When you know you are "THERE"

[EMD4ME]

Who here can honestly say, I don't need to ever work again, not because they hit the lotto or have a monster real estate net income BUT because they can honestly say they can make a living on horse racing?

For reasons that are vital, do not ask me any questions, this is for everyone's open discussion. I, for certain reasons, can only play a limited role, if this thread has any life. Apologies in advance.

At the very least, I'd like to know why yes vs. why no someone is/vs. isn't a position to retire from this glorious game.

[Robert Fischer]

not me.


I think it would be a matter of bankroll growth.
If your bankroll was growing (not from 1 huge score, but from many consistent profits), then it's pretty clear that you have a revenue stream. If that revenue stream starts to compete with the 'opportunity costs' of holding down your day job, then you are "THERE".

would be nice:ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

not me.


I think it would be a matter of bankroll growth.
If your bankroll was growing (not from 1 huge score, but from many consistent profits), then it's pretty clear that you have a revenue stream. If that revenue stream starts to compete with the 'opportunity costs' of holding down your day job, then you are "THERE".

would be nice:ThmbUp:

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

[2low]

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

Tax free until you get caught at least.

[EMD4ME]

Tax free until you get caught at least.


sVcn4lznUOs

[ReplayRandall]

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

Here's my starting comment to this dialog, "You NEVER know when you're going to win a bet". The only time you can truly say, "You're there", is when the IRS has you jacketed as a full-time gambler, paying taxes for at least 3 out of the last 5 years on net winnings.....Toughest way to make an easy buck.

[EMD4ME]

Here's my starting comment to this dialog, "You NEVER know when you're going to win a bet". The only time you can truly say, "You're there", is when the IRS has you jacketed as a full-time gambler, paying taxes for at least 3 out of the last 5 years on net winnings.....Toughest way to make an easy buck.

Absolutely right RR, you never 100% know, that you will win a bet.

As a sharpie, you DO KNOW, in your stomach, when you are making an AWESOME bet. It's not every day but you do KNOW.

I'll add, when you expect to win everytime (because you're doing so well-not because of some dellusional thought), WHEN you bet, you know you're right there.

When you lose and find it to be annoying or a rare occurrence, you are right there.

When you lose and KNOW exactly why you lost BUT have this awesome feeling of: I may have lost today but gained info to help me crush tomorrow, you are there.

I'll give an example:

Oct 23rd's 9th race. I had the 2nd n 3rd finishers to close a nice pick 4. I missed the gary gullo FTS winner. PICK 4 paid $26K plus.

I marked my 2 choices to play back as they were VERY good in defeat. I calmly walked out of the track on 10/23 as I knew that my rare mistake would come back to me 10 fold possibly.

I crushed the 2nd finisher next out.

More importantly, the 3rd finisher came back to run this past Sat. He paid a paltry even money to win.

Even more importantly, he keyed ( I singled only him ) in a sequence that I liked a lot. Played it for a buck. Pick 5 paid $6203.50 for .50. What also helped was knowing the 1st race favorite had galloped out to the right very meakly after his average last start. Combining those 2 opinions, was very lucrative.

Point is, when you lose and feel like you're setting up a win, IMHO, you know you're there.......

[thaskalos]

Absolutely right RR, you never 100% know, that you will win a bet.

As a sharpie, you DO KNOW, in your stomach, when you are making an AWESOME bet. It's not every day but you do KNOW.

I'll add, when you expect to win everytime (because you're doing so well-not because of some dellusional thought), WHEN you bet, you know you're right there.

When you lose and find it to be annoying or a rare occurrence, you are right there.

When you lose and KNOW exactly why you lost BUT have this awesome feeling of: I may have lost today but gained info to help me crush tomorrow, you are there.

I'll give an example:

Oct 23rd's 9th race. I had the 2nd n 3rd finishers to close a nice pick 4. I missed the gary gullo FTS winner. PICK 4 paid $26K plus.

I marked my 2 choices to play back as they were VERY good in defeat. I calmly walked out of the track on 10/23 as I knew that my rare mistake would come back to me 10 fold possibly.

I crushed the 2nd finisher next out.

More importantly, the 3rd finisher came back to run this past Sat. He paid a paltry even money to win.

Even more importantly, he keyed ( I singled only him ) in a sequence that I liked a lot. Played it for a buck. Pick 5 paid $6203.50 for .50. What also helped was knowing the 1st race favorite had galloped out to the right very meakly after his average last start. Combining those 2 opinions, was very lucrative.

Point is, when you lose and feel like you're setting up a win, IMHO, you know you're there.......

My experience is a little different than yours. When I bet, my expectation is NEVER that I will cash that particular wager...because I know that my possibility of losing a given bet stands at better than 70%. Tearing tickets has numbed me to such an extent that I am totally indifferent when it comes to losing in a particular race...or a particular day. Losing bets is the most "normal" thing in the world to me...and a losing race elicits no emotion from me whatsoever. A WIN, on the other hand, being the much rarer occurrence, WILL occasionally draw out a look of modest amusement from me.

As far as playing horses "professionally" is concerned...I would advise it only if the horseplayer has been blessed with a very understanding spouse.

[VigorsTheGrey]

My experience is a little different than yours. When I bet, my expectation is NEVER that I will cash that particular wager...because I know that my possibility of losing a given bet stands at better than 70%. Tearing tickets has numbed me to such an extent that I am totally indifferent when it comes to losing in a particular race...or a particular day. Losing bets is the most "normal" thing in the world to me...and a losing race elicits no emotion from me whatsoever. A WIN, on the other hand, being the much rarer occurrence, WILL occasionally draw out a look of modest amusement from me.

As far as playing horses "professionally" is concerned...I would advise it only if the horseplayer has been blessed with a very understanding spouse.
....that very understanding spouse also ought to be independently wealthy and not really bothered by you not being around much nor bothered by you not really having any other interests other than horse playing....I have yet to meet a women who met all these criteria...most women I know want a man to be part of their life....a real part.....being a pro at this takes 80 plus hours a week I would imagine....what woman would put up with that?

[2low]

sVcn4lznUOs

Honest question, not trying to be a jerk. I assume you are relying on the fact that rebates on purchases in general are non-taxable (getting a $2K rebate when buying a car, for instance)?

If so, I'll grant that rebates on gambling wagers are a gray area in that, to my knowledge, the IRS has never stated one way or the other whether gambling rebates are exempt under the law. However, I have a difficult time believing they would consider a rebate on a wager to be the same as a rebate on the purchase of a personal item. But, as I said, they haven't ruled as far as I know.

I am not eligible for rebates, so I don't care to do more research. But, now that I've thought about it, if I were eligible for rebates and made lots of money from them, I'd probably treat them as tax free and hold tax payment money in reserve until the statute of limitations passed on my return just in case.

By the way, I'd love a source if you have one and I'm completely wrong. I'm not opposed to being corrected, and it would add a lot to what could be a very fun thread IMO.

And now, to answer your question: I can't depend on horse racing for a living right now, and probably never will. I think gambling profitably as a side income is great. However, relying on gambling as the sole source of income would not be for me.

Having lived through the on-line poker fiasco of a few years ago, I don't trust that it can't all be taken away with the swipe of some jerk's pen. Three or ten years of professional horse handicapping isn't a very good resume stuffer.

Also, who's to say that my edge (if I had one) would survive? Age may make me dumber than I am already:lol: What then? I'll admit that I am jealous of people who can do it though...

[CincyHorseplayer]

When does knowing you are good and have a yearly schedule at tracks across the country to provide you with positive expectation plays become merely cowardice because you don't do it?

The negative rationalizations, " I have to pay off exorbitant debts etc etc". It seems as if I need to have the world around me this safe and tidy place, far away from debt and bills, and I guess reality to think it's right to make the leap. Other than doing so a few months here and there throughout the years and with decent to mediocre but not disastrous results I've never pushed on. There IMO has to be a substantial enough of a bankroll for betting and an emergency fund to stick it out for at least 6 months before I would try. What would you recommend?

I struggle with this question often. Mind you the first year I realized I could win playing casually, across the course of a calendar year was 2001. I have enough losing streaks where I'll lose say 40-60% of the money in play for 20-30 bets before it normalizes but I am able to be fairly consistent. I get waves of satisfaction and self confidence with alternating experiences of temporary helplessness to keep me humbled. When and under what circumstances is the time right? And when are you merely just succumbing to cowardice? I unfortunately do hit that wall. Most of it has to do with an underdeveloped ability to crush races or sequences than being a solid and individually able handicapper. I have made a lot of progress within the last 18 months though.

Anyway fire away...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Not much of a well rounded life IMO....you would have to travel to different tracks to be trackside always....I don't see how people make any money at simulcast locations....also very lonely unless you can team up with someone to share expenses, risk, and profit...even going to the track everyday gets old real fast unless maybe you are an owner/ trainer, I don't know maybe that gets old too....it's a lonely game...horseplayers are generally Oddfellows to chum around with...

[lamboguy]

when you do business with Citibank and you deposit $100,000 with they they pay you something like 1% interest on your money and give you thank you points every month that convert over to about another 1%. I was explained by Citibank that those points are non-taxable. other banks have similar programs. asked my accountant about this and he was in agreement with Citibank, however the points that Citibank gives you, they expense out and there is supposed to be a tax on the person or company that receives the benefit of this tax deduction.

considering that a rebate on horse race betting is the closest thing to Citibank rewards i would say that this is an untapped gray area that might be revisited at some later date. banks always get breaks on their taxes while regular people like us always get slammed,. that is just the way life is. i don't know how much longer we can classify ourselves the same way banks do. the good thing is that horse race rebates are such a small part of the economy and the IRS might have bigger fish to fry, it might take them a long time before they get to us.

[thaskalos]

Not much of a well rounded life IMO....you would have to travel to different tracks to be trackside always....I don't see how people make any money at simulcast locations....also very lonely unless you can team up with someone to share expenses, risk, and profit...even going to the track everyday gets old real fast unless maybe you are an owner/ trainer, I don't know maybe that gets old too....it's a lonely game...horseplayers are generally Oddfellows to chum around with...

I can't agree with what you say here. What percentage of the working population would you say gets up at sunrise...so they could spend the next 10+ hours of the day, first preparing for...and then working at a job that they dislike...for a boss who they think dislikes THEM? And then they keep doing this for the next 40 years or so. Is THIS much of a "well-rounded life"? Professional gambling is just like any other "job"...except that it affords you the freedom to do your work on your OWN terms...instead of forcing you to operate on someone ELSE'S schedule. Your "job" cannot supply you with the "life balance" that you seek...that's what your NON-WORKING life is for.

Yes...the professional gambler has to provide for his own "employment benefits"...but every day of his life is alive with new possibilities. He trades in the "security" of a regular paycheck...for the freedom and "aliveness" that he feels every day. I know...I know. You keep reading here about how "exhausting" professional gambling is...and how "tormented" the pro gambler is...because he doesn't receive any "public recognition".

Don't believe a word of it!

The professional gambler can't wait for the next day to come...and if he needs a "trophy"...he goes out and BUYS one. Not having to bow his head down to a boss, and making up his own schedule...makes up for whatever negative side-effects his "job" may cause. Is this lifestyle for EVERYONE? Of course not...nor SHOULD it be. But for some select individuals...it's the only life that they care to lead.

After all...we only go around once in this life.

[lamboguy]

as far as winning at this game is concerned, some very few people are exceptionally talented in not only picking winners but knowing how and when to bet their money. the tough part with this game is get a realistic return on your money. my guess is that anywhere between 1/2%-1% is very realistic after you get a top rebate. although i happen to know a couple of players that do win without a rebate, the game remains virtually impossible to win without one.

if you bet $1 million per year it is quite feasible to show a $10,000 profit for the calendar year. to get to that million is very tough. you can't bet 10 races for $100,000 each and handle the $1 million that way, you would be killing your odds. so one would have to devise a way to make many smaller bets that amount to the $million. not easy to do.

back when Nevada booked their own horse bets, i consistently won 7%-10% of what i could get down for. but the world has changed and there isn't a casino that books their own horse bets these days.

there are a few people that specialize in big pool betting that seem to get a slightly bigger return than what i consider to be a feasible return. the guys that i know of Moody and Gallo, have been attacking large carryover pools for many years now. they have 3 things going for them, they get the whole rebate that the house has to give, they are great handicappers, and they bet giant money into the pools. for example when Gulfstream had the jackpot pick six give away day, they spent $200,000 into the pool. they wound up with something like 100 winning tickets on it that paid $4000 for twenty cents. they out performed the parlay by a huge 10 times with that payoff.

[EMD4ME]

Honest question, not trying to be a jerk. I assume you are relying on the fact that rebates on purchases in general are non-taxable (getting a $2K rebate when buying a car, for instance)?

If so, I'll grant that rebates on gambling wagers are a gray area in that, to my knowledge, the IRS has never stated one way or the other whether gambling rebates are exempt under the law. However, I have a difficult time believing they would consider a rebate on a wager to be the same as a rebate on the purchase of a personal item. But, as I said, they haven't ruled as far as I know.

I am not eligible for rebates, so I don't care to do more research. But, now that I've thought about it, if I were eligible for rebates and made lots of money from them, I'd probably treat them as tax free and hold tax payment money in reserve until the statute of limitations passed on my return just in case.

By the way, I'd love a source if you have one and I'm completely wrong. I'm not opposed to being corrected, and it would add a lot to what could be a very fun thread IMO.

And now, to answer your question: I can't depend on horse racing for a living right now, and probably never will. I think gambling profitably as a side income is great. However, relying on gambling as the sole source of income would not be for me.

Having lived through the on-line poker fiasco of a few years ago, I don't trust that it can't all be taken away with the swipe of some jerk's pen. Three or ten years of professional horse handicapping isn't a very good resume stuffer.

Also, who's to say that my edge (if I had one) would survive? Age may make me dumber than I am already:lol: What then? I'll admit that I am jealous of people who can do it though...

I was just trying to be funny, not trying to be mean pal.....

I found this in a UNLV research paper:

According to Revenue Ruling 76-96, (1976), rebates are considered a reduction in the
purchase price of a transaction and are not required to be included in the taxpayers gross income.
This ruling stands today, therefore if one were to interpret the cash back and comps from casinos
as a rebate it would not be incumbent on the taxpayer to include this as income.


I also, found it on an ADW website. That page is now gone but it clearly said that rebates are non taxable.

[EMD4ME]

I can't agree with what you say here. What percentage of the working population would you say gets up at sunrise...so they could spend the next 10+ hours of the day, first preparing for...and then working at a job that they dislike...for a boss who they think dislikes THEM? And then they keep doing this for the next 40 years or so. Is THIS much of a "well-rounded life"? Professional gambling is just like any other "job"...except that it affords you the freedom to do your work on your OWN terms...instead of forcing you to operate on someone ELSE'S schedule. Your "job" cannot supply you with the "life balance" that you seek...that's what your NON-WORKING life is for.

Yes...the professional gambler has to provide for his own "employment benefits"...but every day of his life is alive with new possibilities. He trades in the "security" of a regular paycheck...for the freedom and "aliveness" that he feels every day. I know...I know. You keep reading here about how "exhausting" professional gambling is...and how "tormented" the pro gambler is...because he doesn't receive any "public recognition".

Don't believe a word of it!

The professional gambler can't wait for the next day to come...and if he needs a "trophy"...he goes out and BUYS one. Not having to bow his head down to a boss, and making up his own schedule...makes up for whatever negative side-effects his "job" may cause. Is this lifestyle for EVERYONE? Of course not...nor SHOULD it be. But for some select individuals...it's the only life that they care to lead.

After all...we only go around once in this life.


I don't think a professional gambler would lead a miserable life.

If you wake up at 11 am instead of 6 am, handicap a card that starts at 4 pm , wager $2000 and make $200 for the day (plus $200 in rebates) VS. being stressed and miserable from 6 am till 6 pm at a "job", I see the former as more fun.

Many jobs offer no flexibility. Being a PG, gives you flexibility. You can sleep late, work from home, babysit, go to a DR, go the gym mid day etc.

I personally handled about $1 Million this year. That was with a new FT (OVERTIME) career change this year. I many times wonder if I could handle $2-$3 million if I didn't work 50 hours a week.

That's $200K-$300K in rebates in that scenario.

Getting back to mental sanity....If you really miss the human interaction the workforce offers, you could work P/T or attend many different types of community business events, if you miss the action of the workforce.

Plus, I am sure many here have said to themselves, shoot, if I wasn't so busy, I would've noticed this horse or that trip etc.

Think of how much more you would find IF you had additional time.

[no breathalyzer]

shieeeeeeeeet all i been doing lately has been working.. hardly any time to look at racing forms.... trust me i wish i didn't have to work.. but with a kid its the smart thing to do.. on the bright side i have a pretty decent bankroll i'm waiting to explode with once it slows down after the holidays at my job

[no breathalyzer]

i been waiting to strike with vigorous force on the rite horse for a while now.. when i do find it there is no turning back! in the meantime i will keep on banking up till its time to strike.. i proud of the discipline i have displayed this yr.. truly great progress in that category... think its has something to do with having to work for income.. who wants to work all weak and be reckless with the money you had to work all week for? When you gambling sometimes the $$ switches hands so fast it doesn't seem real at times

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I could never do it.

1-I do not consistently win enough to justify not working
2-Racing is one thing that I love, specifically the gambling. I like to keep it in in this regard versus turning it into a full time job. Yes it does afford you the ability to have a flexible schedule, but taking it from a fun day out to grinding every day just isnt for me.
3-Too much of any good thing is bad. Even when I go on my binge vegas trips after a couple days it just gets old. Something has to be said to looking forward to something. Whether it is that one day a week to enjoy yourself or eating pizza on the weekend after dieting all week, it keeps it special in my opinion.

To each their own, but I am also pretty sure my wife would divorce me if I was at the track all the time, especially on the weekends when the tracks I like to play are running and she is off.

:)

[EMD4ME]

I could never do it.

1-I do not consistently win enough to justify not working
2-Racing is one thing that I love, specifically the gambling. I like to keep it in in this regard versus turning it into a full time job. Yes it does afford you the ability to have a flexible schedule, but taking it from a fun day out to grinding every day just isnt for me.
3-Too much of any good thing is bad. Even when I go on my binge vegas trips after a couple days it just gets old. Something has to be said to looking forward to something. Whether it is that one day a week to enjoy yourself or eating pizza on the weekend after dieting all week, it keeps it special in my opinion.

To each their own, but I am also pretty sure my wife would divorce me if I was at the track all the time, especially on the weekends when the tracks I like to play are running and she is off.

:)

So, you don't go to the track on Saturdays or Sundays/holidays? Only during the week?

