HONG KONG/SHA TIN -SUN 11/20

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 10 races on the Turf. The last 5 races are especially interesting because there are some pretty classy runners involved.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for at least 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the Live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any live selections for Hong Kong this morning.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #4 - #8 - #9 & #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1400M (7F) Turf….....2-8 W/ 11-5-1-6 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 with possibly of #5 moving up Live)

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......3-2 W/ 7-1-8-6 …...12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 with possibly of #1 moving up Live)

R#3 - 1800M (9F) Turf.......4-5 W/ 1-2-3-14.......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 or #14 possibly moving up Live)

R#4 - 2000M (10F) Turf......2-6 W/ 8-5-7-11…...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 & #4 with possibly of #5 or #7 moving up Live)

R#5 - 1400M (7F) Turf …....2-4 W/ 3-9-8-6-13......2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 or #13 possibly moving up Live)

R#6 - 2000M (10F) Turf......2-1 W/ 3-5-6………..2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 possibly moving up Live)

R#7 - 1600M (8F) Turf….....3-4 W/ 2-5-1...............3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 with possibly of #5 or #1 moving up Live)

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf........2-4 W/ 3-1-5-9 ….....3:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #5 with possibly moving up Live)

R#9 - 1600M (8F) Turf.......10-3 W/ 2-1-5-4-9.......4:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 with possibly moving up Live)

R#10 - 1200M (6F) Turf......2-12 W/ 1-9-3-4..........4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #14 with possibly of #9 moving up Live)

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
(See previous HK threads for download)

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-8 W/ 11-5-1-6...........Results: 11-14-2-1 (3rd choice – Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.4/1 ) – 8 ( 8.9/1 ) – 11 ( 8/1 ) - $64.00 – $64.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 8.0 8.9 BET PRF
$7 $18 $20
$38 $14 $13 $65 $64 99%
$129 $126 $129
1 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live

[Nitro]

R#2 - 3-2 W/ 7-1-8-6...........Results: 6-8-7-1 (6th choice Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 3/1 ) – 2 ( 7.3/1 ) – 7 ( 3/1 ) - ($41.00) – $23.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.0 7.3 BET PRF
$8 $8 $17
$17 $17 $8 $41 $25 61%
$66 $66 $66
#6 took a lot of very late money – 10/1 to 6/1 – too late to make a change!
Quartet (Super) paid 19K US$
1 for 2 Early & 1 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 4-5 W/ 1-2-3-14............. Results: 2-4-1-6 (4th choice Early - $31 Quin/ $297 Tri & In Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 5/1 ) – 5 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 5/1 ) - ($56.00) – ($33.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.0 5.0 10.0 BET PRF
$12 $12 $22
$22 $22 $12 $56 $76 136%
$132 $132 $132
Solid action on the winner.
1 for 3 Early & 2 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-6 W/ 8-5-7-11.........Results: 10-11-8-2 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 9/1 ) – 6 ( 10/1 ) – 8 ( 16/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($75.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
9.0 10.0 16.0 BET PRF
$20 $22 $34
$17 $15 $10 $42 $128 305%
$170 $165 $170
1 for 4 Early & 2 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-4 W/ 3-9-8-6-13......... Results: 14-4-3-10 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 5.3/1 ) – 4 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 9.7/1 ) - ($54.00) – ($129.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.3 5.9 9.7 BET PRF
$13 $14 $21
$21 $20 $13 $54 $81 152%
$135 $135 $135
Winner got solid action throughout.
1 for 5 Early & 2 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-1 W/ 3-5-6......... Results: 5-6-3-4 (4th choice Out Early & Moved up Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 4.8/1 ) – 1 ( 3.2/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) - ($30.00) – ($159.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 3.8 4.8 BET PRF
$8 $10 $12
$12 $10 $8 $30 $19 62%
$49 $49 $49 Quinella Bx - $475 & Tri Bx $3,408
1 for 6 Early & 3 for 6 Live

[CincyHorseplayer]

Have fun bro!

[Nitro]

R#7 - 3-4 W/ 2-5-1……….Results: 3-10-8-1 (Top choice - Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 3.3/1 ) – 4 ( 6.2/1 ) – 2 ( 9.2/1 ) - $91.00 – ($68.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.3 6.2 9.2 BET PRF
$9 $14 $20
$40 $24 $17 $81 $91 112%
$172 $173 $173
Mile Time for Beauty Only - (1.33.79)
2 for 7 Early & 4 for 7 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-4 W/ 3-1-5-9........ Results: 6-4-3-2 (Out Early & Live )
Dutch – 2 ( 6.6/1 ) – 4 ( 5.1/1 ) – 3 ( 2.4/1 ) - ($30.00) – ($98.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 5.1 6.6 BET PRF
$7 $12 $15
$15 $8 $7 $30 $21 70%
$52 $52 $52
2 for 8 Early & 4 for 8 Live

[Nitro]

R#9 - 10-3 W/ 2-1-5-4-9.......... Results: 9-10-5-4 (Out Early $41 Quin & Live)
Dutch – 10 ( 1.5/1 ) – 3 ( 20/1 ) – 2 ( 34/1 ) - ($50.00) – ($148.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.5 20.0 34 BET PRF
$5 $42 $70
$42 $5 $3 $50 $55 110%
$105 $105 $105
Winner got solid late action as 2nd choice – went from 9.1/1 to 6/1
2 for 9 Early & 4 for 9 Live

[Nitro]

R#10 - 2-12 W/ 1-9-3-4........Results: 4-2-3-12 (6th choice Out Early $137 Quin/$1,157 Tri Bx & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 15/1 ) – 12 ( 1.8/1 ) – 1 ( 9/1 ) - ($47.00) – ($195.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.8 9.0 15.0 BET PRF
$6 $20 $32
$32 $9 $6 $47 $43 92%
$90 $90 $90 2 for 10 Early & 4 for 10 Live

[Nitro]

This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. Hitting only 2 out of 10 races (20%) produced a Net loss of $195 after betting $496 or a 39% Net loss margin. The Live final selections turned out to be a bit more rewarding with hit rate of 40%, and at least producing some net profit. Fortunately a few decent exotics made it worthwhile.

Although it was a great card there were quite a few upsets.