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kingfin66
11-01-2016, 11:39 PM
First, let me say that I understand that these rankings are meaningless on November 1st. With that out of the way, I have to wonder what the committee was thinking. The elephant in the room is Texas A&M. They are certainly not a bad team, but there is no way that they should be ranked ahead of either Washington or Ohio State.

The first issue is that they have a loss. At this point in the season a team with a loss should not be in the top 4. Period. Their loss is particularly bad for them as it very likely means that they will not have the opportunity to play for the SEC championship. That is, unless Alabama loses one of its last four games. Look out for that Chattanooga team. There is no way that a team who cannot even get to its conference championship game is going to the playoff.

So, why did Washington get screwed. Two reasons. First, their non-conference schedule is pathetically weak as they played and beat Rutgers, Portland State, and Idaho. These teams are bad even by the standards of weak teams. It should be noted that Texas A&M did not exactly schedule a great non-conference schedule. So far they have played and beat UCLA - okay, they are decent - New Mexico State, and Prairie View A&M. They still have the mighty UT San Antonio staring them in the face.

Reason two. In any other year the Huskies wins against Stanford and Oregon would make the world say "WHOA!" Not so much this year as Stanford is 5-3 (3-3 conf) and Oregon is a woeful 3-5 (1-4 bye bye Helfrich). Washington's other wins are against Arizona (losing record), Oregon State (dreadful), and Utah (finally some street cred). Their remaining schedule will be much more difficult than the first half with games upcoming against USC, Arizona St., Cal, and my personal favs, Washington State (GO COUGS!).

This brings me to another point. The SEC non-conference vs. conference games schedule in comparison to the Pac-12 system definitely favors the SEC who plays just 8 conference games compared to 9 for the Pac-12. This allows the SEC to schedule those late season games against patsies.

Where do we go from here? A lot is going to happen between now and the final selections are made. Duh! Clemson should win out. I actually think that they are the worst team from among 'Bama, Michigan, Washington, Ohio St, A&M and themselves. They then have to play either North Carolina or Va Tech in the ACC championship game. If they run the table, they are obviously in.

'Bama - The Tide will keep rolling like they always do and should run the table. They should have an easy time in the SEC title game. They will be in.

Michigan - This is the most interesting team to me. Harbaugh has done an amazing job getting them back to old school ass kicking Michigan. They have that one team - THE Ohio State University - standing in their way. JustRalph has said that it is all about beating Michigan. I think he's right, and wait a minute, the game is in Columbus. I will take Ohio State to win and throw a wrench into the machine. Either one of them should beat the west division champ. That would give Ohio State 1 loss and a Big Ten title. I don't think you can keep them out.

Texas A&M - See above. The fact is, they do not control their own destiny like the other teams. They cannot play in their league championship game. Forgot to mention, that even if Bama were to lose, which is highly unlikely, guess what? Bama beat A&M! Sorry A&M, your consolation prize is a nice bowl game.

Washington - The Huskies have not been here for a long time. If they are legit, they will run the table and win the Pac-12 and go into the playoffs. This is a tremendous scenario that is simply not likely to happen. They have Cal and WSU on the road, and USC and Arizona State at home. WSU is currently 5-0 in Pac-12 play after a slow start (losses against E.Washington and Boise St) and has also beaten Oregon and Stanford along with a live Ariz St team. I think the Cougs can win the Apple Cup this year. Washington could actually end up with two losses as I believe the USC game will also give them a hard time. Sorry UW...

So here is my question to all of you. I see it as:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. ????

What say the rest of you?

RaceBookJoe
11-02-2016, 10:27 AM
Couple other reasons about Washington other what you stated :
1- Most of the country hasn't seen them play due to time zones.
2- Most of the voters are East Coast, at least from what I hear, and that might play a factor with the time issue as in #1 above.

I'm not saying Washington could keep up with a 'Bama team, but they do have a pretty solid team.
Agree with everything else you wrote, Michigan HAS to be Ohio St to be in the discussion. That's another issue I have, teams that lose early in the season have an advantage over teams that lose late in the season.

kingfin66
11-02-2016, 10:59 AM
Couple other reasons about Washington other what you stated :
1- Most of the country hasn't seen them play due to time zones.
2- Most of the voters are East Coast, at least from what I hear, and that might play a factor with the time issue as in #1 above.

I'm not saying Washington could keep up with a 'Bama team, but they do have a pretty solid team.
Agree with everything else you wrote, Michigan HAS to be Ohio St to be in the discussion. That's another issue I have, teams that lose early in the season have an advantage over teams that lose late in the season.

I appreciate the response!

I'm not sure if number one would apply because it is the committee that makes the choices. The Pac-12 does have national TV contracts with ESPN and Fox, but some of the Pac-12 games do start very late. Hell, I have a hard time watching them to the end and I am on the west coast.

I would have to say shame on the committee if they have not informed themselves of all of the teams in contention for the playoff. Sadly, I think you may be right. An eye test should be part of the equation along with strength of schedule, national ranking, record, etc. I just looked at the committee member roster and had to laugh. Noted football expert Condoleezza Rice is on the committee as is former Washington coach Tyrone Willingham. Ty is infamous in Washington for leading the Huskies to an 0-12 record in his last season there.

Marshall Bennett
11-02-2016, 01:25 PM
Always felt a small portion of CFB rankings were based on tradition. You find this at an even higher degree with preseason ranking. How often have we seen a big school ranked in the top 20 only to lose more games than they win?

kingfin66
11-02-2016, 09:50 PM
Oregon and Stanford are prime examples of that theory this year. Stanford was a top 10 team when Washington beat them.

kingfin66
11-06-2016, 12:16 PM
Texas A&M partially resolves the situation for now. I wonder if Ohio State will not jump Washington given their 62-3 beat down of a top 10 team. Washington also won big, but the first release indicated a bias against them.

