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View Full Version : HONG KONG/HAPPY VALLEY - SUN 10/30


Nitro
10-29-2016, 11:02 PM
Good evening and soon morning to everyone that’s interested in playing the best racing product on the planet!
It’s sort of unusual because normally the weekend racing takes place at Sha Tin. I’m not aware of what caused this change.
But in any case, it looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields of 11 or 12 entries in ALL 10 Turf races.
There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: R#5 - R#8 - R#9 - R#10
I won’t be posting any live selections for any of the races in this morning.
However, my early selections will follow.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for the first 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races, try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

Nitro
10-29-2016, 11:39 PM
1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

Nitro
10-29-2016, 11:55 PM
I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race based on what I call a “static tote analysis”.
Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations (Note Entries of Interest), but all the preliminaries look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf.......4-2 W/ 9-8-10-1 ........12:45 AM EST
(Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #6 #11)

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf............4-1 W/ 3-9-2-7 ……....1:15 AM EST
(Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #8 & #9 moving up)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf............3-4 W/ 12-2-11-5.......1:45 AM EST
( Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #6 & #7)

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf........2-3 W/ 4-1-8-10…......2:15 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest be watching the action on #5 & #9)

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf.............2-3 W/ 4-8-5-1............3:05 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest be watching the action on #11 & #8 moving up)

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf........7-1 W/ 3-5-6-9……......3:35 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #5 moving up)

R#7 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf........3-5 W/ 7-2-4-8............4:05 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #2 moving up)

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf..............1-4 W/ 5-2-10-6 …....…4:35 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #2 or #10 moving up)

R#9 - 1800M (9F) Turf.............3-5 W/ 1-6-4-12 ……....5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #2 and #6 or #4 moving up)

R#10 -1200M (6F) Turf............1-2 W/ 3-4-6-5 …....…4:35 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #10 & #6 moving up)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

Nitro
10-30-2016, 12:01 AM
For any of those who might be considering Dutch Win betting:

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly right after inputting the odds of the selected entries: (Enter Lowest odds to left)
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Potential Profit in $ and %

Note:
Considering that the current hit frequency is 50%, a greater O.A. Profit margin can be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing those races where the Profit % shows less then a 50% margin
……b) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……c) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
...............In other words it’s NOT necessary to play every race!

(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

kevb
10-30-2016, 12:22 AM
Hello Nitro,

Nitro
10-30-2016, 12:34 AM
Hello Nitro,
Good morning Kev. GL today! :ThmbUp:

kevb
10-30-2016, 12:41 AM
R1:

Wow. Even money on a 0-21 maiden with Joe getting aboard. Even in the heydays of Russel Baze, I don't think he would drive an 0-21 maiden down to even money.

WS :4: :10:

Still looking at the 11. Capable of wiring this bunch.

Nitro
10-30-2016, 01:00 AM
R#1 – 4-2 W/ 9-8-10-1.............. Results: 2-6-8-9 (2nd choice)
Dutch – 4 ( 16/1 ) – 2 ( 6.2/1 ) – 9 ( 2/1 ) - $48.00) – $48.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 6.2 16.0 BET PRF
$6 $14 $34
$34 $14 $6 $54 $48 88%
$102 $102 $102

Nitro
10-30-2016, 01:26 AM
R#2 – 4-1 W/ 3-9-2-7................... Results: 9-11-4-3 (4th choice – Moved up Live to 3rd choice)
Dutch – 4 ( 4.4/1 ) – 1 ( 16/1 ) – 3 ( 18/1 ) - ($61.00) – ($13.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.4 16.0 18.0 BET PRF
$11 $34 $38
$38 $12 $11 $61 $144 237%
$205 $205 $205

Nitro
10-30-2016, 01:59 AM
R#3 - 3-4 W/ 12-2-11-5....... Results: 6-8-9-7 (Out)
Dutch – 3 ( 5.3/1 ) – 4 ( 11/1 ) – 12 ( 4.2/1 ) - ($54.00) – ($68.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 5.3 11.0 BET PRF
$10 $13 $24
$24 $20 $10 $54 $71 130%
$125 $125 $125

