Practice

[Robert Fischer]

Working on exotics. 5K starting bankroll.
Anyone is free to jump in and keep your own bankroll for your own plays, or post a selection or comment.

[FakeNameChanged]

Robert, no expert on exotics here, actually lose more of my bankroll on exactas. I read a couple years back that some pro French handicapper makes all his money on mostly Trifectas. His method IIRC was to just eliminate all the hopeless losers who he felt would never be in the money. Nothing new there, but he made it into an art form. What types of exotics are you making your focus?

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $102

Aqu r1 pick 3
http://oi67.tinypic.com/5l1b82.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Robert, no expert on exotics here, actually lose more of my bankroll on exactas. I read a couple years back that some pro French handicapper makes all his money on mostly Trifectas. His method IIRC was to just eliminate all the hopeless losers who he felt would never be in the money. Nothing new there, but he made it into an art form. What types of exotics are you making your focus?

Focusing on pick3s at the moment.
I will use some vertical exotics (tris supers) as well.

[PICSIX]

AQU

Race 1: Daily Double :1: with :2: :7:

[upthecreek]

DD
:7: / :4:

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $162 (TOTAL SESSION: $264)



http://oi67.tinypic.com/2008ykh.jpg

also $2 P3 :1::3::7: X :4::5::8: X :6: =$18

[Robert Fischer]

AQU

Race 1: Daily Double :1: with :2: :7:

Great start to your DD :ThmbUp:

[rsetup]

AQU R2

:2:, Run Blondie Run

:1:, Taperge

:7:, Bellavais: don't get the hype; she was supposed to win last time out but couldn't sustain her bid

:9:, Ormolu Lu

[rsetup]

If they wanted a Luis Saez ride on the 2, AGAIN, then they'd have kept him on. Guess Alvarado was doing his best Saez impersonation.

And the no count :7: will 'win' by DQ

[Robert Fischer]

AQU R2

:7:, Bellavais: don't get the hype; she was supposed to win last time out but couldn't sustain her bid


probably correct on Bellavais being an underlay :ThmbUp:

That was a busy race. I'll have to re-watch

[upthecreek]

DD
:7: / :4:
I never get put up on a DQ, I must be walking around lucky and not know it :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $110 (SESSION TOTAL: $374)

http://oi65.tinypic.com/idsk2a.jpg

[upthecreek]

AQU

Race 1: Daily Double :1: with :2: :7:
$25 :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Race 3

I probably should've made the :4: a 'B' and not an 'A'.
I did make the :8: an 'A'.

[PICSIX]

I never get put up on a DQ, I must be walking around lucky and not know it :lol:

I feel the same way! :lol:

[FakeNameChanged]

Race 3. Aq nov. 9
3/5/6 exacta box

[rsetup]

AQU R3

:4:
:5:

Either way

saver tri

:8: / :4:, :5: /:4:,:5:

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $4.50

obviously , I'm rooting hard for the FTS :8: here in race 3.

The :1: is a horse I've tossed, that is a little scary. Migs has talked him up. Usually fairly sharp about class, and he's noted the drop.

.50cent tri :1: x :4::5::8: x :4::5::6::8: =$4.50

[PICSIX]

WAGERED: $4.50

obviously , I'm rooting hard for the FTS :8: here in race 3.

The :1: is a horse I've tossed, that is a little scary. Migs has talked him up. Usually fairly sharp about class, and he's noted the drop.

.50cent tri :1: x :4::5::8: x :4::5::6::8: =$4.50

:8: nice :ThmbUp:

[rsetup]

AQU R3

:4:
:5:

Either way

saver tri

:8: / :4:, :5: /:4:,:5:

Greedy. Exacta paid $62 :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

$2 PICK 3 :1:'B' X :7:'A' X :8:'A' PAYS $369
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $378.50 (-$9.50))





Aqu r1 pick 3
http://oi67.tinypic.com/5l1b82.jpg

[rsetup]

AQU R4

:1:, Contradict: Should be able to get a good inside trip; either going or sitting just off.

:3:, Rooftop View: If only Saez weren't up :bang:

:6:, Idiosyncratic: Maker and he's run some races where he doesn't need meltdowns

[PICSIX]

Race 4: Double :3: :6: with :4:

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Hey all mind if i throw down a few

Aqu4

:5: mr magic
:7: yowl

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $14.50

AQU R4

:3:, Rooftop View: If only Saez weren't up :bang:


i want to key 3 as a value exotic horse

50CENT TRIS

:3: x :1::5::6: x :1::5::6::7::8::9:

:5::6: x :3: x :1::5::6::7::8::9:

:5::6: x :1::5::6:x :3:

[Robert Fischer]

Decarlo would have won that race

[rsetup]

Decarlo SUCKS. Remember that Pajama horse race where he had an insurmountable lead and bore out late to lose the photo?

I had the 3 to win but I really needed a 3-1 (or 3-6). Carmouche is easily 2nd if he doesn't senselessly come off the rail.

[Robert Fischer]

$1 PICK 3 :7:'A' X :8:'A' X :3:'B' PAYS $960
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $393 (+$936))




http://oi67.tinypic.com/2008ykh.jpg

also $2 P3 :1::3::7: X :4::5::8: X :6: =$18

[Alwaysonpoint36]

$1 PICK 3 :7:'A' X :8:'A' X :3:'B' PAYS $960
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $393 (+$936))

That's awesome

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $24
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $417 (+$912))

Time to burn more money with my 50 cent tri hedges... :bang:


my supposed 'good opinion' here was using :4: as a 'B' rather than 'A'
Comes back to haunt?

Rooftop View was a 'B' , so no 'C's' allowed in this race.

Hedging w/ my 'C's:


50CENT TRI

:2::3: X :2::3::4::7::8: X ALL

[rsetup]

AQU R5

:4:, Arthur Avenue: chalk and two off the turfers; but his last two races are better than any the others have run and he can handle the distance.

:2:, Dan the Man: cheap but like his last race and he's handled the distance.

:8:, Playwright: decent effort off the layoff last out.

[Robert Fischer]

$2 PICK 3 :8:'A' X :3:'B' X :7:'A' PAYS $938

(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $417 (+$1850))



http://oi65.tinypic.com/idsk2a.jpg

[PICSIX]

AQU
Race 6: Double :3: with :6:

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $27.50

Intensity the 8 should be the favorite, but he's been very problematic.

I think :4:cave johnson or :10: lord of love have a high % chance to suck up and run 3rd.

Trying to catch a price
50 CENT TRI:

134589
13458910
410

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $445.50 (+$1822.50))
Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $6822.50


got too 'cute' with that .50cent tri.

