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VigorsTheGrey
11-13-2016, 08:34 PM
I don't know what to make of the ride given on 1/9 favorite Enola Gray in Del Mar's 8th race on Sunday 11-13 2016....Just totally lackluster performance, boggles the mind...

EMD4ME
11-13-2016, 08:39 PM
I don't know what to make of the ride given on 1/9 favorite Enola Gray in Del Mar's 8th race on Sunday 11-13 2016....Just totally lackluster performance, boggles the mind...


Once he gave up the advantage in the opening 1/16, he basically said: I dont care about winning on a 1/9 shot.

VigorsTheGrey
11-13-2016, 08:59 PM
Once he gave up the advantage in the opening 1/16, he basically said: I dont care about winning on a 1/9 shot.

The fractions for the 7 furlong event were:

23.17 46.17 1:10.09 Final: 1:22.53 Today

22.40 45.00 1:08.80 Final: 1:21.20 July 22 2016

Compare that to her time on , same track, same distance, above:

You are right...It just did not seem like they wanted to win the race....I don't know, you would think there would be some strategy like trying to get a little more outside so she wouldn't get bogged down in the stretch...but no, nothing...he rode like he never thought he could lose....or just didn't care if he won...maybe the horse just had a bad day...I just don't know...a real puzzle for sure...I wonder what the trainer thinks...

Lemon Drop Husker
11-13-2016, 09:09 PM
Horse didn't have it today.

Had the lead, had perfect position. Jockey wasn't choking or holding her back. The :5: came at her at the top of the stretch and she had absolutely no answer. I mean, if she would have fired back at least a little, then maybe you could say she had horse and it was a poor ride, but she had nothing.

Sometimes the dead 1/9 chalk has a bad day. Wasn't the 1st time it has happened, and certainly won't be the last.

I won't be surprised if we find out in the next couple of days that she had some kind of issue that they obviously didn't know about prior to the race.

EMD4ME
11-13-2016, 09:19 PM
Horse didn't have it today.

Had the lead, had perfect position. Jockey wasn't choking or holding her back. The :5: came at her at the top of the stretch and she had absolutely no answer. I mean, if she would have fired back at least a little, then maybe you could say she had horse and it was a poor ride, but she had nothing.

Sometimes the dead 1/9 chalk has a bad day. Wasn't the 1st time it has happened, and certainly won't be the last.

I won't be surprised if we find out in the next couple of days that she had some kind of issue that they obviously didn't know about prior to the race.

There are sprinters who burst to the lead, rate and rebrake to power home.

There are sprinters who burst to the lead and ration out their speed throughout the race without another burst late and win.

There are sprinters who burst to the lead and then try and speed pop (let it out mid race) and then hope to hold on in the lane.

This 1/9 chalk does not strike me as a stay even and then rebrake/burst home from the 1/4 kind of horse.

This chalk's main advantage was getting a 3 length lead, get the others off the bit and then come home averagely for the win.

By going so slow early, the jock made it a 4 or 5 F sprint to the wire with no head start. He BROUGHT the 5 into the race.

I beg to differ, it wasn't that this horse had a bad day. The jockey had the numbskull day.

I study chalks all day, to see how they can lose. This was one where I said: can lose if jock is passive in the 1st quarter.

Did I bet? Absolutely not. I don't know the Cali guys that well. If it was Irad, I'd bet against as he is so passive early.

Putrid ride. Subtle but putrid. IMHO.

EasyGoer89
11-13-2016, 09:35 PM
Horse didn't have it today.

Had the lead, had perfect position. Jockey wasn't choking or holding her back. The :5: came at her at the top of the stretch and she had absolutely no answer. I mean, if she would have fired back at least a little, then maybe you could say she had horse and it was a poor ride, but she had nothing.

Sometimes the dead 1/9 chalk has a bad day. Wasn't the 1st time it has happened, and certainly won't be the last.

I won't be surprised if we find out in the next couple of days that she had some kind of issue that they obviously didn't know about prior to the race.

