View Full Version : The Big Bankroll Building Challenge
And we all can play. All you need is a strategy and a commitment to discipline and your small bankroll, which you will turn into a big bankroll. If you've got that covered, feel free to add your running story to the thread if you'd like.
We are starting small whatever that means to you - for me, just under $100 - and building it into a very large bankroll, whatever that means to you. Our primary goal is to not lose the starting bankroll. Our stretch goal is to grow our starting bankroll.
Background: I was looking back through my old posts just for fun and found this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=618692&postcount=189
The quoted post was and is generally the way I approach horse racing. I failed at that time, but I've continued to believe in my core theories. I knew that I had some critical missing pieces to the puzzle in my software due to lack of programming ability and time. I've now fixed those and tweaked a few other things, and I feel like if I am going to be successful, it's now or never.
My method: I've hacked together an excell/VBA based software package that is essentially a black box. I run my software on the tracks that are running once scratches are available, and place Win, Place and/or Show bets on the horses that it tells me to bet. I'm betting 2% of daily starting bankroll. I seek value in my approach, not in an individual horse. Been there, failed at that.
I placed my first wager using my strategy on September 18th. I am now up to 247 wagers total: 70 Place wagers for a 10cent loss, 127 Place wagers for a $33.20 win and 50 Win wagers for a $5.20 win.
Obviously, my sample is far too small to draw any conclusions. My hope is that I can grow my bankroll to a point where I can afford to place EX and TRI wagers, should the data I'm tracking on those bets prove to have promise once I reach that point.
I am adding new tracks to my software as they open. By this time next year, I should have all U.S. thoroughbred tracks in operation, or none:eek:
Off we go!
FakeNameChanged
10-28-2016, 05:48 PM
Very cool thread. Am I to understand you're doing WPS bets only, depending on the odds? For example: Win only on odds >=5/2, Place on >=6/1, & Show on >=15/1. Just picked target odds I've used in the past. Reading your initial post, discipline in sticking to a plan is paramount, and my hardness hurdle to leap.
Very cool thread. Am I to understand you're doing WPS bets only, depending on the odds? For example: Win only on odds >=5/2, Place on >=6/1, & Show on >=15/1. Just picked target odds I've used in the past. Reading your initial post, discipline in sticking to a plan is paramount, and my hardness hurdle to leap.
I pay no attention to odds. My attempt was to develop a handicapping methodology that will on average select overlays, even though wagering on underlays a certain percentage of the time is unavoidable.
Currently, I'm making only WPS bets (not necessarily all three - most of my bets have been Place bets), but I hope to add EX and TRI wagers in the future.
thaskalos
10-28-2016, 09:51 PM
And we all can play. All you need is a strategy and a commitment to discipline and your small bankroll, which you will turn into a big bankroll. If you've got that covered, feel free to add your running story to the thread if you'd like.
We are starting small whatever that means to you - for me, just under $100 - and building it into a very large bankroll, whatever that means to you. Our primary goal is to not lose the starting bankroll. Our stretch goal is to grow our starting bankroll.
Background: I was looking back through my old posts just for fun and found this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=618692&postcount=189
The quoted post was and is generally the way I approach horse racing. I failed at that time, but I've continued to believe in my core theories. I knew that I had some critical missing pieces to the puzzle in my software due to lack of programming ability and time. I've now fixed those and tweaked a few other things, and I feel like if I am going to be successful, it's now or never.
My method: I've hacked together an excell/VBA based software package that is essentially a black box. I run my software on the tracks that are running once scratches are available, and place Win, Place and/or Show bets on the horses that it tells me to bet. I'm betting 2% of daily starting bankroll. I seek value in my approach, not in an individual horse. Been there, failed at that.
I placed my first wager using my strategy on September 18th. I am now up to 247 wagers total: 70 Place wagers for a 10cent loss, 127 Place wagers for a $33.20 win and 50 Win wagers for a $5.20 win.
Obviously, my sample is far too small to draw any conclusions. My hope is that I can grow my bankroll to a point where I can afford to place EX and TRI wagers, should the data I'm tracking on those bets prove to have promise once I reach that point.
I am adding new tracks to my software as they open. By this time next year, I should have all U.S. thoroughbred tracks in operation, or none:eek:
Off we go!
IMO...the betting unit should fluctuate in accordance with the difficulty of the particular wager. 2% of bankroll is the right amount for win-bets, but the place-bets carry a much lesser risk...and the show-bets, even more so. If we are going to recalculate our bet after every play...then I think that 2% for win, 3% for place, and 4% for show would be a better alternative.
And, when it comes time to include exactas and trifectas in our "portfolio"...then a 2% of bankroll betting unit would be very excessive.
IMO...the betting unit should fluctuate in accordance with the difficulty of the particular wager. 2% of bankroll is the right amount for win-bets, but the place-bets carry a much lesser risk...and the show-bets, even more so. If we are going to recalculate our bet after every play...then I think that 2% for win, 3% for place, and 4% for show would be a better alternative.
And, when it comes time to include exactas and trifectas in our "portfolio"...then a 2% of bankroll betting unit would be very excessive.
That's a very good point on the place and show wagers. I am recalculating on a daily basis, but those should still be good percentages. If the bankroll slips down to an uncomfortable level, I still have time to reduce the wagers.
EX and TRI definitely will be a lower percent of bankroll.
Thanks for the input!
Not a great day of wagering today, but the results on unbet races yielded a few new bet opportunities going forward. That I guess is a net long term positive. Hopefully.
thaskalos
10-29-2016, 04:11 AM
That's a very good point on the place and show wagers. I am recalculating on a daily basis, but those should still be good percentages. If the bankroll slips down to an uncomfortable level, I still have time to reduce the wagers.
EX and TRI definitely will be a lower percent of bankroll.
Thanks for the input!
Not a great day of wagering today, but the results on unbet races yielded a few new bet opportunities going forward. That I guess is a net long term positive. Hopefully.
To show you how inspired I have become by your undertaking here, I have set up a small bankroll of my own...to track a promising new twist of a method that I created not too long ago. If things go well...expect a "finder's fee" to come your way. :)
FakeNameChanged
10-29-2016, 05:16 AM
To show you how inspired I have become by your undertaking here, I have set up a small bankroll of my own...to track a promising new twist of a method that I created not too long ago. If things go well...expect a "finder's fee" to come your way. :)
Great comments Thaskalos. I've never considered your percentage ideas on place and show bets, much less exotics. In my case, I'm trying to abandon(mostly) exactas which sap too much out of my bankroll. One exception for me is coupling a strong favorite with my pick as a saver. But overall, I p_xx away too much money on exactas. I'm always amazed when these odds-on favorites will all the figs get beat. I'm thinking of setting up a separate bankroll to do the same. It looks like I've found an edge on certain class of race. It's interesting to hear that the OP had similar discipline problems that plague me.
To show you how inspired I have become by your undertaking here, I have set up a small bankroll of my own...to track a promising new twist of a method that I created not too long ago. If things go well...expect a "finder's fee" to come your way. :)
Good luck! Finding new promising opportunities is so much fun. When one of my tracking numbers turns from black to green, I feel like I just won something:lol:
Bummer! Keeneland has been very good to me, but no wagers on closing day. I don't have my minimum required sample size for dirt routes, but I sure would like a bet on the :8: in the 9th race. Next meet...
It feels like I'll be transitioning over the next couple of weeks, from betting tracks that I've barely collected minimum samples on to setting up new tracks with new meets. I look forward to having all of the new tracks set up in my little system. The setting up is not much fun, and it takes at least several weeks to collect data sufficient to pick out promising wagering opportunities.
As expected, as soon as I posted this thread I took a gigantic hit and lost 21 of my next 25 wagers, and the winners were small enough they barely matter:( Oh well, that's gambling. The losing streak brought my net down to about break-even, maybe just a little below. I have since recovered a bit to post a small $7.50 gain on 304 total bets.
I thought more about increasing the size of my place and show wagers, and decided against. On the one hand, I can increase the size of the wagers since my hit rate will obviously be higher, reducing risk of loss. On the other hand, if I stick with a lower wager, I am reducing risk of loss in a real, tangible way, while taking a lesser return as the offset. Since my main goal is to not go broke, I've opted to stick with my minimum wager size for these bets.
Related to that, I think 2% of bankroll is too much for a win bet for me. Since I am trusting my program to pick my wagers for me, I waive the right to skip races and/or wagers on horses that I would toss without even thinking about it if I looked at the form. Much of my losing streak was due to wagers on 20/1+ shots that had absolutely no chance, but they slipped through my code. I had a wave of those.
Once the dust settles and I've finished with the basics, I'll be able to go back and see if I can program these losers out of my system, but until then, I'll have to live with them as an expense of black boxing, and hope the rest of the wagers can overcome these guaranteed losses. All that said, I think I'll keep my win bets at 1% of bankroll once (and if) it grows to where I have that flexibility.
ultracapper
11-04-2016, 02:44 PM
As expected, as soon as I posted this thread I took a gigantic hit and lost 21 of my next 25 wagers, and the winners were small enough they barely matter:( Oh well, that's gambling. The losing streak brought my net down to about break-even, maybe just a little below. I have since recovered a bit to post a small $7.50 gain on 304 total bets.
I thought more about increasing the size of my place and show wagers, and decided against. On the one hand, I can increase the size of the wagers since my hit rate will obviously be higher, reducing risk of loss. On the other hand, if I stick with a lower wager, I am reducing risk of loss in a real, tangible way, while taking a lesser return as the offset. Since my main goal is to not go broke, I've opted to stick with my minimum wager size for these bets.
Related to that, I think 2% of bankroll is too much for a win bet for me. Since I am trusting my program to pick my wagers for me, I waive the right to skip races and/or wagers on horses that I would toss without even thinking about it if I looked at the form. Much of my losing streak was due to wagers on 20/1+ shots that had absolutely no chance, but they slipped through my code. I had a wave of those.
Once the dust settles and I've finished with the basics, I'll be able to go back and see if I can program these losers out of my system, but until then, I'll have to live with them as an expense of black boxing, and hope the rest of the wagers can overcome these guaranteed losses. All that said, I think I'll keep my win bets at 1% of bankroll once (and if) it grows to where I have that flexibility.
Not good!!! Change that goal right now. Defensive gambling is losing gambling, particularly at the track. And you really should reconsider the escalation clause in your risk assessment model as Thask suggested. The best way to avoid going bankrupt is to build.
Go forward young man, and don't look back. Put $0 in your rear view mirror.
Not good!!! Change that goal right now. Defensive gambling is losing gambling, particularly at the track. And you really should reconsider the escalation clause in your risk assessment model as Thask suggested. The best way to avoid going bankrupt is to build.
Go forward young man, and don't look back. Put $0 in your rear view mirror.
I don't disagree with that strategy at all, assuming I have a profitable handicapping model. I don't know that. Step 1 is to prove the model, which I'm assuming to be 2,000 wagers. At that point, I'll know roughly what my ROI/winning percentages are, and I can size wagers appropriately. As of now, I may be losing. I have no idea. The sample sizes I'm using to even decide to start tracking each wager is actually too small by miles, but $2 a pop isn't going to kill me if I'm making bad bets.
That said, I could do all of this without even wagering since I make no decisions. I don't even look at the bets before I make them, so no emotion comes into play.
I'm in no hurry. If I'm making money after 2,000 wagers, I'll start trying to maximize my winnings. I'm 325 wagers in and up about $27.50.
Wow, been brutal since my last update. Through 370 wagers, now down about $35. I think I had maybe 3 or 4 winners in the last 45 bets.
I'm going to have to reset things over the next couple of weeks. There is what I think will be a very key factor missing in my work so far, due to sample size. I needed to build up the race numbers before I could use it. It has to do with expected race shape, and breaking out races of different shapes and treating each separately from the others. To date, all race shapes have been lumped into one bucket, which is somewhat like treating grass and dirt as if there is no difference.
