Tis The Season

[Blackgold]

I remember reading where Beyer usually takes some handicapping time off between the Belmont and the opening of Saratoga and Del Mar.

I think it's because he found this time of year to be less formful and thus handicapping results less profitable.

Over the years, that has certainly been my experience.

It was about this time last year when Pizzolla took some time off and went to a resort because. . "he'd look at the board and wonder if he had bet the right track."

From the looks of some of the recent topics on this board, I wonder if others aren't finding it difficult.

Some of the recent topics are "goodbye cruel world", "found a new way to lose", "why I'm losing interest in racing", etc.

What is it with this time of year?

Often I look at many, many cards and find only a couple of races I'm willing to play and even in those something strange happens. Did you see HOL-7th yesterday, the opening leg of the $400K guaranteed P4 where that 50-1 shot with a losing trainer/owner skimmed the rail in the stretch?

Personally I'm just treading water and worse and look forward to Wed.'s opening of Del Mar.

[Tuffmug]

This time of year has always been difficult. Belmont and Hollywood seem to be putting out what I call "Remnant" cards, cards filled with horses not good enough to go to Saratoga or Delmar who have been running all winter. The trainers seem to be saving all their best stock for the big meets coming up.

Then, when Saratoga and Delmar start, there is an explosion of quality cards but they are filled with quality horses coming off layoffs or well bred and trained firsters which make handicapping a real test.

I usually let a few weeks go by to let things settle out.

[Valuist]

I think the heat is partly responsible. July is the hottest month and most horses don't like it. I've always thought the 4 toughest months to play were July-August, and January-February.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Then you would think this is the time to specialize in, when the heavyweight competition is off on vacation, both horses and handicappers. That includes the first couple weeks of a meet. "Formful" to me means everybody else has the same horses you picked, so that's a minus in that respect.

I agree with the temperature concept, though they are running all kinds of afternoon meets out in the desert this time of year. Saratoga usually is not the coolest spot in August, either. I think it may be more on how acclimated certain horses can be.

What of Siracoque in the 7th at HOL? Plenty of need-to-lead horses in the race, assuring a hot pace. They had all failed at distances over 6.5f except St. Kilda, who was just graduating from MCl. The closers in these situations have been getting up often enough recently at HOL. Two closers in that race, the other (the 5) was pretty washy. "Losing trainer" Canelo (you may be right in his lifetime record, I don't know) was 1 for 7 going into the race -- 14% is pretty good IMO. Now it's 25%. Sartinistas should have loved that race.

[Tuffmug]

7th in Hollywood was a classic lesson in handicapping. Study it closely with an open mind and it will reward you big time.