The D'Amato stable had a horse injured and scratched out of the BC, not a race stress injury, just something that happened in the morning, same thing happened to another strong horse called toowindyto haul rox who was euthanized recently and in enola grey's last win on the turf, d'amato had another nice mare (summer time something) who was the betting favorite and was eased in the lane, not sure if any of this stuff is related, but these are all star or borderline star horses, they aren't cheap claimers, its odd.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-13-2016, 09:38 PM
There are sprinters who burst to the lead, rate and rebrake to power home.

There are sprinters who burst to the lead and ration out their speed throughout the race without another burst late and win.

There are sprinters who burst to the lead and then try and speed pop (let it out mid race) and then hope to hold on in the lane.

This 1/9 chalk does not strike me as a stay even and then rebrake/burst home from the 1/4 kind of horse.

This chalk's main advantage was getting a 3 length lead, get the others off the bit and then come home averagely for the win.

By going so slow early, the jock made it a 4 or 5 F sprint to the wire with no head start. He BROUGHT the 5 into the race.

I beg to differ, it wasn't that this horse had a bad day. The jockey had the numbskull day.

I study chalks all day, to see how they can lose. This was one where I said: can lose if jock is passive in the 1st quarter.

Did I bet? Absolutely not. I don't know the Cali guys that well. If it was Irad, I'd bet against as he is so passive early.

Putrid ride. Subtle but putrid. IMHO.

Tyler Baze is as honest a jock as you'll find on the West Coast. He has rode Enola Gray in every start of her career. Phil D'Amato is a solid trainer as well.

I highly doubt there was any 'funky' business going on in this race. She has sat 2nd her previous 2 races. Was Baze giving a crap ride in those as well?

Reality is, look back at the :5: and the splits she has ran. More than comparable to Enola Gray, and yes, maybe even better, while also showing the ability to pass horses.

The :5: was dead chalk 5 races in a row with a single win. They changed out jocks to Desormeaux who has been on fire lately. Yes, it was a huge class jump, but she was 2nd choice.

The pure reality is that Enola Gray was a massive underlay. Like yourself, I didn't have a nickel on the race, but 1/9 was simply absurd.

rsetup
11-13-2016, 09:47 PM
Looking at her previous 5 races: she didn't clear early in the most recent 3; and went wire to wire in the previous 2. She won all all of them except the one two back (not including today's race). Difficult to make the case, IMO, that she lost today because her jock didn't open up early.

EMD4ME
11-13-2016, 09:58 PM
There is a breaking point where if a speed goes TOO SLOW, they then are at a disadvantage.

Let's take a look at today's sprints at DELMAR:

Race 1 3UP MDSP 223 46 1101 1162

Race 3 2YO S MDSP 222 454 1102

Race 4 3&UP CL 16 N2L 221 452 1104 1172

Race 6 3UP F S MDSP 22 451 1044

Race 8 3UP F S Stake 23 46 110 122 2


Every single cheaper and slower race went WAY FASTER than this 1/9 shot's opening quarter. Yes, her race was at 7F, all other races were 6 and 6 1/2 but if you don't think this horse's best chance to win was taken away by a BONEHEAD ride, then there's nothing else I can say here ladies and gentlemen.

For the record, I clearly said bonehead ride. I am 100% saying it was NOT a stiff job. Just a stupid ride.

VigorsTheGrey
11-13-2016, 09:59 PM
Tyler Baze is as honest a jock as you'll find on the West Coast. He has rode Enola Gray in every start of her career. Phil D'Amato is a solid trainer as well.

I highly doubt there was any 'funky' business going on in this race. She has sat 2nd her previous 2 races. Was Baze giving a crap ride in those as well?

Reality is, look back at the :5: and the splits she has ran. More than comparable to Enola Gray, and yes, maybe even better, while also showing the ability to pass horses.

The :5: was dead chalk 5 races in a row with a single win. They changed out jocks to Desormeaux who has been on fire lately. Yes, it was a huge class jump, but she was 2nd choice.

The pure reality is that Enola Gray was a massive underlay. Like yourself, I didn't have a nickel on the race, but 1/9 was simply absurd.

