Friday's Breeders' Cup races - LIVE THREAD

[PaceAdvantage]

Starting a thread to consolidate all the pre-race and post race comments on the Breeders' Cup races...first race is about 40 minutes away...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Mike thus far I have more cancelled wagers than actual wagers! How you doin?

[PaceAdvantage]

I've bet 9 horses to win and cashed once for $6.00. not a good start!

[PaceAdvantage]

And the first Breeders' Cup race brings me an insane six contenders...

OK, let the madness begin with my first value line:

:13: Oscar Performance 5/2
:6: Big Score 4/1
:11: Good Samaritan 10/1
:9: Wellabled 12/1
:4: Favorable Outcome 12/1
:1: Lancaster Bomber 15/1

[CincyHorseplayer]

Like the favorite :2: in GPW 9 but am loading up on the :7: !

[PaceAdvantage]

That's not a BC race... :bang: :lol:

[MNslappy]

Gotta put something on the baby Shackleford right?

Is he all lathered up and looks hot? That just means he's ready to roll.

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I look at this first BC race, the more I'm liking my top choice, Oscar Performance. The cutback to a mile and his ability to track what might be a fast pace puts him in a really nice spot IMO...6-1 on the board at the moment is golden...

[PaceAdvantage]

Gotta put something on the baby Shackleford right?

Is he all lathered up and looks hot? That just means he's ready to roll.At that price, I'll definitely have some money on him

[MNslappy]

The :12: won his first four races in England then had a horrific trip in his last. 35-1 right now.

[Tom]

:6: :13: :14:

[JustRalph]

Jug turf

:9: on the front at huge price

Edit after race

"Record pace" just what you want to hear when you pick a speed horse..... :bang:

Glad I can't bet

[Tee]

:13: Oscar Performance - should have enough speed from the outside post to find a good spot. If the pacesetter(s) falters this one could get first run.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm on :4: :6: :9: :13: here...wow four horses to start this thing... :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I look at this first BC race, the more I'm liking my top choice, Oscar Performance. The cutback to a mile and his ability to track what might be a fast pace puts him in a really nice spot IMO...6-1 on the board at the moment is golden...Loved this horse...can't believe I suck that bad that I bet three other horses in addition to him.... :lol: :lol: :lol:

Oh well, a profit is a profit

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's turn the page...

:3: Dortmund 3/2
:9: Gun Runner 6/1
:7: Runhappy 6/1

Something tells me I'm unlikely to have a value play in this race... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Record ($2 Win Bets On Overlays)
Wagered $8
Returned $15.20
P/L = + $7.20

[ebcorde]

Dirt and Turf. Not good for the Euros.
Be intersting to see how the Euro Jockeys adjust

[CincyHorseplayer]

Awesome. Why I am always tepid on BC Friday. Blown out of the pick 4 immediately! Had the exacta though.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Dirt and Turf. Not good for the Euros.
Be intersting to see how the Euro Jockeys adjust

I think they are loaded for the juvenile fillies turf.

[Tom]

The Mile

:3: :9: :8:

Tamarkuz steadily improving last three start after a layoff.
Marginally fit on figures, but could be worth a shot at 8-1 or better.

[AltonKelsey]

I think we have likely seen the biggest overlay of this BC. 6-1? Really?

Was there something about the Mott that made him twice as likely to win?

[PaceAdvantage]

6-1? Really?True that!

[PaceAdvantage]

Looks like Runhappy is my only hope for a play here...just dropped from 7 to 6-1...6-1 is my cutoff...

[098poi]

I will say Win on :1: and :8:. My account is at $0.25 so I won't wager. Maybe I will get bold and put some money in tomorrow!

[PaceAdvantage]

Turns out I'm on Runhappy...my only play here

[Robert Fischer]

.10 SPR :3: / :1: :7: :8: :9: / :1: :7: :8: :9: / :5:

.50 TRI :3: / :1: :8: :9: / :5:

1 EX :3: / :5:


I really like :5: Accelerate as an exotics add

[Tee]

Used the bookends in the exactas.

[MNslappy]

The Mile

:3: :9: :8:

Tamarkuz steadily improving last three start after a layoff.
Marginally fit on figures, but could be worth a shot at 8-1 or better.

Nice

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't see that one...Mike Smith though...go figure... :lol:

Thank God I only had one in that race...Runhappy...what was I thinking? :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Record ($2 Win Bets On Overlays)
Wagered $10
Returned $15.20
P/L = + $5.20

[Tom]

Serendipity, ba-bay! :jump: :jump: :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

The Mile

:3: :9: :8:

Tamarkuz steadily improving last three start after a layoff.
Marginally fit on figures, but could be worth a shot at 8-1 or better.11-1...nice...hope you didn't forget to bet him! :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Wheew alive on a $5 pick 3 baby! Got this exacta too! Yep Redboarding! But after going down in flames in the Juvy Turf don't care!

