HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 11/23

[Nitro]

Good morning everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with decent fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED. EST

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’m not going to be posting any live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning.
Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #2 - #6
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 -1000M (5F) T…........6-2 W/ 1-4-10-5 .........6:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 or #10 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#2 - 1800M (9F) T.......... 4-2 W/ 3-5-8-1 …....6:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) T..........1-2 W/ 8-3-4-5........7:20 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 or #4 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) T..........1-2 W/ 10-4-7-8….....7:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#5 -1650M (8.25F) T…....5-2 W/ 3-9-10-1 ........8:20 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 or #1 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#6 -1650M (8.25F) T….… 2-10 W/ 9-4-3-6 …...8:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: any of the other 3 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#7 -1650M (8.25F) T......10-4 W/ 8-9-5-6..........9:20 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 or #5 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#8 -1200M (6F) T……..'...1-4 W/ 3-11-10-5 ..….9:55 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 and possibly #5 moving up w/Live action)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) shown with the final HK odds.
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 6-2 W/ 1-4-10-5..........Results: 5-10-4-1 (6th choice Early & $2334 Tri Bx Live)
Dutch – 6 ( 9.8/1 ) – 2 ( 4.2/1 ) – 1 ( 3.5/1 ) - ($49.00) – ($49.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 4.2 9.8 BET PRF
$9 $10 $22
$22 $19 $9 $49 $48 97%
$97 $97 $97
0 for 1 Early & 0 for 1 Live

[Nitro]

R#2 - 4-2 W/ 3-5-8-1........... Results: 5-4-11-3 (4th choice & $62 Quin Early & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 9.4/1 ) – 2 ( 4.5/1 ) – 3 ( 2.5/1 ) - ($41.00) – ($90.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 4.5 9.4 BET PRF
$7 $11 $21
$21 $13 $7 $41 $32 77%
$73 $73 $73
0 for 2 Early & 1 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1-2 W/ 8-3-4-5............. Results: 11-5-4-3 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 5.4/1 ) – 2 ( 15/1 ) – 8 ( 8.3/1 ) - ($67.00) – ($157.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.4 8.3 15.0 BET PRF
$13 $19 $32
$32 $22 $13 $67 $138 206%
$205 $205 $205
0 for 3 Early & 1 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-2 W/ 10-4-7-8......... Results: 7-2-8-11 (5th choice Early $33 Quin/$813 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 9/1 ) – 2 ( 2.9/1 ) – 10 ( 4/1 ) - ($43.00) – ($200.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 4.0 9.0 BET PRF
$8 $10 $20
$20 $16 $8 $43 $35 80%
$78 $78 $78
0 for 4 Early & 1 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#5 - 5-2 W/ 3-9-10-1............. Results: 5-10-3-9 (Top choice Early $25 Quin/$185 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 1.9/1 ) – 2 ( 7.1/1 ) – 3 ( 9.3/1 ) - $53.00 – ($147.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.1 9.3 BET PRF
$6 $16 $21
$42 $15 $12 $69 $53 77%
$122 $122 $124
1 for 5 Early & 2 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-10 W/ 9-4-3-6......... Results: 4-2-9-6 (4th choice Early $56 Quin/ $926 Tri & In Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 4.1/1 ) – 10 ( 10/1 ) – 9 ( 8.7/1 ) - ($44.00) – ($191.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.1 8.7 10.0 BET PRF
$10 $19 $22
$22 $12 $10 $44 $68 156%
$112 $112 $112
1 for 6 Early & 3 for 6 Live

[Nitro]

R#7 - 10-4 W/ 8-9-5-6……….Results: 11-3-10-8 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 10 ( 3/1 ) – 4 ( 9.3/1 ) – 8 ( 14/1 ) - ($50.00) – ($241.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 9.3 14.0 BET PRF
$8 $21 $30
$30 $12 $8 $50 $70 142%
$120 $120 $120
1 for 7 Early & 3 for 7 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-4 W/ 3-11-10-5............ Results: 6-10-12-1 (Out Early & In w/$43 Quin Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 15/1 ) – 4 ( 17/1 ) – 3 ( 4.5/1 ) - ($59.00) – ($300.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.5 15.0 17.0 BET PRF
$11 $32 $36
$36 $12 $11 $59 $139 233%
$198 $198 $198
1 for 8 Early & 4 for 8 Live

[Nitro]

This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. Hitting only 1 out of 8 races (13%) produced a Net loss of $300 after betting $422 or a 71% Net Loss margin. The Live final selections turned out to be much more rewarding with hit rate of 50%, and producing a decent Net Profit. Fortunately, there were also quite few decent exotics that made it worthwhile.

There were quite a few big priced upsets today.

[formula_2002]

R#5 - 5-2 W/ 3-9-10-1............. Results: 5-10-3-9 (Top choice Early $25 Quin/$185 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 1.9/1 ) – 2 ( 7.1/1 ) – 3 ( 9.3/1 ) - $53.00 – ($147.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.1 9.3 BET PRF
$6 $16 $21
$42 $15 $12 $69 $53 77%
$122 $122 $124
1 for 5 Early & 2 for 5 Live

Nitro, fyi. you did not profit by 77%, the profit was 29%
the "odds" you are using are $1 payout. you need to deduct $1 to obtain the dollar odds required by your dutching chart.
YOU THEN ADD THE $1 BACK TO THE ODDS, AND MULIPLY BY THE BET SIZE WHICH YIELDS THE RETURN ON THE BET. IN THIS CASE $35.35, TOTAL BET WAS $27.00
I HOPE THIS CLRAIFIES WHAT I HAVE RECENTLY POSTED.