For those that doped out the 3 , that was unlucky.

Didn't expect Manny Franco to get lost during the running of that race, but that was a dumb bet.
The hedging w/ the tri (earlier races) made a bit of sense, but trying to single under a chaotic exacta is pretty dumb, when you've got exactas and multis...

That's enough for me today. I didn't make it past the 6th race in my homework, and I've got a Hillary Hangover today.

[upthecreek]

DD
:4: / :5:

[upthecreek]

:5: / :10:

[PICSIX]

AQU
Race 9: Win :6:

[Robert Fischer]

Good afternoon everyone. Beautiful day today.

Trying some more practice.
Race2
WAGERED: $103
http://oi68.tinypic.com/2e4hrp4.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

also race 2

WAGERED: $46 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $149)

http://oi67.tinypic.com/wmgkfm.jpg


was going to make this my main bet. I plan to overlap three rolling pk3's again, and your 1st leg allows the greatest room for error.
Decided to make the :4: an 'A+' instead.

[PhantomOnTour]

Aqu - Race 2
:2:

[PICSIX]

also race 2

WAGERED: $46 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $149)

http://oi67.tinypic.com/wmgkfm.jpg


was going to make this my main bet. I plan to overlap three rolling pk3's again, and your 1st leg allows the greatest room for error.
Decided to make the :4: an 'A+' instead.

Is that ticket structuring platform provided by your ADW?

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $130 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $279)

http://oi65.tinypic.com/333a7py.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Is that ticket structuring platform provided by your ADW?

check your PM's

[Robert Fischer]

race 4
WAGERED: $160 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $439)

http://oi64.tinypic.com/14c4in6.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $14 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $453)

Rooting for the :3: !! here as a decent pk3/Willpay...
Spread a bit, and it came up chalky so far.

going to hedge here anyway

:7::9: / :4::6: / ALL =$14

[Robert Fischer]

$50(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $503)

going to use an additional sequence to tighten up and try to crush a horse who I really like from this race.
http://oi67.tinypic.com/2wh2h5c.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $14 (SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $453)

Rooting for the :3: !! here as a decent pk3/Willpay...
Spread a bit, and it came up chalky so far.

going to hedge here anyway

:7::9: / :4::6: / ALL =$14

also :5: /:4::6:/ all = $7

[Robert Fischer]

$2pk3 PAYS: :3:'A' x :4:'A' x :4:'A' = $63
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $524 (-$461))



http://oi68.tinypic.com/2e4hrp4.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]
WAGERED $15

$1 DAILY DOUBLE
:2::5::6: X :1::5::6::7::8: =$15
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $539 (-$476))

[Robert Fischer]

RACE 3 PK3 :4:'A' :4:'A' :1:'A' PAYS $62.50
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $539 (-$413.50))


http://oi65.tinypic.com/333a7py.jpg[/QUOTE]

[Robert Fischer]

I don't like the :3: here.
5 ran a winning race last time vs. better.

WAGERED $22
SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $561 (-$435.50))

$1 EXACTA :1::5: X :1::5::6::7::8: = $8
$1 EXACTA :5: X :1::6::7::8: =$4

50CENT TRI :5: X :1::6::7::8::10: X :1::6::7::8::10: =$10

[PICSIX]

AQU
Race 6: Exacta: :8: :11: with :1: :5: :8: :11:

[Robert Fischer]

1 more 50cent tri
167810 x 5 x 167810

just in case chaos ensues

[Robert Fischer]

Chalky sequences today.
I was open to some longer shots, and willing to lose a little.
I did try to emphasize in a couple favorites that I liked, on additional wagers, and I was wrong,
or it could have been a better day.


$3pk 3 :4:'A' :1:'A' :1:'A' PAYS $126
$3PK 3 CONSO TO :8: PAYS $33
$11back in scratches to the :8:
SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $571 (-$275.50))

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $6547
Churn $1016.50




http://oi64.tinypic.com/14c4in6.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

good luck today!!

RACE 1 , WAGERED:$103

http://oi66.tinypic.com/aeum95.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Race 1
I actually like the :1: Beverly Mine.
Watched her races. Pletcher is in a slight upswing with getting horses turned around on the drop (from my perspective).
I think she can almost 'jog' early and be on the lead or near the lead.

She's the 'uncool' selection. The public will bet her down closer to post because she's a pletcher.
I went back and watched some races, and I am really against the favorite :5: Smart Alex.

Using the following pattern here:

3rd race (UNBRIDLED JUAN) will be my 'key race'
in legs 1 and 5, I don't have to be defensive.
5 as a 'B' is a tiny bit defensive,
but fairly aggressive going :1::6: 'A' ,
considering the randomness and low quality of the 1st race.


3 SEQUENTAL ROLLING PICK3'S
INSIGHT INTO 5 CONSECUTIVE RACES.
A KEY RACE WITH AT LEAST 2 PLAYABLE RACES BEFORE AND AFTER.
1-2-(3)
2-(3)-4
(3)-4-5
3 = YOUR MONEY RACE Value + Defense
1 AND 5 = VALUE (NO 'DEFENSIVE')
2,3,AND 4 = VALUE + DEFENSE(EACH APPEAR ON 2 TICKETS)

[Robert Fischer]

also R1 a pick5


WAGERED: $102 (SESSION TOTAL $205)

An aggressive pick 5 that leans heavily on my 1 Beverly Mine and against Unbridled Juan , with some weight thrown onto the turf race 5 (NO 2 B'S TICKET, R5B's x2)


http://oi65.tinypic.com/9saqg8.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Beverly Mine jogged and ran well enough to win the race on paper.
Smart Alex was driven most of the race, but found her best stride late,
and instead of faltering near the pace, closed well enough to win.

That is why you can afford to use only Value in the first race.

Doesn't collapse your whole day.

Relegated to 'B' for the first ticket.

[Robert Fischer]

Race 2 aqueduct P3

This is the 'meat and potatoes' part.
1 opinion = vs unbridled juan
if my B horse wins race 2, i'll accept that w/juan
so X2

WAGERED: $120 (SESSION TOTAL $325)

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2ywa2oy.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

race 3p3 WAGERED: $189 (SESSION TOTAL $514)

Nothing too fancy here
VS UNBRIDLED JUAN the key of this 5 race rolling 3 sequence

also have some juicy horses in race 5, and tossing the 11 in r5.

