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_______
11-07-2016, 11:27 AM
After 16 months of flame wars here, it's time to step up to the plate and take a swing at predicting MEASURABLE results of the election.

I know thread drift happens and there is nothing anyone can do to prevent it but my intent is that this be the place to document predictions and/or taking the other side of someone else's prediction.

And since no one is going to know if I have vomit on my shoes at midnight or reckless turned off the news at 9pm, please be sure that your prediction has a component that anyone can see is either true or false following the election.

These are 5 positions I have stated at various times in the run up along with a final brand new one:

Trump will underperform Romney with women (Romney received 44%)
Trump will underperform Romney with Hispanics (27%)
Trump will underperform Romney with Republicans (93%)
Trump will underperform Romney with Blacks (6%)
Trump will underperform Romney with non-Hispanic Whites (59%)

I know that last one would only be true in a landslide and we aren't getting a landslide but I did state it previously and will live with it.

My last demographic prediction is that Trump will underperform the Republican Senate candidate in every swing state holding a Senate election. Those are FL, PA, OH, NH, IA, and NV. You can add AZ and GA if you think those are potential swing states. (Romney OUTPERFORMED the Senate candidates by about 5% in 2012).

barahona44
11-07-2016, 11:34 AM
Underperform 1-3
Overperform.4 (no Obama)
Overperform 5, but not by much

DSB
11-07-2016, 11:38 AM
Trump will greatly over-perform Romney in the electoral college.

And that's all that matters.

upthecreek
11-07-2016, 11:41 AM
Trump will greatly over-perform Romney in the electoral college.

And that's all that matters.
Romney got 206 Looks like Trump gets 186

lamboguy
11-07-2016, 11:42 AM
this election will not be decided by the people that vote, it will be decided by the people that count the votes. Trump might be very underestimated in that department, that's why everyone is out there betting on the hag.

upthecreek
11-07-2016, 11:42 AM
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-91849144/

DSB
11-07-2016, 11:54 AM
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-91849144/

I said he will out-perform Romney.

What you post has no bearing on whether I'm right or wrong.

Believe whatever you want... if it makes you feel better.

ReplayRandall
11-07-2016, 12:02 PM
Electoral College Prediction:

Clinton- 289

Trump- 249

My prediction is based on Clinton winning Florida, but if Trump pulls off a miracle and takes Florida, Trump will win 278-260....But, I just don't see this happening.

PaceAdvantage
11-07-2016, 12:14 PM
I am fading you big time on position #4

upthecreek
11-07-2016, 01:27 PM
I said he will out-perform Romney.

What you post has no bearing on whether I'm right or wrong.

Believe whatever you want... if it makes you feel better.y
I just posted an article I did give a rats ass if your right or wrong We will see tomorrow
I hope Trump gets 400 Electoral votes, but wishing don't it make it true

classhandicapper
11-07-2016, 02:12 PM
Here's a better prediction.

The US and global economy will do even worse under Clinton than it did under Obama. So get defensive in your 401K, raise cash, pay down debt, buy a little gold, and pray you get to the other side in good shape.

When the bear market and recession hits this time they are going to crank up the printing presses even faster than QE1-3, run 1.5 to 2 trillion dollar deficits, set interest rates negative, at least one or two major countries are going to collapse like Greece/Venezuela, the real unemployment rate will soar, the roles for welfare/food stamps/medicaid will soar, state and city pensions are going to be so underfunded they may require government bailouts and/or dramatic cuts to benefits, and people are going to be marching in the streets with a level of anger that makes this election look like a kid's party.

Oh yeah, the next anti establishment candidates from the left and right will be worse than Sanders and Trump.

DSB
11-07-2016, 02:14 PM
y
I just posted an article I did give a rats ass if your right or wrong We will see tomorrow
I hope Trump gets 400 Electoral votes, but wishing don't it make it true
:rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
11-07-2016, 02:30 PM
Considering how awful the Trump naysayers have been about predicting results when it comes to Trump, I'll fade EVERY single _______ position, but most of my money is on #4 of course.

upthecreek
11-07-2016, 02:54 PM
Considering how awful the Trump naysayers have been about predicting results when it comes to Trump, I'll fade EVERY single _______ position, but most of my money is on #4 of course.
I didn't predict anything , that's from LA Times and 2 other sites that agree
Like I said I hope Trump gets 400

dartman51
11-07-2016, 03:12 PM
Romney got 206 Looks like Trump gets 186


CNN has Clinton at 268 and Trump at 206.

