HONG KONG / SHA TIN - WED 11/2

[Nitro]

Good morning everyone!

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 8 races on the All Weather Dirt. That’s the oddity! I’m not sure what the occasion is, but this is the first time in the 3 years that I’ve been playing HK that the entire card is on the dirt.

In the last 12 race days at HK there have been only 5 races out of 109 that have been run on the dirt and my early picks have only hit 2 of them. So I’m going to be a bit more selective and scrutinize the “Live” tote action much more this morning especially for the bigger bets.

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED. EST

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Good Luck if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting any live selections at Hong Kong this morning.

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns.
There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #4

R#1 -1200M (6F) Awd….......3-2 W/ 5-4-1-6 .......7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #7 with possibly of #1 moving up)

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Awd........3-4 W/ 6-7-10-2 …....7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 or #10 possibly moving up)

R#3 - 1650M (8.25F) Awd....4-2 W/ 3-8-5-6.......8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 or #5 possibly moving up)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Awd.........2-3 W/ 4-6-5-1…….8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 possibly moving up)

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Awd…......2-8 W/ 5-4-9-6.........9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 or #5 possibly moving up)

R#6 - 1800M (9F) Awd.........5-6 W/ 1-8-7-4……..9:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 with possibly of #8 moving up)

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Awd….......1-8 W/ 3-4-2-6.........10:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 with possibly of #6 moving up)

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Awd......1-5 W/ 13-2-3-10 ....10:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 with possibly of #10 moving up)
.

[Nitro]

For any of those who might be considering Dutch Win betting:

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly right after inputting the odds of the selected entries: (Enter Lowest odds to left)
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Potential Profit in $ and %

Note:
Considering that the current hit frequency is 50%, a greater O.A. Profit margin can be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing those races where the Profit % shows less then a 50% margin
……b) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……c) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
...............In other words it’s NOT necessary to play every race!

The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
(See previous HK threads for calculator download)

[kevb]

Hello Nitro. Good fortune.

[kevb]

R1:

WP :2:

[Nitro]

Hello Nitro. Good fortune.
Morning Kev. GL to you also!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 3-2 W/ 5-4-1-6.............. Results: 10-1-6-7 (Out Early – Win Live & Quin)
Dutch – 3 ( 6.7/1 ) – 2 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 7/1 ) - ($66.00) – ($66.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
6.7 7.0 12.0 BET PRF
$15 $16 $26
$26 $25 $15 $66 $134 201%
$200 $200 $200
0 for 1 Early & 1 for 1 Live

[Nitro]

R#2 - 3-4 W/ 6-7-10-2................... Results: 8-1-12-4 (Out Early & Live)
Dutch – 3 ( 5.6/1 ) – 4 ( 6.7/1 ) – 6 ( 13/1 ) - ($65.00) – ($131.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.6 6.7 13.0 BET PRF
$13 $15 $28
$28 $24 $13 $65 $120 183%
$185 $185 $185
0 for 2 Early & 1 for 2 Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 4-2 W/ 3-8-5-6............. Results: 5-6-4-7 ($638 Tri Bx Early – Win/Quin/Tri Live)
Dutch – 4 ( 5.6/1 ) – 2 ( 9.7/1 ) – 3 ( 17/1 ) - ($59.00) – ($190.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 9.1 17.0 BET PRF
$8 $20 $36
$36 $15 $8 $59 $92 155%
$151 $151 $151
0 for 3 Early & 2 for 3 Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-3 W/ 4-6-5-1......... Results: 3-2-7-6 (2nd choice & $59 Quin Early / Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 5.6/1 ) –3 ( 12/1 ) –2 ( 9.7/1 ) - $116.00 – ($74.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.6 9.7 12.0 BET PRF
$13 $21 $26
$26 $16 $13 $55 $116 211%
$172 $172 $172
1 for 4 Early & 3 for 4 Live

[Nitro]

R#5 - 2-8 W/ 5-4-9-6......... Results: 2-12-8-7 (Top choice Early / Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 3/1 ) – 8 ( 6.7/1 ) – 5 ( 24/1 ) - $116.00 – $42.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 6.7 24.0 BET PRF
$8 $15 $50
$50 $26 $8 $84 $116 138%
$200 $200 $200
2 for 5 Early & 4 for 5 Live

[Nitro]

R#6 - 5-6 W/ 1-8-7-4......... Results: 7-5-9-3-14 (5th choice & $34 Quin Early & Live)
Dutch – 5 ( 3.3/1 ) – 6 ( 19/1 ) – 1 ( 16/1 ) - ($59.00) – ($17.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.3 16.0 19.0 BET PRF
$9 $34 $40
$40 $10 $9 $59 $113 193%
$172 $172 $172
2 for 6 Early & 4 for 6 Live

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-8 W/ 3-4-2-6……….Results: 8-9-4-11 (2nd choice Early & Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 8.2/1 ) – 8 ( 3.2/1 ) –3 ( 23/1 ) - $123.00 – $106.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 8.2 23.0 BET PRF
$8 $18 $48
$48 $22 $8 $78 $123 157%
$202 $202 $202
3 for 7 Early & 5 for 7 Live

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-5 W/ 13-2-3-10............ Results: 14-1-4-13 (Out – Early / Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 7.7/1 ) – 5 ( 10/1 ) – 13 ( 3.8/1 ) - ($44.00) – $62.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 7.7 10.0 BET PRF
$10 $17 $22
$22 $12 $10 $44 $62 141%
$106 $106 $106
3 for 8 Early & 5 for 8 Live

Did much better than expected and some Profit with the Early picks, but much better with the Live tote.

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting only 3 out of 8 races (38%) still produced a hypothetical profit of $62 after betting $510 or a 12% profit margin. (BTW that's 1.2 ROI)

Of course, some might scoff at posting 6 selections per race (in fields of 12 to 14 entries), but when played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.

It’s NOT just about picking Winners. Its ALL about making Winning plays.