I don't know..the write-up in the DRF by Brad Free said that Enola "will be paid to work seven furlongs"....turns out, that was exactly what she did, as the running looked more like a workout that a race....Both Brad Free and the trainer were very high on her chances...read the article....the trainer must be puzzled by the effort as well...

Lemon Drop Husker
11-13-2016, 10:36 PM
There is a breaking point where if a speed goes TOO SLOW, they then are at a disadvantage.

Let's take a look at today's sprints at DELMAR:

Race 1 3UP MDSP 223 46 1101 1162

Race 3 2YO S MDSP 222 454 1102

Race 4 3&UP CL 16 N2L 221 452 1104 1172

Race 6 3UP F S MDSP 22 451 1044

Race 8 3UP F S Stake 23 46 110 122 2


Every single cheaper and slower race went WAY FASTER than this 1/9 shot's opening quarter. Yes, her race was at 7F, all other races were 6 and 6 1/2 but if you don't think this horse's best chance to win was taken away by a BONEHEAD ride, then there's nothing else I can say here ladies and gentlemen.

For the record, I clearly said bonehead ride. I am 100% saying it was NOT a stiff job. Just a stupid ride.

WHY was she supposed to be guaranteed a 2 to 3 length lead?

Point out to me EXACTLY how she was supposed to have an insurmountable lead in the race today.

Other than your opinion, put some factual information out there. And while you're at it, make sure to include the stats for the :5:.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-13-2016, 10:45 PM
I don't know..the write-up in the DRF by Brad Free said that Enola "will be paid to work seven furlongs"....turns out, that was exactly what she did, as the running looked more like a workout that a race....Both Brad Free and the trainer were very high on her chances...read the article....the trainer must be puzzled by the effort as well...

And you let other people make your opinion for you? With your money on the line?

IF you are a serious player, you take their input and their opinion, but you then rationalize all the information available to you and YOU make your decision.

VigorsTheGrey
11-14-2016, 12:13 AM
And you let other people make your opinion for you? With your money on the line?

IF you are a serious player, you take their input and their opinion, but you then rationalize all the information available to you and YOU make your decision.

You have to be a computer to "rationalize" all the input available nowadays...I wish the pundits were more reliable with their picks....there are some I think keeping an eye on is OK....like Jeff seigal, Jeff at woodbine, I hear TLG is pretty good....but you are right about making your own decisions regardless....like I heard someone say, maybe lamboguy, "how to tune out the pundits and become acutely aware of the intangibles hidden in every race....."

Lemon Drop Husker
11-14-2016, 12:16 AM
.I wish the pundits were more reliable with their picks......."

Seriously? Just quit if that is the information you need.

VigorsTheGrey
11-14-2016, 12:55 AM
Seriously? Just quit if that is the information you need.

The thing is that there ARE people close to this game that do have OK analysis....its a place to start...I'm going strictly off of the DRF pps and bris pps for most of my info...I also like to use visual handicapping but this is very limited in a simulcast setting....I'm not a pro nor do I pretend to be...I lose money most of the time but do enjoy playing and following the sport...it really is my only sporting passion...I do it because I love it and don't expect to come out a winner....and so no, I'm not really a serious player....but no, I'll never quit the sport....I'm like an aging jockey who doesn't quite know what to do with his life.... It kind of gets into your blood...but at least I don't drink or smoke....

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 06:15 AM
And you let other people make your opinion for you? With your money on the line?

IF you are a serious player, you take their input and their opinion, but you then rationalize all the information available to you and YOU make your decision.

This, I agree with 10000000000000% :ThmbUp:

Getting ready for work, didn't ignore your other post pal.

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 06:17 AM
The thing is that there ARE people close to this game that do have OK analysis....its a place to start...I'm going strictly off of the DRF pps and bris pps for most of my info...I also like to use visual handicapping but this is very limited in a simulcast setting....I'm not a pro nor do I pretend to be...I lose money most of the time but do enjoy playing and following the sport...it really is my only sporting passion...I do it because I love it a
nd don't expect to come out a winner....and so no, I'm not really a serious player....but no, I'll never quit the sport....I'm like an aging jockey who doesn't quite know what to do with his life.... It kind of gets into your blood...but at least I don't drink or smoke....

