Tournaments/everyday betting

[Valuist]

I'm convinced that for most of us, these are completely different animals. As much as I enjoy doing the pen and paperwork aspect of everyday handicapping, I'm beginning to think that software is the way to go for tournaments.

I just got back from the Gold Coast, and the format was 15 win/place bets a day for 3 days. I found it difficult to come up with 15 horses in a day worth betting. To me, win bets make up maybe 20-25% of my wagers. I love the exotics, but these are useless in tournaments. I talked to two of the guys who finished in the top 20, and one of them never bets anything except to win. The other guy says its around 50/50. There was a few big names there, and I don't think they finished in the top 50, let alone top 100.

I've been betting horses for over 20 years but only been playing in tournaments for the past year or so. I'm curious to hear from anyone who's won or had a near win in any tournament to hear if they alter their strategy for tournaments.

[The Skeptic]

I'm a computer handicapper. I'm an experienced tournament player. It may seem as though computers are the way to go but in all honesty I'm a better handicapper pen and paper. Look at R Nielson, The Maven, The Gallo's, etc etc (many more examples). I could go and on but I won't. For every Computer handicapper that's won a tournament I've seen 5 pen and paper handicappers win tournaments. Sure those pen and paper guys may have the Sheets, other items to supplement there handicapping including but not ltd to partners - but they're fine handicappers. I've debated tossing my computer back to the basics where "I think" the new frontier in handicapping may be. Imagine the headline "THE BASICS" Handicappings New Frontier!

You probably saw many computers at the tournament as one of the vendors was holding a seminar there. Just like we see the same names pop up all the time at various tournaments it's because they play in more. Just like you may have seen succesful computer handicappers at this weekends tournament it's because there were more of them.

[Valuist]

Skeptic-

The Maven is definitely an accomplished tournament player. He just won the Belmont NYRA tourney and he won the North Aurora NTRA tourney last year. I think he's won one or two of the biggies. I know he's not a software guy.

I would NEVER abandon pen and paper for regular everyday handicapping. But when there's 6 tracks to go thru and you need to come up with 15 plays a day, then I think it could definitely be an advantage. Normally I'll play 2, and no more than 3 tracks in a day.

Speaking of the Sheets, Friedman had a couple entries in the tourney. I didn't see where he finished but I don't think he made the top 50.

Skeptic- are you going to be in the Arlington NTRA tourney in September?

[blind squirrel]

i've never won a tournament,but i finished
8th at KEENELAND{400 entries} and 12th at TURFWAY.

STRATEGY FOR TOURNAMENTS?

#1 multiple entries,all the players mentioned
that do well in tourneys consistently play
2-3 entries.

#2 JOE HINSON one of the all time great
tornament players never considers a horse
less than 8-1.

#3 seperate yourself from the crowd.in a
contest recently CARL NAFGER won with
a first time starer,he was 0 for 40 with
first time starters....somebody had this
horse at $80....now how many among
us would have used this as a contest
horse?

[Valuist]

Yeah it seems quite a few players use mulitple entries. I wish there was a limit of one per player (there will be in the Horse Player World Series) but they aren't going to turn away money.
8-1 seems awfully high for a minimum acceptable price; maybe it works for him. I know I'd have a lot of trouble finding 15 horses each day at over 8-1 that were worthy of using as tournament selections.

I think the NTRA tourneys should award a little more prize money. Most pay to around 5th place and thats it. What I like about the Coast Casinos tournaments is they pay down fairly far. I just missed getting the top 50 last year at the Gold Coast and I heard the Orleans pays down to 80th place. But those tourneys also are on the crowded side; 723 entries at the Gold Coast last weekend.

[blind squirrel]

yeah i used to whine a little about multiple entries.
wouldn't a golfer in the BRITISH OPEN like to hit
three shots and take the best shot on his score
card?....organizers love multiple entries,the money
is astronomical.

sometimes you have to bet your 5th selection in
a race,for those of us who bet "real money" that's
tough!