_______
11-07-2016, 03:16 PM
Considering how awful the Trump naysayers have been about predicting results when it comes to Trump, I'll fade EVERY single _______ position, but most of my money is on #4 of course.

You keep saying this and I keep pointing out that I said Trump was the nominee after New Hampshire. If you want, I'll list a whole string of predictions I made after that which were all proved correct but I'm hoping to keep the thread on point.

dartman51
11-07-2016, 03:16 PM
Considering how awful the Trump naysayers have been about predicting results when it comes to Trump, I'll fade EVERY single _______ position, but most of my money is on #4 of course.


Trump gets 13% or better in the Black vote. :ThmbUp:

elysiantraveller
11-07-2016, 05:04 PM
You keep saying this and I keep pointing out that I said Trump was the nominee after New Hampshire. If you want, I'll list a whole string of predictions I made after that which were all proved correct but I'm hoping to keep the thread on point.

Very hard for most to admit they backed a loser.

I agree with everyone of your points except maybe the last.

Marshall Bennett
11-07-2016, 06:19 PM
Electoral College Prediction:

Clinton- 289

Trump- 249

My prediction is based on Clinton winning Florida, but if Trump pulls off a miracle and takes Florida, Trump will win 278-260....But, I just don't see this happening.
I do...maybe. The older voters would be the most likely to swing over and loads of them live there. Most I'm sure are Republicans, but who knows how many he'll need?

zico20
11-07-2016, 06:28 PM
Trump gets 13% or better in the Black vote. :ThmbUp:

No way, no how. Trump will get 6-7 percent of the black vote. If he get 13 percent he wins the election in a landslide.

lamboguy
11-07-2016, 06:29 PM
No way, no how. Trump will get 6-7 percent of the black vote. If he get 13 percent he wins the election in a landslide.not that i am ever right, but i would bet he gets over 10% and lay 2-1 to go with that wager!

reckless
11-08-2016, 01:07 AM
Every prediction in post #1 will be proven totally and emphatically wrong today, Election Day, when America takes its country back.

Trump is a cinch to win and defeat the criminal and anti-American Hillary Clinton.

You heard it here first by me, many months ago, and I emphasize it again one last time, today.

Once more: Trump is a cinch to win and defeat the criminal and anti-American, Hillary Clinton.

barn32
11-08-2016, 01:18 AM
You heard it here first by me, many months ago...You weren't even close to being first.

reckless
11-08-2016, 06:23 AM
You weren't even close to being first.

You're wrong once more but you tell us who before me said that Donald Trump was an absolute cinch to win.

ebcorde
11-08-2016, 07:10 AM
Vote straight ticket Democrat.

ebcorde
11-08-2016, 07:18 AM
The stupid TV media said everyone is too grossed out to vote. I knew it would be the opposite (everyone is too ticked off, they can't wait to vote)


The TV Media will be proved wrong. Hillary in a romp and then hopefully the TV Media is finally exposed as being part of the problem.

barn32
11-08-2016, 07:51 AM
You're wrong once more but you tell us who before me said that Donald Trump was an absolute cinch to win.Once more?

I was the first to say that Donald Trump would be the next president of the United States, and I can prove it. Oh wait, I already have.

[Do I have to do it again?]

thaskalos
11-08-2016, 08:43 AM
My prediction is that Wednesday will be a day of mourning on this board.

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 08:48 AM
My prediction is that Wednesday will be a day of mourning on this board.

It will be...

But it won't be their fault for backing a loser. It will be everyone else's.

My protest vote is lodged... #100 at my station. :)

_______
11-08-2016, 09:38 AM
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/B1011.png

Arizona is a stretch but given the profile of early voters in Nevada, I'm going to roll the dice on a wave of Hispanic voters driven by Trump's poisonous rhetoric.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 09:41 AM
Very hard for most to admit they backed a loser.

