Early Speed Pattern Handicapping

[FakeNameChanged]

Since I've proposed other one-dimensional handicapping methods to pick winners, here's one that doesn't require any numbers crunching. It just requires recognizing two different patterns in the last race only. Only stipulation is race should have been in the last month or 35 days to be valid. I think that originally a month was a good cutoff but it seems with racing finding it harder to fill races(at least in the east), 35 days has worked well for me.

First Pattern: Horse must have been either leading at first call or 2 lengths or less from the lead. At the 2nd call, leading or within 3 lengths or less. At the Stretch call, horse not leading and 1 to 5 lengths from the lead. At the finish, horse lost by no more than 10 lengths. The theory at the 3rd call is we don't want the horse contesting the race to the point of losing any energy for the next race. I know Quirin disputes this theory, saying a horse that contests 3 points of call in two successive races is a good bet.. The only other rule is horse should be racing at same level, dropping, or up only ONE level in class.

First Pattern example:

Piloting- 6-1ML-entered at GPW for 1M on Oct. 16 at O.C. 62K.

15Sep16-GP-7f-OptClm 62K 3-1.5 3-1 4-1.5 4-1.5

Piloting won and paid $8.60. He dominated every point of call and won by 1-1/4 length. His win was 31 days after the qualifying race. With only 6 horses in this race, I consider that a good price at 3.30-1.

First Pattern example #2:

Nickos Red Star 20-1ML-entered at Del-7.5f-Turf- on 15Jun16 - Mdn15000

13May16-Pen-5.5f-Mdn12500 2-hd 3-1.5 3-3 3-9.5

Nickos Red Star won and paid $41.00! I think the slight rise by one class and running on turf made his payoff an outlier.

Let's go to the West Coast

First Pattern example #3:

Camino Del Paraiso-entered at DMR -1M-Turf- on 17Aug16-MSW-64K

22Jul16-DMR-1M-Turf-MSW-65K 5-1.75 7-2.75 4-3.5 4-3.75

Camino Del Paraiso fills all the requirements and in addition was a +21 Sp Improvement. He won and paid $28.40. By the way, he showed yet another Sp Improv in the winning race +10 and went on to win his next two races at 10.20 and 6.20. His next two wins were OFF the turf.


I won't show any more examples for the first pattern, if you look at PP's you'll quickly see dozens of these on any day at tracks everywhere. And it's been a good angle since I got into this game, probably forever.

Longshot Esp Pattern:-This early speed pattern differs only in the 3rd and last calls. The first call is still leading or within 2 lengths from the lead, and second call is also leading or within 3 lengths from the lead. At the third call, the horse should be 5 or more lengths from lead. At the finish the horse should be 10 or more lengths from the lead. Class drops, or rising in class do not matter at all. Probably why I call it the longshot Early Speed angle.

Longshot Esp Pattern example:

Staying on West Coast
Banze No Oeste entered at SA 6.5f-Turf on 30Sep16 in Opt Clm 40K with no less a rider than Kent Desormeaux. He used to ride at my home track as an apprentice.

5SEP16-DMR-1M- O.C. 40K. 4-2 5-1.75 5-5.5 7-13-
Not too inspiring at the finish but he was close up at the first two calls at a mile and today's race shortens up to 6.5 furlongs. He won and paid and even $50.00. I didn't have to search long to find a price like this.

Longshot Esp Pattern example #2:

Just last week, I posted a Speed Improvement horse River Knight who ran second and paid $42.00 at Aqueduct. Two races previously he showed the Longshot Esp pattern before at race on Oct. 19 at 1-1/16M on the turf at 25000 Clm. Below is his previous LS Esp pattern

21Sep16-Bel-6f-Turf -Alw62000- 2-hd 1-1/2 6-7.5 7-15.75

He fills all the requirement and even appears to be dropping in class. Ok, he didn't win but he ran second and paid 21.00 to place and with an 8/5 favorite he combined for a 84.00 exacta.

Longshot Esp Pattern example #3:

Spaceshotcowboy entered at EvD at 5-1/2f for 5000 Clm on 17Aug16

30Jul16-EvD-5-1/2f Clm5000- 3-nk 3-2.5 9-10 10-18.5

Spaceshotcowboy fills all the requirements and looks pretty bad in that last race after running a 22.0 -46-1/5 in the first half mile. Changing to Contresas riding probably isn't a bad sign for today's race. He went on to win and paid $42.20, and then promptly took off almost 3 months.