I don't want a lot on Juan +A's. But I'll take Juan to my r5 Bs(see multiples)

http://oi67.tinypic.com/14jvvia.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $48 (SESSION TOTAL $562)

Hedging with :2: OSTRELENKA

$5 TRI :2: W/ :1::3::4: =$30

$2 TRI :2: W/:1::3::4: / :1::3::4::5: =$18

[Robert Fischer]

3 SEQUENTAL ROLLING PICK3'S
INSIGHT INTO 5 CONSECUTIVE RACES.
A KEY RACE WITH AT LEAST 2 PLAYABLE RACES BEFORE AND AFTER.
1-2-(3*)
2-(3*)-4
(3*)-4-5
3 = YOUR MONEY RACE Value + Defense (APPEARS ON ALL 3 TIX)
1 AND 5 = VALUE (NO 'DEFENSIVE')
2,3,AND 4 = VALUE + DEFENSE(EACH APPEAR ON 2 TICKETS)

*= PLAY-AGAINST UNBRIDLED JUAN


Tough blow when the 'heart' of your strategy turns out to be wrong.
Unbridled Juan much the best, and Irad Ortiz rode him perfectly.

Down to the 'B' tickets now:ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

$3 r1p3 :5:'B' :3:'A' :3:'B' PAYS $34.80
(SESSION TOTAL $562)(-527.20)
good luck today!!

RACE 1 , WAGERED:$103

http://oi66.tinypic.com/aeum95.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL $604)(-575.20)
WAGERED $48
3A 16B
578A 16B

messing around with some daily doubles here, based on the opinion of the 3 being an 'A' value, and some possible price horses next race. :ThmbUp:

:3: X:5::7::8: X$8=$24
:3: X :1::6: X$3=$6
:1::6: X:5::7::8: X$2 =$12
:1::6:X :1::8::6: X$1 =$6

[Robert Fischer]

$1 r2p3 :3:'A' :3:'B' :1:'A' PAYS $7.90
(SESSION TOTAL $604)(-567.30)

Unbridled Juan is still haunting the ticket

Race 2 aqueduct P3

This is the 'meat and potatoes' part.
1 opinion = vs unbridled juan
if my B horse wins race 2, i'll accept that w/juan
so X2

WAGERED: $120 (SESSION TOTAL $325)

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2ywa2oy.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED: $242
(SESSION TOTAL $846)(-809.30)

Shaking off the icky chalk dust

some decent opinions here in a p3 that stretches 2 turf races.
I don't like the 1entry in race 7, so i had to step up to the window.

http://oi68.tinypic.com/2emplxf.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

10cent super
5711x5711x15678x1567812=$8.20

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL $846)(-817.50)

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5728.5
Churn $1862.50

[Robert Fischer]

new day today
Wagered $210

ticket #1 $48(7 single)
7 x 124 x 15 x$3 = $18
7 x 6 x 15 x$1 =$2
7 x 124 x 281011 x$2 =$24
7 x 6 x 281011 x$1 = $4


ticket#2
http://oi65.tinypic.com/24xl5hs.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

looks like a chalky sequence.

long shot value in the FTS race 1 , and the secondary turf horses race 3.

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $216 (SESSION TOTAL $426)

http://oi64.tinypic.com/4h5ppi.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $30
$10 EX BX :1::2:
$5 EX :1::2: OVER :4:

[Robert Fischer]

bad opinions, and sloppy play

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $128 (SESSION TOTAL $584)

http://oi65.tinypic.com/53l4e9.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $158 (SESSION TOTAL $742)

http://oi66.tinypic.com/qyem2o.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Ouch!

:6: Bustin it , returned to form and made the :9: Holding Aces use a bunch of horse in stubborn battle. One of the few times that I find myself wondering if Irad was too aggressive.

lesser :8: Sky Chaparral benefits with a win that was tough to predict.

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $154 (SESSION TOTAL $896)

http://oi67.tinypic.com/2zz407m.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $15
R5 EXACTAS

$10 EX
:4: W/:7:
$5EX
:4:W/:8:

[Robert Fischer]

first money all day!

$15 back on scratches :rolleyes:

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $181 (SESSION TOTAL $1077)
http://oi64.tinypic.com/2ijq0pu.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r7 p3 WAGERED $124 (SESSION TOTAL $1201)
http://oi68.tinypic.com/2rf4uv5.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

hot seat scratched +$28

[Robert Fischer]

WAGERED $107

.50tris
45x13457 x911 =$8
134x134511x9 = $6

$5ex 145 w/9 =$15

$3 Tri 3 x 1457 x 1457911=$60

$10 ex 3 over 1,4 = $20

Gift Box is a standout, Adulator and Stickstatelydude are possible overlays dictating the early running ahead of the big named horses.
Wild About Deb is an interesting long shot.

[Robert Fischer]

The way my last couple days have gone, Gov Malibu will romp here and tear up my tickets:D

[Robert Fischer]

$1pk3 PAYS: :1:'B' x :9:'A' x :4:'A' = $401.50
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $1280(-$878.50))



WAGERED $181 (SESSION TOTAL $1077)
http://oi64.tinypic.com/2ijq0pu.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r9 exactas
WAGERED $66

$10 ex bx 58 = $20
$5 ex 58 w/13 $20
$4 ex 58 w/4 $8
$3 ex 13 w/58 $12
$2 ex bx 13 =$4
$1 ex 13 w/4 =$2

[Robert Fischer]

+10 SCRATCHES 4 SHAKSPEAR EX
$4 ex 58 w/4 $8

$1 ex 13 w/4 =$2

[Robert Fischer]

$1pk3 PAYS: :9:'B' x :4:'A' x :1:'A' = $768
$1CONSOPK3 PAYS :9:'B' x :4:'A' x :4:'A' = $65
(SESSION TOTAL WAGERED: $1336(-$101.50))


Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5627
Churn $3198.50


http://oi68.tinypic.com/2rf4uv5.jpg

Lost $100 bucks. Not bad for a sloppy, mistake ridden day. Got a lot of practice and will keep trying to improve. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Today is the day !

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5627
Churn $3198.50


getting my numbers up today

[Robert Fischer]

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51X0BXJOIzL.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

RACE 1
WAGERED $176

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2ijtfue.jpg

Also (because :6: HERE COMES ROSIE is an 'A+' in the third race)
http://oi67.tinypic.com/30svmop.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Embarrassing 1st leg. I let a horse who was red hot on the board go as 'C' ticket.

