Trump's 1% problem in Missouri

[zico20]

The St. Louis Post Dispatch just did a poll on the Presidential race here in Missouri. Trump leads by 5%, which is about right. However, Trump only registered one percent support from blacks. Hillary got 93 percent and 6 percent were undecided. Are you kidding me. One freaking percent among blacks. Damn, if the Grand Wizard of the KKK ran here in Missouri as a Republican I am willing to bet even he could squeak out 1 percent somehow.

Here is something that gives me a little hope. The Post dispatch also did a poll on the Missouri senate race and Senator Blunt only scored 3 percent support among blacks, Kander got 86 percent and 11 percent were undecided. Maybe it is just black people in Missouri who are not voting Republican and not nationwide.

But damn, come on, one percent for Trump.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

The link does not provide the racial breakdown, it was in the actual paper.

[_______]

The St. Louis Post Dispatch just did a poll on the Presidential race here in Missouri. Trump leads by 5%, which is about right. However, Trump only registered one percent support from blacks. Hillary got 93 percent and 6 percent were undecided. Are you kidding me. One freaking percent among blacks. Damn, if the Grand Wizard of the KKK ran here in Missouri as a Republican I am willing to bet even he could squeak out 1 percent somehow.

Here is something that gives me a little hope. The Post dispatch also did a poll on the Missouri senate race and Senator Blunt only scored 3 percent support among blacks, Kander got 86 percent and 11 percent were undecided. Maybe it is just black people in Missouri who are not voting Republican and not nationwide.

But damn, come on, one percent for Trump.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

The link does not provide the racial breakdown, it was in the actual paper.

Trump will get a lower percentage of the black vote than the last Republican to run against the first black president. He'll also get a lower percentage of the Hispanic vote.

Those aren't all that shocking considering the racially tinged campaign he has run.

The fact that he'll do worse than Romney with white voters is what I think the headline should be.

[EasyGoer89]

if a spouse or child lives in a democratic household and they want to keep living there are they gonna tell mom or dad or each other they're voting for Trump?

Could they be voting for trump in secret and telling their relatives 'yay Hillary.'?

[_______]

There was no evidence of it in the primaries. I can't rule it out now but I also can't rule out a secret Hillary vote lurking in Republican households.

[ReplayRandall]

There was no evidence of it in the primaries. I can't rule it out now but I also can't rule out a secret Hillary vote lurking in Republican households.

I'll rule it out for you....What a crock of crap Don, it's completely the other way around. Pour me a double-shot of whatever you're drinking, and make it neat..:cool:

[_______]

The hidden Trump voter meme has been around since the primaries. If you look at his polls during the primaries and then look at his vote total, he underperformed polls in more states than he outperformed them.

So where were the hidden Trump voters then? What makes you so sure about them now?

I'm already on record as saying he'll underperform whatever his final polling average winds up at. That's just a function of Democrats having invested in GOTV and Trump ignoring it. I don't believe there are enough hidden Trump voters (if any) to overcome that self inflicted wound.

[ReplayRandall]

The hidden Trump voter meme has been around since the primaries. If you look at his polls during the primaries and then look at his vote total, he underperformed polls in more states than he outperformed them.

So where were the hidden Trump voters then? What makes you so sure about them now?

I'm already on record as saying he'll underperform whatever his final polling average winds up at. That's just a function of Democrats having invested in GOTV and Trump ignoring it. I don't believe there are enough hidden Trump voters (if any) to overcome that self inflicted wound.

That was an underperforming post you just gave there. Give it a rest, you're out of the loop, and you haven't a clue.....What you've seen today is just the start of the avalanche that buries Hillary, mark my words.

[_______]

I said earlier when Trump was -700 that he was like a short term option with almost nothing but time value left and I would be inclined to invest in him.

I'd sell now and book the profit.

[Fager Fan]

Trump will get a lower percentage of the black vote than the last Republican to run against the first black president. He'll also get a lower percentage of the Hispanic vote.

Those aren't all that shocking considering the racially tinged campaign he has run.

The fact that he'll do worse than Romney with white voters is what I think the headline should be.

You're one stubborn coot.

[ElKabong]

That was an underperforming post you just gave there. Give it a rest, you're out of the loop, and you haven't a clue.....What you've seen today is just the start of the avalanche that buries Hillary, mark my words.