[EMD4ME]

i been waiting to strike with vigorous force on the rite horse for a while now.. when i do find it there is no turning back! in the meantime i will keep on banking up till its time to strike.. i proud of the discipline i have displayed this yr.. truly great progress in that category... think its has something to do with having to work for income.. who wants to work all weak and be reckless with the money you had to work all week for? When you gambling sometimes the $$ switches hands so fast it doesn't seem real at times

Discipline is paramount. Good man NB :ThmbUp:

If I ever turn back to the player I was years ago, I'd shoot myself. I've had a slow progression towards additional discipline for a long while.

No going back.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...2-Racing is one thing that I love, specifically the gambling. I like to keep it in in this regard versus turning it into a full time job. ...

:)

Agree completely. Every time I've gotten the most sour on handicapping and betting has been when its inadvertently turn into something of a job. Ironically, it seems more likely to happen when things are going pretty well. Like a little success pushes me even farther into obsession whereas a bad spell will cool me off generally. I try now to enjoy it and catch myself before it happens. There aren't exactly dozens of exciting things I look forward to and enjoy doing in the course of a day, week, whatever, so I have to make sure that I enjoy this one.

[garyscpa]

I was just trying to be funny, not trying to be mean pal.....

I found this in a UNLV research paper:

According to Revenue Ruling 76-96, (1976), rebates are considered a reduction in the
purchase price of a transaction and are not required to be included in the taxpayers gross income.
This ruling stands today, therefore if one were to interpret the cash back and comps from casinos
as a rebate it would not be incumbent on the taxpayer to include this as income.


I also, found it on an ADW website. That page is now gone but it clearly said that rebates are non taxable.

See bolded above. A reduction in the purchase price of your bets results in additional taxable income or less loss.

[NorCalGreg]

See bolded above. A reduction in the purchase price of your bets results in additional taxable income or less loss.

Are you really a CPA? Of course, you're reducing the purchase price--at the same time reducing the income by deducting rebates and comps--where are you getting ADDITIONAL INCOME?

[Rutgers]

Rebates are price adjustments.

If a person made $100,000 in wagers but received 7% back in rebates, on his/her taxes he/she would record $93,000 wagered. ($100,000-$7,000)

If his/her total winning were $100,000, he/she would have an income of $7,000. The $7,000 income would be subject to income tax at the federal level. (winnings minus amount wagered or $100,000-$93,000)

Likewise, if his/her total winning were $95,000, he/she would have an income of $2,000.

For the most part from a tax liability view for those who itemize their deductions, it doesn’t matter whether rebates are considered income vs. price adjustments, provided the tax rate for gambling winnings is the same as what it would be for rebates. It should be noted, however, it is not a choice. In order to properly file a federal tax form, rebates must be treated as a price adjustment.

Rebates being treated as price adjustments does provide an advantage to the player who does not itemize their deductions. In the first example, instead of being tax on $107,000 (or $100,000 winnings plus $7,000 rebate) the player is taxed on only $100,000. In the second example, the player is taxed only on $95,000, not $102,000.

[Dave Schwartz]

Garyscpa is certainly right about this.

End4Me if you are subject to U.S. taxes, they will come for you.


My take on work/business versus gambling is that:

1. If you make $X in your day job or business with limited or no risk, then you need to make at least $2X in a gambling endeavor to compensate you for the risk.

2. Getting a 7% rebate does not necessarily equate to 7% profit, unless, of course, you are breaking even (or better) on the flat portion.

3. For me there is also the quality-of-life issue. Successfully gambling for income is not a stroll though the park. It is a time-sensitive and demanding job.


Personally, I have made two efforts at full-time play. The first, back in the late 1980s, was when I was always playing on a short bankroll. Frankly, I did remarkably well.

Started each month with only $500-$800 and by the end of the month had made enough money to pay rent, feed the family, etc. It was a grueling day - 6:30am to 10:30 at night, 5 or 6 days a week. A short bank makes for a real grind cycle.

The 2nd time was 2 years ago this month. I committed to playing 4-6 hours per day 4 days per week (Thu-Sun). After about 3 weeks I was burned out pretty badly, plus my business was suffering.

It is a very intense work week.

Truthfully, I think that my desire to be a full-time horse player has just passed.

Don't misunderstand - I love the game. And I especially enjoy beating the game with a system I created. But to do it by a time schedule is just a lot like work.


Dave

[rsetup]

Never. You're never anywhere for any appreciable period, according to Heracltus.

[NorCalGreg]

Rebates are price adjustments.

If a person made $100,000 in wagers but received 7% back in rebates, on his/her taxes he/she would record $93,000 wagered. ($100,000-$7,000)

If his/her total winning were $100,000, he/she would have an income of $7,000. The $7,000 income would be subject to income tax at the federal level. (winnings minus amount wagered or $100,000-$93,000)

Likewise, if his/her total winning were $95,000, he/she would have an income of $2,000.

For the most part from a tax liability view for those who itemize their deductions, it doesn’t matter whether rebates are considered income vs. price adjustments, provided the tax rate for gambling winnings is the same as what it would be for rebates. It should be noted, however, it is not a choice. In order to properly file a federal tax form, rebates must be treated as a price adjustment.

Rebates being treated as price adjustments does provide an advantage to the player who does not itemize their deductions. In the first example, instead of being tax on $107,000 (or $100,000 winnings plus $7,000 rebate) the player is taxed on only $100,000. In the second example, the player is taxed only on $95,000, not $102,000.

A professional gambler would always itemize, just by the nature of his business, right?
I see your point Garyscpa....I stand corrected.

[EMD4ME]

I always pay the correct amount of taxes. That's 1 thing I never miss with.

I actually over pay due to my massive amount of w-2 G's. Yes I do itemize but you can't fully itemize gambling dollars in NYS or NYC.

Such is life. I swallowed that years ago.

[AndyC]

I was just trying to be funny, not trying to be mean pal.....

I found this in a UNLV research paper:

According to Revenue Ruling 76-96, (1976), rebates are considered a reduction in the
purchase price of a transaction and are not required to be included in the taxpayers gross income.
This ruling stands today, therefore if one were to interpret the cash back and comps from casinos
as a rebate it would not be incumbent on the taxpayer to include this as income.


I also, found it on an ADW website. That page is now gone but it clearly said that rebates are non taxable.

:ThmbDown:

[2low]

I was just trying to be funny, not trying to be mean pal.....

I found this in a UNLV research paper:

According to Revenue Ruling 76-96, (1976), rebates are considered a reduction in the
purchase price of a transaction and are not required to be included in the taxpayers gross income.
This ruling stands today, therefore if one were to interpret the cash back and comps from casinos
as a rebate it would not be incumbent on the taxpayer to include this as income.


I also, found it on an ADW website. That page is now gone but it clearly said that rebates are non taxable.

That's exactly what I was talking about That paper is wishful thinking in my opinion. The rebate rule is in place for purchase of personal goods, like my car example. The chances of the IRS considering rebates on gambling to be tax exempt are zero IMO. They simply reduce the cost of the bet, increasing the taxable gain if you win.

The reason they don't tax rebates on purchase of a refrigerator, for example, is because you are never subject to tax on the proceeds if you ever sell the refrigerator. Very different from gambling rebates.

[mountainman]

Several years ago I wagered online with a partner. She was bold. We went on a roll. Our winnings were unfathomable. For 5 hot minutes, we considered playing full time. We then lost a big chunk back. Things ended badly.

The final profits were considerable-but hardly "unfathomable."

Her skill set and mine meshed perfectly-our personalities not so much. It was a stormy affiliation.

But I needed her in order to win big-and she needed me.

Left strictly to my own devices, I'm neither bold nor disciplined enough to wager for a living.

[AndyC]

Rebates are price adjustments.

If a person made $100,000 in wagers but received 7% back in rebates, on his/her taxes he/she would record $93,000 wagered. ($100,000-$7,000)

If his/her total winning were $100,000, he/she would have an income of $7,000. The $7,000 income would be subject to income tax at the federal level. (winnings minus amount wagered or $100,000-$93,000)

Likewise, if his/her total winning were $95,000, he/she would have an income of $2,000.

For the most part from a tax liability view for those who itemize their deductions, it doesn’t matter whether rebates are considered income vs. price adjustments, provided the tax rate for gambling winnings is the same as what it would be for rebates. It should be noted, however, it is not a choice. In order to properly file a federal tax form, rebates must be treated as a price adjustment.

Rebates being treated as price adjustments does provide an advantage to the player who does not itemize their deductions. In the first example, instead of being tax on $107,000 (or $100,000 winnings plus $7,000 rebate) the player is taxed on only $100,000. In the second example, the player is taxed only on $95,000, not $102,000.

Your example in your last paragraph doesn't make logical sense in that a non-professional gambler would end up itemizing solely by virtue of the gambling losses.

[NorCalGreg]

Never gotten a rebate in my life....but I can guarantee you if I was getting thousands a year in rebates I would know a hell of a lot about them.

LOL...Twinspires now shows your "Elite Wagering Credits" when logging in.

Probably get a Form 207-B "ELITE WAGERING CREDIT" to be added to income

[AltonKelsey]

Several years ago I wagered online with a partner. She was bold. We went on a roll. Our winnings were unfathomable. For 5 hot minutes, we considered playing full time. We then lost a big chunk back. Things ended badly.

The final profits were considerable-but hardly "unfathomable."

Her skill set and mine meshed perfectly-our personalities not so much. It was a stormy affiliation.

But I needed her in order to win big-and she needed me.

Left strictly to my own devices, I'm neither bold nor disciplined enough to wager for a living.

Folks should take this to heart, coming from someone that actually HAS a clue.

It's a very tough game, and even tougher on the PSYCHE. Maintaining equilibrium and focus is the HARDEST part of the game.

The handicapping and money management can be mastered, the emotional stuff will do many in.

[NorCalGreg]

Folks should take this to heart, coming from someone that actually HAS a clue.

It's a very tough game, and even tougher on the PSYCHE. Maintaining equilibrium and focus is the HARDEST part of the game.

The handicapping and money management can be mastered, the emotional stuff will do many in.

Agree 100%... the handicapping is the easiest of the three.

How in hell does anyone ever succeed in this game---when picking winners is just the beginning? I admire anyone that can.

[thaskalos]

IMO...it largely depends on what other employment options are available to the particular horseplayer. If he is an academically credentialed "professional"...then he is likely to keep his day-job, and retain gambling as a hobby. But if he works in a deli...then he will probably foster dreams of earning his living at the track.

The sad part is that some of us discovered this game in our youth...and it interfered with our academic studies. :)

[ultracapper]

Folks should take this to heart, coming from someone that actually HAS a clue.

It's a very tough game, and even tougher on the PSYCHE. Maintaining equilibrium and focus is the HARDEST part of the game.

The handicapping and money management can be mastered, the emotional stuff will do many in.

WORD

[ReplayRandall]

How in hell does anyone ever succeed in this game---when picking winners is just the beginning?

The answer to your question.....Having meaningful goals.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

In order to be a professional player you must have a 'brutal' honesty about your strengths and weaknesses, and you must eliminate the weaknesses fast or they will eliminate you!!!

You must learn to play in a virtually unemotional state where you have no emotion and no excuses with a result of a wager.

[VigorsTheGrey]

In order to be a professional player you must have a 'brutal' honesty about your strengths and weaknesses, and you must eliminate the weaknesses fast or they will eliminate you!!!

You must learn to play in a virtually unemotional state where you have no emotion and no excuses with a result of a wager.

What you say here is no doubt true but it brings us to the interesting question, "Why are we in this game to begin with...." What exactly do we wish from it....?

I need to think about that one for a long while...how about you...?

What is in it for you?

[2low]

Along these lines, I can't imagine any form of gambling is any different than poker, which I have lots of experience with.

The fun must be in learning what the right decisions are, following through with the right decisions and feeling good about the outcome, win or lose if you followed the plan.

A short term results-oriented person will be emotionally chewed up, swallowed and shat. Tilt is the devil.

[rsetup]

Folks should take this to heart, coming from someone that actually HAS a clue.

It's a very tough game, and even tougher on the PSYCHE. Maintaining equilibrium and focus is the HARDEST part of the game.

The handicapping and money management can be mastered, the emotional stuff will do many in.

I don't disagree that a life of that sort would be difficult psychologically. But I don't think the difficult part is 'maintaining equilibrium and focus'. Nor do I believe that the 'emotional' is more difficult to master than the handicapping (and money management) component.

[Rutgers]

Your example in your last paragraph doesn't make logical sense in that a non-professional gambler would end up itemizing solely by virtue of the gambling losses.

You’re right, in the example the player would be better off itemizing his/her deductions, and hopefully he/she lives in a no-income tax state or a state that allows (full) deductions of gambling losses. Depending on his/her filing status and other income, he/she could also face an Alternative Minimum Tax situation well.

A better example would have been a horseplayer who wagered $5,200 with a 3% rebate and won $6,000. If he/she takes the standard deduction, he/she benefits by having the rebate being a price reduction and not taxable income, because he/she is paying tax on $6,000 and not $6,156. (granted they only profited $956 and are paying tax on over 6 times that amount)

The point I had hope to illustrate was rebates are price adjustments and not income, but for most of those that do itemize it makes no real financial difference. (Though in some cases it would) I mentioned the impact on the player that does not itemize because over 2/3 of the US tax payers do not itemized their deductions, but I should of adjusted the example to reflect more realistic numbers.

[AndyC]

You’re right, in the example the player would be better off itemizing his/her deductions, and hopefully he/she lives in a no-income tax state or a state that allows (full) deductions of gambling losses. Depending on his/her filing status and other income, he/she could also face an Alternative Minimum Tax situation well.

A better example would have been a horseplayer who wagered $5,200 with a 3% rebate and won $6,000. If he/she takes the standard deduction, he/she benefits by having the rebate being a price reduction and not taxable income, because he/she is paying tax on $6,000 and not $6,156. (granted they only profited $956 and are paying tax on over 6 times that amount)

The point I had hope to illustrate was rebates are price adjustments and not income, but for most of those that do itemize it makes no real financial difference. (Though in some cases it would) I mentioned the impact on the player that does not itemize because over 2/3 of the US tax payers do not itemized their deductions, but I should of adjusted the example to reflect more realistic numbers.

The difference it can make is where AGI affects deductions or the inclusion of income such as social security. Certainly better off as a price adjustment.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Overcome the high takeout, the small fields, the low payouts, overcome the emotions, overcome the bad handicapping, overcome the racing luck, overcome the trainers intentions of not running to win today, overcome the jockeys bad rides, overcome the parking fee, the admission fee, the cost of racing forms, the gas to and from the track, overcome the time lost studying the pps, the video replay time, the time spent reviewing the charts, overcome the time lost blogging on-topic AND off-topic, AND NOW overcome the TAX MAN also......!?!?!?

Sure is an awful lot of overcoming to overcome....

[EMD4ME]

Overcome the high takeout, the small fields, the low payouts, overcome the emotions, overcome the bad handicapping, overcome the racing luck, overcome the trainers intentions of not running to win today, overcome the jockeys bad rides, overcome the parking fee, the admission fee, the cost of racing forms, the gas to and from the track, overcome the time lost studying the pps, the video replay time, the time spent reviewing the charts, overcome the time lost blogging on-topic AND off-topic, AND NOW overcome the TAX MAN also......!?!?!?

Sure is an awful lot of overcoming to overcome....

And when you do for a solid amount of time, you know, you've arrived....

[EMD4ME]

Overcome the high takeout, the small fields, the low payouts, overcome the emotions, overcome the bad handicapping, overcome the racing luck, overcome the trainers intentions of not running to win today, overcome the jockeys bad rides, overcome the parking fee, the admission fee, the cost of racing forms, the gas to and from the track, overcome the time lost studying the pps, the video replay time, the time spent reviewing the charts, overcome the time lost blogging on-topic AND off-topic, AND NOW overcome the TAX MAN also......!?!?!?

Sure is an awful lot of overcoming to overcome....

I wise friend once told me: There isn't a single person on track, who could ever help a winning player win. They are ALL nothing but distractions and a hinderance.

You left that out :lol:

[ReplayRandall]

I wise friend once told me: There isn't a single person on track, who could ever help a winning player win. They are ALL nothing but distractions and a hinderance.

You left that out :lol:

Does that apply to message boards as well?....;)

[EMD4ME]

Does that apply to message boards as well?....;)

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Absolutely not. I would say, there are about 100 tons of intelligence here, compared to the masses I see at the track. (Excluding maybe 3 people I see at NYRA regularly).

[ReplayRandall]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Absolutely not. I would say, there are about 100 tons of intelligence here, compared to the masses I see at the track. (Excluding maybe 3 people I see at NYRA regularly).

Really?? You mean to tell me, your major influence from a mentor's standpoint, wasn't found at the track or OTB/Racebook?...Must be those "3 people" you see at NYRA regularly.

[EMD4ME]

Really?? You mean to tell me, your major influence from a mentor's standpoint, wasn't found at the track or OTB/Racebook?...Must be those "3 people" you see at NYRA regularly.

They all died, disappeared or play from home now :lol: :lol: :lol:

Just kidding, halfway.

You're making me ponder, which is healthy.

I've learned the hard way, stories too long to tell....

I will say this and I hate to say it. Most people I have met, 99.99% of them, have tought me what NOT to do, not WHAT TO DO.

I learned through blood, sweat and tears, what to do and how to do it.

I've taken the good of Litfin (notebooks, cutting out PP's of winners, chart studies etc), Cornman (importance of replay watching), Beyer (Figs), CJ (TFUS), TLG (trips and traps), Cigar reminded me WHY daily time analysis was so vital back in 1994, this 1 on track gentlemen really showed me the light with track bias and I was doing A's B's and C's before Christ came out with his book.

Overall, there is 1 player at NYRA who is super diligent and talented. I've seen his six figure account and account history. He is 1 of maybe 3 that I "respect" overall these days. The rest, ask for picks all day and stalk to see what I am betting.

[EMD4ME]

Really?? You mean to tell me, your major influence from a mentor's standpoint, wasn't found at the track or OTB/Racebook?...Must be those "3 people" you see at NYRA regularly.

Also, I didn't know this place existed till my 33rd or so year at the track.

Finally, an oxymoron. I always have an open mind to learn and get better but to be blunt, there's just not anyone that I interact with on track that i can honestly say: you tought me something about horse racing.

Delta has come the closest with his excellent Horizontal software and excellent analytical mind but I am not the PC guy so my yearning to sponge his knowledge is thwarted by that.

I love to handicap in a well rounded fashion. If someone took away MY EYES and my ability to interpret dynamics, flow, bias, intent, I'd be dead in this game. I love the super small nuances that are not in any PP. Not many people I meet utilize that angle.

I must say, there are dozens of ways to skin a cat. Others can do 10X better without doing a single thing that I put into my capping. I respect that. To each his own :ThmbUp:

Blabbing session over :D

[ReplayRandall]

I must say, there are dozens of ways to skin a cat. Others can do 10X better without doing a single thing that I put into my capping. I respect that.

