BC- Most likely, Best Bet, Toss, Longshot

[Mc990]

Most Likely- Dortmund. He lays over this field on numbers. I like Gun Runner's form coming in but the outside post has to hurt. His best shot to win IMO was to save ground. Runhappy is off form and at a distance where he's probably not at his best. Even on his game, he'd be hard pressed to beat Dortmund. Vyjack is interesting to clunk up with a 1W trip.

Best Bet- Sea Calisi. Somewhat lightly raced this year seemingly with this race in mind. Just pairing her last few with the prospective trip should make her very tough. The euros don't scare me here as much as other spots.

Toss- Songbird, Tepin, Found. I couldn't resist including 2 extra... Any self-respecting bettor must toss Songbird. Fandom aside, it's always a game of percentages and the numbers just don't add up for her.

I'm willing to gamble that my latter 2 tosses are over the top. Hats off if they beat me. There are plenty of viable alternatives in the Turf and Mile.

Longshot- Effinex. I think there is a real possibility that the top 3 betting choices could run off races. Arrogate has to bounce... The question is how much. With plenty of rest, it could be mitigated somewhat. Still, at 3-1, I can't play him on top.

Chrome is in a precarious post and it will be interesting to see what Espinoza decides to do with the 2 speeds outside of him. Chrome's preferred running style has been on the lead or 3 wide-give up 5 lengths in ground loss...

Frosted might be cooked after that tremendous Met Mile performance. Considering this plus the ship, I can't back him.

That brings me to Effinex. He has the numbers to be competitive if the others bring even their "B+" game. I love the switch to Prat and if he can get the horse to relax, he might be sitting in a good spot turning for home. Shipped earlier this year and proved he can run his race at SA. To me, he is an absolute overlay.

On a side note, it seems there are more quality Euros coming for the turf sprint than in years past. Cut back milers tend to do well down the hill... Have they figured it out? I think so. I can't play any of the Americans in that race.

[ebcorde]

It's the BREEDERS CUP so consider the breeding potential


Mile I like Limato


Mongolian Saturday could be a repeat winner (He;s following the same script from last year Prepped in the Woodford)



Upset Mondaliste Arlington Million winner very high BRIS rating

[ebcorde]

Most Likely- Dortmund. He lays over this field on numbers. I like Gun Runner's form coming in but the outside post has to hurt. His best shot to win IMO was to save ground. Runhappy is off form and at a distance where he's probably not at his best. Even on his game, he'd be hard pressed to beat Dortmund. Vyjack is interesting to clunk up with a 1W trip.

Best Bet- Sea Calisi. Somewhat lightly raced this year seemingly with this race in mind. Just pairing her last few with the prospective trip should make her very tough. The euros don't scare me here as much as other spots.

Toss- Songbird, Tepin, Found. I couldn't resist including 2 extra... Any self-respecting bettor must toss Songbird. Fandom aside, it's always a game of percentages and the numbers just don't add up for her.

I'm willing to gamble that my latter 2 tosses are over the top. Hats off if they beat me. There are plenty of viable alternatives in the Turf and Mile.

Longshot- Effinex. I think there is a real possibility that the top 3 betting choices could run off races. Arrogate has to bounce... The question is how much. With plenty of rest, it could be mitigated somewhat. Still, at 3-1, I can't play him on top.

Chrome is in a precarious post and it will be interesting to see what Espinoza decides to do with the 2 speeds outside of him. Chrome's preferred running style has been on the lead or 3 wide-give up 5 lengths in ground loss...

Frosted might be cooked after that tremendous Met Mile performance. Considering this plus the ship, I can't back him.

That brings me to Effinex. He has the numbers to be competitive if the others bring even their "B+" game. I love the switch to Prat and if he can get the horse to relax, he might be sitting in a good spot turning for home. Shipped earlier this year and proved he can run his race at SA. To me, he is an absolute overlay.

On a side note, it seems there are more quality Euros coming for the turf sprint than in years past. Cut back milers tend to do well down the hill... Have they figured it out? I think so. I can't play any of the Americans in that race.