Assange said today that next weeks emails are the ones that will lead to an indictment.

I'm digging this. Hoping the pubbies emails are released as as well at some point. The system needs a purge

[Fager Fan]

That was an underperforming post you just gave there. Give it a rest, you're out of the loop, and you haven't a clue.....What you've seen today is just the start of the avalanche that buries Hillary, mark my words.

He knows he's got a heaping bowl of crow - hot, stinking crow - heading his way, but he's too stubborn to admit it.

[Fager Fan]

Assange said today that next weeks emails are the ones that will lead to an indictment.

I'm digging this. Hoping the pubbies emails are released as as well at some point. The system needs a purge

It's so weird to me that Assange is my hero, yet he is. Whoever shines the light on gov corruption is my hero.

[_______]

He knows he's got a heaping bowl of crow - hot, stinking crow - heading his way, but he's too stubborn to admit it.

It's odd how personal this is to you.

[chadk66]

I don't believe any of the polls in regards to Trumps black vote. Have you seen how many blacks have came out on national TV primping Trump. Never seen that for an R in the past ten election cycles if ever.

[Tom]

if a spouse or child lives in a democratic household and they want to keep living there are they gonna tell mom or dad or each other they're voting for Trump?

Could they be voting for trump in secret and telling their relatives 'yay Hillary.'?

Lots of millennials want to protect their basement lofts.

[Tom]

I don't believe any of the polls in regards to Trumps black vote. Have you seen how many blacks have came out on national TV primping Trump. Never seen that for an R in the past ten election cycles if ever.

Guess they are happy living in Baltimore, Chicago, Ferguson........c'est live.
People who keep voting democrat deserve the lives they lead.

[Tom]

It's so weird to me that Assange is my hero, yet he is. Whoever shines the light on gov corruption is my hero.

One think history has taught us is that NO government is ever any damn good for the people. None can be trusted, period.

We need people like Julian and we need term limits.
We cannot allow the government not have ANY secrets and we can not allow the branches of government to ferment. Both houses must be 100% turned over every 6 years, and the WH every 4. The court must be turned over, too. 1o year term, then out with the trash.

The government cannot represent the people when it is allowed to fester.
ALL elected officials become corrupt faster than fish spoils.

[Fager Fan]

It's odd how personal this is to you.

Odd that I can't wait to serve crow to someone who is so arrogant in his postings? I don't think that's odd at all.

[chadk66]

Odd that I can't wait to serve crow to someone who is so arrogant in his postings? I don't think that's odd at all.there's no cure for libtard

[EasyGoer89]

I don't believe any of the polls in regards to Trumps black vote. Have you seen how many blacks have came out on national TV primping Trump. Never seen that for an R in the past ten election cycles if ever.

There's been a lot of passion from Trump towards the AA community and specifically the inner cities, the things he's saying are getting the inner cities excited.

Donald Trump will be the first black president!

[Steve 'StatMan']

Assange said today that next weeks emails are the ones that will lead to an indictment.

I'm digging this. Hoping the pubbies emails are released as as well at some point. The system needs a purge

I hope so. Wish they wouldn't wait another week, with all the advance voting allowed.

[FantasticDan]

Odd that I can't wait to serve crow to someone who is so arrogant in his postings?"Arrogant" meaning a college professor trying to lecture 4th graders, right? :p

[Tom]

A lot of college professors don't have the common sense of 4th graders.

[PaceAdvantage]

Trump will get a lower percentage of the black vote than the last Republican to run against the first black president.I'll take a bet against the above.

[_______]

I'll take a bet against the above.

Fair enough. I plan starting a prediction thread next Monday or joining in one if someone beats me to it. We can compare notes after the election.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

The last Missouri poll had Trump 14 points ahead -- not that I care about polls. I'm just sayin'

[PaceAdvantage]

Fair enough. I plan starting a prediction thread next Monday or joining in one if someone beats me to it. We can compare notes after the election.Wait, are you talking about percentage of black votes nationwide or just Missouri?

[_______]

Wait, are you talking about percentage of black votes nationwide or just Missouri?

Nationwide. The conversation about Missouri started afterwards.

[Tom]

Black voter turnout looking to be much lighter than expected.
White females, no college strongly favoring Trump.

DNC assumptions in the toilet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nationwide. The conversation about Missouri started afterwards.OK, then my play against stands.

