HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SAT 11/12

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 10 races with 8 on Turf and 2 on Awt.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SAT. EST

TVG is offering live video for at least 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

[parlay]

Trying to stay up and join you. LETS MAKE SOME MONEY :jump: :jump:

[Nitro]

Trying to stay up and join you. LETS MAKE SOME MONEY :jump: :jump:That's what it's ALL about Parlay! Tonight's card is one of the toughest I've seen in a while. Let's see how it goes.
GL tonight!

[FakeNameChanged]

Nitro, I downloaded the pp's and program for 1st race. Where might the ML be listed on there? It's not obvious from looking at it. Thanks.
p.s. Is that what they call pre-sell odds?

[Nitro]

Race 1
Horse No. Horse Name Weight Trainer Jockey Draw Odds Initial Tips Index Race Day Tips Index
1 DANEWIN EXPRESS 133 Y S Tsui Purton 11 7.4 10.9 17.6
2 MALAYAN PEARL 132 D Cruz Chiong 6 12 10.9 9.5
3 BEST JADE TRIUMPH 131 A Lee Prebble 5 13 31.2 25.6
4 TELEPHATIA 129 A Lee De Sousa 2 6.3 8.6 6.6
5 CHOICE EXCHEQUER 128 C H Yip Schofield 3 8.3 6.6 6
7 MY FOLKS 123 C W Chang Murphy 9 38 99 99
8 LOYAL CRAFTSMAN 119 D E Ferraris Cliperton 1 10 99 26.2
9 WIN CHANCE 119 A Lee Whyte 8 15 6.2 8.9
10 HIGH SPEED METRO 116 L Ho Moreira 4 3.0 3 3
11 ENJOY THE GAME 115 P F Yiu Chadwick 7 20 33.6 78.6
12 HOLY STAR 113 D J Hall Teetan 10 14 43.7 44.4

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any live selections for Hong Kong this morning.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.
There are 4 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #7 & #9 Should only be played Live.

R#1 - 2000M (10F) Turf…..1-5 W/ 2-4-10-3 .......12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 with possibly of #4 moving up Live)

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf........2-1 W/ 5-4-11-9 …...12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 with possibly of #4 moving up Live)

R#3 - 1650M (8.25) Awt......7-3 W/ 2-9-10-5.........1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 with possibly of #9 or #10 moving up Live)

R#4 - 1400M (7F) Turf........2-1 W/ 5-9-10-14…...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 with possibly of #9 or #10 moving up Live)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Awt….1-3 W/ 4-2-7-5.........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 with possibly of #5 moving up Live)

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf.........1-8 W/ 6-5-10-9……..2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 with possibly of #5 moving up Live)

R#7 - 1000M (5F) Turf…....3-2 W/ 9-14-11-5.........3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 possibly moving up Live)

R#8 -1400M (7F) Turf.........1-3 W/ 8-2-9-12 ….....3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 with possibly moving up Live)

R#9 - 1200M (6F) Turf.......4-1 W/ 5-6-7-10-11.......4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: any one entry #6 thru #11 possibly moving up Live)

R#10 - 1600M (8F) Turf......1-3 W/ 4-8-10-6...........4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #11 with possibly of #8 moving up Live)

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
(See previous HK threads for download)

[parlay]

Thanks and GOOD LUCK

[Nitro]

Nitro, I downloaded the pp's and program for 1st race. Where might the ML be listed on there? It's not obvious from looking at it. Thanks.
p.s. Is that what they call pre-sell odds?
I've posted what I use for Race #1. (Note: Odds shown) I'd post more races but the formatting is a nightmare.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Anxiously awaiting Jenny to tell me every horse looks "fit" and good. :lol:

[AltonKelsey]

Usually 9 of the 12 will have a 'place chance'

7 in the first at 30-1( ran 2nd, beaten 1/2 L) was well bet late, but too late for anyone to actually use the info.

