SAME QUESTION FOR SARATOGA

[delayjf]

Fast was lamented about how tough it is for a lot of handicappers to win at Del Mar.

I'd adk the same question for Saratoga. What methods do those of you who have had success at Saratoga use?

[andicap]

same methods I use at Belmont, but you really have to be attuned to the possible track bias there. And they can change.
Last year on Traver's Day, early speed was huge. Only thing that was winning were horses rated high in first fraction.
There are times when speed is so dangerous. Other times it is not.
It can be tricky too. You can cash some big prices betting speed but you might be fooled into thinking the track isn't being kind to speed on some days because come from behind horses are winning too. But horses with a pace edge are often tough even on days when speed isn't holding up every race. Sometimes it will look like a duel will develop and it doesn't and one horse cruises.

I would also say you should be aware of trainers who aim for Saratoga and who has the strong 2 yr olds. Also, keep track of the shipping traines early in the meet to see who is loaded. A shipping trainer that starts strong is worth following for a couple of weeks as he puts his horses on the track the first time.

Also be aware of which trainers win first time out in the meet and which ones win 2nd and 3rd times out.

I will do a comprehensie study of last year's charts/trainer stats for the meet. You can buy the Progressive Handicapping books or the DRF's Saratoga special and they are helpful aids. But I also find I get more out of it if I get my hands dirty and compile the data myself. I'm more likely to remember certain names and trends than if I have fish through a book blind.

If you do get the Prog Handicap books, spring for the updates which detail who's hot and who's not if you are not doing the research yourself.

Finally, I would be aware of not only the trainers that like to win at Saratoga but the OWNERS too. Certain owners demand their trainers win there -- so they can show off for their friends -- and you will see trainers winning over and over again for certain owners.

One thing I have never tracked but if you had the time or DB is whether certain sires do well at Saratoga. Since it is a major horse for course -- some horses just really run well up there because they like to be in the country or they like the track -- it's pssible there are sires for courses too.

So look out for horses for courses too, which I should have mentioned up top. Many of us recall Fourstardave who won a stakes race at the Spa every year.
Unfortunately the horse for course angle is well known and tends to be overbet.

[Tom]

DRF published Players Guides for Sar and Del the last few years, which were pretty good for a few bucks.
Nicest was the charts for the last seasonand the Winner's Books for the last three years.
Anyone seen them advertised this year? I have seen anything on them and they should be out like this week.

[TravisVOX]

I can't wait. I'm working for the Saratoga Special this year, I plan on being right on top of the races and maybe I can provide some reports back here....

Track bias...hello! That's the big one.

Inside trips on the weeds, the turns are ultra-tight at Saratoga, a common mis-belief (goes for dirt too)...

Horses for courses.

Don't bet the inside post going 7f.

[cj]

Originally posted by Tom
DRF published Players Guides for Sar and Del the last few years, which were pretty good for a few bucks.
Nicest was the charts for the last seasonand the Winner's Books for the last three years.
Anyone seen them advertised this year? I have seen anything on them and they should be out like this week.

http://www.drf.com/sar/2004/players_guides.html

[Valuist]

Travis-

Agree except for your last comment. The recent Horseplayer magazine had a story of Saratoga with myths and realities. The myth is that inside posts are bad in sprints at Sar. Reality: 30% of main track sprints last year were won by posts 1 and 2 and posts 9 and out almost went zero for 6 weeks. I can still remember the race Valid Video and Great Notion ran 1-2 with inside trips all race while Ghostzapper ran third with a wide trip.

[delayjf]

I think one thing that makes Saratoga difficult for anybody is the full fields. This put a premium on the trip. Also evaluating shippers from several different circuits adds another element into the speed / pace figure makers mix.

Anybody notice their figures not working as well at Saratoga. As I recall, Beyer had problems as well.

[Valuist]

I remember there was a 4 or 5 year run where Kentucky shippers did very well. Finally the New Yorkers started betting these horses so I don't think that angle is as profitable as it was in the late nineties.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Best samina regardless of odds. staying out of trip trouble.

[mudnturf]

I'll just add this.
If a horse has a higher than average "Wet" rating (320 or more) in the DRF, but shows two or fewer poor efforts on "off" tracks elsewhere, give the horse another chance if all else looks OK.
I've found that "muddy" and "sloppy" at Saratoga often produces different results than, for example, "muddy" at Churchill, or "sloppy" at Belmont.
An "off" track at Saratoga provides for a different surface than many other tracks.

[Valuist]

Lee-

I've noticed your mud ratings are very good indicators for races w/mostly unraced 2YOs. Its amazing how often the 2YO winner has the highest mud number.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by mudnturf

An "off" track at Saratoga provides for a different surface than many other tracks.

Just like Harvey Pack used to wail. :D

[Charlie Judge]

There is a good correlation ( R = .41) between the mud number and a similarly calculated distance breeding number.

I think that you are seeing an overall sire quality measure here. A sire with the best mud numbers frequently has top distance specific numbers as well. Think of A.P. Indy here.

CAJ