So, I am doing the work of changing code and spreadsheets to account for the new data, and I'll start my 2,000 wager count over once it is done.
As for what I've done so far, I consider it a success. First, the software is working without major bugs. That's a miracle :lol:
Second, my little bankroll survived, even if smaller than I started. I pretty much expected a small loss since I am wagering on sub-optimal sample sizes across the board. I knew that I'd be making bad wagers in spots, and not making good wagers in other spots. Having less than a 5% net loss through almost 400 wagers is not bad, considering.
This update to my little system is the last major one that I have in mind at this time, so I fully expect to make the changes and wager 2,000 times to see what happens. I'll be expecting a small loss again, since I'll actually be backtracking on sample size again. But, assuming I survive the 2,000 wagers, I hope to move into positive territory from there.
green80
11-17-2016, 01:05 PM
I would be willing to bet that if you go back and check your wagers that you will be money ahead betting the same amount to win as you would on win/place or wps. A $6 win bet instead of $2 WPS. You won't collect as often but when you do it will usually be more. Every time I have checked this over the term of 100+ bets, the win only wager usually has the highest ROI.
I would be willing to bet that if you go back and check your wagers that you will be money ahead betting the same amount to win as you would on win/place or wps. A $6 win bet instead of $2 WPS. You won't collect as often but when you do it will usually be more. Every time I have checked this over the term of 100+ bets, the win only wager usually has the highest ROI.
I do keep track of this in a pivot table. So far, place wagers have consistently been best ROI and show wagers worst.
I should note that I am not necessarily making all three wagers on a race. I let the numbers dictate. Some races are win only, others place only, some w/s, etc.
Alrighty then, phase 1 is in the books. The basic system is tested as far as I care to take it, and I've just finished inserting my last major component.
And now, a tip for all of you who are in the midst of a brutal losing streak. I suggest a $2 WPS bet on a horse that returns about $95. works like a charm! Phase 1 finished with 395 wagers and a profit of $61.70. Special thanks to the :4: horse in the seventh at Remington Park on Friday. Couldn't have done it without ya!:ThmbUp:
So now, I'm resetting at zero and a $200 starting bankroll for 2,000 wagers using my full blown system. I'm going to stick with wagers equaling 1% of bankroll, or $2, whichever is higher. At the end of the test, if I show a profit, I'll rework the wager amounts. I have no idea how long this will take, but I'm guessing better than a year. More and more wagering opportunities should arise as sample sizes grow, but it is also possible that most are a dry hole in the end. Time will tell.
Anybody ever chart your wagers? I really like creating charts as a visual way of evaluating my work. I use them for poker and trading activities, and thought it may be interesting/useful to look at a chart of my horse playing as well. It is pretty easy for me to get caught up in where I am now, but a chart shows visually how I got here.
This is a chart of the "Phase 1" test of my black box. This test was only 397 wagers, but it is interesting how I rolled around just above break even on average until one big score.
I'd love to think this is what I can expect - break even for a while, hit a big number and break even from there, rinse and repeat. I doubt it will be that easy.:)
pondman
12-02-2016, 08:11 PM
Can you throw in a linear regression line?
pondman
12-02-2016, 08:50 PM
I've been utilizing graphs in handicapping since the 80s. From a glance your handicapping needs some work. I'd be more than happy to give you a few suggestions on a method that would have a more upwards possibility-- playing single win bets in New York comes to mind.
timtam
12-03-2016, 02:01 AM
Pondman,
How about giving the rest of us a few suggestions ? :) .
I play the winter meet at Aqueduct and also play single horses. Might be a
nugget there for some of us.
Can you throw in a linear regression line?
Interesting suggestion. This is excel, and I haven't ever tried it, but I'll try to look into it this weekend if I have time.
FakeNameChanged
12-03-2016, 05:58 AM
Anybody ever chart your wagers? I really like creating charts as a visual way of evaluating my work. I use them for poker and trading activities, and thought it may be interesting/useful to look at a chart of my horse playing as well. It is pretty easy for me to get caught up in where I am now, but a chart shows visually how I got here.
This is a chart of the "Phase 1" test of my black box. This test was only 397 wagers, but it is interesting how I rolled around just above break even on average until one big score.
I'd love to think this is what I can expect - break even for a while, hit a big number and break even from there, rinse and repeat. I doubt it will be that easy.:)
2low, How large were your test bets around the 375 mark? You went from roughly -$30,000 to a plus 70,000 in a few or even one bet. That's a huge swing. The thing to consider if you're live, would you have the stomach to continue when you're 40,000 DOWN? With a half mil, or one mil bankroll, it probably wouldn't bother you. I thought you said these were flat bets or pct. of bankroll, but those wild swings look like some form of increasing bet size.
2low, How large were your test bets around the 375 mark? You went from roughly -$30,000 to a plus 70,000 in a few or even one bet. That's a huge swing. The thing to consider if you're live, would you have the stomach to continue when you're 40,000 DOWN? With a half mil, or one mil bankroll, it probably wouldn't bother you. I thought you said these were flat bets or pct. of bankroll, but those wild swings look like some form of increasing bet size.
These were all $2 bets. I went from down $30 to up about $70. Most of it was one horse that paid a total of about $95 for a $2 WPS bet.
Stomach won't be a problem if this succeeds and I am able to build. If I am good at anything, it is thinking about money properly with regards to gambling. It isn't money to me while in the bankroll, it is betting units. A semi-pro poker career has taught me plenty about that. You simply can't be good at poker if you think about how much money you have to call instead of how many betting units you have to call relative to the pot and stacks. Being properly bankrolled allows proper thinking and proper action. It can't be different in horse racing.
I've got my new chart set up to track betting units instead of dollars, so I'll be comparing apples to apples if I am able to increase bet size during my 2,000 bet test.
Speaking of my 2,000 bet test, as I expected, this is off to a very slow start in terms of wagering activity. When I added my last factor, the first impact was to drive my sample size down to a point where I simply don't have enough races booked to bet at most track/surface/distance combinations. Plus, established tracks are closing up shop for the winter while new winter tracks are coming on line. It takes time to log the races necessary to identify wagering opportunities.
One reason it takes a while is that I toss out the biggest winner in each bucket, and consider it a loser. Then, with the rest I need to see a minimum net profit excluding the tossed winner. My hope is that this will cut down on the number of wagers I make on false positive opportunities.
Had I not tossed the largest winners, I would have probably 4x or 5x the number of bets available. However, if they are real opportunities, they will eventually catch up without the biggest winners.
FakeNameChanged
12-03-2016, 04:49 PM
These were all $2 bets. I went from down $30 to up about $70. Most of it was one horse that paid a total of about $95 for a $2 WPS bet.
Stomach won't be a problem if this succeeds and I am able to build. If I am good at anything, it is thinking about money properly with regards to gambling. It isn't money to me while in the bankroll, it is betting units. A semi-pro poker career has taught me plenty about that. You simply can't be good at poker if you think about how much money you have to call instead of how many betting units you have to call relative to the pot and stacks. Being properly bankrolled allows proper thinking and proper action. It can't be different in horse racing.
I've got my new chart set up to track betting units instead of dollars, so I'll be comparing apples to apples if I am able to increase bet size during my 2,000 bet test.
Haha, sorry on my phone, I didn't see a decimal . Thought it was 20000. No TUMS needed.
ultracapper
12-03-2016, 07:24 PM
This is an interesting thread. Thanks for including the board.
overthehill
12-03-2016, 07:42 PM
for what its worth. I think there are a lot of factors that go in to bet sizing.
and i dont think its a one size fits all thing at all. I remember one day years ago I lost 8% of my bankroll and it really bummed me out. I thought i had some really good wagers but when all was said and done losing 8% in one day was way too much for me. So the questions would be how many bets do you make on a given day. what do you perceive the likeliho0d of the horse winning and how much of an overlay you perceive it to be. I am curious how you determine your place and show strategy. There was a guy in the parlor the other day and he loved the way a horse looked on the track but the horse was over 50-1 at the time so he bet it $12 to place and $20 to show. the horse won the race at 70-1! this is a guy who sometimes bets $40 cold triples.
for what its worth. I think there are a lot of factors that go in to bet sizing.
and i dont think its a one size fits all thing at all. I remember one day years ago I lost 8% of my bankroll and it really bummed me out. I thought i had some really good wagers but when all was said and done losing 8% in one day was way too much for me. So the questions would be how many bets do you make on a given day. what do you perceive the likeliho0d of the horse winning and how much of an overlay you perceive it to be. I am curious how you determine your place and show strategy. There was a guy in the parlor the other day and he loved the way a horse looked on the track but the horse was over 50-1 at the time so he bet it $12 to place and $20 to show. the horse won the race at 70-1! this is a guy who sometimes bets $40 cold triples.
My strategy is strictly numbers based. My goal is to create a black box that does all the work for me. While I love watching the horses run and while I like looking at the form, what is most intriguing to me is writing a program that can beat the races by itself. I have an interest in math-based gambling games, and I have an interest in coding, even though I have no training and no programming background at all. This marries the two interests perfectly.
My first goal was to write software that actually works, and I did that. It is an on-going effort, but it clearly runs correctly when I push the button. It may be the worst programming language of all time, and a real programmer would vomit if he/she saw my code, but I don't care about any of that.
Goal two is to actually beat the races using my working program. That's what I am testing now, and I'm sure I'll keep tweaking things along the way.
Goal three is to buy an island with a PayPal transfer.
Bet sizing for me at this point is simply betting the minimum until I make money. I am in no rush to make the maximum. If the program works, the money will follow, and bet sizing will increase. At this time, I am betting win, place, and/or show at 1% of total bankroll or $2, whichever is greater. With more data, I may find that I should bet more or less than 1% on any of the three wager types. I am also tracking exacta/trifecta performance and may add those at a later date.
Deciding whether to bet Win, Place or Show is again not my choice. The numbers tell me (well, my software) what to do. If a set of conditions nets at least $12 cumulatively in the win column, I bet win when those conditions arise. For Place, it is $6, and for Show it is $3. This is after the biggest win is assumed to be a loss - just a little more buffer. If those conditions are met, the program spits our a sheet with a wager on it, and I upload it into my ADW account. I have no idea why I am betting, other than the program told me to. I do spot check to make sure my software is following the rules though.
There is no magic to those numbers by the way. I pulled them from my nether regions. But, I think they provide some insurance against bad bets.
This is an interesting thread. Thanks for including the board.
Thanks! Hopefully it will be entertaining and good conversation.
Ug.....the hazards of unique data gathering. And using...
It turns out that the final piece of my puzzle is being used wrong. Instead of using the factor (or whatever you'd call it - it is a calculation) for the current race, my program is grabbing the factor from the previous race and using it against the current race. Obviously, this is a problem, but it is also a big problem. So big in fact, that I'll need to re-run all races for all tracks to get it right. I see no sense in wagering until I get this fixed.
Luckily, it is an easy fix, but it will take a while to get it applied to all tracks. At least there are not too terribly many tracks affected that are running now.
It had no impact on the first test by the way.
rsetup
12-06-2016, 02:26 PM
My strategy is strictly numbers based. My goal is to create a black box that does all the work for me. While I love watching the horses run and while I like looking at the form, what is most intriguing to me is writing a program that can beat the races by itself. I have an interest in math-based gambling games, and I have an interest in coding, even though I have no training and no programming background at all. This marries the two interests perfectly.
You should look into machine learning and training a model to play the way you would (or, more precisely, the way you would if you followed rules you've established, while allowing for intuition). The end result will be your model will become a better handicapper than you. Read up on AlphaGo as inspiration.