Just noticed, the 2nd is the

PANASONIC FRONT LOADING WASHING MACHINE HANDICAP

Guaranteed you clean up!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Usually 9 of the 12 will have a 'place chance'

:lol:

Jenny rolling with a Quinella of 8 horses over 12 horses. She can't miss.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

LDH

:2::9:/:1::2::7::9:

:9: across

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Usually 9 of the 12 will have a 'place chance'

7 in the first at 30-1( ran 2nd, beaten 1/2 L) was well bet late, but too late for anyone to actually use the info.

Just noticed, the 2nd is the

PANASONIC FRONT LOADING WASHING MACHINE HANDICAP

Guaranteed you clean up!

If I win, do I get one of those?:lol:

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-5 W/ 2-4-10-3...........Results: 10-7-8-5 (5th choice – Out Early & In Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 7.6/1 ) – 5 ( 8.2/1 ) – 2 ( 13/1 ) - ($36.00) – ($36.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
7.6 8.2 13.0 BET PRF
$17 $18 $28
$14 $13 $9 $36 $84 234%
$120 $120 $126
0 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live

[AltonKelsey]

and now the
PANASONIC BREAD MAKER HANDICAP

where Nitro's profits will surely rise.


The computer bettors absolutely send it in late, they crush certain combinations. We know that are betting a LOT of money as the pools are large and moving the prices at the end is no mean feat .

[Lemon Drop Husker]

and now the
PANASONIC BREAD MAKER HANDICAP

where Nitro's profits will surely rise.


The computer bettors absolutely send it in late, they crush certain combinations.

Oh Hellz yeah. It is the yeast he could do.

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2-1 W/ 5-4-11-9...........Results: 1-6-5-2 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.3/1 ) – 1 ( 2.1/1 ) – 5 ( 6/1 ) - $39.00 – $3.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 6.0 6.3 BET PRF
$6 $14 $15
$30 $12 $12 $54 $39 72%
$93 $84 $88
1 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[AltonKelsey]

Oh Hellz yeah. It is the yeast he could do.

Good one. Handicapping this one is a process of separating the Wheat from the chaff.

Nitro 2 for 2 now (live), a few more and he has to stop winning to preserve the profits.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not gonna lie, that :12: looks like the boss. :eek:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3::10::12: somehow someway.

Toss the :7: in there as well.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Good one. Handicapping this one is a process of separating the Wheat from the chaff.

Nitro 2 for 2 now (live), a few more and he has to stop winning to preserve the profits.

Keep fresh.

The Panasonic nanoe Hair Dryer Handicap is on tap.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The biggest pools in the world pay like 5 horse fields at Golden Gate. :lol:

[Nitro]

R#3 - 7-3 W/ 2-9-10-5............. Results: 7-2-1-4 (Top choice Early - $41 Quin & Live)
Dutch – 7 ( 5/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 2 ( 7.2/1 ) - $99.00 – $102.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.0 7.2 12.0 BET PRF
$12 $16 $26
$26 $19 $12 $57 $99 174%
$156 $156 $156
2 for 3 Early & 3 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

The biggest pools in the world pay like 5 horse fields at Golden Gate. :lol:
Why in the world you worry about payouts :confused: :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Why in the world you worry about payouts :confused: :D

Seriously?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:7::11::13::14:

:11: to win

[Parkview_Pirate]

Race 4 - gonna do a fly by, looking for the :9: each way to be charging late.

Good luck for the rest of the card, gents.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Why in the world you worry about payouts :confused: :D

True.

Just bet chalk.

14 horses, 20 horses, 4 horses in the States. They all pay the same. :lol:

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-1 W/ 5-9-10-14.........Results: 1-2-5-11 (2nd choice - $16 Quin & $71 Tri & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 5.3/1 ) – 1 ( 3.5/1 ) – 5 ( 4.3/1 ) - $51.00 – $153.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 4.3 5.3 BET PRF
$9 $11 $13
$26 $22 $18 $66 $51 77%
$117 $117 $113
3 for 4 Early & 4 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

Race 4 - gonna do a fly by, looking for the :9: each way to be charging late.