I agree with everyone of your points except maybe the last.Not hard for me. I 100% believe Trump is the better choice at this point. No doubt.

But if he loses, so be it.

I think this is going to be much closer than anyone thinks, and I don't agree he only has a 28-30% to win it (as 538 claims).

I think his chances are much, much better than that.

You all can mock me all you want. If this is a fair election (and that's a big if from all the reports I've seen), then we might be looking at a Brexit type scenario later tonight. Shock the world baby...

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 09:42 AM
No way, no how. Trump will get 6-7 percent of the black vote. If he get 13 percent he wins the election in a landslide.Then he's going to win, if that's the case. Because not only will he double Romney's total, I predict he gets close to 20% of the black vote.

You read it here first.

MONEY
11-08-2016, 09:48 AM
Very hard for most to admit they backed a loser.

I agree with everyone of your points except maybe the last.

Not for me, I voted for the loser in the last four presidential elections.
If/When Trump loses it will be five.

_______
11-08-2016, 09:50 AM
One last prediction: Clinton leads Trump by 3.3 points in the RCP 4 way average. I'll take a stand that Trump underperforms this (The gap is wider than 3.3).

His disinterest in the nuts and bolts of politics and failure to build any national GOTV effort will be reflected in the results. Motivated voters on both sides will get to the polls. But only Democrats will turn out less motivated voters.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 09:51 AM
Not for me, I voted for the loser in the last four presidential elections.
If/When Trump loses it will be five.Ditto...like I said, we're used to the BS and will move on as usual...

Now, if it ends up the other way around...oh boy...the show will be spectacular in terms of exploding heads and mental breakdowns...that's what *I* want to see! :jump:

hcap
11-08-2016, 09:51 AM
Then he's going to win, if that's the case. Because not only will he double Romney's total, I predict he gets close to 20% of the black vote.

You read it here first.Not according to almost all the polls. However Trump will do much better than Clinton among these groups.
But I can't claim I said it first. :lol: :lol: ....

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 09:54 AM
Not according to almost all the polls. However Trump will do much better than Clinton among these groups.
But I can't claim I said it first. :lol: :lol: ....

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.You mean the way black panthers did when Obama was running in Philly? You mean like that?

That's fine...each fringe hate group has to have their day in the sun I guess. Freedom of speech and all that.

BTW, did you know the KKK was the creation of the Democrats? Basically, the police force of the Democrats in the south? Maybe you didn't know that.

Did you know a former KKK EXALTED CYCLOPS (whatever the hell that is) sat in the Senate as a registered DEMOCRAT for OVER 50 YEARS! And HILLARY CLINTON counted him as a MENTOR and FRIEND and threw heaps of praise upon him the day he died?

I guess you didn't know that. Same can't be said about Donald J. Trump.

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 10:59 AM
Arizona is a stretch but given the profile of early voters in Nevada, I'm going to roll the dice on a wave of Hispanic voters driven by Trump's poisonous rhetoric.

I came to this exact same conclusion. McCain being up for re-election makes Arizona tough sledding for Hillary so I put it at 323 for her.

andtheyreoff
11-08-2016, 11:10 AM
Trump- 538
Hillary- 0

You heard it here first.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 11:11 AM
Trump- 538
Hillary- 0

You heard it here first.Yeah, I agree. I think Mondale won one state, right? Trump won't win any states.

_______
11-08-2016, 11:17 AM
Yeah, I agree. I think Mondale won one state, right? Trump won't win any states.

Plus D.C.

Tom
11-08-2016, 11:20 AM
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Very hard for most to admit they backed a loser.

The losers are those who voted for Hillary.
Win the election, lose the nation.

Do you suggest people vote for Hillary because she is the most likely winner?

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 12:08 PM
The losers are those who voted for Hillary.
Win the election, lose the nation.

Do you suggest people vote for Hillary because she is the most likely winner?

I suggested idiots like the people on here back someone capable of defeating the worst Democratic nominee in my lifetime... they didn't.