You should look into machine learning and training a model to play the way you would (or, more precisely, the way you would if you followed rules you've established, while allowing for intuition). The end result will be your model will become a better handicapper than you. Read up on AlphaGo as inspiration.
Thanks for the reading suggestion! I'll look into it. On the surface, this sounds like what I am attempting, although in a very simple form.
I knew this new calculated factor - along with tracks opening and closing - would have a big negative impact on number of plays available, and it has. While sample sizes continue to grow on the winter tracks, the playable races have yet to surface in volume. I can see lots of potential as races stack up, so hope is alive.
For now, in the 11 racing days since my first bet with my factor fix, I have placed a grand total of 10 bets, 6 of them show bets. I have a net win of 0.95 bets.
Once I get all of the closed tracks up to date with all the latest factors and formulas accounted for, I will start tracking how many bets are available as a percent of total bets being tracked. This number will hopefully grow steadily until it plateaus at a final and reliably consistent level over time.
pondman
12-26-2016, 11:36 AM
If you are trying to solve a problem, such as making money with win bets, then your whole design needs to be focused on that. And personally if you could tell me that you made 500 bets in NY in 2017 and made a profit, then I'd be impressed. At least you would be able to increase profits by increasing the size of your bet.
We collect data for one purpose and that's to make a fortune with supers. And the way the data is stored will allow us to know how well the screens do for win bets. But We'd have to play a combo of sorts and develop other screens to make very little money with win bets, and we don't want to do it that way.
bruin95
12-27-2016, 12:50 AM
And personally if you could tell me that you made 500 bets in NY in 2017 and made a profit, then I'd be impressed.
So would I. That means the guy has a time machine! :eek:
thaskalos
12-27-2016, 04:49 AM
We collect data for one purpose and that's to make a fortune with supers.
This is a big change for you...isn't it, pondman? If I recall correctly...the word "supers" hadn't been mentioned in ANY of your prior 1185 posts here. You were making your fortune with selected win bets before...NO?
pondman
01-09-2017, 04:16 PM
This is a big change for you...isn't it, pondman? If I recall correctly...the word "supers" hadn't been mentioned in ANY of your prior 1185 posts here. You were making your fortune with selected win bets before...NO?
I haven't change anything on the win bets.
But I now have a dynamic super game, that is continually improving on itself. It takes a strict adherence and firm believe in central limit theory. Now I talk in terms of the 3rd & 4th leg of the super. There is no reason anyone need to actually pick a horse to win. It's actually foolish to try and beat the game with a large # of win bets.
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.:p
This time of year is a slow haul. There are not many races to record on a daily basis in any case, let alone sticking each race into one of several buckets. Those buckets are not filling very fast.
I believe in what Pondman is saying relative to win bets. My WPS results so far seem to suggest that if I am profitable, the margins will be very thin and the bankroll swings very large. I feel the need to get vertical:D
thaskalos
01-09-2017, 04:53 PM
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.:p
This time of year is a slow haul. There are not many races to record on a daily basis in any case, let alone sticking each race into one of several buckets. Those buckets are not filling very fast.
I believe in what Pondman is saying relative to win bets. My WPS results so far seem to suggest that if I am profitable, the margins will be very thin and the bankroll swings very large. I feel the need to get vertical :D
Make sure you don't end up HORIZONTAL. :)
pondman
01-09-2017, 06:06 PM
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.:p
:D
I have the belief that a profitable screen, if you have one, for win betting will not produce profitable results for exotics. I'd be careful with the 1,2,3 tri bets (betting your top 3 horses.) I really believe that it requires a healthy attitude of making A,A,6,1 bets (it's the most profitable under my play), and know how your ratings stack up, before you'll make money. You've got to have the math behind how often your top horse loses. You've got to find the right screens to do that. I make serious money with supers, but my win bets, if I used my top horse, similar to everyone else's, would be a marginal loss, with the same screen.
I have the belief that a profitable screen, if you have one, for win betting will not produce profitable results for exotics. I'd be careful with the 1,2,3 tri bets (betting your top 3 horses.) I really believe that it requires a healthy attitude of making A,A,6,1 bets (it's the most profitable under my play), and know how your ratings stack up, before you'll make money. You've got to have the math behind how often your top horse loses. You've got to find the right screens to do that. I make serious money with supers, but my win bets, if I used my top horse, similar to everyone else's, would be a marginal loss, with the same screen.
I see where you are coming from. My system isn't really built around finding a winner. It is built around finding contenders for the top few spots and using those to construct wagers of any kind. From there, I am gathering data that will hopefully tell me which of those contenders should be included in various slots in my vertical wagers or WPS bets on different track/surface/distance/condition races.
pondman
01-09-2017, 07:46 PM
I see where you are coming from. My system isn't really built around finding a winner. It is built around finding contenders for the top few spots and using those to construct wagers of any kind. From there, I am gathering data that will hopefully tell me which of those contenders should be included in various slots in my vertical wagers or WPS bets on different track/surface/distance/condition races.
Are you able to tabulate your system of contenders? And are the results orderly? Can you play for a month, 6 months, year, and have significant similarity between your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th rated choice. Is your 1st rated choice in the money more than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th in order?
Are you able to tabulate your system of contenders? And are the results orderly? Can you play for a month, 6 months, year, and have significant similarity between your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th rated choice. Is your 1st rated choice in the money more than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th in order?
I'm still figuring that out, but yes, I will be able to know whether my results are orderly. Actually, I ran a similar but less robust and targeted version of my software a few years ago and it did have orderly results. I have no reason to expect this version to fail in that respect.
Oh the joys of being an idiot! I realized today that I had faulty logic in my melon that transferred into my code. This is on the EX and TR plays that I was just starting to implement, so hasn't cost me any wasted bets at least.
Hopefully not all of the time I spent is wasted. At least some portion of the very long formulas should translate to the corrected version. I hope to have time this weekend to start the process all over again...
I haven't died:headbanger: And I have new emoticons!
The quest for black box glory (BBG) continues. I have now logged roughly 150 bets each Win, Place and Show with my "current" final version. It's a good news/bad news update.
The good: All three bets are returning results consistent with one another.:)
The bad: All three bets are returning a net loss.:puke: The losses, though, are far better than take-out, at a rounded -6% for each bet, so that's somewhat of a positive. I'm officially break even.:lol:
The future: I am seeing new data within the data, and have refined formulas to capture what I think will be additional goodness to use in the future. I just need to start the f all over again to incorporate it:coffee:
The unknown: Exacta and Trifecta results are bad, but sample sizes are very small and need to be far larger than WPS bets to learn anything I'd think. I do believe that my new data will improve EX and TR bet decisions and structure a whole lot.
I discovered tournaments recently, and have found them to be every bit as awesomely frustrating as win bets. I've been using my new data and discretion to "profit" on my tournament picks had they been live W/P bets, which is good. Data is scant, though, and I eventually have to translate my discretion to code. With any luck, I can stop finishing on the bubble and just lose with no hope in the future, which would arrest my downward trending life expectancy line. Or start winning. That would be just about as good;)
Exotic1
02-22-2017, 04:03 PM
I haven't change anything on the win bets.
But I now have a dynamic super game, that is continually improving on itself. It takes a strict adherence and firm believe in central limit theory. Now I talk in terms of the 3rd & 4th leg of the super. There is no reason anyone need to actually pick a horse to win. It's actually foolish to try and beat the game with a large # of win bets.
Pond,
First this:
"I haven't change anything on the win bets." Meaning you continue to break the bank with Win bets.
Then this:
"It's actually foolish to try and beat the game with a large # of win bets."
Can these two statements live in harmony next to one another?
I'm not understanding your intent.
I haven't died:headbanger: And I have new emoticons!
The quest for black box glory (BBG) continues. I have now logged roughly 150 bets each Win, Place and Show with my "current" final version. It's a good news/bad news update.
The good: All three bets are returning results consistent with one another.:)
The bad: All three bets are returning a net loss.:puke: The losses, though, are far better than take-out, at a rounded -6% for each bet, so that's somewhat of a positive. I'm officially break even.:lol:
The future: I am seeing new data within the data, and have refined formulas to capture what I think will be additional goodness to use in the future. I just need to start the f all over again to incorporate it:coffee:
The unknown: Exacta and Trifecta results are bad, but sample sizes are very small and need to be far larger than WPS bets to learn anything I'd think. I do believe that my new data will improve EX and TR bet decisions and structure a whole lot.
I discovered tournaments recently, and have found them to be every bit as awesomely frustrating as win bets. I've been using my new data and discretion to "profit" on my tournament picks had they been live W/P bets, which is good. Data is scant, though, and I eventually have to translate my discretion to code. With any luck, I can stop finishing on the bubble and just lose with no hope in the future, which would arrest my downward trending life expectancy line. Or start winning. That would be just about as good;)
A little more analysis shows that among my 149 win bets, if I toss out tracks with 10 or fewer bets placed, I have a positive 6% ROI over 111 Win bets. My software "learns" as data grows, in that the sample calculated against becomes more and more meaningful. As the data set grows, more bets will be placed at tracks where my system works, and fewer will be placed at tracks where my system does not work for whatever reason.
So, having positive results with more races played and negative with fewer played seems to make sense, and is encouraging.
Those same tracks show a net +5% ROI on Place bets (66 bets) and a break even (-0.5%) net ROI on 75 Show bets.
Blended W, P, and/or S bets at those tracks show a net +4.1% ROI over 252 wagers.
The remaining tracks with 10 or fewer win bets placed have been absolutely terrible. (0/3, 0/1, 0/4, 0/3, 1/9, 3/6 with a net loss LOL, 0/2 and 2/10). In total, Win bets: 6/38 (-45.5); Place bets: 35/82 (-16.3%); Show bets: 48/82 (-10.5%); Net combined: 89/202 (-19.5%).
I guess maybe I found a bet filter. How's that for manufacturing a win?:cool:
EMD4ME
02-22-2017, 06:21 PM
And we all can play. All you need is a strategy and a commitment to discipline and your small bankroll, which you will turn into a big bankroll. If you've got that covered, feel free to add your running story to the thread if you'd like.
We are starting small whatever that means to you - for me, just under $100 - and building it into a very large bankroll, whatever that means to you. Our primary goal is to not lose the starting bankroll. Our stretch goal is to grow our starting bankroll.
Background: I was looking back through my old posts just for fun and found this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=618692&postcount=189
The quoted post was and is generally the way I approach horse racing. I failed at that time, but I've continued to believe in my core theories. I knew that I had some critical missing pieces to the puzzle in my software due to lack of programming ability and time. I've now fixed those and tweaked a few other things, and I feel like if I am going to be successful, it's now or never.
My method: I've hacked together an excell/VBA based software package that is essentially a black box. I run my software on the tracks that are running once scratches are available, and place Win, Place and/or Show bets on the horses that it tells me to bet. I'm betting 2% of daily starting bankroll. I seek value in my approach, not in an individual horse. Been there, failed at that.
I placed my first wager using my strategy on September 18th. I am now up to 247 wagers total: 70 Place wagers for a 10cent loss, 127 Place wagers for a $33.20 win and 50 Win wagers for a $5.20 win.
Obviously, my sample is far too small to draw any conclusions. My hope is that I can grow my bankroll to a point where I can afford to place EX and TRI wagers, should the data I'm tracking on those bets prove to have promise once I reach that point.
I am adding new tracks to my software as they open. By this time next year, I should have all U.S. thoroughbred tracks in operation, or none:eek:
Off we go!
Mind if I join in? I just read this OP in this thread for the 1st time. Good stuff!
I'll start with a $2,000 bankroll. I'm under the understanding that I can bet whatever, wherever and whoever I want for any amount.
Is that right? Is that ok?
Mind if I join in? I just read this OP in this thread for the 1st time. Good stuff!
