Hats Off to: the little guy

[FakeNameChanged]

the little guy's picks for Breeders Cup-Andy takin' names, kickin' butt.
Friday-4 races-Race 8: #3 won-$15.00 (1/4)
Saturday-9 races-Race 5: #11 won-$18.00
Race 6: #2 won- 9.80
Race 10: #12 won-19.40
Race 11: #5 won- 26.80
Race 12-Classic: #10 Arrogate won-5.40
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13 BC races- 6 won (46%win rate)- $94.40

[PaceAdvantage]

No surprise there... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Fox]

Damn. Nice work TLG. Wish I tailed.

[RunForTheRoses]

Nice, I got the email from nyra and wanted to check it out just didn't have time

[the little guy]

Thanks.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Andy knows when to make a stand and putting his money down!! Nice going TLG!

[PhantomOnTour]

That is pretty damned impressive
Nice job Andy

[sammy the sage]

Time for him to replace one of the 3 knuckleheads on NBC...and demand a raise!...nice job :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

The best in the business.

[Cratos]

the little guy's picks for Breeders Cup-Andy takin' names, kickin' butt.
Friday-4 races-Race 8: #3 won-$15.00 (1/4)
Saturday-9 races-Race 5: #11 won-$18.00
Race 6: #2 won- 9.80
Race 10: #12 won-19.40
Race 11: #5 won- 26.80
Race 12-Classic: #10 Arrogate won-5.40
-------------------------------------------------------
13 BC races- 6 won (46%win rate)- $94.40
No surprise here, I have followed Andy (TLG) since our time together on the old DRF Forum some 13 years ago.

When it comes to handicapping, he is probably one of the best on this forum.

[Poindexter]

Also not to be missed is that he had 3 of 6 on top in a $292,000 pick six and two of those 3 were the hard horses to come up with. The other 3 winners were 7/2, 7/2 and 9/2(1 favorite a second favorite and a co second favorite) I believe. Have to think he might have helped someone bring down the prize. Not to mention the late pick 3 cold which paid $369.40 for a buck. Impressive indeed.

[VeryOldMan]

Want to add my appreciation as well. His NYRA Bets video previews were really well done. A lot of analysis packed into a few minutes per race, and he's outstanding at explaining why and how he's trying to beat favorites.

True story - was heading to a friend's house to watch the Saturday races and have never done well on the Breeders Cup and thus am a reluctant handicapper/bettor re the BC. Decided that before I walked out the door, I'd put down small bets on Andy Serling's win picks and exacta box his top two to have rooting interests in every race. Wish I had bet more money!!

[DeoVolente]

What I appreciate about Andy on Talking Horses is his persistence to expose another handicapper. He will question any opinion that is not backed with substance. Recently, he exposed Anthony Stabile for not using pace or speed figures. How can someone not factor in speed or pace figures in modern day handicapping? Kudos to Andy, for demanding the best from those on the broadcast.

[the little guy]

Want to add my appreciation as well. His NYRA Bets video previews were really well done. A lot of analysis packed into a few minutes per race, and he's outstanding at explaining why and how he's trying to beat favorites.

True story - was heading to a friend's house to watch the Saturday races and have never done well on the Breeders Cup and thus am a reluctant handicapper/bettor re the BC. Decided that before I walked out the door, I'd put down small bets on Andy Serling's win picks and exacta box his top two to have rooting interests in every race. Wish I had bet more money!!


Just don't bet more next year when I go 0 for 13.

Law of averages.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nicely done TLG! We had a few of the same ones. I had Tamarkuz, Highland Reel, and Tourist but was gettin my head kicked in starting the 2 days 1 for 10 til later Saturday. Couldn't take Arrogate that low. Anyway sounds like we both had a nice BC. Cheers!

[the little guy]

Nicely done TLG! We had a few of the same ones. I had Tamarkuz, Highland Reel, and Tourist but was gettin my head kicked in starting the 2 days 1 for 10 til later Saturday. Couldn't take Arrogate that low. Anyway sounds like we both had a nice BC. Cheers!


Thanks....and nice job. I blew the Dirt Mile. It's the one race I look back on and feel like I could have done a better job. I pretty much decided Dortmund was just better than those horses and probably didn't take an objective enough look. The winner paid a more than fair price. Great job smoking him out.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thanks....and nice job. I blew the Dirt Mile. It's the one race I look back on and feel like I could have done a better job. I pretty much decided Dortmund was just better than those horses and probably didn't take an objective enough look. The winner paid a more than fair price. Great job smoking him out.

That's funny. I applied the same logic to Dortmund(losing to Chrome a few) and had him on the pedestal, as I did to Finest City losing to Beholder and Stellar Wind last out on dirt at 2 turns and I didn't have the balls to bet her! How were you thinking about Tourist? I definitely was not of utmost confidence on him and even though he lost to a few of the same last out I was blown away by the 2nd race back and clincher was a good race at SA. Anyway you doped out 6 winners. That is bigtime! I struggled on single races for most of the 2 days. I was getting blown out 4 deep on first legs of serial race bets to the point I just had to laugh! Sucked! So I wimped out on the Classic day late pick 4. Had the pick 3 to end the Distaff and Mile which saved me from suicide watch! Good, bad, and occasionally ugly, isn't this every BC?! Again nicely done.

