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PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 01:27 PM
If there is any poll I trust the most, it's the financial markets.

They started going up again around 11am...my guess is these bigger houses either have access to the exit polling data or are running their own exit polling operation in key battleground states. This thing appears to be all but over.

Anti-Trumpers win, country loses.

Have fun.

lamboguy
11-08-2016, 01:38 PM
gold coming back now

ReplayRandall
11-08-2016, 02:04 PM
If there is any poll I trust the most, it's the financial markets.

Trust the financial markets??....Funny sarcastic post, Mike.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 02:07 PM
Trust the financial markets??....Funny sarcastic post, Mike.When it comes to this right now? Election Day and the fact that the public isn't going to be made aware of exit polling until after polls close?

Yeah, I trust the market to tell me these things in its own way right now.

ebcorde
11-08-2016, 02:10 PM
you'll pull your money out of the market today to avoid the 500 point drop tomorrow if Trump wins

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 02:16 PM
Buying some far out of the money puts would be a nice bang for the buck.

barn32
11-08-2016, 02:30 PM
If there is any poll I trust the most, it's the financial markets.

They started going up again around 11am...my guess is these bigger houses either have access to the exit polling data or are running their own exit polling operation in key battleground states. This thing appears to be all but over.

And yesterday when the markets went up 300+ points I guess they had their Ouija Boards and crystal balls set up as well.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 02:32 PM
And yesterday when the markets went up 300+ points I guess they had their Ouija Boards and crystal balls set up as well.That was an overreaction to the Comey letter Sunday. The futures were way up Sunday night.

Come on...you know that

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 04:36 PM
After a brief sojourn down starting around 1pm, the markets are now heading back up into the close...I suspect brand new daily highs as we head into the close, confirming my original statement.

God help us all... :lol:

barn32
11-08-2016, 08:51 PM
It's hilarious watching the futures go from positive to negative and back again as Trump's numbers go up and down in Florida.

AltonKelsey
11-08-2016, 09:27 PM
Bookie betting odds still show Clinton 1/10 , but stock markets still think it could go either way, based on futures nonsense.

AltonKelsey
11-08-2016, 10:01 PM
per my prev . markets trading like trump already won

barn32
11-08-2016, 10:39 PM
The DOW is down 500 points because Trump will be President.

Is there that much uncertainty with a Trump presidency?

AltonKelsey
11-08-2016, 10:58 PM
markets are nutty

Parkview_Pirate
11-08-2016, 10:59 PM
The DOW is down 500 points because Trump will be President.

Is there that much uncertainty with a Trump presidency?

My two cents is that it's not so much "uncertainty", it's that Trump represents "game over" for the financial shenanigans that have propped up markets for 8 years now, where as Hillary was going to continue to "play along".

We're probably also seeing some overreaction by the HFT machines.

Either way, the market probably comes back over a week or so, of if Hillary wins and the market surges, you'll see the market go back down over the week.

Reversion to the mean, until traders have a better idea what the longer term outlook looks like. But longer term, most economic indicators are pointing down.....

barn32
11-08-2016, 11:17 PM
Well, obviously, this DOW move is an overreaction. How far will the DOW end up going down and at what point is it a buy.

These things are always overplayed.

I'm thinking it hits -700, I'm buying.

highnote
11-08-2016, 11:23 PM
Well, obviously, this DOW move is an overreaction. How far will the DOW end up going down and at what point is it a buy.

These things are always overplayed.

I'm thinking it hits -700, I'm buying.


I hope the market crashes. I can't wait to buy at bargain prices!!!!!!

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 11:25 PM
HAH! Down 600+ on the Dow...what a bunch of nutty fruitcakes. I guess I was wrong in this thread. They don't know squat.

Parkview_Pirate
11-08-2016, 11:27 PM
If Trump wins, it'll be a surprise and either way it's going to be close. Since the Lefties will be whining about the Russians rigging things, I'll predict we'll see some sporadic rioting in the next few days.

Therefore, I'll be waiting to go long until the violence settles down. If there's no violence, I'll be tempted to put a buy stop 10-15% then the futures, and then adjust it down if the market continues to fall.

Tor Ekman
11-08-2016, 11:31 PM
If Trump wins, it'll be a surprise and either way it's going to be close. Since the Lefties will be whining about the Russians rigging things, I'll predict we'll see some sporadic rioting in the next few days.

Therefore, I'll be waiting to go long until the violence settles down. If there's no violence, I'll be tempted to put a buy stop 10-15% then the futures, and then adjust it down if the market continues to fall.LAPD is already prepping riot mode if Trump wins

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 12:18 AM
By 9pm it was clear the markets were becoming convinced of a Trump win.

I actually recommended a short to some people at S&P Futures 2140 a few minutes before the carnage hit.

Just lucky. And holding it for the 100 point move, well, this is not so easy.

Truth be known, I've been predicting a Trump win for 18 months , but I was probably at my most pessimistic the last few days. Always seems to work like that.

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 12:21 AM
Can't believe I didn't at least buy some cheap out of the money puts....I'm such a dope

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 12:22 AM
Don't think they were all that 'cheap' but sure do look cheap now.

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 12:24 AM
Don't think they were all that 'cheap' but sure do look cheap now.That's why I didn't buy them! lol

I was looking at some, and I was like, damn...this is still pretty expensive...VIX was still around 20 at 4pm today, yes?

LOTS of hedging going on...

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 12:29 AM
Vix was under 19. at the money puts would get you about 4-1, 5-1 profit if the market opens up -100 ES points.

Not even as good as a Trump 6-1 bet, but less a bit less risk in the put. (you would not lose all the premium in one day)

Out of the money pay off better but not huge. Options markets are better when they can't see it coming.

If it was up to me the markets would be up 700 points not down. :)

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 12:34 AM
That's O for 2 for the markets on big , market moving events . Brexit & Trump.

Efficiently Wrong

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 12:35 AM
Yup

Parkview_Pirate
11-09-2016, 01:44 AM
Can't believe I didn't at least buy some cheap out of the money puts....I'm such a dope

Me too. But, we may have a chance to get some coin on some CALLS, after giving the markets a day or two to absorb the impact. Just look at the charts with BREXIT. There was a ton of money to be made on the rebound....

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 04:38 AM
Trump's acceptance speech...market had already come back more than 50% of it's almost 800-900 point loss

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 11:45 AM
I explained the markets were insane.

That's all you need to know.

They make horseplayers look like learned sages.

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 11:50 AM
Market was actually very close to being UP shortly after the open. DOW is now down 15 points... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

After being down something like 900 points last night in the futures... :eek:

Insane isn't the word...

AltonKelsey
11-09-2016, 12:31 PM
Yeah, trades like Adolf Hitler was elected, then like Jesus came back to earth.

Pack of idiots with more money than brains, basically.