No way Trump gets a lower percentage of the black vote nationwide than Romney did. Absolutely without a doubt no way. I would be shocked beyond shocked if that happened.

I guarantee Trump gets 8% or higher of the black vote on Tuesday.

Hell, I just read that Trump currently has the same support among WOMEN as Romney did at this point...WOMEN...you know, that group that supposedly despises all that Trump is and stands for and was fleeing him like the plague (that's what we were told, anyway).

[_______]

OK, then my play against stands.

No way Trump gets a lower percentage of the black vote nationwide than Romney did. Absolutely without a doubt no way. I would be shocked beyond shocked if that happened.

I guarantee Trump gets 8% or higher of the black vote on Tuesday.

Hell, I just read that Trump currently has the same support among WOMEN as Romney did at this point...WOMEN...you know, that group that supposedly despises all that Trump is and stands for and was fleeing him like the plague (that's what we were told, anyway).

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

You only need to beat 6%. I also intend to include women in the groups where I think Trump will underperform Romney so you'll have a shot at that one. Registered Republicans and Hispanics are the other two. Non-Hispanic White was one I predicted earlier that threw reckless into a tizzy and although it seems less likely now, I feel obligated to stand by a prediction even if the polls have now moved against it.

It'll be fun to see how this all settles out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, the source I read said Romney got 7% of black support in 2012, so that's why I said 8% or higher.

If you want to make it even tastier for me and drop it to 7% or higher, even better....

[reckless]

Tizzy? :lol: :lol: __________ come on, you could do better than that. At least Saratoga_Mike called me stupid and a zenophobe -- or was it nativist? :lol:

It's really, really no big deal but I have been the lone poster that actually kept his wits this entire primary/election season, starting last summer.

You anti-Trump guys were the ones that got unhinged, despite the dozens and dozens of reasons I gave you all on why Trump would be a primary winner, then the GOP nominee, then, that he was a mortal lock to win this.

You and others never cared to talk about the issues/reasons. I even pleaded with many of you guys that you needed to up your game if you wanted to dismiss Trump. No one wanted to debate or engage me on this matter, just re-belch the naive and silly TV analysis that Trump can't win because his hair sucked, or he was loud, or that women hated him.... silly insignificant stuff. None of you guys really upped your game, which I found to be disappointing.

I tried to help. But it's hard to educate people that know everything. That's why I play the horses and invest in the stock market.... two places where there are many people out there that simply know every thing. Oh, I said enough.... I just might get myself in a tizzy. :lol: :lol:

[_______]

Well, the source I read said Romney got 7% of black support in 2012, so that's why I said 8% or higher.

If you want to make it even tastier for me and drop it to 7% or higher, even better....

The problem is that these are all exit polls so it can vary depending on the sample. No one lists race on their voter registration and everyone's individual vote is secret.

I'll be happy to use Roper's 2012 numbers as the baseline for my predictions.

If I were to put confidence levels on these I'd list registered Republican's, Hispanics, and Women as slam dunk underperformances. Black's just under that and Non-Hispanic Whites far below.

I'll also use the 2012 electoral map as a baseline and list state changes I expect this year.

[_______]

Tizzy? :lol: :lol: __________ come on, you could do better than that. At least Saratoga_Mike called me stupid and a zenophobe -- or was it nativist? :lol:

It's really, really no big deal but I have been the lone poster that actually kept his wits this entire primary/election season, starting last summer.

You anti-Trump guys were the ones that got unhinged, despite the dozens and dozens of reasons I gave you all on why Trump would be a primary winner, then the GOP nominee, then, that he was a mortal lock to win this.

You and others never cared to talk about the issues/reasons. I even pleaded with many of you guys that you needed to up your game if you wanted to dismiss Trump. No one wanted to debate or engage me on this matter, just re-belch the naive and silly TV analysis that Trump can't win because his hair sucked, or he was loud, or that women hated him.... silly insignificant stuff. None of you guys really upped your game, which I found to be disappointing.

I tried to help. But it's hard to educate people that know everything. That's why I play the horses and invest in the stock market.... two places where there are many people out there that simply know every thing. Oh, I said enough.... I just might get myself in a tizzy. :lol: :lol:

I'm in Gilead at a net cost of $93/share and happy to wait so I understand.

And let this confirmed racist wish my stupid xenophobic friend nothing but the best.