Good luck for the rest of the card, gents.
Morning Parkview!
GL today!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Jenny comments: :lol:

:8: "fit" and "carlm"
:5: "fit" looks good
:3: always looks good "fit" look really really well
:1: strong bodied, nicely behaved, hard to beat
:2: stiff walking, healthy, just a "place" chance
:4: in form horse, on his toes, very very "fit", gotta leave him in
:6: "fit" relaxed, he's "fit" nothing wrong with him
:7: strong bodied type "fit" enough, "place" line
:9: hot, very hot and sweaty, fitness not too big an issue a "watch"
:10: nugetty strong type, awkward looking, not outstanding but OK
:11: huge odds, athletic type, perfectly OK, good for him, looks really well
:12: looks well, he's "fit" he's strong, he's sensible
:13: a quite "fit' looking horse
:14: looked OK not outstanding

Tally: Only 8 "fit" horses

Jenny top 4: :3::1::11::4:

LDH will Dutch :6::12:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Chalk chalk.

:D

[Nitro]

Jenny comments: :lol:

Tally: Only 8 "fit" horses

Jenny top 4: :3::1::11::4:

LDH will Dutch :6::12:
And you're amused by Jenny's picks? :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And you're amused by Jenny's picks? :D

Yes.

Any guy from off the street can pick the top 2 favorites. Heavy favorites at that.

Then again, he didn't know if they were "fit" or not, or if they were "place" worthy.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And you're amused by Jenny's picks? :D

5 races in, rolling into 14 horse fields, and the biggest winner is $10.10.

This is a ****ing joke along with a single jock winning 3 of the 5.

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-3 W/ 4-2-7-5......... Results: 4-1-7-6 (3rd choice - $9 Quin & $332 Tri Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.6/1 ) – 3 ( 13/1 ) – 4 ( 2/1 ) - $70.00 – $223.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 4.6 13.0 BET PRF
$6 $11 $28
$56 $30 $12 $98 $70 71%
$168 $168 $168
4 for 5 Early & 5 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

5 races in, rolling into 14 horse fields, and the biggest winner is $10.10.

This is a ****ing joke along with a single jock winning 3 of the 5.
The ONLY thing that's a joke so far are your mighty selections!
So keepem' coming! I'm enjoying the entertainment. :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The ONLY thing that's a joke so far are your mighty selections!
So keepem' coming! I'm enjoying the entertainment. :ThmbUp:

Keep dutching and telling us you are winning! :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

LDH:

Dutching :6::8::9::lol: (I haz tote skillz)

Nah. I'll actually take the :2::10:

[Nitro]

LDH:

Dutching :6::8::9::lol: (I haz tote skillz)

Nah. I'll actually take the :2::10:
You must have been watch them slam the #2 from 11/1 to 5.3/1
Now you're catching on! Good for you! :jump:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You must have been watch them slam the #2 from 11/1 to 5.3/1
Now you're catching on! Good for you! :jump:

More pissed about my unfruitful decision between the :10: and :14: :bang:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Panasonic Smaller Heat Pump-Air Handicap

Lots of fine appliances on the line today.

[Nitro]

R#6 - 1-8 W/ 6-5-10-9......... Results: 2-14-3-1 (Out Early & Moved up Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 32/1 ) – 8 ( 2.4/1 ) – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) - ($47.00) – $176.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 7.1 32.0 BET PRF
$7 $16 $66
$31 $13 $3 $47 $58 124%
$105 $105 $99
4 for 6 Early & 6 for 6 Live

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R7

:5::9:/:5::9::11::14:

That is :5::9: on top with :5::9::11::14: to finish out the EX. Doing a :5::9:/:5::9::11::14:/:5::3::9::11::14: TRi

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R7

:5::9:/:5::9::11::14:

That is :5::9: on top with :5::9::11::14: to finish out the EX. Doing a :5::9:/:5::9::11::14:/:5::3::9::11::14: TRi

Had some tough noses go against me today.

