Lemon Drop Husker
11-11-2016, 06:08 AM
Not gonna lie, been a little rough getting back into the swing of things again after the scintillating Breeders Cup this past weekend.
But such is the life of a horseplayer, and it is time to turn the page. That page today lands squarely on Del Mar and a tough 6th race with question marks abound.
:1: Rye: One of 2 3YOs in this field who may well go off as the race favorite. Afterall, he did win a race 2 back at this very condition and at this very track. He is an in form horse that should be a very large part of this one, but the big question is jockey. Perez gets the call, but Desormeaux and Bejarano may have had 1st option, but have ended up elsewhere. The layoff isn't all that disturbing, but has to be noted. Is coming in with a solid work tab and should be ready to fire. Tough call at a likely short price.
:2: Deep Play: Name says it all. You really have to go deep in order to play this one. A 2 for 27 lifer hasn't hit the board in his last 9 races and is taking on better horses at extra distance which he hasn't shown he can handle a mile, let alone 9 panels. IF you are looking for some kind of angle, he does have 2 bullet works since his last race. Even at his 20/1 ML odds he would be a tough play.
:3: All Call: Really tough read here. Gelding rolls in off a 6 1/2 furlong down the hill race at Santa Anita just a few short weeks ago. Has also ran for a tag his last 4 races while changing hands twice. Ran well 3 back at this track and this distance, so he has it in him to be very competitive in here. Flavor Flav gets the mount, and is a solid turf jock on a horse that has a very nice turf record. The blinkers come off for a very interesting entry.
:4: Bird E House: No other way to say it than this is an all or nothing type horse. 4 for 27 lifetime with only 1 other board finish. Looks to be completely out of form, but Desormeaux gets the call, and his last two races are very intriguing. Why? 2 back he goes 12 panels on the lawn and then they fire him back at 6 1/2 panels down the hill at Santa Anita. The tote board will be very well worth watching with this guy, and will definitely need to see in the post parade.
:5: Comes the Dream: One of a few horses in here with some actual front end speed. This guy usually puts forth a decent enough effort, and did win at this condition 3 back at Santa Anita. 9 panels is the huge question mark here, and you also have to question any turf horse that doesn't finish races strongly that often. I hope he keeps close to his 4/1 ML as he looks like a huge underlay to me at that price.
:6: Jackson Sundown: 0 for 6 on turf. Moving up in class. Coming in off of a layoff. Bug jock. 30/1 ML. I've wagered on worse entries, but I'd have to go pretty deep into my records to find one.
:7: Winning Causeway: In a race full of interesting entries, this may well be the most interesting. In his first 6 career starts, this guy was 5 for 6 in the exacta while racing on turf. His next 4 races? Dirt, and a single board finish. Well, he returns to the grass today, has front end speed in a race devoid of much pace, and gets Tyler Baze back on board who rode him in a number of his best races. Yes, the distance has to be a question in here, but if the 15/1 ML sticks, he could be a lively shot in here.
:8: Rye Patch: ML favorite is in form as much as anybody in the race and has been in the exacta at this very distance on the grass in his last two. Bejarano climbs aboard, and Bill Spawr rolls this guy in off the claim. Really tough entry with form on this track. Would not be surprised if the ML favorite is indeed the post time favorite. Cannot exclude from exotics or horizontals.
:9: Dynamic Scoring: Yes, this is his 2nd career race on the turf after breaking his turf maiden last out. At first glance this looks like an easy toss, but after further review, this guy hasn't had the best of trips lately. He is also the "other" 3YO in this race and is obviously still trying to figure this whole thing out. The post is disturbing in that his trouble has been running wide, and while Tiago was on board. However, in a race full of what ifs, this guy is maybe the biggest what if out there. Could be dangerous. Could also likely run 6 wide around both turns and finish well up the track.
:10: Yoked: His last 5 races are tough to stomach, much less make any excuses. His lone career win is in a $20K Maiden Claimer at Los Al. Would be surprising to see a top half of field finish much less a board finish.
SUMMARY: Key race that kicks off the late P4. With the 7th and 9th being possible ALL button plays :D, one might have to take a stand in this one in horizontal plays. :1::3::8: look to be the easy play contenders in here, but I'm not sold it is that easy.