I'll start with a $2,000 bankroll. I'm under the understanding that I can bet whatever, wherever and whoever I want for any amount.
Is that right? Is that ok?
Absolutely!
This is all about sharing the experience of (hopefully) turning a profit and growing a bankroll. In a perfect world, we'd have several different methods and examples of how it's done.
For me, mine is a multi-year stop and start non-programmer programming a black box that hasn't proven anything yet. I'm still in the process of determining whether my methods can turn a profit.
That last post reminded me, I guess I busted my bankroll when I started betting exactas and trifectas. However, the stated goal originally was turning a profit with WPS bets, so if I roll back the EX and TR wagers, I stand at $141.90 from a starting bankroll of $200. Including EX and TR wagers, my bankroll is 85 cents:lol:
I'll try not betting the tracks below 11 win wagers as stated a couple posts above and see if this gets better. I'll have to keep monitoring the break point of number of win bets necessary and cut/add tracks as necessary. As my samples grow, I'll start looking at track/distance/surface to see if maybe turf routes, for example, are playable at a certain track even if all other surface/distance races are not. For now, I'm going on the assumption that factors other than surface/distance are more important, such as quality of competition, average field size, etc.
Parson
02-23-2017, 10:12 AM
I hope you don't mind if I jump in, but I started tracking things much better this year and I wish all of my win wagers were as good as these, below is a screen shoot of my win only wagers @ AQU using a small bankroll to start. I hope this continues when they are off the inner track:
Start
01/01/2017
... End
02/22/2017
Download
# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
26 61.54% +0.26 $161.00 $203.35 $+42.35
After doing a little more digging through my data, I've determined that I don't have near enough data to be placing wagers on anything other than fast dirt track races. On the six tracks where dry dirt is returning a profit, I have 198 W,P or S wagers and a net 21.8% ROI. Non-winning tracks show a total of 196 races between 11 tracks. Hopefully that suggests that the losing tracks individually just don't have enough races run for winning percentages to start to normalize, or they are just losing tracks and very few bets will ever show up.
All other surfaces and track conditions are far too few in number to make any sort of a determination on any track, so I'm going to hold off on playing those at all until the samples grow. They are currently losses for what that's worth.
NONE of the dry dirt samples at any one track are huge, but I've got to start somewhere.
FakeNameChanged
02-23-2017, 03:50 PM
That last post reminded me, I guess I busted my bankroll when I started betting exactas and trifectas. However, the stated goal originally was turning a profit with WPS bets, so if I roll back the EX and TR wagers, I stand at $141.90 from a starting bankroll of $200. Including EX and TR wagers, my bankroll is 85 cents:lol:
I'll try not betting the tracks below 11 win wagers as stated a couple posts above and see if this gets better. I'll have to keep monitoring the break point of number of win bets necessary and cut/add tracks as necessary. As my samples grow, I'll start looking at track/distance/surface to see if maybe turf routes, for example, are playable at a certain track even if all other surface/distance races are not. For now, I'm going on the assumption that factors other than surface/distance are more important, such as quality of competition, average field size, etc.Your original premise was good; when designing an experiment- only change one variable at a time to test results. So WPS and show betting was a good start. As you've discovered when entering a 2nd or 3rd variable(exactas/trifectas) mid-stream, they always bite us in the hind quarters. I'm guilty of doing the same, many times.
EMD4ME
02-24-2017, 07:52 AM
3 very different strategies today in a blah NYRA card:
Conservative:
$200 parlay
Race 1 place 2
Race 4 place 5
Race 7 show 7
Looking to just make $200 here. If 1 of them scratches, proceed with other 2. If 2 scratch, forget the play.
A bit non conservative (a pick 5) and later on a series of supers.
Small play in pick 5 as it's the 1st day of the week, don't like card, bias can appear today.
.50 2 with 12345 with 1234 with 5 with 12345678910
Cost $100
.50 2 with 1 (if 1 is running, I don't want the 1A), 4,5, with 1,2, with 5 with 12345678910
Cost $30
Total Bets $330 so far.
Final bets: Race 7
.40 super 678 with 678 with 678 with all Cost $16.80
.90 super 678 with 4678 with 4678 with 4678 Cost $21.60
.50 super boxes 1678, 6789, 5678 and 67810 Cost $48
.40 super 678 with 678 with 678 with 23 Cost $4.80
.20 super 678 with 678 with 23 with 678 Cost $2.40
Total bets: $423.60
As we progress, I'll try and only bet live, so scratches and appropriate costs are measured, biases are measured etc but today I'm a bit busy.
Today is the first time I am wagering against winning data. For the first time, I am expecting to net a win over time instead of just seeing what happens.
I won't keep real-time progress because I have one of those job things. I am usually able to get my wagers in, though, since it takes no time to push a button. But, there are times where my "wagers" are really paper since I can't always put the real wagers through.
For bankroll tracking purposes, I will use only real money wagers. I have topped off to $200 (keeping it small since I only will be betting win, place and show). Off I go!
I had several wagers on AQU today, but that is not a profitable track for me so far, so I punted them. I have WIN on :5: in the first and WPS on :2: in the fifth at GPX.
EMD4ME
02-24-2017, 07:02 PM
3 very different strategies today in a blah NYRA card:
Conservative:
$200 parlay
Race 1 place 2
Race 4 place 5
Race 7 show 7
Looking to just make $200 here. If 1 of them scratches, proceed with other 2. If 2 scratch, forget the play.
A bit non conservative (a pick 5) and later on a series of supers.
Small play in pick 5 as it's the 1st day of the week, don't like card, bias can appear today.
.50 2 with 12345 with 1234 with 5 with 12345678910
Cost $100
.50 2 with 1 (if 1 is running, I don't want the 1A), 4,5, with 1,2, with 5 with 12345678910
Cost $30
Total Bets $330 so far.
Final bets: Race 7
.40 super 678 with 678 with 678 with all Cost $16.80
.90 super 678 with 4678 with 4678 with 4678 Cost $21.60
.50 super boxes 1678, 6789, 5678 and 67810 Cost $48
.40 super 678 with 678 with 678 with 23 Cost $4.80
.20 super 678 with 678 with 23 with 678 Cost $2.40
Total bets: $423.60
As we progress, I'll try and only bet live, so scratches and appropriate costs are measured, biases are measured etc but today I'm a bit busy.
So, all 3 parlay horses won but we were being conservative with 10% of the bankroll and turned $200 into $415.80. PLUS $215.80 on Bet #1.
Pick 5 was chalky as the 3 in race 2 killed our play BUT we salvaged and got back $104.87 on our $130 play (yes I will count the full cost depite the scratch in race 5). I will short change myself here to be nice. I didn't want the 1A (if the 1 scratched), so I will just refund that $10 play instead of counting it as a "move" to the off time chalk, who won.
Our supers cost $93.60. We got back $14.40 from the scratch of the 10 and $49.50 from the winning ticket, so we got back $63.90 for a net loss of $29.70 in the super plays.
Plus $215.80
Minus $25.13
Minus $29.70
Net positive of $160.97 for the day (plus rebates :lol:).
Starting bankroll $2,000
New Bankroll $2,160.97
EMD4ME
02-24-2017, 07:11 PM
I don't know if I will make any plays on here for Saturday as I will be extremely focused on real money play on track. On track sucks as there are just TOO many annoying distractions from focusing on my play.
It's fun to see how the "other half" plays the game. I'm more of a grinder by nature. Same with poker. I always start at the bottom limits and work my way up.
Anyway, I didn't have much happening today. I won my first race at GP and had a short priced WPS horse apparently decide to moonwalk around the course later on the card. I didn't see the race. I did have one other win bet lose by a head at PEN later in the day. Not a great day, but with the prices my software picked out there was no chance to move the needle anyway.
EMD4ME
02-25-2017, 11:09 AM
Feb 25, 2017
Starting bankroll $2,000
New bankroll $2,160.97
Today's plays:
$100 Parlay
Race 4 Show 7
Race 5 Show 7
Then $40 Parlay
Race 4 Show 7
Race 5 Show 7
Race 8 Show 6 and 8. (expect both to hit board but can't choose one-stupid bet if 1 runs out).
Finally: Race 8: .10 super 68 with 68 with 237 with all Cost $4.20
68 with 68 with all with 237 Cost $4.20
68 with 237 with 68 with all Cost $4.20
68 with all with 68 with 237 Cost $4.20
68 with 237 with all with 68 Cost $4.20
68 with all with 237 with 68 Cost $4.20
237 with 68 with 68 with all Cost $4.20
45 with 68 with 68 with 237 Cost $2.40
23678 box Cost $12
$43.80 in supers for race 8.
Total Wagered $183
Good luck !
This could be an interesting morning at GP in the 8th. My software selected the :8: for a win and a show bet. The horse is 30/1 ML, and ordinarily when my software selects a 30/1 ML horse, I hate it, and it is generally because of weirdness that I can't really program out. Just one of those things you have to live with when using no discretion.
However, this time I think the horse actually has a shot. Just on my raw numbers, the horse should have a 60+% chance of hitting the board and a 33ish% chance of winning. Visually, looking at the form, (which I never do except this time I'm also playing a tournament using this race) I don't hate the horse, especially if it goes off at 20/1+. I'm not sure it has as good of a chance as my numbers indicate, but it should be better than the morning line.
I also have W,S bets on the :4: in the Grade 3 12th race. Obviously, this is a much different race than the 8th, but this horse's numbers come out pretty much the same as the pick in that one relative to the field.
So far, I've got a few other plays at TAM and PRX too, but no long shots.
Maximillion
02-25-2017, 02:27 PM
This could be an interesting morning at GP in the 8th. My software selected the :8: for a win and a show bet. The horse is 30/1 ML, and ordinarily when my software selects a 30/1 ML horse, I hate it, and it is generally because of weirdness that I can't really program out. Just one of those things you have to live with when using no discretion.
However, this time I think the horse actually has a shot. Just on my raw numbers, the horse should have a 60+% chance of hitting the board and a 33ish% chance of winning. Visually, looking at the form, (which I never do except this time I'm also playing a tournament using this race) I don't hate the horse, especially if it goes off at 20/1+. I'm not sure it has as good of a chance as my numbers indicate, but it should be better than the morning line.
I also have W,S bets on the :4: in the Grade 3 12th race. Obviously, this is a much different race than the 8th, but this horse's numbers come out pretty much the same as the pick in that one relative to the field.
So far, I've got a few other plays at TAM and PRX too, but no long shots.
I bet Runaway Pepper in his last....just didnt see enough out of him to go forward with the bet again,but could absolutely see him as one of seven heads on the wire it what looks like a wide open race thats up for grabs.
In my opinion, if your software is pointing to price horses like this its a good thing,and really mean it.Good luck.
EMD4ME
02-25-2017, 08:18 PM
0/3 today on plays.
Starting bankroll $2,000
New bankroll: $1,977.97
0/3 today on plays.
Starting bankroll $2,000
New bankroll: $1,977.97
It's going around. I think I was 1/X with a nice loss myself. Looking back through my results, it seems that luck is lumpy - long stretches of the bad and shorter, but more intense stretches of the good. How nice it would be to win 10%/day every day...
Today is Sunday, the day of the week I plan to review all tracks and add/subtract tracks from live wagering. GPX was on the edge, so I may lose that one. I have several that were close to profitable, so I may add tracks too.
EMD4ME
02-26-2017, 05:14 PM
I totally forgot this thread :lol:
In real life I bet
Race 4 WPS 1 (Ran 2nd at double digit odds)
Race 5 place 4 (won)
Race 8 show 3 at 27/1 (ran 2nd)
Race 9 show 3
Too bad I forgot about this thread so.....
1 official play (race) for today.
$100 place 3 AQU race 9.