Marshall Bennett
11-08-2016, 12:19 PM
McGovern was only able to win Massachusetts and DC. against Nixon. No way Trump does anywhere near this poorly. People are forgetting who Trump's opponent is. She sure ain't the caliber of no Reagan or Nixon.

Tom
11-08-2016, 12:20 PM
Makes sense. Find a POS GOP candidate will not be any different than Hillary just to beat her. Good plan.

barahona44
11-08-2016, 12:29 PM
Then he's going to win, if that's the case. Because not only will he double Romney's total, I predict he gets close to 20% of the black vote.

You read it here first.
I'll bet Fantasyland is your favorite place in Disney World :D

ElKabong
11-08-2016, 12:43 PM
My prediction is that Wednesday will be a day of mourning on this board.

Much like the past 8 years for the rest of the country.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for four more years of slower than necessary economic recovery, more chaos and war in the Middle East, more corrupt business as usual.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 12:46 PM
I'll bet Fantasyland is your favorite place in Disney World :DYou think it's such a stretch that 2 out of every 10 black voters might vote Trump over Hillary? I don't.

thaskalos
11-08-2016, 12:58 PM
Much like the past 8 years for the rest of the country.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for four more years of slower than necessary economic recovery, more chaos and war in the Middle East, more corrupt business as usual.

Unfortunately...we'll never find out what a vote for TRUMP would have meant.

ebcorde
11-08-2016, 12:58 PM
In 2004 when I returned home in Late October for a couple of weeks. The media said Kerry was poised for an upset. He got crushed.

My memory is clear because that was the only Breeder's cup I missed
at Lone Star I learned the Swiss don't follow Horse Racing or have betting parlors.

ebcorde
11-08-2016, 01:05 PM
Much like the past 8 years for the rest of the country.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for four more years of slower than necessary economic recovery, more chaos and war in the Middle East, more corrupt business as usual.


Bull.


In Red State country, When they run for state office the State economy is doing great, but when it's for the office of President the economy sucks.




I see this Pence bragging about the Indiana economy , then you ask a Indiana voter , and they want the jobs to come back. :lol:

Drain the Swamp should also mean get rid of the GOP in the red states, no?

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 02:08 PM
Makes sense. Find a POS GOP candidate will not be any different than Hillary just to beat her. Good plan.

Politically, Trump was the closest to Hillary out of anyone on that the GOP had to put up...

3 Most Important roles of government:

1) Defense
2) Education
3) Healthcare

That was his list.

But I digress... I backed the loser Romney you get to back the loser Trump. My loser did better against an opponent who was better by light-years!

Tom
11-08-2016, 02:50 PM
I'll bet Fantasyland is your favorite place in Disney World :D

So your premise that over 80% of Black voters are racists?

Tom
11-08-2016, 02:52 PM
But I digress... I backed the loser Romney you get to back the loser Trump. My loser did better against an opponent who was better by light-years!

So your candidate lost and that makes you wrong?

barahona44
11-08-2016, 02:55 PM
You think it's such a stretch that 2 out of every 10 black voters might vote Trump over Hillary? I don't.
Yep.

Since the Voting Rights Act of 1964, Gerald Ford has the highest GOP % of the black vote,15%.He was running against a Southern, white governor when a lot of the Civil Rights battles were still fresh on people's minds and there was a distrust among some black Americans of white Southern politicians. But Jimmy Carter still got almost 5/6 of that vote.
.
I don't see anything that would give black voters a compelling reason to double the usual 10 % that Republicans have been getting in non Obama elections.

barahona44
11-08-2016, 02:58 PM
So your premise that over 80% of Black voters are racists?
Uhhh, if they vote for Clinton, they are still voting for someone of the Caucasian persuasion.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 03:08 PM
Yep.

