite is 2.9/1 in HK the return is 29.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 29/5 or $5.80.
(The normal return on 2.9/1 odds is $7.80. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00 or 25%.)
...............Or
2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
...............Or
3) If a Quinella pays 250.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 250/5 or $50.00.
...............Or
4) If a Triple pays 10,000.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 10,000/5 or $2000.00.

These payout differences HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE “TAKE-OUT” % IN ANY BETTING POOL.

Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

This is very close to the 11.5/1 odds O.A. average that I’ve witnessed over the previous 182 races I’ve recently demonstrated with the Dutch betting scheme. So, if we use this odds average, it follows that the avg. winning return in HK would be 115.00 HK$ with a 1/5 return of $23.00 U.S.
(The normal return on 11.5/1 odds is $25.00. So again, there’s a disparity of $2.00 but only 8%.)

Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY! So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested. (I know my personal Live action Dutch betting certainly is!) But if that’s not good enough for you, then I’ll just add that my rebate program easily covers these disparities.

So if there's any genius that would like to waste their time disputing my explanation, please realize that I will not waste my time responding! Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.



Nitro,

I don't think you understand what people are telling you.
You said:
"2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)"

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how this works. If a typical long shot is 17/1 HK, the return is 170.00 as you said. However, that includes the original $10 wager. So the profit on that bet is $160.00. In a United States race, those odds would display at 16/1. A $10 bet would still return $170, so there is no disparity.


Let's look at an actual example of yours. This is race #9. The race was won by the :4: with odds of 18/1. According to your dutching calculator, you bet $7 on the :4: and $56 total across your 3 entries. That bet would have returned $7 x 18/1 = $126. The HKJC results show that a Win bet on the :4: returned $185. If you normalize that for a $7 bet, you get $185 x 0.7 = $129.5. So there is a $3.50 disparity simply because the odds displayed aren't that precise. You claimed thata $7 win on this horse would pay $137, but that was not true.

So let's calculate your profit using the $129.5 number.
$129.50 (return) - $56 (original bet) = $73.50. So your profit for that race was $73.50, yet you claimed you made $81 in profit, which was 10% more than you actually made. This is what people are trying to explain to you, your numbers are completely off. It's not because of short-priced horses. It's because you are calculating the returns on your bets entirely wrong.

We can look at the next race and see you made the exact same error again. You claimed that a $19 win bet on :3: paid $230. If you look at the HKJC results, you will see that :3: paid $113.50. If you normalize that for a $19 win bet, that means it paid $113.50 * 1.9 = $215.65. So therefore your actual profit was $147.65, not $162. So again, you listed your profit at 10% higher than it actually was. You have this made flaw in every single profit calculation you have made in your 20 threads. It's because your dutching calculator has a wrong equation in it. Your dutching calculator was built for the way US tracks report their odds, not the way HKJC reports its odds. In order for your calculator to be correct, you have to select 1 from the odds reported by the HKJC.

Nitro
12-03-2016, 01:18 AM
Hi Winger. Thanks for taking the time to offer another perspective to the Dutch treatment I’ve presented. As I’ve mentioned before, I ONLY use the HK odds for this purpose because I’m using the HK tote-board information in real time. When I presented the examples of “disparity” between HK$ & U.S.$, I used individual entry odds to show how it breaks down as a final payoff. It was also an attempt to show the varying disparity %’s between very low odds and much higher odds.

2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1Let's look at an actual example of yours. This is race #9. The race was won by the with odds of 18/1. According to your dutching calculator, you bet $7 on the and $56 total across your 3 entries. That bet would have returned $7 x 18/1 = $126. The HKJC results show that a Win bet on the returned $185. If you normalize that for a $7 bet, you get $185 x 0.7 = $129.5. So there is a $3.50 disparity simply because the odds displayed aren't that precise. You claimed thata $7 win on this horse would pay $137, but that was not true. BTW your math is a bit off, but there was a slight error: ($7) 3.5 x (18/1) $38 = $133.00 (Not $126)
HK returned $185 because the actual final HK odds were 18.5/1 not 18/1. (3.5 x 18.5 $39 = 136.50)
The HK payout was $185. & 1/5 = $37.00 U.S.
Actual U.S. Results:
Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race #9 3:35am
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 4 Happy Place $37.00 - $7.50
2 2 Prawn Baba - - $2.90
3 11 Club Life - - $7.60
4 9 Ruby Coast - - -
$2.00 QUINELLA 2-4 $41.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA 4-2-11 $2,080.60
R#9 - 2-3 W/ 4-5-7-11........Results: 4-2-11-9 (3rd choice Early-$41 Quin/$2,080 Tri & Live)
(Dutch Calculation w/HK Odds)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 18/1 ) - $81.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 12.0 18.0 BET PRF
$7 $26 $38
$38 $11 $7 $56 $81 145%
$137 $137 $137
($7.00) 3.5 x 38/1 = 133.00 / 5 = $26.60 US
The actual final HK odds were 18.5/1 not 18/1. (3.5 x 18.5 $39 = 136.50)