.30 super 3 / 10 / 12468911 / 12468911 cost $12.60
.10 super 3 / 10 / all / all Cost $7.20
.30 super 3 / 12468911 / 10 / 12468911 Cost $12.60
.10 super 3 / all / 10 / all Cost $7.20
.30 super 3 / 12468911 / 12468911 / 10 Cost $12.60
.10 super 3 / all / all / 10 Cost $7.20
.20 super 10 / 3 / 12468911 / 12468911 Cost $8.40
.10 super 10 / 3 / all / all Cost $7.20
$75 in supers. $100 in Place bets on 3.
Total $175
EMD4ME
02-26-2017, 09:25 PM
0/3 today on plays.
Starting bankroll $2,000
New bankroll: $1,977.97
Minus $175 in the 1 race I remembered to post about.
New bankroll $1,802.97 Starting bankroll, $2,000
My current data set of races wagered started on January 18th, and has 173 wagers through today. So, I guess during winter racing, I can expect roughly 35 wagers per week or so. Win, Place and Show wagers have netted very similar returns.
For this week - stub week of three days betting only select tracks - I lost a little. The bankroll stands at $189.
Tracks removed for next week: Gulfstream Park
Tracks added for next week: None
EMD4ME
02-27-2017, 03:36 PM
Minus $175 in the 1 race I remembered to post about.
New bankroll $1,802.97 Starting bankroll, $2,000
2/27/17
Race 10 Sam Houston $60 win 7. $30 Ex 3-7. $10 Ex 7-3
EMD4ME
02-27-2017, 07:23 PM
2/27/17
Race 10 Sam Houston $60 win 7. $30 Ex 3-7. $10 Ex 7-3
2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).
Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.
$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97
Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.
3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50 :rant::bang:
VigorsTheGrey
02-27-2017, 11:20 PM
2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).
Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.
$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97
Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.
3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50 :rant::bang:
I really like this format...I wish the Andy and David thread could proceed like this..instead of handicapping every race and arriving at a pick....they should post a bank roll with wagering patterns posted so anyone who wanted to could follow along with their betting also....THAT would be a real measure of success....we really need to pick and choose to have any chance of beating this game at all...thanks for posting your picks EMD4ME
menifee
02-28-2017, 12:51 AM
My current data set of races wagered started on January 18th, and has 173 wagers through today. So, I guess during winter racing, I can expect roughly 35 wagers per week or so. Win, Place and Show wagers have netted very similar returns.
For this week - stub week of three days betting only select tracks - I lost a little. The bankroll stands at $189.
Tracks removed for next week: Gulfstream Park
Tracks added for next week: None
Very cool that you are publicizing this. Out of curiosity, are you charting your return on your underlays. Not to be critical, because I admire you for doing this, but I don't see how due to the law of large numbers you could ever be profitable given that your model sometimes bets on underlays and ignores odds.
Very cool that you are publicizing this. Out of curiosity, are you charting your return on your underlays. Not to be critical, because I admire you for doing this, but I don't see how due to the law of large numbers you could ever be profitable given that your model sometimes bets on underlays and ignores odds.
I would argue that that's exactly what I am doing, but just in a different way. Maybe a little backstory...
Several years ago when I started building my software, that's what I was doing. I would run my software and it would select the contenders and the odds I needed to bet them. I lost and lost. I realized that I could never be as good at setting odds on a horse as the blended public opinion on any one horse in any one race. Plus, the odds on my horse would often drop a lot after my bet went through. Also, I couldn't place conditional bets on place and show wagers. Basically, looking for odds just didn't work very well for me. So, I took a long break to regroup. I'm not a gambler. I need to win or I'll quit until I think I have another strategy worth funding. That's what I did. I needed a new outlook.
I thought a lot about odds lines and what they meant to me and what I needed to do in order for them to work for me. I don't and have never doubted the validity of setting a personal odds line, I just don't feel like I'm very good at it relative to the betting public.
But, what I do know is how my top selections perform at every track/surface/distance combination. I know that because I track them religiously. If I can look at a reasonably large sample of races and see that my horse with a certain set of criteria relative to the other horses in the race on average returns a profit at this particular track/surface/distance then my software must be picking a net overlay on average at that track/surface/distance. Boom. I have my odds line. It looks a little different than traditional odds lines, but it works the same way without the guess work.
Hopefully:lol: This is currently a theory, not a law.
EMD4ME
02-28-2017, 06:28 AM
I really like this format...I wish the Andy and David thread could proceed like this..instead of handicapping every race and arriving at a pick....they should post a bank roll with wagering patterns posted so anyone who wanted to could follow along with their betting also....THAT would be a real measure of success....we really need to pick and choose to have any chance of beating this game at all...thanks for posting your picks EMD4ME
Hello Vigors!
Great minds think alike. That may be down the pike in a future thread :)
I'm enjoying a small slump entering March. Let's get this 7 home for the win in the 7th at TAM!! Statistically, my numbers show about a 34% chance of winning. Current odds are 10/1.
I'm enjoying a small slump entering March. Let's get this 7 home for the win in the 7th at TAM!! Statistically, my numbers show about a 34% chance of winning. Current odds are 10/1.
Crap. I forgot about the 66% chance of losing. That always wins.
EMD4ME
03-03-2017, 08:08 PM
2nd a nose (with herding by the terrible 1/9 to hold on).
Bet $100, hit $30 Exacta that paid $9.20, Return of $138, plus $38 for day.
$1,802.97 plus $38 is $1,840.97
Worst part is, in real life had the 3&7 to close a peanut pick 5 play.
3 was paying $700 or so, 7 was paying near $7000 for .50 :rant::bang:
Race 1 SAM HOUSTON TONIGHT:
$50 WIN $100 Place 5.
EMD4ME
03-03-2017, 08:22 PM
$1,840.97
Bet $150, Collected $140 (ran 2nd at $2.80).
New bankroll $1,830.97
Average is anything but a smooth ride.
Prior to this week, I had recorded a total of 541 win, place or show bets for a blended hit rate of 44.4%. These numbers are for all tracks, not just the ones I'm betting real money on.
This week, with one day to go, I've recorded 64 win, place or show bets for a blended hit rate of 29.7%. Brutal. It felt like I couldn't win, and I guess the feeling was right.
Why did I stop looking for value in my wagers horse-by-horse? My selection in the first at Tampa was the 6, with a morning line of 5/2. With a couple minutes to post, it was at 3/1. At post time, it was 2/1. After the race started - and well after a conditional wager would have been canceled - it was 3/2. What's the point of paying attention to odds again? In typical "this week" fashion, the horse was pulled up and my place and show bets hit the dust bin.
Tracks I bet real money on: Prior to this week, 204 win, place or show bets for a 55.4% hit rate and 1.08/1 average odds across all winning bets. This week with one day to go, 10/31 hit rate with 0.59/1 average odds across all winning bets. Yuck!
EMD4ME
03-05-2017, 01:18 PM
$1,840.97
Bet $150, Collected $140 (ran 2nd at $2.80).
New bankroll $1,830.97
$200 place 1 race 2 AQU and $30 to win 1.
jpjpicks
03-05-2017, 02:08 PM
I like this so am going to get in on this starting 3-6-17 but my plays will only be on 4yo an up an only claiming races an i will start with $100 bankroll betting only place an show ...
This should be fun
Jimmy
EMD4ME
03-05-2017, 02:39 PM
$200 place 1 race 2 AQU and $30 to win 1.
$1,830.97
Minus $230 loss is $1,600.97
AQU Race 5. $100 win 8.
jpjpicks
03-05-2017, 03:34 PM
3-6-17 plays
Bankroll $100
Let do Prx race-2/#:7: $5.00 place $20.00 show
Hou race-3/#:4: $5.00 place $20.00 show
-$50.00
$1,830.97
Minus $230 loss is $1,600.97
AQU Race 5. $100 win 8.
That was a tough beat. I had it chalked up for you at least twice during the race!
EMD4ME
03-05-2017, 05:36 PM
That was a tough beat. I had it chalked up for you at least twice during the race!
It's OK. Thankfully, I didnt need the $21,490.:rolleyes:
EMD4ME
03-05-2017, 05:37 PM
$1,830.97
Minus $230 loss is $1,600.97
AQU Race 5. $100 win 8.
It took an insanely stupid and subtly terrible ride to have this horse snatch a loss from the joy of defeat.
New bankroll $1,500.97
I don't know whether my black box will turn a profit in the end, but I did something really fun yesterday. I looked "inside the numbers" that my program spits out on race 8 at Golden Gate Fields, and a longshot stuck out at me as having a really good shot of winning the race. Matter of fact, it was the favorite by about 6 of "my" lengths, which is something other than the measured lengths in the form.
So, I decided to have a little fun and handicap the race using my program's output combined with a little old school pen and paper handicapping that I haven't done in quite some time. I ended up putting together a superfecta bet just for fun.
My longshot was a closer, and close she did. However, a loose horse on the first turn impeded her, and she ended up coming up a few lengths short, finishing a well-run second.
I don't know whether my horse would have won the race with a clean trip, but it was fun watching the race unfold after making my predictions. I'm guessing the 10cent super would have paid between $200 and $300 had the top two swapped places, which could have easily happened on a different day.
I may just add a second bankroll for when situations like this arise on weekends when I have time to look.
jpjpicks
03-06-2017, 02:42 PM
Well that sucked right off the bat but we got sam ,H to hit so lets roll some more back bankroll at $76.25
3-6-17
Prx
Race-6/#:4: $5 win $10 place $20 show. $35 bet
Tup
Race-5/#:7: $5 win,place $20 show $30 bet
Bankroll 11.25
jpjpicks
03-06-2017, 06:08 PM
Well today blows got something back from Tup race so the bankroll is at
$41.25 down -$58.75 see you tmr 3-7
jpjpicks
03-06-2017, 07:17 PM
3-7-17 here we go
$5w,p total -40.00
Prx
R5/#:1a:
R7/#:7:
R8/#:5:
R9/#:12:
BankRoll $1.25 after bets
jpjpicks
03-07-2017, 04:17 PM
Well hit one other 3scr bet $10 return +$48.00 plus scr,s +$30.00 plus +$1.25
Bankroll at $79.25 see you tmr
jpjpicks
03-08-2017, 10:59 AM
3-8-17 plays
Mvr
R2/#:4:
R6/#:1:
R7/#:2:
R8/#:3:
Tam
R4/#:2:
R7/#:8:
$3.00 wps on all bets $54. Bankroll $25.00
jpjpicks
03-08-2017, 03:45 PM
Ok todays picks suck big time so lets bailout at Penn tonight
Pen
Race3/#:4: $12 wp bankroll at $1.25
jpjpicks
03-08-2017, 09:31 PM
Yes penn gets me out total $52.80 plus that $1.25
Bankroll at $54.05 see you all tmr
jpjpicks
03-08-2017, 10:48 PM
3-9-17 plays I will be on the road so am going to do $2.00 place bets on all horses
Gp
R1/#7
R2/#4
R3/#3
R6/#1
R7/#4
R9/#2
R11/#3
Gg
R3/#6
R6/#5
R7/#1
Op
R2/#4
R6/#1
R8/#3
Pen
R1/#4
R2/#7
Fg
R1/#4
R2/#2
Tp
R1/#1
R2/#2
R5/#7
$2.00 place on all thats $40.00 bankroll at $14.05
jpjpicks
03-09-2017, 10:02 PM
Well for today after scrs we had 18 bets at $2.00 to place $34.00 we hit 8 of them $1.40,$1.20,$3.60,$.40,$1.80,$3.20,$3.40,$.60, +$15.60 total bets $34.00 return $31.60 profit +$15.60 -$2.40 final profit +$13.20 +$14.04
Bankroll at $27.60
jpjpicks
03-09-2017, 10:31 PM
3-10-17. One play
Penn
Race-1/#:2: $13 win,place
EMD4ME
03-10-2017, 08:00 AM
It took an insanely stupid and subtly terrible ride to have this horse snatch a loss from the joy of defeat.