But such is the life of a horseplayer, and it is time to turn the page. That page today lands squarely on Del Mar and a tough 6th race with question marks abound.
:1: Rye: One of 2 3YOs in this field who may well go off as the race favorite. Afterall, he did win a race 2 back at this very condition and at this very track. He is an in form horse that should be a very large part of this one, but the big question is jockey. Perez gets the call, but Desormeaux and Bejarano may have had 1st option, but have ended up elsewhere. The layoff isn't all that disturbing, but has to be noted. Is coming in with a solid work tab and should be ready to fire. Tough call at a likely short price.
:2: Deep Play: Name says it all. You really have to go deep in order to play this one. A 2 for 27 lifer hasn't hit the board in his last 9 races and is taking on better horses at extra distance which he hasn't shown he can handle a mile, let alone 9 panels. IF you are looking for some kind of angle, he does have 2 bullet works since his last race. Even at his 20/1 ML odds he would be a tough play.
:3: All Call: Really tough read here. Gelding rolls in off a 6 1/2 furlong down the hill race at Santa Anita just a few short weeks ago. Has also ran for a tag his last 4 races while changing hands twice. Ran well 3 back at this track and this distance, so he has it in him to be very competitive in here. Flavor Flav gets the mount, and is a solid turf jock on a horse that has a very nice turf record. The blinkers come off for a very interesting entry.
:4: Bird E House: No other way to say it than this is an all or nothing type horse. 4 for 27 lifetime with only 1 other board finish. Looks to be completely out of form, but Desormeaux gets the call, and his last two races are very intriguing. Why? 2 back he goes 12 panels on the lawn and then they fire him back at 6 1/2 panels down the hill at Santa Anita. The tote board will be very well worth watching with this guy, and will definitely need to see in the post parade.
:5: Comes the Dream: One of a few horses in here with some actual front end speed. This guy usually puts forth a decent enough effort, and did win at this condition 3 back at Santa Anita. 9 panels is the huge question mark here, and you also have to question any turf horse that doesn't finish races strongly that often. I hope he keeps close to his 4/1 ML as he looks like a huge underlay to me at that price.
:6: Jackson Sundown: 0 for 6 on turf. Moving up in class. Coming in off of a layoff. Bug jock. 30/1 ML. I've wagered on worse entries, but I'd have to go pretty deep into my records to find one.
:7: Winning Causeway: In a race full of interesting entries, this may well be the most interesting. In his first 6 career starts, this guy was 5 for 6 in the exacta while racing on turf. His next 4 races? Dirt, and a single board finish. Well, he returns to the grass today, has front end speed in a race devoid of much pace, and gets Tyler Baze back on board who rode him in a number of his best races. Yes, the distance has to be a question in here, but if the 15/1 ML sticks, he could be a lively shot in here.
:8: Rye Patch: ML favorite is in form as much as anybody in the race and has been in the exacta at this very distance on the grass in his last two. Bejarano climbs aboard, and Bill Spawr rolls this guy in off the claim. Really tough entry with form on this track. Would not be surprised if the ML favorite is indeed the post time favorite. Cannot exclude from exotics or horizontals.
:9: Dynamic Scoring: Yes, this is his 2nd career race on the turf after breaking his turf maiden last out. At first glance this looks like an easy toss, but after further review, this guy hasn't had the best of trips lately. He is also the "other" 3YO in this race and is obviously still trying to figure this whole thing out. The post is disturbing in that his trouble has been running wide, and while Tiago was on board. However, in a race full of what ifs, this guy is maybe the biggest what if out there. Could be dangerous. Could also likely run 6 wide around both turns and finish well up the track.
:10: Yoked: His last 5 races are tough to stomach, much less make any excuses. His lone career win is in a $20K Maiden Claimer at Los Al. Would be surprising to see a top half of field finish much less a board finish.
SUMMARY: Key race that kicks off the late P4. With the 7th and 9th being possible ALL button plays :D, one might have to take a stand in this one in horizontal plays. :1::3::8: look to be the easy play contenders in here, but I'm not sold it is that easy.