To be clear, these are SPOT plays and look for races where only one or maybe two of these patterns are present. If two are showing I often box them in an exacta. For the First Early speed pattern expect prices to be mostly in the $5.00 to 10.00 range, but we often get surprises. On the second longshot pattern, it's occasionally in the upper stratospheres, but much lower hit rate. If you have some other confirming angle that agrees with these, the more the better.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Here's a suggestion that may tighten/improve the results: insist on each play having at least a 2 Quirin speed point advantage over the field. You could call these "stronger plays" (if they are that) pattern 1 + 2, 2 + 2, and 3 + 2. You've been posting some interesting angles lately, thanks for the ideas :ThmbUp:

[FakeNameChanged]

Here's a suggestion that may tighten/improve the results: insist on each play having at least a 2 Quirin speed point advantage over the field. You could call these "stronger plays" (if they are that) pattern 1 + 2, 2 + 2, and 3 + 2. You've been posting some interesting angles lately, thanks for the ideas :ThmbUp:
Elliott, I didn't want to get into tie breaking but I do something very similar to what you suggest. Will have to reread Quirin's speed point advantage stuff again as you mentioned. Thanks for your comments.

[FakeNameChanged]

Not looking to make this a selection thread. I was just scanning the 2nd race at Churchill today, and the #7-Mango's Muse shows the Early speed pattern, and just at 35 days. Only question; is he rising in class? He clearly is off last race at 7500 Clm and today's is 16000 Clm. But a couple of months back he was running in higher Allowances and won one.

His line is: 4-nk 2-1.5 2-1 2-4 He's 12-1 ML and was beaten favorite last month. I'd probably take a flyer on him against these. No other Esp patterns in this race, although the #2-A Gala Day is close to one.

[delayjf]

Your early speed pattern seems similar to Jerry Stokes form darkening angle. I don't have that in front of me right now to compare, can anyone confirm?

[FakeNameChanged]

Not looking to make this a selection thread. I was just scanning the 2nd race at Churchill today, and the #7-Mango's Muse shows the Early speed pattern, and just at 35 days. Only question; is he rising in class? He clearly is off last race at 7500 Clm and today's is 16000 Clm. But a couple of months back he was running in higher Allowances and won one.

His line is: 4-nk 2-1.5 2-1 2-4 He's 12-1 ML and was beaten favorite last month. I'd probably take a flyer on him against these. No other Esp patterns in this race, although the #2-A Gala Day is close to one.

3rd-Aqu-1-1/8M Turf-25000Clm
reg. esp pattern below
#1A-Plainview-4-1ML- 2-1 2-hd 2-1.75 6-5.75 beaten favor. l.r.
l.s. pattern below
#3-Skill Not Luck- 10-1ML 3-1.5 3-1.5 3-6 3-14

Of course this is betting into two mild Sp Improv plays, the 2 and 6. Always better when they're one and the same.

[FakeNameChanged]

3rd-Aqu-1-1/8M Turf-25000Clm
reg. esp pattern below
#1A-Plainview-4-1ML- 2-1 2-hd 2-1.75 6-5.75 beaten favor. l.r.
l.s. pattern below
#3-Skill Not Luck- 10-1ML 3-1.5 3-1.5 3-6 3-14

Of course this is betting into two mild Sp Improv plays, the 2 and 6. Always better when they're one and the same.
Uhhh. Seems I showed wrong race. Duh.

[FakeNameChanged]

3rd-Aqu-1-1/8M Turf-25000Clm
reg. esp pattern below
#1A-Plainview-4-1ML- 2-1 2-hd 2-1.75 6-5.75 beaten favor. l.r.
l.s. pattern below
#3-Skill Not Luck- 10-1ML 3-1.5 3-1.5 3-6 3-14

Of course this is betting into two mild Sp Improv plays, the 2 and 6. Always better when they're one and the same.

Right race, wrong day, this is 3rd Aqu on FRIDAY. sorry for my confusion. I've been trying to navigate a new site(for me) to get PP's.

[FakeNameChanged]

Noticed this LS early speed pattern in the 8th at Aqu yesterday. Race was 1 mile on the turf at O.C. 100,000.

Glorious Empire(IRE) 7f-Turf - - -2 -hd - - - 2 -hd - - - 8 -9 - - -8 - 15

that race was 34 days ago, so he qualified on recency. He went off at 30-1 longest shot out of 8 horses. He lunged at the gate and spotted the field 3 lengths before he got involved. He wound up 1-3/4 BL's from the winner and paid an even $10.00 to show.