[Nitro]

Nitro, fyi. you did not profit by 77%, the profit was 29%
the "odds" you are using are $1 payout. you need to deduct $1 to obtain the dollar odds required by your dutching chart.
YOU THEN ADD THE $1 BACK TO THE ODDS, AND MULIPLY BY THE BET SIZE WHICH YIELDS THE RETURN ON THE BET. IN THIS CASE $35.35, TOTAL BET WAS $27.00
I HOPE THIS CLRAIFIES WHAT I HAVE RECENTLY POSTED.
And I guess I have to ONCE AGAIN CLARIFY what the posted Dutching calculator results represent.
First of all it’s based on the ODDS from the HK tote board.
The returns are based on a base wager of $2.00
If I use it for 1 race I have to use it for ALL the races!

If your Total Bet is $69 and your Total Return is $122, you’ve made a $53 Profit.
(53) / (69) = 0.768 which is 77%

This is a Dutch calculation is based on the final odds in the U.S. – 4/5 – 6/1 – 8/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 6.0 8.0 BET PRF
$4 $14 $18
$70 $18 $14 $102 $24 24%
$126 $126 $126 So based on this 24% projected Profit margin this race is not even playable based on my restriction of “no plays” below a 50% profit margin.

[formula_2002]

nitro, do you understand that the "odds" shown in the hk charts add $1 to the odds?
if the US odds =4/5 that is also the hk odds, 4/5, however hk post the $1 payout which is odds +1

[ROK]

And this also means that the profit and margin being reported is incorrect.

[ROK]

I should have added ...in the larger analysis.

[RedMeansGo]

And this also means that the profit and margin being reported is incorrect.

Which, if true, prompts the question if the OP is actually wagering at all. Because surely he would not be posting inaccurate PnL figures contradicting his own bankroll.

[ROK]

You're right, that's a problem. Though, in fairness, he could just be betting his live picks while his early picks are just theoretical plays. That wouldn't explain the ROI difference that he should have noticed of course, (nor remove the ethical problems that arise when posting two possible scenarios) but it's still possible that he is betting and doing well with his live picks. Should his 'early picks', survive a re-analysis, they would have to be considered pretty good if they still show a profit after the odds re-adjustment.

The 'early pick' analysis could never be true no matter what anyway, simply because he's using the final odds to produce the bet size...but at 5 minutes to post or so, those odds would be different from the final odds. Such differences could be small or could be great. But the main problem is that using the final odds to produce the analysis will always make a program or method look better than it really is... IF... you're not actually using the final odds to make those bets.

However, if he were to go back and eliminate the races with odds-on horses, AND if those races actually lowered his ROI instead of increased it, then that would off-set some of the damage that the lowering of winning payoffs is going to have on his Hong Kong analysis.

[Winger]

R#5 - 5-2 W/ 3-9-10-1............. Results: 5-10-3-9 (Top choice Early $25 Quin/$185 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 1.9/1 ) – 2 ( 7.1/1 ) – 3 ( 9.3/1 ) - $53.00 – ($147.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 7.1 9.3 BET PRF
$6 $16 $21
$42 $15 $12 $69 $53 77%
$122 $122 $124
1 for 5 Early & 2 for 5 Live


Nitro,

Here is what formula is trying to explain to you. The odds provided by HKJC include the return of the original bet. Therefore, you will never see a horse that is less than 1/1, because you will always get your bet back+some.

In the race above, you said you bet $42 to win on the :5: and got $95 back. A $42 win bet on the :5: would have only returned $81.90, with a profit of $39.90. The dutching calculator should have actually looked like this:

0.9 6.1 8.3
$4 $14 $19
$19 $5 $4 $27 $8 29%
$35 $35 $35

The other option is to fix the equation in lines 4/10/16/22 of your calculator. For example, the cell A4 currently has "=A3*2+2" but in reality it should be "=A3*2"

[Winger]

Nitro,

Here is what formula is trying to explain to you. The odds provided by HKJC include the return of the original bet. Therefore, you will never see a horse that is less than 1/1, because you will always get your bet back+some.

In the race above, you said you bet $42 to win on the :5: and got $95 back. A $42 win bet on the :5: would have only returned $81.90, with a profit of $39.90. The dutching calculator should have actually looked like this:

0.9 6.1 8.3
$4 $14 $19
$19 $5 $4 $27 $8 29%
$35 $35 $35

The other option is to fix the equation in lines 4/10/16/22 of your calculator. For example, the cell A4 currently has "=A3*2+2" but in reality it should be "=A3*2"


Nitro,

I apologize. After doing some work, I believe that you are right. I think what is confusing formula, is that the payout listed on the HKJC website only includes the profit. It does not add in the return of the original bet.

[formula_2002]

the attached indicates my calculation for a hK book %.
In this case it totals 1.23. 1-(1/1.23)= a rough calculation of the track take
in this case 19%, the actual take is 17.5

If I used Nitro calculation the track take would be about 9%