I earned this one. Won't pay like the others would have, but dammit...., I'll take it! :)

[Nitro]

R#7 - 3-2 W/ 9-14-11-5……….Results: 5-14-9-8 (6th choice Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 2.4/1 ) – 2 ( 10/1 ) – 9 ( 8/1 ) - ($37.00) – $139.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 8.0 10.0 BET PRF
$7 $18 $22
$22 $8 $7 $37 $38 102%
$75 $75 $75
4 for 7 Early & 6 for 7 Live

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R8

:2::9::13:/:1::2::3::5::6::9::13:

Brutally tough race

I'll Dutch :2::13:

Tri :2::13:/:1::2::9::13:/:1::2::3::5::9::13:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R8

:2::9::13:/:1::2::3::5::6::9::13:

Brutally tough race

I'll Dutch :2::13:

Tri :2::13:/:1::2::9::13:/:1::2::3::5::9::13:

Doubtful I broke even. :faint:

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-3 W/ 8-2-9-12........ Results: 9-3-1-12 (5th choice Out Early & $13 Quin & $117 Tri Live )
Dutch – 1 ( 3.8/1 ) – 3 ( 2.5/1 ) – 8 ( 25/1 ) - ($46.00) – $93.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 3.8 26.0 BET PRF
$7 $10 $54
$25 $18 $3 $46 $42 90%
$88 $86 $84
4 for 8 Early & 6 for 8 Live

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If I were 5'7" and 280 pounds, I do believe Jenny would call me fit.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R9

:5::7::9:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 4-1 W/ 5-6-7-10-11.......... Results: 4-10-8-14 (Top choice Early $41 Quin & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 5.3/1 ) – 1 ( 59/1 ) – 5 ( 90/1 ) - $441.00 – $534.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.3 59.0 90.0 BET PRF
$13 $120 $182
$86 $9 $6 $101 $441 436%
$542 $540 $546
5 for 9 Early & 7 for 9 Live

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-3 W/ 4-8-10-6......... Results: 9-6-1-4 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.9/1 ) – 3 ( 18/1 ) – 4 ( 11/1 ) - ($68.00) – $466.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.9 11.0 18.0 BET PRF
$12 $24 $38
$38 $19 $12 $68 $156 227%
$224 $224 $224
5 for 10 Early & 7 for 10 Live

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting only 5 out of 10 races (50%) still produced a profit of $466 after betting $610 or a 76% Net profit margin. (A 7.6 ROI). The Live final selections turned out to be even more rewarding with hit rate of 70%.

When played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.

It’s not just about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.

[AltonKelsey]

Lemon, we should just give Nitro 10k each and have him double it for us every week.

[Nitro]

Lemon, we should just give Nitro 10k each and have him double it for us every week.Instead of providing some positive input, all you seem to do is troll with your insolent BS. You’re obviously having problems with your own game. And that’s too bad. If you were smart enough you might want to follow just follow along and make those big bets yourself if you’ve got the balls. But I highly doubt that. You don’t even have guts to post a selection or too. You've got real a problem buddy and it starts with that resentful attitude. Grow up!

[AltonKelsey]

I guess you dont want the 10k then .

I wanted to follow your selections, but too many have LIVE modifications, that seem to appear only after the race is over.

[traynor]

R#9 - 4-1 W/ 5-6-7-10-11.......... Results: 4-10-8-14 (Top choice Early $41 Quin & Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 5.3/1 ) – 1 ( 59/1 ) – 5 ( 90/1 ) - $441.00 – $534.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.3 59.0 90.0 BET PRF
$13 $120 $182
$86 $9 $6 $101 $441 436%
$542 $540 $546
5 for 9 Early & 7 for 9 Live

I am a bit confused about your use of the dutching calculator. In earlier races, you are wagering (at least on paper, for illustrative purposes) relatively small(er) amounts. In the ninth race, the amount wagered is substantially higher--and won. Why the increase in bet size for that race?

I understand proportional dutch wagers. I am curious about the increase in wager size for that race.

[Nitro]

I am a bit confused about your use of the dutching calculator. In earlier races, you are wagering (at least on paper, for illustrative purposes) relatively small(er) amounts. In the ninth race, the amount wagered is substantially higher--and won. Why the increase in bet size for that race?

