HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 11/6

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning everyone!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 11 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN. EST

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for at least 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Early selections to follow.

GL if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any live selections at Hong Kong this morning.

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.
There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #4 - #8 - #9 - #10

R#1 -1400M (7F) Turf….....3-4 W/ 13-5-7-6 .......12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 with possibly of #5 moving up)

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf......2-7 W/ 1-10-3-11 ….......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 possibly moving up)

R#3 - 1400M (7F) Turf......3-8 W/ 1-4-12-2...........1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 possibly moving up)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf......2-5 W/ 4-6-3-11…....….2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 possibly moving up)

R#5 - 1000M (6F) Turf…....1-2 W/ 6-9-8-3..........2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 or #8 possibly moving up)

R#6 - 1600M (8F) Turf.......5-6 W/ 11-2-3-8……....3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 with possibly of #2 moving up)

R#7 - 1400M (7F) Turf….....2-6 W/ 4-1-7-13.........3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 possibly moving up)

R#8 -1800M (9F) Turf.........2-4 W/ 5-1-8-14-11 .......4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 with possibly moving up)

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf.......3-2 W/ 1-7-10-14-9.....4:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 or #9 possibly moving up)

R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf......1-3 W/ 8-7-4-5.......5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 with possibly of #7 moving up)

R#11 - 1400M (7F) Turf......1-3 W/ 4-8-5-2........5:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 with possibly of #8 moving up)

[Nitro]

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 3-4 W/ 13-5-7-6...........Results: 13-3-9-5 (3rd choice – & Quin Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 4.4/1 ) – 4 ( 15/1 ) – 13 ( 2.4/1 ) - $50.00) – $50.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 4.4 15.0 BET PRF
$7 $11 $32
$32 $20 $7 $59 $50 85%
$109 $109 $109
1 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live

[Nitro]

R#2 - 2-7 W/ 1-10-3-11...........Results: 10-3-2-1 (4th choice & $159 TRI – Winner moved up Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 3.2/1 ) – 7 ( 8.7/1 ) – 1 ( 5/1 ) - ($41.00) – $9.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 5.0 8.7 BET PRF
$8 $12 $19
$19 $14 $8 $41 $40 97%
$81 $81 $81
1 for 2 Early & 2 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 3-8 W/ 1-4-12-2............. Results: 9-7-12-6 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 5.4/1 ) – 8 ( 4.8/1 ) – 1 ( 6/1 ) - ($38.00) – ($47.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 5.4 6.0 BET PRF
$12 $13 $14
$14 $13 $12 $38 $43 112%
$81 $81 $81
1 for 3 Early & 2 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-3-11.........Results: 11-12-6-4 (6th choice & Moved way up Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 16/1 ) – 5 ( 8.3/1 ) – 4 ( 1.8/1 ) - ($50.00) – ($97.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.8 8.3 16.0 BET PRF
$6 $19 $34
$34 $10 $6 $50 $45 91%
$95 $95 $95
1 for 4 Early & 3 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 6-9-8-3......... Results: 7-8/12-2 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 6.3/1 ) – 2 ( 3.1/1 ) – 6 ( 26/1 ) - ($46.00) – ($143.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.1 6.3 26.0 BET PRF
$8 $15 $54
$27 $15 $4 $46 $65 141%
$111 $110 $108
1 for 5 Early & 3 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 5-6 W/ 11-2-3-8......... Results: 13-6-2-12 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 8/1 ) – 6 ( 1.9/1 ) – 11 ( 42/1 ) - ($60.00) – ($203.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 8.0 42.0 BET PRF
$6 $18 $86
$43 $14 $3 $60 $65 108%
$125 $126 $129
1 for 6 Early & 3 for 6 Live

[Nitro]

R#7 - 2-6 W/ 4-1-7-13……….Results: 4-13-1-5 (3rd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 13/1 ) – 6 ( 11/1 ) – 4 ( 2.6/1 ) - $116.00 – ($87.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 11.0 13.0 BET PRF
$7 $24 $28
$56 $16 $14 $86 $116 134%
$202 $192 $196
2 for 7 Early & 4 for 7 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-4 W/ 5-1-8-14-11........ Results: 5-1-14-4 (3rd choice Early & Live – All of that one!)
Dutch – 2 ( 33/1 ) – 4 ( 5.9/1 ) – 5 ( 29/1 ) - $372.00 – $285.00 :ThmbUp:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.9 29.0 33.0 BET PRF
$14 $60 $68
$68 $16 $14 $97 $372 382%
$469 $469 $469
3 for 8 Early & 5 for 8 Live

[Nitro]

R#9 - 3-2 W/ 1-7-10-14-9.......... Results: 4-7-9-3 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 9/1 ) – 2 ( 20/1 ) – 1 ( 26/1 ) - ($50.00) – $235.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
9.0 20.0 26.0 BET PRF
$20 $42 $54
$27 $13 $10 $50 $220 440%
$270 $273 $270
3 for 9 Early & 5 for 9 Live

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-3 W/ 8-7-4-5......... Results: 7-8-13-1 (4th choice Early – Moved up Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 8.1/1 ) – 3 ( 22/1 ) – 8 ( 2.1/1 ) - ($34.00) – $201.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 8.1 22.0 BET PRF
$6 $18 $46
$23 $8 $3 $34 $37 110%
$71 $73 $69
3 for 10 Early & 6 for 10 Live

[Nitro]

R#11 - 1-3 W/ 4-8-5-2........ Results: 4-8-5-12 (3rd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 11/1 ) – 3 ( 17/1 ) – 4 ( 2.7/1 ) - $87.00 – $288.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 11.0 18.0 BET PRF
$8 $24 $38
$38 $12 $8 $58 $87 151%
$144 $144 $144
4 for 11 Early Picks & 7 for 11 Live Picks

These O.A. results were accomplished using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting only 4 out of 11 races (36%) still produced a hypothetical profit of $288 after betting $619 or a 47% Net profit margin. (A 4.7 ROI).
The Live final selections turned to be much more rewarding with hit rate of 64%.

Of course, some might scoff at posting 6 selections per race (in fields of 12 to 14 entries), but when played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.

It’s not just about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.

[Nitro]

And the icing on the cake is getting an extra hour's worth of sleep this morning! :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

These O.A. results were accomplished using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting only 4 out of 11 races (36%) still produced a hypothetical profit of $288 after betting $619 or a 47% Net profit margin. (A 4.7 ROI).
The Live final selections turned to be much more rewarding with hit rate of 64%.

Corrected:
Hitting only 4 out of 11 races (36%) still produced a hypothetical profit of $306 after betting $619 or a 49% Net profit margin. (A 4.9 ROI).