Speaking of others, there's a person I talk to outside the US on a semi-regular basis, who will remain nameless, who is on the verge of finally completing a "black box". Many years in the making, a relentless perfectionist, but through trial and error and tons of raw coarse data, the likes of which 99.999% of methodologists would have thrown in the towel long ago, will soon be implementing his "bot" in the betting pools. Do you think he feels he's "THERE"?.....Never made a real bet in over 5 years......Says, it's now or never Time.

Just one last thought, I wonder how many "black boxer's" are already in the pools, or are about to start operations in the near future....As if the game isn't hard enough, glad I'm on a different less traveled path.

[Magister Ludi]

Just one last thought, I wonder how many "black boxer's" are already in the pools...

At least one.

[EasyGoer89]

Overcome the high takeout, the small fields, the low payouts, overcome the emotions, overcome the bad handicapping, overcome the racing luck, overcome the trainers intentions of not running to win today, overcome the jockeys bad rides, overcome the parking fee, the admission fee, the cost of racing forms, the gas to and from the track, overcome the time lost studying the pps, the video replay time, the time spent reviewing the charts, overcome the time lost blogging on-topic AND off-topic, AND NOW overcome the TAX MAN also......!?!?!?

Sure is an awful lot of overcoming to overcome....

Most Winners bet from home. The money and time wasted going to the track live is hard to overcome. Tracks charge 4 bucks for a cup of coffee, which is essentially saying 'stay home, we don't want your live business'

[rsetup]

Also, I didn't know this place existed till my 33rd or so year at the track.

Finally, an oxymoron. I always have an open mind to learn and get better but to be blunt, there's just not anyone that I interact with on track that i can honestly say: you tought me something about horse racing.

Delta has come the closest with his excellent Horizontal software and excellent analytical mind but I am not the PC guy so my yearning to sponge his knowledge is thwarted by that.

I love to handicap in a well rounded fashion. If someone took away MY EYES and my ability to interpret dynamics, flow, bias, intent, I'd be dead in this game. I love the super small nuances that are not in any PP. Not many people I meet utilize that angle.

I must say, there are dozens of ways to skin a cat. Others can do 10X better without doing a single thing that I put into my capping. I respect that. To each his own :ThmbUp:

Blabbing session over :D if your tech, stats and analytic skills were on par with your racing skills, you think Delta would still impress you?

[therussmeister]

Most Winners bet from home. The money and time wasted going to the track live is hard to overcome. Tracks charge 4 bucks for a cup of coffee, which is essentially saying 'stay home, we don't want your live business'
Whenever I see a post that starts with "Most winners..." I ignore it. Even players who are themselves winners don't know enough other winners to know what most winners do.

By the way, my home track charges $1.50 for coffee with free refills.

[EMD4ME]

if your tech, stats and analytic skills were on par with your racing skills, you think Delta would still impress you?

1) Delta is a very good soul, a rarity in this disgusting world.

2) I'll speak more blunt now, Delta is 1 of the few people that can hold a horse racing conversation with me and vice versa. The rest are lacking horse racing IQ. Speaking of on track people.

3) My analytical skills are on par with my horse racing skills but yes my tech skills absolutely suck :lol:

4) I'm not a super stats guy. I incorporate them into my horse work but don't leave a horse out because the trainer is 1/14 with 2nd time starters stretching out for the first time.

[FakeNameChanged]

Whenever I see a post that starts with "Most winners..." I ignore it. Even players who are themselves winners don't know enough other winners to know what most winners do.

By the way, my home track charges $1.50 for coffee with free refills.
Two bucks at mine, and it's putrid.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

What you say here is no doubt true but it brings us to the interesting question, "Why are we in this game to begin with...." What exactly do we wish from it....?

I need to think about that one for a long while...how about you...?

What is in it for you?

My statement can be applied to trading and other speculations. If you want to succeed you have to be willing to completely be honest with yourself and take a self examination of how you react to losing and brutal beats and also to winning. So may traders,gamblers fail in their endeavor to make a living because they are not psychologically prepared to do what it takes to keep an even un-emotional balance.

The game can be a roller coaster ride of dizzying winning runs and almost endless crushing losing runs, how do you react, at what point do you lose confidence in yourself and your ability to succeed. The answer varies with the individual gambler. I say when you have all the necessary skills and knowledge the psychological aspects can be the killer!!

[EMD4ME]

My statement can be applied to trading and other speculations. If you want to succeed you have to be willing to completely be honest with yourself and take a self examination of how you react to losing and brutal beats and also to winning. So may traders,gamblers fail in their endeavor to make a living because they are not psychologically prepared to do what it takes to keep an even un-emotional balance.

The game can be a roller coaster ride of dizzying winning runs and almost endless crushing losing runs, how do you react, at what point do you lose confidence in yourself and your ability to succeed. The answer varies with the individual gambler. I say when you have all the necessary skills and knowledge the psychological aspects can be the killer!!

I won't explain details but I, personally lost 3 pick 5's, for a total of $375,000 in the last quarter. Off course, all horses that got screwed, won next out.

I blinked and moved on. If you can't, you tilt and die in this game.

If I would've harbored on it, I would've missed out on hitting the next series of good scores.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I won't explain details but I, personally lost 3 pick 5's, for a total of $375,000 in the last quarter. Off course, all horses that got screwed, won next out.

I blinked and moved on. If you can't, you tilt and die in this game.

If I would've harbored on it, I would've missed out on hitting the next series of good scores.

BINGO!!!

[RichieP]

"EMD"
I love your signature line, may I ask how much time you devote to working races, replay watching etc per week? Also do you multi-track or wager on only 1 or 2 circuits?

Thank you in advance and I wish you and yours a great holiday season and a Happy Gobble-Gobble day! :)

[EMD4ME]

"EMD"
I love your signature line, may I ask how much time you devote to working races, replay watching etc per week? Also do you multi-track or wager on only 1 or 2 circuits?

Thank you in advance and I wish you and yours a great holiday season and a Happy Gobble-Gobble day! :)

I study every single day. When I get home from work and tend to family, the first thing I do is watch the day's replays from my track (s).

I bet NYRA year round, EMD from April to Sep, Portland from Oct to Dec and Sam Houston in Jan Feb.

I dabble in Maiden races (love Maiden races) across the country but with small action as I am a huge bias believer. If I don't follow a circuit, I have no idea what the track bias for that track's prior days.

Those are my tracks. I couldn't care less about the BC, :sleeping: Derby, Preakness or Belmont.

I figure I spend 30 hours a week into replays. I do unfortunately mulitask with family and other crap while I watch, so we get delayed but I feel so much more prepared when all replays are done.

Today, my entire day was made off 1 replay. I loved the 6 in the 6th race at PM. When I first looked at the race a few days ago, I said to myself: Pig field. No opinions there. When I watched the replay of the 6's last race (against 4 of the same foes he had today), I said wow, his flesh got better, he looks thicker and ran much better.

He won easy at 5/1. Singled him in Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5. Loved the 2&4 under him, hit the exacta nicely, tri nicely and super nicely as it came in 6452. $73 ex, $600 Tri and $2000 Super in a 7 horse field.

[Parkview_Pirate]

EMD4ME, this thread could have been titled "EMD4ME is having a good year, and feeling his oats..." :)

Whether or not you make your living solely from the ponies, trading the markets, poker, sports betting, or any other form of "inconsistent" and non-traditional income, you have to be in a place in your life that allows that freedom - which means, among other things, a solid bankroll and a winning method.

I would guess many folks on this forum meet that criteria, or at least have net assets/positive cash flow to allow them the opportunity to jump into professional gambling full time. I would guess many more though, due to family obligations, debt, working skills/experience, etc., are "trapped" with the need to have a traditional job, at least for the time being.

I would also guess that very few people ever make it to "there" as dedicated horseplayers, though more at least make the attempt.

I've tried a couple of times to make a go at earning a living at the track, once back in the mid 80s after I got out of the service, and again 10 years later while living in Lexington. While neither of those attempts panned out, I did discover 20 years ago that my skillset (computer work) and lack of debt did allow me the freedom to move around, always have a job I enjoyed, and provided time off between contracts to enjoy vacations, family visits, etc. I was "there" in life, just not at the ponies.

Earlier this year I quit my job to take some time off from the rat race, and discovered I'm closer to "there" than ever before. The growth in online tournaments is very positive, and since being able to focus now and then on handicapping, I've qualified for the Conquer the Crown tourney at GP next week, and the NHC in January (1st time). However, I don't have any delusions about being a full-time pro - it's grueling, my dedication isn't there, and I've got other things to accomplish in life. But I do believe I've moved up a partial notch on the recreational handicapper scale.

[EMD4ME]

There's a wealth of knowledge here on PA. I really wanted/want to see who (not specifically who) is there and why they are there.

I also want to see why someone isn't there.

I also want to see who even cares to be there.

Lot's of curiousity in my mind. That's all.

[VigorsTheGrey]

My statement can be applied to trading and other speculations. If you want to succeed you have to be willing to completely be honest with yourself and take a self examination of how you react to losing and brutal beats and also to winning. So may traders,gamblers fail in their endeavor to make a living because they are not psychologically prepared to do what it takes to keep an even un-emotional balance.

The game can be a roller coaster ride of dizzying winning runs and almost endless crushing losing runs, how do you react, at what point do you lose confidence in yourself and your ability to succeed. The answer varies with the individual gambler. I say when you have all the necessary skills and knowledge the psychological aspects can be the killer!!

One of my main questions revolves around bank roll size and wager type. Lately, I come to the conclusion that the p4 and p5's are the way to go..I have listened to enough posters here on PA to understand that consistent roi is very difficult to achieve...I intuitively believe that EMD's preference for p4 and p5 is the way to go....go after the pools that pay well....but I don't know how far to spread and how much is the right balance of risk/ reward is appropriate for these wagers....I get the feeling that EMD goes into these horizontals to the tune of 2000 to 3000 each using some form of exclusive/ or methodology and has multiple combinations with duplicate tickets each, but I'm not sure.... I know that I am severely undercapitalized bankroll wise and know without sufficient bet size, I'm really just grinding out a few dollars here and there and just being chum for the churn....not even close to being anywhere near THERE....

[EMD4ME]

One of my main questions revolves around bank roll size and wager type. Lately, I come to the conclusion that the p4 and p5's are the way to go..I have listened to enough posters here on PA to understand that consistent roi is very difficult to achieve...I intuitively believe that EMD's preference for p4 and p5 is the way to go....go after the pools that pay well....but I don't know how far to spread and how much is the right balance of risk/ reward is appropriate for these wagers....I get the feeling that EMD goes into these horizontals to the tune of 2000 to 3000 each using some form of exclusive/ or methodology and has multiple combinations with duplicate tickets each, but I'm not sure.... I know that I am severely undercapitalized bankroll wise and know without sufficient bet size, I'm really just grinding out a few dollars here and there and just being chum for the churn....not even close to being anywhere near THERE....

15 years ago, I was tapped for the day and walking out. A pal asked me for a cigarette, I said $2.

Bet a $2 exacta-paid $36

I then bet a $36 exacta-paid $50. Got back $800

Next race, bet a $1 super. Paid $4000.

Hit a couple more horizontals and left with $4000.

Next race day, $4000 turned to $8000.

Next race day, $8000 turned to $12,000

Story #2. I've walked into the track with $40 and left with $4000 hundreds of times. Not dozens but maybe even thousands. (Can't leave out the days we came with $4000 and left with .40 cents :lol: )

Point is, there are many ways to skin a cat.

The most profitable player I know, who at times has had $700,000 in his account, only bets to win. I mean $20,000 to win. $10,000 to win. Of course, most his bets are on horses that are 90% to win but pay 4/5 or 1/1.

He wants to know EVERYTHING about a field. Never bets slop, never bets races with babies, never bets the 1st race as track bias is vital to him.

I am looser than that but have evolved to be controlled. I bet 1 track, want to know everything about it.

Back to your point.......

If one decides to play pick 5's or pick 6's, you must know almost everything available about every horse. Not 90% of them running but 100%.

You must spend to win. Some sequences need $48 and some need $1500. You need to know WHEN and HOW to attack.

You need to know what your ROI will be IF you spend $1500 in a large pick. Is it worth it? Can the chalks lose? Do you have live bombs? Are there chaos races to leverage your ability to spend.

If you are right, you NEED to POUND it. Don't hit it for .50 cents or a buck. POUND IT.

On May 14th, I loved the pick 5 at Belmont. I bet it for $14 (off memory-could've been $13). 28 times what someone else might have it for. Why? Because I LOVED all 5 races. I had a couple of rock singles and knew which specific race needed to be spread a bit.

Paid $14,000.

There are SOOOO many variables in playing picks. If you don't have the stomach. Stay out, you will get 10 ulcers. If you see Mount Olympus and are the type to try and climb it, then ATTACK but only if you are ultimately prepared.

My 2 cents, know what you are great at. Know what you suck at.

I hate the poly. I hate many tracks as they are illogical to me.

I, personally, only play horizontals with a minor fraction of what I bet in verticals. I learned that only certain races are ripe for picking (for me) with horizontals.

I love parlays but only on certain days (track bias with me or fair) where there are certain horses running.

There is NOTHING wrong with finding 3 mortal locks a week and betting $200 on each, making $500 for the week.

It all depends on what one wants or is capable of in this game.


CORRECTION-had that pick 5 14 times or $7. And it paid just under $13,000 for a duece. Sorry for mispeaking.

[thaskalos]

EMD...how big should our bankroll be if our average pick-5 costs $1,500?

[Nitro]

How could anyone possibly refrain from posting on a thread that advances the elusive concept of self-patronage?

I'll simply add some food for thought: If you’re active player with REAL monetary goals there’s NO SUCH THING as “Knowing you are THERE” unless of course you’ve already reached those goals.
Then of course there’s no need to play!
I've always liked the expression: “Winners never Quit (until that goal is reached), and Quitters never Win (and will never reach that goal).”

So it follows that unless you know what your Goal is, you’ll never Know you’re “There”.

[EMD4ME]

EMD...how big should our bankroll be if our average pick-5 costs $1,500?

First, if you're average pick 5 cost $1500, I think you are doomed.

I threw that out there as in some rare cases, you do need to spend that much just to be able to hit some insanely hard sequences AND have it twice if you're super right.

If you're averaging $500 a ticket (with some plays punched 2,3,4,5 times) then I think you should at least have $10,000 in your roll.

I hate to jinx myself but I am so comfortable throwing such amounts into the right sequences because experience has tought me when to do it and when not to.

If someone's heart races with a $500 wager, don't bother, you're health is more important.

If someone can or is willing to do so, $10,000 is a decent starting point. You'll soon know if this is for you or not.

If you bust out with 20 pick 5's, pick 4's or pick 6's then it doesn't matter if your bankroll was $1,000,000. You're probably, being nice, a hopeless fish.


I know of someone, who is rumored to have access to monies they shouldn't, who was betting near 10x7x9x3x8 pick 5's. She lost SO much money as she had ZERO clue when to bet like that (near never) and when to shave things down. Sad part is, she has someone close to her, who is a pretty good capper. She rarely listens to him.

[EMD4ME]

How could anyone possibly refrain from posting on a thread that advances the elusive concept of self-patronage?

I'll simply add some food for thought: If you’re active player with REAL monetary goals there’s NO SUCH THING as “Knowing you are THERE” unless of course you’ve already reached those goals.
Then of course there’s no need to play!
I've always liked the expression: “Winners never Quit (until that goal is reached), and Quitters never Win (and will never reach that goal).”

So it follows that unless you know what your Goal is, you’ll never Know you’re “There”.


I am so glad you're THERE and I'M HERE :p :lol:

[VigorsTheGrey]

15 years ago, I was tapped for the day and walking out. A pal asked me for a cigarette, I said $2.

Bet a $2 exacta-paid $36

I then bet a $36 exacta-paid $50. Got back $800

Next race, bet a $1 super. Paid $4000.

Hit a couple more horizontals and left with $4000.

Next race day, $4000 turned to $8000.

Next race day, $8000 turned to $12,000

Story #2. I've walked into the track with $40 and left with $4000 hundreds of times. Not dozens but maybe even thousands. (Can't leave out the days we came with $4000 and left with .40 cents :lol: )

Point is, there are many ways to skin a cat.

The most profitable player I know, who at times has had $700,000 in his account, only bets to win. I mean $20,000 to win. $10,000 to win. Of course, most his bets are on horses that are 90% to win but pay 4/5 or 1/1.

He wants to know EVERYTHING about a field. Never bets slop, never bets races with babies, never bets the 1st race as track bias is vital to him.

I am looser than that but have evolved to be controlled. I bet 1 track, want to know everything about it.

Back to your point.......

If one decides to play pick 5's or pick 6's, you must know almost everything available about every horse. Not 90% of them running but 100%.

You must spend to win. Some sequences need $48 and some need $1500. You need to know WHEN and HOW to attack.

You need to know what your ROI will be IF you spend $1500 in a large pick. Is it worth it? Can the chalks lose? Do you have live bombs? Are there chaos races to leverage your ability to spend.

If you are right, you NEED to POUND it. Don't hit it for .50 cents or a buck. POUND IT.

On May 14th, I loved the pick 5 at Belmont. I bet it for $14 (off memory-could've been $13). 28 times what someone else might have it for. Why? Because I LOVED all 5 races. I had a couple of rock singles and knew which specific race needed to be spread a bit.

Paid $14,000.

There are SOOOO many variables in playing picks. If you don't have the stomach. Stay out, you will get 10 ulcers. If you see Mount Olympus and are the type to try and climb it, then ATTACK but only if you are ultimately prepared.

My 2 cents, know what you are great at. Know what you suck at.

I hate the poly. I hate many tracks as they are illogical to me.

I, personally, only play horizontals with a minor fraction of what I bet in verticals. I learned that only certain races are ripe for picking (for me) with horizontals.

I love parlays but only on certain days (track bias with me or fair) where there are certain horses running.

There is NOTHING wrong with finding 3 mortal locks a week and betting $200 on each, making $500 for the week.

It all depends on what one wants or is capable of in this game.


CORRECTION-had that pick 5 14 times or $7. And it paid just under $13,000 for a duece. Sorry for mispeaking.

What a great post...! Thanks for sharing EMD....hoping you have a great year. Love your idea about betting only 1 track... And I know which one it is now as I know you follow the nyra circuit closely...it is my favorite also but I lack the discipline to only bet 1track....but like Gus says, the fault lies within ourselves, we make ourselves underlings to our own selves by not being disciplined where we should...we choose to not be successful in exchange for the mindlessness of continuous distraction afforded by so many venues to bet on....I'll take all of what you say here to heart...I know that you just want to make me (us) better at this, this sport that we love so very much....! Thanks again....

[Nitro]

I am so glad you're THERE and I'M HERE :p :lol:

That certainly makes two of us! :jump:
I'm sorry my comment was a bit over your head, but take it "There" for whatever it's worth!

GL (Staying There!)