[Robert Fischer]

r2 aqueduct pk3
WAGERED $168 (SESSION TOTAL $344)


http://oi67.tinypic.com/2e6gcuc.jpg
7a+
http://oi63.tinypic.com/33ekj9k.jpg
7a+6a+
http://oi65.tinypic.com/207t8oj.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Trifectas
2/57/57 x $5 = $10
2/57/579 X $2 =$8
2/57/5679 x $.50 =$3
5/279/2679 x .50 =$4.50
5/2679/2679 x .50 =$6

[Robert Fischer]

$1 Tri 5/9/7 PAYS $40.50
(SESSION TOTAL $375.50 (-$330)

Trifectas
5/279/2679 x .50 =$4.50
5/2679/2679 x .50 =$6

[Robert Fischer]

R3 Pk3
WAGERED $287 (SESSION TOTAL $662.50 (-$617)

http://oi65.tinypic.com/14413q.jpg
http://oi64.tinypic.com/10fb8rq.jpg
http://oi68.tinypic.com/9bdx21.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Exactas
$10 exacta 2-6
$5 exacta 2-1
$5 exacta 1-6
$5 exacta 1-2

wagered $25

[Robert Fischer]

:3: Frostie Annie really threw in the towel there.

[Robert Fischer]

Going to pass a rare race here, and see what unfolds.

don't have a strong opinion, and i have a strong appetite for value (as well as for lunch!)

[Robert Fischer]

$1 pk3 :5:'A' :2:'C' :8:'A' PAYS $70.75
WAGERED $287 (SESSION TOTAL $687.50 (-$571.25)


r2 aqueduct pk3
WAGERED $168 (SESSION TOTAL $344)


http://oi67.tinypic.com/2e6gcuc.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

+29 :4: Easy Way Out, scratched

[Robert Fischer]

r5 pk3 WAGERED $180 (SESSION TOTAL $838.50 (-$722.25)

http://oi68.tinypic.com/29zbqlz.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r5 exacta box
rare time i see value in a box
:2::3::6: X$10 = $60

[Robert Fischer]

$1 pk3 :2:'A' :8:'A' :3:'C' PAYS $130.25
(SESSION TOTAL $898.50 (-$652.00)

R3 Pk3

http://oi65.tinypic.com/14413q.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

R6 PK3
WAGERED $280 (SESSION TOTAL $1178.50 (-$932.00)
http://oi68.tinypic.com/156vkf9.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

50cent Tri
1,4/ 1578 / 14578 =$10.50

[Robert Fischer]

$5 Trifecta 8/36/457 =$30

[Robert Fischer]

50c trifecta pays $90.25
WAGERED $280 (SESSION TOTAL $1219 (-$882.50)
50cent Tri
1,4/ 1578 / 14578 =$10.50

[Robert Fischer]

r7 pk3

WAGERED $262 (SESSION TOTAL $1481 (-$1144.50)



Got a couple A+ horses here

http://oi65.tinypic.com/ir0s4n.jpg
a+ :14:
http://oi68.tinypic.com/sq01mg.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

$20 ex bx :2::3::10: =$60

[Robert Fischer]

r5-7 $1 Pk3 :3:'C' :4:'A' :10:'A' PAYS $438
(SESSION TOTAL $1541 (-$766.50)

not getting my 'A's off today, but hanging tough and trying to improve.

r5 pk3

http://oi68.tinypic.com/29zbqlz.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

R9 WAGERED $62

50cent Tri
:14: /1,5,6/ 1456791012 =$10.50
:14: /1,5,6/ 145679 =$7.50

50cent Tri
1,4,5,6/ :14:/1456791012 =$14
1,4,5,6/ :14:/145679 =$10

$1Tri x 1,4,5,6/145679/:14: =$20

[Robert Fischer]

$2 trifecta

14/5/1691012 =$10

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL $1613 (-$838.50)
Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $4789
Churn $4811.50

[Robert Fischer]

following is a ticket structure , not a wager.
:1::2::3: etc.. = Odds ranking. :1: = Favorite

This generic pick 3 sequence features 3 top contenders in each race, and each of the 3 races has a relatively low-odds favorite.


http://oi67.tinypic.com/2psktxw.jpg

I 'hammer' my ALL-A's for good reason(in this case a 'x3' multiplier emphasis). -They are my top picks, and one or two of them is typically a public choice, - meaning a lower payout in exchange for a higher hit percentage.

Focusing on the ALL A Entries ticket only:
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$3 = $81
While I'd love to hit most combinations with my 'x3' multiplier emphasis, I'm not all that thrilled if the Favorite (symbol :1: in this example), wins all three.
I'm then looking at a pick 3 that may pay $25 for $1 punch, or $75 for this ticket structure of $3x.

The same Pick 4 could pay around $80 for $1 or $240 for a $3 punch.

Brings us back to the bird-in-hand vs. bird-in-bush expression.

Let's examine the tradeoff.
Removing only the :1: / :1: / :1: chalk sequence,
I'm left with:
:2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :2::3: x$1 = $18
This reduces the ALL A Ticket from $81 to $54. A reduction of $27.

Now the fancy leverage:

I will now substitute that :1: / :1: /:1: PICK-3 with the following PICK-4:

http://oi68.tinypic.com/sncj8i.jpg

Pictured, I've spent $26.50 (if on track, this sets up a an impasse w/ your teller).
Or you would actually the A's w/ one B Ticket x$4. ;)

IF one of my top 3 wins the 4th leg, I have the pick 4 for $6.50.
IF my B wins $4, IF my C wins $3.50.
IF none of my top 5 horses wins the 4th leg, I lose the whole investment ($171 in this ticket).


This leveraged use of a chalky pick3 would be used in conjunction with the
:2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :2::3: x$1 = $18
sequence, to replace the original 'ALL A's Ticket'.
The remaining punches would remain the same.

[Robert Fischer]

That was pretty, but I made a mistake.

after my brain wakes up I'll have to fix it


Focusing on the ALL A Entries ticket only:
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$3 = $81

Let's examine the tradeoff.
Removing only the :1: / :1: / :1: chalk sequence,
I'm left with:
:2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :2::3: x$1 = $18
This reduces the ALL A Ticket from $81 to $54. A reduction of $27.


That's wrong. Any sequence with 2 :1:'s is only covered for $1 (rather than $3).
eg :2: / :1:/ :1:
and any sequence w/ 1 :1:'s is only covered for $2 (rather than $3).
eg :2: /:1:/:2:

have to correct that, and then see how much I actually have left over from $81 (*hint #<$27)

[Robert Fischer]

Let's examine the tradeoff.
Removing only the :1: / :1: / :1: chalk sequence,
I'm left with:
:2::3: / :1::2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :2::3: / :1::2::3: x$1 = $18
:1::2::3: / :1::2::3: / :2::3: x$1 = $18
:2::3: / :1:/ :1: x$2 = $4
:1:/ :2::3: / :1: x$2 = $4
:1:/ :1: / :2::3: x$2 = $4
:2::3: / :2::3: / :1: x$1 = $4
:1: / :2::3: / :1: x$1 = $4
:2::3: / :1: / :2::3: x$1 = $4
Total =$78 (a reduction of $3! not $27)

pick 3 leverage =
(PICK4)
:1:/:1:/:1:/:1: X$1 =$1
:1:/:1:/:1:/:2::3:X.50 =$1
:1:/:1:/:1:/:4::5:X.50=$1

IF The Favorite(or an 'A' horse I love) wins the 4th leg, I have the pick 4 for $1
IF my 2nd or 3rd contender wins, $.50,
IF my B/C wins $.50.
IF none of my top 5 horses wins the 4th leg, I lose the whole investment ($171 in this ticket).