LDH is just trying to make you better. Its called tough love .

outofthebox
11-14-2016, 06:52 AM
Tank was half full today. I agree with the likes of you that want the speed horse to utilize it better, but she was just not that sharp today for some reason. No fight in the last 1/8th. Flesh and blood they are....

VigorsTheGrey
11-14-2016, 11:21 AM
LDH is just trying to make you better. Its called tough love .

Thanks EMD, I'll take any love I can get at this point....by the way I really appreciate your posts....I think they are very insightful..... I think they should have opened up with her to show the :5: who was the boss today...horses are herd animals....they tend to follow the leader.....with a horse with Enola's talent that superiority should be demonstrated early on....I agree with you....she went too slow early and pulled the :5: into the race which basically made it a sprint to the wire....

DeltaLover
11-14-2016, 11:30 AM
Enola Gray was one of the worst 1-9 shots I have seen for a very long time. These type of favorites, especially when found in a short fields are great for betting purposes because they are pushing the odds of all of their competitors to become overlays.

elhelmete
11-14-2016, 11:35 AM
Enola Gray was one of the worst 1-9 shots I have seen for a very long time. These type of favorites, especially when found in a short fields are great for betting purposes because they are pushing the odds of all of their competitors to become overlays.

Yup.

More than a few people agreed before the race that EG seems like she's tapering off her earlier form...hopefully will come back.

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 11:56 AM
Enola Gray was one of the worst 1-9 shots I have seen for a very long time. These type of favorites, especially when found in a short fields are great for betting purposes because they are pushing the odds of all of their competitors to become overlays.

Absolutely agree. I think she was precocious and is going backwards or staying flat in terms of peak performance capability.

I kind of wish I bet the race/pick 4. But I have a feeling I would've leaned on the 1 horse and lost. Nevertheless, great betting opportunity with heavy chalks.

DeltaLover
11-14-2016, 12:03 PM
Absolutely agree. I think she was precocious and is going backwards or staying flat in terms of peak performance capability.

I kind of wish I bet the race/pick 4. But I have a feeling I would've leaned on the 1 horse and lost. Nevertheless, great betting opportunity with heavy chalks.

I have had both the P4 and the Double using the :5: and :1: in the race of EG and SINGLING the :3: in the last leg having the chance for a long digit score.

The :3: seemed like a winner to me when crossing the 1/16 pole but the :2: closed like a rocket completing my disastrous weekend!

Spalding No!
11-14-2016, 12:21 PM
Enola Gray was already exposed at Los Alamitos as a 1/5 favorite. The hype around this filly early in the year even drew comparisons to Songbird. Its laughable. Her claim to fame is beating up on stablemates in 4-5 horse fields. In fact, she was entered after her maiden win in an allowance race earlier this year, set at 4/5 on the morning line, scared off a couple of runners who scratched on the morning of the race, and then was promptly scratched herself leaving a 3-horse field won by...you guessed it...another stablemate.

Nice horse, but at this point she hasn't lived up to expectations and looks like the classic state-bred terror that can't make the jump to open company. See Smokey's Image, Acceptance, etc.

Why the connections continue to focus on sprints when her pedigree is geared to two turns, has won impressively at a route, and also regrouped nicely on the turf in her prior outing is also a question mark.

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 12:21 PM
I have had both the P4 and the Double using the :5: and :1: in the race of EG and SINGLING the :3: in the last leg having the chance for a long digit score.

The :3: seemed like a winner to me when crossing the 1/16 pole but the :2: closed like a rocket completing my disastrous weekend!

Your buddy told me you had thousands taken away in the shadow of the wire.... :bang:

If its any consolation, someone got a million on your loss at the wire....

