Calder Eliminator

[charleslanger]

Starting late here, as have been having severe computer problems: yesterday was only able to run to an internet cafe & make a selection with no benefit of pp's: the first race maiden claimer showed only 7 entries, so took the morning line favorite there, which finished second-- should've pressed the lone early winner a bit instead of chasing in second: in my opinion, this would've given it the win-- as it finished over 5 lengths clear of third place.

For today-- no chance to even look at the whole card or fire up a handicapping program-- so in the 5th race:

the #3 Shorey Village fits the NW Allowance of 2 to a tee: lightly-raced & fast improving 3YearOld moving steadily through its conditions in only 1 or 2 tries. All the following have been higher in each subsequent race: pace, late speed, final speed, TPR. The same should apply to today's race, and the sky's the limit as far as when it will reach its peak / highest class level. To boot it's had significant stretch trouble in it's two wins when breaking from the rail-- today's third post should give it better options. It's 2 X 2 over the course, and while it is coming off a 1½ month layoff, it's
been working out often and fast during the intervening time. While others have raced at slightly higher levels & may show even higher figures, either the're older, come from a lesser ciruit, have many more races under their belt-- all this meaning they've likely established their level, or won't rise much higher-- barring a sudden turnaround. One or two may beat it in fact, but we're choosing here the one with the highest chance of showing-- win record won't matter in this contest. We are taking a bit of a risk with such a sizable field,,, We'll be able to peruse tomorrow's card at leisure.

Main contenders:

the #7 can win this race: it actually earned a higher figure while facing a significantly higher pace-- but at Tampa, so no way to confirm the validity of that fig. Its previous relevant race over this course last year can be discounted because of it was it's initial route try, the surface was giving, etc.
both # 11 & 12 show monster late pace figs in their most recent race-- however, these were earned against very slow early paces. They also both have raced 20 times or more, among other various knocks.

Good luck.
.

[charleslanger]

That was a Master of the Obvious race:rolleyes: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=CRC&CY=USA&DATE=07/18/2004&STYLE=EQB

[Light]

I wouldn't knock you for picking a $5.00 horse. Do that regurlarly and you could quit your day job. I'm 3 for 3 at Calder.I picked Format today in the 8th($7.60). I'm using a different stategy in this Eliminator: I'm looking at the PP's,but I scan for a particular angle.The ML angle I used at Ellis has had no plays at Calder or Arlington due to those ML maker's higher ML's than Ellis's. Also still alive at Arlington.

[charleslanger]

I'm still having computer problems-- couldn't make a choice for the third day.... arrgghhh.....

[charleslanger]

This one should be over soon, and then they'll start another round....

[charleslanger]

9th race: #4 Punch Appeal towers over these....

[charleslanger]

Dirt -fast(good job of deflecting rain on dark days.. in fact, water will be added today) Turf -good, rail 10' out; Weather-- sunny, low 90's.

Contest selection remains the same.

[Light]

Charles:

I'm still alive at Calder. Down to 190. You still in?

[charleslanger]

Nah, i couldn't get to a computer on the third day....been long gone.... can't wait for this one to end & the next edition......

Give 'em hell.....

[charleslanger]

Turf Rail- 10' out....

10th race #9 Gin Rummy Champ

[charleslanger]

Made it, but was banking on a rating, not front-running trip(esp with the rail out) just in front of his father on the 6: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=CRC&CY=USA&DATE=07/24/2004&STYLE=EQB

[Light]

Charles

Gin Rummy Champ.That was my play today too. Kept me alive. Now down to 85 players. I feel honored <G>.

[charleslanger]

aha!!!!!! a small clue re your secret-spice morning line recipe..... i feel humored<g>

[charleslanger]

6th race: Don't like the way the 3 Devils Disciple is being handled... to boot it will garner the most selections. Otherwise, on paper, it's the lock of the meet. Much wiser will it be to instead take the 4 Magic Speed. Even if nothing wrong with the 3, it should still dispose of the rest-- perfect chance to advance, with additionally: a chance for most of those still remaining to be eliminated.

Good luck.

[Light]

Charles


I'll stay away from that 2yo race. They are just too unpredictable.One of my forte's is Turf,so I took the 8th on Turf.

My pick is #7 Quanaco(ML 5-1). Returning to Turf for this 3yo who has the highest turf figures in the field from when last seen on turf back in Feb. Add the matutity of 5 months for this 3yo and you have a dangerous horse.

Plus this horse has been sent off at 1-2 in it's last 2 starts on dirt.

And he has a nice little freshener: off allmost 1-1/2 months,and a prep on 7/17.

[Light]

Raining.Off ther Turf.

[charleslanger]

Light:

I love 2yo's-- find them much more predictable than 3yo's...

How do you account for moisture(yielding, etc.) in your turf decisions?

[charleslanger]

Remaining Players: 57 out of 1494 after 7 days......

[Light]

And I'm still one of them.