Not nearly as cool as the free money I was playing with a couple posts above, but still interesting and could be a big improvement if you have an actual strong opinion in the 4th race.

[PICSIX]

Track Race # Prog # Horse Name M/L

AQU 2 4 ROCK N BUNNY 12.00
AQU 4 13 BRAINCHILD 6.00
AQU 5 4 SINISTRA 3.50
AQU 6 2 MATCH UP 0.80
AQU 7 6 ROLL TIDE ROLL 3.00

GPW 3 3 BEHZAD'S PRIDE 2.00
GPW 5 7 ADIOS CHIC 20.00
GPW 6 2 CHANIA 4.00

[Robert Fischer]

Trying to smile on a gloomy Wednesday


WAGERED $370

RACE4 PICK-3

$60 PICK3 :8: / :2::4::5: / :2: = $180
$20 PICK3 :4::9: / :2::4::5: / :2: $120
$10 PICK3 :10: / :2::4::5: / :2: $30
$20 PICK3 :8::9:/:2:/:2: $40

[Robert Fischer]

$340
Trying to smile on a gloomy Wednesday


WAGERED $370 -30

RACE4 PICK-3

$60 PICK3 :8: / :2::4::5: / :2: = $180
$20 PICK3 :4::9: / :2::4::5: / :2: $120
$10 PICK3 :10: / :2::4::5: / :2: $30 SCRATCH
$20 PICK3 :8::9:/:2:/:2: $40

[Robert Fischer]

pk4 =$104 (SESSION TOTAL $444)
$2.50 2 68 59 67810 =$40
1.50 2 27 59 67810 $24
1.50 2 68 46 67810 $24
1 2 27 46 67810 $16

[Robert Fischer]

$60 PICK 3 :8:A :5:A :2:A PAYS $1020
(SESSION TOTAL $444 (+576))
Trying to smile on a gloomy Wednesday


WAGERED $340

RACE4 PICK-3

$60 PICK3 :8: / :2::4::5: / :2: = $180
$20 PICK3 :4::9: / :2::4::5: / :2: $120
$10 PICK3 :10: / :2::4::5: / :2: $30 scratch
$20 PICK3 :8::9:/:2:/:2: $40

[Robert Fischer]

RACE 8 WAGERED $96 (SESSION TOTAL $540 (+480))

$8 DD :5::9: / :6::8::10: =$48
$4 DD :4::6: / :6::8::10: =$24
$4 DD :5::9: / :3::7: =$16
$2 DD :4::6: / :3::7: =$8

[Robert Fischer]

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5380.20
Churn $5351.50


$8 DD :5: / :6: PAYS $111.20
(SESSION TOTAL $540 (+591.20))

RACE 8 WAGERED $96

$8 DD :5::9: / :6::8::10: =$48
$4 DD :4::6: / :6::8::10: =$24
$4 DD :5::9: / :3::7: =$16
$2 DD :4::6: / :3::7: =$8


Made 3 good, solid wagers today. Hit 2 of them. Nothing particularly fortunate (chalky and a horse I tossed due to value blew up my pk4), but the 'free square' in race 6 did come through, and Bay of Plenty fortunately took a few dollars in the 8th.

$2 Pick 6 only paid $420 today. Was basically a $2pk5. Lot of A' horses. Tough part was scaling down your coverage and finding a way to cover Will Did It at the same time (a 'C' would have sufficed).

[Robert Fischer]

Race2 pick 4 aqueduct
Wagered $108
$2 :1: :3: x :5: :6: x :6: :7: x :8: :11: =$32
$1 :4: x :5: :6: x 6,7 x 8,11 =$8
$1 1,3x5,6x4,5x8,11 $16
$1 1,3x5,6/6,7/2,3 $16
$.5 4/5,6/4,5/8,11 $4
$.5 4/5,6/67/2,3 $4
$.5 1,3/5,6/4,5/2,3 $8
$.5 2/56/67/8,11 $4
$.5 1,3/3/67/811 $4
$.5 13/56/2/811$4
$.5 13/56/67/1,6 $8

[Robert Fischer]

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5272.20
Churn $5459.50

[Robert Fischer]

back again
Great start for Saturday's card today
First race we have a heavy favorite Sicilia Mike, who happens to be extremely mediocre.

WAGERED $240

http://oi66.tinypic.com/iwum1y.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

also a $4 :9: x :2::5::9: x:1::8: =$18

i'd be silly to let Johnny V. beat an opinion like this.

:2: guick looks like the best horse in the race

$10 ex bx :2::3::5::6: = $120


SESSION TOTAL $378

[Robert Fischer]

PLEASE DONT SCRATCH SICILIA MIKE!

[Robert Fischer]

Shows how tough this game can be.

You only get a favorite like Sicilia Mike about once every couple of weeks or so, and he almost gets scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

r2 pick 4 $265.50 (SESSION TOTAL $643.50)

http://oi64.tinypic.com/24wc874.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

R3 .50cent Tri
:6: / :1::7::8: / :1::2::3::5::7::8: = $15

$1exbx :1::7::6: = $6


(SESSION TOTAL $664.50)

[Robert Fischer]

$4 PICK3 PAYS :6:'A' :5:'A' :1:'A' $647
(SESSION TOTAL $664.50(-17.50)

back again
Great start for Saturday's card today
First race we have a heavy favorite Sicilia Mike, who happens to be extremely mediocre.