ElKabong
11-06-2016, 06:38 PM
Aggy in the top four wasn't going to last, they're aggy. They shit the bed, it's what they do.

Washington is a top 4 team in my mind. Watch out for the Pirate tho (mike leach, wash st), he's a giant killer. The modern day Hayden Fry of the smu days....beat a top ten ten, then get beat by a school you never heard of. He has a way of playing spoiler. The cougar huskie game is a must see

My final four is
Bama
Clemson
Washington
Michigan / tOSU winner... My guess is mich wins. Playing Bama type ball right now.

ElKabong
11-13-2016, 01:38 AM
Numbers 2,3,4 get whacked. 8,9 get beat also. Crazy day. Just have to let this thing play out.

Took the wife for a drive through the hill country today. Picked the wrong Saturday to miss football.

kingfin66
11-13-2016, 04:13 AM
I called the Washington loss in my original post. Did not see Michigan losing to Iowa and thought Clemson to be the weakest of the top 4, but did not see them losing. What a crazy week. Ohio State should be happy, but still a little worried since Michigan still controls their own destiny. Tuesday should be interesting.

In the meantime, my Washington State Cougs have a legit shot at the Pac 12 championship game, although they still have a lot of work to do to get there.

Inner Dirt
11-13-2016, 10:58 AM
Numbers 2,3,4 get whacked. 8,9 get beat also. Crazy day. Just have to let this thing play out.

Took the wife for a drive through the hill country today. Picked the wrong Saturday to miss football.

I think that was the most interesting Saturday I can recall just watching broadcast TV.

ElKabong
11-18-2016, 03:07 PM
Well, there goes Louisville...

kingfin66
11-18-2016, 09:46 PM
Everybody moves up one. What a ride.

anotherCAfan
11-20-2016, 09:03 PM
If we could've made a few stops late in game four against Utah -- and if we started Darnold in game two against Utah State -- I wonder where USC would be ranked.

rastajenk
12-01-2016, 11:44 PM
What is the point of a month's worth of pre-selection day soundings anyway, other than to give the ESPN crew something to talk about while more and more teams' hopes and dreams are snuffed while the season marches toward the conclusion?

The B1G's have thrown a skunk in the room, and it could have been avoided if The Committee had kept my Buckeyes no better than 5th after their loss. Conference champ v. head to head v. overall resume v. strength of sked makes a heady brew. If Wisconsin wins, go ahead and send OSU to the playoffs on several points. But if Penn wins, send the conference champ that beat the Bucks, like last year. But don't send two B1G's and stiff some other conference just 'cause you can't drop a 2 out of a position that wouldn't have existed in the first place if it wasn't for these useless rankings. And then you'd have to ask, how do you seed them?

If either Clemson or Alabama get beat Saturday, then everything is on the table and the above rant doesn't apply. Clemson could possibly lose; if Alabama were to get beat, it would put the committee, the process, the whole principle in question if a really really late season loss didn't seem to matter.

reckless
12-03-2016, 07:22 AM
Is it safe to assume that Ohio State in in the Final Four?

I know the corrupt NCAA, their equally dishonest Big Ten Conference partner, plus the TV people want Ohio State (and definitely the OSU-Alabama title game too), but.... what happens if Penn State beats Wisconsin?

Does Penn State get in? Do they get left out at the expense of Ohio State, a team they did beat?

Clemson, Alabama, Washington do seem to be locks for the Final Four too, no?

JustRalph
12-03-2016, 10:34 AM
Going to be interesting. I want my Bucks in.......

JT Barret is playing awful though. He has all but ruined what slim chance he had to be drafted. He's lost his arm. No accuracy at all and I suspect he's hurt.

That could make for an embarrassing loss in the playoff. Then whomever was left out will squeal like a stuck pig. That could hurt OSU in the next few years, just as the team matures. The team has 43 underclassmen. Many many freshmen.

rgustafson
12-03-2016, 11:00 AM
The only way it gets "interesting" is if Clemson loses today. If they win, there is no way a two loss team gets in the top four, especially after last night's rout of Washington over Colorado. If Clemson loses then I think they are out and it will be either Michigan or Wisconsin if they win the big Ten conference title game. Their two losses are by seven points to both Ohio State and Michigan. One of Penn State's losses was a blowout to Michigan and in my opinion then Michigan would get the nod.

MutuelClerk
12-03-2016, 11:45 AM
Michigan fan here. I don't believe we deserve to go. The Iowa loss killed us. If our only loss was the game against the Bucks then I think we should be going. If Clemson wins then the top four are decided. The only way Michigan makes it under that scenario is the greed of ESPN. They would love a Saban vs. Harbaugh matchup.

kingfin66
12-03-2016, 12:12 PM
This whole situation speaks to the need for an 8-team playoff. It is astounding to me that the playoff may potentially (likely) exclude a big five conference champion. Would it make such more sense to have the playoff include the five conference winners plus three at-large teams? This way, the playoff could include:

Alabama (CONF CHAMP)
Ohio State (AT LARGE)
Clemson or Va. Tech (CONF CHAMP)
Washington (CONF CHAMP)
Michigan (AT LARGE)
Penn St. or Wisconsin (CONF CHAMP)
Okla or Oklahoma St. (CONF CHAMP)
West Va. or Baylor (CONF CHAMP)

This assumes that Alabama wins the SEC, but I would have them in the playoff no matter what.

With four teams, as of this morning my rankings would be:

1.Alabama
2.Ohio St.
3.Washington
4.Clemson

It is not fair that big five conference champs are denied, but that is how it has to be with just four teams allowed. I believe that despite their loss to Penn St., Ohio St. is a better team than either Penn St. or Wisconsin.