The one "verified" positive ROI spot play I know

[Bill Cullen]

In the late eighties or early nineties Jim Bayle of Sportstat once "verified" a positive ROI of about 5% for the following system.

For maiden sprints on the dirt (both maiden claimers and maiden special weights)

1) A workout of at least 5 furlongs since the last race and not more than eight days ago.
2) At least 9 other horses worked out with the horse under consideration.
3) The horse must have finished among the top 20% of the horses working out at that distance that day (ie, the horse's workout must show something like 2/10 or 4/20 or 8/40, etc).
4) The horse's odds today must be 10/1 or greater.

That's it.

[Skanoochies]

B.C.

In no.1 above, is it the workout or the race that not be more than 8 days ago?

Thanks, Skanoochies.:confused:

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Skanoochies
B.C.

In no.1 above, is it the workout or the race that not be more than 8 days ago?

Thanks, Skanoochies.:confused:


It's the workout.

Sorry about the ambiguity.

Bill Cullen

[Fastracehorse]

1) A workout of at least 5 furlongs since the last race and not more than eight days ago.

Have you postulated what that might mean??

fffasTT

[Fastracehorse]

1) A workout of at least 5 furlongs since the last race and not more than eight days ago.

Have you postulated what that might mean??

fffasTT

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
1) A workout of at least 5 furlongs since the last race and not more than eight days ago.

Have you postulated what that might mean??

fffasTT

I'm not sure what your question is, but I was referring to the workout having to take place within 8 days of today's race.

Does that answer your question?

Bill Cullen

[Light]

Bill

I've caught some good longshots with a similar approach that I use with workouts on a regular basis. Three points I've noticed with this angle:

1) If you get a horse who gives a FW(fast workout,I use 25% rather than 20%) who does not show one in his workout repetoire previously,watch out.This kind of horse is what will make the difference between a positive or negative ROI. This angle is doubly dangerous if it comes right after a claim.

2) Don't be fooled by need the lead types with bullet works. The reason they work fast is because there is usually no pressure in workouts.Must use discretion with these.

3)Sometimes I have caught bombs by checking out the number of horse with a FW since their last race.When there is only 1 ,I take a real close look at him,especially in races with lukewarm favorites. Can be a real lucrative addition in exoctics when searching for another candidate.

[Fastracehorse]

My question more or less pertains to the importance of work-outs.

No doubt it is a confusing area.

For eg., depending on the context, a bullet work-out can be a bad sign or a good sign.

I believe there are several types of works with different types of meaning - which lead to a description of the trainer's intent.

Not easy - but fascinating.

Thanx,

fffastt

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Light
Bill

I've caught some good longshots with a similar approach that I use with workouts on a regular basis. Three points I've noticed with this angle:

1) If you get a horse who gives a FW(fast workout,I use 25% rather than 20%) who does not show one in his workout repetoire previously,watch out.This kind of horse is what will make the difference between a positive or negative ROI. This angle is doubly dangerous if it comes right after a claim.

2) Don't be fooled by need the lead types with bullet works. The reason they work fast is because there is usually no pressure in workouts.Must use discretion with these.

3)Sometimes I have caught bombs by checking out the number of horse with a FW since their last race.When there is only 1 ,I take a real close look at him,especially in races with lukewarm favorites. Can be a real lucrative addition in exoctics when searching for another candidate.

Light,

Thanks for sharing your very interesting insights concerning maidens and workouts.

I agree that one of the best situations is when there's only one horse with a last fast workout.

I also concur that a bullet work for a maiden in its last work will likely result in the maiden being over-bet and that the public handicappers will pick up on that horse.

Regards,


Bill Cullen

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
My question more or less pertains to the importance of work-outs.

No doubt it is a confusing area.

For eg., depending on the context, a bullet work-out can be a bad sign or a good sign.

I believe there are several types of works with different types of meaning - which lead to a description of the trainer's intent.

Not easy - but fascinating.

Thanx,

fffastt

fffastt ,

For the system that I described at the beginning of this thread, a bullet work last out for a maiden is a negative since these horses tend to get over-bet and the system's looking for horses at 10/1 or higher.

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Light]

Bill

To clarify,I don't use FW only for maidens.I was talking about handicapping in general. I've never made a statistical analysis of the way I use workouts. Its just that its hit enough bombs that I dont care.

[Skanoochies]

My theory of using workouts as a `capping tool is not whether it is in a certain % of the top, but who they are being compared to. For instance horse A has a third fastest work out of thirty horses. Who were the other tenty nine. They may have been mostly two and three year old maidens. Now horse B has a workout that is tenth fastest out of forty say, but of the thirty that were slower than him several are allow. and good class claimers. This is usually easier to ascertain at ones local track where it much easier to recognize the horses just by seeing their names in the workout. But I have had some great prices by using this method that I refer to as hidden workouts.

Skanoochies.:)

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Skanoochies
My theory of using workouts as a `capping tool is not whether it is in a certain % of the top, but who they are being compared to. For instance horse A has a third fastest work out of thirty horses. Who were the other tenty nine. They may have been mostly two and three year old maidens. Now horse B has a workout that is tenth fastest out of forty say, but of the thirty that were slower than him several are allow. and good class claimers. This is usually easier to ascertain at ones local track where it much easier to recognize the horses just by seeing their names in the workout. But I have had some great prices by using this method that I refer to as hidden workouts.

Skanoochies.:)

Excellent insight about hidden workouts. I believe some of the huge payoffs I've had in the past with this angle are due precisely for the reasons you suggest (a maiden working well at the same distance on the same day relative to classier non-maiden horses).

thanks,

Bill Cullen