New bankroll $1,500.97
Aqu parlay
$50 place 3 race 1 then
Place 1 race 2.
$50 win 3 (straight up, race #1).
Bet $100
I am starting to see that the number of "profitable" plays that I have available to me is dwindling. I've been in the midst of a rough patch where nothing seems to go right. The blended win/place/show winning percentage over the past couple weeks is barely larger than what I would expect for win bets, and the average payouts have been dismal too. What I don't know is if this is a standard losing streak and longer term I will see more profits and profitable plays, or if it is an adjustment down to my long-term results.
Either way, I have a new toy to play with. I have the ability to run my software step-by-step, and when I do that I can at one stage run a few formulas and see a data set that I am not capturing real time. That data set seems to be useful in reorganizing my contenders into a more accurate prediction of finish. I have used it a few times to put together superfecta tickets, and I can't help but wonder what the results would look like had I incorporated this new information from the beginning.
This will be a fairly major overhaul of my software, but with summer racing and all those tracks coming on-line soon, I would like to know whether continuing down this path is worth my time. So, I'll start with PARX. I'll take the time to convert that track, and if I see material improvement, I'll continue on.
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 03:23 PM
Bankroll at 1400.97
AQU Race5:
$10 Exacta Box 47 and 48
.50 super 478/478/478/all Cost $21
.50 super 478/478/all/478 Cost $21
.20 super 478/all/478/478 $8.40
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 03:29 PM
MInus $90.40
$1310.57 New roll
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 03:51 PM
MInus $90.40
$1310.57 New roll
Race 6 AQU, .10 part wheel box, 3 with 10 with 6 with all . Cost $19.20
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 04:00 PM
Race 6 AQU, .10 part wheel box, 3 with 10 with 6 with all . Cost $19.20
New roll $1,291.37 before following bet.
AQU Race 7: $100 parlay Place 1, Race 8 Show 1, Race 9 Place 10.
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 04:22 PM
New roll $1,291.37 before following bet.
AQU Race 7: $100 parlay Place 1, Race 8 Show 1, Race 9 Place 10.
Also, $25 win 9.
$.20 super 9/128/128/all $8.40
.20 9 /128/all/128 $8.40
.10 9 / all /128/128 $4.20
.30 128/9/128/all $12.60
.20 128/9/all/128 8.40
.10 all / 9/ 128/128
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 04:52 PM
New roll $1,120.17
AQU Race 8: $50 win 1. $30 ex 71 $20 ex 17 $20 Ex 51 $10 Ex 15
Bet $130
New roll $990.17
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 04:56 PM
R8 AQU $40 place 1, then place 10 in last. New roll $950.17
EMD4ME
03-11-2017, 05:07 PM
Cashed for $305 on win bet.
New roll of $1255.17 plus pending parlay of 10 to place ($118) in race 9.
jpjpicks
03-12-2017, 09:05 AM
3-12-17. Play
Tampa
Race-2/#:4: $22.00 place
EMD4ME
03-12-2017, 10:36 AM
Cashed for $305 on win bet.
New roll of $1255.17 plus pending parlay of 10 to place ($118) in race 9.
ROLL at $1255.17
AQU Race 1: $40 win 3
AQU Race 2: $60 Win 4. $10 EX BOX 34, $5 EX BOX 46 47 48
AQU Race 5: $80 Win 3, $120 Place 3.
AQU Race 7: $30 Win 1
AQU Race 8: $40 Win 9, $60 Place 9
AQU Race 9: $20 win 9
Bet $500
EMD4ME
03-12-2017, 03:19 PM
Also, Race 5. $30 EX 3/46 $20 46/3 Bet an additional $100
EMD4ME
03-12-2017, 05:24 PM
Finally, last race $55 win 9. AQU
EMD4ME
03-12-2017, 05:27 PM
Today, my day ended and died with Cancel's ride in the 2nd.
Got crushed, new bankroll, $600.17
jpjpicks
03-13-2017, 09:35 AM
Well Tampa race scr so today 3-13-17 am going to hand roll a place parlay
If the 1st one hit we r going to roll to the next one an so on
Prx
Race-2/#1
Race-3/#3
Wrd
Race-2/#6
Am going to bet the $22 place an try to keep it rolling
EMD4ME
03-13-2017, 03:52 PM
Today, my day ended and died with Cancel's ride in the 2nd.
Got crushed, new bankroll, $600.17
Sam Houston:
Pick 5 starting in race 7:
$1 1568/ 349 / 38/ 3 /2 9 10 Cost $72
Chalky sequence, just looking to get back on track.
$2 Pick 4 349/38/3/2910 Cost $36
Also, .20 super high 5 in last race.
2910/2910/2910/8/all $8.40
2910/2910/2910/all/8 $8.40
Total Bets: 124.80
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 02:52 PM
Sam Houston:
Pick 5 starting in race 7:
$1 1568/ 349 / 38/ 3 /2 9 10 Cost $72
Chalky sequence, just looking to get back on track.
$2 Pick 4 349/38/3/2910 Cost $36
Also, .20 super high 5 in last race.
2910/2910/2910/8/all $8.40
2910/2910/2910/all/8 $8.40
Total Bets: 124.80
$600.17 starting:
Lost it all in last leg. Got back $9.15 on 3 conso P5's and $2.40 on scratches.
Minus $113.25
New Roll: $486.92
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAM H 3/14/17
Race 5: Super High Five
.20 378/378/378/ 245610 / 245610 Cost $24
.40 8/37/37/245610/245610 Cost $16
.20 8/37/245610/37/245610 Cost $8
.20 8/7/2345610/2345610/2345610 Cost $24
Bet $72 New roll $414.92 (pending)
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 03:14 PM
Close but no cigar there...$414.92
Race 6: $5 tri box 134.
New Roll: $384.92
NorCalGreg
03-14-2017, 03:16 PM
Well Tampa race scr so today 3-13-17 am going to hand roll a place parlay
If the 1st one hit we r going to roll to the next one an so on
Prx
Race-2/#1
Race-3/#3
Wrd
Race-2/#6
Am going to bet the $22 place an try to keep it rolling
You still using Bet-Mix Jimmy?
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 03:50 PM
Close but no cigar there...$414.92
Race 6: $5 tri box 134.
New Roll: $384.92
SAM H Late P5
$.50 2 10/ 1/ 123568910 / 1/ 2678 Cost $32
$.20 Super 210/2567910/2567910/2567910 Cost $24
New Roll: $328.92 Off to shovel :bang::bang: I hate snow.
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 04:01 PM
SAM H Late P5
$.50 2 10/ 1/ 123568910 / 1/ 2678 Cost $32
$.20 Super 210/2567910/2567910/2567910 Cost $24
New Roll: $328.92 Off to shovel :bang::bang: I hate snow.
You blow a $2,000 bankroll in a matter of days...and you can't hand some poor soul a few bucks, so he can do the shoveling for you? :)
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 04:04 PM
[/COLOR]
You blow a $2,000 bankroll in a matter of days...and you can't hand some poor soul a few bucks, so he can do the shoveling for you? :)
I TRIED!!!!!! These kids aren't what they used to be :bang::bang:
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 04:19 PM
SAM H Late P5
$.50 2 10/ 1/ 123568910 / 1/ 2678 Cost $32
$.20 Super 210/2567910/2567910/2567910 Cost $24
New Roll: $328.92 Off to shovel :bang::bang: I hate snow.
SAM Late pick 4: 1 / 123568910/ 1/ 2678 for $1 Cost $32
Sam R 8: $10 EX 16 $6 EX 13
$2 TRI 1/36/36
$1 TRI 1/6/238
$1 TRI 1/238/6
$1 SUPER 1/6/238/238
$1 SUPER 1/238/6/238
$1 SUPER 1/36/36/258
Bet $76 New Roll: $252.92
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 04:30 PM
There's no better feeling than being home and leaving the rail open at the 1/8 pole :bang::lol:
Only to come back (after being passed) and look like you got it, only to lose a head bob AT A track that had a BS photo just a few days ago.
Still love this game :D
P.S. Last piece of irony...In the BS photo race, I had the 2 and they put the 1 up. This race, I had the 1 and the 2 won the bob.
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 04:49 PM
$252.92
SAM R 9:
$.10 SUPER 12568910/12568910/3/ALL $29.40
$.10 SUPER 8/1256910/3/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/8/3/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 8/3/1256910/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/3/8/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 8/1256910/ALL/3 $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/8/ALL/3 $4.20
$54.60 BET
New roll $198.32
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 04:56 PM
$252.92
SAM R 9:
$.10 SUPER 12568910/12568910/3/ALL $29.40
$.10 SUPER 8/1256910/3/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/8/3/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 8/3/1256910/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/3/8/all $4.20
$.10 SUPER 8/1256910/ALL/3 $4.20
$.10 SUPER 1256910/8/ALL/3 $4.20
$54.60 BET
New roll $198.32
10 2 8 3 no dice.
$198.32 left. Should we start a new thread on how to survive with $198.32 ? :pound::pound::pound::lol::lol::lol:
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:07 PM
10 2 8 3 no dice.
$198.32 left. Should we start a new thread on how to survive with $198.32 ? :pound::pound::pound::lol::lol::lol:
Bet the $198.32 on the Pistons +8 against the Cavs tonight...no matter WHAT ReplayRandall says.
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:10 PM
Bet the $198.32 on the Pistons +8 against the Cavs tonight...no matter WHAT ReplayRandall says.
I don't bet sports. (I set up another joke for you...;) :lol:)
Exotic1
03-14-2017, 05:13 PM
I don't bet sports. (I set up another joke for you...;) :lol:)
We only play games we're "good" at. Yep, funny stuff sometimes.
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:17 PM
Alright $198.32 left. Let's go.
Sam R 10: $25 ex box 1-2 $50
$10 EX 12 with 45 $40
$5 EX 12 with 7 $10
$1 Super 12 with 12 with 457 with 34567 $24
.50 Super 12 with 12 with 36 with 34567 $8
$.40 Super 12 with 457 with 12457 with 1234567 $27.80
$.20 Super 12 with 457 with 36 with 1234567 $9.60
$.40 Super 12 with 36 with 12 with 1234567 $6.40
$.50 Super 457 with 12 with 12 with 1234567 $12
$.20 super 457 with 2 with 34567 with 1234567 $9.60
Bet $197.40 keep the change. Bankroll dead if done here.
Racetrack Playa
03-14-2017, 05:19 PM
WOW the :8: amazing
ultracapper
03-14-2017, 05:23 PM
Too bad the title of the thread isn't "Big Bankroll Burn Challenge". Got some prime examples in here.
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:27 PM
The $2,000 bankroll ain't what it used to be...
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:34 PM
Too bad the title of the thread isn't "Big Bankroll Burn Challenge". Got some prime examples in here.
I will defend myself.......Wasn't going to but glad you posted that.
I seem to always forget this thread when I'm playing for real. Sat night, I crushed Sam with little money.
Bet about $250 in the pick 5, hit repeat 8x. Paid $158 or so. I honestly forget about this thread most often. What can I say......
19566
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:39 PM
19567
I bet a really small P4 at SA Sat as well against Mashocistic. Got back $2600 on 2 small tickets.
Again, I always find a way to post the losing tickets in this thread. There's just not enough time to post all real plays :lol: :(
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:42 PM
The $2,000 bankroll ain't what it used to be...
I think you were being sarcastic (doesn't matter either way) but I will add, one should have an ample bankroll. I know if I don't have $10,000 socked away for horse play these days, I don't like it. You can't be afraid and you can't ever worry about having bucks to play. In the super exotics, you can go a loooong time losing but 1 or 2 plays knock out a months worth of losing and put you ahead a month.