[Valuist]

Jerry Brown had some interesting comments on the T-Graph board re: contests, saying that "handicapping contests with big fields are short term events that place premiums on only playing longshots and playing entirely differently than you would if you were playing day to day."

I would have to agree.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Absoutely agree! The total yearly ROI, or $2 flat be profit or loss on one's tournament selections mean absolutely nothing! Not even worth knowing! All that matters is being on a hot streak during the span of the tournament. That involves a mix good bets/selections, lonshots(even if underlaid, legitimate or not) and lucky bets/selections.

I'm still looking fot the right combinations in tournaments, but feel I'm getting better at them the more I enter.

[GR1@HTR]

Looks like Jerry Brown is creating an excuse as for why his users do not have a history of success at Tourneys. FWIW, his competitor Len Friedman has been very successful using the original Sheet.

[Valuist]

Steve-

Were you the "Steve" that Scott McMannus was talking to in the Hawthorne Handicapping Center during their NTRA tourney back in April? As for the tourneys, I agree on the hot streak part but it does seem like the same people keep on winning. Maybe they're entering more and using multiple entries; maybe they have a solid strategy.

Friedman did win one of the big events a couple years ago although he was out of the money this past weekend.

[Lance]

"Jerry Brown had some interesting comments on the T-Graph board re: contests, saying that "handicapping contests with big fields are short term events that place premiums on only playing longshots and playing entirely differently than you would if you were playing day to day."

That comment of Brown's is the most self-serving comment in the history of handicapping. Len Friedman has won hundreds of thousands of dollars in handicapping contests. Brown is simply trying to minimize Friedman's accomplishments. It is pathetic on Brown's part. My God, a few months ago at the DRF Expo, there was a handicapping contest at the end. Brown got on a plane and got the hell out of Vegas rather than face Friedman in the contest. Friedman finished fourth. Then Brown gets on his board and starts running off his mouth about some BS homemade contest to try to take attention off the fact that he slipped out of town rather than face Friedman in a real contest. Want a big sample? Tabulate the results on the picks Brown posts in his Red Board Room. You'll have to do the math yourself. There's a reason why Brown won't. His latest stunt is the single most pathetic thing I've seen in 25 years of handicapping.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Originally posted by Valuist
Steve-

Were you the "Steve" that Scott McMannis was talking to in the Hawthorne Handicapping Center during their NTRA tourney back in April?

Most likely (although Steve Walker, the 1st NTRA National Champ was also there periodically too).

I'm Steve Miller, very tall, rather large, salt-pepper hair, glasses, and set up my laptop along the wall. The whole gane knows me there. Say Hi sometime if you see me there! I'd love to meet you and anyone else from the board!

Scott, his wife Wendy and I are very good friends, and I join them as often as I can at AP & HAW. He has the Handicapping Center at HAW open on the weekends for AP during the HAW's Live Harness meet, as they have a weekly Saturday contest on AP's races, followed by a weekly contest on the HAW Harnies Sat. night.

[hurrikane]

I am sure you see 5 pen and paper guys win for every one computer guy. There are probably 100 pen and paper guys for every computer user in the coast tourneys.

The guy who won the orleans in Oct used nothing. he said he just looked at the horses and bet. He also never finished in the money before so go figure.

I can't imagine looking at 6 to 8 tracks for 3 days and not useing a computer. It's grueling with a computer. I would probably be blind and have ink poisoning by the end if I did the old form.

But to each his own..great thing about this game.

I believe 10 guy from HTR qualified for the million at the Gold Coast with one coming 3rd.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
I can't imagine looking at 6 to 8 tracks for 3 days and not useing a computer. It's grueling with a computer. I would probably be blind and have ink poisoning by the end if I did the old form.

11 on Friday, 14 on Saturday, and 13 on Sunday. No computers, just forms or programs. I visited the seminar on Wed. for a couple of hours and believe me, I think all you guys are nuts.

"But to each his own..great thing about this game."

[Zaf]

There are a lot of players who only seek longshots. Seems like everyone I played in was won by the guys who caught the cap horses.