[EMD4ME]

That certainly makes two of us! :jump:
I'm sorry my comment was a bit over your head, but take it "There" for whatever it's worth!

GL (Staying There!)

Wasn't over my head, I understood the pointless ramble. After I woke up from my coma, I decided not to interact with you.

Unlike you, I come on here to angelicly shoot the horse manure with fellow fans, not blab about some stupid tote analyzing system that has magical powers to know which crunches are winning ones vs. some bot correcting a payout that is paying too much at the moment.

Let's define your "their". Dutching 3 horses to win to make a modest ROI.

My "here" is banging out pick 5's that pay $100,000. $7 pick 5's paying $13,000. $50 Pick 4's that pay $500.

I'll take my "here" any day of this relatively young century.

The day, anyone catches ME, piggybacking SOMEONE ELSE'S selections is the day I WANT EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU (AND YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY) TO PUT AN ENTIRE ROUND OF BULLETS THROUGHOUT MY ENTIRE BODY.

[steveb]

Wasn't over my head, I understood the pointless ramble. After I woke up from my coma, I decided not to interact with you.

Unlike you, I come on here to angelicly shoot the horse manure with fellow fans, not blab about some stupid tote analyzing system that has magical powers to know which crunches are winning ones vs. some bot correcting a payout that is paying too much at the moment.

Let's define your "their". Dutching 3 horses to win to make a modest ROI.

My "here" is banging out pick 5's that pay $100,000. $7 pick 5's paying $13,000. $50 Pick 4's that pay $500.

I'll take my "here" any day of this relatively young century.

The day, anyone catches ME, piggybacking SOMEONE ELSE'S selections is the day I WANT EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU (AND YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY) TO PUT AN ENTIRE ROUND OF BULLETS THROUGHOUT MY ENTIRE BODY.

although personally i think you are talking nonsense.
i sincerely thank you for providing me with some health giving chuckles.

[Nitro]

WOW! I apologize!
I should have used the term “Self-patronizing” instead of “Self-patronage”.
(Not that you would know the difference anyway)

You buddy are biggest trolling braggart I’ve ever seen on this forum. I could really give two shits about what you think or know about any part of this game. Besides all you ever share is your epic tales of glory and wealth.

You’re “There” alright! Please do me a favor and stay “there”.

[EMD4ME]

although personally i think you are talking nonsense.
i sincerely thank you for providing me with some health giving chuckles.

Here we go again. Jealousy is an ugly flaw....

Whatever, :sleeping: , it's to my benefit if no one listens to me. Carry on.

[EMD4ME]

WOW! I apologize!
I should have used the term “Self-patronizing” instead of “Self-patronage”.
(Not that you would know the difference anyway)

You buddy are biggest trolling braggart I’ve ever seen on this forum. I could really give two shits about what you think or know about any part of this game. Besides all you ever share is your epic tales of glory and wealth.

You’re “There” alright! Please do me a favor and stay “there”.

At least we understand eachother on 1 thing. I want no part of where you are. Carry on as well.

[steveb]

Here we go again. Jealousy is an ugly flaw....

Whatever, :sleeping: , it's to my benefit if no one listens to me. Carry on.

may i ask what i am jealous of?

and thank you for another chuckle.....
if it was a benefit to you that nobody listened to you, then it follows that your ego won't allow you to stay schtum.

some people just crack me up, thank you for that.

[EMD4ME]

although personally i think you are talking nonsense.
i sincerely thank you for providing me with some health giving chuckles.

To answer your question in your next post, you accuse ME of lying about my wagers.

Just for "health giving chuckles", here you go....

And don't EVER question such a righteous person like me ever again pal.

Anyone with result charts for May 14th, 2016 Belmont's pick 5, can see exactly what I am referring to.

[steveb]

please, oh please stop it.
too much laughing is starting to hurt.:lol:

[EMD4ME]

I refuse to bother screenshotting the rest of the scores that day. I think my point was proven.

It's people like you 2, that make me hate coming on here.

[EMD4ME]

please, oh please stop it.
too much laughing is starting to hurt.:lol:

I take it as such a great compliment that people can't let their ego's believe that someone is out there doing so well.

You keep laughing, if that's the way your denial makes your body react.

Thanks for filling my pockets up :ThmbUp:

[steveb]

oh and i forgot in my mirth, to mention, that one day or race or whatever means diddly squat.

but please can you give me five minutes, so i can have a break from laughing, before you continue?

[steveb]

I take it as such a great compliment that people can't let their ego's believe that someone is out there doing so well.

You keep laughing, if that's the way your denial makes your body react.

Thanks for filling my pockets up :ThmbUp:

i know there is a few people do well, thank you very much, but what has that got to do with anything?

and i have never filled your pockets, because i rarely bet, and never in the us of a

[EMD4ME]

oh and i forgot in my mirth, to mention, that one day or race or whatever means diddly squat.

but please can you give me five minutes, so i can have a break from laughing, before you continue?

No problem, here's another stack of scores ;)

I've wasted enough time on your ilk. Go back to laughing you in denial hyena. I'll go back to capping my next score.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=131488&highlight=greatest+racetrack

[steveb]

I refuse to bother screenshotting the rest of the scores that day. I think my point was proven.

It's people like you 2, that make me hate coming on here.


:lol::lol::lol::lol:
seriously, do you i think i care if you screenshot your magnanimous successes or not?

go on then, toodle off, nigh nigh.

[steveb]

No problem, here's another stack of scores ;)

I've wasted enough time on your ilk. Go back to laughing you in denial hyena. I'll go back to capping my next score.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=131488&highlight=greatest+racetrack

please,please, give me some respite. i can't take it any more, i'm fit to bust.
i am in awe of you, can't you tell! :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Honest question, not trying to be a jerk. I assume you are relying on the fact that rebates on purchases in general are non-taxable (getting a $2K rebate when buying a car, for instance)?

If so, I'll grant that rebates on gambling wagers are a gray area in that, to my knowledge, the IRS has never stated one way or the other whether gambling rebates are exempt under the law. However, I have a difficult time believing they would consider a rebate on a wager to be the same as a rebate on the purchase of a personal item. But, as I said, they haven't ruled as far as I know.

I am not eligible for rebates, so I don't care to do more research. But, now that I've thought about it, if I were eligible for rebates and made lots of money from them, I'd probably treat them as tax free and hold tax payment money in reserve until the statute of limitations passed on my return just in case.

By the way, I'd love a source if you have one and I'm completely wrong. I'm not opposed to being corrected, and it would add a lot to what could be a very fun thread IMO.

And now, to answer your question: I can't depend on horse racing for a living right now, and probably never will. I think gambling profitably as a side income is great. However, relying on gambling as the sole source of income would not be for me.

Having lived through the on-line poker fiasco of a few years ago, I don't trust that it can't all be taken away with the swipe of some jerk's pen. Three or ten years of professional horse handicapping isn't a very good resume stuffer.

Also, who's to say that my edge (if I had one) would survive? Age may make me dumber than I am already:lol: What then? I'll admit that I am jealous of people who can do it though...

I owe you an apology. I was too one sided in insisting that they are "tax free".

Erring on the side of caution, they are at least a reduction in cost basis.

I was working strictly off of what I saw and heard from ADW's: that they don't report them as income to the IRS. Of course, they are on everyone's ADW statement but not reported as income.

On the other side, the aggressive side, one can argue that they are like credit card cash back bonuses, tax free.

I'd love to know, where this will land one day.

[NorCalGreg]

I owe you an apology. I was too one sided in insisting that they are "tax free".

Erring on the side of caution, they are at least a reduction in cost basis.

I was working strictly off of what I saw and heard from ADW's: that they don't report them as income to the IRS. Of course, they are on everyone's ADW statement but not reported as income.

On the other side, the aggressive side, one can argue that they are like credit card cash back bonuses, tax free.

I'd love to know, where this will land one day.

Might I point out--for a guy that wagers ONE MILLION DOLLARS per year (your words)..has his own CPA (again you said it) you are incredibly ignorant about rebates. You're trolling the internet looking for info? You post up some kid's college paper?

*sigh* ...wouldn't you have just called your accountant years ago, on this matter?

[lamboguy]

http://blog.taxact.com/credit-card-rewards-as-taxable-income/

just by reading this article, no one seems to know what is right or wrong with any type of rebate.

my guess would be that someday the IRS will make you file for any rebate over $600 for the calendar year. some people may be getting $600 rebates in one day and they would need over 300 different adw's to stay away from the tax man.

not saying this will happen, but the IRS could treat the rebate over $600 as income and not let you deduct losses against. should that happen horse racing will immediately close its doors. this has happened in Massachusetts already, you have to pay a state tax on any winning over $600 with no deductions win or lose. the wagering handle in mass. has dropped to near nothing since the inception of this implementation.

there are other articles written about rebate if you google them, all of them have no cut and dry answer's either.

with the lack of jobs in this country as it is right now, the IRS would be crazy to shut down a whole industry like horse racing. but they are picking up new things like marijuana sales which is much larger than horse racing these days. a change in status would have major implications with casino's as well and probably lots of other things that i don't know of.

[EMD4ME]

Might I point out--for a guy that wagers ONE MILLION DOLLARS per year (your words)..has his own CPA (again you said it) you are incredibly ignorant about rebates. You're trolling the internet looking for info? You post up some kid's college paper?

*sigh* ...wouldn't you have just called your accountant years ago, on this matter?

NCG,

I like to sleep at night , so I over pay when it comes to taxes. I lose many of my deductions due to this recreational passion. I pay thousands of extra dollars for income that I never fully realized. Yes, I many times want to do this professionally for a living. Yes, I'm that damn good at this. But I'm not delusional. Without a healthy rebate, I could never survive. I purposely pass up top dollar rebates for many reasons, the IRS being #1A. If I make the leap to a professional player, I want this gray area fully black and white. I want to go from "reducing cost" to tax free. Nothing wrong with wanting that in writing. As I reread this thread I was a little rude to 1 poster and wanted to apologize. Nothing wrong with that. Yes, I've read a kids work but I also read senate bill 425 and IRS.gov inside out. And???

Nothing wrong with getting 2nd 3rd or 25th opinions.

[AndyC]

http://blog.taxact.com/credit-card-rewards-as-taxable-income/

just by reading this article, no one seems to know what is right or wrong with any type of rebate.

my guess would be that someday the IRS will make you file for any rebate over $600 for the calendar year. some people may be getting $600 rebates in one day and they would need over 300 different adw's to stay away from the tax man.

not saying this will happen, but the IRS could treat the rebate over $600 as income and not let you deduct losses against. should that happen horse racing will immediately close its doors. this has happened in Massachusetts already, you have to pay a state tax on any winning over $600 with no deductions win or lose. the wagering handle in mass. has dropped to near nothing since the inception of this implementation.

there are other articles written about rebate if you google them, all of them have no cut and dry answer's either.

with the lack of jobs in this country as it is right now, the IRS would be crazy to shut down a whole industry like horse racing. but they are picking up new things like marijuana sales which is much larger than horse racing these days. a change in status would have major implications with casino's as well and probably lots of other things that i don't know of.

Just because there are companies that think giving customers a 1099 for rebates is the right thing to do doesn't change the how they are treated taxwise. To my knowledge the IRS has not changed their position on rebates.

[AndyC]

I owe you an apology. I was too one sided in insisting that they are "tax free".

Erring on the side of caution, they are at least a reduction in cost basis.

I was working strictly off of what I saw and heard from ADW's: that they don't report them as income to the IRS. Of course, they are on everyone's ADW statement but not reported as income.

On the other side, the aggressive side, one can argue that they are like credit card cash back bonuses, tax free.

I'd love to know, where this will land one day.

You are apparently not getting it! Credit card cash back bonuses can result in increased taxable income. It definitely would if used in a business due to a lowering of the basis of the item purchased. For most people buying personal items it is tax free unless they sell the personal items for a profit.

[AndyC]

.....Without a healthy rebate, I could never survive. I purposely pass up top dollar rebates for many reasons, the IRS being #1A. If I make the leap to a professional player, I want this gray area fully black and white. I want to go from "reducing cost" to tax free......


I can't imagine any reason for passing up top dollar rebates. I can see being scared of the IRS if you have poor records but not because you are getting rebates.

Everyone would like to go from "reducing cost" to "tax-free" but it ain't gonna happen if you show a betting profit. If you lose it will be tax-free.

[Robert Fischer]

The HARD part is being able to win in the first place, AND remaining rational and exercising self control.


The EASY part is hiring some guy to do your taxes.

Should a serious player sit down with their tax professional, and ask questions, and lay out the different options, and discuss benefits and penalties to optimize profits? YES.

[2low]

Rebates once and for all:

I posted my answer in another thread before seeing that the subject is still being discussed here.

A rebate is a reduction of cost basis. Period. They are not in and of themselves generally taxable. However, in the case of gambling, your taxable gain will now increase by the amount of the rebate (or loss will decrease by the same amount). Since you've reduced the cost of the wager by the amount of the rebate, your net at the end of the day is greater by the amount of the rebate. Wager $10K, get $1K in rebates and win $20K, you've effectively wagered $9K and gotten $20K back for a net taxable gain of $11K vs. the $10K you would have been taxed on had you not received a rebate.

You were not taxed on the rebate, you were taxed on the additional gain that resulted because of the rebate.

[2low]

I ignored the personal item issue in my previous post. If you get a rebate on a personal item, again, the rebate is not taxable income in and of itself. However, it may or may not result in taxable income when the item is sold. It just depends on the nature of the item being purchased.

If you sell a personal item at a loss, which happens nearly always, no tax liability, and the rebate has no real effect on your tax bill.

Sell a personal item at a gain, you may have a tax liability, and the rebate increases the amount of the gain, just like in the wager example.

[ultracapper]

I don't disagree that a life of that sort would be difficult psychologically. But I don't think the difficult part is 'maintaining equilibrium and focus'. Nor do I believe that the 'emotional' is more difficult to master than the handicapping (and money management) component.

If you're making 8, 10, 12 bets a day that are each 1, 1.5, or 2% of your bankroll, the psychological part may not be as difficult as it is when you're making 3 bets a week each amounting to 15 or 20% of your bankroll a pop. Hitting a winner and adding $8000 to your bankroll can be every bit as dangerous and damaging as the $1200 bitch-slap when you lose. You have to stay away from that initial desire to find another one real quick and turn this into a $20K day every bit as much as you have to avoid that over-powering desire to chase the loss. You have to get back to even keel quick either way, or you can really screw things up in a way it may take weeks to correct.

[thaskalos]

I don't disagree that a life of that sort would be difficult psychologically. But I don't think the difficult part is 'maintaining equilibrium and focus'. Nor do I believe that the 'emotional' is more difficult to master than the handicapping (and money management) component.

We have to master the handicapping and betting aspects of this game in order to beat it...but the "emotional" aspect can easily topple the plans of even the BEST handicappers and bettors. "Gambling" is ADDICTIVE, as is, say...OVEREATING. Is there a fat man alive who doesn't know what needs to be done in order for him to lose the weight that he is suffering under? OF COURSE he knows what needs to be done...but KNOWING what needs to be done doesn't mean that he could do as he knows. He "diets" for a short while, but then the hunger pangs overwhelm him...and he goes back to his old self-destructive behavior. The same thing happens to the smoker, the drinker, the drug-user...and the gambler.

Every "serious" gambler has a "well thought-out plan", when he sits down to gamble...no matter if the arena is the racetrack or the poker table. But, as Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan...until they get hit in the mouth". The gambler gets hit in the mouth A LOT. Even if he only bets 1% or 2% of his bankroll on every bet, the losses can accumulate quickly, especially if he gambles on a regular basis. Add in those instances where he feels that mere inches have separated him from making some "serious money", or the times when "bad luck" has robbed him...and his blood can get to a serious boil. We may be the most "knowledgeable" gamblers in the world, but the bigger question is...can we make the best use of our knowledge when we place ourselves under "pressure"? Not many can.

Ultimately, IMO, it isn't the GAME that really beats us. We beat OURSELVES...as the game unemotionally just goes along.

[ultracapper]

I'm an addict and I know it. But I grew up playing board games on a daily basis, and the desire was always to master the game, whether chess, Parcheesi, or backgammon. As a kid, gambling never came into the equation. We played purely for the competition and entertainment. Horse racing brought a new dimension to game playing that invigorated me at a time when board games were losing their appeal, and the "sexy" aspect of gambling was embraced by a late-teen heart.

There was always a confidence in me that I'd figure out the handicapping part of the game, but the self-control required of the gambling aspect of the game has been a major battle since.

[PhantomOnTour]

You know you are THERE when you no longer come HERE

[thaskalos]

The truth is that you are never "THERE". Even the best player's "edge" in this game is so tenuous, that he can't possibly pound on his chess and declare that he "has ARRIVED". Because...even as he stands there admiring his accomplishments, he knows that he isn't standing on "solid ground"...and the earth might be crumbling underneath his feet.

[ReplayRandall]

You know you are THERE when you no longer come HERE

How would you know?....:lol:

[EMD4ME]

You know you are THERE when you no longer come HERE

Maybe when your THERE, you come here to make sure you don't tempt yourself with other wagers?

[classhandicapper]

The truth is that you are never "THERE". Even the best player's "edge" in this game is so tenuous, that he can't possibly pound on his chess and declare that he "has ARRIVED". Because...even as he stands there admiring his accomplishments, he knows that he isn't standing on "solid ground"...and the earth might be crumbling underneath his feet.

This is how I feel about it also. That's exactly why I don't bet large sums of money despite having the bankroll and results to justify it. I see the game as constantly changing and offering value in different ways as time passes. I am no lock to stay ahead of the crowd or come up with new ideas.

[ultracapper]

You know you are THERE when you no longer come HERE

That's an interesting thought, with some truth to it.

However, I joined this board in the midst of a very good run, needing somebody, anybody, to discuss horse racing with. I really wanted to talk about myself because I was really rolling at the time, but that didn't fly all that well. I was challenged pretty stoutly, and indeed, the run fizzled and I went into another of the infinite back and forth periods we all go into.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is a good thread. There is far more talk about bad beats and losing. I like seeing the aspects of winning covered in depth too. Really ruffles the crap out of some posters though. Which is also amusing! :)

[threegoldstars]

I always pay the correct amount of taxes. That's 1 thing I never miss with.



I always pay the correct amount of taxes, even when I don't.

Sincerely,

Tony Montana

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

One of my main questions revolves around bank roll size and wager type. Lately, I come to the conclusion that the p4 and p5's are the way to go..I have listened to enough posters here on PA to understand that consistent roi is very difficult to achieve...I intuitively believe that EMD's preference for p4 and p5 is the way to go....go after the pools that pay well....but I don't know how far to spread and how much is the right balance of risk/ reward is appropriate for these wagers....I get the feeling that EMD goes into these horizontals to the tune of 2000 to 3000 each using some form of exclusive/ or methodology and has multiple combinations with duplicate tickets each, but I'm not sure.... I know that I am severely undercapitalized bankroll wise and know without sufficient bet size, I'm really just grinding out a few dollars here and there and just being chum for the churn....not even close to being anywhere near THERE....

