Santa Anita-my fair oddsline for Thursday 10/27

[Poindexter]

Note x(50) means I make a horse 50-1 but will not play it at any price.

Race 1) see note below.
1) 4
2) 2
3) 10
4) 3
5) 5
6) 30 (barn change so keep an eye on toteboard)

this adds up to about 107 so line needs to modified. I never got back to it. Too late now.

race 2)

1) 4
2)6/5
3) 25
4) 4
5) 8

Race 3)

1) x(50)
2) 8
3) 6
4) scr
5) 6
6) x(100)
7) 3
8) 3
9) 20

Race 4)

1) 20
2) 5/2
3) 3
4) 6
5) 6
6) 10

Race 5)

1) 20
2) 20
3) 4
4) x(30)
5) 6
6) 2.5
7) 5
8) 12

Race 6)

1) scr
2) 15
3) 8
4) 50
5) 2.5
6) 10
7) 30
8) 8
9) 3
10) x(50)

Race 7

1) 25
2) 15
3) 20
4) 9/2
5) 25
6) 3
7) 10
8) 5/2

no line for race 8

[FakeNameChanged]

Most track's ML's add up to 120+. Laurel has had several lately that have added up 150 -180. Ridiculous if someone is using that as some base starting point. How tough is it for the odds maker to set up a quick Excel program to tell him to adjust his line?(rhetorical)

[VigorsTheGrey]

Most track's ML's add up to 120+. Laurel has had several lately that have added up 150 -180. Ridiculous if someone is using that as some base starting point. How tough is it for the odds maker to set up a quick Excel program to tell him to adjust his line?(rhetorical)

What's the theory in a nutshell behind odds adding up to 120? What is the correct number? Shouldn't each race add up to the same since all are related parimutuelly...that is, as one goes up or down the others fluctuate to reflect that change?

[FakeNameChanged]

What's the theory in a nutshell behind odds adding up to 120? What is the correct number? Shouldn't each race add up to the same since all are related parimutuelly...that is, as one goes up or down the others fluctuate to reflect that change?
No theory, just bad math, or program oddsmakers don't understand that the field in a race has a 100% probability of winning the race. With rounding error and sticking to the accepted ML odds, I don't have a problem if the program adds up to 105 or 110 though.
I have a recent program at Belmont or Laurel where 7 of 9 horses in a race were 5-1 or less.

[upthecreek]

[QUOTE=VigorsTheGrey]What's the theory in a nutshell behind odds adding up to 120? What is the correct number? Shouldn't each race add up to the same since all are related parimutuelly...that is, as one goes up or down the others fluctuate to reflect that change?[/QUOTE






The morning line is constructed giving the horses roughly 120 percent odds. Remember in our Kindergarten class we discussed the track’s commission fees? This is the reason that the odds aren’t simply 100 percent; the track needs to take its profits off the top.

[NorCalGreg]

The morning line is constructed giving the horses roughly 120 percent odds. Remember in our Kindergarten class we discussed the track’s commission fees? This is the reason that the odds aren’t simply 100 percent; the track needs to take its profits off the top.

Did you go to reform school?

[upthecreek]

The morning line is constructed giving the horses roughly 120 percent odds. Remember in our Kindergarten class we discussed the track’s commission fees? This is the reason that the odds aren’t simply 100 percent; the track needs to take its profits off the top.

Did you go to reform school?
YES

[NorCalGreg]

YES


The only thing...and I mean the ONLY thing I remember from kindergarten is I stuck a bobby pin into a live electrical outlet to see what would happen.

....never did that again :confused:

[upthecreek]

The only thing...and I mean the ONLY thing I remember from kindergarten is I stuck a bobby pin into a live electrical outlet to see what would happen.

....never did that again :confused:



That explains everything :lol:

[FakeNameChanged]

The morning line is constructed giving the horses roughly 120 percent odds. Remember in our Kindergarten class we discussed the track’s commission fees? This is the reason that the odds aren’t simply 100 percent; the track needs to take its profits off the top.

Did you go to reform school?

More like Uptheriver High School where he participated on the skim team.

[upthecreek]

http://www.horseracinghottie.com/school/the-morning-line

[lamboguy]

from past experience the best time to use an oddsline based on pace is on big stakes days like the Breeders Cup and other stakes where you can say that most horses belong in the race. it really can work out excellent and you can go very deep using multiple selections. its the only way i know of to play those races in the long run. on regular day to day races you can find this method a bit challenging. you are almost better off betting on the trainers that are over 20% win rate and just bet the highest odds of those guys. there are numerous occasions where an 8% trainer has a horse in the race that looks the best and they just hardly ever win, and get bet like they should.