Hopefully you get that as good karma one day soon

DeltaLover
11-14-2016, 12:26 PM
Your buddy told me you had thousands taken away in the shadow of the wire.... :bang:

Correct :bang: :bang: :bang:

Nitro
11-14-2016, 07:16 PM
I don't know what to make of the ride given on 1/9 favorite Enola Gray in Del Mar's 8th race on Sunday 11-13 2016....Just totally lackluster performance, boggles the mind... The fractions for the 7 furlong event were:
23.17 46.17 1:10.09 Final: 1:22.53 Today
22.40 45.00 1:08.80 Final: 1:21.20 July 22 2016

Compare that to her time on , same track, same distance, above:

You are right...It just did not seem like they wanted to win the race....I don't know, you would think there would be some strategy like trying to get a little more outside so she wouldn't get bogged down in the stretch...but no, nothing...he rode like he never thought he could lose....or just didn't care if he won...maybe the horse just had a bad day...I just don't know...a real puzzle for sure...I wonder what the trainer thinks...
Here’s a thought! When you and others around here can get your heads out of the mindset that these animals are machines and their riders are robots, then and only then can your perception of the game change. Humans (from the trainers to the jockeys and yes, even bettors) have the potential of making errors and of course the race horses themselves are always in various stages of health and conditioning. So any notion of what happened in the past being duplicated (or even enhanced) in the future is an entirely subjective supposition.

As most have agreed a 1/9 shot doesn’t offer much in the way of value as a win play, but I’m not sure how many noticed what a simple Exacta box paid. Now if you really believed that Enola Gray was vulnerable there was some great value if anyone bothered to monitor the will-pays! Apparently not many did!

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 07:29 PM
Here’s a thought! When you and others around here can get your heads out of the mindset that these animals are machines and their riders are robots, then and only then can your perception of the game change. Humans (from the trainers to the jockeys and yes, even bettors) have the potential of making errors and of course the race horses themselves are always in various stages of health and conditioning. So any notion of what happened in the past being duplicated (or even enhanced) in the future is an entirely subjective supposition.

As most have agreed a 1/9 shot doesn’t offer much in the way of value as a win play, but I’m not sure how many noticed what a simple Exacta box paid. Now if you really believed that Enola Gray was vulnerable there was some great value if anyone bothered to monitor the will-pays! Apparently not many did!

You, sir, are annoying. :mad:

Horse gets bet, you say "the board spoke".

Horse/combo doesnt get bet, you say "there's value".

:sleeping:

Nitro
11-14-2016, 08:22 PM
[/B]

You, sir, are annoying. :mad:

Horse gets bet, you say "the board spoke".

Horse/combo doesnt get bet, you say "there's value".

:sleeping:Just stating the facts buddy! I could really care less how my posts affect your simple mind.
If you can’t read the board that’s your problem.

I know it’s hard for you to swallow, but I’d rather follow the money than anything you can up with. I see a lot of your B.S., but its funny I never see you sharing your so-called expertise in the Selection forum. What are you afraid of? Being exposed!

Your constant trolling and personal attacks are a real blessing to this forum. Go getem’ champ!

EMD4ME
11-14-2016, 09:08 PM
Just stating the facts buddy! I could really care less how my posts affect your simple mind.
If you can’t read the board that’s your problem.

I know it’s hard for you to swallow, but I’d rather follow the money than anything you can up with. I see a lot of your B.S., but its funny I never see you sharing your so-called expertise in the Selection forum. What are you afraid of? Being exposed!

Your constant trolling and personal attacks are a real blessing to this forum. Go getem’ champ!

You critiqued the crowd, I responded, Mr. Monday Night Nitro.

Don't blame the defender as YOU opened the door.

I post pre-race as needed and my pre race prattle is pure gold.

If you can't read my pre race crushes, that's your problem. They're out there quite often.

Unlike you, I can't afford to give out the plays of the day as my plays collect tens of thousands AND by giving out key horses can have my pick 5 pay $10,000 instead of $20,000. You, have nothing to worry about, with your 3 horse $2 to win dutches and $1 : 1 4 / 2356 8 horse boxes.

I'll make you a friendly wager. I bet you that my 2016 WITHHOLDING, not W-2 G's, but MY 25% FEDERAL WITHHOLDING, is equal or greater to your YEARLY HANDLE.

Next time you critique this crowd for missing the tote clues on a future 1/9 shot losing, please do so in advance.