HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 11/16

[Nitro]

Good morning everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED. EST

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I’m not going to be posting any live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning.
Early selections to follow.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #8
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 -1200M (6F) T…........4-1 W/ 3-5-6-9 .........7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#2 - 1000M (5F) T......... 4-1 W/ 8-2-3-5 …..7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) T..........1-2 W/ 7-4-9-10........8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 or #9 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) T......4-3 W/ 5-1-7-6….....8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 or #7 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) T..…...1-3 W/ 7-8-5 ...........9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) T…..…1-3 W/ 8-2-5-11…...9:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#7 - 1800M (9F) T...........1-2 W/ 5-4-9-6..........10:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 or #6 possibly moving up w/Live action)

R#8 -1200M (6F) T……........2-4 W/ 3-6-10-1 ..….10:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 or #10 possibly moving up w/Live action)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 4-1 W/ 3-5-6-9.............. Results: 3-10-6-5 (3rd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 3.6/1 ) – 1 ( 11/1 ) – 3 ( 8.7/1 ) - $66.00 – $66.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.6 8.7 11.0 BET PRF
$9 $19 $24
$24 $11 $9 $45 $66 148%
$110 $110 $110
1 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live

[Nitro]

R#2 - 4-1 W/ 8-2-3-5........... Results: 4-2-9-1 (Top choice & Quin Early & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 1.6/1 ) – 1 ( 31/1 ) – 8 ( 22/1 ) - $90.00 – $156.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 22.0 31.0 BET PRF
$5 $46 $64
$64 $7 $5 $76 $90 118%
$166 $166 $166
2 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1-2 W/ 7-4-9-10............. Results: 1-2-4-10 (Top choice- Quin/Tri Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.5/1 ) – 2 ( 4.6/1 ) – 7 ( 7.4/1 ) - $48.00 – $214.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.5 4.6 7.4 BET PRF
$11 $11 $17
$17 $17 $11 $44 $48 109%
$92 $92 $92
3 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 4-3 W/ 5-1-7-6......... Results: 9-8-4-11 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 4.8/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 5 ( 3.7/1 ) - ($56.00) – $158.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.7 4.8 12.0 BET PRF
$9 $12 $26
$26 $21 $9 $56 $66 116%
$122 $122 $122
3 for 4 Early & 3 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-3 W/ 7-8-5............. Results: 6-3-8-5 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 35/1 ) – 4 ( 13/1 ) – 5 ( 3.4/1 ) - ($40.00) – $118.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 9.5 10.0 BET PRF
$9 $21 $22
$22 $9 $9 $40 $59 145%
$99 $99 $99
3 for 5 Early & 3 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-3 W/ 8-2-5-11......... Results: 4-3-9-10 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 16/1 ) – 3 ( 7.1/1 ) – 2 ( 5.7/1 ) - ($38.00) – $80.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.7 7.1 16.0 BET PRF
$13 $16 $34
$17 $14 $7 $38 $76 200%
$114 $113 $119
3 for 6 Early & 3 for 6 Live

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 5-4-9-6……….Results: 8-6-7-5 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 10/1 ) – 2 ( 28/1 ) –5 ( 8.1/1 ) - ($61.00) – $19.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
8.1 10.0 28.0 BET PRF
$18 $22 $58
$29 $24 $8 $61 $203 333%
$264 $264 $232
3 for 7 Early & 3 for 7 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-4 W/ 3-6-10-1............ Results: 2-9-8-10 (Top choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.7/1 ) – 4 ( 7.1/1 ) – 3 ( 16/1 ) - $69.00 – $88.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 7.1 16.0 BET PRF
$7 $16 $34
$34 $16 $7 $57 $69 121%
$126 $126 $126
4 for 8 Early & 4 for 8 Live

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 4 out of 8 races (50%) produced a profit of $88 after betting $417 or a 21% O.A. profit margin.

Of course, some might scoff at posting 6 selections per race (in fields of 12 entries), but when played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.

It’s not about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.

[formula_2002]

nice going again.
I only had 1 winner, but it returned $5.09 on the dollar

[Nitro]

nice going again.
I only had 1 winner, but it returned $5.09 on the dollar
Thanks Formula!
I thought I might have a better day myself with maybe 5 out of the 8 races.
But I'll take a 50% day and some profit.

I'm sure you'll have better luck next time! :ThmbUp:

[formula_2002]

I don't know if you are aware that the handicapping contest rules at aqu this weekend lends itself to betting more than 1 horse in a race.
take a look at nyra.com

[gm10]

If anyone's interested, I am co-owner of a (free) site which offers past performances for HK. There are no selections as such, but we are having a good season with our top rated horses!

http://www.hkracing.com/