But I'd buy some alka-seltzer for next Tuesday night if I were you :cool:

[ElKabong]

Well, the source I read said Romney got 7% of black support in 2012, so that's why I said 8% or higher.

If you want to make it even tastier for me and drop it to 7% or higher, even better....

More to the point of reality, the early black vote is way down from 2012 according the cable networks reporting. The black vote could go to 95% clinton and still be far less influential than the past two elections.

[barn32]

Odd that I can't wait to serve crow to someone who is so arrogant in his postings? I don't think that's odd at all.Pot, kettle, black much?

[PaceAdvantage]

More to the point of reality, the early black vote is way down from 2012 according the cable networks reporting. The black vote could go to 95% clinton and still be far less influential than the past two elections.I have it on very good authority (myself...lol) that Trump is going to pick up a surprisingly large percentage of the black vote. I wish I could bet a lot of money on this proposition, that's how strongly I feel about it...

[woodtoo]

I have it on very good authority (myself...lol) that Trump is going to pick up a surprisingly large percentage of the black vote. I wish I could bet a lot of money on this proposition, that's how strongly I feel about it...
I agree this is a breaking point year for blacks, after 8 painful years of Ozero
and their going to hand all their hopes and votes to CHC, I don't think so.
Brazile type disappointment coming.

[reckless]

I'm in Gilead at a net cost of $93/share and happy to wait so I understand.

And let this confirmed racist wish my stupid xenophobic friend nothing but the best.

But I'd buy some alka-seltzer for next Tuesday night if I were you :cool:

I did go shopping for Tuesday night ... I bought a couple of more bottles of champagne! :)

I also put my money where my big mouth is and bought some Gilead on Wednesday at about $74. I have enough shares to retire to a place with a nice view -- either that or the best room in the poor house.

My very first block was bought at $87.50 a few years back. I miss it when it first hit $85 and waited until it came down near that price. Sold some of that at $100 or so to pick up some Apple when all the headline news about Apple was loud -- and wrong. Then starting in January this year I again began buying every few months. I mentioned it in the financial thread, remember? I also mentioned ADT and Apple, and both have been great, with GILD down. This is everyone's last chance to accumulate a nice tidy position at fire sale prices. I am sure of it.

My Gilead avg. is now about $76 or so. In 5 years I'll sell half at $250 and then buy some land in Hawaii. :lol:

I do truly believe it is the cheapest major company in the world and the buy of the century, hyperbole aside, of course. :)

[reckless]

I have it on very good authority (myself...lol) that Trump is going to pick up a surprisingly large percentage of the black vote. I wish I could bet a lot of money on this proposition, that's how strongly I feel about it...

I think getting 15 per cent -- double Romney -- is the minimum vote Trump gets in the Black community.

Sissy white liberals and compromised RINO phonys might say Trump is too loud, crude and too rude, but black people hear someone that says what's needed to be said.

Blacks believe Trump when he says -- out loud and unafraid -- that Democrats/Hillary have lied to them for 40 years and took their vote for granted. Blacks know the score much better than liberals that say they know what's best for black folk.

His message to them and his plea for their vote has resonated, for sure.

[ElKabong]

I have it on very good authority (myself...lol) that Trump is going to pick up a surprisingly large percentage of the black vote. I wish I could bet a lot of money on this proposition, that's how strongly I feel about it...

It's been funny watching Barry's speeches the past two days, giving that southern preacher routine. Begging young voters and blacks to vote... And vote Today

He's scared shitless. Why, I have no idea other than it looks bad on him to leave a flaming bag of poo on the White House doorstep after his eight lousy, incompetent years...but deep down I think he couldn't care less.

[Tom]

Ass-Hat Barry says men are sexist for not supporting Hillary.
But when they supported HIM, I guess it was different.

Seriously, what a useless POS this Kenyan pile of Krap is.
There has never more a more worthless, un-American president then he has been. He disgraces the office.

[mostpost]

if a spouse or child lives in a democratic household and they want to keep living there are they gonna tell mom or dad or each other they're voting for Trump?

Could they be voting for trump in secret and telling their relatives 'yay Hillary.'?
If a person is embarrassed to be voting for a candidate, then why are they voting for that candidate. Apparently you would throw your wife out if she voted for Hillary. Seems like a win/win for her.