[Tom]

Bet and boxed.

[098poi]

I will say Win on :1: and :8:. My account is at $0.25 so I won't wager. Maybe I will get bold and put some money in tomorrow!

:8: Wins $25.80 :faint:

[PaceAdvantage]

:8: Wins $25.80 :faint:Wager or not, hold your head high! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[098poi]

Bet and boxed.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Dortmund sure came up empty.
.10 SPR :3: / :1: :7: :8: :9: / :1: :7: :8: :9: / :5:

.50 TRI :3: / :1: :8: :9: / :5:

1 EX :3: / :5:


I really like :5: Accelerate as an exotics add


.50c tri paid $533.80


I saved myself $4.50 by not using :8: :9: on top as well :blush:

[PaceAdvantage]

Second to last BC race for today up next:

:14: La Coronel 5/2
:3: New Money Honey 5/2
:2: Lull 8/1

[098poi]

Wager or not, hold your head high! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Thanks

[Tom]

Juvy Filly Turf

:3: :13: :2:

Better put the :11: in the mix here after second look.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Bet and boxed.

Nicely done Tom! :)

[ebcorde]

Tamrakuz was the best closer and the speed bias was right 9,3,7 and 5.

3,8,9 Threw in the 7 due to the speed bias.

now the last race 5,6,7,8 box

[Michael]

I'm late to the party. GJ Tom!

Juv Fillies Turf
:3: ftw gl everyone

[davew]

Dortmund sure came up empty.



.50c tri paid $533.80


I saved myself $4.50 by not using :8: :9: on top as well :blush: :5: was looking nice, but I wish Dortmund would have held for 3rd...

[Robert Fischer]

:3: :4: :7:

I like :3: here.

:4: looks like a great animal. Was a tiny bit curious because of the switch to Ritvo here. Reassuring to see same owner for Ritvo (D.Reeves) as Mucho Macho Man

:7: Draws better than Hydrangea, the filly she dueled in that long drive last time. Jumped right into stakes. I actually love that she adds a furlong here.

[NorCalGreg]

Second to last BC race for today up next:

:14: La Coronel 5/2
:3: New Money Honey 5/2
:2: Lull 8/1

See you got finally got that copy of PLATINUM, Mike....good man. Trying to figure out where Tom got TAMARKUZ though....he must have capped that one on his own :ThmbUp:

[azeri98]

The Mile

:3: :9: :8:

Tamarkuz steadily improving last three start after a layoff.
Marginally fit on figures, but could be worth a shot at 8-1 or better.
Nice Call :ThmbUp:

[Rex Phinney]

Taking a shot in the juvy fillies race with the :11: and lesser on the :10:

[098poi]

I'm gonna agree with PA and say Win on :3: and :14: but there are a lot of unknowns in this one so if I lose I won't feel bad.

[Tee]

:9: Cavale Doree

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll take it, although again, I ended up betting all three in this one

[098poi]

I'm gonna agree with PA and say Win on :3: and :14: but there are a lot of unknowns in this one so if I lose I won't feel bad.

:3: Wins $15.00 Yay!! I have to leave so no picks till tomorrow.
Good luck everyone.

[Tom]

Clearly, the single best investment this week was the Horseplayer Monthly FREE issue, page 4. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Michael]

Looks like we all crushed that one :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Record ($2 Win Bets On Overlays)
Wagered $16
Returned $30.20
P/L = + $14.20

[PaceAdvantage]

Last BC race for today...

:8: Beholder 8/5
:5: Stellar Wind 5/1
:3: Curalina 10/1

[Robert Fischer]

love :5: Stellar Wind here

[VigorsTheGrey]

From a gambling perspective, with Beholder and Stellar Wind both at 9/2, is the right play to dutch :5: and :8: ?

[ebcorde]

this track is too fast for them. Horse are whizzing by , The Euro horse is "huh?"
:lol:

They'll win the 1-1/2 that's it, The extra 1/4 will help. . I'm off Limato now. The Maintenance people better leave the track alone for tomorrow.

[Tom]

The Big One....

Songbird a tad behind the top two in this, but close.

Stella Wind, two moves in her last two starts, 5 points and 7 points.
Is she going to be able make a third, because....