I understand proportional dutch wagers. I am curious about the increase in wager size for that race.
Well, that race as I pointed out was extremely unique because of the huge difference in the odds of the 3 Early selections to be Dutched. There’s no real confusion when you can understand the large gap between the entry selected with lowest odds and those of the other 2 entries. As I mentioned because the static tote analysis is a pre-race speculation there’s no way of knowing what the final odds might turn out to be.

In this particular case I actually reduced the amounts to be wagered substantially only because I felt it would be more reasonable for someone to make that type of wager. Here’s what the actual Dutch calculator called for: (Please note what the Profit was!)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.9 59.0 90.0 BET PRF
$14 $120 $182
$182 $21 $14 $217 $1,039 479%
$1,256 $1,256 $1,256

[traynor]

Got it. Thank you for the explanation and clarification. The bottom row ($542 $540 $546) lists the target amounts for that race, that recover previous losses and show a profit? If so, that would answer a question I just posted on another thread about starting a day in the red. In such a case, larger initial wagers would be required in the earlier races?

[traynor]

Having developed a lot of software applications involving calculations, I sometimes tend to expect (and look for) complexity that makes me seem ignorant when confronted by fairly simple things.

The variable "amount bet" is input? The app distributes that wager according to the odds input for the three selections, then calculates potential profit if one of those entries wins? The three sets of odds AND the amount bet are input? I have been trying to solve the mystery of how the app generated the amount to bet, when there is (apparently) no mystery.

It may be that because I am using OpenOffice Calc (rather than Excel) something important is missing. I am expecting an input of amount (aggregate of desired profit and previous losses), with bet size generated, rather than entering bet size.

I apologize for my lack of experience with Excel. I am still trying to understand the reason for the increased bet size(s) in the ninth race.

[AltonKelsey]

Didn't realize (not made clear?) that there was a due be component to this. That accounts for the consistency of profit, assuming a high percentage of winning plays.

All you'd need are 3 or 4 winners a night and you'd pretty much never lose unless all the losers came late in the card and you had to carry over the loss.

Maybe thats why he stops after a win streak, so as to preserve the 'gain' .

Still, personally, less interested in the betting gimmicks than how an early look at the pools would give you some great insight into winners.

HK does have some unique aspects to it that MIGHT explain some of it. Still , if there was something with that much 'edge' , I'd think it would have been arbed out long ago.

[Nitro]

Didn't realize (not made clear?) that there was a due be component to this. That accounts for the consistency of profit, assuming a high percentage of winning plays.

All you'd need are 3 or 4 winners a night and you'd pretty much never lose unless all the losers came late in the card and you had to carry over the loss.

Maybe thats why he stops after a win streak, so as to preserve the 'gain' .

Still, personally, less interested in the betting gimmicks than how an early look at the pools would give you some great insight into winners.

HK does have some unique aspects to it that MIGHT explain some of it. Still , if there was something with that much 'edge' , I'd think it would have been arbed out long ago.I don’t get what’s meant by a “due be component”. The consistency of profit is based simply on the Profit % illustrated after entering the odds of the 3 Early into the calculator. If the O.A. selection process is hitting at a proficiency rate of 50% and you don’t accept any Profit % less than 50% you technically can’t lose.

Again, if your historic proficiency rate is 50% and you’ve already hit 5 of 7 races on a 10 race card (50%), why push the envelope or even get greedy by trying to improve that proficiency. There’s no betting gimmickry involved. Instead of playing 1 entry to Win you’re simply playing 3 with the intention of making the same identical profit no matter which one wins.

I believe this unique selection process has never been identified before, because first of all, how many players rely solely on the active tote to begin with? Then taking that to another level by doing a preliminary tote analysis without any money being bet is something I doubt anyone else has even attempted. I certainly won’t divulge its secret, because there just may be others who are doing the very same thing without making it public. It won’t be long before I also discontinue the posting and sharing of these HK selections. There’s just too much time involved preparing the posts.

[AltonKelsey]

Mistyped, thats DUE BET component. Is that correct or not?


When you talk about preliminary tote, I assume you are referring to the POOLS that have money in them in advance. Not the ML.