Vigors, In my opinion you can NEVER know whether a wager will be a winner or loser...it is just not possible, even at 1/9. With that being said I approach every one of my wagers as a serious investment meaning that I would make the same wager win or lose. No guesses, hunches, or maybe's. I want to know the percentages favor this wager. I admit I am behind in the exotic explosion of the past few years with the Pick4 5 superfectas etc.

I try to take advantage of a pool win, exacta, double pick3 etc. I want to go for the high return, yet hedge my wager, on occasion on the logical result that can turn my winning ticket into a loser had I not covered it. I believe too many players buy too many combinations in the exotics and greatly reduce the ROI. But like I stated I am behind in the area of these exotics.

If you think about how many wagers you waste because of guessing and hoping it would startle you that's why recordkeeping with a list of the "whys" of every wager is essential. A lot of people make action wagers to keep themselves involved while waiting for the prime wagers, while this works for some the vast majority of players abuse these action wagers and end up behind the 8 ball through out the day.

My job is simple, well not really simple LOL. Identify the advantage situations and be willing to wait for and wager only on these worthwhile bets with confidence.

[no breathalyzer]

If you're making 8, 10, 12 bets a day that are each 1, 1.5, or 2% of your bankroll, the psychological part may not be as difficult as it is when you're making 3 bets a week each amounting to 15 or 20% of your bankroll a pop. Hitting a winner and adding $8000 to your bankroll can be every bit as dangerous and damaging as the $1200 bitch-slap when you lose. You have to stay away from that initial desire to find another one real quick and turn this into a $20K day every bit as much as you have to avoid that over-powering desire to chase the loss. You have to get back to even keel quick either way, or you can really screw things up in a way it may take weeks to correct.

Seen it take many people down.. bad habit to break for some people

[proximity]

This is a good thread. There is far more talk about bad beats and losing. I like seeing the aspects of winning covered in depth too. Really ruffles the crap out of some posters though. Which is also amusing! :)

i think some smart posters here are skeptical of these "dick mitchell" 1.20+ long term roi with significant handle claims because they don't see what i call the "mirror" to these big winners; that being the big loser who is betting equal money every day and getting back forty cents on the dollar long term.

and if such horrendous players do exist is it realistic to expect them to be easily replaced when they (probably quickly) drop out of horseracing??

[thaskalos]

i think some smart posters here are skeptical of these "dick mitchell" 1.20+ long term roi with significant handle claims because they don't see what i call the "mirror" to these big winners; that being the big loser who is betting equal money every day and getting back forty cents on the dollar long term.

and if such horrendous players do exist is it realistic to expect them to be easily replaced when they (probably quickly) drop out of horseracing??

IMO...the main reason for doubting the late Dick Mitchell's extravagant ROI claims isn't the absence of the "mirror" losers. It's the fact that Mitchell eventually gave up the game and went back to teaching math...while his sidekick, the late Ron Ambrose, ended up driving a cab in Las Vegas.

You can get RICH with a 1.20+ pre-rebate ROI in today's full-card simulcasting era.

[Dave Schwartz]

IMO...the main reason for doubting the late Dick Mitchell's extravagant ROI claims isn't the absence of the "mirror" losers. It's the fact that Mitchell eventually gave up the game and went back to teaching math...while his sidekick, the late Ron Ambrose, ended up driving a cab in Las Vegas.


I was in contact with Ron Ambrose up until very close to the end. To my knowledge, he never drove a cab and lived out the last years of his life playing golf in Mexico. (Perhaps you are thinking of Tom Hambleton?)

Ron did tell me that he could no longer beat the game.


Dave

[098poi]

Rebates once and for all:

I posted my answer in another thread before seeing that the subject is still being discussed here.

A rebate is a reduction of cost basis. Period. They are not in and of themselves generally taxable. However, in the case of gambling, your taxable gain will now increase by the amount of the rebate (or loss will decrease by the same amount). Since you've reduced the cost of the wager by the amount of the rebate, your net at the end of the day is greater by the amount of the rebate. Wager $10K, get $1K in rebates and win $20K, you've effectively wagered $9K and gotten $20K back for a net taxable gain of $11K vs. the $10K you would have been taxed on had you not received a rebate.

You were not taxed on the rebate, you were taxed on the additional gain that resulted because of the rebate.

I actually understand this. Thanks for posting.

[proximity]

IMO...the main reason for doubting the late Dick Mitchell's extravagant ROI claims isn't the absence of the "mirror" losers. It's the fact that Mitchell eventually gave up the game and went back to teaching math...while his sidekick, the late Ron Ambrose, ended up driving a cab in Las Vegas.

You can get RICH with a 1.20+ pre-rebate ROI in today's full-card simulcasting era.



mitchellesque numbers in this tougher era. didn't mean anything personal against anyone. :)

[thaskalos]

I was in contact with Ron Ambrose up until very close to the end. To my knowledge, he never drove a cab and lived out the last years of his life playing golf in Mexico. (Perhaps you are thinking of Tom Hambleton?)

Ron did tell me that he could no longer beat the game.


Dave
Yes...my apologies. I got Ambrose and Hambleton mixed up.

[Track Collector]

Some thoughts regarding many of the posts here:

--- I am enjoying EMD4ME's posts here. As with any internet forum, one can choose to believe or not believe the claims made here. While some might see the premise of the thread as a bit of self-promotion, I can "understand" the natural tendency to want to share, especially given that it is SO hard to achieve success in this game. When detractors share their thoughts, I think EMD4ME needs to come to the realization that some folks are never going to be converted to believers, and that it is probably best to immediately cease dialog with those people.
--- Regardless of why one thinks the thread was started, one can still find nuggets of truth and info to improve their handicapping education.
--- Regardless of how one might define "knowing they are there", I totally agree with Thaskalos and others that it is a point in time, with no assurances for future/continued success.
--- I get the impression that EMD4ME is clearly in need of a dedicated and experienced tax professional, despite his belief that he pays more in taxes just to be safe. If he really wants to sleep better at night, I believe he needs to do this ASAP, as his possible incomplete tax knowledge "could" lead to some not so pleasant tax issues in the future. He or any others can pm me if they want the person I use. (He is highly knowledgeable, ethical, reasonably priced, and for the record, I would receive no compensation for a referral.). EMD4ME might also find out whether filing as a professional is a better thing to do for his specific situation. I know that his other full-time job does not necessarily preclude him from doing this as I successfully came thru an IRS audit a number of years ago which challenged this very premise.

[KennyG1]

My definition of "there" is not making a living betting, but getting to a point where I could win extra cash and build a self sustaining bankroll. I thought I was getting there after switching from wagering to playing online handicapping tournaments. In my first 340 tournaments I had an ROI of +43%...surely not a sustainable percentage, but enough of a sample size to think I would continue upwards. And then this past May, I started losing, and losing, and losing. I started second guessing my picks, and zigging where I should have zagged. In my next 79 tournaments, my ROI was -78%. :bang:

The icing on the cake was in August when the geniuses in NY government specifically made online horse racing tournaments illegal in the same bill that made other daily fantasy sports legal.

So I'm not there. I took a break to try and refresh myself, but my confidence is so shattered I worry I will never get close to there again.

[thespaah]

Who here can honestly say, I don't need to ever work again, not because they hit the lotto or have a monster real estate net income BUT because they can honestly say they can make a living on horse racing?

For reasons that are vital, do not ask me any questions, this is for everyone's open discussion. I, for certain reasons, can only play a limited role, if this thread has any life. Apologies in advance.

At the very least, I'd like to know why yes vs. why no someone is/vs. isn't a position to retire from this glorious game.
Not me. Don't have the budget.
I could in theory work diligently and make a couple spot plays every racing day, but I just don't have the capital on hand to make a go of it as an occupation.
I guess I am one of the (despised( by some large volume players) recreational horse player.
Yep, part of the great unwashed masses.
Ask me if I care. LOL

[thespaah]

Tax free until you get caught at least.
There are many ways one can bury income.
Step one. Don't spend money in ways that attract attention. If one wishes to buy a big ticket item such as a car, RV or boat, apply for a loan. DO NOT Pay cash. That's a red flag.
The easiest way to draw the attention of the authorities is to be flashy with spending....

[EMD4ME]

Some thoughts regarding many of the posts here:

--- I am enjoying EMD4ME's posts here. As with any internet forum, one can choose to believe or not believe the claims made here. While some might see the premise of the thread as a bit of self-promotion, I can "understand" the natural tendency to want to share, especially given that it is SO hard to achieve success in this game. When detractors share their thoughts, I think EMD4ME needs to come to the realization that some folks are never going to be converted to believers, and that it is probably best to immediately cease dialog with those people.
--- Regardless of why one thinks the thread was started, one can still find nuggets of truth and info to improve their handicapping education.
--- Regardless of how one might define "knowing they are there", I totally agree with Thaskalos and others that it is a point in time, with no assurances for future/continued success.
--- I get the impression that EMD4ME is clearly in need of a dedicated and experienced tax professional, despite his belief that he pays more in taxes just to be safe. If he really wants to sleep better at night, I believe he needs to do this ASAP, as his possible incomplete tax knowledge "could" lead to some not so pleasant tax issues in the future. He or any others can pm me if they want the person I use. (He is highly knowledgeable, ethical, reasonably priced, and for the record, I would receive no compensation for a referral.). EMD4ME might also find out whether filing as a professional is a better thing to do for his specific situation. I know that his other full-time job does not necessarily preclude him from doing this as I successfully came thru an IRS audit a number of years ago which challenged this very premise.

You're the second person to tell me this. The other is a CPA who bets over $2 Million a year.

He files a schedule C for his horse betting, despite having his accounting practice. I have refused to do so after reading what i did on IRS.GOV.

I may have literally overpaid tons of dollars in taxes by not doing so. :bang:

I'll PM you to discuss soon. Right after big weekend of horse races coming up!

Thank you Track Collector.

[lamboy]

You're the second person to tell me this. The other is a CPA who bets over $2 Million a year.

He files a schedule C for his horse betting, despite having his accounting practice. I have refused to do so after reading what i did on IRS.GOV.

I may have literally overpaid tons of dollars in taxes by not doing so. :bang:

I'll PM you to discuss soon. Right after big weekend of horse races coming up!

Thank you Track Collector.

I'm in the same boat as you. I believe you're talking about Al? lol, i should get him to introduce us.

[mountainman]

Some thoughts regarding many of the posts here:

--- I am enjoying EMD4ME's posts here. As with any internet forum, one can choose to believe or not believe the claims made here. While some might see the premise of the thread as a bit of self-promotion, I can "understand" the natural tendency to want to share, especially given that it is SO hard to achieve success in this game. When detractors share their thoughts, I think EMD4ME needs to come to the realization that some folks are never going to be converted to believers, and that it is probably best to immediately cease dialog with those people.
--- Regardless of why one thinks the thread was started, one can still find nuggets of truth and info to improve their handicapping education.
--- Regardless of how one might define "knowing they are there", I totally agree with Thaskalos and others that it is a point in time, with no assurances for future/continued success.
--- I get the impression that EMD4ME is clearly in need of a dedicated and experienced tax professional, despite his belief that he pays more in taxes just to be safe. If he really wants to sleep better at night, I believe he needs to do this ASAP, as his possible incomplete tax knowledge "could" lead to some not so pleasant tax issues in the future. He or any others can pm me if they want the person I use. (He is highly knowledgeable, ethical, reasonably priced, and for the record, I would receive no compensation for a referral.). EMD4ME might also find out whether filing as a professional is a better thing to do for his specific situation. I know that his other full-time job does not necessarily preclude him from doing this as I successfully came thru an IRS audit a number of years ago which challenged this very premise.

For the record, Emd strikes me as legit-even more passionate than arrogant. He seems very sharp, and his postings have the ring of truth.

The guy passes my smell test. And I'm well-known as an unrelenting skeptic. And a good judge of handicappers.

[lamboy]

For the record, Emd strikes me as legit-even more passionate than arrogant. He seems very sharp, and his postings have the ring of truth.

The guy passes my smell test. And I'm well-known as an unrelenting skeptic. And a good judge of handicappers.
not that you have to take my word for it but i'm familiar with the crowd that hangs out at NYRA's player clubs and Emd is legit.

[threegoldstars]

My definition of "there" is not making a living betting, but getting to a point where I could win extra cash and build a self sustaining bankroll. I thought I was getting there after switching from wagering to playing online handicapping tournaments. In my first 340 tournaments I had an ROI of +43%...surely not a sustainable percentage, but enough of a sample size to think I would continue upwards. And then this past May, I started losing, and losing, and losing. I started second guessing my picks, and zigging where I should have zagged. In my next 79 tournaments, my ROI was -78%. :bang:

The icing on the cake was in August when the geniuses in NY government specifically made online horse racing tournaments illegal in the same bill that made other daily fantasy sports legal.

So I'm not there. I took a break to try and refresh myself, but my confidence is so shattered I worry I will never get close to there again.

Thank you for your honest post. You clearly have the ability to put your ego aside and take personal accountability for your shortcomings; that is the first step towards success at anything, in my opinion.

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.

The truth is that for every insightful, technically knowledgeable, hard-working handicapper and bettor, if they ALWAYS played their A and B games, they would be long-term winners - perhaps not BIG winners, but winners nonetheless. But to most people's detriment, they enter into a no-fault-of-their-own losing streak, and it gets exacerbated by the failure to continue to play their A and B games.

The question then begs, what exactly gets them out of their A and B games and pushes them into their C, D, and F games? Because the truth is, if they NEVER knew the results of the races and never got to check their bankroll, they would never have reason to alter their games OTHER than to make improvements based, not on their bankrolls, but instead, on the quality of their play as measured by a factor that is NOT their bankroll.

When you look at your bankroll, what is it telling you? That you are the greatest person on Earth? That you are a degen loser? Well, it should not tell you anything. In a perfect world you would never look it at and you would just withdraw money periodically, knowing that the withdrawal would leave your bankroll with plenty of wagering money.

Believe me when I tell you (and I know this from being a coach!), your bankroll is the WRONG MEASURE OF SUCCESS. Your bankroll is your ego, and when you are playing with ego, you are almost assured of losing.

When you bet, your measure of success should be:

1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning);

2. the quality of your bet construction;

3. the quality of your physical bet-making (i.e. do you make errors when saying your bet to a clerk or phonebet operator, or do you make errors keying in your bets online).

If your quality of each of the three above is excellent, then two things will happen:

a. your bankroll will take care of itself (assuming you already have the level of handicapping, bet construction, and bet-making that is necessary to sustain a bankroll)

b. you will have no reason to look at your bankroll as a measure of success, and therefore, you will not be susceptible to the C, D, and F swings in the quality of your game (i.e. you will not be tilting money away).

Remember: your bankroll is your ego. When it's big, you are puffing up your chest and rocking your arms back and forth like King Kong. When it's decreasing, you are a loser. Neither is optimal, not even close.

Work on playing your best game more and more; and then continually work on improving. The rest takes care of itself.

And so, how do you know you have "arrived"? That's an easy question to answer. When you no longer measure success by the size of your bankroll, in other words, when you stop play egoically. I guarantee that this is the answer to EMD4ME's question.

Sincerely,

ThreeGoldStars

[EMD4ME]

I'm in the same boat as you. I believe you're talking about Al? lol, i should get him to introduce us.

YES, it is AL!

You on track Lambo? I sit 10 feet from him.

[EMD4ME]

For the record, Emd strikes me as legit-even more passionate than arrogant. He seems very sharp, and his postings have the ring of truth.

The guy passes my smell test. And I'm well-known as an unrelenting skeptic. And a good judge of handicappers.

Thank you kind sir. I feel the same way. And I don't blow smoke up anyone's toushy :D

My apologies if anyone think's I'm arrogant. I am NOT. I am super passionate.

The internet is not a true indicator of how I say some things. Tone is not apparent. If they come across mean or arrogant, they are not meant that way. :blush:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thank you kind sir. I feel the same way. And I don't blow smoke up anyone's toushy :D

My apologies if anyone think's I'm arrogant. I am NOT. I am super passionate.

The internet is not a true indicator of how I say some things. Tone is not apparent. If they come across mean or arrogant, they are not meant that way. :blush:

I agree with mountain man also EMD, keep on posting, and have a prosperous next season...you have done a lot in opening my eyes on what it takes to be a winner....thank you.

[lamboy]

YES, it is AL!

You on track Lambo? I sit 10 feet from him.
lol, spending time with the family. will catch u soon.


my advice to those who want to get "there":
1. study behavioral economics -- need to master the mental aspect
2. study data science - handicapping is nothing but trying to decipher data and transform it into information
3. balance your life

[Dave Schwartz]

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.


ThreeGoldStars,

All of your post was excellent. Level headed. Down to earth.

Shared on Facebook, tweeted. Everything I could do. #HandicappingCoach

[ReplayRandall]

my advice to those who want to get "there":
1. study behavioral economics -- need to master the mental aspect
2. study data science - handicapping is nothing but trying to decipher data and transform it into information
3. balance your life

Much like a baseball player, you're going to make an out 7-8 times for every 10 times at the plate. If a ballplayer hits .300 consistently, they're considered a great player. The same goes for a horse-player, as long as they don't hit nothing but singles. Must be able to periodically "crush" a race out of the park, to be an ROI long-term winner....

[threegoldstars]

ThreeGoldStars,

All of your post was excellent. Level headed. Down to earth.

Shared on Facebook, tweeted. Everything I could do. #HandicappingCoach

Thank you, Dave. I thought of you when I was writing it, to tell you the truth. I know you think along the same lines.

Hope all is well with you and Beth and that you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Much like a baseball player, you're going to make an out 7-8 times for every 10 times at the plate. If a ballplayer hits .300 consistently, they're considered a great player. The same goes for a horse-player, as long as they don't hit nothing but singles. Must be able to periodically "crush" a race out of the park, to be an ROI long-term winner....

This is how I have always thought about this game. And in so many parallel ways. I add cash rate and ROI to get a horseplayer OPS. BC weekend was a 1.846. Ain't always like that though! The helpless feeling when losing is what makes most of us apprehensive and humbled enough to not try it full time.

[lamboy]

Much like a baseball player, you're going to make an out 7-8 times for every 10 times at the plate. If a ballplayer hits .300 consistently, they're considered a great player. The same goes for a horse-player, as long as they don't hit nothing but singles. Must be able to periodically "crush" a race out of the park, to be an ROI long-term winner....

RR, agreed, however it also depends on your asset allocation. lol, i don't have to tell u that those averages don't work in tournaments. i grew up learning trip handicapping from Cornman, Mellos, Kipness et al. However, i realized that it didn't scale with the advent of internet wagering and tourneys which is how i arrived at data science. this affords me more leisure time since i can miss weeks of racing at a time without feeling lost when i pick it back up.