The other horse I mentioned at CD yesterday, Mango Muse also showed at 6.40. I mentioned that he might be rising more than one class on a quick scan. Looks like he fin. 3/4 BL from the winner, but class rise may have been too much.

[FakeNameChanged]

Only one Early speed pattern in 5 th at 1-1/16 M on turf. #2 Ocala Jim
1-1/2. 1-1/2. 3-1. 6-3.5. Raced 31 days ago
Won 22.20-9.20-6.50. Exacta with favorite 101.50.

[NorCalGreg]

Only one Early speed pattern in 5 th at 1-1/16 M on turf. #2 Ocala Jim
1-1/2. 1-1/2. 3-1. 6-3.5. Raced 31 days ago
Won 22.20-9.20-6.50. Exacta with favorite 101.50.

You betting these, Trace?

[FakeNameChanged]

Yes, I bet that one, but missed the exacta. I coupled it with 2nd favorite #11, which I thought would dominate over #8. The 11 was bet down in the doubles, and I listened to Ernie's praise and got caught up. But I don't bet them all, this just happened to be a one play only race on the 2. They ran 2-8-11 for over 465.00 trifecta. 1st and 2nd favorite with the early speed play. I admit to betting as I was leaving, watched on the monitor at the ticket office, had to pick up granddaughter at school. I'll blame her. I forgot to mention that these early speed plays often do well on the turf.
p.s. should have kept the sound turned down when Ernie was talking

[NorCalGreg]

Yes, I bet that one, but missed the exacta. I coupled it with 2nd favorite #11, which I thought would dominate over #8. The 11 was bet down in the doubles, and I listened to Ernie's praise and got caught up. But I don't bet them all, this just happened to be a one play only race on the 2. They ran 2-8-11 for over 465.00 trifecta. 1st and 2nd favorite with the early speed play. I admit to betting as I was leaving, watched on the monitor at the ticket office, had to pick up granddaughter at school. I'll blame her. I forgot to mention that these early speed plays often do well on the turf.

I'm telling you we get the same horses

[FakeNameChanged]

I'm telling you we get the same horses
Where was that? I saw your early double plays at Aq, but must have missed that. Good score.
I used a Pizzolla fulcrum pace idea in the 4th to get the winner and exacta, even if it was only 35.40. Just started trying to understand Mike's ideas, looks promising.

[NorCalGreg]

Where was that? I saw your early double plays at Aq, but must have missed that. Good score.
I used a Pizzolla fulcrum pace idea in the 4th to get the winner and exacta, even if it was only 35.40. Just started trying to understand Mike's ideas, looks promising.


That was Ocala Jim....the horse you mentioned earlier, I asked if you were betting those. I didn't post it--those DD horses were yesterday Trace.

I'm not currently an official advertiser so can't mention any commercial products, or how I arrived @ Ocala Jim. :)

[FakeNameChanged]

That was Ocala Jim....the horse you mentioned earlier, I asked if you were betting those. I didn't post it--those DD horses were yesterday Trace.

I'm not currently an official advertiser so can't mention any commercial products, or how I arrived @ Ocala Jim. :)

Jeebus, that explains it, Yea I bet Ocala Jim. I got to the OTB at 14 min. to post and looked at your day old dd's and then looked at 1st two races and said, wth, there ain't enough horses to match your numbers. Personal stuff at home has me pretty distracted, I only decided to go around noon. Wife's been sick.

[FakeNameChanged]

Stayed at OTB until the 5th race today, here's how ESP patterns did today.
Races 1&2-No plays

Race 3-1-1/8M-Alw.
(see post #6 above when I posted originally). One regular Esp pattern and one Longshot Esp play, plus two Speed Improvement plays- As I said in previous post, this would be betting into a counter angle. Long story short: the +8/+16 Sp Improv. won and paid 10.00. Always better if these angles are combined on same horse.

Race 4-6.5f-Mdn Clm 25k
#7-Buckwellspent :Good Esp Pattern & +11 SpImpr & top SR in Mdn Claim(This is best condition) Won paid 6.40
- - 4 -1.5 - 3 -1 - 3 -2 - 2 -1.25

Race 5- 1M-Turf -Clm 35K
#1 Saturday Bliss-good Esp Pattern, l.r. 25K up to 35K today?(back class)
#5 My Good Venezuala- good Esp Pattern
2 -.5 - 3 -1.5 - 7 -3.75 - 7 -9.5
#5 won 22.60-10.00 - 7.40 The #1 was the 2-1 favorite, I did box these two, but played the 5 to win.