"Then taking that to another level by doing a preliminary tote analysis without any money being bet "

This implies you're using the ML , or do you mean very 'little' money.

[ROK]

Hi Folks.

Here's a possible solution to the ongoing confusion regarding "dutching":
If Hong Kong uses the 'decimal odds' quote--and if this 'decimal odds' quote is being used in the formulas to produce the ROI without the proper adjustment, there will be an accidental overestimation of the ROI. The 'decimal odds' quote includes the original stake unlike the odds quoted here in the US. Hence, the odds in Hong Kong will read 4-1 and in the US it will read 3-1. Please accept my sincere apologies if my suggestion does not apply here. Thank you.

[AltonKelsey]

I would sincerely hope not. If that was true then this whole exercise would be absurd. :rolleyes:

But I thinks its notable that this is only your 4th post since 2005, so this must be interesting or you're just back from a long Safari.

[Nitro]

Hi Folks.

Here's a possible solution to the ongoing confusion regarding "dutching":
If Hong Kong uses the 'decimal odds' quote--and if this 'decimal odds' quote is being used in the formulas to produce the ROI without the proper adjustment, there will be an accidental overestimation of the ROI. The 'decimal odds' quote includes the original stake unlike the odds quoted here in the US. Hence, the odds in Hong Kong will read 4-1 and in the US it will read 3-1. Please accept my sincere apologies if my suggestion does not apply here. Thank you.
I appreciate your suggestion concerning the difference in the way HK provides the odds versus the way they’re presented here. I offer the following 3 Dutch calculated bets with entries of similar odds values. Please note the Profit % in each case:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 4.5 6.0 BET PRF
$8 $11 $14
$14 $10 $8 $32 $24 74%
$56 $56 $56

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 4.2 5.9 BET PRF
$8 $10 $14
$14 $11 $8 $33 $25 74%
$58 $58 $58

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 4.6 6.1 BET PRF
$8 $11 $14
$14 $10 $8 $32 $23 74%
$55 $55 $55
There are minor odds variations, but the bottom line is that with or without the decimal odds there’s very little difference. In fact, the margin of Profit % is the same. The purpose of the entire Dutch betting exercise is to produce the same profit no matter which one wins by betting differently on each entry based on their combined odds.

[AltonKelsey]

What he means is are you counting a 2-1 as a 3-1 shot, an 1-1 shot as a 2-1 shot.

I would think not.

[ROK]

Thanks Nitro for your reply.

But this 1 point extra in odds will greatly impact your ROI and bottom line in any flat bet analysis. Dutching can't protect you from that no matter how it is done. If you were using results that suggested you hit a 5-1 instead of 4-1, your ROI will be overestimated. It is still possible that your method will show a nice profit, but you need to recalculate based on the lower payoffs.

[Nitro]

Thanks Nitro for your reply.

But this 1 point extra in odds will greatly impact your ROI and bottom line in any flat bet analysis. Dutching can't protect you from that no matter how it is done. If you were using results that suggested you hit a 5-1 instead of 4-1, your ROI will be overestimated. It is still possible that your method will show a nice profit, but you need to recalculate based on the lower payoffs.You’re absolutely correct when it comes to flat Win bets. However, with a Dutch Win betting I disagree.
There’s an immediate slight advantage, because as the odds drop on 1 entry they will subsequently rise on the others.
Example of a Dutch bet made at 5mins to post:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.6 9.0 BET PRF
$10 $13 $20
$20 $15 $10 $45 $55 121%
$100 $100 $100
Example of a Dutch bet results after the race is run (actual return odds):
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 5.9 11.0 BET PRF
$8 $14 $24
$24 $14 $8 $46 $50 109%
$96 $96 $96
So, although the odds dropped a full point on one entry, they rose on the others. There is only a 12% difference in the margin of Profit%. That’s why no matter how the odds on the 3 chosen entries may fluctuate I always use the final odds for my Dutching demonstration. Please keep in mind that while this does happen on occasion, it also occurs where the odds of all 3 chosen entries rise by post time to significantly increase the Profit margin. From a Live betting perspective, it all seems to balance out when evaluating the O.A. results.