Beholder made a 7 point move, but her fist move in while, first this year.
Has she got another in her?

I'm A Chatterbox, one floor below the penthouse along with Songbird, made a 7 point move three bac, then regressed a bit before circling back to that top. One of my favorite patterns. I think she move ahead by a few today, and if the other three maintain or regress at all, she could get her picture taken, or at least break up the easy tri.

:8: :7: :5: :3:

[Michael]

Made a plan last night and I'm sticking to it.

Distaff
:7:

I'm ahead on the few plays I set up yesterday. GL all :)

[Robert Fischer]

From a gambling perspective, with Beholder and Stellar Wind both at 9/2, is the right play to dutch :5: and :8: ?

:ThmbUp: if they stay up near 4-1 , and if you like both equally, and dislike Songbird, yes...


even crazier --> if you have a strong non-chrome opinion in the classic, Songbird can be dutched as well using the Distaff/Classic DD (eg 7-1 Songbird/Arrogate DBL)


Stellar Wind for me

WIN :5:

1EX :5: / :6:

.50TRI :5: :7: :8: / :5: :7: :8: / :6:

[NorCalGreg]

Let me try a late-comer over the favorites

#3 CURALINA - #6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED W / 1,5,8 exacta

[PaceAdvantage]

Looks like Beholder and Curalina will be my final two plays of the day

[Tom]

From a fan's perspective, I gotta root for Songbird and a future great one in the making that we will have for another year or two.

And Lady Eli for a terrific comeback.

Bit I will certainly take the money if they get beat! :blush: :D

[EMD4ME]

Let's nail em in the lane Forever Unbridled. !!!

[Robert Fischer]

wow :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[MNslappy]

Oh my god what happened at the start?

[Tom]

CLOSE!!!!

[Alwaysonpoint36]

looked like beholder

[EMD4ME]

Nice race!!!

[Tom]

Who says you can't win on those old jocks! :jump:

Great race, did not disappoint.
The Queen goes out on top.

Reminded me a lot of Zenyatta's last race.....only better.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll take it

But it sure looked on every video replay that Songbird won...should be an interesting photo

[Robert Fischer]

crazy first day...

Dortmund the lock, folded

Songbird the toss, ran big


Looks like Beholder and Curalina will be my final two plays of the day


well done

[PaceAdvantage]

Damn, every isolated replay looks like Songbird had her nose down...wire must be after the mirror... :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Damn, every isolated replay looks like Songbird had her nose down...wire must be after the mirror... :lol:

Now you're coming around, FINALLY :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

If you had a gun to my head after watching every replay, I'd say Songbird won and now I'd be dead.

But instead I cash... :lol:

[pandy]

I said coming in that this was one of the best races I've ever seen carded for fillies and mares and it certainly lived up to that expectation, even with Stellar Wind breaking slow.

[PaceAdvantage]

BC 2016 Record ($2 Win Bets On Overlays)

Wagered $20
Returned $38.80
P/L = + $18.80

I'll take it... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Hope ya'll had fun...let's do this again tomorrow. :ThmbUp:

[Michael]

Dortmund the lock, folded



That race was such an anomaly. So many things had to happen for that
outcome. Still in shock!

[Tom]

Great day of racing to start off the weekend.

One race for the ages.
I hope Songbird comes back and dominates next year, to ice this race's place in history.

[Tom]

That race was such an anomaly. So many things had to happen for that
outcome. Still in shock!

Steve Byk suggested Dortmund would not run his best chasing this morning.

[pandy]

Great day of racing to start off the weekend.

One race for the ages.
I hope Songbird comes back and dominates next year, to ice this race's place in history.


Hopefully Stellar Wind is okay and she can give Songbird some competition in some races next year.

[no breathalyzer]

:lol: maybe i was over confident or feeling the beers but watching live i had no doubt Beholder won... i got worried for no reason

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Big day for me. I posted picks on my web site. My top choices were 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and I had the exacta cold in the 8th and 9th. That is by far the best I've done on a BC Friday.

[AltonKelsey]

Big day for me. I posted picks on my web site. My top choices were 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and I had the exacta cold in the 8th and 9th. That is by far the best I've done on a BC Friday.

Not bad. Picking Coasted for second might have been the most impressive of the selections.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Not bad. Picking Coasted for second might have been the most impressive of the selections.
I had two advantages. For a number of years I was the designated handicapper for the Juvenile Fillies Turf for Horseplayer Magazine. I have a good sense of the preps, especially the Euro preps. Plus I post selections for BEL daily and I had a good perspective on Coasted's race in the Miss Grillo. But thank you.