Nitro
10-30-2016, 02:31 AM
R#4 - 2-3 W/ 4-1-8-10......... Results: 10-2-7-6 (6th choice – $46 Quin – Moved up Live to 3rd)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.6/1 ) – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 4 ( 8.1/1 ) - ($38.00) – ($106.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 8.1 10.0 BET PRF
$7 $18 $22
$22 $9 $7 $38 $41 109%
$79 $79 $79
Dutching so far: 1 for 4 Early & 3 for 4 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 02:36 AM
Japan -

Race #11 - 8-9 W/1-15-12-3

Nitro
10-30-2016, 03:04 AM
Japan -

Race #11 - 8-9 W/1-15-12-3

Results Race #11 = 8-12-14-3 – Win & Exacta

$2.00 WIN – 8 - $8.70
$2.00 EXACTA – 8-12 - $75.60

Nitro
10-30-2016, 03:17 AM
R#5 – 2-3 W/ 4-8-5-1......... Results: 8-4-10-3 (4th choice – Moved to 2nd choice Live)
Dutch – 2 ( 8/1 ) – 3 ( 13/1 ) – 4 ( 4.1/1 ) - ($54.00) – ($160.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.1 8.0 13.0 BET PRF
$10 $18 $28
$28 $16 $10 $54 $89 164%
$143 $143 $143
Dutching so far: 1 for 5 Early & 4 for 5 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 03:47 AM
R#6 – 7-1 W/ 3-5-6-9......... Results: 6-9-2-1 (5th choice - Dutch out Early & Live)
Dutch – 7 ( 7/1 ) – 1 ( 20/1 ) – 3 ( 24/1 ) - ($43.00) – ($203.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
7.0 20.0 24.0 BET PRF
$16 $42 $50
$25 $10 $8 $43 $157 365%
$200 $210 $200
Dutching so far: 1 for 6 Early & 4 for 6 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 04:16 AM
R#7 - 3-5 W/ 7-2-4-8.......... Results: 3-1-7-4 (Top choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 24/1 ) – 5 ( 6.8/1 ) –7 ( 2.4/1 ) - $91.00 – ($112.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.4 6.8 24.0 BET PRF
$7 $16 $50
$50 $22 $7 $79 $91 116%
$170 $170 $170
Dutching so far: 2 for 7 Early & 5 for 7 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 04:52 AM
R#8 - 1-4 W/ 5-2-10-6........Results: 5 -6-1-12 (3rd choice & $318 Tri Bx)
Dutch –1 ( 7.3/1 ) – 4 ( 4.1/1 ) – 5 ( 6.5/1 ) - $104.00) – ($4.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.1 6.5 7.8 BET PRF
$10 $15 $18
$36 $24 $20 $80 $104 130%
$184 $180 $176
Dutching so far: 3 for 8 Early & 6 for 8 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 05:25 AM
R#9 - 3-5 W/ 1-6-4-12........Results: 5-12-8-10 (2nd choice & $21Quin)
Dutch –3 ( 12/1 ) – 5 ( 5.7/1 ) – 1 ( 11 /1 ) - $120.00 – $116.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.7 11.0 12.0 BET PRF
$13 $24 $26
$26 $15 $13 $54 $120 223%
$174 $174 $174
Dutching so far: 4 for 9 Early & 7 for 9 Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 06:02 AM
R#10 - 1-2 W/ 3-4-6-5........Results: 3 -10-7-6 (3rd choice)
Dutch –1 ( 9.8/1 ) – 2 ( 8.8/1 ) – 3 ( 4.8/1 ) - $79.00) – $195.00 :ThmbUp:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 8.8 9.8 BET PRF
$12 $20 $22
$22 $13 $12 $46 $79 172%
$125 $125 $125
Final Dutching Results: 5 for 10 (50%) Early & 8 for 10 (80%)Live

Nitro
10-30-2016, 06:15 AM
This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).

Hitting 5 out of 10 races (50%) produced a Profit of $195 after betting $563 or a 35% Profit margin. (The Live Dutching turned out even better!)
When played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of selected entries with decent odds.

You just can't beat the racing in HK! :ThmbUp:

Nitro
10-31-2016, 01:19 PM
This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).

Hitting 5 out of 10 races (50%) produced a Profit of $195 after betting $563 or a 35% Profit margin. (The Live Dutching turned out even better!)
When played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of selected entries with decent odds.

You just can't beat the racing in HK! :ThmbUp:
Slight correction: Net Profit was $192 and a 34% Profit margin.