WAGERED $240

http://oi66.tinypic.com/iwum1y.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

R4 50cent Tri
:4: / :6::7::9: /:2::5::6::7::8::9: =$10

[Robert Fischer]

r5 pk3

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2na5fdg.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL $881.50(-234.50)

[Robert Fischer]

RACE6 PK4 WAGERED $407 (SESSION TOTAL $1288.50(-641.50)
http://oi63.tinypic.com/35d3yhc.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r5 $1 PICK 3 :9:'A' :1:'A' :3:'C' PAYS $481.50
(SESSION TOTAL $1288.50(-160)
r5 pk3

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2na5fdg.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r8 DD

$10 DD :8:/ :3::8::10: =$30

$4 DD :8: /:7::9::11: = $12

$5 DD 8/3

[Robert Fischer]

(SESSION TOTAL $1288.50(-207))

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $5065.20
Churn $6748

[Robert Fischer]

looks like I'll check out Churchill and/or Del Mar etc..

have to be adaptable anyway.
http://oi63.tinypic.com/2i8zs4x.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

CHURCHILL R4 PK 4 (WAGERED $346)

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2h7j31f.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

That was quick.
Everyone but me seemed to know that :5: was a 'B/C'. I thought he was an 'X'.

[Robert Fischer]

CD R5 PK3 WAGERED $294 (SESSION TOTAL $640)
http://oi67.tinypic.com/zlb3mf.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

In the pk3 i just posted, I tried to 'tweak' a few adjustments from the doubles probables into my ticket after I had already made the ticket.

I don't understand every subtlety as much as NY.

[Robert Fischer]

cd r5

$25ex :4:/ :2::5: = $50 (SESSION TOTAL $690)

[Robert Fischer]

Great , got through with an 'A' and he wasn't the heavy favorite.

Race 6 is going to be the money race. :2::7::9::12: are the money horses.

:2: (20/1ml 5-1odds)opens inexplicably hot on the relatively lightly bet WPS board.
No real money showing in DD or multis.
Could be smart 'barn' money, could be the owner throwing a few bucks down for fun, could even be pool manipulation.

[Robert Fischer]

r6 50cent TRI

:9: / :1::2::5::7::8::12: / :1::2::5::7::8::12: =$15

^that could be a BIG one

:8: looks BEAUTIFUL as a co-fav, but these are 15k maidens and he's an indiana bred. Also has some hang in him.

:5: is kind of a 'default-fav'

obviously I'm looking to cash on some first timers or improvers.

[Robert Fischer]

OK, not my dream scenario, but the :1: wins r6 as a 'B'.
He was 5/1 ml and not particularly live. Big field, he shouldn't kill my prices. Also grouped with :2::12: in r6 'b's' , so he is multiplied on a couple tickets.
FTS :2: ran 2nd after taking some WPS money. Ran greenly after the break, and found a better stride late to pick up pieces. Slow race.

50CENT PK3 WILL PAYS

:3: =$192.10 $2WILL PAY= $768.40
:6: =$124.10 $2WILL PAY= $496.40
:7: =$179.20 $1WILL PAY= $358.40
:8: =$102.45 $1WILL PAY= $204.90


go :3:

[Robert Fischer]

they are betting the 8 like a sure thing

[Robert Fischer]

$2 pk3 :2:'A' :1:'B' :6:'A' PAYS $496.40
(SESSION TOTAL $705) (-208.60)
Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $4856.60
Churn $7453


CD R5 PK3
http://oi67.tinypic.com/zlb3mf.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

DEL MAR R6 PK4 WAGERED $735
http://oi66.tinypic.com/2dt9lpl.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Nothing too huge as far as opinions go...
r6 :4:spanish hombre is hot and upgraded from b to a, :9: is a weak b to me, although some may use as an A

r7 :1:6/1ml is kind of high so he's a value A, :7:=live enough on board to go xtoc,

r8 :8: grazen sky got a slow pace last time, :3:=probably too cheap but is a price

r9:1:=FTS w/top jock and big ml, :7:=gets better setup today,

[Robert Fischer]

:9: is a weak b to me, although some may use as an A

my 'weak b' wins the first leg, with a decisive wide move. Finished on the wrong lead and is a bet-against if he takes money, but that is no consolation.

Need to bounce back with an 'A' here in race 7.
:1::5:

[Robert Fischer]

r7 ... :7:=live enough on board to go xtoc,


I don't understand the money behind the :7:.

He's a C, and my C's are dead.

$1 Tri
:7: / :1::3::5: /:1::3::5::6::8::9: = $15
50cent Tri
:7: / :1::3::5::6::9: /:1::3::5::6::8::9: =$12.50

WAGERED $27.50

[Robert Fischer]

Another 'B' takes leg 2 in race 7. :bang:

at least he was 11-1 on the board.

I need 'A's for my last two legs or I get nothing...

race8 should be formful :2::7::8: = a fairly strong hand

[Robert Fischer]

:9: is hot on the board and can trash my remaining ticket with a win.

$50 Daily Double :9: / :5:

[jpjpicks]

Dmr
R8/# :7: $100 wps

[Robert Fischer]

:9: is hot on the board and can trash my remaining ticket with a win.

$50 Daily Double :9: / :5:

Down goes Frazier

:9: trashes my ticket.

I need the :5: to win race 9.

both of these horse want some pace to close into.

race 9!

:5::7::9: all exit that slow-paced downhill sprint. I like that:ThmbUp:
:9: the favorite looked strong late.
I'm hoping that the :5: really thrives with the distance and the better pace, and steps her game up today.

:8: is a LONGGG SHOT first on turf after closing into 3 slow paces on dirt. Fun add underneath.

:4: is a toss for me.

TRIFECTA ARRAY = $120
$2 Tri
:5::9: /:3::5::7::8::9::10: / :3::5::7::8::9::10: =$80

$50cent Tri
:5::9: / :5::7::8::9::10: / :3::5::7::8::9::10: =$16

$50cent Tri
:5::9: / :5::7::8::9: / :3::5::7::8::9::10: =$12

$50cent Tri
:5::9: / :5::7::9: / :3::5::7::8::9::10: =$8

$50cent Tri
:5::9: / :5::9: / :3::5::7::8::9::10: =$4

[Robert Fischer]

-932.50
Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $3924.10
Churn $8385.50

[Robert Fischer]

time to turn this around

no more pick4's without opinions!

MNR R1 DDs WAGERED $88

$20 :5::6: / :4: =$40

$8 :3: / :4: = $8
$8 :5::6: / :2::5: =$32

$4 :3: / :2::5: = $8

[Robert Fischer]

MNR R2

really soft pk4 and I think r5 has a good chance to go Parker or Sullivan

50cent 'cave man' pk4

:4::5: / :2: / :4::5::6::7: / :1::2::3::5: =$16

[Robert Fischer]

mnr r3 WAGERED $36

$1pk3 :1: / :4::5::7: / :2::3::5: =$9

$3pk3 :2: / :4::5::7: / :2::3::5: =$27

[Robert Fischer]

mnr r5 WAGERED $240

exactas

$10 exbx :2::3::5::7: =$120

$20 exbx :3::5::7: =$120

I hate the 1, and I think the public is anchored to the low ml.

