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View Full Version : True Trainer Champ @ Belmont by WPS returns 45 starts or better -- G Sciacca!!


TheOracle
11-01-2016, 03:37 PM
Based on return on investment* per $2 wager to win, place and show

It pains me to say that the true Trainer Champ at Belmont based on return on investment is G Sciacca his horses had a hit rate across the board that was under 40%

However, due to Sciacca's horses paying big bombs on several occasions on the Dirt he was able to sustain a 27% return for the season and based soley on return per dollar he has to get the edge as the true Return on Investment Champ for Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gsciaccabelall.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gsciaccabelalltwo.jpg

Per my calculations D G Donk finished 2nd with a 14% return overall at Belmont he would have edged out Sciacca but he had a horrible day on October 22nd, he entered 5 horses in Stakes races that never hit the board on that day.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonkbelall.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonkbelalltwo.jpg

If you deduct the $30 cost for that day D G Donk would have had a 28% return on investment overall and would have beaten G Sciacca by 1 percentage point



When you look at the Dirt races for the Trainers with 45 starts or better overall it was a little bit more competitive

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dirtbrkoutbel.jpg

G Sciacca still gets the edge but C Clement came in a close 2nd with a 29% return per $2 win, place and show wager


The best return on investment in Turf races for Trainers with 45 starts or better overall went to G Weaver

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/turfbrkoutbel.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gweaverbelall.jpg


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gweaverbelalltwo.jpg

G Weaver Turf only Belmont
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gweaverbeltrf.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gweaverbeltrftwo.jpg

I will have to remember this for next season at Belmont

*Coupled entries were treated as separate betting interests in the calculations. I haven't found a good way to collapse them as one betting interest.

EMD4ME
11-01-2016, 06:47 PM
What did your homework on AQU main IN NOV show you Oracle?

TheOracle
11-02-2016, 01:19 PM
Hey Bro

You are way ahead of the game hahahaha lol

I will be looking at Aqueduct data tonight hahahaha lol I will definitely let you know what I come up with regarding the Main surface in November.

TheOracle
11-02-2016, 01:49 PM
What did your homework on AQU main IN NOV show you Oracle?

Hey Bro

I will take a look at November and December also at Aqueduct

mistergee
11-02-2016, 02:28 PM
WIN BETS
Dilger
McGauhey
Violette
Donk
Sciacca (again)

TheOracle
11-02-2016, 03:15 PM
WIN BETS
Dilger
McGauhey
Violette
Donk
Sciacca (again)

Ok Mistergee

You now have my complete attention

Every trainer you listed last year from November to December at Aqueduct had positive win Returns on Investment at 38% and higher

I will have the totals and break outs shortly

TheOracle
11-02-2016, 08:39 PM
Here are the win returns and win, place and show returns for the Trainers that Mistergee listed in the previous post:

I don't know how I missed all of these last year. I don't know what in the world I was looking at last year at Aqueduct.

In any case, per me C R McGauhey had the best hit rate across the board and gave a great return at 34% per $2 win place and show wager

He had an even better return of 75% per $2 win wager!!!

C R McGauhey at Aqueduct overall

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/cmacaqu.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/cmacaqutwo.jpg


D G Donk overall at Aqueduct

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonkaqu.jpg


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonktwoaqu.jpg


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonkthreeaqu.jpg


M Dilger overall at Aqueduct returns were just ridiculous

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dilgeraqu.jpg


R A Violette overall at Aqueduct

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/rviolaqu.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/rviolaqutwo.jpg


G Sciacca overall at Aqueduct:

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gsciacaqu.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gsciacaqutwo.jpg

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/gsciacaquthree.jpg


G Sciacca as usual so hard to figure I don't know how you come up with any of his horses

ultracapper
11-03-2016, 04:47 AM
Would trust Donk the least of all to repeat. His positive return was entirely due to that 35/1 out-lier to open the season. I like Violette the best. If he's prepared the same this year as last, he could show similar results.

The results of all these trainers displays very clearly the almost ridiculousness of trying to use the show pool for anything, at all. It's an exercise in futility to expect to make a profit betting into it, and it's absolutely useless as a backup vehicle. After reading this thread, out of curiosity I went through my TVG records for the period 1/1/2016 to present, and I'm proud to be able to honestly say I have not put even $1 into the show pool this year. Truly chasing the dragon betting to show. Not only is it sort of cowardly, but it's a hopeless endeavor expecting to make profit from it. When a $71 horse returns $8 to show, you can see very clearly that, even though you may end up missing a few, taking that bet made into the show pool and instead betting it into the place pool will easily and reliably ultimately return more $s even with the reduced hit rate.

The info you collect, from my viewpoint, probably has negligible value in selecting horses to bet on, but it definitely can prove valuable in assisting you in developing money management strategies, strategies that you can apply to all races. Keep up the good work TheOracle.

TheOracle
11-03-2016, 12:34 PM
Would trust Donk the least of all to repeat. His positive return was entirely due to that 35/1 out-lier to open the season. I like Violette the best. If he's prepared the same this year as last, he could show similar results.

The results of all these trainers displays very clearly the almost ridiculousness of trying to use the show pool for anything, at all. It's an exercise in futility to expect to make a profit betting into it, and it's absolutely useless as a backup vehicle. After reading this thread, out of curiosity I went through my TVG records for the period 1/1/2016 to present, and I'm proud to be able to honestly say I have not put even $1 into the show pool this year. Truly chasing the dragon betting to show. Not only is it sort of cowardly, but it's a hopeless endeavor expecting to make profit from it. When a $71 horse returns $8 to show, you can see very clearly that, even though you may end up missing a few, taking that bet made into the show pool and instead betting it into the place pool will easily and reliably ultimately return more $s even with the reduced hit rate.

The info you collect, from my viewpoint, probably has negligible value in selecting horses to bet on, but it definitely can prove valuable in assisting you in developing money management strategies, strategies that you can apply to all races. Keep up the good work TheOracle.

Hey Ultra,

Thanks and yes you have hit it exactly.

I think there are some, myself included, that will see a 35-1 shot and think that it has no chance to win and so they turn to the show only to see the horse win or place and wind up with a fraction of the return they should be getting

Sometimes it's hard to commit to that long shot but in the long run you barely if at all make a profit