ZAFONIC

[OTM Al]

The analogy between contests and betting with your own roll reminds me of a discussion I had once with a friend of mine from India about the similarities and differences between baseball and cricket. Both games have the same roots and ar played with bats and balls, have innings, and whoever scores the most runs wins. It was the strategies that made the games so distinct we decided, and being good economists, we relized that those strategies were a result of the different rules. Cricket, we decided, was, for the offense, a much more defensive game than baseball. Making an out was very bad and individual runs just usually didn't count so much. Baseball is the opposite. Very aggressively offensive.

The analogy is that betting with one's own roll is much like cricket. One picks and chooses very carefully when to trying to score. In contests, it seems the best way to go is to swing away and go for the fences. The rules of both games, though they have the same roots and have many similarities, are different, and should be treated so with different optimal strategies.

[Larry Hamilton]

well said OTM Al. I saved your entire post on my site and gave you credit. Hope you dont mind

[OTM Al]

Not at all :)

[Larry Hamilton]

This is a subject about which it is important to know the difference. If you take your "tournament" mindset to the races to bet on your every day bets--you will probably get killed.

I know my place. I can make a good living grinding out favorites--for and against. That same mind set will almost never win a tournment.

[BMeadow]

Tournament play and regular play are completely different. One is a short-term event which requires you to dial up longshots whether they are good bets or not, while the other requires you to uncover overlays. In a tournament, a 19-1 shot who should be 35-1 is a much better bet than a 7-5 shot who should be 1-1. Exactly the opposite is true in daily play.

The same holds true, incidentally, for blackjack tournaments, which have nothing to do with whether somebody is a skilled blackjack player. In a tournament, a player might have to double a 13, or split 2's against a 10, to win his table. Both plays would be exceptionally dumb in daily professional play.

In tournaments, it helps to (a) play a lot of them, which increases your chances of doing well in at least one (b) use multiple entries, which also increases your chances that one of them might win and (c) understand tournament strategies and go for bombs instead of 2-1 shots.

[DonnieN]

Catching the Cap Horse in the tournament is what is vital to win one. But as anyone who has bought multiple entries will tell you, the REAL trick is getting your winners on one ticket. I, personally, have bought multiple tickets, and as one starts to out-pace the other, I tend to ignore the fading ticket. IMHO, pyschology is rather important in tournament play. I think many a multiple player actually does himself more damage by trying to salvage that losing ticket, thus hurting the other ticket. I think it becomes a distraction.

Yes, I use a computer. Yes, it does help me make better decisions, especially when there are scratches involved. But you see the frustration as player after player swings and misses at the longhorse. The math alone, if you take the time to do it, will show you that cap horses are madatory. I did not say optional. I said mandatory. With out them you will not win. I don't think I could find the opportunities for the Cap Horse without my computer anymore. I am a slave to my system.

The top one day ticket, which I am told was a tournament high for the Gold Coast, was 19,366 points with $200 win/place bets. 15 choices at win/place. 30 total "cashing opportunities". We all thought the 16,000+ points earned on the first day was outstanding!! Think either of those numbers were accomplished with 9/2 shots?

It was exciting and fun. But there is no comparison....tournament play vs daily play.....apples vs mangos.

BOL all!

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Valuist
Skeptic-

The Maven is definitely an accomplished tournament player. He just won the Belmont NYRA tourney and he won the North Aurora NTRA tourney last year. I think he's won one or two of the biggies. I know he's not a software guy.



We happen to be at the same table for the two day tournament.

I would judge that he was a fortunate longshot player.

Joe M

[Valuist]

At what point is it luck and at what point is it skill? Guys can get lucky once. He's qualified for that NTRA tourney 4 years in a row. I guess the NYers were none too happy an out of towner took first.

[OTM Al]

Was just looking over the final results of the Belmont Hadicapping challenge and I noticed, tied for dead last with 0 points was Jerry Bossert. Could this possibly be the same individual who writes the handicapping column in the Daily News and does picks from time to time on the NYRA circuit???? Ouch. Personally I usually don't like his picks, but he isn't the worst tout in the Daily News.