[Robert Fischer]

$pick 3 :2: / :4: / :2: pays $111
(SESSION TOTAL $380 (-269))



$3pk3 :2: / :4::5::7: / :2::3::5: =$27

[Robert Fischer]

Race 1 Aqueduct

http://oi67.tinypic.com/2gtc1o8.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

^ up there i have an 'opinionated/concentrated pk3

here is my pk5.
I think that race 4 is a chaos race:

http://oi63.tinypic.com/un7yf.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

r3 pk3
http://oi68.tinypic.com/1p78qt.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $2980.10
Churn $9634

[Robert Fischer]

AQUEDUCT R1 pk3 wagered $327

Here I'm working on ticket structure. Races look pretty solid.
Main opinion is that the Mott/Ortiz fav in race 2 is not a lock.
singled baby bear and lewis bay on separate tix to reinforce/dutch


http://oi68.tinypic.com/m76ys8.jpg
http://oi66.tinypic.com/34taohi.jpg
http://oi66.tinypic.com/23h9mkn.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

^guessing that race#2's :6:heavy meddle is more a 'default' fav who 'looks the part' in a field without much attractive form.

I could be wrong, I did not study these horses. Going by general systemic patterns here. I can get my hands dirty when it's more serious.

[Robert Fischer]

CORRECTION: THE 'ALL A'S should be for $3 rather than $1" Add $16 to the wager and the TOTAL SESSION IS NOW $343

AQUEDUCT R1 pk3


http://oi66.tinypic.com/34taohi.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

4TH CHOICE 'B' :1: DIVINE INTERVENTIO takes r1

$54 baby bear soup singles are OUT

A-A-A'S are OUT

Still allive to a bunch of 1 and 2 'B' tickets , and the lewis bay single.

I'd be just fine if a 'B' wins race 2 at a price and favorite :2: lewis bay takes the 3rd. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

my 'long shot' :10: giant rocks is OUT (due the 'B' taking a leg)

not a huge fan. I thought he's at least in the ballpark in these statebreds , and Maker.

a little insanity insurance
50cent Tri :10: /:1::4::6::8::11::12: /:1::4::6::8::11::12: =$15

SESSION TOTAL: $368

[Robert Fischer]

In this possible chaos race, Weaver scares me a bit.

$10 DD :5: / :2:

and a trainer exacta

$1 ex :6::8::10::12: / :5: =$4

SESSION TOTAL: $382

[Robert Fischer]

chalk :6: wins by maybe the easiest head/neck margin of all time, with the 8 belatedly narrowing the gap.


Looks like I was wrong about the :6:.

:ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

r3 pk3
$2 pk3 2 /369 / 24567810 =$42
$1 pk3 2 /1 / 24567810 =$7

ticket cost $49

[Robert Fischer]

Remsen

50c tri
:4:/ :2::6::7::8::9::10: /:1::7: = $5.50

10c Super
:4:/ :2::6::7::8::9::10: /:2::6::7::8::9::10: / :1::7: =$5

$5ex :4: / :2::7::8::9: , :2::7::8::9: / :4: =$40

$2exbx :4::7::8::9: = $24
$10 EXBX :4::7: =$20
WAGERED $94.50

[Robert Fischer]

:4:Takaful could be a monster

if not , I really like the :7: You're to Blame

[Robert Fischer]

Remsen

50c tri
:4:/ :2::6::7::8::9::10: /:1::7: = $5.50

10c Super
:4:/ :2::6::7::8::9::10: /:2::6::7::8::9::10: / :1::7: =$5

$5ex :4: / :2::7::8::9: , :2::7::8::9: / :4: =$40

$2exbx :4::7::8::9: = $24
$10 EXBX :4::7: =$20
WAGERED $94.50
94.50 -45(8-9) ex

[Robert Fischer]

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $2548.60
Churn $10110.50

[Robert Fischer]

Good Luck today!

I have a pretty good feel for the first 5 races today.

Lot of 'spread' type races. Strongest opinion is in race 4.


r1- Wide open FTS , 2 is dead on board.
r2- I like the 6, but I'm risking the 5 as a 'C'
r3- relegating TWTR to 'B' status, I think Engleharts may turn this into a Finger Lakes allowance, but I also put Team D(:2: :5: ) in my 'B' as backups



r1 pk3 $287

http://oi68.tinypic.com/21kdydd.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

with a spread in race 1 , this is really ideal for a pk5.
I've been stinking up the thread lately, and I can't build a pk5 while respecting my 'bankroll'.
Should be interesting.

[Robert Fischer]

I guess that was a somewhat strong opinion...

I used 6 'A's
I got the 3rd choice and there was some money on the horse who had ran Raging Town #6.

Better pick 5 opinion than a pick 3 opinion.

A's are alive and I didn't make out horribly there. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

r2 pk3

r2- I used the :1::1a:-entry as an 'A'. Poor value, but I'm taking the hit% here because of my opinion in race4. Also upgraded :5: to a 'B', same reason.

r3- :5:BOOMERANG TOY is very live and upgraded to an 'A'. :2: is a somewhat interesting longshot 'B'.

r4- I absolutely hate :3: BLAME THE THE THIEF. Using him strictly for 'defense' as a 'B-' (see ticket emphasis).



http://oi63.tinypic.com/hu3med.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Race2 :7: AMAZING ANN guts out the win.

'B' horse, that takes my ticket value down a few notches, but still a positive outcome. :ThmbUp:

so far wagered $494
pick 3 WILL PAYS =
$2
:4:$506
:8:$207
$1
:2:$203.25
:3:$386
:5:$201


can really see the money now on the Dutrow horses

[Robert Fischer]

r3pk3

http://oi67.tinypic.com/2rgyty9.jpg

also $10pk3
:2::5: :8:/ :4: / :2::7::12: =$90

[Robert Fischer]

looks like Repole has a decent one in race 4

[Robert Fischer]

:5: BOOMERANG TOY gamely outlasts the favorite:8: :ThmbUp:

got some good action going


PICK3 :1:'A' :7:'B' :5:'B' PAYS $201
(WAGERED $788)(-587)


WILL PAYS FOR R4

:2:-491
:4:-202
:7:-873

:3:-137.5
:6:-781.5

Great payout for the :4::ThmbUp:

No real multi race value moving forward from this race. Cat is out of the bag, and everyone knows that Pletcher has a good one.

[Robert Fischer]

race 4
50 cent TRI
4/2567/25678=$8
4/267/2567 =$4.50

50 CENT TRI BOX 2467 =$12

[Robert Fischer]

Had the FAV hammered , but the 7 FTS is a winning result.