Since the Voting Rights Act of 1964, Gerald Ford has the highest GOP % of the black vote,15%.He was running against a Southern, white governor when a lot of the Civil Rights battles were still fresh on people's minds and there was a distrust among some black Americans of white Southern politicians. But Jimmy Carter still got almost 5/6 of that vote.
.
I don't see anything that would give black voters a compelling reason to double the usual 10 % that Republicans have been getting in non Obama elections.Ah, but this time it's different...trust me...one of us is going to be shocked at the percentage Trump ends up getting.

barahona44
11-08-2016, 03:15 PM
Ah, but this time it's different...trust me...one of us is going to be shocked at the percentage Trump ends up getting.
First boldface statement-the calling card of hope over experience

Second boldface statement- When someone says "Trust me", my trust in them immediately evaporates. :)

Happy voting!

Tom
11-08-2016, 03:49 PM
Uhhh, if they vote for Clinton, they are still voting for someone of the Caucasian persuasion.

No, the presumption here is they are voting for the Obama team.
Which was a landslide racist vote last two time.
I don't see anything that would give black voters a compelling reason to double the usual 10 % that Republicans have been getting in non Obama elections.

Why in hell would a Black voter think he was going to get any better life by voting for the same slugs he has been voting for for decades?
Why should a Black voter look at republicans?

Baltimore
Chicago
Ferguson

Why would any sane Black person vote for a democrat who has done NOTHING for Black people since they took off their white hoods?

As a voting block, Blacks are too swift.

ElKabong
11-08-2016, 03:56 PM
Bull.


In Red State country, When they run for state office the State economy is doing great, but when it's for the office of President the economy sucks.




I see this Pence bragging about the Indiana economy , then you ask a Indiana voter , and they want the jobs to come back. :lol:

Drain the Swamp should also mean get rid of the GOP in the red states, no?

Salaries here in Texas are not headed in the right direction. I've posted about this in the past, not going to repeat it time and time again

Are we doing better than blue states? Absolutely. So what, tho... The economy is in the shitter. Obama failed,,can't see Clinton doing any better

zico20
11-08-2016, 04:35 PM
Then he's going to win, if that's the case. Because not only will he double Romney's total, I predict he gets close to 20% of the black vote.

You read it here first.

Here is an article claiming Trump is doing very well with black voters, in some instances receiving close to 20 percent in key swing states in recent polling.

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/what-is-there-to-lose-black-voters-could-put-trump-over-the-top/

Nutz and Boltz
11-08-2016, 05:26 PM
I don't see Trump conceding if he loses tonight. He might take it to the courts, contending voter fraud. It ain't over 'til it's over. This mess is going to go on, and on, and on.

If Clinton loses she has no choice but to concede.

_______
11-08-2016, 06:19 PM
So lots of discussion here but very few measurable predictions.

If you want to make a prediction, please do so before 7pm EDT. Polls closing are gates opening. No bets taken afterwards.

EMD4ME
11-08-2016, 06:20 PM
So lots of discussion here but very few measurable predictions.

If you want to make a prediction, please do so before 7pm EDT. Polls closing are gates opening. No bets taken afterwards.

Trump pulls it out. Intelligent Americans country wide give a BIG Funk You to the system :ThmbUp:

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 06:40 PM
So lots of discussion here but very few measurable predictions.

If you want to make a prediction, please do so before 7pm EDT. Polls closing are gates opening. No bets taken afterwards.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/VVLvY.png

Mitt Romney outperforms Donald Trump in all demographics save maybe the black vote.

Everyone on here will blame everything except the insanity of thinking Donald Trump should be the Republican Nominee for President.

Steve 'StatMan'
11-08-2016, 06:45 PM
I vote outperform in #1, 2, 4 & 5. Undeperform in #3 (republicans vs Romney).

_______
11-08-2016, 07:01 PM
Thanks to all who put their opinion on the line. Polls have closed in Virginia/Georgia and others.

_______
11-08-2016, 07:13 PM
Ohio union vote split evenly in exit polls. Obama was +20 in 2012. Ohio will go to Trump.

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 07:58 PM
Ohio union vote split evenly in exit polls. Obama was +20 in 2012. Ohio will go to Trump.

Trump Campaign claiming they don't have models on the Independent vote in Florida... Hilarious...

_______
11-08-2016, 08:00 PM
Trump Campaign claiming they don't have models on the Independent vote in Florida... Hilarious...