Race 6-Mdn Clm at 6f
2 Good Esp patterns, 2 LS Esp patterns, 4 MSW's & 3 FTSTR's....PASS

Race 7-1M-Turf Alw57K
#10 Pussy Willow-Good Esp pattern-15-1ML
- 1 -.5 - 2-.5 - 2 -1 - 3 -4
#9-Zabeta +11 Sp Improv -had to play this as well, both were only ones in race.
#10 Won 21.80 - 9.60
#9 never got involved at 30-1.

Races 8 & 9-no plays.

[CincyHorseplayer]

PLay from home brother! That way you don't miss as much for all the work you do.

[FakeNameChanged]

Race 1-1M Turf-O.C. 25k
#6-Harlansperfection- good Esp pattern & +12 Sp Improv.-been chasing this horse with SI for a while, only 2nd so far. He was eased, pulled up lame and vanned off.
So I don't bet a horse with my middle name, "Tracy" Island, if it's the wife's or kids names, or he_ _, my dog's name, I usually bet it. T.I. won 8.80.

R2-5.5f-Mdn Clm 16K
#7 Haircut Bill -good Esp pattern & Top S.R. in a mdn claimer, but 3/2 p.t. odds. I bet him and boxed with the 4 & 5, post 1961 in NorCalGreg's posts.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2077555#post2077555

I also bet the 4-Lights Out to win, who was 12-1 ML and opened at 3/2 favor early money plus he was bet way down in doubles relative to his 12-1 ML. Paid 19.60 and salvaged my exacta bets with the 7 and 5. #7 showed, and a layoff horse at 24-1 placed.

R3-5.5f-Turf-Clm 10K
#1-Cue-good Esp pattern
1 -1/2 - 1 -hd - 3 -3.5 - 4 -7
Won and paid 9.60 only esp play at 35 days

R4-6f-Clm 15K
#2-Esp patt -show 3.80 - #5-Esp patt. - place 3.80

R5-6f- MSW 40K
#1 Best Choice(poor choice of name)-LS esp pattern-ran at Mdn claim l.r.
4-1 2 -1 7 -23 7 -28.5 maybe 28 Bl's was a BIT much. He went off at 82-1 and 11 lengths from the winner.

#6-Fudge Proud -good esp. pattern and +13 Sp Impr. & top S.R 87
2 -1/2 - 2 -hd - 2 -hd - 2 -1.25
Won at 4.40

R6-1M -Turf - MSW 40K
#1 Emphatically
3 -1.5 - 4 -1.5 - 6 -3.25 - 5 -1.75 Kind of a Z pattern
Won 15.00 - 6.40 33 days

R7-1-1/16M Alw 42K
#10-Royal Source, good esp pattern 2-1 favorite LOST

R8-6f - O.C. 32K
#1 Big Louie, 4-1 ML good esp pattern & +16 Sp Impr-showed 4.80
#5 Negrito , 15-1 ML good Esp pattern
- 3 -2 - 2 -hd - 3 - 1.5 5 -5.25
Won 27.00 - 13.40 - 7.40

R9 -5.5f - Mdn Clm 40K
#4-She's Thirsty, good esp pattern but 36 days. showed 6.00
#10 - Tevere, good esp pattern
-1 -hd - 1 -hd - 4 -2 - 7 -7
Placed 6.00 showed 5.00

Datsit folks, try these spot plays at your own risk.

[FakeNameChanged]

PLay from home brother! That way you don't miss as much for all the work you do.

As I've done for YEARS, Well Hollywood racing bought out EbetUSA and said we're no longer supporting Chrome Operating system, so until I go buy yet another laptop, I'm dead in water. I worked with their tech support for about 45 minutes on phone one day, the answer was We're Sorry.

I've never bought a used laptop, but may just do that to see how that works out.

[VigorsTheGrey]

You are likely to get many horses in the same race that fit this pattern...very often a number of horses contest the early lead then fall back....what do you do when there are multiples in a race?

[NorCalGreg]

"I also bet the 4-Lights Out to win, who was 12-1 ML and opened at 3/2 favor early money plus he was bet way down in doubles relative to his 12-1 ML. Paid 19.60 and salvaged my exacta bets with the 7 and 5. #7 showed, and a layoff horse at 24-1 placed."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**The very little I thought I knew about TOTE-WATCHING....told me first-flash money meant NOTHING.