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:44 PM
Anyway, with EMD coming up and real racing in NY about to start in 6 weeks, thankfully I'm out of this thread!
Between EMD and BEL, I won't have time to post any more losers anyway :pound:
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:47 PM
19567
I bet a really small P4 at SA Sat as well against Mashocistic. Got back $2800 on 2 small tickets.
Again, I always find a way to post the losing tickets in this thread. There's just not enough time to post all real plays :lol: :(
Are you sure that you don't harbor some repressed hostility for us...and want to bankrupt us?
Just kidding, EMD...:p
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:51 PM
Are you sure that you don't harbor some repressed hostility for us...and want to bankrupt us?
Just kidding, EMD...:p
:pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::lol::lol::lol:
You just made me pull my other weak hamstring and choke on my lunch :pound:
For the record, I like and admire you ALL. I even miss Dahoss :)
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:51 PM
I think you were being sarcastic (doesn't matter either way) but I will add, one should have an ample bankroll. I know if I don't have $10,000 socked away for horse play these days, I don't like it. You can't be afraid and you can't ever worry about having bucks to play. In the super exotics, you can go a loooong time losing but 1 or 2 plays knock out a months worth of losing and put you ahead a month.
That's what I meant. No matter how good you are...you can't show this type of aggression with a $2,000 bankroll.
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:53 PM
:pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::lol::lol::lol:
You just made me pull my other weak hamstring and choke on my lunch :pound:
For the record, I like and admire you ALL. I even miss Dahoss :)
The sign of a true gambler. He eats lunch at 6 pm. :ThmbUp:
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:56 PM
The sign of a true gambler. He eats lunch at 6 pm. :ThmbUp:
:headbanger::headbanger:
What can I say, got up at 1 PM (I didn't feel like watching that stupid white stuff come down). Messed around with some Sam and watched NYRA replays all day. No time to eat :D
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 05:57 PM
That's what I meant. No matter how good you are...you can't show this type of aggression with a $2,000 bankroll.
Agreed, 100%.
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 05:57 PM
:headbanger::headbanger:
What can I say, got up at 1 PM (I didn't feel like watching that stupid white stuff come down). Messed around with some Sam and watched NYRA replays all day. No time to eat :D
I understand completely. I haven't yet had my first meal of the day.
NorCalGreg
03-14-2017, 06:32 PM
I've honestly NEVER seen anyone--playing with a "mythical bankroll" ....ever win. Never. Myself included.
It's just not the same, playing with monopoly money...as it is with your own hard-earned money.
You take chances you would never take--even subconsciously -you may not even realize it.
VigorsTheGrey
03-14-2017, 06:37 PM
I almost always play with a $200 bankroll...
...I know most of you would sneeze at that amount but I'm a small fry in a big pond with lots of northern pike and beluga whales swimming around....
...I simply don't have the big bankroll to play with...so to blow $2000 over a weekend would shut me down for at least 6 months....
...that is why EMD is not a real racing god for me because he could never do what he does everyday with just $200 to play with...
...I know that a small bankroll is very often a losing bankroll as CJ has said....but most of the time I come out ahead by a few bucks anyway....
...the key for me is HOW MANY BILLS DO I PAY WITH MY WINNINGS EACH AND EVERY MONTH...? AND how much of my winnings become churn tomorrow....?
Have I really won anything in the end, if I have nothing to show for all my time invested....?
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 06:55 PM
I almost always play with a $200 bankroll...
...I know most of you would sneeze at that amount but I'm a small fry in a big pond with lots of northern pike and beluga whales swimming around....
...I simply don't have the big bankroll to play with...so to blow $2000 over a weekend would shut me down for at least 6 months....
...that is why EMD is not a real racing god for me because he could never do what he does everyday with just $200 to play with...
...I know that a small bankroll is very often a losing bankroll as CJ has said....but most of the time I come out ahead by a few bucks anyway....
...the key for me is HOW MANY BILLS DO I PAY WITH MY WINNINGS EACH AND EVERY MONTH...? AND how much of my winnings become churn tomorrow....?
Have I really won anything in the end, if I have nothing to show for all my time invested....?
1) I've turned $40 into $5000 1000X in my life, in 1 day.
2) Turned $2 into $12,000 in 3 days
3) With that said, I've lost $10,000 in 1 day. $5,000 in 1 day. Aggressiveness gets you both ways.
4) How do you think I handle a million bucks? Not by having some inheritance, or allowance or unlimited wish well. I handle it by turning small money into thousands, churn churn churn churn, you get a million in handle. That's why I always said, I'm nobody. A million is nothing.
5) I'm with you on most points. If you can't turn small money into a real bankroll, you will crash and burn as having a BIG Bankroll only makes you a BIGGER loser.
6) I personally like to "bank" money (not in a bank necessarily LOL) after a decent hit. I mentally try and psyche myself that I need to be super sharp and near broke as the bankroll fattens, WITHOUT playing tight. If that makes sense.
7) looking at those wagers in this thread, that's not how I play. I was action playing, admittedly. Even more admittedly, I wouldn't wager on half those races in real life.
Fascinating discussion, want to talk more about this but have to do remaining shoveling :bang:
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 06:57 PM
I've honestly NEVER seen anyone--playing with a "mythical bankroll" ....ever win. Never. Myself included.
It's just not the same, playing with monopoly money...as it is with your own hard-earned money.
You take chances you would never take--even subconsciously -you may not even realize it.
First time I tried and crashed. Forgot to post real plays, posted some races I didn't play in real life.
I don't think I'll do it a second time, UNLESS, I just copy and paste my real wagers.
I admittedly had less discipline in this thread than I do in real life. Learn and live.
ReplayRandall
03-14-2017, 07:09 PM
1) That's why I always said, I'm nobody. A million is nothing.
A $Mil is $4,000 a day churn, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year (2weeks off for vacation)....At 7% rebate, if you break even betting, you make $70K. Don't act like it's nothing.
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 07:41 PM
A $Mil is $4,000 a day churn, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year (2weeks off for vacation)....At 7% rebate, if you break even betting, you make $70K. Don't act like it's nothing.
My friend, 3 guys that I sit next to, make me look like a midget (and I don't mind at all-we all have our comfort levels). If you count Belmont's room, make that 6.
I respect them a lot and I know my tiny little place (compared to real large fish), that's all I'm trying to say.
In terms of ADWs, when talking to management that actually cares and net profit, yes, 1MM is a decent amount.
VigorsTheGrey
03-14-2017, 07:44 PM
I guess I'm missing the boat on the rebates shops....I've read many times that this is how the whales make their dough....by betting huge amounts over the year and having a positive ROI....Doing this would bring my game to a whole new level of play...is this really how most WINNERS are doing the game...?
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 07:50 PM
I guess I'm missing the boat on the rebates shops....I've read many times that this is how the whales make their dough....by betting huge amounts over the year and having a positive ROI....Doing this would bring my game to a whole new level of play...is this really how most WINNERS are doing the game...?
If you're playing without any rebates, you are just playing behind the 8 ball.
What is wrong, even if you're wagering $100,000 a year, with an extra $500 a month in rebates?
How many times will the rebates replenish your bankroll, how many times will the rebates give you a boost of confidence? Think about those aspects as well.
ReplayRandall
03-14-2017, 07:56 PM
My friend, 3 guys that I sit next to, make me look like a midget (and I don't mind at all-we all have our comfort levels). If you count Belmont's room, make that 6.
I respect them a lot and I know my tiny little place (compared to real large fish), that's all I'm trying to say.
In terms of ADWs, when talking to management that actually cares and net profit, yes, 1MM is a decent amount.
EMD, you and I get along, so don't take this personal when I tell you that no one reading your post gives a damn about the 3 guys you sit next to, and you know exactly what I mean......You should have just said, "yes, 1MM is a decent amount" and left it at that.....I don't know about you sometimes, you say things that you really shouldn't, but then you wouldn't be so "entertaining", I guess.
thaskalos
03-14-2017, 07:59 PM
If you're playing without any rebates, you are just playing behind the 8 ball.
What is wrong, even if you're wagering $100,000 a year, with an extra $500 a month in rebates?
How many times will the rebates replenish your bankroll, how many times will the rebates give you a boost of confidence? Think about those aspects as well.
The rebates are GREAT. I wagered $2,476 yesterday with Twinspires...and today I was able to redeem my points for $2.47 in cold hard cash. And they CONGRATULATED me on top of it. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
EMD4ME
03-14-2017, 08:00 PM
EMD, you and I get along, so don't take this personal when I tell you that no one reading your post gives a damn about the 3 guys you sit next to, and you know exactly what I mean......You should have just said, "yes, 1MM is a decent amount" and left it at that.....I don't know about you sometimes, you say things that you really shouldn't, but then you wouldn't be so "entertaining", I guess.
I entertain you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c
:pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::lol:
Racetrack Playa
03-14-2017, 08:07 PM
:)
Funny Stuff, very entertaining
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEn_nYzvG78
ultracapper
03-15-2017, 03:46 PM
I will defend myself.......Wasn't going to but glad you posted that.
I seem to always forget this thread when I'm playing for real. Sat night, I crushed Sam with little money.
Bet about $250 in the pick 5, hit repeat 8x. Paid $158 or so. I honestly forget about this thread most often. What can I say......
19566
I'm always thinking I'll post a series of plays, but seldom do. Playing the races isn't real conducive to updating a forum while you're getting your 'capping done.
10 2 8 3 no dice.
$198.32 left. Should we start a new thread on how to survive with $198.32 ? :pound::pound::pound::lol::lol::lol:
That's my EVERY POST! :lol:
For the record, and people can do it however they like, I never intended for this thread to be a "post your plays before the race happens" sort of thread. I enjoyed that EMD did it that way, but I don't feel it is necessary.
What I am doing is posting my journey from having finally "completed" my software after years of off and on work, to learning how to profit with it. I am interested in how people approach the game - the thought process and/or mechanical processes employed - so invited others to join in on the fun.
To me, the most important aspect of the game is discipline. I also believe it is the most difficult aspect of the game. How many people TRULY know exactly how well this or that angle/method/hunch works over the long term? My guess is not very many. I think most shoot from the hip and make assumptions based upon scant data and murky memories. I also believe most people bet way too big for their bankroll. Personally, I don't want to lose and not know why, so I'm working on discipline as a major component of my attempt at profitability. I am attempting to do that by programming my thoughts and letting my computer read my mind and take emotion out of the equation.
That's really what this thread is. Do you have a method that you believe is capable of growing a small bankroll into a large bankroll? Do you have the discipline to allow growth to happen? Without giving away trade secrets, what can you teach us about your approach to help us improve?
Having said all that, I see the flaw in my vision of the thread, and EMD had it right in what he did. I know I am honest about my performance, but I can't expect anybody else to believe me. I'll do my best to post in real time going forward.
All THAT said, changes are afoot for me, based on cold hard data. That will be a separate post in this thread.
thaskalos
03-15-2017, 04:49 PM
For the record, and people can do it however they like, I never intended for this thread to be a "post your plays before the race happens" sort of thread. I enjoyed that EMD did it that way, but I don't feel it is necessary.
What I am doing is posting my journey from having finally "completed" my software after years of off and on work, to learning how to profit with it. I am interested in how people approach the game - the thought process and/or mechanical processes employed, so invited others to join in on the fun.
To me, the most important aspect of the game is discipline. I also believe it is the most difficult aspect of the game. How many people TRULY know exactly how well this or that angle/method/hunch works over the long term? My guess is not very many. I think most shoot from the hip and make assumptions based upon scant data and murky memories. I also believe most people bet way too big for their bankroll. Personally, I don't want to lose and not know why, so I'm working on discipline as a major component of my attempt at profitability. I am attempting to do that by programming my thoughts and letting my computer read my mind and take emotion out of the equation.