[thaskalos]

Thank you for your honest post. You clearly have the ability to put your ego aside and take personal accountability for your shortcomings; that is the first step towards success at anything, in my opinion.

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.

The truth is that for every insightful, technically knowledgeable, hard-working handicapper and bettor, if they ALWAYS played their A and B games, they would be long-term winners - perhaps not BIG winners, but winners nonetheless. But to most people's detriment, they enter into a no-fault-of-their-own losing streak, and it gets exacerbated by the failure to continue to play their A and B games.

The question then begs, what exactly gets them out of their A and B games and pushes them into their C, D, and F games? Because the truth is, if they NEVER knew the results of the races and never got to check their bankroll, they would never have reason to alter their games OTHER than to make improvements based, not on their bankrolls, but instead, on the quality of their play as measured by a factor that is NOT their bankroll.

When you look at your bankroll, what is it telling you? That you are the greatest person on Earth? That you are a degen loser? Well, it should not tell you anything. In a perfect world you would never look it at and you would just withdraw money periodically, knowing that the withdrawal would leave your bankroll with plenty of wagering money.

Believe me when I tell you (and I know this from being a coach!), your bankroll is the WRONG MEASURE OF SUCCESS. Your bankroll is your ego, and when you are playing with ego, you are almost assured of losing.

When you bet, your measure of success should be:

1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning);

2. the quality of your bet construction;

3. the quality of your physical bet-making (i.e. do you make errors when saying your bet to a clerk or phonebet operator, or do you make errors keying in your bets online).

If your quality of each of the three above is excellent, then two things will happen:

a. your bankroll will take care of itself (assuming you already have the level of handicapping, bet construction, and bet-making that is necessary to sustain a bankroll)

b. you will have no reason to look at your bankroll as a measure of success, and therefore, you will not be susceptible to the C, D, and F swings in the quality of your game (i.e. you will not be tilting money away).

Remember: your bankroll is your ego. When it's big, you are puffing up your chest and rocking your arms back and forth like King Kong. When it's decreasing, you are a loser. Neither is optimal, not even close.

Work on playing your best game more and more; and then continually work on improving. The rest takes care of itself.

And so, how do you know you have "arrived"? That's an easy question to answer. When you no longer measure success by the size of your bankroll, in other words, when you stop play egoically. I guarantee that this is the answer to EMD4ME's question.

Sincerely,

ThreeGoldStars

Your post is the reason why I am always amazed when I see some otherwise knowledgeable horseplayers proclaiming that they "really, really hate to lose" in this game. Don't these players realize that we are all destined to "lose" the great majority of the bets that we make at the track...and, doesn't this mean that we should all strive to be "great losers"...instead of being deathly afraid of ripping up a bunch of losing tickets? Doesn't this "really, really hating to lose" attitude naturally lead to the sort of frustration which causes players to lose confidence in themselves and their methods...at a time when self-confidence is most demanded?

Gambling isn't like golf or tennis...where the "right shot" always brings the "right result". In gambling, the right shot usually brings forth a NEGATIVE result...while the WRONG shot sometimes leaves us laughing all the way to the bank. THOSE are the times when the gambler's reasoning powers are most necessary...so he could properly assess the real situation that he finds himself in...in order to avoid the unpleasantries that self-delusion leads to in gambling.

Don't "really, really hate to lose"...I say. Learn to EMBRACE losing...because "losing" is destined to forever remain the serious gambler's constant companion. "Losing" is a great teacher...whose lessons aren't what they initially appear to be. "Losing" leads to "self-knowledge"...without which, all OTHER "knowledge" remains empty and unsatisfying.

I enjoyed your post so much, threegoldstars...that I am giving you two more stars. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[ReplayRandall]

However, i realized that it didn't scale with the advent of internet wagering and tourneys which is how i arrived at data science. this affords me more leisure time since i can miss weeks of racing at a time without feeling lost when i pick it back up.

Great point for players on the go, and not tethered to the daily grind of replays, like myself...:cool:

[lamboy]

agreed, one should study game theory. those of us who play poker understand that playing well is more important then the results. i feel it's actually worthwhile to follow poker players to understand how much work goes into studying and trying to plug holes in their game.

[lamboy]

Great point for players on the go, and not tethered to the daily grind of replays, like myself...:cool:

not true, u don't need to deep dive into programming, statistics or advanced math. take a high level look at the different algorithms used. they will shed light on how to approach different problems. different tracks and races need different approaches to figure out the outcome

[threegoldstars]

I enjoyed your post so much, threegoldstars...that I am giving you two more stars. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Wow, thanks, Thaskalos. Glad you enjoyed it!

[threegoldstars]

agreed, one should study game theory. those of us who play poker understand that playing well is more important then the results. i feel it's actually worthwhile to follow poker players to understand how much work goes into studying and trying to plug holes in their game.

Yes, plugging leaks is important in ANYTHING you want to do well. As for game theory, while instructive in poker, I am not sure how much it will help a horseracing handicapper/bettor, unless perhaps you view adjustment to the masses akin to (for example) adjusting to a person that is 3-betting you from the BB with a wider range because you have been attempting to steal his blinds from the button every round.

Perhaps you have a specific situation in mind with regards to horse racing, Lamboy. If so, I'd enjoy reading it. Thx.

[rsetup]

More sage advice: deep exploration of complicated machine learning algorithms. I laughed

[Cratos]

Thank you for your honest post. You clearly have the ability to put your ego aside and take personal accountability for your shortcomings; that is the first step towards success at anything, in my opinion.

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.

The truth is that for every insightful, technically knowledgeable, hard-working handicapper and bettor, if they ALWAYS played their A and B games, they would be long-term winners - perhaps not BIG winners, but winners nonetheless. But to most people's detriment, they enter into a no-fault-of-their-own losing streak, and it gets exacerbated by the failure to continue to play their A and B games.

The question then begs, what exactly gets them out of their A and B games and pushes them into their C, D, and F games? Because the truth is, if they NEVER knew the results of the races and never got to check their bankroll, they would never have reason to alter their games OTHER than to make improvements based, not on their bankrolls, but instead, on the quality of their play as measured by a factor that is NOT their bankroll.

When you look at your bankroll, what is it telling you? That you are the greatest person on Earth? That you are a degen loser? Well, it should not tell you anything. In a perfect world you would never look it at and you would just withdraw money periodically, knowing that the withdrawal would leave your bankroll with plenty of wagering money.

Believe me when I tell you (and I know this from being a coach!), your bankroll is the WRONG MEASURE OF SUCCESS. Your bankroll is your ego, and when you are playing with ego, you are almost assured of losing.

When you bet, your measure of success should be:

1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning);

2. the quality of your bet construction;

3. the quality of your physical bet-making (i.e. do you make errors when saying your bet to a clerk or phonebet operator, or do you make errors keying in your bets online).

If your quality of each of the three above is excellent, then two things will happen:

a. your bankroll will take care of itself (assuming you already have the level of handicapping, bet construction, and bet-making that is necessary to sustain a bankroll)

b. you will have no reason to look at your bankroll as a measure of success, and therefore, you will not be susceptible to the C, D, and F swings in the quality of your game (i.e. you will not be tilting money away).

Remember: your bankroll is your ego. When it's big, you are puffing up your chest and rocking your arms back and forth like King Kong. When it's decreasing, you are a loser. Neither is optimal, not even close.

Work on playing your best game more and more; and then continually work on improving. The rest takes care of itself.

And so, how do you know you have "arrived"? That's an easy question to answer. When you no longer measure success by the size of your bankroll, in other words, when you stop play egoically. I guarantee that this is the answer to EMD4ME's question.

Sincerely,

ThreeGoldStars
Excellent post; parts of it remined me of the advice given to me when I was in “B-School.”

[Dave Schwartz]

More sage advice: deep exploration of complicated machine learning algorithms. I laughed

Yes, make sure that you disparage anything you don't understand or is too complex for you.


Aren't you the guy that also laughed when I said I wrote neural nets from scratch?

[ReplayRandall]

take a high level look at the different algorithms used.

What's "higher" than HTR??...:cool:

[lamboy]

Yes, plugging leaks is important in ANYTHING you want to do well. As for game theory, while instructive in poker, I am not sure how much it will help a horseracing handicapper/bettor, unless perhaps you view adjustment to the masses akin to (for example) adjusting to a person that is 3-betting you from the BB with a wider range because you have been attempting to steal his blinds from the button every round.

Perhaps you have a specific situation in mind with regards to horse racing, Lamboy. If so, I'd enjoy reading it. Thx.

correct, i'm not referring to any particular strategem but adjusting to the masses. IMHO, the primary insight of game theory is the importance of focusing on others–of putting yourself in the shoes of other players and trying to play out all the reactions to their actions as far ahead as possible.

[lamboy]

What's "higher" than HTR??...:cool:
that's not "higher". all software products are an attempt to either abstract data or provide some information. if you think about drf, timeformus, bris etc., they are similar to the dashboard on your car. they attempt to display all the pertinent info.( full disclosure: i've been a subscriber of each in the past). i've also taken a look at all the handicapping software products available and finally decided i was better off creating my own.

[rsetup]

Yes, make sure that you disparage anything you don't understand or is too complex for you.


Aren't you the guy that also laughed when I said I wrote neural nets from scratch?I model for a living, Dave. And I have a MS in Computer Science. So we can dismiss the latter. And, as to the former: my issues are with suggestions that novices can easily use these methods. They can't. Hope that clears it up for you.

[ReplayRandall]

that's not "higher". all software products are an attempt to either abstract data or provide some information. if you think about drf, timeformus, bris etc., they are similar to the dashboard on your car. they attempt to display all the pertinent info.( full disclosure: i've been a subscriber of each in the past). i've also taken a look at all the handicapping software products available and finally decided i was better off creating my own.

I enjoy enthusiasm like yours when dealing with someone that's comfortable with their own programs/models. But we know each other, don't we Phil?......I love a feisty opponent. See you on the battlefield, good luck.

[thaskalos]

I enjoy enthusiasm like yours when dealing with someone that's comfortable with their own programs/models. But we know each other, don't we Phil?......I love a feisty opponent. See you on the battlefield, good luck.
Phil is LAMBOGUY...and you are now talking to LAMBOY.

[ReplayRandall]

Phil is LAMBOGUY...and you are now talking to LAMBOY.

Trust me, we play tourneys against one another.....His name is ALSO Phil, but thanks for the uninformed correction.

[cj]

Phil is LAMBOGUY...and you are now talking to LAMBOY.

We sure it isn't Lamboguy forgetting his password again?

[Cratos]

that's not "higher". all software products are an attempt to either abstract data or provide some information. if you think about drf, timeformus, bris etc., they are similar to the dashboard on your car. they attempt to display all the pertinent info.( full disclosure: i've been a subscriber of each in the past). i've also taken a look at all the handicapping software products available and finally decided i was better off creating my own.

Good for you

[lamboy]

Trust me, we play tourneys against one another.....His name is ALSO Phil, but thanks for the uninformed correction.

correct, RR and I know each other from tournament play.

[lamboy]

I model for a living, Dave. And I have a MS in Computer Science. So we can dismiss the latter. And, as to the former: my issues are with suggestions that novices can easily use these methods. They can't. Hope that clears it up for you.
i always suspected u were into modeling based on your moniker. i personally prefer python. ;)

as you know, modelling also requires subject matter expertise. imho, i think a comptehensive understanding of racing is probably harder then mastering data science.

[Dave Schwartz]

I model for a living, Dave. And I have a MS in Computer Science. So we can dismiss the latter. And, as to the former: my issues are with suggestions that novices can easily use these methods. They can't. Hope that clears it up for you.


Now, personally, I am a self-educated guy. Sure, I have a hundred or so college hours, but truthfully was never going to be an architect anyway.

But I must tell you that around here an MS in computer science is a little thin. There are lots of PhDs and even a couple of quants, so waving that mighty MS as your flag is just plain, unimpressive.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: I assure you that I have, in fact, written 9 neural nets "from scratch."

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/PA/TBrain_Cover.jpg

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/PA/TBrain_back.jpg

[FakeNameChanged]

Thank you for your honest post. You clearly have the ability to put your ego aside and take personal accountability for your shortcomings; that is the first step towards success at anything, in my opinion.

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.

The truth is that for every insightful, technically knowledgeable, hard-working handicapper and bettor, if they ALWAYS played their A and B games, they would be long-term winners - perhaps not BIG winners, but winners nonetheless. But to most people's detriment, they enter into a no-fault-of-their-own losing streak, and it gets exacerbated by the failure to continue to play their A and B games.

The question then begs, what exactly gets them out of their A and B games and pushes them into their C, D, and F games? Because the truth is, if they NEVER knew the results of the races and never got to check their bankroll, they would never have reason to alter their games OTHER than to make improvements based, not on their bankrolls, but instead, on the quality of their play as measured by a factor that is NOT their bankroll.

When you look at your bankroll, what is it telling you? That you are the greatest person on Earth? That you are a degen loser? Well, it should not tell you anything. In a perfect world you would never look it at and you would just withdraw money periodically, knowing that the withdrawal would leave your bankroll with plenty of wagering money.

Believe me when I tell you (and I know this from being a coach!), your bankroll is the WRONG MEASURE OF SUCCESS. Your bankroll is your ego, and when you are playing with ego, you are almost assured of losing.

When you bet, your measure of success should be:

1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning);

2. the quality of your bet construction;

3. the quality of your physical bet-making (i.e. do you make errors when saying your bet to a clerk or phonebet operator, or do you make errors keying in your bets online).

If your quality of each of the three above is excellent, then two things will happen:

a. your bankroll will take care of itself (assuming you already have the level of handicapping, bet construction, and bet-making that is necessary to sustain a bankroll)

b. you will have no reason to look at your bankroll as a measure of success, and therefore, you will not be susceptible to the C, D, and F swings in the quality of your game (i.e. you will not be tilting money away).

Remember: your bankroll is your ego. When it's big, you are puffing up your chest and rocking your arms back and forth like King Kong. When it's decreasing, you are a loser. Neither is optimal, not even close.

Work on playing your best game more and more; and then continually work on improving. The rest takes care of itself.

And so, how do you know you have "arrived"? That's an easy question to answer. When you no longer measure success by the size of your bankroll, in other words, when you stop play egoically. I guarantee that this is the answer to EMD4ME's question.

Sincerely,

ThreeGoldStars

This is a GREAT Post. I will cut and paste into a file to read often. It's very believable that you are a successful coach. Thanks for this.

[Robert Fischer]

lol, spending time with the family. will catch u soon.


my advice to those who want to get "there":
1. study behavioral economics -- need to master the mental aspect
2. study data science - handicapping is nothing but trying to decipher data and transform it into information
3. balance your life

good advice Lamboy :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

my basic recipe

1. Use 'INSIGHT' to see and understand the system. Without insight you are lost. There are different degrees of insight and understanding. An analogy to driving; A.Lost & asking locals for directions, vs. B.Having directions from a map, vs. C.Having a smartphone GPS directions, vs. D.Your home neighborhood.

Then your 'CHARACTER' is strong with a mastery of the 4 cardinal virtues:
= prudence, justice, temperance, fortitude.

Prudence = GOOD JUDGEMENT = being able to choose, and then choosing the best.
Justice = FAIR AND REASONABLE = taking your slice , balancing greed and fear.
Temperance = SELF CONTROL = behaving rationally, continuing along your 'path' to success rather than partaking in short term negative impulses.
Fortitude = STRENGTH IN ADVERSITY = bravery, composure, cool under pressure, Resourcefulness!
Finally, use 'EMOTION' as a sort of positive hybrid 'fuel system', to give you even more strength as you are propelled along your path. This can be easily done with emotions such as motivation or drive, but the value comes from turning fear, stress, anxiety etc... into 'positive fuel'. Connected to Temperance and Fortitude, but important enough to mention.

[Cratos]

lol, spending time with the family. will catch u soon.


my advice to those who want to get "there":
1. study behavioral economics -- need to master the mental aspect
2. study data science - handicapping is nothing but trying to decipher data and transform it into information
3. balance your life

study behavioral economics -- need to master the mental aspect - Does econometrics come to mind?

study data science - handicapping is nothing but trying to decipher data and transform it into information - This is where the horseracing industry have fell behind; it probably have the worst data reporting system of the major sports.

-

[threegoldstars]

This is a GREAT Post. I will cut and paste into a file to read often. It's very believable that you are a successful coach. Thanks for this.

Thank you, sir. Glad to be of some help and maybe even of some small measure of inspiration.

[steveb]

Thank you, sir. Glad to be of some help and maybe even of some small measure of inspiration.

it was a very good post and deserving of praise, but i would take issue with....."do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning"

i assign probs(well, i once did), but the best i could hope for, is that i did it better than the crowd.
there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned.
there is only less wrong.

[Cratos]

it was a very good post and deserving of praise, but i would take issue with....."do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning"

i assign probs(well, i once did), but the best i could hope for, is that i did it better than the crowd.
there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned.
there is only less wrong.
Since a horse’s chance of winning is a future occurrence, every bettor assigns a probability to the horse they chose to bet whether it is done formally or informally; the poster’s inquiry is whether it is done correctly?

Per your own admission, you have assigned probabilities to your expected outcomes of a horserace and if so, you will understand that the “correctness” of a probability is a post occurrence verification whether it is a horseracing outcome or anything else expected to occur in the future.

[steveb]

Since a horse’s chance of winning is a future occurrence, every bettor assigns a probability to the horse they chose to bet whether it is done formally or informally; the poster’s inquiry is whether it is done correctly?

Per your own admission, you have assigned probabilities to your expected outcomes of a horserace and if so, you will understand that the “correctness” of a probability is a post occurrence verification whether it is a horseracing outcome or anything else expected to occur in the future.

what is that in english please?

as best an answer as i can muster....

every bettor, does NOT assign a probability, in fact most of them probably don't, or would not know how to.
i have seen examples on here of how some 'experts' do it, and it is nothing more than mathematical equations, with no regards to reality.

and even if your even money chances wins 50% of the time(they either have to win more than 50% of the time or you get more than evens for them, if you want to profit), or your 4/1 chance wins 20% of the races, then all it means in that you were right over THAT many races.

so lets say you priced the horse at 4/1 and you got 6/1 and it won.
but what was the correct probability for it?
was it .5 , was it .33, .25 ,.2 .....how can you know????

it's not like die or roulette or, or, or.......

a 10 horse race does not mean 10 horses with a 10% chance.

so we have a fair idea of what we think each horse in the race should be as far as probs go.
but you DON'T know, neither before the race, nor after it.
if you are throwing a die, then you know you have a 1/6 chance.
you CAN'T have that certainty in racing because it is incalculable

[cj]

it was a very good post and deserving of praise, but i would take issue with....."do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning"

i assign probs(well, i once did), but the best i could hope for, is that i did it better than the crowd.
there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned.
there is only less wrong.