Why would they? He ran a campaign on the cheap and got what he paid for.

elysiantraveller
11-08-2016, 08:05 PM
Why would they? He ran a campaign on the cheap and got what he paid for.

Amazingly (not really) she is outperforming Obama so far... Trump couldn't be that bad... could he...? :lol:

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2016, 10:34 PM
2.5 hours and not another comment?

Holding your breath I assume...win or lose, this has been a fun night already

ReplayRandall
11-08-2016, 11:04 PM
Electoral College Prediction:

Clinton- 289

Trump- 249

My prediction is based on Clinton winning Florida, but if Trump pulls off a miracle and takes Florida, Trump will win 278-260....But, I just don't see this happening.
THE MIRACLE OF FLORIDA.....DONALD TRUMP WILL BE POTUS!!

Tor Ekman
11-08-2016, 11:05 PM
Trump might well go north of 300 electoral votes

PaceAdvantage
11-09-2016, 04:12 AM
Looks like I won my lock bet on #4, although barely...CNN reports Trump won 8% of black vote versus Romney's 7%...

Oh, and Trump won more Latino support than Romney, 29%-27%...

He tied Romney among young people ages 18-29...37%-37%

Someone can fill in the _________ on all the rest.... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

JustRalph
11-09-2016, 04:36 AM
Looks like I won my lock bet on #4, although barely...CNN reports Trump won 8% of black vote versus Romney's 7%...

Oh, and Trump won more Latino support than Romney, 29%-27%...

He tied Romney among young people ages 18-29...37%-37%

Someone can fill in the _________ on all the rest.... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I want to see the final tally in PHilly...........

reckless
11-09-2016, 05:27 AM
This just in on 538 ...

Nate Silver says: 'Donald Trump is 100% certain of winning the Presidency of the US... Trump proves all the pollsters wrong but 538 just called this on Trump's chances...' :lol: :lol: :lol:

Often wrong, never in doubt Nate Silver. What a fake, phoney, fraud he is... I tried to clue you guys in on what a crackpot he is.

Tom
11-09-2016, 08:01 AM
I suggested idiots like the people on here back someone capable of defeating the worst Democratic nominee in my lifetime... they didn't.

BUMP.

Apparently not.

elysiantraveller
11-09-2016, 08:23 AM
BUMP.

Apparently not.

Eating crow... lots of it... congrats to all of you who were right. I hope he accomplishes what you put him in office for.

Also sitting here waiting for mortgage rates to come out with a slight bit of concern.

_______
11-09-2016, 10:09 AM
Trump will underperform Romney with women (Romney received 44%) 42%
Trump will underperform Romney with Hispanics (27%) 29%
Trump will underperform Romney with Republicans (93%) -haven't seen this yet
Trump will underperform Romney with Blacks (6%) 8%
Trump will underperform Romney with non-Hispanic Whites (59%) -haven't seen this yet but conceding he obviously outperformed Romney.

Also conceding the other prediction re: relative strength vs. Senate candidates.

What an interesting night that was. I held out hope until Florida was called.

He's going to be my President now and I'll root for his success.

_______
11-09-2016, 10:13 AM
This just in on 538 ...

Nate Silver says: 'Donald Trump is 100% certain of winning the Presidency of the US... Trump proves all the pollsters wrong but 538 just called this on Trump's chances...' :lol: :lol: :lol:

Often wrong, never in doubt Nate Silver. What a fake, phoney, fraud he is... I tried to clue you guys in on what a crackpot he is.

fivethirtyeight consistently gave Trump the best chance of all the aggregator's. If you had listened to Silver, you heard him repeatedly state people were too comfortable with a Hillary victory being in the bag.

mountainman
11-09-2016, 10:34 AM
Great call from those who kept the faith and disputed my ill-informed proclamation that Hillary COULD NOT LOSE.

You guys now look like prophets...Myself?? Well..lol...maybe not so much.

Trump woke the sleeping giant. And the country was reclaimed.

classhandicapper
11-09-2016, 10:49 AM
Eating crow... lots of it... congrats to all of you who were right. I hope he accomplishes what you put him in office for.