Comparing that to a flat Win bet of say $10 on a 4/1 shot coming in at 3/1 means a loss of 25% in the actual Profit return margin (or Twice as much as the above Dutch examples)

[ROK]

Hi Nitro,

So if you were to go back and recalculate your results based on a 1 point drop in win odds, you believe that your bottom line and ROI would be the same?

[traynor]

I am still unclear about the bottom row ($542 $540 $546) in the 9th race (and the bottom rows of $100 $100 $100 and $96 $96 $96 in the examples above). Is this a value you input, or is it a value generated by the app, extrapolated from the bet size you enter? Basically, do you enter the bet size, or do you enter another value that outputs the bet size? If the latter, what is the bet size derived from?

[Nitro]

Hi Nitro,

So if you were to go back and recalculate your results based on a 1 point drop in win odds, you believe that your bottom line and ROI would be the same?Hi ROK
If I go back and recalculate the results posted (by changing the odds up or down), I would technically be fudging those Actual numbers. That’s because the final Dutching calculations shown are based Only on the Actual odds at post time.

If there was a 1 point drop across the board (among all 3 of the chosen entries), of course there would a difference in the ROI because Profit margins would be lowered. As follows:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$21 $16 $10 $47 $58 123%
$105 $105 $105
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 4.5 8.5 BET PRF
$8 $11 $19
$19 $14 $8 $41 $35 86%
$76 $76 $76 Fortunately this type of odds reduction across the board rarely happens. The odds will fluctuate, but as I’ve mentioned, because the betting pools are extraordinarily large then tend to be very stable during the final minutes before post time. Of course there is always a possibility of 1 or 2 races on any card that demonstrate unusual late betting.

[ROK]

Hi Nitro,

Tabula rasa: I'm not questioning your methodology -- because it looks to me like you have an edge. BUT...if you are using odds that contain the original stake to calculate your ROI.., then you are overstating -- unintentionally -- your ROI. If not, then you can ignore my suggestion. Example: If the Hong Kong odds reads 5-1 but the payoff is $10, then you should recalculate your results...if not, then there's no problem....Best of luck, either way:-)

[Nitro]

I am still unclear about the bottom row ($542 $540 $546) in the 9th race (and the bottom rows of $100 $100 $100 and $96 $96 $96 in the examples above). Is this a value you input, or is it a value generated by the app, extrapolated from the bet size you enter? Basically, do you enter the bet size, or do you enter another value that outputs the bet size? If the latter, what is the bet size derived from?The bottom row of normally identical numbers are the values generated by the Dutch calculator App. They simply show the equal returns based on the bets from the row above them which are also generated by this App. The only inputs for the Dutch calculator are the odds of the 3 chosen entries (from Low to High). The row beneath the odds are the $2 returns for those odds. The App’s betting baseline starts at the $2 level. However, if you want to increase or decrease the Total bet you can back into the into bet line and change the individual bets until the numbers on the bottom line are close to equalizing each other.
Initial baseline calculation:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$21 $16 $10 $47 $58 123%
$105 $105 $105 Reducing the betting line:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$12 $9 $6 $27 $33 122%
$55 $52 $53 Increasing the betting line:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 5.5 9.5 BET PRF
$10 $13 $21
$43 $33 $21 $97 $118 122%
$215 $215 $221 Notice that the Profit % margin stays nearly identical in each case.

[traynor]

I very much appreciate you taking the time to explain the process you use in such detail (with sufficient clarity that even an Excel-illiterate like myself can understand it). I think the reluctance of others to accept the validity of your approach may (in some cases) be due to a lack of understanding of what the Excel app is doing, and what to do with it.

As you pointed out earlier, the initial step of selecting three entries with both sufficient probability of winning and sufficient return when they do win, to generate a profit when proportional dutch wagering all three, is critical.

Again, I want to thank you for explaining your approach in such detail. I hope that others will take advantage of your postings to increase their own understanding of what you are doing, and the possible benefit to them of being less swayed by preconceptions and more open to new ideas.