This is an excellent post. I've found similar and posted the same here before though not worded as directly, i.e. as well.

[ARAZI91]

great post CJ about excellent posting - i would have posted something in the past about great posting but as this is my first post thought that your post about that excellent post was a great post - so my first post ever is to say that your post about that excellent post - was great :) :) :)
BTW anything SteveB posts is an excellent post - the guy is an underground legend (worldwide) in speed figure handicapping and methodology :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: well worth listening too in my humble opinion and once again - great post about an excellent post :)

[johnhenry81]

You are never "there" and as Thomas Jefferson may have said, "give me life, liberty, and the pursuit of handicapping"

BTW, Jefferson loved horses and the races.

[Overlay]

there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned. there is only less wrong.

every bettor, does NOT assign a probability, in fact most of them probably don't, or would not know how to.

Even with the limitations pointed out in the first excerpted quote above, the equally valid point in the second quote above is what makes the effort to determine probabilities (however it is done) well worth it (in my opinion). And, to me, the use of performance statistics is one way to reduce the degree of error or uncertainty involved.

[ARAZI91]

From the OP's original premise using the word "there" implies an "arriving" or a state of travel or journey (from here to "there") . In my experience this is a fallacy of the mind or the ego and usually the start of a downward spiral.
When you start to sit back and think you have "made it" as a Horseplayer , gambler , investor (whatever) the game usually turns back around and bites you on the arse. Its in its wild nature as an ever evolving, multi-complex never ending beast and cannot be tamed by most. The Wise pitch the games own nature against itself (be contrarian)but never do they lie back thinking its licked without paying a price.

[FakeNameChanged]

great post CJ about excellent posting - i would have posted something in the past about great posting but as this is my first post thought that your post about that excellent post was a great post - so my first post ever is to say that your post about that excellent post - was great :) :) :)
BTW anything SteveB posts is an excellent post - the guy is an underground legend (worldwide) in speed figure handicapping and methodology :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: well worth listening too in my humble opinion and once again - great post about an excellent post :)
So you've waited or lurked for six months, and this is what you've come up with? Very positive. Must be related to rsetup.

[classhandicapper]

I consider "probabilities of winning" to be very rough estimates. I go back and forth about whether assigning them for each horse is worth the trouble.

After I handicap a race, I usually have a horse in mind I am interested in playing because I think I know something about him that other people may not know or at that they will under appreciate. I don't really bother spending too much time assigning probabilities to the other horses.

If the odds on my horse or one of the other contenders seems crazy to me as the race approaches, it sort of leaps off the page at me. In fact, if I don't feel "the odds on this horse are crazy", I usually don't get involved because there's probably not enough value/margin of safety to make a bet worthwhile. If you are experienced, I think you just sort of "know" when the odds seem attractive and why you are getting that price.

Yesterday I loved Gun Runner. I thought he either had rough trips, was in a tough spot, or disliked the conditions in most of his recent races. I thought it was very likely he was better than he looked and going to get a great trip yesterday (wound up better than I expected when the speed didn't break well). Plus, he was still moving forward. I thought I was going to get 4-1 and was expecting to make a prime play. I didn't crunch any numbers or make an odds line on him, but imo at 2-1 he simply wasn't worth a bet in that field.

[threegoldstars]

it was a very good post and deserving of praise, but i would take issue with....."do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning"

i assign probs(well, i once did), but the best i could hope for, is that i did it better than the crowd.
there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned.
there is only less wrong.

Certainly, people have different methods...I probably should have left #1 at "the quality of your handicapping" and omitted "(i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning)" so as not to create confusion.

[ARAZI91]

Nope - dont know rsetup (never will) and added a lighthearted non-offensive post to proceedings (sue me) - for the last six month ive been drunk. i just recently regained my sanity and am acclimatising to normality but thats not your burden my friend - BTW Steveb is still a legend and when he talks (if you want to really learn ) i advise people to listen - that was the main point of the post (backing up CJs post about stevebs post) Why did it rattle your cage so much.

[Cratos]

Certainly, people have different methods...I probably should have left #1 at "the quality of your handicapping" and omitted "(i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning)" so as not to create confusion.
No, you were correct initially because decisions knowingly and conscientiously made before the running of a race are PROBABILISTIC even if a number between 0 and 1 are not assigned; this is a fundamental concept in probability theory.

Therefore, to “say there is NO correct as far probs in horse racing are concerned. there is only less wrong” is ambiguous because “less wrong” is determined only after the race is over which is by either the formal or informal assignment of probability.

[DeltaLover]

Trying to estimate the win probabilities of each starter in a race is not useful for betting purposes. The unknown factors are so many and the luck effect so great, that it is impossible to create a useful probability distribution for the winner of the race. The best you can do is to mimic the behavior of the public and get close to the real odds line. More than this, even if it was possible to know the win probability of a horse in advance, this information would not had been very useful as the final payouts are never known until the race is over.

[cj]

Trying to estimate the win probabilities of each starter in a race is not useful for betting purposes. The unknown factors are so many and the luck effect so great, that it is impossible to create a useful probability distribution for the winner of the race. The best you can do is to mimic the behavior of the public and get close to the real odds line. More than this, even if it was possible to know the win probability of a horse in advance, this information would not had been very useful as the final payouts are never known until the race is over.

I think the best effect of an odds line is it gives a bettor some consistency and takes away a lot of the indecision that paralyzes many.

[DeltaLover]

I think the best effect of an odds line is it gives a bettor some consistency and takes away a lot of the indecision that paralyzes many.

I do not disagree what what you are saying here of course but my point is that the "fair" odds line is relatively easy to construct and marginally useful for betting.

[steveb]

Nope - dont know rsetup (never will) and added a lighthearted non-offensive post to proceedings (sue me) - for the last six month ive been drunk. i just recently regained my sanity and am acclimatising to normality but thats not your burden my friend - BTW Steveb is still a legend and when he talks (if you want to really learn ) i advise people to listen - that was the main point of the post (backing up CJs post about stevebs post) Why did it rattle your cage so much.


i dunno who you are arazi191, but i have deduced you are from that same great country i live in.
do i know you?

anyway, will you please stop embarrassing me, i am just a guy that followed horse racing for a long time, with no special talents, other than an obsession with times.
and an inclination to say what i think, and think about what i said later! :confused:

[ultracapper]

I think the best effect of an odds line is it gives a bettor some consistency and takes away a lot of the indecision that paralyzes many.

I could write a thesis in response to this. Paralysis evolving into decisive action, even if that decision is to walk away, was a very big step for me.

[steveb]

Trying to estimate the win probabilities of each starter in a race is not useful for betting purposes. The unknown factors are so many and the luck effect so great, that it is impossible to create a useful probability distribution for the winner of the race. The best you can do is to mimic the behavior of the public and get close to the real odds line. More than this, even if it was possible to know the win probability of a horse in advance, this information would not had been very useful as the final payouts are never known until the race is over.

oh well, there are some very rich people that should have known better!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't think I am "There" because I am not in a position to be able to put 500K or more into game on an annual basis. And I won't for several more years so I don't stress about it and am content to take my yearly slice of the pie and enjoy the process. I at least trust my judgement, flaws and all knowing this is a very difficult game and every winning day should be savored. Seeing some of you stuck on complete mistrust of the inaccuracies of any probability exercise is painful because I know and admire and respect you. Our own individual judgement is the reality that the rest of the game revolves around. We are the center of our playing universe. We can be flawed and still win at this game and it doesn't negate each other out IMO. I am not there monetarily and I can live with that. I know my head is at least in the right place. And I think plenty of you are far ahead of me in this game.

[ARAZI91]

i dunno who you are arazi191, but i have deduced you are from that same great country i live in.
do i know you?

anyway, will you please stop embarrassing me, i am just a guy that followed horse racing for a long time, with no special talents, other than an obsession with times.
and an inclination to say what i think, and think about what i said later! :confused:

hi mrB - first off sorry no embarrassment intended and no i am not from the great Ausland - UK actually - No you dont know me but i too have been obsessed lifelong by time and timesin relation to horse racing. I was once shown some things i believe came from you and after filling in the blanks (after some serious work on the data) used it to great advantage against British bookmakers - but that was a different time. It changed the way i look and rate this great game but i like you no longer play much any more. Just an admirer from afar. Once again sir i apologise if it caused you embarrassment , it was not intended that way.

Kind Regards
Arazi91

[cj]

I could write a thesis in response to this. Paralysis evolving into decisive action, even if that decision is to walk away, was a very big step for me.

I imagine nearly everyone has been there at some level.

[steveb]

hi mrB - first off sorry no embarrassment intended and no i am not from the great Ausland - UK actually - No you dont know me but i too have been obsessed lifelong by time and timesin relation to horse racing. I was once shown some things i believe came from you and after filling in the blanks (after some serious work on the data) used it to great advantage against British bookmakers - but that was a different time. It changed the way i look and rate this great game but i like you no longer play much any more. Just an admirer from afar. Once again sir i apologise if it caused you embarrassment , it was not intended that way.

Kind Regards
Arazi91

thanks for those words arazi, but now i am wondering who showed you my stuff!!

[steveb]

I imagine nearly everyone has been there at some level.

YES, guilty as charged

[Robert Fischer]

Trying to estimate the win probabilities of each starter in a race is not useful for betting purposes. The unknown factors are so many and the luck effect so great, that it is impossible to create a useful probability distribution for the winner of the race. The best you can do is to mimic the behavior of the public and get close to the real odds line. More than this, even if it was possible to know the win probability of a horse in advance, this information would not had been very useful as the final payouts are never known until the race is over.

You have to do it.
Whether it's directly or indirectly.

have to estimate the price and the probability

maybe you just feel a horse is a near lock, and he's 2-1 or 8-5, so you bet him.

Maybe a rare race has a horse who is 3/5 that you hate.

You aren't setting probabilities for everyone in every race, but you recognize patterns that indicate value.

[rsetup]

So you've waited or lurked for six months, and this is what you've come up with? Very positive. Must be related to rsetup.

Seems like I struck a nerve with the technically/analytically challenged engineer.

Where was your degree from? :lol:

[Cratos]

You have to do it.
Whether it's directly or indirectly.

have to estimate the price and the probability

maybe you just feel a horse is a near lock, and he's 2-1 or 8-5, so you bet him.

Maybe a rare race has a horse who is 3/5 that you hate.

You aren't setting probabilities for everyone in every race, but you recognize patterns that indicate value.
Your post is very straightforward and to the point.

It clearly depicts the difference between odds and probability.

When we view the tote board at the racetrack for a race we are viewing a ratio; which is the ratio of the number of dollars wagered by bettors of the race who think that a horse in the race can win to the number of dollars wagered by bettors who think it cannot win.

On the other hand, the probability of a horse winning is the chance given to the horse to win by the bettor(s) and is typically independent of the tote board odds in a race.

While not the same, the two words, odds and probability often are conflated in lay discussions; and particularly within this thread.

[EMD4ME]

From the OP's original premise using the word "there" implies an "arriving" or a state of travel or journey (from here to "there") . In my experience this is a fallacy of the mind or the ego and usually the start of a downward spiral.
When you start to sit back and think you have "made it" as a Horseplayer , gambler , investor (whatever) the game usually turns back around and bites you on the arse. Its in its wild nature as an ever evolving, multi-complex never ending beast and cannot be tamed by most. The Wise pitch the games own nature against itself (be contrarian)but never do they lie back thinking its licked without paying a price.

I spend more hours that I can count, on the work needed to be done, to stay afloat in this game. Trust me, :lol: , ain't no sitting back and thinking I made "it" in this game.

This game is very humbling. You can line it all up for a score and then BAMN, 1 stupid assistant starter costs you a million.

I was just trying to inspire some additional interaction from the crowd here.

[rsetup]

I spend more hours that I can count, on the work needed to be done, to stay afloat in this game. Trust me, :lol: , ain't no sitting back and thinking I made "it" in this game.

This game is very humbling. You can line it all up for a score and then BAMN, 1 stupid assistant starter costs you a million.

I was just trying to inspire some additional interaction from the crowd here.

Chris Davis got robbed of 4 or 5 home runs in 2015 yet he still won the AL home run championship with 47. And then signed a lucrative free agent contract with Baltimore.

[Robert Fischer]

I spend more hours that I can count, on the work needed to be done, to stay afloat in this game. Trust me, :lol: , ain't no sitting back and thinking I made "it" in this game.

This game is very humbling. You can line it all up for a score and then BAMN, 1 stupid assistant starter costs you a million.

I was just trying to inspire some additional interaction from the crowd here.

You KNOW you are THERE, EMD.

you love when the track handicappers haven't dug as deep as you have. When you have a single or a 'survive' race that everyone else is playing like a typical race.

The mastery is coming up next. When it doesn't matter if the assistant starter or the jockey messes up. You've already won. The individual results are trivial.

[EMD4ME]

You KNOW you are THERE, EMD.

you love when the track handicappers haven't dug as deep as you have. When you have a single or a 'survive' race that everyone else is playing like a typical race.

The mastery is coming up next. When it doesn't matter if the assistant starter or the jockey messes up. You've already won. The individual results are trivial.

Today, I crushed the 7 in the 2nd race. He had, to say the least, a domino effect of poor racing luck.

I was disappointed he lost BUT I knew it was the right bet. Especially at decent odds.

There is a calm feelng knowing, if you keep working at it, the e-mail's will come (reminders of follow up horses), the right odds will pop on a live horse and the consistent winning tickets will be aplomb.

Racing luck tends to reward the prepared in the long term, at least IMHO.

[EasyGoer89]

I spend more hours that I can count, on the work needed to be done, to stay afloat in this game. Trust me, :lol: , ain't no sitting back and thinking I made "it" in this game.

This game is very humbling. You can line it all up for a score and then BAMN, 1 stupid assistant starter costs you a million.

I was just trying to inspire some additional interaction from the crowd here.

You stack up decades of experience, decades of pain that propels you to higher levels and then when you wake up the next Morning, unlike hall of famers in sports and unlike academy award winners in Hollywood, you wake up at square one. Nothing you did the day before or the decade before means anything at all. We are all equals when the sun rises on a new handicapping day.

[ReplayRandall]

We are all equals when the sun rises on a new handicapping day.

We are equals only in the sense of LUCK, each new day. Those who have built a superior foundational platform from years of hard work, will get the money in the long run.....But, when talking about just ONE day of racing, anything can happen for anyone.

[steveb]

Your post is very straightforward and to the point.

It clearly depicts the difference between odds and probability.

When we view the tote board at the racetrack for a race we are viewing a ratio; which is the ratio of the number of dollars wagered by bettors of the race who think that a horse in the race can win to the number of dollars wagered by bettors who think it cannot win.

On the other hand, the probability of a horse winning is the chance given to the horse to win by the bettor(s) and is typically independent of the tote board odds in a race.

While not the same, the two words, odds and probability often are conflated in lay discussions; and particularly within this thread.

jeepers, you crack me up sometimes cratos.

if i have something at a prob of .5 then i think its odds should be evens(or better)

to me, simply 2 ways of saying the SAME THING.

[steveb]

You KNOW you are THERE, EMD.

you love when the track handicappers haven't dug as deep as you have. When you have a single or a 'survive' race that everyone else is playing like a typical race.



may i please ask what a 'track handicapper' is?
and what their role is?

[EasyGoer89]

We are equals only in the sense of LUCK, each new day. Those who have built a superior foundational platform from years of hard work, will get the money in the long run.....But, when talking about just ONE day of racing, anything can happen for anyone.

No doubt, good points, i'd rather wake up me than wake up as someone who doesn't have as much experience, i think my meaning was that when you wake up, you can't rest on laurels like you can in other arenas of life, you can win an academy award or make it to the sports hall of fame and no matter how bad you are that day forward, they can't take it away and there are always 'perks' that come with that kind of fame, with race betting, there are zero perks, horses dont run faster because 'there' handicappers have money on them.

[Robert Fischer]

may i please ask what a 'track handicapper' is?
and what their role is?

These are horseplayer types who are employed by the track to act as 'experts' in order to drive handle. The best track handicappers are pro-level talents, with a local-to-insider's level of knowledge about their circuit.

I'm sure that these exist in Australia, but I don't know of their competency, regard, or to which degree they are featured.

[Cratos]

jeepers, you crack me up sometimes cratos.

if i have something at a prob of .5 then i think its odds should be evens(or better)

to me, simply 2 ways of saying the SAME THING.

They are not the same and that is what makes the original poster (ThreeGoldStars) statement: “1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning)” so salient.

• The probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

• The odds for an event is the ratio of the number of ways the event can occur to the number of ways it does not occur.

However, believe as you wish.

[EMD4ME]

Chris Davis got robbed of 4 or 5 home runs in 2015 yet he still won the AL home run championship with 47. And then signed a lucrative free agent contract with Baltimore.

I was using an analogy to explain how in 1 case you don't get credit for the home run.

Not justifying a poor season ;)

You're darn right, good players overcome the tough losses day in day out, minute in, minute out.

[EMD4ME]

You stack up decades of experience, decades of pain that propels you to higher levels and then when you wake up the next Morning, unlike hall of famers in sports and unlike academy award winners in Hollywood, you wake up at square one. Nothing you did the day before or the decade before means anything at all. We are all equals when the sun rises on a new handicapping day.

Very true but those with trip notes have 1 edge :lol: :cool: VS. those that don't.

[aaron]

I was using an analogy to explain how in 1 case you don't get credit for the home run.

Not justifying a poor season ;)

You're darn right, good players overcome the tough losses day in day out, minute in, minute out.
The better, the player you are, the more tough losses you will experience. It is the nature of the game. You are betting live horses, so in most cases you are there at the end, because your horses, generally are performing.

[Trips]

The first 2 times i quit my job and went full time i failed. Cannot express the difference from having every bill paid and additional monthly income due to a job versus having no safety net. Even though i had an ample sized bankroll and plenty of months expenses in reserve, the pressures were enormous. Even though unaware of it the plays i made were more conservative and less profitable.

[lamboy]

The first 2 times i quit my job and went full time i failed. Cannot express the difference from having every bill paid and additional monthly income due to a job versus having no safety net. Even though i had an ample sized bankroll and plenty of months expenses in reserve, the pressures were enormous. Even though unaware of it the plays i made were more conservative and less profitable.

the lone time I quit my job and went pro was a disaster for the same reason. everyone has their own socio-economic issues which prevent them from reaching their full potential. behavorial economics points out our biases caused by these issues.

[rsetup]

You stack up decades of experience, decades of pain that propels you to higher levels and then when you wake up the next Morning, unlike hall of famers in sports and unlike academy award winners in Hollywood, you wake up at square one. Nothing you did the day before or the decade before means anything at all. We are all equals when the sun rises on a new handicapping day. Couldn't be any more WRONG! :ThmbDown:

[the little guy]

Couldn't be any more WRONG! :ThmbDown:

Agreed. That statement is as inaccurate as it is illogical.