Chrome breaks from the gate and after a few jumps any precarious Post Position is negated.

Arrogate only 5 starts
Effinex? I will applaud you if he wins, Horse is too inconsistent for me

I would not rule out California going 1-2-3-4 in the classic


hold it.. Toss Found? his itm% on turf is pretty good 6-11-2 in 19 starts

[PhantomOnTour]

Most Likely: California Chrome in the Classic
Best Bet: Paulassilverlining in the Filly Sprint
Toss: Masochistic in the Sprint
Longshot: Ulysses in the Turf and Queen's Trust in the Filly Turf

[no breathalyzer]

Chrome locko


Dortmund best play against

[SuperPickle]

It's the BREEDERS CUP so consider the breeding potential


Mile I like Limato


Mongolian Saturday could be a repeat winner (He;s following the same script from last year Prepped in the Woodford)



Upset Mondaliste Arlington Million winner very high BRIS rating

Mondaliste not going in the mile and instead opting to race against the Arc winner and two Arc runner ups is possibly the worst decision by an owner since In Excess went in the turf mile instead of the Classic.

Figures aside he wants not part of 12 furlongs let alone 12 furlongs against the best turf horses on earth.

[Rise Over Run]

There is no way La Coronel loses the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She's too good for these regardless of the 14 post.

[airford1]

Funny stuff

[Mc990]

Funny stuff

Do you have anything to contribute or should we just expect some reboarding after the weekend?

[Mc990]

Chrome breaks from the gate and after a few jumps any precarious Post Position is negated.

Arrogate only 5 starts
Effinex? I will applaud you if he wins, Horse is too inconsistent for me

I would not rule out California going 1-2-3-4 in the classic


hold it.. Toss Found? his itm% on turf is pretty good 6-11-2 in 19 starts

Found is obviously a great horse. I just feel there is too much pointing against her at this point to take her at probably less than half the price she was last year. She took to the boggy turf course at Keeneland... Different ballgame on Saturday.

[jahura2]

Most Likely- Dortmund. He lays over this field on numbers. I like Gun Runner's form coming in but the outside post has to hurt. His best shot to win IMO was to save ground. Runhappy is off form and at a distance where he's probably not at his best. Even on his game, he'd be hard pressed to beat Dortmund. Vyjack is interesting to clunk up with a 1W trip.

Best Bet- Sea Calisi. Somewhat lightly raced this year seemingly with this race in mind. Just pairing her last few with the prospective trip should make her very tough. The euros don't scare me here as much as other spots.

Toss- Songbird, Tepin, Found. I couldn't resist including 2 extra... Any self-respecting bettor must toss Songbird. Fandom aside, it's always a game of percentages and the numbers just don't add up for her.

I'm willing to gamble that my latter 2 tosses are over the top. Hats off if they beat me. There are plenty of viable alternatives in the Turf and Mile.

Longshot- Effinex. I think there is a real possibility that the top 3 betting choices could run off races. Arrogate has to bounce... The question is how much. With plenty of rest, it could be mitigated somewhat. Still, at 3-1, I can't play him on top.

Chrome is in a precarious post and it will be interesting to see what Espinoza decides to do with the 2 speeds outside of him. Chrome's preferred running style has been on the lead or 3 wide-give up 5 lengths in ground loss...

Frosted might be cooked after that tremendous Met Mile performance. Considering this plus the ship, I can't back him.

That brings me to Effinex. He has the numbers to be competitive if the others bring even their "B+" game. I love the switch to Prat and if he can get the horse to relax, he might be sitting in a good spot turning for home. Shipped earlier this year and proved he can run his race at SA. To me, he is an absolute overlay.

On a side note, it seems there are more quality Euros coming for the turf sprint than in years past. Cut back milers tend to do well down the hill... Have they figured it out? I think so. I can't play any of the Americans in that race.