Sometimes longshots win. Stay well.

reckless
11-15-2016, 10:27 AM
fivethirtyeight consistently gave Trump the best chance of all the aggregator's. If you had listened to Silver, you heard him repeatedly state people were too comfortable with a Hillary victory being in the bag.

Just saw this...

The liberals favorite crackpot, Nate Silver -- always wrong, never in doubt, by the way -- was doing plenty of back stepping and face saving in the waning days of this election. People could defend him and revise history all they wish...

I do not listen to Nate Silver -- he was exposed as a phony, goof ball and a cheat years and years ago. Only diehard left wing believers think otherwise, which explains all the silly and laughable 538 links and charts posted ad nauseum this election season.

Actually, those who said that Hillary was a loser and all the web sites and polls calling her the sure winner wrong were people like.... me! :lol: :lol:

EasyGoer89
11-15-2016, 02:42 PM
One last prediction: Clinton leads Trump by 3.3 points in the RCP 4 way average. I'll take a stand that Trump underperforms this (The gap is wider than 3.3).

His disinterest in the nuts and bolts of politics and failure to build any national GOTV effort will be reflected in the results. Motivated voters on both sides will get to the polls. But only Democrats will turn out less motivated voters.

If you ever lose your job as an election predictor, I hear ringling Bros is hiring circus clowns, you won't be unemployed for long.

https://www.ringling.com

_______
11-15-2016, 04:24 PM
If you ever lose your job as an election predictor, I hear ringling Bros is hiring circus clowns, you won't be unemployed for long.

https://www.ringling.com

It's never fun to be wrong but one of the side benefits of making a prediction is watching those who lacked the balls beforehand come crawling out of the woodwork to criticize it after settlement.

Reckless has my respect as he was all out on a long shot and proven right. You were too weak kneed to join the conversation when it mattered.

But you found your courage now. That's something I suppose.

lamboguy
11-15-2016, 06:48 PM
i'm a complete idiot after betting elections for 40 years. i had Massachusetts dead wrong in july. to this day i am in compete shock that Trump lost this state. congratulations are in order for all the smart ones that had Mass. going to the democrats.

on the other side of the coin, i did have Alaska right and made it count! fortunately i never found a line on Mass. otherwise i would have gone broke.

PaceAdvantage
11-17-2016, 03:51 PM
It's never fun to be wrong but one of the side benefits of making a prediction is watching those who lacked the balls beforehand come crawling out of the woodwork to criticize it after settlement.

Reckless has my respect as he was all out on a long shot and proven right. You were too weak kneed to join the conversation when it mattered.

But you found your courage now. That's something I suppose.You weren't exactly Mr. Foundation yourself. Every time Trump clawed his way back in the polls, you would disappear for quite long stretches of time...

Only when Trump was "floundering" or perceived to be floundering, would you make your stand on here...you're quite right that reckless was one of only a small handful, who no matter what the current polls said, was rock-solid in his stance.

PaceAdvantage
11-17-2016, 03:52 PM
When was the last time Massachusetts voted Republican for President? Reagan? :lol:

lamboguy
11-17-2016, 04:14 PM
You weren't exactly Mr. Foundation yourself. Every time Trump clawed his way back in the polls, you would disappear for quite long stretches of time...

Only when Trump was "floundering" or perceived to be floundering, would you make your stand on here...you're quite right that reckless was one of only a small handful, who no matter what the current polls said, was rock-solid in his stance.good luck to the guy, let him have his fun. he can slam me all he wants on my election prediction skills.

EasyGoer89
11-17-2016, 05:02 PM
It's never fun to be wrong but one of the side benefits of making a prediction is watching those who lacked the balls beforehand come crawling out of the woodwork to criticize it after settlement.

Reckless has my respect as he was all out on a long shot and proven right. You were too weak kneed to join the conversation when it mattered.

But you found your courage now. That's something I suppose.

youre not being criticized for making a wrong prediction. If you were humble in your prediction, it's pretty likely you wouldn't have had someone ask you 'how did that turn out' Don't expect to be an 'in your face' and condescending/arrogant predictor and think nobody will call you on it if you lose.