$2 PICK 3 7'B' 5'A' 7'A' PAYS $873

(WAGERED $812.50)(310.50)

will pays race5 pk3

$2
2-$394.50
7-$965
12-$667.00

$1
3-$727


going to let the tickets ride out from here.

[Robert Fischer]

well... I see some possible value that I like here

i love the 3 rosedale arch , and I don't like the 1

will stretch that negative opinion of the 1 and will try to get the longshots 4 or 9 underneath

50cent tri 2,3,7,12 / 2,3,4,7,12 / 2,3,4,7,9,12 =$32
50cent tri 2 / 2,3,4,7,12 / 2,3,4,7,9,12 =$8
($40)


(WAGERED $852.50)(+270.50)

[Robert Fischer]

hated the 1 brightside up and he beat me there.

Fair enough. Didn't see him winning without a loose lead, and my 3 had every chance.


race 6
9= so dead on the board. I know the repole star tanked earlier, but no one is betting the 9. looks great on paper, TOSS.

6 = solid suckup type
10 = kmac special. capable of running BIG on his day.
2 = have a feeling this one can run a little, and needed experience. huge price.

WIN 10
use 2
use 6
use 1

[Robert Fischer]

(WAGERED $852.50)(+270.50)

Decent Day. A few unpredictable twists and turns, but things worked out. Didn't have any huge positive opinions (except later on the losing pletcher/repole FTS in r4), and still made out with mostly negative opinions and spread races.
Could argue that Brightside should have been a 'b', but I didn't like him, and fine with that.

Starting Bank $5K
Current Bank $2819.10
Churn $10963

[Robert Fischer]

Doing some betting in my own account on this rainy day, and talking out loud.

Race1 - I really dislike 4 Carradine. He's moving up in odds now but I'm expecting 7/2 or less. Poor footwork, and really needs the track to carry him. It could happen.
the 1entry is an underlay, but not impossible.
the 3 is the kind of horse who wins this race, but his stamina is no sure thing. Contessa seems to do pretty well with speed in the off-track as well.
the 5 horoscope is the value, but he could be a complete 'dud'

Tough (guessing game) race, I'm going 35 over ducasa over clement and drawing away in the 3rd

[Robert Fischer]

that couldn't have gone more wrong.

manny fell off the 5

and jose got carradine to change leads

[Robert Fischer]

race 2

ducasa looks like a 2/5 shot. Strong favorite
of the alternatives, the 6 megan's muse looks really pretty on paper, and ugly on film.
the 4 Aix en provence is the alternative.

race 3 has some suspect horses so I'll include Read the Dream even though appears to be too slow.

race 4 the midwest horse is a stretch for a value add , but Manny wants to tough it out after a hard fall, and I'm not sure I want to bet that as much as I admire that

[Robert Fischer]

Ducasa holds on @ 2.80...

Let me throw in some confirmation bias, and say that the 4 was actually a bigger threat to upset than the late moving 6. Yea the 6 made a belated rally that got interesting in the final strides... The 4 was breathing down the favorites neck all race, and made Ducasa run a complete race.
Or maybe I'm just confirming my own theory.

Race 3 is kinda weird.
You have the 7 ONLY YOU who really looks tired in his stretch runs, you have Manny toughing it out and they are going to try to be outside speed.
You have 1 GORELLI who really had an epic hang job in that FROSTI AGOSTI race.
Then you have the 6 READ THE DREAM who is a 'sucker horse' claimed 25kstate, and is going to take money.
I'm all mixed here. I actually think the Jockeys factor in here with the way Jose Ortiz is riding, he may get GORELLI to attend and brave it out. Manny will be under 'observation' for this ride. That was a tough fall.
As awful as the 1 and 7 can be finishing in the stretch, the 6 actually has a chance.
I'll just sit on my Ducasa pk3 ticket.

[Robert Fischer]

that was a mess

half the field hung in unison , the other half plodded up belatedly

looks like i lucked out with the 7 or 6

[Robert Fischer]

race4

Manny looks to be competent. What a warrior!
3 and 7 are both obvious.
3 taking all the money.

I expect the 2 to improve here.


chalky outlook for this race. Not much to bet

[Robert Fischer]

On the replays I really prefer the 7 joywave to the 3 tea and cricket

Joywave made a 'move' last time.

TnC kind of dragged Arroyo around. He changed leads so well, I had to look back at the turn to make sure it wasn't on the turn, but he's not the most talented horse.

I know Joywave is a claim from RR. I just feel he's the better horse here.

I expect the 2 to improve 2nd time NY. The form looks 'cheap' on paper. However, the horse is in a good program here with Midwest. We are moving into the Winter season. These are the kind of horses that are going to compete at playable odds.

[Robert Fischer]

oops cancel my midwest money

[Robert Fischer]

Tea and Cricket and Jose get to walk around the track uncontested.

I made a token win bet on JOYWAVE because TNC broke through the gate, and I already thought JOYWAVE was competitive.

[Robert Fischer]

race 5

i think the 5 is the most interesting here

14 has to be used, wish he had more speed

The 8 or 9 could be decent longshots

[Robert Fischer]

race 5

i think the 5 is the most interesting here

14 has to be used, wish he had more speed

The 8 or 9 could be decent longshots

14 well-handled and just off the lead early.

5 never did much running but was good enough for 2nd, once he found his stride. Ortiz with a solid, patient ride.

[Robert Fischer]

race 6

I'll take Frazil at an underlay, but I'd much prefer 4CASTAWAY or even 8 ONECATS CHANCE.


9 private tale is a heavily touted wiseguy horse. Not impossible, but I didn't take here.

[Robert Fischer]

In a race marred by mediocrity, the 3 takes the 6th.

I couldn't have played the 3 if I had studied the drf advance edition of the charts last night.


The important thing, is that the 6 Forrest Boy, my sentimental Sciacca horse, didn't win. Then I would have really felt dumb.

[Robert Fischer]

race 7

Pletcher is not really taking money here, and that was the main value hope.

The reach beyond that is the interesting 8, who draws Mike Luzzi for Bruce Brown.


The logical play here is to make a sandwich

[Robert Fischer]

TUNA MELT takes the 7th at 12-1.


Looked like tuna salad initially until things heated up late

[Robert Fischer]

Great work by Kendrick in the feature.

Race set up for Second City, but he did a great job of keeping in touch early and then his adjustments in mid-stretch.


Matt King Cole did not run horribly.
Castellano was hungry and he took that Rudy horse to the lead in the slop.

MKC was kind of up against the pace scenario, and you have to figure that he wasn't exactly 'over the top' as far as condition.
I'll have to re-watch, but he seemed to get in a solid race.