To answer your question about moisture in turf...It seems to make the surface biased one way or another(speed or closers).But it also seems to coincide with the geograpic course and track maintenance manicure.

I probably will try and focus on the Turf races for the rest of this contest.Turf performances seems more honest to me than on dirt. And the turf numbers seem surprisingly more reliable than dirt numbers.

[Light]

Back to work tomorrow in the Calder contest. Was a nice break.

Suggestions for who to select tomorrow are welcome. Starting to get nervous turning into the stretch.

[charleslanger]

Could be too long of a break-- disrupts continuity, who knows what kind of work could've been performed on the track surface during this extended break-- that might have an effect of running trend/bias... Speaking of-- Rain today Friday & tomorrow Saturday...

If possible i'd hold off until the track maintenace report's issued, the weather picture is more defined, scratches are in-- which could be a slew of 'em depending on weather.......

I'll take a glance now, before the other tracks, but otherwise wouldn't worry too much now until the actual worrying time arrives-- all the handicapping work tonight could be for naught anyways-- one may like something entirely different tomorrow...

Let's see if anything stands out now......
.

[charleslanger]

The usual cautions that after scratches & track report selections could be totally different take on more urgency here, as we're coming off a longer-than normal break & have unsettled weather to deal with.

Any second choices given for any race are usually much lesser in quality not just to top pick in that race, but other top picks elswhere-- they would not come into play unless there's a plethora of scratches... which may very well occur tomorrow.

Assuming Dirt Fast / stay on the Turf conditions:

13th race-- #1 Wise Brianna looms as our potential safest selection.

7th -- 9 Moment of Song is a pre-contender not only under Fast, but looms as our Wet Dirt track selection-- the only one so far.

8th -- 1 With The Irish even if the turf is rated Good. Second choice 6 Decaf might become the choice if both: the turf's real boggy soft and multiple scratches occur.

10th -- 1 Hostile Witness

1st -- 1 American Cat. Second choice: 2 Wild Paul


Muddy / Sloppy Dirt

7th-- 9 Moment of Song

-- Yielding / Soft Turf

8th-- 6 Decaf: tough we would probably require a few scratches to place our hopes on this one.....

That's it-- and no real sense writing a book here detailing all reasons, as everything may change tomorrow morning.

To quote Binder: "Good Skill Tomorrow"...........

[Light]

Really leaning to #5 Built Up in the Stake. Only reservation is this horse's last was a top when sprinting against the top in the country. But this horse should have bounced twice allready. Instead has created a new top in his last 3 starts. Seems sharp. 3-3 ITM @ this distance.4-4 ITM with this Jock. Best of 58 5 f work since last. Let it roll.

[charleslanger]

(1) What is the condition of the main track today?

The main track is fast.

(2) What did you do to the main track today?

We graded the track several times during the days off to get everything evened out, including both chutes, in spite of the four inches of rain we got. Today we used the floats and the pack harrows after training hours. We'll water throughout the day as needed.

(3) What did you do to the turf course today?

Off the turf. The course fertilized, sprayed, cut, vacuumed and rolled this week.

(4) Where is the temporary rail set on the turf course today?

No turf, no rail.

I went searching for a horse built up in the stake and couldn't find one in the whole card until.....

in the 9th race he does seem to have just hit his 'gelding growth spurt' & have the rest over a barrel-- the extra half-furlong worries me a bit..... Good Luck.

I took 7th 9 Moment of Song due to the weather......
.

[Light]

Me and my 3/5 shot are out. Winners were 15-1,second 47-1,3rd,the horse I actually bet at 27-1.

Now that I'm completely eliminated,I can relax.But I do have a shot going into the last week of the Bris 60k contest. I am currently 134th. No excuses for me in this eliminator, but I allways stayed with small fields.This was a 9 horse field.And this horse did finally bounce.Not wise strategy. Should have listened to you Charles.

[charleslanger]

big payoffs:

$2 Pick 3 9-4-2 (3 correct) 730.80 9,617
$2 Exacta 2-11 1,099.60 133,337
$2 Superfecta 2-11-4-ALL 29,813.80 40,841
$2 Trifecta 2-11-4 14,038.00 115,382


YET, look at the takeout in the superfecta pool: $11,000 +

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=CRC&CY=USA&DATE=07/31/2004&STYLE=EQB

[charleslanger]

The 'weather' reason given for final contest selection today, referred to unsettled weather picture... the horse was versatile on both dry & wet footing... Last thing we'd need is to be stuck on someone unproven in wet going if a deluge fell later on in the card.... Contest forces one to think ahead & plan for all eventualities......

Remaining Players: 24 out of 1494 after 8 days... This is another one i blew by missing one post time during computer problems-- not by picking a loser... Will look forward to its next edition....

[charleslanger]

Everyone today given an automatic free contest pass when last two scheduled races were cancelled......

[charleslanger]

13 of 1494 left after 9 days-- 8 really, as one day was a free pass...