[EasyGoer89]

Couldn't be any more WRONG! :ThmbDown:

Read post 200.

[KennyG1]

Thank you for your honest post. You clearly have the ability to put your ego aside and take personal accountability for your shortcomings; that is the first step towards success at anything, in my opinion.

I am a coach. I won't say WHAT I coach, because it doesn't matter. This is my advice: Stop looking at the scoreboard (bankroll, wins, losses) etc., as a measure of success. Instead, define success by some metric that that tells you how WELL you played. The truth is, as we all know, you can be a GREAT handicapper and bettor and STILL have horrible days monetarily. That's the nature of the game. But what you don't want the nature of the game to be is that you get away from playing your A or B game, and start playing your C, D, or God forbid, your F game because you are measuring success by your bankroll rather than the quality of your play.

The truth is that for every insightful, technically knowledgeable, hard-working handicapper and bettor, if they ALWAYS played their A and B games, they would be long-term winners - perhaps not BIG winners, but winners nonetheless. But to most people's detriment, they enter into a no-fault-of-their-own losing streak, and it gets exacerbated by the failure to continue to play their A and B games.

The question then begs, what exactly gets them out of their A and B games and pushes them into their C, D, and F games? Because the truth is, if they NEVER knew the results of the races and never got to check their bankroll, they would never have reason to alter their games OTHER than to make improvements based, not on their bankrolls, but instead, on the quality of their play as measured by a factor that is NOT their bankroll.

When you look at your bankroll, what is it telling you? That you are the greatest person on Earth? That you are a degen loser? Well, it should not tell you anything. In a perfect world you would never look it at and you would just withdraw money periodically, knowing that the withdrawal would leave your bankroll with plenty of wagering money.

Believe me when I tell you (and I know this from being a coach!), your bankroll is the WRONG MEASURE OF SUCCESS. Your bankroll is your ego, and when you are playing with ego, you are almost assured of losing.

When you bet, your measure of success should be:

1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning);

2. the quality of your bet construction;

3. the quality of your physical bet-making (i.e. do you make errors when saying your bet to a clerk or phonebet operator, or do you make errors keying in your bets online).

If your quality of each of the three above is excellent, then two things will happen:

a. your bankroll will take care of itself (assuming you already have the level of handicapping, bet construction, and bet-making that is necessary to sustain a bankroll)

b. you will have no reason to look at your bankroll as a measure of success, and therefore, you will not be susceptible to the C, D, and F swings in the quality of your game (i.e. you will not be tilting money away).

Remember: your bankroll is your ego. When it's big, you are puffing up your chest and rocking your arms back and forth like King Kong. When it's decreasing, you are a loser. Neither is optimal, not even close.

Work on playing your best game more and more; and then continually work on improving. The rest takes care of itself.

And so, how do you know you have "arrived"? That's an easy question to answer. When you no longer measure success by the size of your bankroll, in other words, when you stop play egoically. I guarantee that this is the answer to EMD4ME's question.

Sincerely,

ThreeGoldStars

Thank you ThreeGoldStars for your advice. Your reply is now saved onto my computer as a reminder when things are not going well. Hopefully I don't have to revisit it often.

Now I just have to figure out what my A or B game actually is........

Also thank you to the people discussing temperament. Doing some self reflecting, I've noticed how upset I've gotten after losing wagers in the past few months. My mentality shifted to expecting to win every bet, obviously not a good frame of mind. Just yesterday I was in a bad mood because the 30-1 shot I bet finished 20 lengths behind. In a clearer mindset, I now see that's a ridiculous way to behave.

Serenity now, serenity now.

[cj]

The reason we never know if an odds line is accurate is that each race is only ever run once. At the end, the actual probability for the winner was 100% and all others 0%. We can't rerun the race 100 times like a coin toss or shuffle the deck deck like a card game.

[Cratos]

The reason we never know if an odds line is accurate is that each race is only ever run once. At the end, the actual probability for the winner was 100% and all others 0%. We can't rerun the race 100 times like a coin toss or shuffle the deck deck like a card game.
Comparing horserace probabilities to “a coin toss or shuffle the deck like a card game” is like comparing apples and oranges; a coin toss or a shuffle of the deck cards are RANDOM probability; horserace handicapping is CONDITIONAL probability.

The odds line for a horse in each race is accurate for the moment in time the race is run because it is determined by the wagers from the bettors who believe the horse will win against the wagers from the bettors of the race who believe the horse will lose.

Same horse in a different race with different bettors; the odds might change because the bettors’ beliefs of the new race might be different.

At the end of any horserace the actual probability in never 100% because the probability metric interval is always 0<1/n<1.

[thaskalos]

Comparing horserace probabilities to “a coin toss or shuffle the deck like a card game” is like comparing apples and oranges; a coin toss or a shuffle of the deck cards are RANDOM probability; horserace handicapping is CONDITIONAL probability.

The odds line for a horse in each race is accurate for the moment in time the race is run because it is determined by the wagers from the bettors who believe the horse will win against the wagers from the bettors of the race who believe the horse will lose.

Same horse in a different race with different bettors; the odds might change because the bettors’ beliefs of the new race might be different.

At the end of any horserace the actual probability in never 100% because the probability metric interval is always 0<1/n<1.

When we mention "horserace probabilities"...are we referring to the odds that we see on the tote board...or are we talking about the odds-line that the individual handicapper makes, which he then compares to the tote board odds?

[Cratos]

Not to belabor the earlier stated distinction between “odds and probability”, but "horserace probabilities" are not odds.

Horse probability is the chance the handicapper assigns to a horse (formally or informally) based on his/her CONDITIONAL assessment of the horse’s chances of winning the race.

However, when the handicapper enters the race betting pool (which the horse is entered) by wagering, the odds on the horse will avail themselves by the distribution of all wagering in the betting pool with respect to the amounts wagered on each horse; the handicapper’s probability would go unchanged.

[cj]

The odds line for a horse in each race is accurate for the moment in time the race is run because it is determined by the wagers from the bettors who believe the horse will win against the wagers from the bettors of the race who believe the horse will lose.



If this were true, we should all just quit and find another hobby. It would be impossible for anyone to win long term.

[thaskalos]

Not to belabor the earlier stated distinction between “odds and probability”, but "horserace probabilities" are not odds.

Horse probability is the chance the handicapper assigns to a horse (formally or informally) based on his/her CONDITIONAL assessment of the horse’s chances of winning the race.

However, when the handicapper enters the race betting pool (which the horse is entered) by wagering, the odds on the horse will avail themselves by the distribution of all wagering in the betting pool with respect to the amounts wagered on each horse; the handicapper’s probability would go unchanged.

I can't disagree with what you say here. But in post #213 you stated:

"The odds line for a horse in each race is accurate for the moment in time the race is run because it is determined by the wagering from the bettors who believe the horse will win against the wagers from the bettors of the race who believe the horse will lose."

IMO...the very reason why we make a bet on a particular horse in a given race is because we perceive the odds line of this horse to be INACCURATE at the moment in time that we place the wager.

[cj]

IMO...the very reason why we make a bet on a particular horse in a given race is because we perceive the odds line of this horse to be INACCURATE at the moment in time that we place the wager.

This is exactly what I was trying to say.

[steveb]

They are not the same and that is what makes the original poster (ThreeGoldStars) statement: “1. the quality of your handicapping (i.e. do you correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning)” so salient.

• The probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

• The odds for an event is the ratio of the number of ways the event can occur to the number of ways it does not occur.

However, believe as you wish.

can i have some of what you're smoking please!

1 to 1 is .5 or 1/2
3 to 1 is .25 or 1/4

they may indeed be 'different' but evens is always going to be .5
3 to 1 is always going to be .25

although your alternate universe may have them different!!

i long ago figured that you like to make the simple complicated

[steveb]

These are horseplayer types who are employed by the track to act as 'experts' in order to drive handle. The best track handicappers are pro-level talents, with a local-to-insider's level of knowledge about their circuit.

I'm sure that these exist in Australia, but I don't know of their competency, regard, or to which degree they are featured.

thanks for that.
i don't think we have them, although i could be wrong.

the tipsters here invariably work for the media is what i thought.
don't know of any worth their salt over here though.

[Cratos]

can i have some of what you're smoking please!

1 to 1 is .5 or 1/2
3 to 1 is .25 or 1/4

they may indeed be 'different' but evens is always going to be .5
3 to 1 is always going to be .25

although your alternate universe may have them different!!

i long ago figured that you like to make the simple complicated
Your insults are humorous and not taken seriously by me and you don’t get it; and probably never will.

What you have shown with your 2-1 odds example is that the proportion of dollars that were wagered on a horse in the race is close to the “true value” .5 for the horse winning when in a race against the same horses. A mathematical model for proving this assertion is called Bernoulli Trials.

However only through the Law of Large Numbers can it be shown that in the Bernoulli Trials model, the proportion of dollars wagered on the horse in the race should be near .5 which would be consistent with your intuitive idea of the frequency interpretation of probability.

[Cratos]

If this were true, we should all just quit and find another hobby. It would be impossible for anyone to win long term.
Whether you or anyone else want to give up wagering on horse races is a personal choice, but the reason for any rational bettor to make a wager is because of his/her Perceived Probability of which horse will win a given race. This is the essence of the “correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning” statement alluded too by the poster, “threegoldstars”.

The accuracy of odds on the toteboard is because of “collusion of probabilities,” that is, the agreements among groups of bettors in the betting pool through their wagering.

When a bettor wages against this accuracy of “collusion of probabilities,” it doesn’t means that the odds are inaccurate because the odds are just derivatives which reflects these probabilities, but it does mean that the bettor’s “Perceived Probability” of which horse will win the race is different from other bettors in the betting pool and if the bettor is correct, he/she will exploit this difference by waging against.

[elhelmete]

Whether you or anyone else want to give up wagering on horse races is a personal choice, but the reason for any rational bettor to make a wager is because of his/her Perceived Probability of which horse will win a given race. This is the essence of the “correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning” statement alluded too by the poster, “threegoldstars”.

The accuracy of odds on the toteboard is because of “collusion of probabilities,” that is, the agreements among groups of bettors in the betting pool through their wagering.

When a bettor wages against this accuracy of “collusion of probabilities,” it doesn’t means that the odds are inaccurate because the odds are just derivatives which reflects these probabilities, but it does mean that the bettor’s “Perceived Probability” of which horse will win the race is different from other bettors in the betting pool and if the bettor is correct, he/she will exploit this difference by waging against.

TL/DR

There's parimutuel tote.
There's your brain.
Sometimes they meet. Sometimes they don't.
Act accordingly.

[cj]

Whether you or anyone else want to give up wagering on horse races is a personal choice, but the reason for any rational bettor to make a wager is because of his/her Perceived Probability of which horse will win a given race. This is the essence of the “correctly assign probabilities to horse's chances of winning” statement alluded too by the poster, “threegoldstars”.

The accuracy of odds on the toteboard is because of “collusion of probabilities,” that is, the agreements among groups of bettors in the betting pool through their wagering.

When a bettor wages against this accuracy of “collusion of probabilities,” it doesn’t means that the odds are inaccurate because the odds are just derivatives which reflects these probabilities, but it does mean that the bettor’s “Perceived Probability” of which horse will win the race is different from other bettors in the betting pool and if the bettor is correct, he/she will exploit this difference by waging against.

All I've said is we have no way to know if the odds for any one race, whether generated by the public or by a bettor, are accurate. This is true both before and after the race. All we can do is try to take advantage of perceived mistakes by the public. That is gambling in a nutshell really.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Reading this continuous(and not just on this thread) red tape regarding playing the game seems like a threshold some can't mentally cross and overcome. I'm guessing the "There" for those successful in this game has more to do with performance statistics of their own than exactitude in the process.

[PaceAdvantage]

not that you have to take my word for it but i'm familiar with the crowd that hangs out at NYRA's player clubs and Emd is legit.I guess nobody reads my posts or doesn't put much stock into them. I've been saying he's legit for quite some time now...but that isn't enough I suppose... :lol:

[NorCalGreg]

I guess nobody reads my posts or doesn't put much stock into them. I've been saying he's legit for quite some time now...but that isn't enough I suppose... :lol:

I happen to know you, EMD, and this Lamboy fellow are part of some international betting consortium---since I've now "outed" you three...do me a favor and read your email :)

[EMD4ME]

Delta Lover is (Legit) as well :)

As far as odds go, I couldn't care less if a horse that is 25% chance to win goes off at 1/1 or 4/1 in the win pool. I mostly only care about that horses usage (by the public in the picks).

In the pick 5, you're payoff pays way more than the parlay, so small variances of a horses odds vs.true chance is irrelevant to me.

Most often, its to the players advantage. Even 3/5's in the win pool , most often are 1/1 in the pick 5.

[PaceAdvantage]

I happen to know you, EMD, and this Lamboy fellow are part of some international betting consortium---since I've now "outed" you three...do me a favor and read your email :)I haven't been on this board since Thanksgiving...and you want me to read my email?!?!?!? :lol:

Sorry about that...will definitely get to it today.

[EMD4ME]

I happen to know you, EMD, and this Lamboy fellow are part of some international betting consortium---since I've now "outed" you three...do me a favor and read your email :)

Hey, you're the 4 in the 4 horsemen. Dont break the club pal. :lol:

[aaron]

I guess nobody reads my posts or doesn't put much stock into them. I've been saying he's legit for quite some time now...but that isn't enough I suppose... :lol:
He has been legit for quite awhile.I met him quite a few years ago at a NYRA lincheon

[PaceAdvantage]

But still there are doubters...oh well

[DeltaLover]

Odds and probabilities are expressing the same thing albeit in different format. Whoever cannot see this is clueless about both math and gambling and cannot be taken seriously.

Whenever you say that a specific event has odds of X to Y what you mean is that there are X ways to loose and Y ways to win. Given this definition the probability of Y is P(y) = Y / (Y+X).

Example:

If the odds are 9 – 2 it translates to a 2 / 11 or 0.18 win probability or 18% .

[aaron]

But still there are doubters...oh well
One other thing,I'll say about him.He happens to me a really nice guy.

[rsetup]

Odds and probabilities are expressing the same thing albeit in different format. Whoever cannot see this is clueless about both math and gambling and cannot be taken seriously.

Whenever you say that a specific event has odds of X to Y what you mean is that there are X ways to loose and Y ways to win. Given this definition the probability of Y is P(y) = Y / (Y+X).

Example:

If the odds are 9 – 2 it translates to a 2 / 11 or 0.18 win probability or 18% .

What's the probability that you lose if your horse gets loose in the post parade but isn't scratched? Any clue?

[NorCalGreg]

Delta Lover is (Legit) as well :)



Delta's legit now, too? I'm legit too then :lol:

[EMD4ME]

He has been legit for quite awhile.I met him quite a few years ago at a NYRA lincheon

OMG. I didn't know I knew you Aaron ! Please say hello again next time you're around. Forgive me for not putting 2&2 together.

This thread has taken an ugly turn (about me :blush: ). Let's please get back on topic.

[EMD4ME]

Delta's legit now, too? I'm legit too then :lol:

Delta bets obscene amounts of money to win on longshots/ prices. Amounts that would make half of PA nation die of a heart attack mid race, if they bet like him. Man should be commended . (Sorry if I said too much Delta. Text me if I did).

What next? Are you going to create a thread on defining the term "legit"?

[EMD4ME]

One other thing,I'll say about him.He happens to me a really nice guy.

Thank you sir.... :blush: (last post about me but I wanted to say thank you).

Again, please say hello next time you're around.

[NorCalGreg]

Delta bets obscene amounts of money to win on longshots/ prices. Amounts that would make half of PA nation die of a heart attack mid race, if they bet like him. Man should be commended . (Sorry if I said too much Delta. Text me if I did).

What next? Are you going to create a thread on defining the term "legit"?

Maybe you could start a new thread and title it:

WHEN YOU KNOW YOU ARE "LEGIT"

[DeltaLover]

Delta bets obscene amounts of money to win on longshots/ prices. Amounts that would make half of PA nation die of a heart attack mid race, if they bet like him. Man should be commended . (Sorry if I said too much Delta. Text me if I did).

What next? Are you going to create a thread on defining the term "legit"?


:kiss:

[EMD4ME]

Maybe you could start a new thread and title it:

WHEN YOU KNOW YOU ARE "LEGIT"
:lol: :lol: :lol:

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I will ! When this one eventually fizzles out :D

[steveb]

Your insults are humorous and not taken seriously by me and you don’t get it; and probably never will.

What you have shown with your 2-1 odds example is that the proportion of dollars that were wagered on a horse in the race is close to the “true value” .5 for the horse winning when in a race against the same horses. A mathematical model for proving this assertion is called Bernoulli Trials.

However only through the Law of Large Numbers can it be shown that in the Bernoulli Trials model, the proportion of dollars wagered on the horse in the race should be near .5 which would be consistent with your intuitive idea of the frequency interpretation of probability.


:confused: give it up steve, it matters not.

[EMD4ME]

:kiss:

I only speak the truth sir!

Now, don't get too excited :lol: I only play for the Mets, not the Yankees.

Not that you're a yankee fan :lol:

Not that there's anything wrong with being a yankee fan :lol:

[DeltaLover]

I only speak the truth sir!

Now, don't get too excited :lol: I only play for the Mets, not the Yankees.

Not that you're a yankee fan :lol:

Not that there's anything wrong with being a yankee fan :lol:

Hmm... My friend, I am only a fan(ATIC) of OLYMPIAKOS (http://www.olympiacos.org/en) and no other team in the world!


http://i66.tinypic.com/67ih05.png

[NorCalGreg]

That is the surest sign a thread has run it's course--when Olympia Dukakis fans run amok. Let's have this thread locked with a proper image:

[EMD4ME]

Hmm... My friend, I am only a fan(ATIC) of OLYMPIAKOS (http://www.olympiacos.org/en) and no other team in the world!


http://i66.tinypic.com/67ih05.png


I was only saying that for your and my benefit, as the crowd needs to know :)


BTW, I think NCG has a man crush on you :)

[EMD4ME]

That is the surest sign a thread has run it's course--when Olympia Dukakis fans run amok. Let's have this thread locked with a proper image:


Olympia Dukakis???

Waiter.......I'll have what he's having. That's some good sheet.

NCG, I was speaking with an analogy. The man replied and used his favorite soccer team in his answer.

You turn that into Olympia Dukakis????

I think it's time for the legit thread....

[DeltaLover]

Since somebody mentioned the word AMOK..


GOAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://i68.tinypic.com/sws51e.jpg

[NorCalGreg]

Since somebody mentioned the word AMOK..


GOAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://i68.tinypic.com/sws51e.jpg

Even the "Black Hole" doesn't look like that after a touchdown :lol: That's some serious celebrating