[the little guy]

That's funny. I applied the same logic to Dortmund(losing to Chrome a few) and had him on the pedestal, as I did to Finest City losing to Beholder and Stellar Wind last out on dirt at 2 turns and I didn't have the balls to bet her! How were you thinking about Tourist? I definitely was not of utmost confidence on him and even though he lost to a few of the same last out I was blown away by the 2nd race back and clincher was a good race at SA. Anyway you doped out 6 winners. That is bigtime! I struggled on single races for most of the 2 days. I was getting blown out 4 deep on first legs of serial race bets to the point I just had to laugh! Sucked! So I wimped out on the Classic day late pick 4. Had the pick 3 to end the Distaff and Mile which saved me from suicide watch! Good, bad, and occasionally ugly, isn't this every BC?! Again nicely done.

Tourist was an easy pick for me....not saying because he won, or that I loved him, as I didn't, but he's the kind of horse I pick all the time, i.e. a horse that is close to the horse or horses ( in this case specifically Ironicus ) that I felt was/were the horse to beat, and a much better price. I was fairly confident Ironicus would be nowhere near his 8:1 ML, and thought Tourist would be 12:1 to 18:1. I'm pretty much always going to pick that horse, per se. It's a value play on a horse I can make a good case for. He ran very well at Keeneland, as he was three wide without cover for basically the entire trip, and I thought he would be better on the much firmer going. I also did not particularly like the Euros, specifically Alice Springs, who I honestly felt was, at best, a 15:1 shot.

At the end of the day, he got a GREAT ride, and was a somewhat fortunate winner. But, you have to get a little lucky sometimes....this just happened to be a particularly good time for that:-)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tourist was an easy pick for me....not saying because he won, or that I loved him, as I didn't, but he's the kind of horse I pick all the time, i.e. a horse that is close to the horse or horses ( in this case specifically Ironicus ) that I felt was/were the horse to beat, and a much better price. I was fairly confident Ironicus would be nowhere near his 8:1 ML, and thought Tourist would be 12:1 to 18:1. I'm pretty much always going to pick that horse, per se. It's a value play on a horse I can make a good case for. He ran very well at Keeneland, as he was three wide without cover for basically the entire trip, and I thought he would be better on the much firmer going. I also did not particularly like the Euros, specifically Alice Springs, who I honestly felt was, at best, a 15:1 shot.

At the end of the day, he got a GREAT ride, and was a somewhat fortunate winner. But, you have to get a little lucky sometimes....this just happened to be a particularly good time for that:-)

Absolutely. It took me a while to get that=with relative equals take the price. Just one thing I wanted to ask you about Ironicus. I have thought he was going to be a big star at some point and was salivating getting 6-1 on him in the Manhattan even against Flintshire! He did steady on the rail that day more than once and I will always believe he could have got that! But anyhow would just like to see him get more consecutive starts. His turn of foot is tremendous in most races. Gettin late. Cool to talk to you TLG. Can't wait til Gulfstream brother!

[classhandicapper]

I blew the Dirt Mile. It's the one race I look back on and feel like I could have done a better job. I pretty much decided Dortmund was just better than those horses and probably didn't take an objective enough look. The winner paid a more than fair price.

I felt the same exact way about my own thinking after the mile. I doubt it cost me much though. I would have had large exactas with Dortmund and only a small win bet on the winner. I passed instead.

[cj]

I felt the same exact way about my own thinking after the mile. I doubt it cost me much though. I would have had large exactas with Dortmund and only a small win bet on the winner. I passed instead.

I gnashed my teeth for a bit after the race because I did think the winner was going to run his best race. Still though, if you think Dortmund runs his race he should win. About the only think I didn't foresee that I probably should have seen was him chasing Runhappy through those fast fractions, which are faster than anything he has seen recently running at longer distances.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Great job Andy!

[classhandicapper]

I gnashed my teeth for a bit after the race because I did think the winner was going to run his best race. Still though, if you think Dortmund runs his race he should win. About the only think I didn't foresee that I probably should have seen was him chasing Runhappy through those fast fractions, which are faster than anything he has seen recently running at longer distances.

I made a comment on another thread about that pre race. Baffert was talking about going to the lead. I didn't take it seriously because I knew Runhappy was in the race. It didn't make sense to me to chase Runhappy since he didn't look sharp enough to have to worry about anyway. I figured he'd sit comfortably behind him and make his move when Runhappy collapsed on his own. If I knew he was serious about being aggressive, maybe I would given the race a closer look. I didn't lose anything because I didn't play, but that was quite an overlay on the winner all 3 of us watched. :bang:

[Valuist]

I had initially overlooked Finest City but when I saw the video Andy did for NYRA and went back and looked over the race again, I was sold. Great job on the BC.