Most Likely- Chrome-Classic
Best Bet-Stellar Wind-Distaff
Toss-Songbird-Distaff
Lonhshot- Celestine BC Trf Sprint


Plays I really like but not too much of a longshot- Seventh Heaven,Queens Trust over Ladi El -BC Filly/Mare Turf
American Gal-BC Juvenile Fillies

[airford1]

Do you have anything to contribute or should we just expect some reboarding after the weekend?
Not at all. to say Dortmund is a BEST play against strikes me as foolish thought

[lamboguy]

LOOKING AT LEE is probably going to be my only decent win bet for the 2 days.

this is a great Breeders Cup with all this talent in it. picking the European Turf horses will be a challenge.

[airford1]

There is no way La Coronel loses the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She's too good for these regardless of the 14 post.
Think about the trip you have to have to win from post 14. These are all VERY good horses.

[Mc990]

Not at all. to say Dortmund is a BEST play against strikes me as foolish thought

Agree. I can't find one knock on Dortmund in this spot.

[airford1]

Most Likely- Chrome-Classic
Best Bet-Stellar Wind-Distaff
Toss-Songbird-Distaff
Lonhshot- Celestine BC Trf Sprint


Plays I really like but not too much of a longshot- Seventh Heaven,Queens Trust over Ladi El -BC Filly/Mare Turf
American Gal-BC Juvenile Fillies
Toss Songbird? ok this just strike me as funny. I wouldn't lol if you said toss Beholder from her last two races.

[airford1]

Agree. I can't find one knock on Dortmund in this spot.
I've been playing since 1972 with limited success and sometimes we over think the better races. Keep it simple Best older against best younger. Cashed a lot of tickets that way. Oh ya and some races you just can't bet.

[jahura2]

Toss Songbird? ok this just strike me as funny. I wouldn't lol if you said toss Beholder from her last two races.

My thinking comes strictly from a value standpoint. She will be the chalk against 2 very high quality older mares a group she has yet to face. If she beats me, my hat is off to her, I just wont be playing her at the short price she will be offering.

[linrom1]

Agree. I can't find one knock on Dortmund in this spot.


First, GUNRUNNER is not a miler! This horse likes to go long, that's why connections were thinking about entering him in the classic. This horse has zero chance of finishing in the top two slots--TOO SLOW.

RUNHAPPY is a total disaster. The horse was injured and was recuperating for almost a year. The trainer ran a total of three races this year and is totally outclassed by her peers. Can she get a horse ready off a very long lay off? I know, he is supposed to wire the field. :lol:

The works on this horse are all suspect. He worked at 5am in pitch dark and then galloped once? The owner of this horse is shopping for a horse to enter in the PEGASUS, a route.

VYIJACK, six year old in horrible form who has not won a dirt race in two years is supposed to take on a second best older horse in US? If they ran in a turf mile at DMR in some minor stake race, he would have a chance.

[JayTris07]

Most Likely- Limato-- Turf Mile
Best Bet- A.P.Indian--Sprint
Toss- Songbird-- Distaff
Lonhshot- Cavale Doree-- Juvenile Fillies Turf


:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

[Redboard]

As far as the Friday’s Pick 4, I’m going with Obrien’s two entries in the Juvy Turf. The guy has won three of the last five, I believe. In the Dirt mile- Runhappy, Vyjack, Texas Chrome & Gunrunner. In the Juvy Filly Turf, I’m going 10 deep, hoping to catch a value play. In the Distaff, I single Stellar Wind.

[The Biscuit]

It's the BREEDERS CUP so consider the breeding potential


Mile I like Limato


Mongolian Saturday could be a repeat winner (He;s following the same script from last year Prepped in the Woodford)



Upset Mondaliste Arlington Million winner very high BRIS rating

Limato ...nice under the radar horse ..

[linrom1]

Limato ...nice under the radar horse ..

The most touted horse in the mile is the most under radar?

[no breathalyzer]

Not at all. to say Dortmund is a BEST play against strikes me as foolish thought
:lol: figured that comment was for me

[CincyHorseplayer]

Most Likely- JS Choice-Juv Turf

Best Bet- Ryan's Charm-FM Turf

Toss- California Chrome

Longshot- Dortmund

[SuperPickle]

The most touted horse in the mile is the most under radar?

Exactly. He's favored in overseas betting. He'll probably be the Mile in every pool but Santa Anita. The Tepin money will trump him but he could be a clear second choice.