Obviously I know less than I thought I did :confused:

Right on Trace

[FakeNameChanged]

You are likely to get many horses in the same race that fit this pattern...very often a number of horses contest the early lead then fall back....what do you do when there are multiples in a race?
VTG, Likely is not very often if you want to check a few racing cards, but with multiples I do the same as I do with Speed Improv. plays. More than two, I mostly pass. If two plays, I often dutch if odds are favorable. Or play the longer odds to win and box them in an exacta. Boxing three usually costs me money for the rare time that works.

Here's a counter intuitive idea, if you've read some my stuff on multiples on Speed Improv and it applies here too: I've had 5 or 6 plays in a 7 or 8 horse field, I then take a HARD look at the ones who "don't figure" for a winner. And then it's usually PASS the race. As I said, the ideal situation, and it comes around often is to have only one good spot play and then load up.

[FakeNameChanged]

"I also bet the 4-Lights Out to win, who was 12-1 ML and opened at 3/2 favor early money plus he was bet way down in doubles relative to his 12-1 ML. Paid 19.60 and salvaged my exacta bets with the 7 and 5. #7 showed, and a layoff horse at 24-1 placed."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**The very little I thought I knew about TOTE-WATCHING....told me first-flash money meant NOTHING.

Obviously I know less than I thought I did :confused:

Right on Trace
Greg, I've read that too, and I don't care if Steve Davidowitz or Andy Beyer himself says that, It means something about 50% of the time. You take a legit 15-1 or 20-1 ML horse and it flashes at 3/2*** to open. I put a star next to his name to include him in my exactas or at least a saver bet. Someone thought enough pre-race or very early to drop $300 or 500 bucks on a horse with supposedly no chance. Inside money is often wrong, I've learned the hard way, but when it's right, it's Lights Out The Party's Over. Lights Out was also bet down in the doubles relative to other 12-1 and 15-1 ML horses. I didn't get to check all the other exactas but they were showing low odds on him with the favorite as well. Example, the 5-Twist of Lime was also 12-1 ML and his exacta odds were over hundred bucks with the 7-Haircut Bill. The 4-Lights Out was showing 32 bucks for the exacta. This reaffirmed to me,(somewhat) that his early odds flash at 3/2 meant it was more than some "crazy" retired PA guy dropping a few c-notes on him. And that is mostly the full extent of my tote knowledge, wrong a lot more than right.

One final note on Lights Out, while he didn't fill the Early Speed pattern, per se, in his one race he ran, he did flash early speed to the first call being only one length behind the leader and was only 7 BL's at the end.

[FakeNameChanged]

Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
You are likely to get many horses in the same race that fit this pattern...very often a number of horses contest the early lead then fall back....what do you do when there are multiples in a race?

VTG, Likely is not very often if you want to check a few racing cards, but with multiples I do the same as I do with Speed Improv. plays. More than two, I mostly pass. If two plays, I often dutch if odds are favorable. Or play the longer odds to win and box them in an exacta. Boxing three usually costs me money for the rare time that works.

Here's a counter intuitive idea, if you've read some my stuff on multiples on Speed Improv and it applies here too: I've had 5 or 6 plays in a 7 or 8 horse field, I then take a HARD look at the ones who "don't figure" for a winner. And then it's usually PASS the race. As I said, the ideal situation, and it comes around often is to have only one good spot play and then load up.

Here's a follow-up to your original question and one that came up today at Parx-6th race -6 furlongs-Mdn claim 40000

There were three Early speed patterns in this race, #1-Tresa's Dream-reg. pattern, #5-Roni's Laughing-reg. Esp pattern, and #9-La Camedor-L.S. pattern. The #1 was a late scratch, so now there's only two Esp patterns, good chance to dutch both the 5 and 9. and couple them with the favorite, 1A in an exacta.
#5-Roni's Laughing, 8-1ML l.r. line: 1 -1 - 1 -hd - 2 -2 - 5 -4.75
she ran 15 days ago in a MSW, good Esp pattern

#9-La Camedor, 15-1ML l.r. line: 3 -1.5 - 4 -1.25 - 5 -6.75 - 6 - 14.75
she ran 12 days ago, at same level-L.S. Esp Pattern
The 9-La Camedor won and paid 67.80-28.60 -12.20. I missed the exacta as I played the 1-5-9. The 6 ran second, and was hard to figure. I won't add any more examples at this point.