That's really what this thread is. Do you have a method that you believe is capable of growing a small bankroll into a large bankroll? Do you have the discipline to allow growth to happen? Without giving away trade secrets, what can you teach us about your approach to help us improve?
Having said all that, I see the flaw in my vision of the thread, and EMD had it right in what he did. I know I am honest about my performance, but I can't expect anybody else to believe me. I'll do my best to post in real time going forward.
All THAT said, changes are afoot for me, based on cold hard data. That will be a separate post in this thread.
There is always a certain amount of risk when we project a handicapping method's "profitability" going forward...especially in a dynamic game like horse racing. What worked for the past 3 years or so may not work in year 4 and beyond; such is the level of "uncertainty" that the horseplayer must grapple with.
There is no great "secret" to growing a small bankroll over time. The main thing, IMO, is that the starting bankroll should not prevent the bettor from carrying out his initial wagering plan.
For instance:
If you are starting with a $100 bankroll and the intention to attack the exactas...then the plan is doomed from the start. Such a limited starting bankroll does not provide protection against the added risk that the exacta brings along. If trifectas are to be included...then the bankroll demands increase further still.
"Boredom" is another big reason that small bankrolls fail to grow...IMO. Let's say that the player puts up a $200 bankroll...and starts betting $3 to win on his selections. He makes 5 bets a day...and is confident that his system/method will provide him with a long-term ROI of about 1.10. His intention is to slowly increase his betting amount as his bankroll gets bigger. After 10 days of betting, he checks his records and finds that he has invested $150 overall, and has showed an overall profit of $15...with the bankroll now standing at $215. An average profit of $1.50 a day. Seeing this, he wonders if he is really just wasting his time. But he is afraid to commit more money to the bankroll and increase his wagers...because his fear of loss is a greater emotion than his desire for gain. So...he stays with the $3 wagers, until the inevitable losing streak comes about...and he now finds the bankroll below the starting level. Now...he is GLAD that he didn't increase the betting amount earlier...but a doubt is now creeping in about the overall profitability of his handicapping method.
I could go on...but entire BOOKS could be written about the "mental side" of wagering...and how to stick to our original plan in the face of adversity. To talk about it is a lot easier than to actually do it.
ultracapper
03-15-2017, 05:37 PM
I've always questioned playing one way to build a bankroll, and then once it's built, obviously by a profitable method, the player then changes strategy. If the bankroll building method works, why not stick with it? If the method that will be implemented when the bankroll is funded is profitable, why not build the bankroll with that method?
I mean, seriously, I know the answer to this, it comes down to the risk you can effectively manage with the initial, smaller investment. But it's always food for thought for those trying to become profitable in this game.
I'm going to start playing superfectas, and not playing WPS bets.
Of course, I just played my first one and didn't post it here first, and it should be a pretty nice one in the 4th at GP:headbanger:. Prices pending.
Basically, in re-running my software with my new factor that I talked about earlier in the thread, I found that it served to confirm the factors that I was already using. It didn't really improve results. And, I see no evidence that my win, place or show bets will turn a profit long term.
However, my factors do rank contenders very well, in that my #1 contender wins more often than my #2 contender and so on. The software output also gives me separation in abilities between the horses. So, I thought it may be nice to use in figuring out superfecta bet structures. That's where I am now. I've goofed around with these new numbers a little, and it seems to work pretty well. It does at this point require some manual labor, so not quite black boxy. I will work on black boxing it, but I don't know whether that will be possible or not.
Anyway, I'm limiting my wagers to 120 total bets per superfecta, or $12 for a 10cent bet. I have no idea what my bankroll starting point should be, so I settled on $500 since that is a nice round number. I'll be playing only races where my favorite horse is 3/1 or better, and in fields of at least 7 horses.
My first play just netted me over $658. I may quit my job today:lol:
Otealfr
03-17-2017, 10:03 AM
Everybody need some kind.....
:D Hello!
Everybody need some kind of help at one time or another in one or more subjects.
I read your adds and let them be.
If I can find the help I am looking for I might even become a financial sponsor.
Here is my predicament:
Does anybody keep track of largest average payoff race tracks in North America or know anyone else that does?. I have a method that picks a lot of long-shots but I need to find out which tracks have the highest so I could use my method there.
Right now I am betting OP and getting excellent results:
7 days, 49 races, 13 wins with a 69 % profit on flat bets!!!!!
But OP is a short meeting and I need new venues to apply my trade.
Thanks and God bless you all. :D
jpjpicks
03-17-2017, 11:09 AM
hello All
Well lets try again down $100 add $100 todays plays $5.00 place on all
AQ
R7/#:8:
GP
R2/#:4:
R10/#:5:
OP
R6/#:3:
R7/#:6:
HAW
R8/#:7:
LRL
R3/#:6:
TAM
R7/#:6:
SA
R3/#:6:
TOTAL $45.00
jpjpicks
03-18-2017, 09:38 AM
3/17/17 one scr bet $40.00 return
$28.75 -$11.25 bankroll at $88.75 (lose -$111.75)
--------------
3-18-17 plays
MVR
R1/#:1:
PRX
R10/#:1:
AQ
R7/#:3:
CT
R7/#:3:
OP
R9/#:1:
TP
R7/#:8:
$2.00 WPS on All
total $36.00
jpjpicks
03-19-2017, 10:57 AM
3-18-17 sucked bet $28.00 return $11.80 -$16.20 bankroll at $72.55 (total lose $127.95)
------------
Today we are going to bet the Sartin Methodology way that's 2 horses in one race the reason y is in Betmix you have the Top 10 factors in every race you do get 6 or 7 out of 10 that are speed factors now you have the good races we need the top-2 picks to bet so we go to Rangefinder to get them ... So here is Aqu, Op
-------
Aqu
R2/#4-5 6 of 10
R3/#2-4. 6 of 10
R4/#1-7. 6 of 10
R6/#6-2. 6 of 10
R8/#6-3. 6 of 10
Op
R2/#4-7. 6 of 10
R3/#2-4 7 of 10
R4/#6-2. 7 of 10
R5/#2-1. 7 of 10
R6/#9-10 7 of 10
$2.00 win/ $4.00 place on each
Pretty good start for the new strategy, and I have to admit, as much of a grinder as I tend to be, these superfectas are a lot of fun! Lots of losing, but the wins are much more exciting than a $9 winner:headbanger:
My numbers seem to be working pretty well so far. Generally, it seems that either the race goes according to plan and my pick to win either wins or runs really well and the horses I toss out run terribly, or I am just wrong and my pick finishes last and my toss outs win. It is nice to lose a race when the entire plan falls apart and not lose because my last place horse finishes 4th:)
Short week 1 closes with 29 wagers placed, 5 wins and a profit of $738.87.
Things to work on: I feel like I'm gambling too much, playing races that are a close fit, but not a perfect(ish) fit. I'll be a little more discriminating next week. Clearly, with 29 wagers placed already, I don't need bad bet action.
thaskalos
03-19-2017, 10:17 PM
Pretty good start for the new strategy, and I have to admit, as much of a grinder as I tend to be, these superfectas are a lot of fun! Lots of losing, but the wins are much more exciting than a $9 winner:headbanger:
My numbers seem to be working pretty well so far. Generally, it seems that either the race goes according to plan and my pick to win either wins or runs really well and the horses I toss out run terribly, or I am just wrong and my pick finishes last and my toss outs win. It is nice to lose a race when the entire plan falls apart and not lose because my last place horse finishes 4th:)
Short week 1 closes with 29 wagers placed, 5 wins and a profit of $738.87.
Things to work on: I feel like I'm gambling too much, playing races that are a close fit, but not a perfect(ish) fit. I'll be a little more discriminating next week. Clearly, with 29 wagers placed already, I don't need bad bet action.
Was your big hit a "perfect(ish) fit"...or a speculative wager?
My own experience tells me that, in the superfecta, the "iffy" bets bring the best rewards.
Was your big hit a "perfect(ish) fit"...or a speculative wager?
My own experience tells me that, in the superfecta, the "iffy" bets bring the best rewards.
It was the perfect fit, but there was a lot of value in my horses that particular play.
Track Collector
03-30-2017, 02:44 AM
Everybody need some kind.....
:D Hello!
Everybody need some kind of help at one time or another in one or more subjects.
I read your adds and let them be.
If I can find the help I am looking for I might even become a financial sponsor.
Here is my predicament:
Does anybody keep track of largest average payoff race tracks in North America or know anyone else that does?. I have a method that picks a lot of long-shots but I need to find out which tracks have the highest so I could use my method there.
Right now I am betting OP and getting excellent results:
7 days, 49 races, 13 wins with a 69 % profit on flat bets!!!!!
But OP is a short meeting and I need new venues to apply my trade.
Thanks and God bless you all. :D
Because I have nothing better to do at 2:00 a.m. :), listed below is the type of info I think you are looking for. The info is from my year 2016 database, and takes into consideration only races with 7 or more starters. The average $2 payouts listed are for general consideration only, as a more realistic comparison between each needs to reflect the average field at the specified tracks as well as the track's Win Pool takeout rate. Also keep in mind that the smaller the number of winners in the sample size, the less reliable the average $2 payout number is. Data is of course also subject to change from one year to the next.
The format is Track // Sample Size // $2 Payout:
Alb // 241 // 13.08
AP // 402 // 12.11
Aqu // 568 // 13.55
ArP // 172 // 11.19
AsD // 160 // 11.54
Bel // 616 // 13.90
BTP // 482 // 11.57
Cby // 395 // 11.84
CD // 572 // 12.81
Cls // 74 // 9.58
GPW (Crc) // 289 // 12.83
CT // 1042 // 12.86
DeD // 793 // 13.84
Del // 411 // 11.90
Dmr // 366 // 13.42
ElP // 205 // 12.29
EmD // 417 // 12.31
EvD // 578 // 13.02
Fer // 17 // 13.31
FE // 157 // 11.76
FG // 650 // 13.34
FL // 590 // 12.27
FMT // 67 // 10.24
Fno // 22 // 15.52
Fon // 215 // 12.07
FP // 146 // 9.48
GG // 621 // 13.37
GP // 1718 // 13.65
Haw // 386 // 11.73
Hou // 234 // 14.24
HP // 130 // 11.34
Hst // 221 // 13.83
Ind // 770 // 14.70
KD // 49 // 14.20
Kee // 246 // 14.49
LaD // 455 // 12.88
LA // 205 // 12.70
LRC // 161 // 13.52
Lrl // 1023 // 14.63
LS // 333 // 11.27
Med // 67 // 16.16
Mnr // 914 // 11.72
Mth // 361 // 10.84
MVR // 714 // 13.18
NP // 286 // 12.33
OP // 482 // 14.81
Pen //1018 // 12.48
Prx // 1067 // 14.13
PID // 450 // 13.96
Pim // 207 // 12.56
Pln // 87 // 12.89
PM // 248 // 13.16
PrM // 355 // 11.73
Ret // 180 // 11.88
RP // 486 // 13.60
Rui // 82 // 10.69
Sac // 22 // 10.44
Sar // 278 // 14.18
SA // 790 // 13.67
SRP // 131 // 11.18
SR // 45 // 12.30
Suf // 46 // 14.58
Sun // 331 // 12.90
Tam // 771 // 13.67
Tdn // 551 // 11.53
Tim // 36 // 8.82
TP // 508 // 13.29
TuP // 739 // 11.25
WO // 970 // 14.07
WRD // 202 // 11.99
Zia // 246 // 12.01
...
ultracapper
03-31-2017, 12:09 AM
I'm surprised LRC is $13+. It always seems so chalky. It just goes to show that hard data is much better in measuring things than perception is.
vBulletin® v3.8.9, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.