(Dutch Calculation w/U.S. Odds)
Dutch – 2 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 17.5/1 )

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 12.0 17.5 BET PRF
$5 $26 $37
$37 $7 $5 $50 $47 94%
$96 $96 $96 BTW I’m glad you chose Race #9 because it includes a short-priced entry in the Dutch calculation. As I mentioned, anytime that occurs there’s a greater disparity in the results. The very next race (#10) is another example of a HK race without a short-priced favorite selected. It demonstrates what I was trying to explain with this earlier statement: But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY!

Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race #10 4:10am
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 3 People's Knight $22.70 - $6.50
2 12 Beat The Clock - - $2.30
3 7 Beauty Kingdom - - $3.50
4 6 Winfield - - -
$2.00 QUINELLA 3-12 $21.70
$2.00 TRIFECTA 3-12-7 $281.40
R#10 - 1-3 W/ 7-12-4-2........Results: 3-12-7-6 (2nd choice Early $22 Quin/$281 Tri & Live)
(Dutch Calculation w/HK Odds)
Dutch – 1 ( 17/1 ) – 3 ( 11/1 ) – 7 ( 5.4/1 ) - $162.00 – $122.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.4 11.0 17.0 BET PRF
$13 $24 $36
$36 $19 $13 $68 $162 239%
$230 $230 $230
(Dutch Calculation w/U.S. Odds)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 11.4 16.0 BET PRF
$10 $25 $34
$45 $19 $14 $78 $156 200%
$234 $236 $238 Notice the O.A. Profit disparity between these 2 races:
Race #9 – 145% versus 95% = 50% & Amt. Bet difference 12% less
Race #10 – 239% versus 200% = 39% & Amt. Bet difference 14% more

So of course, right away anyone would say that’s a big drop in Profit. Sure when you look at it from one side it appears that way, but Profit (ROI) is a measurement Net Profit/Cost (Amt Bet).
When measuring an O.A. Profit margin between HK$ & US$ the disparities of both sides of the fraction have to be factored.

Aside from all of this (which may be immaterial to anyone not interested money management) I would only suggest the following:
If you’re O.A. hit frequency is 45%
And your average/race Profit margin is consistently higher than 45%
And you pass on all races on races with only a 50% profit margin
Guess what? You’re making money!

CincyHorseplayer
12-03-2016, 01:51 AM
Nitro this is why it's best to eliminate bet amounts and ROI. Your ability to pick winners and make smart bets is evident. Nothing good can come from any of the rest. You bet too little, you bet too much, you make too many plays, you can't win, you can't redboard etc etc. Or worse this nitpicking on top of all that! I love to talk about races, bets, and methods. From that one can infer what another player is capable of. Good enough!

Nitro
12-03-2016, 02:21 AM
Nitro this is why it's best to eliminate bet amounts and ROI. Your ability to pick winners and make smart bets is evident. Nothing good can come from any of the rest. You bet too little, you bet too much, you make too many plays, you can't win, you can't redboard etc etc. Or worse this nitpicking on top of all that! I love to talk about races, bets, and methods. From that one can infer what another player is capable of. Good enough!
Sounds REAL good to me!
But I suspect that those commenting about this have completely forgotten, or never realized, or even ignored the fact that this entire exercise was simply an open examination and appraisal of a Dutch win betting scheme. It was based on some pre-race selections generated by unique type of tote analysis.

Did you happen to notice that no one commented on the 45% hit rate with average fields of 12 entries in every one of those 182 races ?
.

CincyHorseplayer
12-03-2016, 02:56 AM
Sounds REAL good to me!
But I suspect that those commenting about this have completely forgotten, or never realized, or even ignored the fact that this entire exercise was simply an open examination and appraisal of a Dutch win betting scheme. It was based on some pre-race selections generated by unique type of tote analysis.

Did you happen to notice that no one commented on the 45% hit rate with average fields of 12 entries in every one of those 182 races ?
.

Yes I did. It's such a trivial achievement it's easy to overlook! :D

I started experimenting with dutch apps a few years ago. I'm doing it on turf stateside. It's a staple of my game. You are profiling from an odds perspective and I am doing it by some of my own ratings. If the odds are there it works. I'll PM you tomorrow. There are dry spells when things are playing evenly but when there is a ratings bias the numbers with dutch bets can be disgusting and it can last for 6-8 weeks sometimes! Anyway gotta get up in a few hours. Good luck this morning!