He's far from under the radar.

[caper]

Toss- Songbird, Tepin, Found. I couldn't resist including 2 extra... Any self-respecting bettor must toss Songbird. Fandom aside, it's always a game of percentages and the numbers just don't add up for her.



Can you expand on that a bit? I don't follow thoroughbreds as much. She has won all her starts, seems to be by a great sire and has already won a BC. She seems to have an excellent shot, no?

[depalma113]

FRIDAY

BEST BET
Juvenile Turf Fillies
:11: Rymska - Second start in the states, first time lasix, gets hard turf, longer of the Chad Brown entries

LONGSHOT A
Juvenile Colts
:3: Channel Maker - Don't know if he can win, but he is fast enough to hit the board. He was rank throughout his last and still was with 3 lengths of this race's favorite.

LONGSHOT B
Distaff
:4: Corona Del Inca - The most interesting horse in the race. She carried 133lbs going a mile and a quarter and closed the final quarter going :24.16 to finish in 1:59.40. The works at Santa Anita have been good. We know she can get the distance and she gets a weight break.

If she sneaks into the trifecta we get lots of money. If she upsets the whole enchilata, we drink Corona for life.

[Mc990]

Limato ...nice under the radar horse ..

I'd be very careful with Mongolian Saturday... I keyed him last year but the circumstances are quite different. 6.5 down the hill a far cry from a true turf sprint at Keeneland.

He also figures to be shorter than the 20-1 he was last BC.

Good luck this weekend.

[Mc990]

Can you expand on that a bit? I don't follow thoroughbreds as much. She has won all her starts, seems to be by a great sire and has already won a BC. She seems to have an excellent shot, no?

While I think Songbird can certainly win, it comes down to a percentage play for me. I could make the argument she's the 5th most likely winner and yet she is going to go favored. Probably 9/5 or less. I will bet against will both fists every time in a scenario like this.

When I look at tosses, they are strictly the horses that I believe will be most overbet relative to their actual chances.

IMO horseplayers should relish the opportunities races like this present. There are probably only a handful each year.

[delsully]

Most Likely- Dortmund
Best Bet- Ironicus
Toss- Runhappy
Longshot- Irish Jasper

[MutuelClerk]

Most Likely- Good Samaritan. My Best bet.

Toss- Lady Eli

Longshot-Cavale Doree

[Robert Fischer]

most likely - Dortmund
best bet - Arrogate
Toss - Songbird
Longshot - Intelligence Cross

[overthehill]

I thiink the most likely outcomes are exacta box of stellar wind beholder and curalina in the distaff and exacta box of chrome and arrogate in classic.

[Robert Fischer]

most likely - Dortmund


don't quote me on that

[no breathalyzer]

Chrome locko


Dortmund best play against


:) dosn't seem foolish now does it

[NorCalGreg]

:) dosn't seem foolish now does it

Hell no :lol: ....that knucklehead hasn't posted a pick yet

[no breathalyzer]

what a race just now wow! hope Beholder got it

[airford1]

Agree. I can't find one knock on Dortmund in this spot.
we can now.

[airford1]

:) dosn't seem foolish now does it
Nope, but did you cash? I watched.

[airford1]

Hell no :lol: ....that knucklehead hasn't posted a pick yet
thanks, but can we still be friends?

[no breathalyzer]

Nope, but did you cash? I watched.

honestly i didn't i bet gunrunner who i thought moved to earily .. since you asking about who i cashed on i had Beholder Large tho :cool:

[classhandicapper]

honestly i didn't i bet gunrunner who i thought moved to earily .. since you asking about who i cashed on i had Beholder Large tho :cool:

I agree. That race kind of fell apart.

[fiznow]

My longshots for today:

Juvenile Fillies #2 With Honors (10-1)
F+M Turf #6 Zipessa (20-1)
Turf Sprint #8 Washington DC (8-1)
Cassic #1 Effinex (15-1)

Best bets:

These longshots plus
Turf #10 Found (3-1)
Mile #2 Alice Springs (4-1)

Good luck everybody! :cool: