BC Dirt Mile

[Redboard]

LADBROKES 10/30/16
Dortmund (E 7) 4/5
Runhappy (E/P 8) 5/1
Gun Runner (P 3) 5/1
Tamarkuz (E/P 4) 8/1
Vyjack (S 3) 10/1
Tom's Ready (S 1) 10/1
Texas Chrome (E/P 5) 14/1
Accelerate(E/P 5) 20/1
Point Piper (E/P 4) 20/1
War Story(E/P 2) – can’t believe they’d run him in the classic.
Midnight Storm(E8) – will probably opt for the turf mile, although would be very interesting here.

I still believe this is going to be a good betting race, much better than the classic. I wouldn’t call the field “strong” but you have a weak favorite, who’s going to be over bet, with a bunch of 5/1 – 10/1’s. What more can you ask for?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if Gun Runner won, they’d give him the 3YrOld eclipse award. (if Arrogate bombs in the BCC)

[holmmd]

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

[the little guy]

Dortmund doesn't look like a weak favorite to me. I think he's the most likely winner over both days.

[burnsy]

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

Agreed, Dortmund will be tough. But for the BC Mile I think its a pretty deep field. A couple of these wanted no part of the Classic so its a pretty good field IMO. Plus being "home" is a definite edge for him. I wouldn't call him weak chalk but 4-5 is a little much. The way these races run many times 4-5 is a bad bet. Not my cup of tea when I know there will be a couple of box cars.

[Redboard]

Connections of Dortmund have already said that they are gunning for the lead.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree that Dortmund is beatable. He's a hard hitter, but he's never been able to relax.


Having trouble coming up with a rival to Dortmund that I feel is a strong win contender.

What's the story with Runhappy? His 'A' form probably wins this.

Tamarkuz is a classy pro. He kind of runs his 'bridesmaid race', but if enough heads knock up front, he could potentially benefit.

Gun Runner ran a nice race in Philly. I've never had him among the division leaders at any point, but he is good, and may be improving.

Vyjack is a fun horse to see here. He had an absolute dream trip/pace-collapse last time to win. Has to be a fun 'project' for D'Amato. Been a fan since his Rudy days.

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

[reckless]

I am singling Dortmund in all my horizontal bets.

I'll make exactas and trifectas with both Tamarkuz and Vyjack. Both have good current form and will be much better prices than Runhappy and Gun Runner.

[Garyinseattle]

LADBROKES 10/30/16
Dortmund (E 7) 4/5
Runhappy (E/P 8) 5/1
Gun Runner (P 3) 5/1
Tamarkuz (E/P 4) 8/1
Vyjack (S 3) 10/1
Tom's Ready (S 1) 10/1
Texas Chrome (E/P 5) 14/1
Accelerate(E/P 5) 20/1
Point Piper (E/P 4) 20/1
War Story(E/P 2) – can’t believe they’d run him in the classic.
Midnight Storm(E8) – will probably opt for the turf mile, although would be very interesting here.

I still believe this is going to be a good betting race, much better than the classic. I wouldn’t call the field “strong” but you have a weak favorite, who’s going to be over bet, with a bunch of 5/1 – 10/1’s. What more can you ask for?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that if Gun Runner won, they’d give him the 3YrOld eclipse award. (if Arrogate bombs in the BCC)


Gun Runner wins 3yr old eclipse based on a win here and the Louisiana Derby ?

You serious ?

[bobphilo]

I agree that Dortmund is beatable. He's a hard hitter, but he's never been able to relax.


Having trouble coming up with a rival to Dortmund that I feel is a strong win contender.

What's the story with Runhappy? His 'A' form probably wins this.

Tamarkuz is a classy pro. He kind of runs his 'bridesmaid race', but if enough heads knock up front, he could potentially benefit.

Gun Runner ran a nice race in Philly. I've never had him among the division leaders at any point, but he is good, and may be improving.

Vyjack is a fun horse to see here. He had an absolute dream trip/pace-collapse last time to win. Has to be a fun 'project' for D'Amato. Been a fan since his Rudy days.

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

Dortmund is the horse to beat. If he is unable to relax like the day he ran against Chrome. he wins for fun.
As much as I'd like Runhappy to win, he is sadly not the same horse he was last year. He was rushed back after being laid up for almost a year and his poor finish in the Ack Ack proved it.

[arw629]

I don't get why people view Dortmund as a weak favorite. All's he done is lost to the possible the best dirt horse in the world the past few times out. This is his race to lose imo.

Dortmund is over bet everytime he runs...he might win but how can you trust him? He's 2 for his last 7 since his Santa anita derby win in 2015 after starting his career 6 for 6....if you look at his 8 career wins who was his toughest competition? Firing Line, Mr Z, Imperative? So yea he put up big figs in match races with Chrome but has he ever beaten a top class horse at any point in his career?
I'm using VyJack, Tom's Ready, Gun Runner, and Dortmund in this race defensively and hoping to survive.

[andtheyreoff]

Gun Runner wins 3yr old eclipse based on a win here and the Louisiana Derby ?

You serious ?

No way would he win it. Exaggerator has three grade 1 wins this year. Under Redboard's scenario. Gun Runner would have one grade 1 win. Not happening.

[Mulerider]

Accelerate may not be up to this class. He's very game.

That's exactly how I view Texas Chrome. I think he's probably outclassed here, but he gives 100% every time. I thought his Oklahoma Derby win was impressive, coming just 14 days after winning the Super Derby.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Dortmund is the horse to beat. If he is unable to relax like the day he ran against Chrome. he wins for fun.
As much as I'd like Runhappy to win, he is sadly not the same horse he was last year. He was rushed back after being laid up for almost a year and his poor finish in the Ack Ack proved it.

The "horse to beat tag" is just that.

The :7: and :9: know they can't win by giving Dorty the lead.

Pace will be hot. Is Dorty good enough to fend off Vyjack, or Toms Ready, and/or Texas Chrome after a 1:08 and change contested 6Fs? Can he chase and win if not THE front end?

[classhandicapper]

Connections of Dortmund have already said that they are gunning for the lead.

He couldn't even come to close to keeping up with CA Chrome when he tried (who admittedly is deceptively quick when asked). There's no way he can stay with Runhappy. He's going to have to be satisfied sitting 2nd and hoping that there's no speed bias to carry Runhappy. He can go get him on the turn.

[bobphilo]

He couldn't even come to close to keeping up with CA Chrome when he tried (who admittedly is deceptively quick when asked). There's no way he can stay with Runhappy. He's going to have to be satisfied sitting 2nd and hoping that there's no speed bias to carry Runhappy. He can go get him on the turn.
Again with the bogus speed biases. Crazy early speed is a disadvantage on any speed surface.
So-called speed bias or not, Runhappy is no longer the horse he was last year regardless of pace and especially regardless of mythical speed biased surface.

[bobphilo]

Dortmund is over bet everytime he runs...he might win but how can you trust him? He's 2 for his last 7 since his Santa anita derby win in 2015 after starting his career 6 for 6....if you look at his 8 career wins who was his toughest competition? Firing Line, Mr Z, Imperative? So yea he put up big figs in match races with Chrome but has he ever beaten a top class horse at any point in his career?
I'm using VyJack, Tom's Ready, Gun Runner, and Dortmund in this race defensively and hoping to survive.
Can't predict whether he will be over-bet or not but he is the best horse coming into this race. He has the best figures and came a lot closer to beating Chrome than anyone else here.

[ebcorde]

I would play 3,8,9 on top
.
Today I pass. all but 2 Horses have a solid chance, usually on BC weekend Horses don't bounce back to win so you can reliably throw out Horses with low Speed Rating last out and those with the lower ITM%,

Dortmund has been running way above the avg speed rating for the California circuit (Obviously) He's a solid 6-5. Point Pipe/Vyjack might sneak in for a Placing

[cj]

The Dirt Mile is one of the races I wrote up for TimeformUS:

https://timeformusblog.com/2016/11/02/breeders-cup-dirt-mile-preview-to-get-out-of-a-chrome-shadow-dortmund-is-relegated-to-second-division/

[Robert Fischer]

Very good writeup.

131 TFUS for Dortmund last time, chasing Chrome

[arw629]

Can't predict whether he will be over-bet or not but he is the best horse coming into this race. He has the best figures and came a lot closer to beating Chrome than anyone else here.
I see the race unfolding like this ....Runhappy clears Dortmund and Dortmund chases him ....Dortmund either never catches him or makes a lead turning for home and will have to hold off everyone else ....Gun Runner has shown he can relax and make a move but I worry he will be too far from the front runners compromising his kick ....that leaves the rest of the field to close and VyJack and Tom's Ready drew great posts for that going two turns although I think they wpuld have stood a better chance at one turn ....i would like Gun Runner a lot more with an inside post but I just think race flow will be against Dortmund....Dortmund ' s best chance is Runhappy runs a clunker and backs up early which will give Dortmund confidence and more in the tank to keep going

[Redboard]

Runhappy is not getting much love from the talking-head experts. But his last race was on a wet track. At the very least he's going to give Dortmund a run, which will lower Dortmund's chances. If Dortmund doesn't go after him, he could wire the field. Looking great in the morning, Gary Stevens on board.

[ebcorde]

He couldn't even come to close to keeping up with CA Chrome when he tried (who admittedly is deceptively quick when asked). There's no way he can stay with Runhappy. He's going to have to be satisfied sitting 2nd and hoping that there's no speed bias to carry Runhappy. He can go get him on the turn.

Makes sense. Make the East Coast Horses chase from the get go.

[classhandicapper]

Again with the bogus speed biases. Crazy early speed is a disadvantage on any speed surface.
So-called speed bias or not, Runhappy is no longer the horse he was last year regardless of pace and especially regardless of mythical speed biased surface.

Runhappy looked like a potentially elite sprinter last year. It's unfortunate how he's being handled this year. It would have made more sense to give him a sprint prep, run in the BC Sprint, and then if they wanted to be ambitious and test him, try the Cigar Mile.

IMO, he has very little chance to win tomorrow against this quality of horse going 8F based on what we saw last time. He looked very short. He'd have to move up a LOT. But he's still faster than these early if they use his speed.

And YES, his only shot absent huge improvement would be a rare speed bias strong enough to carry that speed further than an average track would on the typical day. There is nothing mythical about the bets on horses I've cashed on that were carried by a speed bias to better than expected races over the last 40 years.

[Robert Fischer]

Supposedly, if you disparage Run Happy before the race, they won't be allowing you to mutter the phrase "speed bias", after the race, if he miraculously returns to top form and stretches out successfully.

[VeryOldMan]

Runhappy looked like a potentially elite sprinter last year. It's unfortunate how he's being handled this year. It would have made more sense to give him a sprint prep, run in the BC Sprint, and then if they wanted to be ambitious and test him, try the Cigar Mile.

IMO, he has very little chance to win tomorrow against this quality of horse going 8F based on what we saw last time. He looked very short. He'd have to move up a LOT. But he's still faster than these early if they use his speed.

+1. I loved the Runhappy story last year and made some money on him in the BC, but it has been painful to watch how his story subsequently unfolded. I'm having a hard time seeing him getting 8f over 2 turns here against this field, including Dortmund. My hat's off to Runhappy and his connections if they pull it off.

[depalma113]

Point Piper because it's going to be Hallendorfer of a day!

[burnsy]

Runhappy looked like a potentially elite sprinter last year. It's unfortunate how he's being handled this year. It would have made more sense to give him a sprint prep, run in the BC Sprint, and then if they wanted to be ambitious and test him, try the Cigar Mile.

IMO, he has very little chance to win tomorrow against this quality of horse going 8F based on what we saw last time. He looked very short. He'd have to move up a LOT. But he's still faster than these early if they use his speed.

And YES, his only shot absent huge improvement would be a rare speed bias strong enough to carry that speed further than an average track would on the typical day. There is nothing mythical about the bets on horses I've cashed on that were carried by a speed bias to better than expected races over the last 40 years.

Exactly, the stretch out race here is kind of a stretch for this horse. These are non-sprinting types, the presence of strong bias is his only hope. Dortmund is most likely going to be first or second, win or lose. I'm interested in Vyjack and Tom's Ready with Dortmund. Runhappy may not even be able to get away from Dortmund enough to make a difference, then the wheels fall off and here comes these two late. I'm not saying Runhappy can't win, but if its only 3-1 that's hard for me to like in this spot vs. these.


:3: / :1: , :2: , :9:

[Robert Fischer]

I think Dortmund, Tamarkuz and Gun Runner will duel to the wire.

Dortmund is the most likely winner, both in that scenario, and with the chance that he can win as easily as it looks on paper.

I like Accelerate to hit the tri or super.

[no breathalyzer]

Runhappy... what a waste of a great sprinter... sad

[bobphilo]

I think Dortmund, Tamarkuz and Gun Runner will duel to the wire.

Dortmund is the most likely winner, both in that scenario, and with the chance that he can win as easily as it looks on paper.

I like Accelerate to hit the tri or super.
Excellent call
A few minutes before post I got a look at the Brisnet PPs and they had Tamarkuz with a class figure about the same as and a speed figure superior to Dortmund and he was 15-1 !!! I am the world's biggest jerk for not having the guts to bet him. :bang: :bang: :(

[CincyHorseplayer]

Excellent call
A few minutes before post I got a look at the Brisnet PPs and they had Tamarkuz with a class figure about the same as and a speed figure superior to Dortmund and he was 15-1 !!! I am the world's biggest jerk for not having the guts to bet him. :bang: :bang: :(

I had Dortmund an A and Tamarkuz a B. Let the odds dictate that bet. The A will win more times than not but on days like this go for the kill bro! I can't believe that one was double digit odds. The California Chrome residual value effect! :D

[GMB@BP]

I think Dortmund, Tamarkuz and Gun Runner will duel to the wire.

Dortmund is the most likely winner, both in that scenario, and with the chance that he can win as easily as it looks on paper.

I like Accelerate to hit the tri or super.

well if you bet it right you should have made out like a bandit

[burnsy]

Ate it on that one, as both front end horses faded hard. Track was a fair deal yesterday.

[classhandicapper]

I had Dortmund an A and Tamarkuz a B. Let the odds dictate that bet. The A will win more times than not but on days like this go for the kill bro! I can't believe that one was double digit odds. The California Chrome residual value effect! :D

Good play.

I was more or less settled on Dortmund being a likely winner and not a good enough value to play. So I didn't put a lot of energy into the race. The one horse I was a little interested in was Accelerate but concluded he was at best a threat for 3rd or 4th. Had I not been dealing with "work" and a home computer crash I might have had a saver win bet on Tamarkuz at that price. But I would have blown the big exactas with Dortmund . T was also my B. I was at least happy Accelerate outran his odds like I thought he might, but my blown out hard drive...no so happy about that. :rolleyes:

The pace wound up being more demanding that I thought also.